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Conference Poster Production
65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Miami, Florida February 28 - March 3, 2011 Hurricane Earl:September 2, 2010 Ocean and Atmospheric Influences on Tropical Cyclone Predictions: Challenges and Recent Progress S E S S Session 2 I The 2010 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review O N 2 The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Extremely Active but no U.S. Hurricane Landfalls Eric Blake and John L. Beven II ([email protected]) NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was quite active, with 19 named storms, 12 of which became hurricanes and 5 of which reached major hurricane intensity. These totals are well above the long-term normals of about 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Although the 2010 season was considerably busier than normal, no hurricanes struck the United States. This was the most active season on record in the Atlantic that did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, and was also the second year in a row without a hurricane striking the U.S. coastline. A persistent trough along the east coast of the United States steered many of the hurricanes out to sea, while ridging over the central United States kept any hurricanes over the western part of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico farther south over Central America and Mexico. The most significant U.S. impacts occurred with Tropical Storm Hermine, which brought hurricane-force wind gusts to south Texas along with extremely heavy rain, six fatalities, and about $240 million dollars of damage. Hurricane Earl was responsible for four deaths along the east coast of the United States due to very large swells, although the center of the hurricane stayed offshore. -
A NEW EYE on COASTS Celebrating 2 Award-Winning Years of Eos Magazine and Eos.Org
VOL. 98 NO. 1 JAN 2017 Antarctic Trek for Space Weather Partnering Academia and the Military Earth & Space Science News Whisker-like New Mineral Discovered A NEW EYE ON COASTS Celebrating 2 Award-Winning Years of Eos Magazine and Eos.org Nearly 1 Million Online Readers An International Readership Spanning 196 Countries Multiple Awards from Association TRENDS and Association Media & Publishing VOL. 97 NO. 23 1 DEC 2016 VOL. 96 NO. 4 1 MAR 2015 VOL. 96 NO. 13 15 JUL 2015 Earth & Space Science News Earth & Space Science News HowHowHow Ready ReadyReady is Isis Los Los Angeles Angeles LEARNING Sonar Data forfor thethe NextNext “ GEOSCIENCE from the Water Column “Big OneOne”? Tracking Global ? BY DOING Landslide Hazards ”? Students Launch High-Altitude Balloons Monitoring Colombia’s GEOSCIENCE Slumbering Volcanoes Seismic Hazard Assessment Lab Simulates Science Fares Well in U.S. Solar Eruptions Gender Parity Proposed Federal Budget Magnetic Islands Caterpillar-Like Motion in Space of the Greenland Ice Sheet New for 2017: You’ll receive Eos magazine once a month, and now you’ll enjoy More Content: More features, news, and Research Spotlights More Depth: Special issues on important and emerging topics The satisfaction of a reduced carbon footprint And, as always, you can read articles free online as soon as they are published on Eos.org or by adding Eos.org to mobile apps like SmartNews and Flipboard. Earth & Space Science News Contents JANUARY 2017 PROJECT UPDATE VOLUME 98, ISSUE 1 14 Space Weather from a Southern Point of View A recently completed instrument array monitors geospace from the Antarctic end of Earth’s magnetic field lines. -
For Bibliography by Year, See the Website)
THIS IS THE TEXT OF A BIBLIOGRAPHY IN THE WEB SITE “THE DISCOVERY OF GLOBAL WARMING” BY SPENCER WEART, HTTP://WWW.AIP.ORG/HISTORY/CLIMATE. FEBRUARY 2014. COPYRIGHT © 2003-2014 SPENCER WEART & AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS Bibliography by Author (for Bibliography by Year, see the Website) This bibliography may seem long (more than 2500 items), but it has a great many omissions. Please see the discussion of sources in the “Method” essay. Note in particular that the IPCC reports have by far the most complete bibliography for recent scientific work. Abbreviations used in the notes: AIP: Niels Bohr Library at the American Institute of Physics, College Park, MD LDEO: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY SIO: Scripps Institution of Oceanography Archives, La Jolla, CA Abarbenel, Albert, and Thomas McCluskey (1950). “Is the World Getting Warmer?” Saturday Evening Post, 1 July, pp. 22-23, 57-63. Abbot, Charles G., and F.E. Fowle, Jr. (1908). “Income and Outgo of Heat from the Earth, and the Dependence of Its Temperature Thereon.” Annals of the Astrophysical Observatory (Smithsonian Institution, Washington DC) 2: 159-176. Abbot, Charles G., and F.E. Fowle, Jr. (1913). “Volcanoes and Climate.” Smithsonian Miscellaneous Collections 60(29): 1-24. Abbot, Charles G. (1967). “Precipitation in Five Continents.” Smithsonian Miscellaneous Collections 151(5). Abelmann, Andrea, et al. (2006). “Extensive Phytoplankton Blooms in the Atlantic Sector of the Glacial Southern Ocean.” Paleoceanography 21: PA1013 [doi:10.1029/2005PA001199, 2006]. Abelson, P.H. (1977). “Energy and Climate.” Science 197: 941. Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, et al. (2013). “Insolation-Driven 100,000-Year Glacial Cycles and Hysteresis of Ice-Sheet Volume.” Nature 500: 190-93 [doi:10.1038/nature12374]. -
1858 San Diego Hurricane and Not Be Sur- Documented to Be Real
THE SAN DIEGO HURRICANE OF 2 OCTOBER 1858 BY MICHAEL CHENOWETH AND CHRISTOPHER LANDSEA The discovery of a hurricane that directly impacted San Diego, California, nearly 150 yr ago has implications for residents and risk managers in their planning for extreme events for the region. ropical cyclones forming in the eastern North 10 September 1976 in California and Arizona, and Pacific Ocean are occasional visitors to the Hurricane Nora in September 1997 in Arizona. Only T southwestern United States. By the time these the 1939 tropical storm made a direct landfall in coastal systems travel far enough to the north to bring their California (Smith 1986), because the other three sys- associated moisture to the United States, the tropical tems entered the United States after first making land- cyclones have normally diminished below tropical fall in Mexico. storm strength over Mexico or over the colder waters The 1939 tropical storm caused $2 million in prop- of the California Current that flows southward along erty damage in California, mostly to shipping, shore the California coast. Rain, sometimes locally excessive, structures, power and communication lines, and crops. is frequently observed in many areas of the southwest- Ships in coastal waters of southern California reported ern United States when tropical cyclone remnants en- southeast winds between 34 and 47 kt (Hurd 1939). ter the region (Blake 1935; Smith 1986). However, no tropical cyclones are recorded or esti- Four tropical cyclones have managed to bring tropi- mated to have made landfall in the southwestern cal storm–force winds to the southwestern United United States as a hurricane, with maximum 1-min States during the twentieth century: a tropical storm surface (10 m) winds of at least 64 kt. -
Mariner's Guide for Hurricane Awareness
Mariner’s Guide For Hurricane Awareness In The North Atlantic Basin Eric J. Holweg [email protected] Meteorologist Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch Tropical Prediction Center National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration August 2000 Internet Sites with Weather and Communications Information Of Interest To The Mariner NOAA home page: http://www.noaa.gov NWS home page: http://www.nws.noaa.gov NWS marine dissemination page: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/home.htm NWS marine text products: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/forecast.htm NWS radio facsmile/marine charts: http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/marine.shtml NWS publications: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/nwspub.htm NOAA Data Buoy Center: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov NOAA Weather Radio: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr National Ocean Service (NOS): http://co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/ NOS Tide data: http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/ USCG Navigation Center: http://www.navcen.uscg.mil Tropical Prediction Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ High Seas Forecasts and Charts: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/forecast.html Marine Prediction Center: http://www.mpc.ncep.noaa.gov SST & Gulfstream: http://www4.nlmoc.navy.mil/data/oceans/gulfstream.html Hurricane Preparedness & Tracks: http://www.fema.gov/fema/trop.htm Time Zone Conversions: http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/zones.html Table of Contents Introduction and Purpose ................................................................................................................... 1 Disclaimer ........................................................................................................................................... -
Climate Changes Associated with Increasing CO 2
Welcome to ATMS 111 Global Warming http://www.atmos.washington.edu/2010Q1/111 These slides are preliminary and will likely be revised by class time. Vertical structure of the atmosphere Stratosphere ozone layer / ozone hole ultraviolet solar radiation sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions increasing GHG produces cooling Troposphere most clouds and atmospheric water vapor ozone from air pollution short residence time of aerosols Hurricanes and other storms RG p128-146 A taste of things to come? Keeping count: will there be more cyclones in the future? Surges and downpours Coastal concerns beyond the tropics Coastal storm flooding: a deepening problem Tornadoes: an overblown connection? Was Hurricane Katrina related to global warming? http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~schen/Isabel/goes_floater030912.avi Photo by UW Prof R. Houze The first storm churns up colder, deeper waters and leaves a trail of cool in its wake. The second storm loses strength when intersects this cold water trail. NASA NASA's Aqua and TRMM of SST. Sea height using the Jason-1 satellite. http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/earthandsun/eye_to_eye.html Another example of cooler SST after storm passes Cold ocean temperature in Katrina’s Wake http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/visualizations-hurricanes Loop Current 200-300km wide 80-150 m deep warm current ribbon In step 2 it has stretched so that it breaks off an eddy in step 3 Happens about ~6-11 months http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/ias.html Hurricane Katrina: Ocean Heat Content and wind speed in mph (next to black dots) Hurricane produce oceanic upwelling beneath the eye Upwelling of cold water can provide a strong negative feedback that limits the strength of the hurricane. -
Walter Heinrich Munk
WALTER HEINRICH MUNK 19 october 1917 . 8 february 2019 PROCEEDINGS OF THE AMERICAN PHILOSOPHICAL SOCIETY VOL. 163, NO. 3, SEPTEMBER 2019 biographical memoirs alter Heinrich Munk was a brilliant scholar and scientist who was considered one of the greatest oceanographers of W his time. He was born in Vienna, Austria in 1917 as the Austro-Hungarian Empire was declining and just before the death of one of its great artists, Gustav Klimt. Hedwig Eva Maria Kiesler, who later changed her name to Hedy Lamarr to accommodate her film career, was one of Walter’s childhood friends.1 Walter’s mother, Rega Brunner,2 the daughter of a wealthy Jewish banker, divorced Walter’s father in 1927 and married Dr. Rudolf Engelsberg in 1928. By age 14, Walter apparently had not distinguished himself in his school studies and announced that he intended to become a ski instructor. Walter later claimed that it was this that caused his mother to send him to work at a family bank in New York. The validity of this claim should be tempered by the political turmoil in Germany and its proximity to Austria. In any case, Walter left Vienna in 1932. In New York, he attended Silver Bay Preparatory School for Boys on Lake George and then became a lowly employee in the Cassel Bank, which was associated with the family’s Brunner Bank in New York. In the meantime, Walter restarted his education at Columbia’s Extension School. He greatly disliked the work at the bank and apparently made a number of mistakes, which didn’t endear him to the owners of the Cassel Bank. -
The San Diego Hurricane of 2 October 1858
THE SAN DIEGO HURRICANE OF 2 OCTOBER 1858 BY MICHAEL CHENOWETH AND CHRISTOPHER LANDSEA The discovery of a hurricane that directly impacted San Diego, California, nearly 150 yr ago has implications for residents and risk managers in their planning for extreme events for the region. ropical cyclones forming in the eastern North 10 September 1976 in California and Arizona, and Pacific Ocean are occasional visitors to the Hurricane Nora in September 1997 in Arizona. Only Tsouthwestern United States. By the time these the 1939 tropical storm made a direct landfall in coastal systems travel far enough to the north to bring their California (Smith 1986), because the other three sys- associated moisture to the United States, the tropical tems entered the United States after first making land- cyclones have normally diminished below tropical fall in Mexico. storm strength over Mexico or over the colder waters The 1939 tropical storm caused $2 million in prop- of the California Current that flows southward along erty damage in California, mostly to shipping, shore the California coast. Rain, sometimes locally excessive, structures, power and communication lines, and crops. is frequently observed in many areas of the southwest- Ships in coastal waters of southern California reported ern United States when tropical cyclone remnants en- southeast winds between 34 and 47 kt (Hurd 1939). ter the region (Blake 1935; Smith 1986). However, no tropical cyclones are recorded or esti- Four tropical cyclones have managed to bring tropi- mated to have made landfall in the southwestern cal storm-force winds to the southwestern United United States as a hurricane, with maximum 1-min States during the twentieth century: a tropical storm surface (10 m) winds of at least 64 kt. -
A Rational Discussion of Climate Change: the Science, the Evidence, the Response
A RATIONAL DISCUSSION OF CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE, THE EVIDENCE, THE RESPONSE HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION NOVEMBER 17, 2010 Serial No. 111–114 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science and Technology ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.science.house.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 62–618PDF WASHINGTON : 2010 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HON. BART GORDON, Tennessee, Chair JERRY F. COSTELLO, Illinois RALPH M. HALL, Texas EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas F. JAMES SENSENBRENNER JR., LYNN C. WOOLSEY, California Wisconsin DAVID WU, Oregon LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas BRIAN BAIRD, Washington DANA ROHRABACHER, California BRAD MILLER, North Carolina ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois VERNON J. EHLERS, Michigan GABRIELLE GIFFORDS, Arizona FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma DONNA F. EDWARDS, Maryland JUDY BIGGERT, Illinois MARCIA L. FUDGE, Ohio W. TODD AKIN, Missouri BEN R. LUJA´ N, New Mexico RANDY NEUGEBAUER, Texas PAUL D. TONKO, New York BOB INGLIS, South Carolina STEVEN R. ROTHMAN, New Jersey MICHAEL T. MCCAUL, Texas JIM MATHESON, Utah MARIO DIAZ-BALART, Florida LINCOLN DAVIS, Tennessee BRIAN P. BILBRAY, California BEN CHANDLER, Kentucky ADRIAN SMITH, Nebraska RUSS CARNAHAN, Missouri PAUL C. BROUN, Georgia BARON P. HILL, Indiana PETE OLSON, Texas HARRY E. MITCHELL, Arizona CHARLES A. WILSON, Ohio KATHLEEN DAHLKEMPER, Pennsylvania ALAN GRAYSON, Florida SUZANNE M. -
TROPICAL HURRICANES in the Age of Global Warming
TROPICAL HURRICANES In the age of global warming Paul Homewood The Global Warming Policy Foundation GWPF Briefing 37 TROPICAL HURRICANES In the age of global warming Paul Homewood © Copyright 2019 The Global Warming Policy Foundation Contents About the author vi Executive summary vii 1 Introduction 1 2 Are hurricanes getting worse? – the theoretical case 1 3 What does the IPCC say? 3 4 Changes in observation methodology 4 5 US landfalling hurricanes 6 6 Atlantic hurricanes 6 7 The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation 6 8 Global trends 10 9 Tropical cyclone rainfall 11 10 Conclusions 12 Notes 13 About the author Paul Homewood had a career as an accountant in industry. He has been writing on climate and energy issues since 2011. vi Executive summary 2017 saw a particularly severe hurricane season in the North Atlantic. In addition, economic losses from hurricanes are much greater than even a few decades ago. Together with 24/7 news coverage, these observations have led to renewed claims that global warming is lead- ing to more frequent and more intense hurricanes. This idea is based on the concept that hurricanes feed off warm waters: the warmer the waters, the more intense the hurricane. In addition, economic losses from hurricanes are much greater than even a few decades ago, simply because of greater wealth and urbanisation of vulnerable coastal areas. But what does the actual data tell us? One of the problems in evaluating long-term hurricane trends is that there have been wholesale changes in observation methodology since the 19th century. Until the 1940s, there were only ships’ logs and ad-hoc land observations. -
Christopher Landsea, Ph.D. Branch Chief Tropical Analysis & Forecast Branch National Hurricane Center
Christopher Landsea, Ph.D. Branch Chief Tropical Analysis & Forecast Branch National Hurricane Center Christopher W. Landsea is the branch chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami. The branch generates wind and wave forecasts for the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, tropical North Atlantic Ocean, and tropical northeastern Pacific Ocean. The TAFB supports the Hurricane Specialist Unit at NHC by providing tropical cyclone position and intensity estimates based on the Dvorak technique. Dr. Landsea received his Bachelor's Degree in Dr. Landsea is a member of the American Atmospheric Science from the University of Meteorological Society (AMS), the National California Los Angeles (1987) and his Master's Weather Association and the American Degree and Doctorate in Atmospheric Science from Geophysical Union. He served as the Chair of the Colorado State University (1991, 1994). His AMS Committee on Tropical Meteorology and graduate work was undertaken with Dr. Bill Gray, Tropical Cyclones for the years 2000-2002. Dr. one of the world's leading experts on hurricanes Landsea was the recipient of the AMS's Max A. and tropical meteorology. Dr. Landsea's main Eaton Prize for the Best Student Paper given at the expertise is in seasonal forecasting of hurricanes, in 19th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical hurricane climate variability and change, and in Meteorology in May 1991 and was co-recipient of testing applied research projects for possible use in the AMS's Banner I. Miller Award given for the best weather forecasting. He currently is leading up a contribution to the science of hurricane and tropical re-analysis of the Atlantic hurricane database. -
Hurricane Threat to Florida Climate Change Or Demographics?
Hurricane Threat to Florida Climate Change or Demographics? by Robert Ferguson October 2007 Updated and revised March 2008 Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 www.scienceandpublicpolicy.org The ongoing controversy about hurricanes and global warming is a perfect example of the predicaments of consensus science. It also demonstrates that advocates who exploit the consensus argument against climate skeptics are more than happy to oppose the consensus - if it helps to further an alarmist agenda. Dr. Benny Peiser - 2 - Hurricane Threats to Florida Climate Change or Demographics? Background Florida has the distinction of holding several not-so-enviable records when it comes to hurricane strength, frequency, and subsequent death and damages (Blake et al., 2007). The Florida Keys Hurricane of 1935 among of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever to strike land, passing over Florida’s middle keys on September 2, 1935. It killed 408 Floridians. That storm was but one of Florida’s five entries among the top-10 most intense storms ever to make landfall anywhere in the United States. Number 3 in that list is 1992’s Hurricane Andrew which also ranks 2nd on the list of all-time most damaging storms (behind Katrina)—causing just under 50 billion dollars in property damage. All of the top-5 costliest hurricanes in U.S. history impacted Florida to some extent. Number 7 in the intensity list is the Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928 which caused a 6 to 9 foot lake surge killing 1,836 people in Florida and ranking it second all-time in the list of deadliest U.