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Workshop on Tropical Cyclones and Climate WORKSHOP ON TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE BY SUZANA J. CAMARGO AND ADAM H. SOBEL ropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive of natural disasters. The statistics TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE WORKSHOP T of TC occurrence and intensity are influenced by WHAT: Experts assembled to provide a unique assessment variations in the large-scale climate, but many aspects of the current knowledge and problems with the of this influence are poorly understood. Even less is influence of climate on tropical cyclones, and vice known about the influence of tropical cyclones on the versa, to provide new insights and form new collabo- rations in this rapidly evolving area of research. large-scale climate. These problems have been studied WHEN: 27–29 March 2006 relatively little, considering their importance, perhaps WHERE: Palisades, New York because TCs and climate are for the most part studied by separate groups of scientists who have tended to interact less than they might. As debate about the pos- session. Relatively lengthy discussion periods were built sibility of an influence of anthropogenic climate change into the schedule (the complete agenda can be found on TCs has heated up in the last year, it has become clear online at http://iri.columbia.edu/outreach/meeting/ that the relationship between TCs and climate needs TropicalCyclones/agenda.html) allowing in-depth much more sustained and serious study. discussion of the presentations and related issues. A In response to this need, the International Research special issue of Tellus A (the Swedish Geophysical Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) hosted a two- Society’s publication on dynamical meteorology and and-a-half-day workshop in March 2006 on “Tropical oceanography) is currently in preparation, featuring Cyclones and Climate.” The centerpiece of the work- papers based on presentations given at the workshop. shop was a set of invited lectures, with a modest number The planning for the workshop began in late 2004. of contributed oral presentations and a small poster At that time, the relationship between TCs and cli- mate did not appear to be a hot topic. The extreme Atlantic hurricane season of 2005, and the disastrous AFFILIATIONS: CAMARGO—International Research Institute for consequences of Katrina in particular, as well as two Climate and Society, The Earth Institute at Columbia University, high-profile papers published during the summer of Palisades, New York; SOBEL—Department of Applied Physics and 2005 (Emanuel 2005; Webster et al. 2005) changed Applied Mathematics, and Department of Earth and Environmen- tal Sciences, Columbia University, New York, New York that. Presumably due at least in part to these devel- CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Suzana J. Camargo, International opments, the workshop attracted more interest than Research Institute for Climate and Society, Monell 225, 61 Route we had expected. Eighty-three registered attendees 9W, Palisades, NY 10964-8000 participated, mainly from universities (76%) and E-mail: [email protected] government (13%), with some representatives from DOI:10.1175/BAMS-88-3-389 the insurance industry (6%) and the press (4%). Of the registrants, 23% were female, and 12% were from In final form 31 October 2006 ©2007 American Meteorological Society foreign institutions; 20 were graduate students and one was a high school student. In addition to these AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY MARCH 2007 | 389 registered participants, a small number of scientists basin mainly through the atmosphere, rather than from the Columbia University community informally through the ocean, because the interannual variations attended some or all of the workshop. in intensity that have been observed are opposite in Presentations were loosely classified into the following sign to what would be expected based on the local SST four areas: the influence of climate on TCs, the influence anomalies in the region of TC genesis. of TCs on climate, paleotempestology, and risk manage- The recent spurt of hurricane landfalls in the ment and impacts. The second and third areas are those United States shows that the impacts of TCs are not in which little research has been done, and one goal of the only devastating to individuals, communities, and workshop was to stimulate interest in these areas. property, but also to our economy, both directly The influence of climate variability on TCs was and indirectly. Richard Murnane (Risk Prediction emphasized on the first day. Fréderic Vitart (European Initiative) provided the perspective of the insurance Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), industry, for whom TCs are the most important Lennart Bengtsson (University of Reading), and Kevin natural disasters. One topic of interest to the insur- Hodges (University of Reading) discussed the simula- ance industry is extratropical transition, because this tion of TCs in general circulation models (GCMs). This is difficult to predict and can lead to large impacts in is a thorny issue because GCMs, particularly when run New England and Europe. Roger Pielke Jr. (Colorado in climate mode, have resolutions that are too low to State University) analyzed the roles that urban represent TC physics with high fidelity. Yet, such low- development and population increases in coastal resolution models are the only ones that are usable for areas have on the losses resulting from hurricanes. long climate simulations, and they do form TC-like Pielke argued persuasively that long-term increases vortices whose statistics (such as the climatological in economic damage have been and will continue annual cycle in some basins, and some aspects of to be overwhelmingly due to these factors, with the interannual variability) can, to some degree, resemble influence of climate change a distant second. María those of the observed TCs. The models discussed in Uriate (Columbia University) studied the impacts of both studies show a small but significant impact of TCs on ecology, rather than economy. Uriarte used increasing greenhouse gases on simulated TC activity, data from field work in Puerto Rico, as well as an in- with a slight decrease of TC frequency in most regions. dividual-based model of a tropical forest ecosystem, Both models showed no significant increase in TC to show how hurricanes influence forests by setting intensity in spite of a SST warming of 2°–3°C. them back to an earlier successional stage. Suzana Camargo (International Research Institute The afternoon of the second day focused on TCs for Climate and Society) analyzed various aspects in past climates. This session featured three presen- of the TC activity in response to ENSO, including tations on paleotempestology, which is the study of typhoon intensity; track changes in the western North past hurricane activity using proxies in the geologic Pacific, using a novel cluster analysis; and an index of record. Kam-biu Liu (Louisiana State University) the likelihood of tropical cyclogenesis, based on large- analyzed coastal lake sediments, which record past scale environmental factors (sea surface temperature, hurricane strikes through microfossil data. Using wind shear, etc.) developed by Kerry Emanuel. The proxy records from the Gulf Coast, Liu finds that the importance of each of these environmental factors to return period for catastrophic Atlantic hurricanes is the TC response to ENSO was explored using the gen- approximately 300 years, and that a very active period esis index. Specific factors were identified as having occurred 1,000–3,800 years ago. Jeffrey Donnelly more influence than others, with different factors (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) described being more important in different regions. Vertical new proxies that his group has been developing, such shear and midlevel relative humidity are consistently as fossil trees, which may be able to provide high-reso- important in many regions, especially the western lution archives of tropical cyclone strikes dating back North Pacific near the Asian continent and the many thousands of years. Amy Frappier (University North Atlantic. Vorticity anomalies contribute most of New Hampshire) proposed a new methodology to significantly in the central Pacific (both north and obtain a high-resolution proxy record of TC events south), especially during El Niño events when tropical from stalagmites using stable isotopes. Using this cyclones tend to form closer to the equator. methodology, she was able to identify 80% of all Johnny Chan (City University of Hong Kong) dis- intense storms striking Belize in the observational cussed the interannual and interdecadal variability of record in the last 30 yr, validating the technique. typhoon activity in the western North Pacific. Chan In addition to paleotempestology, the influence of showed that ENSO influences typhoon activity in this TCs on climate was the other underinvestigated area 390 | MARCH 2007 that the workshop specifically targeted. Most climate ferred about trends in intensity during the twentieth research implicitly assumes that TCs are irrelevant century as discussed in recent papers (Emanuel 2005; to the larger-scale climate, but it is not clear that Webster et al. 2005). Landsea pointed out the increase this is necessarily the case. Robert Korty (California in the number of in situ measurements per storm Institute of Technology) described a mechanism by over time as one factor confounding the detection of which TCs may influence the thermohaline circula- trends. Other issues are the evolution of the Dvorak tion of the ocean
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