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HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Danny Information from NHC Advisory 10, 5:00 PM EDT Thursday August 20, 2015 Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph and this general motion is expected to continue into Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, but a weakening trend is expected to begin after that. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 80 mph Position Relative to 1030 miles E of the Lesser Speed: (category 1) Land: Antilles Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 990 mb Coordinates: 13.0 N, 45.7 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 60 miles Bearing/Speed: WNW or 295 degrees at 10 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary The current NHC forecast map (below left) shows Danny moving toward the Lesser Antilles over the next few days at hurricane strength and then weakening to a tropical storm on Sunday. The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC’s forecast track and shows Danny maintaining category 1 hurricane strength through Sunday, with 74 – 95 mph winds, and then weakening to a tropical storm by Tuesday. To illustrate the uncertainty in Danny’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray. Forecast Track for Hurricane Danny Forecast Windfield for Hurricane Danny (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 12:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. Pittsburgh Washington D.C. Cincinnati US ! D Trop Dep Ï TD TS !S Ï Trop Storm Cat 1 !1 Ï Cat 1 Nassau Havana TropicTropic ofof CancerCancer MX CU Santo Domingo DO Port-au-PrinceSan Juan Kingston 08-25 08-24 HN 08-23 Fort-De-France 08-22 NI Castries 08-21 Managua Willemstad Caracas 08-20 CR CR Maracaibo Port0 of Spain250 500 1,000 San Jose CO Miles PA VEVE PA Panama GY GY © Copyright 2015 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled Hazard and damage potential maps produced from third party sources and we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general guidance only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in by Willis are based on numerical modeling connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation. of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis”). Willis is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a re presentation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 1 of 2 Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no coastal watches or warnings currently in effect for Danny. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2015 Atlantic Season to Date 2015 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2015 Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2015 2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 8/20/15) 4 1 0 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2015 2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 8/20/14) 2 2 0 8 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2015 CSU season forecasts 4 TS Danny 8 2 1 TS Claudette (Colorado State University at August 4,‘15) TS Bill 2015 NOAA season forecasts HU Danny 6-10 1-4 0-1 STS Ana (August 6, 2015) 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2015 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Danny is the fourth named storm and first hurricane of the 2015 The graph above shows 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw only two named storms by average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It August 19, but both were hurricanes. shows, for example, that Danny became the first hurricane of the season on August 20, which is about average for the season’s first hurricane. It also shows that the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average are two areas with tropical cyclone formation potential, both remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Aug 20 indicated with a yellow X and both with less than 40% chance of is 85% for all hurricanes and 88% for major hurricanes. developing within the next 48 hours. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on August 20, 2015 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100% 48% 80% 36% 60% 24% 40% 12% 20% Average Daily Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier 7760 France Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55435 [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 Page 2 of 2 .
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