United Nations A/74/751–S/2020/204

General Assembly Distr.: General 18 March 2020 Security Council English Original: Russian

General Assembly Security Council Seventy-fourth session Seventy-fifth year Agenda item 109 Measures to eliminate international terrorism

Letter dated 11 March 2020 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General

I have the honour to transmit herewith a copy of an analytical document entitled “Consolidated assessment of future terrorist threats”, prepared by the Meeting of Heads of Special Services, Security Agencies and Law-Enforcement Organizations (see annex). I should be grateful if you would circulate the present letter and its annex as a document of the General Assembly, under agenda item 109, and of the Security Council.

(Signed) V. Nebenzia

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Annex to the letter dated 11 March 2020 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General

Consolidated assessment of future terrorist threats

At present, international terrorism remains a major global threat. International terrorist organizations are showing flexibility in their tactical choices, as they adapt to counter-terrorism actions, form sleeper cells, and actively use modern technology to recruit supporters and carry out attacks. The activities of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Al-Qaida, Katibat al Tawhid wal-Jihad and the terrorist alliance Levant Liberation Organization pose the greatest threat at present. The terrorist organization ISIL is moving away from the image of a quasi-state to shape the image of a global-scale international terrorist organization with a number of affiliates in different regions of the world. Although the areas under the control of ISIL in Syria and Iraq are shrinking, terrorists are moving their strongholds to other States and are maintaining their capacity by establishing the required infrastructure, including training camps to train fighters. At the same time, Syrian territory continues to serve as a springboard from which terrorists are controlling supporters and members of sleeper cells scattered throughout the world that are designed to carry out autonomous terrorist activities, including isolated attacks and individual jihad. Terrorist threats therefore persist in various regions of the world.

Activities of international terrorist organizations in the States of the Near and Middle East

The highest level of terrorist activity is still in the Near and Middle East. ISIL, Al-Qaida, Jabhat Fath al-Sham, the Levant Liberation Organization and other international terrorist organizations are operating in the region. Combat operations against ISIL in Syria and Iraq have not led to significant stabilization of the situation in those countries or in the region as a whole. Despite its numerical and territorial losses, ISIL has actually expanded its geographical presence in other regions. The militants have focused on creating sleeper cells in Syria, and ISIL affiliates have appeared in Afghanistan, Libya, the Sinai Peninsula and in several States of Africa and South-East Asia. This is greatly facilitated by the unstable social and political situation in those States, as well as by the presence in some of them (including Libya) of large markets for illegal weapons, so that, if funds are available, there is no restriction on the number of fighters who can be armed, and no fear of prosecution by the central authorities. In 2018, ISIL leaders increased their calls for terrorist acts in the Arab States of the Middle East: first because international terrorist organizations had support in the region in the form of militants returning to their countries of origin; second because of the desire to maintain control over Arab territories; and third because of the relative ease of preparation and execution of terrorist acts in the region compared to in the West. Analysis of the situation in the Near and Middle East indicates that the terrorist threat is likely to remain at a high level in the States of the region.

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Activities of international terrorist organizations in Central Asian and Transcaucasian States

The main areas of concern regarding international terrorist organizations are the Central Asian and Transcaucasian regions. The main threat for those regions is that ISIL fighters are shifting their activities to other countries, primarily Afghanistan, on account of the defeats in Syria and Iraq. Facilitating factors include the unstable military and political situation and serious socioeconomic problems in Afghanistan, difficulties in conducting, for national law enforcement agencies and the armed forces, a course on countering the fighters on several fronts simultaneously, as well as the presence of a number of different international terrorist organizations in Afghanistan. In addition to the major terrorist entities (Taliban, Al-Qaida and ISIL), there are also a number of relatively small groups operating in Afghanistan (Turkestan Islamic Party, Islamic Jihad Group, Imam al-Bukhari Battalion, Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement, Katibat al-Tawhid al-Jihad, Jamaat Ansarullah, Jund al-Khilafah and others), whose members are primarily individuals of Central Asian origin. International terrorist organizations are currently in the process of changing their tactics. To carry out their activities, those organizations make use of citizens of the Commonwealth of Independent States who are fighting in Syria and Iraq as part of various terrorist groups. Moreover, representatives of the organizations consider Russia and the CIS States as transit territories. Accordingly, those individuals use the countries of the Central Asian region to infiltrate the territory of Russia by making use of both legitimate and prohibited migration channels and also by attempting to cross the border illegally. Radical terrorist entities located on the territory of Georgia are continuing their activities in Transcaucasia. Their members are also involved in the activities of international terrorist organizations in the Middle East. Members of those organizations also use the territories of the Transcaucasian States as transit routes for shipments (cargo, ammunition, financial resources and so on). Accordingly, supporters of the terrorist group Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K), which is operating in Afghanistan, have attempted to set up logistics by using bank transfers to send funds to Azerbaijan for further transfer by courier to third countries. Taking into account the geographical location of the Transcaucasian States, the fighters of international terrorist organizations consider them as a springboard for terrorist activities against the Russian Federation, which indicates the need for more effective protection of the borders of Russia with Georgia and Azerbaijan. There have also been cases of terrorists conducting recruitment in the prison system, as the organizations seek to include in their ranks persons serving sentences in detention facilities. In general, the key threats to the Central Asian and Transcaucasian States are the return of fighters from Syria and Iraq to their countries of origin and the formation of sleeper cells within their territories.

Activities of international terrorist organizations in Europe

The European States that suffered attacks in 2018 were the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Greece, Belgium, Germany, Finland and Sweden. Various data sources indicate that 5,000–6,000 residents of Europe have joined the ranks of ISIL. In that regard, the immediate threat is posed by persons returning from combat zones with practical combat skills and also by so-called home-grown terrorists, who at first sight spear to be integrated into European society, but are in fact adherents to radical Islamist ideology.

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The main threat factor that would increase terrorist activities in the European region is the continued large number of refugees from crisis zones in North Africa and the Near and Middle East. The results of an analysis of terrorist activity in Europe indicate that terrorist acts are committed mainly by the descendants of immigrants in the second and third generations, that is residents (citizens) of European countries who have no direct ties with international terrorist organizations and have been radicalized without going abroad – in mosques, at Muslim centres or through the Internet. The radicalization of Muslims serving sentences in detention facilities is a serious threat to the security of European States. Such individuals, especially those who have returned from war zones, are actively engaged in outreach and in sh aring their combat experience, turning the penitentiary system into one of the main areas for recruitment of radicals in Western European States. In view of the above, it is expected that the high level of terrorist activity in Europe will continue.

Activities of international terrorist organizations in Africa

The situation in Africa, and particularly in the North African region, remains extremely difficult. The key terrorist organizations in the region are ISIL, Al -Qaida (Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula and the Organization of Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb countries – Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia), Boko Haram (Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Burkina Faso), Ansar Eddine (Mali), Al-Shabaab (Somalia), Ansar al-Sunna (Mozambique) and Ansar al-Islam (Burkina Faso). The international terrorist organizations with the most members are ISIL and Al-Qaida. After the defeat in Syria and Iraq, there was an exodus of some of the fighters to the Sahel zone and further south. As a result, large areas of the country are under the control of ISIL and al-Qaida enclaves. The proliferation of terrorist organizations in the Maghreb and Sahel regions was encouraged by the departure of international terrorist organizations from Iraq and Syria, the porous borders betwee n many States in the region and the continuing political instability. One of the most active international terrorist organizations in Africa is the so-called Islamic State West African Province, operating mainly in Nigeria but with cells in Chad, Niger and Cameroon. The so-called Islamic State West African Province is exploiting the extremely difficult socioeconomic situation and the acute tribal and regional tensions in Nigeria and neighbouring States to recruit new fighters, and its activities are exacerbating those problems and contributing to the continued political instability in the region. In general, the foregoing suggests that terrorist activity in the region remains at a high level.

Activities of international terrorist organizations in Asia and the Pacific and in South and Southeast Asia

The terrorist entities operating in the Asia and the Pacific region include ISIL (Pakistan), the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China), Hizb ut-Tahrir, and Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid (), Mujahideen Indonesia Timur (East Indonesia Mujahideen) and the Group (Philippines). Despite the counter-terrorism efforts of Governments in Asia and the Pacific and South-East Asia, including the entry of a number of States (Australia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia and New Zealand) into the

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international counter-ISIL coalition, terrorism remains one of their greatest challenges. The Islamist organization Jamaat Ul-Mujahideen India has been operating in India since 2018 and is conducting propaganda activities, including through the Internet, with the aim of making India a “springboard for jihad against the infidels” in the South-East Asian region. In addition, ISIL and Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent have a present there and are seeking to strengthen their position by influencing the population with ideological outreach, recruitment of new members and the establishment of links with radical groups in the region. Pakistan has witnessed the activity or terrorist entities in areas bordering Afghanistan. However, recent measures taken by Pakistan have led to destruction of the bases of foreign and local terrorist fighters. The terrorist threat in Pakistan persists, encouraged by the active support for Pakistani militants provided by international terrorist organizations based outside the country (primarily in Afghanistan). For China, terrorism is a topical issue, primarily owing to the need to ensure security in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. The State is increasing its regional cooperation in combating terrorism, including in multilateral forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Individuals from the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region are actively involved in ISIL military operations. The Chinese Government attaches great importance to counter-terrorism, in view of the extremely difficult situation in the Central Asian region bordering China caused by the activities of international terrorist organizations in Afghanistan. The main terrorist threats to States in the Asia and the Pacific region and South- East Asia are the return of terrorist fighters to their countries of origin and attempts by ISIL to collaborate with various regional terrorist groups.

Activities of international terrorist organizations in the Americas

The exit channels from North American States to war zones in Syria, Iraq and a number of other countries were practically closed in 2017 owing to measures to tighten border control. However, terrorist threats to the States of the region persist. The activities of international terrorist organizations in various regions of the world pose a threat to the United States. In particular, United States military bases outside the country are targets for international terrorist organizations, especially ISIL, Al-Qaida and Al-Shabaab. In addition, Islamist groups are doing outreach work within the United States in order to attract new supporters. South America currently remains one of the few regions where there has been no serious terrorist activity by international terrorist organizations. However, there are reports that cells of organizations such as ISIL, Al-Qaida, Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya and others are active in the region. ISIL, for instance, has conducted an active outreach campaign to attract to its ranks young people from Latin American States. Moreover, attempts by ISIS to establish reserve positions, training camps for fighters and links to local criminal networks have been noted in the region. Social media are the main tool for recruiting citizens of the Americas into the ranks of international terrorist organizations, and use of the Internet for terrorist purposes therefore remains one of the most pressing security threats. At the same time, given the trend of terrorist acts being committed by persons involved in radical ideology, one of the key tasks is to prevent attacks by so-called self-radicalized terrorists.

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In view of the above, a number of terrorist threats can be identified that will remain relevant and have an impact on the security situation in various regions of the world.

1. The threat of expanded activities of international terrorist organizations, including in view of their strengthened position in the Afghanistan-Pakistan zone.

The military defeats of international terrorist organizations in Syria and Iraq has made it more urgent for terrorist entities to find new bridgeheads. In Afghanistan, for example, radical groups are still active, controlling vast areas of the country. In addition to ISIL and the Taliban, the Haqqani Network, affiliated to the Taliban, is active. The ISIL affiliate in Afghanistan (Khorasan Province), is attempting to expand its presence in the central (Ghazni, Uruzgan), northern (Faryab, Sari Pul, Jowzjan), northeastern (Badakhshan, Kunduz) and eastern (Nangarhar, Logar, Kunar, Laghman, Nuristan) provinces of the country. While the international terrorist organizations operating in Afghanistan do not form a single terrorist underground owing to the significant differences between them, their diversity and activity is a source of long-term instability both in the country and in the region as a whole. The expansion of the area in which international terrorist organizations are present outside the immediate areas of active hostilities is expected to remain a major terrorist threat for many States.

2. The threat of the return to their countries of origin of foreign terrorist fighters who were engaged in the fighting in Syria and Iraq.

The numerical and territorial losses of international terrorist organizations in Syria and Iraq have led to the displacement of fighters with skills in mine and blast warfare and in urban combat operations to other regions, as well as the return of fighters to their countries of origin, including for the purpose of transferring their terrorist activities to those areas. Returnees, including the wives and widows of the fighters, may engage in guerrilla warfare on their own or as part of autonomous combat cells, participate in forming criminal gangs or spread radical views, including in places of detention if they are criminally prosecuted. It is expected that individuals involved in armed conflicts in Syria, Iraq and other war zones on the side of international terrorist organizations will continue to return to their countries of origin, which will lead to increased terrorist activities in various regions of the world.

3. The threat of international terrorist organizations forming sleeper cells in various regions of the world is largely the result of the expansion of the area in which terrorist entities are present, as well as the return of foreign terrorist fighters from combat zones in Syria and Iraq to their countries of origin.

Furthermore, sleeper cells may be formed by individuals who are not affiliated with terrorist entities but share a radical Islamist ideology. In that context, key factors for that threat include the supportive base that exists for international terrorist organizations in various States around the world, mainly among young people, as well as the ability of international terrorist organizations to conduct active outreach and recruitment activities, including through the Internet. In view of the above, it is expected that the threat of sleeper cells will continue to be a crucial foundation for continued terrorist activity.

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4. Threat of committing terrorist acts using new means and methods.

Recently, terrorist attacks have increasingly been carried out by lone wolves or small groups of terrorists, using vehicles, knives and improvised explosive devices that are collected at home by terrorists. Moreover, use of the tactic of so-called group terrorist attacks has been observed, in which a whole series of terrorist attacks, including single terrorist attacks, is carried out within one or two days (the use of potent toxic agents by members of international terrorist organizations is expected). High-profile attacks that result in significant loss of life are intended to terrorize the population and discredit the State authorities. Active counter-terrorism activities in Syria and Iraq have prompted terrorists to shift to guerrilla warfare, which has allowed international terrorist organizations to maintain their military and human resources and engage in subversive activities in various parts of the world. The interest of terrorists in using customized guided or programmable unmanned aerial vehicles should also be noted in this context. The relative ease with which terrorist acts can be carried out through accessible means, as well as the difficulty of identifying links between lone wolves and specific sleeper cells, if any, gives rise to the expectation that this threat will continue because of the various options for committing terrorist acts in low-cost but effective ways.

5. The threat of an increased ideological impact of international terrorist organizations, including through active use of the Internet.

Over the past few years, representatives of international terrorist organizations have been actively engaging in ideological and outreach activities with a view to continuous recruitment for terrorist entities. The amount of material available on the Internet in the languages and dialects of different regions is increasing, and the quantity of instructions for improvised explosive devices disguised as household items remains consistently high. Representatives of international terrorist organizations make use of information and communications technology, as well as outreach and recruitment work involving direct communication with individuals susceptible to ideological influence. The Internet is playing an increasingly important role in the process of self-radicalization of individuals who share the ideology of international terrorist organizations without having any link to them, and who can create independent sleeper cells, and also plan and carry out terrorist attacks. Given the wide range of opportunities offered by the Internet, it is expected that international terrorist organizations will make active use of information and communications technology, primarily for ideological outreach and recruitment purposes.

6. The threat of expansion of the sources of terrorism financing is attributed to the need of international terrorist organizations to constantly seek resources for their activities, which are funded by private donations, the illegal sale of natural resources, hostage-taking for ransom, taxation of the local population with various types of fees and other sources. At the same time, although ISIL has lost a significant part of its revenues from the smuggling of hydrocarbons from Syria and Iraq, it has found alternative sources and instruments of financing that include drug production, control of drug transit channels, the use of informal money transfer systems (in particular, hawala) and the use of cryptocurrency.

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The threat of terrorists seeking and using new sources of financing for their activities is expected to continue. The results of the analysis of terrorist threats point to the conclusion that. despite the tangible losses incurred from to the counter-terrorism activities of international coalitions in Syria and Iraq, international terrorist organizations are seeking to expand their activities. At the same time, it is noted that terrorist entities have improved their modalities and tactics, have worked systematically on the selection and involvement of new members in their ranks and have expanded their geographical presence, including through the formation of sleeper cells. In that connection, increased attention should be paid to strengthening mechanisms for international cooperation to neutralize terrorist threats. As part of such cooperation, it is important to take measures in the following areas: The rapid exchange of information on individuals and organizations involved in terrorist and extremist activities; The replenishment, systematization and use of the information available from the international counter-terrorism database; Suppression of the growing links between international terrorist organizations and representatives of transnational organized crime, who, by supplying terrorists with weapons, money and forged documents, and providing transit routes between regions of high terrorist activity and States with stable sociopolitical systems, contribute to increasing the capacity of those organizations to carry out terrorist activities; Increased cooperation to create obstacles to the active use of the information space by terrorists; Development of a legal framework to regulate the use of unmanned aerial vehicles; Identification of specific States, individuals and legal entities involved in financial and economic relations with international terrorist organizations with a view to subsequently suppressing the criminal activities that are financing terrorism ; Counter-terrorism efforts will be more effective if Member States develop a common understanding and assessment of predicted terrorist threats and work together. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the role of the United Nations and its counter-terrorism entities, which have considerable experience and extensive tools to counter terrorism in accordance with the norms of international law.

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