Minnesota Weathertalk Newsletter for Friday, January 1, 2010
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Conference Poster Production
65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Miami, Florida February 28 - March 3, 2011 Hurricane Earl:September 2, 2010 Ocean and Atmospheric Influences on Tropical Cyclone Predictions: Challenges and Recent Progress S E S S Session 2 I The 2010 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review O N 2 The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Extremely Active but no U.S. Hurricane Landfalls Eric Blake and John L. Beven II ([email protected]) NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was quite active, with 19 named storms, 12 of which became hurricanes and 5 of which reached major hurricane intensity. These totals are well above the long-term normals of about 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Although the 2010 season was considerably busier than normal, no hurricanes struck the United States. This was the most active season on record in the Atlantic that did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, and was also the second year in a row without a hurricane striking the U.S. coastline. A persistent trough along the east coast of the United States steered many of the hurricanes out to sea, while ridging over the central United States kept any hurricanes over the western part of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico farther south over Central America and Mexico. The most significant U.S. impacts occurred with Tropical Storm Hermine, which brought hurricane-force wind gusts to south Texas along with extremely heavy rain, six fatalities, and about $240 million dollars of damage. Hurricane Earl was responsible for four deaths along the east coast of the United States due to very large swells, although the center of the hurricane stayed offshore. -
An Efficient Method for Simulating Typhoon Waves Based on A
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering Article An Efficient Method for Simulating Typhoon Waves Based on a Modified Holland Vortex Model Lvqing Wang 1,2,3, Zhaozi Zhang 1,*, Bingchen Liang 1,2,*, Dongyoung Lee 4 and Shaoyang Luo 3 1 Shandong Province Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Ocean University of China, 238 Songling Road, Qingdao 266100, China; [email protected] 2 College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, 238 Songling Road, Qingdao 266100, China 3 NAVAL Research Academy, Beijing 100070, China; [email protected] 4 Korea Institute of Ocean, Science and Technology, Busan 600-011, Korea; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] (Z.Z.); [email protected] (B.L.) Received: 20 January 2020; Accepted: 23 February 2020; Published: 6 March 2020 Abstract: A combination of the WAVEWATCH III (WW3) model and a modified Holland vortex model is developed and studied in the present work. The Holland 2010 model is modified with two improvements: the first is a new scaling parameter, bs, that is formulated with information about the maximum wind speed (vms) and the typhoon’s forward movement velocity (vt); the second is the introduction of an asymmetric typhoon structure. In order to convert the wind speed, as reconstructed by the modified Holland model, from 1-min averaged wind inputs into 10-min averaged wind inputs to force the WW3 model, a gust factor (gf) is fitted in accordance with practical test cases. Validation against wave buoy data proves that the combination of the two models through the gust factor is robust for the estimation of typhoon waves. -
Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs. -
Assimilation of Ttrecretrieved Wind Data with WRF 3DVAR
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH: ATMOSPHERES, VOL. 118, 10,361–10,375, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50815, 2013 Assimilation of T-TREC-retrieved wind data with WRF 3DVAR for the short-term forecasting of typhoon Meranti (2010) near landfall Xin Li,1 Jie Ming,1 Yuan Wang,1 Kun Zhao,1 and Ming Xue 2 Received 11 April 2013; revised 30 August 2013; accepted 4 September 2013; published 18 September 2013. [1] An extended Tracking Radar Echo by Correlation (TREC) technique, called T-TREC technique, has been developed recently to retrieve horizontal circulations within tropical cyclones (TCs) from single Doppler radar reflectivity (Z) and radial velocity (Vr, when available) data. This study explores, for the first time, the assimilation of T-TREC-retrieved winds for a landfalling typhoon, Meranti (2010), into a convection-resolving model, the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting). The T-TREC winds or the original Vr data from a single coastal Doppler radar are assimilated at the single time using the WRF three-dimensional variational (3DVAR), at 8, 6, 4, and 2 h before the landfall of typhoon Meranti. In general, assimilating T-TREC winds results in better structure and intensity analysis of Meranti than directly assimilating Vr data. The subsequent forecasts for the track, intensity, structure and precipitation are also better, although the differences becomes smaller as the Vr data coverage improves when the typhoon gets closer to the radar. The ability of the T-TREC retrieval in capturing more accurate and complete vortex circulations in the inner-core region of TC is believed to be the primary reason for its superior performance over direct assimilation of Vr data; for the latter, the data coverage is much smaller when the TC is far away and the cross-beam wind component is difficult to analyze accurately with 3DVAR method. -
Two Typical Ionospheric Irregularities Associated with the Tropical Cyclones Tembin (2012) and Hagibis (2014)
Originally published as: Lou, Y., Luo, X., Gu, S., Xiong, C., Song, Q., Chen, B., Xiao, Q., Chen, D., Zhang, Z., Zheng, G. (2019): Two Typical Ionospheric Irregularities Associated With the Tropical Cyclones Tembin (2012) and Hagibis (2014). - Journal of Geophysical Research, 124, 7, pp. 6237—6252. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1029/2019JA026861 RESEARCH ARTICLE Two Typical Ionospheric Irregularities Associated With 10.1029/2019JA026861 the Tropical Cyclones Tembin (2012) and Hagibis (2014) Key Points: Yidong Lou1 , Xiaomin Luo1 , Shengfeng Gu1 , Chao Xiong2 , Qian Song3 , Biyan Chen4, • Different characteristics of EPB and 5 1 1 1 MSTID associated with tropical Qinqin Xiao , Dezhong Chen , Zheng Zhang , and Gang Zheng cyclones in China are analyzed in 1 2 detail GNSS Research Center, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China, GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences, Potsdam, • Cautions should be taken when the Germany, 3Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration, ROTI maps are used to identify the Beijing, China, 4School of Geosciences and Info‐Physics, Central South University, Changsha, China, 5School of ionospheric irregularities since they Municipal and Surveying Engineering, Hunan City University, Yiyang, China are sensitive to both plasma bubble and MSTID • Both EPB and MSTID show the geomagnetically conjugating feature Abstract Two remarkable ionospheric irregularities named equatorial plasma bubble (EPB) and in the East‐Asia region medium‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbance (MSTID) are verified by using multi‐instrumental observations, for example, the ground‐based GPS networks, ionosonde stations, and Swarm satellites, when the tropical cyclones Tembin and Hagibis approached Hong Kong on 26 August 2012 and 15 June 2014, Correspondence to: respectively. -
Global Climate Risk Index 2018
THINK TANK & RESEARCH BRIEFING PAPER GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2018 Who Suffers Most From Extreme Weather Events? Weather-related Loss Events in 2016 and 1997 to 2016 David Eckstein, Vera Künzel and Laura Schäfer Global Climate Risk Index 2018 GERMANWATCH Brief Summary The Global Climate Risk Index 2018 analyses to what extent countries have been affected by the impacts of weather-related loss events (storms, floods, heat waves etc.). The most recent data available – for 2016 and from 1997 to 2016 – were taken into account. The countries affected most in 2016 were Haiti, Zimbabwe as well as Fiji. For the period from 1997 to 2016 Honduras, Haiti and Myanmar rank highest. This year’s 13th edition of the analysis reconfirms earlier results of the Climate Risk Index: less developed countries are generally more affected than industrialised countries. Regarding future climate change, the Climate Risk Index may serve as a red flag for already existing vulnerability that may further increase in regions where extreme events will become more frequent or more severe due to climate change. While some vulnerable developing countries are frequently hit by extreme events, for others such disasters are a rare occurrence. It remains to be seen how much progress the Fijian climate summit in Bonn will make to address these challenges: The COP23 aims to continue the development of the ‘rule-book’ needed for implementing the Paris Agreement, including the global adaptation goal and adaptation communication guidelines. A new 5-year-work plan of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage is to be adopted by the COP. -
Analysis of Terrain Height Effects on the Asymmetric Precipitation Patterns During the Landfall of Typhoon Meranti (2010)
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2019, 9, 331-345 http://www.scirp.org/journal/acs ISSN Online: 2160-0422 ISSN Print: 2160-0414 Analysis of Terrain Height Effects on the Asymmetric Precipitation Patterns during the Landfall of Typhoon Meranti (2010) Jinqing Liu1,2, Ziliang Li1*, Mengxiang Xu1 1College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China 2Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha, China How to cite this paper: Liu, J.Q., Li, Z.L. Abstract and Xu, M.X. (2019) Analysis of Terrain Height Effects on the Asymmetric Precipi- The predictions of heavy rainfall in an accurate and timely fashion are some tation Patterns during the Landfall of Ty- of the most important challenges in disastrous weather forecast when a ty- phoon Meranti (2010). Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 9, 331-345. phoon passes over land. Numerical simulations using the advanced weather https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2019.93024 research and forecasting (WRF) model are performed to study the effect of terrain height and land surface processes on the rainfall of landfall typhoon Received: May 25, 2019 Accepted: July 8, 2019 Meranti (2010). The experimental results indicate that terrain height could Published: July 11, 2019 enhance convection and precipitation. The heavy rainfall is concentrated on the west side of typhoon track, which is mainly associated with the distribu- Copyright © 2019 by author(s) and tion of deep convection. The terrain height exacerbated the asymmetric dis- Scientific Research Publishing Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative tribution of heavy rainfall. The most striking feature is that enhanced rainfall Commons Attribution International is mainly caused by secondary circulation, which is induced by terrain height License (CC BY 4.0). -
RA IV Hurricane Committee Thirty-Third Session
dr WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION RA IV HURRICANE COMMITTEE THIRTYTHIRD SESSION GRAND CAYMAN, CAYMAN ISLANDS (8 to 12 March 2011) FINAL REPORT 1. ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION At the kind invitation of the Government of the Cayman Islands, the thirtythird session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee was held in George Town, Grand Cayman from 8 to 12 March 2011. The opening ceremony commenced at 0830 hours on Tuesday, 8 March 2011. 1.1 Opening of the session 1.1.1 Mr Fred Sambula, Director General of the Cayman Islands National Weather Service, welcomed the participants to the session. He urged that in the face of the annual recurrent threats from tropical cyclones that the Committee review the technical & operational plans with an aim at further refining the Early Warning System to enhance its service delivery to the nations. 1.1.2 Mr Arthur Rolle, President of Regional Association IV (RA IV) opened his remarks by informing the Committee members of the national hazards in RA IV in 2010. He mentioned that the nation of Haiti suffered severe damage from the earthquake in January. He thanked the Governments of France, Canada and the United States for their support to the Government of Haiti in providing meteorological equipment and human resource personnel. He also thanked the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and others for their support to Haiti. The President spoke on the changes that were made to the hurricane warning systems at the 32 nd session of the Hurricane Committee in Bermuda. He mentioned that the changes may have resulted in the reduced loss of lives in countries impacted by tropical cyclones. -
State of the Climate in 2010
State of the climate in 2010 Citation Blunden, J., D. S. Arndt, and M. O. Baringer. “State of the Climate in 2010.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 92 (2011): S1-S236. Web. 8 Dec. 2011. © 2011 American Meteorological Society As Published http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-92.6.S1 Publisher American Meteorological Society Version Final published version Accessed Mon Mar 26 14:41:06 EDT 2012 Citable Link http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/67483 Terms of Use Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. Detailed Terms J. Blunden, D. S. Arndt, and M. O. Baringer, Eds. Associate Eds. H. J. Diamond, A. J. Dolman, R. L. Fogt, B. D. Hall, M. Jeffries, J. M. Levy, J. M. Renwick, J. Richter-Menge, P. W. Thorne, L. A. Vincent, and K. M. Willett Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 92, No. 6, June 2011 STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2010 STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2010 JUNE 2011 | S1 HOW TO CITE THIS DOCUMENT __________________________________________________________________________________________ Citing the complete report: Blunden, J., D. S. Arndt, and M. O. Baringer, Eds., 2011: State of the Climate in 2010. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92 (6), S1 –S266. Citing a chapter (example): Fogt, R. L., Ed., 2011: Antarctica [in “State of the Climate in 2010”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92 (6), S161 –S171. Citing a section (example): Wovrosh, A. J., S. Barreira, and R. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2010
VOLUME 140 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW SEPTEMBER 2012 ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2010 STACY R. STEWART AND JOHN P. CANGIALOSI National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 29 June 2011, in final form 6 November 2011) ABSTRACT The 2010 eastern North Pacific hurricane season was one of the least active seasons on record. Only seven named storms developed, which is the lowest number observed at least since routine satellite coverage of that basin began in 1966. Furthermore, only three of those storms reached hurricane status, which is also the lowest number of hurricanes ever observed in the satellite-era season. However, two tropical storms made landfall: Agatha in Guatemala and Georgette in Mexico, with Agatha directly causing 190 deaths and moderate to severe property damage as a result of rain-induced floods and mud slides. On average, the National Hurricane Center track forecasts in the eastern North Pacific for 2010 were quite skillful. 1. Introduction the maximum sustained wind speed at 6-h intervals for all (sub)tropical storms and hurricanes. The ACE for The 2010 eastern North Pacific hurricane season con- the 2010 season was 50 3 104 kt2, or about 46% of the tinued the trend of generally quieter than average seasons long-term (1971–2009) median value of 109 3 104 kt2. since 1995 (Fig. 1; Table 1) (Wang and Lee 2009). A total Two hurricanes, Celia and Darby, accounted for 70% of of seven tropical storms developed, of which three became the total ACE for the season. The 2010 season had the hurricanes, including two major hurricanes [maximum third lowest ACE since 1971, ahead of only 1977 and 1-min winds of greater than 96 kt (1 kt 5 0.5144 m s21), 2007. -
Tri-‐Agency Forecast Discussion for August 29, 2010 Created 1600 UTC
Tri-Agency Forecast Discussion for August 29, 2010 Created 1600 UTC August 29, 2010 GRIP Forecast Team: Henry Fuelberg, Ellen Ramirez, Dan Halperin, Karry Liu, Leon Nguyen, Diana Thomas, Andrew Martin, and Cerese Inglish Summary: Today is another active day for the GRIP field program in FLL and STX. From an operations standpoint for GRIP, Earl is the main area of interest. The storm was upgraded to a category 1 hurricane at 1230Z this morning and continues to show signs of intensification this afternoon (the official NHC intensity forecast shows Earl becoming a major hurricane at 31/00Z). The DC-8 was scheduled to takeoff at 1400Z today, but was delayed due to a bird strike while the aircraft was still on the ground. After inspection and testing of the effected engine, it was determined that the aircraft could indeed continue with a science flight. The DC-8 departed from STX at approximately 1630Z and, as of this discussion, is conducting a science flight into Hurricane Earl. Since STX is currently under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch, there is some uncertainty as to whether the aircraft will recover to STX or to FLL tonight. As it stands now, it will recover to STX and depart early tomorrow morning (~1200Z) for another science flight which will recover in FLL. Possible science flights into Earl from FLL in the coming days will be determined later. The WB-57 will make a final go/no-go decision regarding a suitcase flight to Tampa Monday morning. At this time, they plan to transit to Tampa on Monday and conduct science flights in Earl potentially Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. -
EP072016 Frank.Pdf
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT HURRICANE FRANK (EP072016) 21 – 28 July 2016 Lixion A. Avila National Hurricane Center 20 September 2016 GOES 15 SATELLITE IMAGE AT 0000 UTC 27 JULY SHOWING THE EYE OF FRANK AT THE TIME THE HURRICANE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. IMAGE COURTESY OF THE NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY. Frank was the fifth hurricane to form in the eastern North Pacific basin during July of 2016, marking a new record for this month. Frank produced sustained tropical-storm- force winds on Socorro Island. Hurricane Frank 2 Hurricane Frank 21 – 28 JULY 2016 SYNOPTIC HISTORY Frank’s origin was associated with a large-amplitude tropical wave that moved off of the west coast of Africa on 10 July. The wave travelled westward across the tropical Atlantic with little thunderstorm activity, and reached the western Caribbean Sea on 18 July. On 19 July, upper-air data from Central America showed that the wave had a well-defined mid-level circulation while the convection was increasing. The wave continued westward and its associated cloudiness and thunderstorms gradually became better organized on 20 July just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The formation of a tropical depression occurred at 0600 UTC 21 July about 250 n mi south of Manzanillo, Mexico. The “best track” chart of the tropical cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 11. The cloud pattern continued to become better organized, and by 1200 UTC 21 July, the system was a tropical storm.