Rapid Intensification of DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0134.1 Hurricanes Is Particularly Problematic
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Rapid Intensification of a Sheared Tropical Storm
OCTOBER 2010 M O L I N A R I A N D V O L L A R O 3869 Rapid Intensification of a Sheared Tropical Storm JOHN MOLINARI AND DAVID VOLLARO Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York (Manuscript received 10 February 2010, in final form 28 April 2010) ABSTRACT A weak tropical storm (Gabrielle in 2001) experienced a 22-hPa pressure fall in less than 3 h in the presence of 13 m s21 ambient vertical wind shear. A convective cell developed downshear left of the center and moved cyclonically and inward to the 17-km radius during the period of rapid intensification. This cell had one of the most intense 85-GHz scattering signatures ever observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The cell developed at the downwind end of a band in the storm core. Maximum vorticity in the cell exceeded 2.5 3 1022 s21. The cell structure broadly resembled that of a vortical hot tower rather than a supercell. At the time of minimum central pressure, the storm consisted of a strong vortex adjacent to the cell with a radius of maximum winds of about 10 km that exhibited almost no tilt in the vertical. This was surrounded by a broader vortex that tilted approximately left of the ambient shear vector, in a similar direction as the broad precipitation shield. This structure is consistent with the recent results of Riemer et al. The rapid deepening of the storm is attributed to the cell growth within a region of high efficiency of latent heating following the theories of Nolan and Vigh and Schubert. -
Machine Learning of Atmospheric Turbulence in a Variational Multiscale Model Msc Thesis
Machine Learning of Atmospheric Turbulence in a Variational Multiscale Model MSc Thesis Martin Janssens Machine Learning of Atmospheric Turbulence in a Variational Multiscale Model MSc Thesis by Martin Janssens to obtain the degree of Master of Science at the Delft University of Technology, to be defended publicly on Tuesday August 27, 2019 at 10:00 AM. Student number: 4275780 Project duration: September 16, 2018 – August 28, 2019 Supervisor: Dr. S. J. Hulshoff, TU Delft Thesis committee: Dr. R. P.Dwight, TU Delft Dr. B. Chen, TU Delft An electronic version of this thesis is available at http://repository.tudelft.nl/. Cover image: The Starry Night, Vincent van Gogh Abstract Today’s leading projections of climate change predicate on atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs). Since the atmosphere consists of a staggering range of scales that impact global trends, but computational constraints prevent many of these scales from being directly represented in numerical simulations, GCMs require “parameterisations” - models for the influence of unresolved processes on the resolved scales. State- of-the-art parameterisations are commonly based on combinations of phenomenological arguments and physics, and are of considerably lower fidelity than the resolved simulation. In particular, the parameter- isation of low-altitude stratocumulus clouds that result from small-scale processes in sub-tropical marine boundary layers is widely considered the largest source of uncertainty that remains in contemporary GCMs’ prediction of the temperature response to a global increase in CO2. Improvements in the capacity of machine learning algorithms and the increasing availability of high- fidelity datasets from global satellite data and local Large Eddy Simulations (LES) have identified data-driven parameterisations as a high-potential option to break the deadlock. -
Investigation and Prediction of Hurricane Eyewall
INVESTIGATION AND PREDICTION OF HURRICANE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES By Matthew Sitkowski A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences) at the UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON 2012 Date of final oral examination: 4/9/12 The dissertation is approved by the following members of the Final Oral Committee: James P. Kossin, Affiliate Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Daniel J. Vimont, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Steven A. Ackerman, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Jonathan E. Martin, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Gregory J. Tripoli, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences i Abstract Flight-level aircraft data and microwave imagery are analyzed to investigate hurricane secondary eyewall formation and eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs). This work is motivated to provide forecasters with new guidance for predicting and better understanding the impacts of ERCs. A Bayesian probabilistic model that determines the likelihood of secondary eyewall formation and a subsequent ERC is developed. The model is based on environmental and geostationary satellite features. A climatology of secondary eyewall formation is developed; a 13% chance of secondary eyewall formation exists when a hurricane is located over water, and is also utilized by the model. The model has been installed at the National Hurricane Center and has skill in forecasting secondary eyewall formation out to 48 h. Aircraft reconnaissance data from 24 ERCs are examined to develop a climatology of flight-level structure and intensity changes associated with ERCs. Three phases are identified based on the behavior of the maximum intensity of the hurricane: intensification, weakening and reintensification. -
Textremes Forms the Paths of NCM014
Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations Article Published Version Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY) Open Access Yamada, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-9944, Kodama, C., Satoh, M., Sugi, M., Roberts, M. J., Mizuta, R., Noda, A. T., Nasuno, T., Nakano, M. and Vidale, P. L. (2021) Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 8 (1). ISSN 2197-4284 doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00397-1 Available at http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/98236/ It is advisable to refer to the publisher’s version if you intend to cite from the work. See Guidance on citing . Published version at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00397-1 To link to this article DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00397-1 Publisher: Springer All outputs in CentAUR are protected by Intellectual Property Rights law, including copyright law. Copyright and IPR is retained by the creators or other copyright holders. Terms and conditions for use of this material are defined in the End User Agreement . www.reading.ac.uk/centaur CentAUR Central Archive at the University of Reading Reading’s research outputs online Yamada et al. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2021) 8:11 Progress in Earth and https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00397-1 Planetary Science RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations Yohei Yamada1* , Chihiro Kodama1, Masaki Satoh2, Masato Sugi3, Malcolm J. -
Climate Science and Climate Risk: a Primer
Climate Science and Climate Risk: A Primer By Dr. Kerry A. Emanuel Professor of Atmospheric Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology email: [email protected] website: http://eaps4.mit.edu/faculty/Emanuel/ Dr. Kerry A. Emanuel | Climate Science and Climate Risk: A Primer 1 Considerably more than 90% percent of climate scientists attribute the bulk of the increase in global mean temperature over the past three to four decades to the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases that commenced with the Industrial Revolution.1 The great majority of these scientists hold that continued warming presents significant risks to humankind over the coming centuries. What scientific evidence led the scientific community to these conclusions? How robust is that evidence? To what extent should we trust uncertain projections of future climate change based on complicated global climate models? How do we deal with climate change as a problem of risk assessment and management? his essay summarizes the most important lines of not fit within the existing scientific framework. Scientists T evidence for anthropogenic climate change, confronts then try to repeat and improve on the observation to some of the stickier questions behind uncertainty in determine whether it really is an outlier. Next, they may pose climate projections, and concludes with a discussion of the one or more hypotheses to explain the observation, and if a particular risks entailed by climate change and how they are hypothesis succeeds in explaining not only that observation being quantified. but others as well, and especially if it successfully predicts The essay is structured as follows. First, a brief history of what has not yet been observed, the hypothesis may advance climate science reveals that the most important principles to the status of a theory. -
A Preliminary Observational Study of Hurricane Eyewall Mesovortices
AA PreliminaryPreliminary ObservationalObservational StudyStudy ofof HurricaneHurricane EyewallEyewall MesovorticesMesovortices Brian D. McNoldy and Thomas H. Vonder Haar Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University e-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS The observational study of fine-scale features in A series of recent case studies will be presented that demonstrate the existence of mesovortices, vortex mergers, polygonal eyewalls, and vortex crystals. All cases were collected from the GOES-8 geosynchronous satellite centered over 0°N 75°W. Some cases were taken from “Normal Operations”, meaning images are taken every 15 or 30 minutes (depending on location). In special cases, the satellite images the storm every seven minutes; this is called “Rapid Scan Operations”. Finally, in high- the eye and eyewall of intense tropical cyclones (TC) priority situations, images can be taken every minute; this is called “Super Rapid Scan Operations”. has been made possible with high temporal and spatial To view loops of all the cases using the highest temporal resolution available, visit http://thor.cira.colostate.edu/tropics/eyewall/. The following four cases are small excerpts from the full loops. resolution imagery from geosynchronous satellites. The current Geosynchronous Operational Environmental BRET, 22Aug99 (1845Z-2010Z) ALBERTO, 12Aug00 (1445Z-1915Z) Satellite (GOES) Series is capable of producing 1-km resolution visible images every minute, resulting in an immense dataset which can be used to study convective cloud tops as well as transient low-level cloud swirls. Computer models have shown that vorticity redistribution in the core of a TC can result in the formation of local vorticity maxima, or mesovortices. -
Lightning Activity in Tropical Cyclones in the South-West Indian Ocean
XV International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, 15-20 June 2014, Norman, Oklahoma, U.S.A. Lightning activity in tropical cyclones in the South-West Indian ocean Christophe Bovalo1;2 and Christelle Barthe1∗ 1Laboratoire de l’Atmosphere` et des Cyclones (LACy) – CNRS - Universite´ de La Reunion´ - Met´ eo-France,´ Saint-Denis, La Reunion,´ France 2Now at Laboratoire d’Aerologie´ (LA) – CNRS - Universite´ de Toulouse, Toulouse, France ABSTRACT: Lightning activity is investigated within tropical convective events of the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO). The World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) provides global lightning data since 2005 and is therefore a well suited network for the study of systems like tropical cyclones as they remain over ocean most of their life. Firstly, a 7-year lightning climatology over the South West Indian Ocean has been performed using the WWLLN data from 2005 to 2011. Results show the same main features presented in other studies: the ”hot spots” in this region are found in Madagascar and over the Great Lakes in East Africa (> 10-20 fl. km−2 yr−1). Lightning flashes within tropical cyclones represent 50% to 100% of the total lightning activity in some oceanic areas (between 10◦S and 20◦S). Moreover, lightning activity is more intense during the November-to-April period which corresponds to the wet/cyclonic season. Then, lightning activity in tropical storms of the basin was studied using both WWLLN data and best- tracks from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center La Reunion´ from January 2005 to May 2013. The South-West Indian Ocean is divided into three distinct regions (open ocean, Mozambique channel, and the oceanic region 400 km offshore the eastern coast of Madagascar) to account for the impact of land on the tropical storm structure. -
Examining Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensification with The
NOVEMBER 2017 M A R T I N E Z E T A L . 4401 Examining Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensification with the FLIGHT1 Dataset from 1999 to 2012 JONATHAN MARTINEZ AND MICHAEL M. BELL Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado JONATHAN L. VIGH National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ROBERT F. ROGERS Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 19 January 2017, in final form 28 July 2017) ABSTRACT A comprehensive examination of tropical cyclone (TC) kinematic and thermodynamic structure in the Atlantic basin is created from the Extended Flight Level Dataset for Tropical Cyclones (FLIGHT1, version 1.1). In situ data collected at the 700-hPa flight level by NOAA WP-3D and USAF WC-130 aircraft from 1999 to 2012 are analyzed. A total of 233 azimuthal mean profiles comprising 1498 radial legs are stratified by TC intensity and 12-h intensity change. A matrix of composite structures is created for minor (category 1 and 2) 2 and major (category 3 and above) hurricanes that are intensifying [intensity increase $10 kt (12 h) 1], steady 2 2 state [intensity change between 65 kt (12 h) 1], and weakening [intensity decrease #210 kt (12 h) 1]. Ad- ditional considerations to the impacts of age on TC structure are given as well. Axisymmetric radial com- posites reveal that intensifying TCs have statistically significant structural differences from TCs that are steady state or weakening, but that these differences also depend on the intensity of the TC. Intensifying TCs (both minor and major hurricanes) are characterized by steep tangential wind gradients radially inward of the radius of maximum tangential wind (RMW) that contribute to a ringlike structure of vorticity and inertial stability. -
IUGG03-Program.Pdf
The Science Council of Japan and sixteen Japanese scientific societies will host IUGG2003, the XXIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics. Hosts Science Council of Japan The Geodetic Society of Japan Seismological Society of Japan The Volcanological Society of Japan Meteorological Society of Japan Society of Geomagnetism and Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources The Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences The Japanese Society of Snow and Ice The Oceanographic Society of Japan The Japanese Society for Planetary Sciences The Japanese Society of Limnology Japan Society of Civil Engineers Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology The Balneological Society of Japan Japan Society of Erosion Control Engineering The Geochemical Society of Japan Special Support Hokkaido Prefecture City of Sapporo Co-Sponsor National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (JSS01 Hagiwara Symposium on Monitoring and Modeling of Earthquake and Volcanic Processes for Prediction) Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo (JSM01 Toward High Resolution Climate Models and Earth System Models) Support Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Japan Marine Science and Technology Center National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology Japan Earth and Planetary Science Joint Meeting Organization Japanese Forestry Society Japan Business -
Tropical Cyclone Tauktae
Tropical Cyclone Tauktae - Estimated Impacts Warning 7, 15 May 2021 2100 UTC PDC-1I-7A JTWC Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN EVOLVING EYE FEATURE.THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 151703Z AMSU-B 89GHZ PASS AND COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM GOA, INDIA.THE INITIAL INTENSITY 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS AND ADT OF T3.9/63KTS.THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.TC 01A IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 36.AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR VERAVAL, INDIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48.THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) REMAINS HIGH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 36.AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LAND INTERACTION.AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120, POSSIBLY -
Hurricanes: Tempests in a Greenhouse Kerry Emanuel
Hurricanes: Tempests in a greenhouse Kerry Emanuel quick Greenhouse gases make Earth’s surface hotter than it would be if the study planet were simply a blackbody radiator. That additional warming is an important driver of hurricanes. Kerry Emanuel is a professor of atmospheric sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The tropics have generally the most benign climates found ated with precipitation absorb most of the entropy produc- on Earth, with gentle breezes and small daily and seasonal tion and spare people from violent winds. But not always. temperature variations. Why, then, do tropical climates breed the most destructive wind storms known? This brief tutorial A Carnot engine explains the paradox and presents an overview of hurricane In the part of the tropics where the sea surface is warm physics. enough and the projection of Earth’s angular velocity vector onto the local vertical axis is large enough, random small- The greenhouse effect scale convective currents sometimes organize into rotating Of the solar energy that streams to Earth, about 30% is re- vortices known as tropical cyclones. In computer models of flected by clouds or the surface, and an additional small per- the tropical atmosphere, such organization can happen spon- centage is directly absorbed by atmospheric water—either taneously, but usually only if a combination of ocean tem- gaseous or condensed in clouds. The radiation that escapes perature and rotation is somewhat higher than those ob- reflection or absorption in the atmosphere is absorbed by the served in nature. In subcritical conditions, some trigger is surface, which transmits energy upward both by radiation necessary to initiate the vortices, and in the terrestrial at- and in vast convective currents whose visible manifestations mosphere tropical cyclones only develop from preexisting are the beautiful cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds that ply disturbances of independent origin. -
Hurricanes: a Century of Scientific Progress
Hurricanes: A Century of Scientific Progress Kerry Emanuel Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1. Introduction In the early 20th century, at the same time that the theories of relativity and quantum mechanics were being developed, there was essentially no basic understanding of the physics of hurricanes. The energy cycle that sustains such storms was not known, nor were the factors that controlled their movement. What was known about the structure and behavior of hurricanes was inferred largely from visual observations of clouds and damage patterns, and it was widely believed that the storm circulation extended upward only a few kilometers. By the end of the century, the structure and behavior of hurricanes had been thoroughly quantified, thanks to rapid technological progress that brought about such wonders as aircraft, radar and satellites, and the basic physics of the storms themselves as well as their intricate substructure had come to be well understood. This new understanding, coupled with the invention and rapid development of the computer, made it possible to forecast the motion of hurricanes with such accuracy that, given modern communications and transportation, loss of life from hurricanes has been virtually eliminated in the developed world. This chapter chronicles the extraordinary progress in the scientific understanding of hurricanes through the 20th century. We begin with a brief review of progress through World War II, which marked an important turning point in the science of meteorology, and continue with an account of the rapid progress made in the first two decades after the war. Section 4 discusses the very influential CISK theory that was developed in the 1960s.