UsingUsing SoilSoil MoistureMoisture ResponsesResponses toto DiagnoseDiagnose ExtremeExtreme RainfallRainfall EventsEvents AssociatedAssociated withwith TropicalTropical CyclonesCyclones Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center Jonathan L. Case1 and Christopher R. Hain2 1ENSCO, Inc./Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center; 2NASA Marshall Space Flight Center/SPoRT Center IntroductionIntroduction andand BackgroundBackground Tools,Tools, Data,Data, andand MethodsMethods AA CloserCloser LookLook atat HurricaneHurricane HarveyHarvey ImpactsImpacts onon SoilSoil Moisture:Moisture: o After a record long 12-year drought in land-falling major hurricanes in o NASA Land Information System (LIS): Land surface modeling and data assimilation framework for CountyCounty-averaged-averaged dailydaily 00-2-2 mm percentilespercentiles duringduring floodingflooding eventevent the U.S., two major hurricanes struck the U.S. during the 2017 season: simulating soil moisture, soil temperature, snowpack, and heat/moisture fluxes into the atmosphere. o SPoRT manages its own real-time instance of the LIS (called the “SPoRT-LIS”), which runs over a Harris County (Houston) Jefferson County (Beaumont/Pt. Arthur) Harvey in Texas (24-29 August) and Irma in Florida (9-11 September). Harris County TX 33-Yr SPoRT-LIS Soil Moisture Histogram for 26 Aug 2017 Jefferson County TX 33-Yr SPoRT- LIS Soil Moisture Histogram for 26 Aug 2017 Continental U.S. domain at ~3-km resolution with 6-hourly updates. 600 -- 100 ~~--~-~ ~ ;-~ - ~ ~~----~ ~ ~ ~ - - ~-~---~--~ 2 nd %: 16.55 2nd%: 19.11 o This poster highlights the modeled soil moisture response to the ~ 5th %: 21.06 5th %: 24.98 o SPoRT-LIS is disseminated to partner NOAA/NWS forecast offices. Forecasters use the data to help 10th %: 23.83 600 loth %: 28.98 _ 500 20t l1 %: 27.04 - /_Q\:11 % : 33.96 rainfall from both storms, particularly focusing on the impact of • :J Ol:11 %: 29,9,1 301.ll % : 37 .97 ·10th %: 4·1.SJ ·1otll %: 50 .!fi increase situational awareness, and make more informed decisions on drought monitoring and 500 f- 8oth %: 45 .77 74.4 % : 52.51 " 400 80. 9 % : 46.21 - OOt:h %: 54 .31 record rainfall from Hurricane Harvey. 90th %: 51 .22 >, 90th %: 59 .02 assessing areal flooding potential. V 95th %: 55.73 ~ 400 95th %: 63.81 - C 98th %: 61.76 C 98th %: 68 .65 o Modeled soil moisture responses are presented through soil moisture o .,.~ 300 ' •.,.a A 33-year county-based climatology of the SPoRT-LIS (1981-2013) is used to place current soil . ~ 300 f ~ ~ 200 - percentiles relative to a county-based, 33-year (1981-2013) soil moisture values into historical context during major rainfall events from four tropical cyclones: p 200 1- ' P, moisture climatology. Joaquin (2015), Harvey (2017), Irma (2017), and Florence (2018). 100 - 2626 AugustAugust 100 r-- 2626 AugustAugust· c • 1n 1 0 J oL--=rlLrtitt[ - 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Total Rainfall Com par1son 0-2 Relative Soil Moisture (%) Total Rainfall Comparison m 0-2 m Relative Soil Moisture ( %)
Harris County TX 33-Yr SPoRT- LIS Soil Moisture Histogram for 27 Aug 2017 Jefferson County TX 33-Yr SPoRT-LIS Soil Moisture Histogram for 27 Aug 2017 HurricaneHurricane Joaquin (2015){2015) 600 700 - - HurricaneHurricane HarveyHarvey (2017){2017) HurricaneHurricane FlorenceFlorence (2018){2018} ' ' ' HurricaneHurricane IrmaIrma (2017)(2017) ' ' ' 2nd%: 16.33 2nd %: 19.02 5th %: 20.94 5th %: 24.80 (a) MRMS Accumulated Precipitation ( mm); 1-6 Oct 2015 10th %: 2 3.83 10th %: 28.89 . (b) MRMS Accumulated Precipitation (mm); 25-30 Aug 2017 (d) MRMS Accumulated Precipitation (mm); 8-13 Sep 2017 (c) MRMS Accumulated Precipitation (mm); 13-18 Sep 2018 600 C 500 20t h %: 26.9J - 20lh %: 33.67 . ..'• .-, .. _,- ' ... . ' ' 30th %: 29 .95 30 1:11 % : 37.61 ,, ' ·.-·- : ' • .•··' ·..r -.. \ l otl1 % : 4 1 ."?9 "/Otli %: 50.99 / . 500 C --' " \• . 80!17 %: 4553 80th %: 54.11 . 400 90l1l %: 51.03 · 90th %: 58 .95 95th %: 55.39 95th % : 63.3 5 36N 'j ,' --- >, V 98th %: 61.33 ~ 400 C 96. 5 % : 64.90 .- -· -.-.- -. . C C 99. 7 % : 70.85 98t h %: 68.77 all 300 - •a 36N .,. .,. '-.------:· ' ~ 3 00 c . ' 32N ~ ' ·: .:. ' ' ' ·---. -----···. · -._,. 200 ' ' ' 200 c . ·- .. ·.-·-~ JON ' ' ' 100 ' 100 c 34N 2727 AugustAugust 2727 AugustAugust· y ~ .m ..... 0 rlTk ' 0 -m ' 0 20 40 60 " 80 100 ' 0 20 40 60 80 100 ' ' 0-2 m Relative Soil Moisture (%) 0-2 m Relative Soil Moisture (%)
Harris County TX 33-Yr SPoRT-LIS Soil Moisture Histogram for 28 Aug 2017 Jefferson County TX 33-Yr SPoRT-LIS Soil Moisture Histogram for 28 Aug 2017 600 ' ' 700 ' ' 28 N 2nd%: 16.03 2nd%: 18.62 . ' : .. ' ' 5th %: 20.78 5th %: 24.50 . •. --· ··- , ·.- ."-5 - ·t--- ~. .. ,._ ].0th %: 23.68 10th %: 28.54 . 600 C . ' 500 20th %: 26.6B 20th %: 33.37 32N ..... ' ''·······r·" ' . . :. .. ! ~ Max of 30”+ :-mu, 'Ye,: 29.7-lf 30 1:11 % : 37.TI Max of 25-30”+ Max of 40-50”+ Max of ~15-20” '/0111 'Y~ : 4 J. ."I. ;J '/Ot11 %: 5 1 .1. 9 82W BOW 18W 78' 80lh %: 45 .11'5 500 sou, %: 53 .95 . 82' " "' '" 98W 88W 94W 82 W sow 92W '°' '"' esw "' 74W 400 90t h %: 50 .85 90th %: 59 .14 >, ' 95th %: 55 .10 95th %: 63.17 V 98th %: 61.06 ~ 400 98t h %: 68.88 · C C 99.9 % : 83.40 " 99.9 % : 79.87 ~ 300 C ~ .,. C' ~ 300 c ' ~ ~ 200 C PostPost-Storm-Storm ModeledModeled 00-2-2 metermeter SPoRTSPoRT-LIS-LIS SoilSoil MoistureMoisture PercentilesPercentiles 200 c ' 100 ' 100 c SPcRT-LIS 0-2 m RSM percentile valid 06 Oct 2015 SPoRT-LIS 0-2 m RSM perc entile valid 30 Aug 2017 2828 AugustAugust 2828 AugustAugust -
-=ti:' ' • - C n ··• -,-- -"/ 0 illJl lillo: ' - 0 ' fl ' 0 0 " ~ . "' 20 40 60 80 100 20 40 60 80 100 ' 32N - -,-··-·· • ··' ·, 0-2 m Relative Soil Moisture-(% } 0-2 m Relative Soil Moisture (%)
' 36N ' . . ·''•. Harris County TX 33-Yr SPoRT-LIS Soil Moisture- Histogram for 29 Aug 2017 Jefferson County TX 33-Yr SPoRT-LIS Soil Moisture Histogram for 29 Aug 2017 600 700 ' ' 2ntl %: 15.86 ' ' ' 2 11d % : 18.26 5~ % : 20.68 5t.91 %: 24.22 lel:h % : 23.62 %: 32N 600 C l dth 28.45 35N 500 2.olh %: 26.7 0 - 26\h %: 33.20 J O't:lt %: 29 .70 :1 Ub1 % : 37.JJ. ll %: 51 .?.S . _.. I 17 %: 40.9'1. I 30N 8 .h %: 45.51 500 C ·h %: 53.96 - 400 g % : 50 .49 " " h %: 58.89 ,ON 34N % : • 62.66 >, h 54.88 h %: V • h %: 60.54 e" 400 C • h %: 68.34 - C C •99-9 % : 87 .oo •9\,9 % : 86.66 ----········· -···' ~ 300 - ' .,. •.,.a 1 : • • ·-·-···· •.. • i 300 c • ' ' '" ~ • • ----·! 200 • - • ' .. •y'- • 200 c • ' '" ' • •- - 100 '" 2929 AugustAugust - 100 c 2929 AugustAugust
10DW 94W 84W 83W 80W 79W 78W 77W 76' 94W '2W ,ow 88' es, 84W 82W SOW 11 ~ • -n rr .m •- "' 0 ' 0 mi ill "' 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 10 0 - I I I 1 1 1 - - , !,---5 ,"'o--",o--~,,,0--7"0--,JB~o--9',o-~95 98 10 20 30 70 80 90 5----c, o--~,~o--~,~o--~7~0--,J80---9fo,-- "0!9- s 98 -2 5~--,1!o0--2f0--,J3~0--7°"0--8~0--,J90,,-- -,,95- 98 0-2 m Relative Soil Moisture (%) 0-2 m Relative Soil Moisture (% ) Key for daily histograms: gray bars denote 1981-2013 climatology distribution for all model grid points TimeTime SeriesSeries ofof CountyCounty-Averaged-Averaged 00-2-2 metermeter SoilSoil MoistureMoisture PercentilesPercentiles residing in a given county; colored vertical lines are reference percentiles used by drought & hydrological communities along with tabular listing of soil moisture values; dashed vertical line is the county-averaged 0-2m Relative Soil Moisture Percentile 2015-2016 Time Series 0-2m Relative Soil Moisture Percentile 2017-2018 Time Series 0 -2m Relative Soil Moisture Percentile 2017- 2018 Time Series 0-2m Relative Soil Moisture Percentile 2018- 2019 Time Series percentile for the current day from August 2017 and corresponding tabular value listed. 100 ======~ '!!! 100 ======100 100
80 80 1------80 >------j DiscussionDiscussion/ / ConclusionsConclusions
70 70 70 :·. . : " o Analysis of soil moisture responses from four tropical cyclones (three of which had extreme flooding 60 60 60 60 rainfall) place each event in historical context, relative to a 1981-2013 climatology database. ·-.."- ·-.." -,"_ C C .. C 50 50 . . : . : : -: 50 o Each tropical cyclone resulted in a significant post-storm areal footprint of soil moisture percentiles . . . : . "~ "~ ·. ~:·. "~ .. - : '; ; ' l l " th 40 40 40 : 40 ,", above the 98 percentile, except for Hurricane Irma in Florida. ; '
.. . ::::! . ,. 30 1-,---1 30 30 r-----:-.~ ""'- " r---\____:,,,_ o Rainfall associated with Hurricane Joaquin produced the greatest pre- and post-storm contrast of soil
" ' 20 moisture, transitioning from drought to unusually wet over central & eastern South Carolina. ·. ,, 20 1--1~-11-----'I - Nueces TX Robeson NC o The residence time of post-storm wetness anomalies ranged from ~3-6 months, but varied widely 10 Victoria TX Cumberland NC ______,, .... New_Hanover_NC .... Harris TX .,...... Jefferson_TX - Craven NC among storms depending on post-storm rainfall regimes. ot"'='=S'::C::::,"'2======t======::J at======.._,'b ~'b ,,.,.'fl' ,,~.,~ o The extreme rainfall of Hurricane Harvey resulted in county-averaged soil moisture values that far <> <> exceeded the wet tail of the 1981-2013 distribution for late August in the Houston, TX and JoaquinJoaquin HarveyHarvey IrmaIrma FlorenceFlorence Beaumont, TX areas.