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Existent Terrorism in Indonesia and the Opportunities for the Growth of Radical Islam and ISIS September, 2016

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Existent Terrorism in Indonesia and the Opportunities for the Growth of Radical Islam and ISIS September, 2016 ISS Risk Special Report: Existent Terrorism in Indonesia and the Opportunities for the Growth of Radical Islam and ISIS September, 2016 Intelligent Security Solutions Holding Limited Room 501, 5/f, Chung Ying Building 20 Connaught Road West Sheung Wan Hong Kong Phone: +852 5619 7008 China Phone: +861 3910 9907 39 www.issrisk.com Copyright Intelligent Security Solutions Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, photocopied, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without the express prior consent of Intelligent Security Solutions Limited. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction.............................................................................................................................................. 2 Contextualisation ..................................................................................................................................... 4 1. Political backdrop to today‟s terrorist landscape ............................................................................. 4 2. The consequences brought by globalisation of jihad to local groups ............................................. 5 a) Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) ................................................................................................................. 6 b) Free Aceh Movement (GAM) ...................................................................................................... 8 c) Laskar Jihad (LJ) ......................................................................................................................... 9 The 5th wave: A new international influence .......................................................................................... 9 1. From al-Qaeda to Islamic State ...................................................................................................... 9 2. Camp Bucca .................................................................................................................................. 11 3. Al-Qaeda in Indonesia ................................................................................................................... 12 4. Abu Bakar Ba‟asyir ........................................................................................................................ 15 5. Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid, JAT ..................................................................................................... 16 Government counter-actions and responses ........................................................................................ 23 SYRIA: Catalysts to the journey and the results of the connectivity ..................................................... 27 Channels to Syria .............................................................................................................................. 29 Chronology of ISIS related events ........................................................................................................ 32 The medium to long term risks .......................................................................................................... 44 ©ISS Risk 2016 Page | 1 Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Abstract In contrast to several countries with large Muslim populations within Asia and further afar, the Republic of Indonesia has remained a country relatively free of a religiously motivated radical militant population. The environmental conditions that prevented such a significant shift towards radicalism – as have also been seen in other Islamic nations – included, but were not limited to, an authoritarian government and strong Asian ethos and influence upon the practice of religion within the country. Both these pillars are helping in curtailing the growth of radical or extreme Islamic ideological fundamentalism to date. The challenge facing Indonesia, as it is for many countries across the globe, is squarely one of the growth of jihadism. Jihadism has experienced an evolution over the past four decades, not unlike many facets of globalisation under the auspices of modernity. Specific waves of radicalisation have occurred during this forty year period, these elements what they mean for the evolution of radical Islam in Indonesia, are identified in this report. The terrorist campaigns waged by what were historically „Islamist separatist groups‟ and the now growing and disruptive presence of „Pan-Islamism‟ extremism generally, has altered the fabric of radical islamification over this period. The key strand of DNA connecting the evolution of global jihadism is undoubtedly the evolving connectivity of the ideology. Introduction Most certainly the strength of governmental authoritarianism has waned over recent decades within Indonesia as it modernises and liberalises; these „forces‟ in turn contribute, to a degree, to the tempering of interpretations of Islam within Indonesia. Yet many of the changes have also helped to ensure that extremists remain on the margins of both its religious and social society, they have also „allowed‟ for this sub-culture to germinate at its fringes, to inhabit an existence in the shadow of mainstream society and from there potentially thrive. This ostracised, largely excluded element – albeit at its own behest – has existed for a long time in Indonesia. It has been carried along by the undercurrent of radicalism found growing not just within Indonesia but currently across much of Southeast Asia. This phenomenon is what poses the newest and most challenging security threat to the Indonesian people, their government, their sovereign integrity and the country‟s international investment profile. The nascent existence of this undercurrent of radicalism has spawned groups such as Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), which grew from a national level threat to a serious transnational regional threat by capitalising significantly on their relationship with al-Qaeda (AQ) into the ©ISS Risk 2016 Page | 2 Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis mid-2000‟s. Despite the contraction of JI, the country‟s then most potent terrorist group, and the parallel simultaneous contraction of AQ in Southeast Asia in the late 2000s, the resiliency and continuous reinvention of Islamic fundamentalism poses a vexing question for the government in the past two decades. It is a question that has yet to be properly answered outside of attempted de-radicalisation programs. As well intended as the treating of its symptoms has been to date by the Indonesian government and several NGOs, the root causes and inspirations remain and are resurfacing in a turbulent period of Islam‟s modern history. The government has attempted to resolve this problem at the grassroots level – the granting and the implementation of Sharia Law within the Ache region for example – but religious radicalism remains a persistent and growing issue faced by the country. It is the exponential risk of latent growth borne of this impasse that ISIS seeks to exploit, feed and capitalise upon. As has been witnessed elsewhere in the region, once ISIS establish their local footprint, this is then converted into a springboard or platform to grow their attempts to establish their global Caliphate aspirations. ISIS, as they have made repeatedly clear, has the end goal of establishing and maintaining a global caliphate. In 2014, the terrorist organisation circulated a map illustrating the areas which they planned to have acquired within the next five years, a veritable Five Year Plan. This map includes the entire Middle East, North Africa, large areas of Asia including India and extending to Kazakhstan, and even large parts of Europe such as Spain, Greece, and Austria. It is important to recognise however that ISIS‟ current operations are not solely tied to these purported plans. In the name of the Caliphate, the group is also actively recruiting sympathisers and aligning local extremist groups across the Southeast Asia region. Having already established formal links to Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia, it is clear that ISIS is fully seizing operational opportunities across the region. To this end, ISS Risk is currently in the process of producing reports on terrorism for each of the individual countries throughout Asia. This report is a segment of this project, focusing specifically on Indonesia. In order to illustrate the role of ISIS and, more generally, terrorism in Indonesia, we have provided an outline and assessment of terrorism in its recent history. This chronological account brings us to the current state of terrorism in Indonesia today. Our analysis draws clear parallels between the previous role of al-Qaeda and the current role of ISIS opportunistically feeding off the global undercurrent of radicalisation within Islam and instigating equally global initiatives which delve into and drive domestic affairs of this country. ©ISS Risk 2016 Page | 3 Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis As you will see in the sections that follow, there are dominant groups, such as Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), some are willing to associate and carry out attacks in the name of ISIS, but in actuality are following an entrenched vision of their own extremism. ISIS is the current means to an end. Furthermore
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