65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Miami, Florida February 28 - March 3, 2011 Hurricane Earl:September 2, 2010 Ocean and Atmospheric Influences on Tropical Cyclone Predictions: Challenges and Recent Progress S E S S Session 2 I The 2010 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review O N 2 The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Extremely Active but no U.S. Hurricane Landfalls Eric Blake and John L. Beven II ([email protected]) NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was quite active, with 19 named storms, 12 of which became hurricanes and 5 of which reached major hurricane intensity. These totals are well above the long-term normals of about 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Although the 2010 season was considerably busier than normal, no hurricanes struck the United States. This was the most active season on record in the Atlantic that did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, and was also the second year in a row without a hurricane striking the U.S. coastline. A persistent trough along the east coast of the United States steered many of the hurricanes out to sea, while ridging over the central United States kept any hurricanes over the western part of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico farther south over Central America and Mexico. The most significant U.S. impacts occurred with Tropical Storm Hermine, which brought hurricane-force wind gusts to south Texas along with extremely heavy rain, six fatalities, and about $240 million dollars of damage. Hurricane Earl was responsible for four deaths along the east coast of the United States due to very large swells, although the center of the hurricane stayed offshore. Session 2 – Page 1 Overview of the 2010 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season John P. Cangialosi and Stacy R. Stewart ([email protected] and [email protected] ) NOAA/NWS Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center The 2010 eastern North Pacific hurricane season was historically the least active on record. Only seven tropical storms developed, three of which became hurricanes. This is the lowest number of tropical storms and hurricanes observed since routine satellite reconnaissance of the basin began in 1971. Five tropical depressions formed this season that did not strengthen into tropical storms. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for 2010 was 46% of the long-term median. This is the third lowest ACE value, ahead of only the 2007 and 1997 seasons. Although the season was inactive, Tropical Storm Agatha was a high impact event causing 160 deaths and significant damage to portions of Central America and Mexico. This, along with other season highlights will be presented. In addition, some of the operational challenges encountered during the season will also be discussed. Session 2 – Page 2 2010 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Forecast Verification James L. Franklin ([email protected]) NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center A verification of official track, intensity, and genesis forecasts from the National Hurricane Center during the 2010 season will be presented, along with a discussion of the performance of the guidance models. Session 2 – Page 3 Review of the 2010 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season and Preliminary Verification Raymond Tanabe ([email protected]) Deputy Director, Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) In 2010, there was one tropical cyclone to have formed in or moved into the central Pacific. Tropical Storm Omeka originated as a subtropical storm west of the dateline and transitioned into a tropical cyclone just east of the dateline on 20 December 2010. CPHC will present an overview of Tropical Storm Omeka, the preliminary verification, changes for the 2011 season, and recent staff changes. Session 2 – Page 4 A Review of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center 2010 Tropical Cyclone Season Mr. Robert J. Falvey ([email protected]) Joint Typhoon Warning Center A review of the 2010 tropical cyclone activity with discussion of significant events for the JTWC Pacific and Indian Ocean forecast areas of responsibility will be presented. Session 2 – Page 5 53d Weather Reconnaissance Review of the 2010 Hurricane Season Capt Douglas Gautrau ([email protected]) 53d Weather Reconnaissance Squadron The 2010 hurricane season was a slightly below average year for the 53d Weather Reconnaissance Squadron with 981.4 total flying hours (compared to 1062 average flying hours per season over the previous 10 years). Although the storm season seemed relatively slow due to the lack of storms in the Gulf of Mexico, we stayed very busy flying the majority of our flights in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. We flew a total of 100 tasked missions meeting 97% of our requirements. Overall, the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer once again performed reasonably well on ten WC-130J aircraft, providing critical surface wind speed and rainfall rate data to the customer. Operator experience increased with the instrument and valuable inputs and improvements to instrument performance were accomplished. Session 2 – Page 6 NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) 2010 Seasonal Summary and Future Plans Jim McFadden, Nancy Ash, Jack Parrish, Paul Flaherty, A. Barry Damiano, Ian Sears, Jessica Williams, Richard Henning ([email protected]) NOAA Aircraft Operations Center After a relatively slow season in 2009, during which NOAA aircraft flew a total of 62 flights and 326 hrs, the 2010 season was a bit more active with its three hurricane aircraft, two WP-3Ds and the Gulfstream G-IV, flying 71 flights for 453 hours. These flights, in addition to storm flights, included trips for public awareness, such as the Gulf Coast Hurricane Awareness Tour and the Governor’s Hurricane Conference, test and calibration flights as well as several transit flights. Of significance during the 2010 season was the joint NASA, NOAA and NSF operation that utilized a number of aircraft from each of the Agencies in a study of tropical storm genesis and rapid intensification. In addition to NOAA’s three aircraft, NASA provided its DC-8, aWB-57 and Global Hawk. The NSF provided the Gulfstream G-V. These aircraft often flew coordinated patterns associated with tropical systems in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The three NOAA aircraft also obtained the most comprehensive data set on the development and decay of a tropical system when they flew Hurricane Earl practically from the cradle to the grave – from genesis to extra-tropical transition. AOC continues to upgrade its aircraft and instrumentation, and in 2011 expects to accomplish the following: • Complete the acceptance tests of the tail Doppler radar on the NOAA G-IV • Continue developing strategies for use of the new G-IV TDR in storm environment • Complete the avionics upgrade on N44RF, NOAA’s 3rd P-3 • Complete integration of new aircraft data system (AAMPS) on the NOAA P-3s • Complete installation of new AXBT receivers on both P-3s Session 2 – Page 7 S E S Session 3 S Observations and I Observing Strategies for Tropical Cyclones and O their Environment, Part 1 N 3 Microwave sounder observations during GRIP: Preliminary results Bjorn Lambrigtsen, Shannon Brown ([email protected]) Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology The High Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR), a microwave sounder similar to but more advanced than the AMSU sounders now operating on multiple satellites, was deployed on the Global Hawk unmanned aircraft during the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) hurricane field campaign during August and September 2010. HAMSR was developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory more than ten years ago and has been flown in several hurricane field campaigns. It was recently upgraded with the latest technology and is now the most sensitive and accurate sensor of its kind. Using observations from previous field campaigns, a new algorithm has been developed that makes it possible to emulate a radar and derive reflectivity profiles from the observed brightness temperatures. We present preliminary results from GRIP, including close-up views of the convective structure of Hurricane Karl as it intensified to category 3. The Global Hawk flew over Karl for 13 hours and passed over the eye 20 times during this period, and with HAMSR it is possible to analyze the three-dimensional convective structure of the inner core as it evolves. And since HAMSR is a sounder, it is also possible to analyze the thermodynamic structure in areas surrounding the core. GRIP was operated in coordination with NOAA and the NSF, and observations were collected from numerous sensors on multiple aircraft platforms. The analysis of this rich data set is just beginning. Copyright 2011 California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged. Session 3 – Page 1 NPP Microwave-sounder Based Tropical Cyclone Products Andrea Schumacher1, Mark DeMaria2, John A. Knaff2, Limin Zhao3, Tom Schott4 ([email protected]) 1Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, CO; 2NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, Fort Collins, CO; 3NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO/SPSD, Camp Springs, MD; 4NOAA/NESDIS/OSD, Suitland, MD NESDIS provides several Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)-based operational tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and structure guidance products. Using temperature retrievals corrected for scattering and attenuation a number of tropical cyclone products are generated. These products include storm-centered radius vs. pressure profiles of temperature and gradient winds, objective estimates of 1-min maximum sustained surface winds, minimum sea level pressure, the radii of 34-, 50-, and 64-kt winds in the northeast, southeast, southwest, and northwest quadrants, and balanced horizontal winds on standard pressure levels from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa within 600 km of tropical cyclones. Product algorithms use statistical methods to remove temperature biases due to scattering and attenuation, and by using NCEP boundary conditions and hydrostatic balance heights fields can be estimated.