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General Assembly Security Council Seventy-Fourth Session Seventy-Fifth Year Agenda Item 109 Measures to Eliminate International Terrorism

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General Assembly Security Council Seventy-Fourth Session Seventy-Fifth Year Agenda Item 109 Measures to Eliminate International Terrorism United Nations A/74/751–S/2020/204 General Assembly Distr.: General 18 March 2020 Security Council English Original: Russian General Assembly Security Council Seventy-fourth session Seventy-fifth year Agenda item 109 Measures to eliminate international terrorism Letter dated 11 March 2020 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General I have the honour to transmit herewith a copy of an analytical document entitled “Consolidated assessment of future terrorist threats”, prepared by the Meeting of Heads of Special Services, Security Agencies and Law-Enforcement Organizations (see annex). I should be grateful if you would circulate the present letter and its annex as a document of the General Assembly, under agenda item 109, and of the Security Council. (Signed) V. Nebenzia 20-04203 (E) 250320 310320 *2004203* A/74/751 S/2020/204 Annex to the letter dated 11 March 2020 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General Consolidated assessment of future terrorist threats At present, international terrorism remains a major global threat. International terrorist organizations are showing flexibility in their tactical choices, as they adapt to counter-terrorism actions, form sleeper cells, and actively use modern technology to recruit supporters and carry out attacks. The activities of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Al-Qaida, Katibat al Tawhid wal-Jihad and the terrorist alliance Levant Liberation Organization pose the greatest threat at present. The terrorist organization ISIL is moving away from the image of a quasi-state to shape the image of a global-scale international terrorist organization with a number of affiliates in different regions of the world. Although the areas under the control of ISIL in Syria and Iraq are shrinking, terrorists are moving their strongholds to other States and are maintaining their capacity by establishing the required infrastructure, including training camps to train fighters. At the same time, Syrian territory continues to serve as a springboard from which terrorists are controlling supporters and members of sleeper cells scattered throughout the world that are designed to carry out autonomous terrorist activities, including isolated attacks and individual jihad. Terrorist threats therefore persist in various regions of the world. Activities of international terrorist organizations in the States of the Near and Middle East The highest level of terrorist activity is still in the Near and Middle East. ISIL, Al-Qaida, Jabhat Fath al-Sham, the Levant Liberation Organization and other international terrorist organizations are operating in the region. Combat operations against ISIL in Syria and Iraq have not led to significant stabilization of the situation in those countries or in the region as a whole. Despite its numerical and territorial losses, ISIL has actually expanded its geographical presence in other regions. The militants have focused on creating sleeper cells in Syria, and ISIL affiliates have appeared in Afghanistan, Libya, the Sinai Peninsula and in several States of Africa and South-East Asia. This is greatly facilitated by the unstable social and political situation in those States, as well as by the presence in some of them (including Libya) of large markets for illegal weapons, so that, if funds are available, there is no restriction on the number of fighters who can be armed, and no fear of prosecution by the central authorities. In 2018, ISIL leaders increased their calls for terrorist acts in the Arab States of the Middle East: first because international terrorist organizations had support in the region in the form of militants returning to their countries of origin; second because of the desire to maintain control over Arab territories; and third because of the relative ease of preparation and execution of terrorist acts in the region compared to in the West. Analysis of the situation in the Near and Middle East indicates that the terrorist threat is likely to remain at a high level in the States of the region. 2/8 20-04203 A/74/751 S/2020/204 Activities of international terrorist organizations in Central Asian and Transcaucasian States The main areas of concern regarding international terrorist organizations are the Central Asian and Transcaucasian regions. The main threat for those regions is that ISIL fighters are shifting their activities to other countries, primarily Afghanistan, on account of the defeats in Syria and Iraq. Facilitating factors include the unstable military and political situation and serious socioeconomic problems in Afghanistan, difficulties in conducting, for national law enforcement agencies and the armed forces, a course on countering the fighters on several fronts simultaneously, as well as the presence of a number of different international terrorist organizations in Afghanistan. In addition to the major terrorist entities (Taliban, Al-Qaida and ISIL), there are also a number of relatively small groups operating in Afghanistan (Turkestan Islamic Party, Islamic Jihad Group, Imam al-Bukhari Battalion, Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement, Katibat al-Tawhid al-Jihad, Jamaat Ansarullah, Jund al-Khilafah and others), whose members are primarily individuals of Central Asian origin. International terrorist organizations are currently in the process of changing their tactics. To carry out their activities, those organizations make use of citizens of the Commonwealth of Independent States who are fighting in Syria and Iraq as part of various terrorist groups. Moreover, representatives of the organizations consider Russia and the CIS States as transit territories. Accordingly, those individuals use the countries of the Central Asian region to infiltrate the territory of Russia by making use of both legitimate and prohibited migration channels and also by attempting to cross the border illegally. Radical terrorist entities located on the territory of Georgia are continuing their activities in Transcaucasia. Their members are also involved in the activities of international terrorist organizations in the Middle East. Members of those organizations also use the territories of the Transcaucasian States as transit routes for shipments (cargo, ammunition, financial resources and so on). Accordingly, supporters of the terrorist group Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K), which is operating in Afghanistan, have attempted to set up logistics by using bank transfers to send funds to Azerbaijan for further transfer by courier to third countries. Taking into account the geographical location of the Transcaucasian States, the fighters of international terrorist organizations consider them as a springboard for terrorist activities against the Russian Federation, which indicates the need for more effective protection of the borders of Russia with Georgia and Azerbaijan. There have also been cases of terrorists conducting recruitment in the prison system, as the organizations seek to include in their ranks persons serving sentences in detention facilities. In general, the key threats to the Central Asian and Transcaucasian States are the return of fighters from Syria and Iraq to their countries of origin and the formation of sleeper cells within their territories. Activities of international terrorist organizations in Europe The European States that suffered attacks in 2018 were the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Greece, Belgium, Germany, Finland and Sweden. Various data sources indicate that 5,000–6,000 residents of Europe have joined the ranks of ISIL. In that regard, the immediate threat is posed by persons returning from combat zones with practical combat skills and also by so-called home-grown terrorists, who at first sight spear to be integrated into European society, but are in fact adherents to radical Islamist ideology. 20-04203 3/8 A/74/751 S/2020/204 The main threat factor that would increase terrorist activities in the European region is the continued large number of refugees from crisis zones in North Africa and the Near and Middle East. The results of an analysis of terrorist activity in Europe indicate that terrorist acts are committed mainly by the descendants of immigrants in the second and third generations, that is residents (citizens) of European countries who have no direct ties with international terrorist organizations and have been radicalized without going abroad – in mosques, at Muslim centres or through the Internet. The radicalization of Muslims serving sentences in detention facilities is a serious threat to the security of European States. Such individuals, especially those who have returned from war zones, are actively engaged in outreach and in sh aring their combat experience, turning the penitentiary system into one of the main areas for recruitment of radicals in Western European States. In view of the above, it is expected that the high level of terrorist activity in Europe will continue. Activities of international terrorist organizations in Africa The situation in Africa, and particularly in the North African region, remains extremely difficult. The key terrorist organizations in the region are ISIL, Al -Qaida (Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula and the Organization of Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb countries – Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia), Boko Haram (Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Burkina Faso), Ansar Eddine (Mali), Al-Shabaab (Somalia), Ansar al-Sunna (Mozambique)
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