The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

The U.S. Global Change Research Program 1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW • Suite 250 • Washington, D.C., 20006 USA +1.202.223.6262 (voice) • +1.202.223.3065 (fax) http://www.globalchange.gov/ Subcommittee on Global Change Research contact information Thomas Karl Jonathan Pershing Department of Commerce Department of State Chair Joann Roskoski U. S. Global Change Research Program Office Thomas Armstrong National Science Foundation Department of the Interior 1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Vice Chair, Adaptation Research Michael Slimak Suite 250 Environmental Protection Agency Washington, DC 20006 Mike Freilich 202-223-6262 (voice) National Aeronautics and Space Administration Alan Thornhill 202-223-3065 (fax) Vice Chair, Integrated Observations Department of the Interior [email protected] Timothy Killeen Linwood Vincent www.globalchange.gov National Science Foundation Department of Defense Vice Chair, Strategic Planning

William Breed EXECUTIVE OFFICE AND U.S. Agency for International Development OTHER LIAISONS

John Balbus Sherburne Abbott Department of Health and Human Services White House Office of Science and Photography Credits Technology Policy William Hohenstein Clouds, ©iStockphotos.com/Dave Raboin (front cover; page 3, section 3:3) Coastal Storm 1-RF (front section); Department of Agriculture Jason Bordoff Earth globe, ©iStockphotos.com/Miroslaw Pieprzyk (front cover and introduction; Section 3:2 and 3:3, pages Council on Environmental Quality 1, 3, 5, 9, 19, 35); Section 1:I, drought, ©iStockphotos.com/ Tobias Helbig; Indiana flood,© iStockphotos.com/ Jack Kaye Tony campbell ©Warren Faildey-Weatherstock.com (page 4, Hurricane 16-RF; page 8, Storm Clouds 6-RF; National Aeronautics and Space Administration Katharine Gebbie page 18, Ice Storm 1-RF; page 34, Blizzard 3-rf); NOAA (front cover- polar bears, melting ice, drought; Page 3, National Institute of Standards and Technology permafrost). Chester Koblinsky Department of Commerce Stuart Levenbach Office of Management and Budget Linda Lawson Department of Transportation Rick Duke Department of Energy Leonard Hirsch Climate Change Technology Program Smithsonian Institution Margaret McCalla Anna Palmisano Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Department of Energy

This document describes the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) for FY 2011. It provides a summary of the achievements of the program, an analysis of the progress made, and budgetary information. It thereby responds to the annual reporting requirements of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Section 102, P. L. 101-606). It does not express any regulatory policies of the United States To obtain a copy of this document place an order at the Global Change Research or any of its agencies, or make any findings of fact that could serve as predicates for regulatory action. Information Office (GCRIO) web site: www.gcrio.org/orders. Agencies must comply with required statutory and regulatory processes before they could rely on any statements in this document or by the USGCRP as a basis for regulatory action. The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

OUR CHANGING PLANET

A Report by the U.S. Global Change Research Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

A Supplement to the President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2011 January 2011,

Members of Congress:

On behalf of the National Science and Technology Council, I am transmitting a copy of Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011. The report describes the activities and plans of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) established under the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990. The USGCRP coordinates and integrates scientific research on climate and global change and is supported by 13 participating departments and agencies of the U.S. government. This Fiscal Year 2011 edition of Our Changing Planet highlights recent advances and progress made by participating agencies and includes budget information on each agency’s contribution.

This report describes a program in transition. In accordance with the GCRA, the USGCRP agencies requested guidance from the National Research Council on how to best meet the changing needs of the nation to understand climate change and respond to its impacts, and the NRC responded with a 2009 report entitled “Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change”. In accord with that report’s recommendations, the USGCRP is undergoing a strategic realignment that will ensure that the science produced is maximally useful for decision makers at all scales.

As described in the new edition of Our Changing Planet, the program going forward will place greater emphasis on impacts, vulnerabilities, and on understanding the options for adapting to the changing climate. The program will also continue its long-standing support for activities that contribute to a better understanding of the Earth system, including observations, research, and predictive modeling. All of these focuses will be reflected in the USGCRP’s new strategic plan and its National Climate Assessment.

The USGCRP is committed to its mission to build a knowledge base that informs human responses to global change through coordinated and integrated federal programs of research, education, communication, and decision support. I appreciate the close cooperation of the participating agencies, and I look forward to working with the Congress in the continued development and implementation of this essential national program.

Sincerely,

John P. Holdren Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy Assistant to the President for Science and Technology

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Our Changing Planet FY 2011

I PROGRAM OVERVIEW...... 1

II advice and guidance for the usgcrp...... 5 III Strategic usgcrp elements...... 9 A. Integrated Observations ...... 10 B. Fundamental Research...... 11 C. Adaptation Research...... 12 D. End-to-End Modeling...... 12 E. Assessment...... 13 F. Support for Climate Services ...... 14 G. Communications, Outreach, and Education...... 15 H. Scientific-Societal Areas of Interest...... 15 I. USGCRP-Supported International Activities...... 16 IV usgcrp recent progress & fy 2011 plans...... 19 V program activity description by agency/department...... 35 VI USGCRP BUDGET ANALYSIS BY FOCUS AREA AND AGENCY/DEPARTMENT...... 67 APPENDIX GLOSSARY AND ACRONYMS...... 81

The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

OUR CHANGING PLANET

THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM FOR FY 2010 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

PB OUR CHANGING PLANET I PROGRAM OVERVIEW

he U.S. Global Change Research Program (US- The report disaggregated climate change impacts on TGCRP) brings together 13 agencies into a single the United States into nine regions and seven sectors. interagency program.1 The program is currently in a A central finding of the report was that the vast ma- period of transition. A strategic planning process has jority of climate scientists agree that global warming begun that will restructure the program to improve is unequivocal and primarily human-induced. The research for decisionmaking and to better meet the report also identified widespread climate-related needs of the Nation. impacts that are occurring now in the United States and are expected to increase: Growing out of interagency activities and planning that began in 1988-1989, creation of the USGCRP en- ergized cooperative interagency activities, with each agency bringing its strength to the collaborative ef- GUIDING VISION fort. In 1990, the USGCRP received congressional sup- port under the Global Change Research Act (GCRA, P.L. 101-606), which called for “a comprehensive and nation, globally engaged integrated United States research program which will Aand guided by science, assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, meeting the challenges of predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.”2 In 2001, President Bush climate and global change established the Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) to investigate uncertainties and set research priorities in climate change science, aiming to fill gaps in understanding within a few years.3 In the fol- • Climate change is expected to stress water lowing year, it was announced that the USGCRP and resources. Water supply and demand is already CCRI together would become the Climate Change altered and will continue to change how, when, Science Program (CCSP). The USGCRP label re- and where events causing more significant stress mained attached to many of the program’s activities. will occur. Water resource management processes Now, consistent with the statutory language of the and infrastructure must adapt to new rates and GCRA, the whole effort continues to move forward in intensities of water supply and demand events. the Obama Administration as the USGCRP. Dry regions are generally projected to become drier and wet areas wetter. The intensity of both In June 2009, the USGCRP released a report entitled droughts and floods will further stress systems Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. The built on the assumption of little change. report summarized the science and impacts of climate change in the United States, now and in the future, • Crop and livestock production increasingly and included results not available during the prepara- will be challenged in a warmer climate. Each tion of previous major national and global assess- plant variety has an optimal temperature for ments. The report was produced by a consortium of vegetative growth, with growth dropping off as experts from the 13 USGCRP participating agencies temperatures increase or decrease. Similarly, a and from several major universities and research insti- plant will produce seed within a range of tem- tutes. It went through extensive reviews by the public, peratures; outside of this range, the plant will not “blue ribbon” experts, and U.S. federal agencies. reproduce. For example, corn fails to reproduce at temperatures above 35°C (95°F) and soybean 1. See www.usgcrp.gov/ will fail to reproduce at temperatures above 39°C 2. See www.gcrio.org/gcact1990.html (102°F). 3. See www.climatescience.gov/about/ccri.htm

PB 1 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

• Risks to human health will increase. These will Reports recently released by the National Acad- include harmful health impacts related to heat emies’ National Research Council (NRC), discussed stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, and below, provide recommendations for organizing the diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. research and responses needed to better understand and address the challenges and opportunities of • Climate change will interact with many other climate variability and change. More specifically, social and environmental stresses to create larger recommendations were made to restructure the impacts than would any one of these stresses USGCRP around “…the end-to-end climate change alone. Heat-advisory days also generate air-qual- problem, from understanding causes and processes ity warnings because higher air temperatures to supporting actions needed to cope with the result in greater concentrations of ground-level impending societal problems of climate change.” ozone. In addition, energy production is likely The USGCRP is committed to supporting a balanced to be constrained by rising temperatures and portfolio of fundamental and application-oriented limited water supplies in many regions while research activities, from expanded modeling efforts demand continues to increase. to studies of coupled human-natural systems and institutional resilience. Plans are being developed The report concludes with the finding that the future to boost adaptation research; to bolster the capac- climate and its resulting impacts on society depend ity to monitor change and its impacts; to produce on choices made today. Even if societies substantially the integrated assessments of the pace, patterns, reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases, some and regional impacts of climate change that will be changes are unavoidable due to millennium-scale needed by decisionmakers; and to make climate data processes in the atmosphere and oceans. Nonethe- and information more easily accessible. less, the choices that we make today about mitigation will affect both the adaptation choices we voluntarily The USGCRP is directed by the Subcommittee for make now when preparing for the future and the Global Change Research (SGCR), which falls under choices we may be forced to make in the future. the National Science and Technology Council. The Careful planning and assessment of climate change SGCR comprises representatives from 13 depart- impacts will be important for effective mitigation and ments and agencies and is led by a Chair from one adaptation policies. of the participating agencies (currently from the Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and The USGCRP continues to support a variety of Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]). In order to research activities to gain a more detailed predictive align the program’s governance with the needs, Vice- understanding of climate change. Also, the program Chairs have been identified for Strategic Planning, is undergoing a period of restructuring and transi- Integrated Observations, and Adaptation Research. tion to enable better response to the impacts already Additional vice-chairs will be identified as needed. identified and to reflect the changing needs of soci- The program is supported by the USGCRP Integra- ety. Increased emphasis is being placed on bridging tion and Coordination Office and conducts many of the significant gaps between estimating how much its activities through interagency working groups climate may change and the effects these changes that plan and implement research and crosscutting may have on society, including ecosystem services, activities, such as communications, decision support, water and energy resources, natural resource utiliza- and information and data concerns. The Office of tion, human health, and societal well-being. The Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and Office of USGCRP is making a strong commitment to provid- Management and Budget (OMB) work closely with ing information that will better inform decisions the SGCR, the Integration and Coordination Office, across various scales and sectors in order to reduce and the interagency working groups to establish vulnerabilities and improve resilience to climate research priorities and funding plans to ensure variability and change. This change represents a dra- that the program is aligned with national priorities, matic increase in the scope of the USGCRP because of reflects agency planning, and meets the requirements the magnitude of the effort required to address these of the GCRA. In preparation for the FY 2011 crosscut new aspects. budget, the USGCRP agencies began an interagency

2 3 OUR CHANGING PLANET

final section of this report provides an analysis of mission the USGCRP budget by focus area and the agencies/ departments involved.

o build a knowledge Tbase that informs human responses to climate and global change through coordinated and integrated federal programs of research, education, communication, and decision support

discussion that involves more coordination and alignment of agency efforts across strategic program elements.

The 13 departments and agencies participating in the USGCRP are as follows:

• Department of Agriculture (USDA) • Department of Commerce (DOC) • Department of Defense (DOD) • Department of Energy (DOE) • Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) • Department of the Interior (DOI) • Department of State (DOS) • Department of Transportation (DOT) • Agency for International Development (USAID) • Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) • National Science Foundation (NSF) • Smithsonian Institution (SI)

The FY 2011 budget requests $2.7 billion for USGCRP programs—an increase of about 24% over the FY 2010 level.4 This increase reflects the expanded needs discussed above and represents a commitment by the Obama Administration to the USGCRP. The

4. See page 342, Analytical Perspectives FY 2011, www. whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2011/ assets/spec.pdf

2 3 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

4 PB OUR CHANGING PLANET II ADVICE AND GUIDANCE FOR THE USGCRP

he program often has sought guidance from The authors identified six top priorities: Tthe NRC, as required by the GCRA, and other external sources to provide perspective for the • Reorganize the program around integrated program and to ensure that key aspects of global scientific-societal issues to facilitate crosscutting change research are not overlooked. The NRC report research focused on understanding the interac- entitled Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet tions among the climate, human, and envi- the Challenges of Climate Change5, provided high-level ronmental systems and on supporting societal and independent advice on the program strategy and responses to climate change. evolution. Its authors concluded that the program helps provide the scientific foundation required • Establish a U.S. climate observing system, de- to address the urgent needs of society in respond- fined as including physical, biological, and social ing to climate change, but that the future program observations, to ensure that the collection of data should be broader in scope and should strive to play needed to address climate change is initiated or a key role in informing decisionmaking. This would continued. require transforming how climate change research is organized at the Federal level and incorporated into • Develop the science base and infrastructure to public policy. support a new generation of coupled Earth sys- tem models to improve attribution and prediction of high-impact regional weather and climate, to initialize seasonal to decadal climate forecasting, 5. NRC, 2009: Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet and to provide predictions of impacts affecting the Challenges of Climate Change, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 254 pp.

PB 5 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

adaptive capacities and vulnerabilities of envi- A fifth, overarching report is in preparation. These ronmental and human systems. reports are consistent with the previous “Restructur- ing” report and provide a comprehensive set of guid- • Strengthen research on adaptation, mitigation, ing principles that will serve to inform the USGCRP’s and vulnerability. strategic planning process.

• Initiate a national assessment process with In 2009, planning for a National Climate Adaptation broad stakeholder participation to determine Summit was initiated in order to examine how the the risks and costs of climate change impacts United States could best incorporate adaptation into on the United States and to evaluate options for the ongoing planning and implementation of climate responding. research and climate services. The Summit took place in Washington, DC, on 25-27 May 2010. This event • Coordinate Federal efforts to provide climate ser- brought together approximately 180 invited users vices (scientific information, tools, and forecasts) and providers of climate-adaptation information to routinely to decisionmakers. examine the needs, knowledge, and roles required for effective adaptation to climate change, with a goal of In addition to the “Restructuring” report, the US- informing Federal, state, regional, and local climate GCRP recognizes the value of the recent suite of adaptation efforts, including the planning of the congressionally requested NRC reports known as Federal Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task America’s Climate Choices. Four reports that make Force and the USGCRP.6 up America’s Climate Choices are: The Summit provided an important venue for • Advancing the Science of Climate Change, which discussing the challenges and opportunities sur- concludes that “the nation needs a flexible, rounding climate change adaptation, which is seen comprehensive, and integrative climate change as increasingly necessary to complement mitigation science enterprise, one that not only contributes of greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change and to our fundamental understanding of climate climate impacts are no longer a primarily Federal change but also informs and expands America’s concern. Presentations at the Summit described climate choices” by emphasizing research to creative new private sector, state, regional, and local improve understanding of human-environment programs that address climate challenges, many of systems; research to support effective responses which span the levels of government and between the to climate change; and tools and approaches to public and private sectors. The Summit also high- improve both understanding and responses. lighted a variety of new scientific tools and programs, including very high-resolution climate models, new • Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, observational networks designed to document cli- which concludes that “there is an urgent need for mate change and impacts, and integrated analytical U.S. action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions” methods that draw together physical science, ecology, and gives guidance on how to do so. and social science. The outcome of the summit was a report providing information and suggestions for • Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change, which consideration by federal decisionmakers and other recommends the development of a national stakeholders as they continue to craft and refine adaptation strategy that would include better strategies, programs, and policies to address climate attribution and assessment of climate change change adaptation.7 Input gained from the Summit impacts and vulnerabilities. will be used to inform adaptation activities of the USGC R P. • Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change, which provides guidance concerning the need for adaptive management; systems and services to 6. See www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ support decisionmaking; and improvements in ceq/Interagency-Climate-Change-Adaptation-Progress- communication and education on climate-related Report.pdf. issues. 7. Report available at www.joss.ucar.edu/events/2010/ncas/ ncas_report.pdf.

6 7 OUR CHANGING PLANET

• In addition to these external sources of advice • Recommendation 5: Improve understanding of the and guidance, the USGCRP undertook a self- most effective ways to reduce the rate and magnitude assessment exercise and included it as a part of climate change, as well as unintended consequences of the 2009 Global Climate Change Impacts in the of such activities. Impacts of climate change during United States report. Below is a summary of the this century and beyond are projected to be far recommendations from that report. larger and more rapid in scenarios in which greenhouse gas concentrations continue to grow • Recommendation 1: Expand our understanding of rapidly compared to scenarios in which concen- climate change impacts. There is a clear need to trations grow more slowly. Additional research increase understanding of how ecosystems, will help identify the optimal mix of mitigation social and economic systems, human health, and options necessary to control the rate and mag- infrastructure will be affected by climate change nitude of climate change. In addition to their in the context of other stresses. intended reduction of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, mitigation options also • Recommendation 2: Refine ability to project climate have the potential for unintended consequences, change, including extreme events, at local scales. One which should be examined in future research. of the main messages to emerge from the past decade of synthesis and assessments is that while • Recommendation 6: Enhance understanding of how climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal society can adapt to climate change. There is cur- of regional variability. There is an indisputable rently limited knowledge about the ability of need to improve understanding of climate system communities, regions, and sectors to adapt to effects at these smaller scales, because these are future climate change. It is important to improve often the scales of decisionmaking in society. understanding of how to enhance society’s capac- ity to adapt to a changing climate in the context • Recommendation 3: Expand capacity to provide deci- of other environmental stresses. It is also impor- sionmakers and the public with relevant information tant to carry out regular assessments of adapta- on climate change and its impacts. The United States tion measures that address combined scenarios has tremendous potential to create more compre- of future climate change, population growth, and hensive measurement, archive, and data-access economic development paths. systems and to convey needed information that could provide great benefit to society.

• Recommendation 4: Improve understanding of thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in climate or ecosystems. Non-linear changes, especially those related to positive feedbacks, could have significant impacts on future climate, and lead to irreversible changes such as species extinction.

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8 PB The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011 OUR CHANGING PLANET III STRATEGIC USGCRP ELEMENTS

ased on the 2003 strategic plan, the USGCRP climate and related systems may change in the Bhas organized itself around seven main future; understanding the sensitivity and adaptability research elements and a number of crosscutting of different natural and managed ecosystems activities to coordinate scientific research and the flow of information through interdisciplinary and interagency working groups. These research STRATEGIC USGCRP ELEMENTS elements included atmospheric composition, climate variability and change, the global water cycle, land- (PRELIMINARY LIST) use and land-cover change, the global carbon cycle, A. Integrated Observations ecosystems, and human contributions and responses to environmental change. The program also has B. Fundamental Research assembled crosscutting working groups that focused C. Adaptation Research on communications, education, observations, and D. End-to-end Modeling international research and cooperation. The working E. Assessment groups traditionally focused on meeting the needs F. Support for Climate Services of the five goals outlined in the 2003 strategic plan, including: improving knowledge of the Earth’s past G. Communications, Outreach, and present climate and environment, including its and Education natural variability, and improving understanding H. Scientific-Societal Areas of the causes of observed variability and change; of Interest improving quantification of the forces bringing about I. USGCRP-Supported International changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems; Activities reducing uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s

PB 9 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

and human systems to climate and related global as recent recommendations for restructuring the changes; and exploring the uses and identifying program. This has led to the identification of a set of the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks strategic program elements that will be needed for and opportunities related to climate variability and realizing this “end-to-end” approach. These elements change. range from research to decision support and include fundamental research; integrated observations; These traditional strengths of the program that end-to-end modeling; national climate assessment; support a wide variety of research activities to gain adaptation science; support for climate services; more detailed predictive understanding of climate communications, outreach, and education; scientific- change must be maintained. However, there remain societal areas of interest; and USGCRP-supported significant gaps in going from an estimate of how international activities. These elements are described much the climate may change to the effects these in detail in the following sections. However, it should changes may have on ecosystem services, water be noted that these elements represent a preliminary resources, natural resource utilization, human conceptualization of the future USGCRP; the strategic health, and societal well-being. In response to recent planning process will define the program’s new recommendations provided by the NRC and others, direction. The culmination of this process will be a the USGCRP currently is reviewing the organization new strategic plan for the USGCRP for 2013 – 2023, as of the program to determine how best to respond required under the GCRA. to the changing needs of society, such as providing information in order to reduce vulnerabilities The individual execution of the new strategic and improve resilience to climate variability and program elements, and success in meeting the change. For example, a recent National Research USGCRP mission, will depend strongly on Council report recommends restructuring the communication and collaboration among the USGCRP around “…the end-to-end climate change proposed strategic elements. Indeed, the “end-to-end problem, from understanding causes and processes modeling” program element will strongly depend to supporting actions needed to cope with the on interactions with the “integrated observations” impending societal problems of climate change.”8 program element for data input into models, This means supporting a balanced portfolio of data assimilation, model audits, and for end-to- fundamental and application-oriented research end modeling input into the design of integrated activities from expanded modeling efforts to studies observation networks. In turn, both elements of coupled human-natural systems and institutional will require frequent communications with the resilience. “fundamental research” and “adaptation research” program elements, and will feed into and draw from In addition, it would mean boosting adaptation the “National Climate Assessment” program. This research; bolstering capacity to monitor change will also require coordination with sector-specific and its impacts (including not only enhancing our programs, such as those serving the water resources monitoring networks on land and for the oceans but communities, the health communities, etc. These also strengthening our system of Earth-observation interactive needs, which apply to all proposed satellites); producing the sorts of integrated strategic USGCRP elements, will be met through a assessment of the pace, patterns, and regional impacts structured communication process. of climate change that will be needed by decision makers as input into their deliberations on the metrics A. Integrated Observations and goals to be embraced for both mitigation and adaptation; and making climate data and information Long-term, high-quality observations are essential accessible to those who need it. for defining the current state of the Earth’s system, discovering the magnitude and sources of past The USGCRP has taken the initial steps to review trends, and providing the scientific basis for future historical program elements and priorities, as well predictions of its variability. Observational capability should support determination of trends in means 8 National Research Council, 2009. Restructuring Federal and changes in distributions of extremes, and cover Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change. spatial scales from global to local. The broader National Academy Press, Washington DC.

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U.S. governmental context for Earth observations, and Beyond), and several new satellite programs to including those for climate, has been documented by provide follow-up measurements not accessible in the OSTP in its September 2010 report, Achieving and the near term by operational programs. A multi- Sustaining Earth Observations: A Preliminary Plan Based mission data acquisition strategy for space-based on a Strategic Assessment by the U.S. Group on Earth carbon measurements (especially atmospheric

Observations. carbon dioxide (CO2)) was also initiated that, when combined with already implemented surface-based The observational system required is an integrated and airborne observations, will significantly improve mix of satellite and non-satellite systems. These our ability to document the distributions, sources,

systems complement each other in a variety of and sinks of atmospheric CO2. ways—satellites provide the global coverage frequently inaccessible to surface-based The collection of all these data and their importance measurements, while in situ measurements can to global change research makes the long-term achieve greater spatial and/or temporal resolution, as stewardship of data an essential part of the well as measure parameters inaccessible to satellites observational program. Not only is the volume of and provide information on earlier periods in Earth these data sets ever increasing, but they also come system history. The USGCRP agencies are leading from a multiplicity of sources. All of these data contributors to the national and global observing sets must be archived and disseminated in ways to system. Many of the U.S. observations important facilitate more conveniently and comprehensively for documenting climate change are produced by their long-term use by the full range of user operational systems not reflected in the USGCRP communities, especially by those involved in truly Budget Crosscut (see last section of this report). multidisciplinary scientific work and an increasing The determination of long-term trends and the variety of adaptation and assessment uses. requirement for measurement consistency place enormous burdens on the measurement systems in B. Fundamental Research terms of calibration and validation, as well as the need for transparency in algorithm and instrument Fundamental research directed at understanding knowledge. In implementing its measurement climate change provides the foundation for all programs, the United States follows wherever aspects of the USGCRP. This research has made possible the Monitoring Principles established by enormous inroads in understanding climate change the Global Climate Observing System (especially as and its causes, and is beginning to develop a strong documented in the 2010 Update of the Implementation understanding of current and potential impacts that will affect human and natural systems today and Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in in coming decades. Scientific evidence has shown Support of the United Nations Framework Convention on that climate change is occurring, can be attributed Climate Change (UNFCCC)). to human activities, and poses significant risks for both human and natural systems. In addition to In FY 2010, a number of important steps were taken temperature increases, this evidence shows a broad by the Administration to improve the observing spectrum of other climate changes, such as increases system. A major change in plans for the operational in the frequency of intense rainfall, decreases in meteorological satellites was restructuring the snow cover and sea ice, more frequent and intense previous National Polar Orbiting Operational heat waves, rising sea levels, and widespread ocean Environmental Satellite System into the Joint acidification. Individually and collectively, these Polar Satellite System and its DOD counterpart changes pose risks for a wide range of human for the morning orbit; in addition, sea surface and environmental systems, including freshwater altimetry observations are being successfully resources, the coastal environment, ecosystems, moved from research to operations. A significant agriculture, fisheries, human health, and national addition to USGCRP agency budgets will allow for security, among others. acceleration of previously planned observations (especially those recommended by the NRC in its As society responds to the risks and opportunities 2007 Decadal Survey Earth Science and Applications brought on by climate change, decisionmakers will from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade require scientific information to help inform their

10 11 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

actions. The scientific community must continue to takes into account the interconnectedness of the Earth conduct research that will improve understanding of system and the complex nature of the social, political, the causes and consequences of climate change, and and economic environment in which adaptation improve our understanding of the options available decisions must be made would be central to this to limit the magnitude of climate change, adapt to effort. impacts, and capitalize on the opportunities that may arise. In addition, the scientific community should To begin to address climate change adaptation strive to be as comprehensive, integrated, and flexible across the Federal government, in parallel and in as possible to meet the evolving scientific needs of coordination with the USGCRP, the White House society. Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), the OSTP, and NOAA convened the Interagency Climate A particular emphasis of our fundamental research Change Adaptation Task Force. On 5 October 2009, is the study of Earth system processes, including President Obama signed the Executive Order on both those that are relevant to a traditional Earth Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and system component (atmosphere, ocean, biosphere, Economic Performance, which, among other things, cryosphere, land surface, etc.), and those that called on this Task Force to begin developing Federal couple them together. Through comprehensive recommendations for adapting to climate change observations, discoveries are made, hypotheses are impacts both domestically and internationally. tested, and quantitative models are developed that The Task Force reported back to the President on 5 can mathematically describe the processes and their October 2010 with recommendations regarding the relationship to the broader Earth environment. These development of a U.S. strategy for adaptation to models also become critical components of the Earth climate change.6 The report offers recommendations system models described below. for how Federal policies and programs can better prepare the United States to respond to the impacts To assist the government and society as a whole of climate change. It urges Federal agencies to make with understanding, mitigating, and adapting to adaptation a standard part of agency planning climate change, U.S. government agencies deploy a and to make scientific information about climate wide range of powerful resources for research and change impacts accessible to public and private development. Each agency has different sets of key decisionmakers. It also recommends that the Federal specialists and capabilities, different networks and Government strengthen existing efforts to help relationships with the external research community, developing countries reduce their vulnerability and separate program and budget authorities. to climate change and build strong partnerships to support state, local, and tribal adaptation. As a single interagency program, the USGCRP brings The USGCRP will continue to support efforts together the essential capacities for research that related to the Task Force and the implementation are distributed across U.S. government agencies. of recommendations contained in the report. In Success in translating and delivering the scientific particular, the Science Working Group of the Task information necessary for decisionmaking relies on Force, which focused on addressing the challenge of the coordination of programmatic and budgetary translating science for decisionmakers, will continue decisions of the 13 agencies that make up the its work under the USGCRP. USGCRP. D. End-to-end Modeling C. Adaptation Research In order to ensure that the results of the USGCRP There currently exists limited knowledge about the are of relevance to national interests, a key focus of ability of communities, regions, and sectors to adapt the program is the development of an end-to-end to a changing climate. To address this shortfall, perspective in providing information of sufficient research on climate change impacts and adaptation breadth to decisionmakers. Thus, strengthening the must include complex human dimensions, such as end-to-end nature of the modeling component is a economics, management, governance, behavior, and priority. equity. Interdisciplinary research on adaptation that

12 13 OUR CHANGING PLANET

Climate models encapsulate scientists’ best Finally, a new generation of Integrated Assessment understanding of climate and related Earth system Models (IAMs) is required that combines both the processes and are important tools for understanding drivers and consequences of climate change within past, present, and future climate change. Most common modeling frameworks. At the center of modern climate models also include representations IAMs are representations of present and projected of the oceans, atmosphere, cryosphere, and land future human activities (greenhouse gas emissions, surface, and their interactions. Some Earth system land or water use changes, etc.) and their potential models also simulate a range of biogeophysical influence on the climate system. IAMs address the processes that involve terrestrial and marine two-way coupling between changes in the natural ecosystems and human activities. climate system and human activities, including those undertaken to mitigate climate change, to adapt to Climate and Earth system models use computer- climate change, or as consequences of changes in based numerical techniques to solve mathematical climate or other aspects of the Earth system. equations, yielding a projected evolution of the climate system. Rather than trying to predict the These three focus areas (Earth System Modeling; exact future state of the atmosphere (i.e., weather), Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability modeling; climate models predict changes in the frequency and Integrated Assessment Modeling) need to be and characteristics of weather phenomena (e.g., more tightly integrated through cooperation among hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, etc.) and average communities and better coupling and interoperability seasonal weather patterns. across modeling frameworks. With better integration, the current disciplinary and agency boundaries will In order to take on the challenge of projecting blur, resulting in an adaptive, agile U.S. modeling impacts and vulnerability caused by climate change, infrastructure. The result will be an analysis and we must strengthen our ability to predict climate assessment capability that can quickly respond to the at regional and local scales and at the decadal time challenging questions the nation faces, at multiple scale. This information serves as the starting point for geographic and time scales. policymaking, planning and decision support models, as well as impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability E. Assessment studies of energy, the environment, and economic security. The results can also inform significant U.S. Assessment has long been a mainstay of the global infrastructure decisions and investments. change community, and USGCRP research has been at the heart of U.S. contributions to assessing climate Understanding the consequences of climate change, change and its impacts. Investigators funded through with particular attention to options for mitigation USGCRP programs consistently play leadership roles and adaptation at regional and local scales, requires in international assessments such as those of the that next-generation models dramatically improve Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) their depiction of local precipitation patterns, and the World Meteorological Organization/United extreme events in temperature, and wind; reduce Nations Environment Programme. Data and model uncertainties regarding key elements affecting climate results from USGCRP-funded research are central to such as aerosols and carbon fluxes; and capitalize these assessments. When other one-time assessments on leadership-class computers and related cyber- take place, USGCRP models, data, and researchers are infrastructure. important components. The USGCRP also historically provides the funding for one of the Technical Support A substantial expansion of impact, adaptation, and Units that enables preparation of the IPCC reports— vulnerability science and models is required to for the Fourth Assessment Report (2007) it was for deliver a robust set of discrete component models Working Group I on the physical basis of climate in areas such as agriculture, coastal systems, energy, change, and for the Fifth Assessment Report it is transportation, health, forestry, water resources, for Working Group II on impacts, adaptation, and fisheries, ecosystem services, and more. vulnerability.

12 13 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

In addition to its contributions to international to support the initial writing and provide informed assessments, the USGCRP has a statutory reaction to the Assessment. requirement under the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to produce a quadrennial assessment F. Support for Climate Services of climate change and its impacts on the United States. The Act further requires an assessment of the Coordinated climate information and services are impacts of global change on a variety of sectors and needed to assist decisionmaking across public and projections of future conditions for 25 to 100 years. private sectors. Local planners will want information Strategic planning and implementation for the current on likely changes in precipitation amount and assessment is underway and the next complete report flooding; farmers and farm cooperatives will want is expected in June 2013. information on changes in season length and temperature for both their own farms and those The vision for this National Climate Assessment of their local and distant competitors; coastal zone incorporates recommendations from the NRC managers will want information on likely changes in and others and will differ in multiple ways from sea level, storms, and estuarine temperatures; water previous U.S. climate assessment efforts. It will be resource managers and energy/electricity producers more focused on evaluating the Nation’s progress will want information on likely changes in snowpack in adaptation and mitigation; building a long-term, and runoff and the chance of floods and drought; consistent process for evaluation of climate-related community health planners will want information risks and opportunities; providing information that on changes in location of freezing conditions and supports decisions within regions and sectors of the the frequency of extreme precipitation and heat United States; and evaluating the current state of waves; industry will want information on changes scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and in extremes that might affect their businesses and trends. shipping; those preparing environmental impact statements will need information on how changes A primary goal is to establish an enduring assessment in a given location affect environmental outcomes; capacity within the federal government that provides those doing economic analyses will want information essential links with and is accessible to outside across the region, and much more. experts and stakeholders for use in decisionmaking. In addition to producing a report by June 2013, this While much work has been done to develop new National Climate Assessment will be an ongoing implementation strategies and program structures, process that involves stakeholders and scientists and to evaluate the need for improved climate across the country. Assessment activities will result services, especially in individual agencies, the in the capacity to perform ongoing assessments of Administration believes that interagency coordination vulnerability to climate stressors, to observe and is essential for delivering comprehensive Federal project impacts of climate change within regions climate services. Therefore, OSTP has established, and sectors, to develop consistent indicators of under the National Science and Technology Council, progress in adaptation and mitigation, and will the Roundtable on Climate Information and Services, allow for production of a set of reports and web- a high-level group that will develop a common based products that are useful for decisionmaking at definition of climate services, examine national multiple levels. assets, and provide a roadmap of how the federal government can provide services in a coordinated Substantial recent progress has been made toward way. The USGCRP will work with the Roundtable to preparing the next Assessment and in establishing provide information, data, and expertise to support this assessment capacity. A preliminary outline these efforts. and work plan for the next Assessment has been developed and a series of workshops are being held in 2010 and will be held in early 2011 to provide guidance on the methodologies that will be used by the Assessment effort. Beginning in January 2011, regional and sectoral networks will be mobilized

14 15 OUR CHANGING PLANET G. Communications, Outreach, H. Scientific-Societal Areas of and Education Interest

Demand for scientific information to support Guidance received from the NRC and elsewhere has decisions that will help understand, mitigate, and suggested that the USGCRP should be restructured adapt to climate change will continue to grow as around crosscutting, integrated, societally relevant society responds to the challenges and opportunities themes to ensure that the research it supports is brought on by climate change. In order to meet this maximally useful to the nation. The NRC report, demand, a comprehensive and coordinated effort is Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the needed to assist in translating and providing technical Challenges of Climate Change, called these “scientific- information in forms that are timely, credible, and societal issues” while the America’s Climate Choices supportive of decisionmaking at various scales. report, Advancing the Science of Climate Change, referred to “areas of interest to decisionmakers.” By A wide variety of approaches and activities are structuring the program around these elements, the currently being undertaken across the Federal research agenda will better reflect the overarching government to communicate scientific knowledge USGCRP mission “to build a knowledge base that and socioeconomic information related to climate informs human responses to climate and global change. A number of Federal agencies provide state change.” Examples of scientific-societal themes from and local governments, industry, nongovernmental the NRC reports include sea level rise and the coastal organizations (NGOs), the general public, and other environment; freshwater resources; ecosystems, stakeholders with information about national and ecosystem services, and biodiversity; agriculture global climate change research and risk assessment and fisheries; cities and the built environment; studies, U.S. mitigation activities, and policy transportation systems; energy systems; national and development. They work both independently and in human security; extreme weather and disasters; and partnership toward the common goal of increasing human health. awareness and understanding. The strategic planning process will guide the The USGCRP is responsible for communicating USGCRP on how to address societally relevant credible scientific information related to climate themes, what areas most reflect the priorities of the change and its impacts to a variety of stakeholders, program, and how to best integrate them into the both nationally and globally. The USGCRP is research agenda. A pilot effort addressing human currently developing an integrated communication, health, described below, is already underway. outreach, and engagement strategy to enhance coordination of Federal agency efforts and to support Interagency Crosscutting Group on Climate Change ongoing activities, such as the National Climate and Human Health Pilot. In response to the Assessment. This coordinated effort will continue to recommendations to restructure the USGCRP around build public understanding of climate change and crosscutting scientific-societal themes, the USGCRP serve as a foundation for improved adaptation and piloted a new interagency working group on climate mitigation. change and human health. Established in December 2009, the Interagency Crosscutting Group on Climate The USGCRP also has the opportunity to assist Change and Human Health (CCHHG) addresses an formal education systems that educate the scientists, important societally relevant area of research and engineers, and citizens of tomorrow to understand also serves to inform the program’s overall strategic and be able to make decisions appropriate to climate planning process. The CCHHG strives to increase conditions in the future. By providing content and the overall effectiveness and productivity of Federal supporting research and training, USGCRP agencies research and development efforts in the area of can partner with professionals in education and the climate change and health. Membership includes education industry to improve the training of teachers participants from various divisions and offices of and students and to provide more usable material traditional USGCRP agencies, as well as agencies not that can enhance student interest and learning. traditionally associated with the USGCRP, such as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

14 15 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

The CCHHG is charged by the USGCRP with such as the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) and planning, coordinating, implementing, evaluating, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). and reporting on Federal research and related activities that expand the scientific and technical The international global change research programs knowledge base regarding the human health continue to provide sound frameworks for core impacts of global environmental change, focusing research projects, capacity-building programs, and specifically on climate variability and change. The regional networks. These programs include the CCHHG seeks to integrate relevant science and World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the technology programs and capabilities through International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme interagency, interdisciplinary, and intergovernmental (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions collaborations that span a continuum from basic Programme (IHDP), and DIVERSITAS (an research to decisionmaking to application, with the international biodiversity science program) that ultimate goal of building more resilient communities. together constitute the Earth System Science This group also serves as a pilot to inform future Partnership (ESSP). These programs also provide a USGCRP efforts. framework for regional and sectoral programs such as the Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study Although membership is limited to representatives (MAIRS) and the Northern Eurasia Environmental of Federal agencies, the CCHHG intends to fully Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), as well as engage relevant stakeholders as appropriate, to the Global Observations of Forest Cover/Global inform prioritization of research needs, increase Observations of Land Dynamics (GOFC/GOLD). understanding of potential health impacts in various The ESSP-sponsored global change SysTem for sectors, and increase coordination with on-the- Analysis, Research, and Training (START) provides ground public health applications at the regional, an international framework for capacity building. state, local, and tribal levels through mechanisms such as workshops and listening sessions. The following provides additional detail on recent activities involving international programs: I. USGCRP-Supported International Activities Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The IPCC is an international Since climate change is a global phenomenon, U.S. scientific governmental body established by the activities related to climate change are necessarily World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the linked to the global community. The USGCRP and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) the large community of U.S. scientists supported by to assess scientific, technical, and socioeconomic or associated with it have a global reach. Activities information concerning climate change, its potential in which the United States is involved include effects, and options for adaptation and mitigation. supporting global environmental change research The IPCC periodically assesses original research on programs, including those that operate under the climate and related environmental change. A main aegis of the International Council for Science (ICSU); activity of the IPCC is publishing special reports and supporting international assessments, particularly periodic assessment reports on topics relevant to the those of the IPCC; supporting regional global change implementation of the UNFCCC, an international research networks; playing an active role in informal treaty that acknowledges the possibility of harmful organizations that are involved with the advancement climate change and encourages the reduction of of global environmental change research; and greenhouse gas emissions by member states. The participating in and leading international efforts Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC will be to provide coordination and cooperation in Earth the next in a series of such assessment reports. The observations. This support includes work with the IPCC is open only to member states of the WMO and DOS at a variety of levels, but particularly with UNEP, and it bases its assessments on peer-reviewed, respect to the IPCC and the UNFCCC as well as published scientific literature. bilateral arrangements in climate change science and technology. This also includes contributions to and The IPCC has completed the selection of contributors participation in international observational efforts to AR5. The USGCRP, in close coordination with

16 17 OUR CHANGING PLANET

DOS’ Office of Global Change and OSTP, coordinated concerning aircraft/engine emissions (including the nominations process for the United States. In oxides of nitrogen, carbon dioxide, and particulate total, over 170 experts from the United States were matter emissions).” For example, FAA is conducting

chosen to contribute to AR5 across its three Working a study to identify and assess metrics for CO2 Groups (WGI focuses on the physical science basis; emissions from aircraft that may potentially be used WGII assesses the impacts, adaptation strategies, and to set standards for the certification of new aircraft vulnerability related to climate change; and WGIII (including the benchmarking of existing aircraft) covers mitigation response strategies in an integrated and to monitor the operational performance of the risk and uncertainty framework). The research commercial aircraft fleet. The results of the study activities of many of these experts are supported by will be provided within the work program of ICAO’s US agencies as part of their USGCRP investment. Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection for

considering development of the aircraft CO2 standard United Nations Framework Convention on Climate by the end of 2012. Change. The UNFCCC is an international environmental treaty produced at the United Nations GEO-VI Plenary. Over 300 representatives of 45 Conference on Environment and Development, governments and 34 international organizations with the objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas participated in the Sixth Plenary Session of the Group concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that on Earth Observations (GEO-VI), hosted by the would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference United States in Washington, DC on 17-18 November with the climate system. The treaty provides 2009. A summary report of national activities was for updates (called “protocols”) that would set provided, including announcements that the United negotiated emission limits. The principal update States will reposition the GOES-12 satellite to provide is the Kyoto Protocol, concluded in 1997, which coverage of South America (replacing the GOES-10 has become much better known than the UNFCCC satellite) and, as part of a new initiative, monitor the itself. The 15th Conference of the Parties (COP- polar ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica with 15) was held 7-18 December, 2009 in Copenhagen, airborne remote sensing and in situ monitoring. Denmark. USGCRP participating agencies accompanied the U.S. delegation and hosted side The delegates discussed a number of priority areas events at the conference. The DOS’ Bureau of Oceans, for Earth observations in 2010, including forest Environment, and Science (OES), in coordination with monitoring for carbon, global carbon monitoring the Office of the Special Envoy for Climate Change and analysis, global biodiversity observations (SECC) and the USGCRP, organized the U.S. Center, through the emerging GEO Biodiversity Observation an unprecedented outreach initiative that provided Network (GEOBON), and an initiative to establish a a platform for 35,000 conference attendees to learn “2010 Baseline” for key Earth observation data sets, about U.S. climate actions. The topics highlighted including the need for a land imaging data set. The the variety of U.S. climate programs and scientific delegates also took a number of critical actions to research and underscored the strong actions the advance the global sharing and exchange of Earth United States is taking to combat climate change. observations data through the implementation of Global Earth Observation System of Systems The USGCRP and its participating agencies have been (GEOSS), including facilitating the integration engaged in preparations for COP-16, which was held of global Earth observations data into a common from 29 November to 10 December 2010, in Cancun, information architecture of portals, clearinghouses, Mexico. and registries through the GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI) and the creation of a GCI Team. International Civil Aviation Organization’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), as an arm of DOT, participates in the work program of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection “to develop and assess standards and recommended practices

16 17 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

18 PB The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011 OUR CHANGING PLANET IV USGCRP RECENT PROGRESS AND FY 2011 PLANS

he strategic program elements in the previous In addition, they will form an important basis for Tsection represent a preliminary concept of progress under a new strategic framework that some of the pieces that will comprise the future incorporates the elements listed in the previous USGCRP and some of the progress made has already section. For example, the section on “Assessing the been described. The remainder of this report was Nation’s vulnerability” discusses activities that will developed by compiling information based on the support the new National Climate Assessment as well following six focus areas: as efforts toward adaptation. Activities listed under • Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and “Providing climate information and decision support present climate tools” may help the program provide support for • Improving our understanding of natural and climate services. Progress under “Improving our human forces of climate change knowledge” and “Improving our understanding” • Improving our capability to model and will underpin any future developments in integrated predict future conditions and impacts observations and fundamental research. While the • Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to program is undergoing a strategic realignment, it has current and anticipated impacts of climate a lot of competencies, progress, and plans to build on. change • Providing climate information and decision Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and support tools present climate • Climate change communication and education Recent Progress and Activity These focus areas represent some of the traditional goals of the USGCRP, and work done in these Climate Reanalysis. Reanalyses serve as vitally areas will be critical to the future of the program. important climate records for both research and

PB 19 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

applications. Atmospheric reanalyses are obtained improving the fidelity of climate change projections by synthesizing both in situ and remotely sensed at regional scales. A current multiagency effort, observations together within a model to provide a the North American Regional Climate Change complete, temporally continuous, objective record Assessment Program (NARCCAP) has the following of how the atmosphere has evolved over extended goals: 1) to provide multiple high-resolution (50 km) periods of time. Reanalyses typically extend over climate change scenarios over North America for use several decades or longer, and cover the entire globe by the climate impacts and adaptation communities, from Earth’s surface to well above the stratosphere. and 2) to explore the uncertainties in regional model The USGCRP has placed a high priority on improving and global model regional projections of future the quality and spatial resolution of reanalyses, with climate over North America.9 By the end of FY emphasis on decision- and application-relevant 2010, all simulations will be completed and model variables, extending the length of reanalysis records, output made available to researchers and users. The and broadening future reanalyses to include other main probabilistic models of uncertainty developed components of the Earth system (ocean, cryosphere, by NARCCAP will also be completed and made and land-surface hydrology). Remarkable progress available. has been made in all three of these areas over the past few years through research supported under the Terrestrial Carbon. Accurately characterizing and USGCRP. A NASA-led reanalysis project called the monitoring the carbon cycle by understanding Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and the carbon stocks and fluxes is a requirement of Applications (MERRA) has constructed a high-quality scientists, managers, and policymakers so that they reanalysis at six-hour intervals extending from 1979 can understand how to sustain and enhance carbon to the present.8 The MERRA reanalysis particularly storage capacity, and important to researchers in emphasizes the use of satellite observations and order that carbon cycle forcing and feedbacks can improving the quality of water cycle observations. be represented in Earth system models to more A second effort, supported by NOAA and DOE, accurately project the results of future climate change. demonstrated the feasibility of extending atmospheric Numerous advances have been made in better reanalysis records back in time using only surface characterizing carbon pools and fluxes from different observations. While prior reanalysis efforts only data platforms, and efforts are underway to improve extended back to 1948, coinciding with the modern coordination of these data: (1) NASA, NOAA, and radiosonde era, the 20th-century reanalysis project the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), through their now provides six-hourly atmospheric maps from participation in the Committee on Earth Observing January 1891 to the present. This data set should Satellites (CEOS) working groups, and particularly enable a vast range of new research, such as on the the Land Surface Imaging Constellation, have been causes of the 1930s Dust Bowl drought and other supporting the satellite and field measurement outstanding weather and climate events of the needs for the GEO Forest Carbon Tracking task; late 19th and early 20th centuries. In a third major (2) in an effort lead by USDA’s Forest Service, in effort, NOAA completed the first-ever reanalysis conjunction with the North American Carbon with a coupled climate model, called the Coupled Program, a comprehensive handbook has brought Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) together the field methods and measurements used project. This reanalysis, which extends back to 1979, in forest carbon inventory and monitoring; and (3) includes ocean, land surface, and sea ice components the multiagency Ameriflux network, led by DOE, in addition to the atmosphere. This is a major step continues to provide important information from toward what has been a long-term USGCRP priority flux towers that advances the understanding of to develop an ongoing analysis of how the full Earth processes regulating carbon assimilation, respiration, system is changing over time, which USGCRP has and storage, and linkages between carbon, water, termed Integrated Earth System Analysis. energy, and nitrogen through measurements and modeling. In all these efforts, better methods of data Fidelity of Regional Climate Simulations. As the need coordination among data collection modalities are for higher resolution climate information for sound being pursued. decisionmaking increases, USGCRP agencies are

8. See gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/merra/ 9. See www.narccap.ucar.edu/about/index.html

20 21 OUR CHANGING PLANET

Building long-term ecological research networks. Marine Boundary Layer (CAP-MBL) field campaign.10 Assessing long-term changes in ecological systems The goal of the campaign is to study processes due to environmental change, disturbance, and controlling the radiative properties and microphysics human impacts is essential for adaptation strategies, of marine boundary layer clouds, a high-priority conservation, and resource management. As a science question. collaborative effort with universities, NGOs, and government agencies to investigate ecological In a five-month field campaign centered at the processes over long temporal and broad spatial DOE’s ARM Southern Great Plains site in Oklahoma, scales, NSF established the Long Term Ecological improved analysis techniques were applied to a Research (LTER) Network in 1980. The Network variety of airborne measurements in a study to promotes synthesis and comparative research determine how aerosols affect cloud formation across 26 ecosystems and other related national and and the energy balance from the sun. Significantly international research programs. Many of the LTER improved techniques were used in the analysis sites are co-located with existing agency research of Raman lidar data to enhance the accuracy of sites, for example, USDA Forest Service Experimental interpretation of aerosol observations, which will Forest and Range locations and USGS watershed reduce scientific uncertainties in computer models research sites. A new program, Urban Long-Term used to simulate climate change. Research Areas exploratory research (ULTRA-Ex), managed jointly by NSF and the USDA Forest Service, Global Land Survey 2010. The Global Land Survey made its first awards in 2009. The goal of ULTRA- (GLS) 2010 allows land cover and ecological changes Ex is to stimulate and support interdisciplinary to be monitored on a five-year observation cycle, as teams of investigators and practitioners working recommended by the Global Terrestrial Observing together to contribute to the broader base of scientific System and its panel on the Global Observation of knowledge regarding human-ecosystem interactions Forest and Land Cover Dynamics. During 2009, USGS in urban settings. The LTER and USDA Forest Service and international partners acquired some 32,000 community have highlighted the need for greater images from eight specially operated Landsat-5 integration of the social and ecological sciences across receiving stations in order to maximize the pool the LTER network, as evidenced in the LTER decadal of available observations. NASA and USGS are plan and the strategic research initiative, Integrative collaborating to support national and international Science for Society and the Environment. ULTRA-Ex efforts to map land cover change. This effort will project objectives are to advance basic theoretical assemble a substantially cloud-free, leaf-on (i.e., knowledge regarding both human and ecological growing season) collection of Landsat and EO-1 dimensions of ecosystems and to generate results Advanced Land Imager imagery for the world’s land with a range of scientific, educational, and practical areas centered on the period 2009 to 2010. GLS 2010 uses and applications. follows previous projects that assembled similar Landsat data sets for 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2005. Field Experiments to Study Clouds in the Global Climate System. Marine boundary layer clouds are Global Climate Observing System Reference Upper Air particularly important in the global climate system, Network. The GCOS Reference Upper Air Network not only as passive modulators of solar energy, but (GRUAN) is an international reference observing as interactive systems that influence and modulate network, designed specifically to meet climate sea surface temperature and the strength of the research requirements and to be used for validation trade winds on seasonal to interannual timescales. as a baseline for all other purposes.11 While the global Their microphysical properties are important, upper-air observing network has provided useful strongly sensitive to manmade aerosol, and poorly observations for operational weather forecasting understood, especially over remote oceans. From for decades, those measurements lack the accuracy May 2009 through December 2010 the DOE ARM and long-term continuity needed for understanding (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) Mobile climate change. Consequently, the climate research Facility conducted intensive field observations near community faces uncertainty about such key issues as the Portuguese Azorean island of Graciosa in support of the Clouds, Aerosol, and Precipitation in the 10. See www.arm.gov/campaigns/amf2009clapmbl 11. See www.gruan.org

20 21 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

the nature of temperature trends in the troposphere next decade. Early strategy sessions in 2009 with and stratosphere; the climatology, radiative effects, the National Academy of Sciences’ Committee on and hydrological role of water vapor in the upper Human Dimension of Global Change, lead to new troposphere and stratosphere; and the vertical collaborations with social scientists and research profile of changes in atmospheric ozone, aerosols, on socioeconomic issues that will be needed in and other trace constituents. In the past year, a coordinating the science across diverse but equally data management plan was developed by the U.S. important disciplines. Spring 2011 has been targeted partners to address data archiving, a meta-database, for the release of another US. Carbon Cycle Science a data dissemination portal, and organization of data Plan, fully vetted by the communities researching flows. The GRUAN is a partnership between NOAA, the natural and socioeconomic aspects of the carbon DOE, NASA, the National Center for Atmospheric cycle. Research, and Howard University. The National Ecological Observatory Network: A multi Plans for FY 2011 organizational effort to assess ecological change. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Future Plans to Improve Fidelity of Regional Climate will collect data across the United States on the Simulations. Building on NARCCAP and other impacts of climate change, land use change, and regional climate modeling activities, NSF, DOE, invasive species on natural resources and biodiversity. and USDA are investing significant resources NEON is supported by the NSF, with many other to support research beginning in FY 2011 into U.S. agencies and NGOs cooperating. Many of the 20 Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using NEON sites will be co-located with existing agency Earth System Models. Project goals are to improve research sites, for example, USDA Forest Service current modeling capabilities in order to achieve Experimental Forest and Range locations. NEON will comprehensive, reliable global and high-resolution be the first observatory network of its kind designed regional predictions of decadal climate variability to detect and enable forecasting of ecological change and change through advanced understanding of the at continental scales over multiple decades. coupled physical, chemical, biological, and human processes that drive the climate system. This activity Interagency Integration of Existing and Newly Developing utilizes interagency cooperation to focus on one of Watershed Observatories. Planning to strengthen and the most pressing problems facing society: climate further integrate existing and newly developing change, how it is likely to affect the nation, and how watershed observatories from multiple agencies we can proactively plan for its consequences. into a more cohesive national network will be conducted. Observatories from the Forest Service, Charting Future Global Carbon Cycle Research. The Agricultural Research Service, USGS, NOAA global carbon cycle is changing rapidly as a result precipitation monitoring, and NSF-sponsored Critical of human activities that are altering Earth’s climate. Zone Observatories (CZO) and LTER sites are being A decade ago, the 1999 U.S. Carbon Cycle Science examined for further investment and expanded Plan identified research priorities and many of research to address the effects of climate change these remain important today. However, additional and variability on the water cycle at scales required new priorities for carbon cycle research are vitally for local and regional decisionmaking. Internet important for the coming decade, including the access to a rich history of hydrometeorological data effects of human activities on carbon cycling, the from existing long-term observatories and national vulnerability and resilience of ecosystems to changes networks is being facilitated by the development of in carbon cycling and associated changes in climate, a Water Markup Language (WaterML). This effort is and the efficacy and environmental consequences being extended internationally via the joint WMO of carbon management policies, strategies, and and Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Hydrology technologies. Under the auspices of the U.S. Carbon Domain Working Group to develop voluntary Cycle Interagency Working Group of the USGCRP, consensus standards to enhance and further the Carbon Cycle Scientific Steering Group began enable web-based interoperability and exchange developing and charting a strategy for carbon cycle of hydrologic data. NASA, along with interagency science to be conducted by U.S. scientists for the participants, will initiate projects that leverage these

22 23 OUR CHANGING PLANET

observations and networks to improve downscaling include measurements of water vapor at very low techniques to provide more useful information from concentrations (<10 ppm) in the upper troposphere/ both satellites and large-scale models. lower stratosphere. These water measurements will help resolve discrepancies between various Planned Intensive Field Studies with Interagency and measurement techniques. The MACPEX project, International Coordination. DOE’s ARM Climate which will make use of NASA’s WB-57F aircraft Research Facility is planning three major intensive flying from its home base in Houston, Texas, is field studies for 2011. These campaigns address coordinated with a DOE project, Small Particles major scientific uncertainties, have significant in Cirrus (SPartICus). SPartICus measured a international or interagency collaborations, and will number of important cirrus cloud properties over be the first major experiments to incorporate new a relatively long time period. Over a shorter period capabilities acquired under the American Recovery of time, MACPEX will make a number of identical and Reinvestment Act of 2009. The first will be the measurements along with additional observations Ganges Valley (India) Aerosol Experiment to study to more completely characterize the processes the impact of increasing aerosols on the Indian controlling cirrus properties. summer monsoon, specifically their impact on precipitation. Many in-country collaborators will Global Landsat Data from 2009 to 2011. During FY provide valuable complementary measurements. 2011, NASA and USGS will collaborate on scene A second major campaign near the DOE facility at selection, data processing, and release of the data set Manus (Tropical Western Pacific site) will be the to the science and applications communities. The free Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Investigation availability of all Landsat imagery from USGS also Experiment, coordinated with a large international opens other opportunities for the Global Land Survey MJO investigation field campaign called CINDY2011 2010. For example, cloud-cleared (composited) (Cooperative Indian Ocean experiment on data for the humid tropics are being considered in intraseasonal variability in the Year 2011). The addition to the release of individual images. mechanism and cause of the MJO, an equatorial traveling pattern of anomalous rainfall that is GRUAN Commencement of Operations. The GCOS planetary in scale, is not well understood and has the Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) was distinction of not being accurately simulated in any initiated to provide high-quality observations current model. The third field study, entitled Mid- using specialized radiosondes and complementary latitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment, remote-sensing profiling instrumentation to be used will be an interagency campaign supported by ARM for validation as a climate observations baseline. and the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement FY 2011 plans are to initiate GRUAN operations at Project. This experiment, to be conducted at the DOE DOE’s ARM Climate Research Facility in Lamont, Southern Great Plains site, will study cloud and Oklahoma. In line with the recently developed precipitation transitions and environmental quantities GRUAN data management plan, data archiving will that are important for convective parameterization begin. Also in FY 2011, development will begin on a in large-scale models and cloud-resolving model true reference radiosonde for climate quality water simulations. vapor detection in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Collaboration will be broadened to take Mid-Latitude Airborne Cirrus Properties Experiment. advantage of synergies between the Network for the The Mid-Latitude Airborne Cirrus Properties Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change and Experiment (MACPEX) will provide reliable GRUAN. measurements of cirrus cloud properties, especially ice particle size and shape, in the mid-latitudes of Carbon Cycle Science Research. Federal agencies the northern hemisphere. These new measurements responsible for carbon cycle research have planned are important because cirrus cloud properties and are coordinating a multidisciplinary research have a significant impact on Earth’s energy budget strategy through various working groups to and because previous in situ measurements were integrate the broad range of needed infrastructure, compromised by ice particle shattering on aircraft resources, expertise, and stakeholder input essential surfaces and sensor inlets. In addition, MACPEX will to understanding the components of the carbon

22 23 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

cycle. NOAA continues its development of the sparsely measured at sea, limited mostly to summer Carbon Observing and Analysis System (COAS), observations in shipping lanes until the recent global itself a multiagency effort with DOI, DOE, NSF, and deployment of Argo floats. Within a few months, NASA, as an observational and analysis network that Aquarius will collect as many SSS measurements as

measures atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse are in the entire 125-year historical record from ships gases (GHGs) to provide the data necessary for and buoys. Aquarius will be able to resolve global SSS supporting reanalysis efforts and predicting changes at monthly, seasonal, and yearly timescales. future climate change and ocean acidification. This The research-related goals of Aquarius include better network will further serve as the backbone of an understanding in three areas. For the water cycle, in integrated multiagency system for understanding which 86% of global evaporation and 78% of global the influence of the North American continent on precipitation occur over the ocean, SSS is the key Earth’s atmosphere and verifying future mitigation variable for understanding how freshwater input and efforts. NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) output affects ocean dynamics. For ocean circulation, is developing a pre-Phase-A plan to conduct one or in which temperature and salinity determine more pilot studies as part of a comprehensive system seawater density and buoyancy, salinity governs the to provide information about the distribution of extent of ocean stratification, mixing, and water mass carbon in the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere at a formation. For climate, as computer models evolve, range of spatial scales, and to provide information Aquarius will provide the essential SSS data needed about carbon storage in biomass. Additionally, NOAA to link two major components of the climate system: will install new tall towers in the COAS network the water cycle and ocean circulation. The Aquarius/ and increase the frequency of sampling flights to SAC-D science objectives address ocean circulation, improve the CarbonTracker modeling tool that the global hydrological cycle, climate variability, land assimilates carbon modeling modules from other processes, land use, soil moisture, natural hazards, Federal agencies to produce its suite of products. health applications, cryosphere, and others. The CarbonTracker results, in conjunction with direct satellite observatory will provide measurements of aircraft profiles, are used to compare, verify, and ocean salinity (the primary measurement goal of the

validate CO2 retrievals by NASA satellites to promote mission) plus ocean winds, rain, sea ice, sea- and understanding of the carbon cycle across all spatial land-surface temperatures, soil moisture, high- scales. The AmeriFlux network, supported by DOE temperature events (fires and volcanic activity), in collaboration with other agencies, continues to nighttime light sources, atmospheric temperature/ provide ecosystem-level understanding of the role humidity soundings, and the space environment, and of terrestrial biomes in the global carbon cycle. will also provide autonomous data relay from remote DOE’s Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center ground stations. The launch of the Aquarius/SAC-D (CDIAC) provides full and open access to data from Mission is scheduled for FY 2011. many of these activities. Understanding the Changing Arctic. The Arctic region is Aquarius/SAC-D Mission. The cycling of water and expected to continue to experience rapid alteration in energy through the atmosphere and oceans is crucial the coming decades, with reduced sea ice, increased to life on Earth, yet the interactions among the water temperatures, and ocean acidification. NASA, cycle, ocean circulation, and climate are poorly working with the Army’s Cold Regions Research understood. Interestingly, global measurements of Laboratory (CRREL), the Coast Guard, and NSF, sea surface salinity (SSS) over time provide a clear began a four-year research program on the impact way to resolve these relationships. By tracking SSS of a varying and changing climate on the ecology we can directly monitor variations in the water and chemistry of the Arctic Ocean. The ICESCAPE cycle: land runoff, sea ice freezing and melting, (Impacts of Climate change on the Eco-Systems and evaporation and precipitation over the oceans. and Chemistry of the Arctic Pacific Environment) Global SSS data will allow us to create unprecedented project12 includes a strong ship-based field program computer models that bridge ocean-atmosphere- and intensive use of satellite assets in 2010 and 2011 land-ice systems, with the goal of predicting future that will help define the effects of forcing factors climate conditions. The Aquarius/SAC-D mission such as changes in the amount of incoming solar is one of original exploration. Salinity has been 12. See www.espo.nasa.gov/icescape/

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radiation, sea ice extent, and acidification. Results climate changes in some paleoclimate studies. The from the measurement program will enable combined decadal-scale variability and predictability of the physical and biogeochemical modeling studies of AMOC and the corresponding climate impacts have the region. A close collaboration with Canadian been explored through a series of studies using and French researchers has been fostered to extend both numerical models and observations. Ongoing and complement the field campaign beyond the work supported by NSF, NASA, NOAA, and U.S. effort, with foreign colleagues participating DOE suggests that AMOC fluctuations may play a aboard the ship and in coordinated workshops. In significant role in Arctic climate and sea ice changes. collaboration with CRREL and regional universities, To better characterize the AMOC, analyses of sea DOE, through a consortium of National Laboratories, surface height and subsurface temperature have been has initiated a large-scale, long-term ecosystem conducted, and these show distinctive structures in experiment to evaluate the effects of changing climate the North Atlantic that appear to be “fingerprints” on Arctic permafrost. of AMOC variability. These structures have led to the development of a statistical prediction model A Study of Environmental ARctic Change (SEARCH). for AMOC fluctuations. Predictions from this model The Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee suggest a weakening of the AMOC over the next (IARPC), an agency partnership involving eight decade, although there is significant uncertainty in agencies and currently led by NSF, sponsors an this prediction. This statistical approach complements academic and government collaborative effort a substantial effort to predict AMOC changes with to plan and implement a broad interdisciplinary state-of-the-art climate models. These decadal-scale study of environmental arctic change called Study predictions rely on coupled data assimilation systems of Environmental ARctic Change (SEARCH). The that translate observations into a form suitable for goal of this effort is to understand the nature, extent, initializing climate predictions. Production of the first linkages, and future development of the system- set of decadal-scale predictions of the climate system, scale changes now being observed in the Arctic. including the AMOC, is now underway. These changes include, for example, increasing average annual surface air temperatures, decreasing Understanding Causes of U.S. Droughts. The USGCRP summer sea ice extent and sea ice mass, changing has supported focused research efforts to advance ocean circulation, northward movement of tree understanding of the causes of U.S. droughts and to lines and vegetation zones, changing hydrological determine to what extent future droughts may be cycle, thawing glacial ice masses and permafrost, predictable. These efforts are providing a scientific and changing socioeconomic dynamics. SEARCH underpinning for products delivered through has launched an Arctic Observing Network for the multiagency National Integrated Drought oceanographic, atmospheric, terrestrial, and Information System (NIDIS). In the past few years, the socioeconomic observations that includes data U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) management, discovery, and dissemination. SEARCH program has coordinated an interagency-supported includes reanalysis, synthesis, modeling, and model drought research program, the Droughts in Coupled intercomparison efforts linked to the Observing Climate Models Project (DRICOMP). DRICOMP Network. A new thrust will focus on human and results have been reported in approximately twenty environmental responses to the changes occurring. journal articles and are summarized in a special issue of the Journal of Climate.13 As part of this work, Improving our understanding of natural climate model responses to sea surface temperature and human forces of climate (SST) changes were examined that consisted of three different oceanic patterns: an El Niño-Southern Recent Progress and Activity Oscillation (ENSO) pattern over the Pacific Ocean, a pattern resembling the Atlantic Multi-decadal Improving Understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The Atlantic Meridional 13. Schubert, S., and Coauthors, 2009: A U.S. CLIVAR Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a major project to assess and compare the responses of global role in transporting heat within the world’s oceans, climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: with past changes in the AMOC linked to abrupt Overview and results. J. Climate, 22, 5251–5272. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3060.1.

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Oscillation (AMO), and a pattern representing global by vegetated ecosystems provides scientific ocean SST trends. The results show that the largest information to support the formulation of policies precipitation response tends to occur when the two governing climate change mitigation, adaptation, oceans have SST changes of opposite signs, with and land management strategies. Section 712 of the cold tropical Pacific conditions and warm Atlantic Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of conditions favoring reduced U.S. precipitation. In 2007 mandates the DOI to develop a methodology all models examined, the U.S. precipitation response and assess the capacity of our nation’s ecosystems to the global SST trend forcing was weak. Changes for ecological carbon sequestration and GHG in soil moisture were found to be another factor flux mitigation. The USGS LandCarbon Project is influencing U.S. droughts, but this factor needs currently developing a methodology that meets further study. This work collectively highlights crucial specific EISA requirements. The project team consults links between Pacific and Atlantic SST variations the scientific community and partner Federal agencies and many U.S. droughts, identifying features that (USDA, EPA, DOE, and NOAA). The result will will need to be correctly modeled to improve future be a report defining ecosystem monitoring goals drought predictions. and plans, as well as data products that will inform policymakers and land managers about the ecological 2005 North American Land Cover Map. The North integrity of the Nation’s land resources. American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) is a collaborative initiative between USGS; Solar Radiative and Aerosol Forcing of Climate. NASA Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía plans to launch the Glory satellite in 2011.15 Glory e Informática (INEGI), Comisión Nacional Para el has two instruments—one to measure total solar Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO), irradiance, which will help to assure continuity of and Comisión Nacional Forestal (CONAFOR); and data on this fundamental climate-forcing parameter the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS) (currently measured by the ACRIMSat and SORCE to monitor land cover and its changes over time. satellite missions, launched in 1999 and 2003, Based on satellite images, NALCMS products are respectively), and another, the Aerosol Polarimetry designed to depict information about land cover Sensor (APS), to measure the radiative properties of and land cover change in a seamless, consistent, and aerosols. APS will measure the global distribution of automated way across North America at regular natural and anthropogenic aerosols (black carbons, intervals. The NALCMS team recently completed sulfates, etc.) with accuracy and coverage sufficient and published a 2005 North American Land Cover for reliable quantification of the aerosol effect on map and database.14 Multiple national agencies climate. It will also delineate the anthropogenic within each country collaboratively developed component of the aerosol effect, and the potential respective land cover products for their national regional trends in natural and anthropogenic areas of stewardship, which were then combined aerosols. An important aspect of the APS is into a seamless continental product. This geo-spatial quantification of the direct impact of aerosols on the database will help the scientific community analyze radiation budget and their natural and anthropogenic continental-scale land cover changes resulting from components; and quantification of the effect of climate change, as well as aid carbon sequestration aerosols on clouds (microphysics and coverage) assessments. and their natural and anthropogenic components. APS will also investigate the feasibility of improved Plans for FY 2011 techniques for the measurement of black carbon and dust absorption to provide more accurate estimates of Ecological Carbon Sequestration Methodology. their contribution to climate forcing. Ecological carbon sequestration refers to the transfer and storage of atmospheric carbon in International Scientific Assessment of the Ozone Layer. vegetation, soils, and aquatic environments to help USGCRP scientists are participating as co-chairs, offset the net atmospheric increase due to carbon coordinating lead authors, lead authors, co-authors, emissions. Understanding the capacities, associated contributors, and reviewers in the 2010/2011 opportunities, and risks of carbon sequestration international state-of-understanding assessment of

14. See www.cec.org/atlas/ 15. See glory.giss.nasa.gov/

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the science related to the ozone layer, prepared for cycles of CO2 and other climate-relevant compounds. the Parties to the United Nations’ Montreal Protocol The comprehensive study of air-sea gas transfer of

on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The CO2, dimethyl sulfide (DMS), the helium isotope 3 assessment was delivered to the Parties in December He, and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) as part of the 2010 and will be published in Spring 2011. The Parties Southern Ocean Gas Exchange Study coordinated use this assessment as an essential source of scientific by the USGCRP’s carbon cycle interagency working information for their decisionmaking process group showed, for the first time, an apparent strong concerning how best to achieve recovery of the ozone effect of solubility of the gas on air-sea gas transfer, layer. suggesting that bubble-mediated exchange is more important than current models indicate.16 The gas Improving our capability to model and exchange results, along with a comprehensive suite predict future conditions and impacts of biogeochemical and optical properties obtained from shipboard, floats, and remote sensing, are Recent Progress and Activity being assembled in a relational database such that all aspects of the process study can be investigated Development of Earth System Models. The development synergistically. of Earth System Models (ESMs) is a major accomplishment of U.S. modeling groups over Interagency Solicitation Addressing Climate Impacts on the past two years. ESMs have extended climate Species and Ecosystems. NASA, USGS, the U.S. Fish models by adding a carbon cycle that includes and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, biogeochemical components to the physical and and the SI released a joint solicitation that will fund chemical components contained in earlier-generation both research and applications activities under the climate models. ESMs are leading toward a more topic of “Climate and Biological Response.” Funded holistic understanding of the behavior of the climate projects will combine airborne and satellite remote- system and its interactions with other Earth system sensing observations with in situ observations and components. They are also expected to contribute to climate and ecological models to understand the advances in the detection, attribution, and prediction impacts of climate variability and change on species of weather and climate changes around the world. distribution and abundance and ecosystem integrity Such progress is vital to assessing potential future and connectivity. impacts of climate change, as well as for evaluating adaptation and mitigation options. U.S. modeling Plans for FY 2011 centers are also conducting extensive simulations that will serve as major contributions to IPCC’s AR5. Accessible, Open Source Models in Integrated Assessment In particular, they are conducting an unprecedented with Accompanying Computational Capabilities. A major set of coordinated climate model experiments challenge for the field of integrated assessment in the designed to address outstanding scientific questions United States is that the code used in highly detailed identified in the last IPCC reports, to improve integrated assessment models has historically not understanding of climate variations and change, been open source, which has limited the ability of the and to aid in evaluating possible consequences of broader research community to aid and accelerate future changes. Another major accomplishment has model development. This topic was raised in the been the development of techniques to initialize June 2009 “Science Challenges” report, mentioned the models from the observed state of the climate in Accomplishments, and has been a recurring system, enabling the possibility of regional climate theme in the community for some time.17 To begin predictions out to a few decades. the shift to open source code, and to enable broader interagency collaboration and integration of work Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean is a primary products, DOE’s Integrated Assessment Research

sink for anthropogenic CO2 and plays a central role Program has provided funding to make the code in the long-term control of the ‘natural’ CO2 content used in the Global Change Assessment Model of the atmosphere. Recent evidence indicates that increasing wind stress in the Southern Ocean is 16. See so-gasex.org/index.html having a profound effect on the biogeochemical 17. See www.sc.doe.gov/ober/IA%20Workshop%20low%20 res%2006-25-09.pdf

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(GCAM) of the Joint Global Change Research Land Use and Land Cover Change and the Carbon Cycle. Institute (JGCRI ; a collaboration between the Pacific In June 2009, the USGCRP interagency working Northwest National Laboratory and the University groups (IWGs) for Land Use and Land Cover of Maryland) fully open source. Additionally, a new Change and the Carbon Cycle, with the support high-performance cluster (supercomputer) with of the National Institute of Food and Agriculture extensive data storage capabilities will come on line (NIFA), USGS, and the University of Michigan, toward the end of CY 2010 owing to funds provided held a workshop to bring together scientists from under the American Reinvestment and Recovery diverse government, academic, public, and private Act. This enhanced computational infrastructure will institutions engaged in land use/land cover change enable stronger collaborations, data sharing, and science and carbon cycle science to share research development of critical modeling components that are results, identify uncertainties, caucus on means to computationally intensive. Working with the JGCRI, reduce those uncertainties, and foster collaboration the goal is to make such capabilities more widely in land use/land cover change and carbon studies available to other researchers and to strengthen across traditional disciplinary lines. Organized by interagency efforts in Integrated Assessment. A the science steering groups for the two IWGs, the workshop is planned for late spring or early summer workshop breakout sessions focused on identifying 2011 that will include members of major modeling research needs in land management and carbon teams, other scientists, and a range of other agencies cycling, data and observational gaps and needs, that might have an interest in this new activity that and opportunities and challenges in integrated supports science infrastructure and the development modeling of land use/land cover change and carbon of improved modeling capabilities. cycling. A workshop report includes findings and recommendations in all of these areas. Major issues Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability addressed included coupled human and natural to current and anticipated impacts of sciences, the needs of carbon markets and bioenergy climate change policies, competing demands for land and natural resources biodiversity, and ecosystem diversity. Users Recent Progress and Activity included national, regional, state, local, and private land managers; Federal, state, and local climate Ocean Scoping Workshops and Reports. Since 2007, planners; the forest industry; conservation groups; under the auspices of the USGCRP Carbon Cycle climate treaty negotiators; and industries converting Interagency Working Group, the Ocean Carbon and to sustainable approaches in a climate-constrained Biogeochemistry (OCB) Program has convened four world. An outcome of the workshop will be a book scientific scoping workshops that have targeted very on Land Use and the Carbon Cycle, currently in specific and timely research topics such as ocean the writing stage, to put together these issues and acidification, coastal carbon fluxes in the Gulf of synthesize findings and research to date in this area. Mexico, global biogeochemical observations using The book will examine the social, political, economic, profiling floats and gliders, and Southern Ocean and ecosystem processes of land-use and land-cover biogeochemistry and ecosystem research. These change and land management and how they drive workshops, which convene small factions of the carbon flux and storage in terrestrial ecosystems. OCB community around highly focused scientific questions, provide a critical venue for scientific Soil Carbon and Climate Change Issues. Resources planning and have yielded frequently cited workshop from the Natural Resources Conservation Service reports and papers that are helping to seed new (NRCS), NIFA, the Agricultural Research Service programs and research opportunities. Two OCB (ARS), DOE, the Carbon Management Center (CMC; scoping workshops were held in 2010, one on the a research center of the Colorado Renewable Energy future of marine biogeochemical time-series research, Collaboratory), the International Plant Nutrition and the other on the application of molecular tools to Institute, 25X25, and Colorado State University were link ocean chemistry with biological activity.18 combined to host a conference, the International Symposium on Soil Organic Matter Dynamics: Land Use, Management and Global Change. This symposium 18. See www.us-ocb.org/ for information on the program, covered a wide range of topics related to the vital workshops, and workshop reports.

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role of soil organic matter in the function and Through Federal sponsorship, Stanford Universities’ sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems and the global Energy Modeling Forum coordinated the activity, carbon cycle. Soil organic matter (SOM) research in with one week devoted to impacts, adaptations, and terrestrial ecosystems from around the world was vulnerabilities and the second to mitigation and the presented. The goal of the symposium was to present implications of technological change. The workshop the latest research on SOM across the globe and to brought many divergent research communities highlight future research directions. General topics together to explore modeling challenges at the included SOM and climate, flooded soil, organic intersections of the various fields. Two agencies soils, high-latitude soils, biofuels, quantification coordinated and five agencies participated in and accounting, vulnerability and long-term carbon planning a major three-day session on urban/regional storage, relationship to net greenhouse gas fluxes, impacts, adaptations, and vulnerabilities where disturbance, and tillage and other management scientists provided perspectives ranging from health practices. A special issue of the journal Plant and Soil to infrastructure interdependencies. will be published with volunteered peer-reviewed papers presented at the conferences. Researchers Workshop on Water Infrastructure Sustainability and from 28 countries and six continents participated. Adaptation to Climate Change. In January 2009, EPA sponsored a workshop on water infrastructure Interagency Workshop on the Plight of Ecosystems sustainability and adaptation to climate change, held in a Changing Climate Emphasizes Thresholds, Land in Washington, DC. More than 130 invited experts Use and Invasive Species. A workshop was held in and stakeholders from the Federal, research, utility, Seattle, WA, in May 2009 on research resulting from engineering, NGO, and academic communities interagency solicitations (EPA, NIFA, DOE) on attended. The workshop included two concurrent ecosystem services, non-linear responses to climate tracks: Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology change, and ecosystem effects of interactions between and Water Resource Management and Adaptive climate change, land use and land cover change, and Management and Engineering: Information invasive species. Highlights included results from and Tools. The focus of the workshop was on both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, and invasive precipitation-related impacts and adaptation (i.e., sea species considered ranged from transgenes and level rise and mitigation efforts were not addressed). pathogens to trees, fish, and wildlife. In particular, An extensive list of suggestions and ideas for moving great progress was reported on models to identify forward on adaptation were developed and captured locations prone to species invasions and to predict in a proceedings volume.19 these areas based on future climate scenarios. Reliable predictions of this sort are crucial for implementing Plans for FY 2011 control or eradication measures for harmful invasive species, and to support adaptive management to Climate Ready Estuaries Vulnerability Assessment. minimize economic and environmental damage. The Estuaries and coastal areas are particularly vulnerable importance of land use history and the implications of to climate variability and change. In order to future land use trends coupled with climate change in protect their ecosystems from projected impacts of determining types of invasive species and ecological sea level rise, increasing temperatures, and other disturbance was also highlighted. The importance effects, coastal managers may need to develop of greater variability versus steady temperature and and implement adaptation measures. The Climate moisture changes was noted for pathogen invasions. Ready Estuaries program works with the National Estuary Program, established by Congress in 1987, International Workshop on Integrated Assessment and and other coastal managers to: 1) assess climate Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation. In June 2009, a change vulnerabilities; 2) develop and implement two-week workshop was held with leading U.S. and adaptation strategies; 3) engage and educate international integrated assessment scientists and stakeholders; and 4) share the lessons learned with modelers, impacts researchers, and Earth system other coastal managers. The Climate Ready Estuaries modelers to explore critical research topics related to climate change mitigation and adaptation and 19. See www.epa.gov/nrmrl/wswrd/wqm/wrap/workshop. the interactions among human and natural systems. html

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Vulnerability Assessments are a partnership with region, as well as apply their individual expertise the Massachusetts Bays Program (MBP) and the in coordinating with their centers’ environmental San Francisco Estuary Project (SFEP). The goal of management team. A combination of workshops, these vulnerability assessments is to provide place- scientific cooperation, and networking approaches based information on the potential implications of will be used to implement this program. climate change for estuarine processes in a form that is directly relevant for adaptation planning in the Providing climate information and estuary.20 decision support tools

Encouraging Multiagency Research Integration in a Recent Progress and Activity Recent Research Call for Integrated Assessment. In order to encourage stronger collaborations across agency Climate Diagnostics Directory. The Climate Diagnostics research programs, a recent multiagency call for (CD) directory21 has been developed jointly by proposals has been jointly issued for climate change NASA (through the CEOS International Directory Integrated Assessment Inter-model Development, Network (IDN)) and NOAA. The IDN staff at Testing, and Diagnostics. Specifically, the Integrated NASA subsequently implemented this into a fully Assessment Research Program included language functional information system. The ultimate goal in a December 2009 call that provides incentives of this directory is to identify climate visualizations for applicants to reach out and draw linkages (diagnostics) that assist in the assessment of with programs such as Decision Making Under climate trends and fluctuations by scientists and Uncertainty for Climate Change (DMUU), LTER, decisionmakers for long-term societal benefit. Because and Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments, the content covers all the Earth Science disciplines, all activities supported by other agencies. Discussed the complete set of the IDN’s Earth Science keywords in the Human Contributions and Response Working were reused. In addition, all the directory entries Group of the USGCRP, this call adopted language were tagged with appropriate keywords from the that will test the viability and effectiveness of this one controlled set of keywords associated with their simple approach for improving integration of federal potential Societal Benefit Areas (SBA). research programs. Searching for visualizations by Earth Science Planned Study of Impacts of Climate Variability and “Topic” currently appears to remain the primary Change on Facilities. NASA’s Earth Science Division method for identifying visualizations of interest. and Environmental Management Division will begin However, interested users may also query by location full-scale implementation of a joint activity begun in (controlled vocabulary), using a Google map search, FY 2010 in which scientists at NASA’s field centers or by using a full-text search. As usage expands will be working as part of a coordinated activity within the policy arenas, it is expected that the SBAs with the facilities planners and environmental may become a more common method for identifying management personnel at the individual field centers visualizations of interest. One of the most attractive to better understand the magnitude and impacts features of the directory is the availability of an of future climate variability and change on NASA’s authoring tool for creators of Climate Diagnostics centers and facilities. Since the field centers have records to clearly document their visualizations. unique capabilities to support NASA’s mission, and When using this authoring tool, contributors are several are in vulnerable regions (especially those guided through the process of entering the metadata along the coasts), the development of this close (descriptive information) associated with the specific partnership should have important impacts on visualization. Requested information includes the future planning as well as demonstrate how such visualization description, the visualization itself, partnerships can be applied more generally. In this and the Visualization URL (Uniform Resource activity, NASA climate model forecasts of future Locator). In addition, providers can characterize the environmental conditions for the NASA field center contributions of Climate Diagnostic entries by either locations will be provided to the investigators, who visualization or analysis type. These characterizations can then focus on aspects of particular interest to their 21. See idn.ceos.org/ and idn.ceos.org/climdiag/Home.do?Por 20. See www.epa.gov/cre/ tal=climatediagnostics&MetadataType=0

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are selected from controlled lists by the providers to Plans for FY 2011 clarify the analyses used to create the specific Climate Climate Diagnostics Directory. For FY 2011 and beyond, Diagnostics and specify this information for the end the plan is to continue to populate this directory user. The CD directory has been demonstrated at and encourage participation worldwide through national and international meetings and has been well contributions that can be made through the metadata received by all audiences. authoring tool, available from the website. The work is being performed through the CEOS Working Western Watersheds and Climate Change: Water and Group on Information Systems and Service (WGISS), Aquatic System Tools Workshop. The Forest Service, but all agencies are encouraged to contribute. A in partnership with other federal agencies and performance measure includes a Maturity Index that universities, addressed western climate change, water, is being used to assess the continued viability of the and aquatic issues through a Western Watersheds site. and Climate Change: Water and Aquatic System Tools workshop. The workshop began a dialogue among National Climate Change and Wildlife Climate Science managers and scientists in the western United Center (NCCWSC). The NCCWSC is an organization States about knowledge and tools that are currently of regional climate science centers at the DOI that was available or needed to address water and climate designed with input from Federal, state, and tribal change issues. There will be follow-up discussions to science and management agencies; nongovernmental address various topics, potentially including ways to organizations; academic institutions; and others adequately address water and climate change issues; having an interest in conserving America’s fish a presentation on legal challenges; and the creation and wildlife resources. Center activities will focus of an information network that would contain on providing habitat and population modeling synthesized and organized climate information as and forecasting information and tools, integrating well as climate data implementation tools. physical climate models with ecological models, assessing vulnerabilities and forecasting changes, and Enabling and Improving Responses to Climate Variability developing standardized approaches. This research and Change by Providing Reliable and Accessible Climate will be accomplished through collaboration among Information and Decision Support Tools to Address Gaps Federal, state, and academic researchers to develop in Our Ability to Adapt to and Mitigate Climate Change. science information and tools in order to better The Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) is one of inform management strategies for responding to eight Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments climate change. Centers sponsored by NOAA with agriculture research, education, and extension activities funded Gulf of Mexico Coastal and Marine Elevation Pilot. through USDA. Faculty from the SECC’s seven NOAA will invest in a joint project with the DOI (i.e., member universities in five states have developed USGS and the Minerals Management Service (MMS)) climate variability and forecast information systems to develop a national integrated high-resolution to deliver climatic risk management outlooks and topographic and bathymetric data set to address a advice to agricultural producers and water resource range of high-priority coastal issues including coastal managers. Over the past 10 years, the SECC has and marine spatial planning (CMSP), modeling become recognized as a world-class leader in climate impacts, and ecosystem assessments. This adaptive research that addresses stakeholders’ project will include strong interagency collaboration climate information needs and effectively integrates related to data collection, modeling, data standards, trusted stakeholder advisors in the delivery and use information access, and other foundational elements of that information. SECC continues to increase the needed to develop an end-to-end, integrated ocean number of clientele trained to use the online decision and coastal mapping program. Due to the critical support tool, AgroClimate; to increase the number nature of the issues facing the Gulf region, NOAA of crops in the yield forecast model, irrigation tool, will begin pilot efforts in Mississippi and Louisiana county yield database and regional yield maps; in support of the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration and to produce relevant and timely scientific and Working Group and the Interagency Working Group technical publications, with over 100 peer-reviewed on Long Term Disaster Recovery and later expand to publications since 2005. other regions of the country.

30 31 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

Preparing Coastal Communities for Climate Hazards. NASA’s DC-8 aircraft as well as related surface-based NOAA is investing resources to reduce the measurements to provide both calibration/validation vulnerability of coastal communities and the U.S. and complementary scientific information for the economy to the hardship and costs associated with aircraft-based observations. During the six-week climate-related natural hazards. NOAA will apply its program, there were two DC-8 data collection flights scientific and technical expertise to develop improved plus one short instrument testing flight. Students tools and work with communities to apply these addressed problems in several areas, including tools to address the impacts of events such as sea agricultural emissions from dairy farms in the Central level change and other forms of coastal inundation. Valley of California, giant kelp in the Santa Barbara Specifically, this investment will provide climate Channel, and evapotranspiration from orchards and adaptation assessment and planning and coastal row crops in the Central Valley of California. Students inundation modeling, forecasting, and prediction. were involved in mission planning, including NOAA will incorporate sea level change data to consideration of the local meteorology and its impacts provide training and information on understanding on flight conditions and the environmental context coastal risk and vulnerability assessments and of the observations. Students heard presentations develop associated products with Federal (the Federal from scientists and managers from universities and Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), USGS, government, and made presentations to their fellow and the U.S. Army Core of Engineers (USACE)), students, faculty mentors, and NASA personnel at the state, and local agencies to translate science into end of the program. The SARP program maintains management applications. Coastal decision support connectivity among its alumni through social resources (e.g., web portals, Geographic Information networking.23 System (GIS) tools) that integrate social, economic, and climate data in useful and interactive formats will DEVELOP Program Involves Students in Earth Science also be developed. Additionally, NOAA will integrate Applications. NASA’s DEVELOP Program, based observations into climate change projection products at Langley Research Center, awarded 201 student to address impacts and assessments at global, internships supporting 34 applications projects at regional, and local scales and provide accurate and seven NASA centers. Mentored by multi-disciplined timely predictions of changing sea level. scientists and engineers, students conducted a series of applications projects nationwide to enhance Climate Change Communication and decisionmaking activities. Project highlights included Education an air quality team that investigated NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) capabilities during and after Recent Progress and Activity the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to monitor impacts on air and water quality in the Gulf of Mexico; an eco- Completion of Second Student Airborne Research Program coastal management project that researched satellite (SARP). This summer program, organized by the capabilities for measuring estuarine shoreline change, National Suborbital Research and Education Center at vegetation succession, and salt water inundation to the University of North Dakota, brought together 30 assist the North Carolina state government; a biomass students (both undergraduates and graduates) from burning project that examined potential impacts around the country for a six-week period in which of sugarcane and marsh burning on air quality they worked with principal investigators from the and carbon storage to assist Federal air quality University of California (UC) at Santa Cruz, Irvine, monitoring in Louisiana; use of NASA’s Invasive and Davis using the MODIS/ASTER (Moderate Species Forecasting System to map at-risk habitats Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer/Advanced and demonstrate how Maryland state land managers Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection could enhance their decision making processes; and Radiometer) Simulator (MASTER) and Whole Air a natural disasters project that assessed damage, air Sampler (WAS) instruments.22 The program was quality impacts, and public health risks relating to the based at UC Irvine and NASA’s Dryden Aircraft 2009 Station Fire to assist local forest managers with Operations Facility in Palmdale, California. The focus enhanced forest fire management and mitigation. of the program was on making observations aboard 23. See dedicated Facebook page, www.facebook.com/pages/ 22. See www.nserc.und.edu/learning/SARP2010.html Grand-Forks-ND/SARP-2010/299754969335?ref=ts

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DEVELOP students demonstrated project research applications from other agencies as well. Postdocs at over 30 international, national, state, and regional applying to the program for 2010-2011 are invited conferences, and the DEVELOP Program was to submit proposals to work with BoR or any of the highlighted in a series of five articles in The Earth other hosting institutions that have applied to the Observer.24 program.

Postdoctoral Students Applying Climate Expertise Plans for FY 2011 Fellowship Program. NOAA and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (BoR) have sponsored three post- Global Climate Change Education Activities. NASA’s doctorate students (postdocs) since 2008 under Earth Science Division, NOAA, and NSF are planning the Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise (PACE) on coordinating the efforts selected by each agency Fellowship Program. The Program places climate under their Global Climate Change Education scientists at decisionmaking institutions for two- (GCCE) activities funded in 2010. In FY 2011, NASA’s year appointments, during which they are expected GCCE will be a component of NASA’s Minority to transfer the most recent developments in climate University Research and Education Program with science to decisionmaking in climate-sensitive targeted funding to strengthen climate change sectors. NOAA contributes 50% of the cost, and the education at minority-serving institutions and their decisionmaking institutions are asked to contribute collaboration with the broader academic and research the other 50%. The three postdocs funded under enterprise. At the start of FY 2011, NASA’s Office of this new initiative thus far have all been working on Education was sponsoring 57 projects to improve water management- related issues at the DOI (BoR). climate change education at universities, community Each postdoc is assigned a mentor at BoR, while colleges, and K-12 schools, and through non-profit also receiving mentorship from scientists at NOAA’s organizations. The joint planning among NASA, NSF, Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and the and NOAA will include a cross-agency evaluation NOAA-funded Western Water Assessment (WWA) of climate change education sponsored by these Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments agencies. (RISA) program. The first postdoc is expected to complete her two-year term in 2010. The title of her Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the project is “Potential Future Changes in Temporal Environment. NASA, along with NOAA and NSF, Variability of Precipitation in the Colorado River provides Federal support to the Global Learning and Basin.” Two postdocs also began appointments in Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) 2009. One has been working on the issue of future program, providing students around the world climate variability and change and the effect on the the opportunity to make hands-on measurements water resources of the Intermountain West. The and conduct research about the Earth system and other is working on ways that mesocale modeling its changes. The interagency collaboration includes could better define potential changes in precipitation continued planning of the GLOBE Student Climate patterns and extremes in a changing climate. This Research Campaign, modernization of the GLOBE work would help better equip water resources data and information system, and implementation of decisionmakers with assessments of changes under the recommendations outlined in the OSTP report on climate change scenarios as well as quantification of its review of GLOBE.25 uncertainty. All postdocs are encouraged to publish papers with the assistance of their mentors and are expected to present at meetings and conferences. But the success of the postdocs will ultimately be determined by their ability to incorporate science into decisionmaking tools and frameworks that improve the decisionmaking capacities of the host institutions. The BoR has expressed interest in hosting postdocs in 2010-2011, and NOAA has received host institution 25. See www.globe.gov and www.whitehouse.gov/ 24. See eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov/eos_homepage/for_scientists/ blog/2010/04/22/ostp-celebrates-earth-day-2010-with-public- earth_observer.php lecture-new-globe-report

32 33 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

34 PB The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011 OUR CHANGING PLANET V PROGRAM ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION BY AGENCY/DEPARTMENT

he following pages present information about the contributions to the USGCRP by each of the program’s Tparticipating agencies, including program highlights and plans for FY 2011. For each department, the sec- tion titled “Principal Areas of Focus” highlights and summarizes activities ongoing within that department. The sections titled “Activities or Projects Related to the Six USGCRP Focus Areas” follow the same six focus areas as described in the previous section, and the activities described in these sections correlate with the budget crosscut tables in Section VI. While DOD and DOS are active supporters of the USGCRP, their activi- ties and projects are not described in the same format as the others, and they are not included in the budget crosscut and budget tables.

• Department of Agriculture (USDA) • Department of Commerce (DOC) • Department of Defense (DOD) • Department of Energy (DOE) • Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) • Department of the Interior (DOI) • Department of State (DOS) • Department of Transportation (DOT) • Agency for International Development (USAID) • Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) • National Science Foundation (NSF) • Smithsonian Institution (SI)

PB 35 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

U.S. Department of Agriculture balance, biomass, species, plant nutrient status, land cover/land use, and changes in terrestrial states and processes, and includes parameterization of models with remotely sensed data and information.

Forest Inventory and Analysis National Program (USDA- FS).27 The USDA Forest Service is responsible for providing the official U.S. estimates of forest carbon inventory. This entails extensive, regular monitoring along with maintaining instrument networks and Principal Areas of Focus responsible data stewardship. The Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) efforts are integral to understand not The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) sup- only where the carbon is in U.S. ecosystems, but also ports climate change science activities to empower how to effectively measure it. Numerous tools have farmers, foresters, ranchers, land owners, resource been developed, including some national standards managers, policymakers, and Federal agencies with to assess carbon in forests. science-based knowledge to manage the risks and challenges of climate change and to reduce emissions UV-B Monitoring Network (USDA-NIFA-UVBR&M).28,29 of atmospheric greenhouse gases and enhance carbon The stratospheric ozone layer, which blocks most of sequestration. USDA conducts and sponsors a broad the harmful ultraviolet B (UV-B) radiation before it range of research that supports the USGCRP, focused reaches the Earth’s surface, has suffered consider- on evaluating risk to natural resources, estimating able erosion in recent decades due to man-made the role of forestry and agricultural activities in chemicals. UV-B is not typically monitored at weather greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration, stations throughout the United States, leaving the and developing practical management strategies and UV-B Program as the only source of complete UV approaches to manage emissions and adapt to chang- measurements, reaching back to 1996, that span the es. USDA’s research program seeks to determine the entire United States. Program data are being used in significance of terrestrial systems in the global carbon atmospheric, plant, and animal research in collabora- cycle; promotes the capture and use of methane emit- tion with partners from government and land grant ted from livestock waste facilities for on-farm power universities. Each of the 37 network sites has four generation; assesses the potential of bioenergy as a primary instruments: an ultraviolet multifilter rotat- substitute for fossil fuels; identifies agricultural and ing shadowband radiometer; a visible shadowband forestry activities that can help reduce atmospheric radiometer; a UVB-1 broadband meter; and a PAR greenhouse gas concentrations and increase carbon (photosynthetically active radiation) sensor. Each sequestration; quantifies the risks and benefits aris- site also measures solar radiation at six wavelengths ing from environmental changes to agricultural lands in the visible range to determine solar attenuation and forests; and develops management practices that due to clouds and aerosols. The UV-B instruments can adapt to the effects of global change, including measure PAR (400 to 700 nm) with the same sen- potential beneficial and adverse effects. sor that is widely used by agricultural researchers. Temperature, humidity, and surface reflectance are USDA Activities or Projects Related to the Six also measured at all sites. The network provides USGCRP Focus Areas daily and hourly estimates of PAR, UV-B radiation, and ozone to the agricultural community and any 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and other interested users via its web page at . present climate variability and change

Climate Change, Soils, and Emissions Program (USDA-ARS).26 This program is developing remote- sensing systems and algorithms to quantify the states and process of Earth systems affecting or affected by agriculture. It addresses the hydrologic cycle, energy 27. Forest Service 28. National Institute of Food and Agriculture 26. Agricultural Research Service 29. Ultraviolet B Research and Monitoring Program

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2. Improving our understanding of natural and Refining the prediction of climate change impacts on human forces of climate change ecosystems and natural resources (USDA-FS). The Forest Service has generated downscaled climate data for Carbon Cycle Science in Ecosystems (USDA-ARS). The different regions of the country and developed indi- goals of this project are to understand and measure ces for weather, fire, growing season, and changes emissions of greenhouse gases from agricultural to primary vegetation over time for different IPCC sources; develop process level understanding of GHG emissions scenarios. Simulations have examined how emissions; and to develop improved technologies climate change will affect ecosystems with complex and agricultural systems to manage greenhouse gas topography, and an important decision support tool emissions. It includes the Greenhouse gas Reductions has been developed to incorporate land management through Agricultural Carbon Enhancement network decisions into climate change scenarios. Predicted (GRACEnet) project. changes in vegetation and other ecosystem compo- nents have also been used to refine predictions of Carbon Cycle Science in Ecosystems (USDA-FS). The For- future climate conditions through enhancing our est Service investigates pools and fluxes of carbon in understanding of the past. For example, research on ecosystems throughout the country. Studies examine intra-annual tree ring growth in bristlecone pine how the carbon cycle is influenced by forest type, has improved the interpretation of historic climate age, and land use change, along with synergistic and change. Finally, the Forest Service’s Resources Plan- interacting ecosystem feedbacks like fire and insects. ning Act Assessment incorporates IPCC scenarios The Forest Service also evaluates the impacts of forest to predict the future state of natural resources and management on carbon sequestration and green- forest carbon stores 50 years out. house gas emissions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. This information facilitates incorporation of Agriculture systems and technology (USDA-NIFA-AFRI). carbon sequestration considerations into land man- The Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI) agement strategies. Competitive Grants Program includes a joint model- ing program with NSF. Other related projects are Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive multidisciplinary, involve multiple investigators, and Grants Program (USDA-NIFA). The objectives of this address a significant regional issue with respect to program are to reduce atmospheric greenhouse greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation through gas emissions in agricultural and forestry produc- increased resiliency in agriculture production and tion systems and maximize carbon sequestration sustainable natural resources management under potential in agriculture and forest working lands by variable climates. These Integrated Projects are providing producers and decisionmakers with new expected to develop and implement a network for management methods and technologies and new multi-institutional cooperation and coordination, plant cultivars and animal breeds through classical/ data management structures, and defined milestones conventional breeding, relevant biotechnologies, and goals for the duration of the project. and other appropriate approaches. This program has the potential to help mitigate the climate impacts of Integrated Agricultural Impact Assessment System agricultural and forestry production and advance (USDA-NIFA-UVBR&M). Understanding agricultural emerging economic opportunities through a market response to climate and environmental change is system. critical for providing decision support to stakehold- ers, such as agricultural producers, land managers, 3. Improving our capability to model and and policymakers trying to meet the food and fiber predict future conditions and impacts needs of a growing world population. A fully inte- grated impact assessment system has been developed Enable Agriculture to Adapt to Climate Change (USDA- to predict climate-crop interactions and manage ARS). As part of the Carbon Cycle Science in Ecosys- sustainable agricultural production for high profit- tems Program, experiments are conducted to under- ability and environmental quality. Such a system stand the effects of changing climate on agricultural must be sufficiently comprehensive to include crop systems and to develop process-level models to better growth models, UV and visible solar radiation, understand the impact of anticipated climate change Earth’s climate, air and water quality models, and on endemic and exotic pests, weeds, and diseases. satellite and in situ observations. The system by design incorporates models of crop growth and other

36 37 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

vegetation life cycle processes, as well as their living in pests and diseases of crops and forests. Through environments. Thus, the system is a unique tool that realistic modeling of future impact scenarios the is capable of, and readily applicable to, providing Integrated Agricultural Impact Assessment System fundamental scientific bases for effective planning can accurately demonstrate regional and national and control of managed and unmanaged ecosystems. impacts for selected agronomic crops. The models Current crops included in the assessment system are also incorporate past and current agronomic practices cotton and corn. Future versions will also include to reflect realistic management scenarios, which can soybean, wheat, and rice crops. An economic analysis then also be used as modeling variables to investigate component is also under development. those practices that might mitigate future climate change impacts. 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current and anticipated impacts of climate change Economic Implications of Climate Change and Adapta- tion in the Agricultural Sector (USDA-ERS). Economic Enable Agriculture to Adapt to Climate Change (USDA- Research Service (ERS) research will examine how ARS). As part of the Carbon Cycle Science in Eco- farmers’ responses to a changing climate—includ- systems Program, the objective of this project is ing changes in yields, extreme events, and pest to evaluate germplasm, identify genetic variations invasions—will affect domestic crop and livestock that will respond positively to climate change, and production patterns, productivity growth, input use, develop management strategies and crop varieties for crop rotations, economic returns, and environmental adaptation to changing climate conditions. The ap- outcomes. To the extent possible, this effort will link proach taken is to measure and quantify impacts, and to climate, crop, and biophysical modeling efforts in then develop process models that describe impacts other agencies. This line of inquiry focuses on farmer, including management strategies, cropping systems, domestic, and international market responses to a and crop varieties. new climate regime. It will also assess the economic implications of policy options for addressing climate- Impacts of climate change on ecosystems, species, and related increases in risk and costs, including the role natural resources (USDA-FS). The focus of this re- of technologies such as improved genetic resources. search is to explore the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change and examine impacts on specific 5. Providing climate information and decision natural resources and the environmental services on support tools which society depends. The factors affecting species survival and distribution are studied along with Scalable methodologies for assessing potential impacts and historic patterns of species migration (trees, mam- adaptation of agriculture to climate change (USDA-ARS). mals, birds, and other species groups) relevant to As part of the Carbon Cycle Science in Ecosystems forecasting under different future scenarios. Further, Program, this project develops crop growth, erosion, this research cultivates an understanding of how and soil-vegetation-atmosphere models that can be the changing climate affects the quantity, quality, used to build decision support systems for climate and timing of water flows and what the implications change and agriculture and develops guidelines are for fish populations, aquatic habitat, and human for germplasm, production, and water management water supply. This extensive body of work on climate strategies that enable agriculture to adapt to chang- change impacts informs management practices that ing climate conditions. encourage ecosystem resilience and facilitate species migration and seed movement, and assists in defin- Environmental Services Markets Design (USDA-ERS). ing appropriate watershed stewardship approaches As part of the Resource and Rural Economics Pro- and identifying critical connecting hydrologic and gram, support will be given to the development of terrestrial corridors. analytical tools and assessments of the economic, environmental, and land use implications of alterna- Plant health, animal health, production, and products tive climate policies. A primary focus is analysis of (USDA-NIFA). Within the AFRI, these projects will options for offset market design, including predicted include the evaluation of several factors important responses of farmers to greenhouse gas mitigation to agriculture including limits to the adaptability of options and energy cost increases. The objective of animal agriculture to increased heat and disease, the this effort is to help inform the policy process. potential for increased weed problems, and increases

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Technology transfer and science delivery for Forest Service increase the number of scientists, educators, and ex- managers and partners (USDA-FS). The Forest Service tension professionals in the workforce with the skills is developing strategies for climate change adapta- and knowledge to address climate change issues in tion and mitigation. The Research and Development agriculture and improve understanding of climate branch of the agency provides scientific information change, its impacts, and options for environmental and the tools that help land managers estimate car- stewardship among producers and consumers of bon stocks or determine appropriate seed sources, for agricultural and forestry products. example. A web portal is maintained with essential climate change information and tools.30 The Forest Public outreach, student training, applied research, K-16 Service hosts workshops for diverse audiences to education, workforce development, and technology transfer aid in the development of adaptation plans through (USDA-NIFA-UVBR&M). Data generated by the UV-B manuals for the National Forest System. network is shared within 24 hours with the research community through the Program’s web site. Data are Plant health, production, and plant products (USDA-NI- also available to the public, with mapped data being FA-AFRI). Through the AFRI, funded projects inves- particularly public-friendly. Graduate student train- tigate how to maximize resiliency; reduce the impact ing at Colorado State University, at several Chinese of climate change on the productivity of agriculture institutions, and other land-grant universities is also and forest systems; and reduce carbon, nitrogen, and supported by the UV-B Program. In 2009, the Pro- water footprints under changing climates by provid- gram joined the AmericaView network, a nationwide ing producers and decisionmakers with new manage- program that focuses on satellite remote-sensing data ment methods, technologies, new plant cultivars and and technologies in support of applied research, K-16 animal breeds adapted to changing climates through education, workforce development, and technology classical/conventional breeding, and other appropri- transfer.31 ate approaches to adapt to changing climates. Department of Commerce Policy and economic impact of future scenarios (USDA-NI- FA-UVBR&M). Through the Integrated Agricultural Impact Assessment System Program, scenarios and yield maps are generated for policymakers to better understand regional and national shifts in productiv- ity. Combined with economic analyses, these shifts can illustrate significant geographically linked changes in U.S. food systems. Principal Areas of Focus 6. Climate Change Communication and Education The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- tion (NOAA) and the National Institute of Standards Public outreach to engage communities, tribes, partners, and Technology (NIST) comprise the Department of and youth (USDA-FS). The Forest Service engages com- Commerce contribution to the USGCRP. munities, tribes, and partners by synthesizing and making available its research by conducting outreach NOAA’s climate mission is to “understand climate for family forest owners and also through local variability and change to enhance society’s ability to workshops. For example, “science days” have been plan and respond.” This is an end-to-end endeavor sponsored at several National Forests to facilitate whose overall objective is to provide decisionmak- an understanding of the impacts of climate change. ers with a predictive understanding of the climate Youth participation has been expanded to connect and to communicate climate information so that the them with ongoing research and the resources and public can incorporate it into their decisions. These benefits of public lands while gaining an understand- outcomes are achieved through implementation ing of the challenges posed by climate change. of a global observing system, focused research to understand key climate processes, improved model- Renewable energy, natural resources, and environment ing capabilities, and the development and delivery of (USDA-NIFA-AFRI). The goal of this project is to climate information services. NOAA aims to achieve

30. See www.fs.fed.us/ccrc 31. See americaview.org/

38 39 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

its climate mission and outcomes through the follow- on causes of climate extremes and climate change, ing objectives: and new and improved methodologies to create more reliable climate predictions at all time scales. • Describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observations, monitor- Global Ocean Observation System (NOAA-OAR). ing, and data management The Global Ocean Observation System (GOOS) is • Understand and predict climate variability and maintained by the Climate Program Office and is change from weeks to decades to a century necessary for climate research and prediction as well • Improve the ability of society to plan for and as long-term monitoring for climate change detection respond to climate variability and change. and attribution. NOAA provides the major U.S. con- tribution to the Global Component of the Integrated NOAA relies on its Federal, academic, private, and Ocean Observing System (IOOS)—the U.S. contribu- international partners to achieve its objectives. These tion to the GOOS and ocean baseline of the Global objectives are implemented through three distinct, Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). GOOS yet integrated, programs: Climate Observation and was designed to meet climate requirements, but it Monitoring, Climate Research and Modeling, and also provides the global ocean backbone needed to Climate Services Development. support weather and storm prediction, global and coastal ocean prediction, marine hazards warning, NIST provides measurements and standards that transportation, marine environment and ecosystem support accurate, comparable, and reliable climate monitoring, and naval applications. The major observations. NIST also performs calibrations and elements of GOOS are: Argo profiling floats, surface special tests of a wide range of instruments and drifting buoys, tide gauge stations, tropical moored techniques for accurate measurements. In FY 2009, buoys, ocean reference stations, Ships of Oppor- NIST was included as a discrete element of the tunity Program (SOOP), ocean carbon networks, USGCRP crosscut to provide specific measurements Arctic Ocean observing system, dedicated ships, and standards of direct relevance to the program. data management, data assimilation, and analysis. Satellites are also critical elements of this composite DOC Activities or Projects Related to the Six system, but they are listed elsewhere in the NOAA USGCRP Focus Areas and NASA budgets. It must be emphasized that all of these interdependent elements working together 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and provide the needed system. present climate variability and change Climate Data and Information Products and Climate The 2009 State of the Climate Report. Every year since Operations (NOAA-OAR). These efforts provide 1990, NOAA has released an annual report detailing backbone atmospheric reference observing systems the state of the climate. The latest annual report, the (temperature and precipitation) and the necessary 2009 State of the Climate, is a 218-page report compiled administrative support structure to implement and by more than 300 scientists from 48 countries, includ- steward various climate programs and earmarks. ing many USGCRP contributors. As in previous years, the report provides information on the impacts National Data Centers, environmental data, information, of globally increasing temperatures. This year’s products, and services (NOAA-NESDIS).33 Together, report highlights the conclusion to the hottest decade NOAA’s three National Data Centers provide envi- on record. The final year of the decade had the third- ronmental data, information, products, and services lowest Arctic sea ice extent since 1979; the warmest to support atmospheric, hydrologic, oceanographic, and second-warmest years on record for India and and the solid Earth and solar-terrestrial physical sci-

Australia, respectively; and CO2 concentrations that ences. The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) is are increasing at a rate well above average. the largest climate data center in the world, and is the Nation’s designated Federal records center for climate Climate Variability Research (NOAA-OAR).32 The goal data. NCDC receives, processes, archives, provides of this effort is to understand climate variability and access, disseminates, and conducts objective assess- change by providing new and improved components of climate models, new and improved understanding 33. National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service 32. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research

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ments of remote (satellite) and in situ (land, ocean, our understanding of how atmospheric composition and atmosphere) observations. affects climate. For example, an analysis shows that the observed decline in stratospheric water vapor Jason 3 (NOAA-NESDIS). Jason-3 will allow the con- of about 10% since 2000 helps explain why global tinuity of high-precision ocean topography measure- surface temperatures have not risen as fast in the ments beyond TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Jason-2, last 10 years as they did in the 1980s and 1990s; a which are now operational in orbit. It will also model-independent energy balance analysis confirms provide a bridge to an operational mission to enable the cooling effect of atmospheric aerosols from the continuation of multi-decadal ocean topography human-related sources (pollution, biomass burning, measurements. Jason 3 will offer the same ocean and other sources) previously estimated in the 2007 measurement accuracy as Jason 2, including near- IPCC assessment; and another recent study shows

coastal zones, as well as lakes and rivers. that anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are now the highest of any ozone-damaging substance Climate Satellite Sensors (NOAA-NESDIS). These currently emitted, and are projected to remain so for instrument development projects are essential to the rest of this century. meeting the NOAA Strategic Plan Climate Goal to understand climate variability and change. These Other Greenhouse Gas Observations and Research sensors will ensure that NOAA continues to pro- (NOAA-OAR). This activity provides observations

vide current, accurate, relevant, and timely climate and research on non-CO2 greenhouse gases, includ- information to the scientific community and other ing water vapor, methane, N2O, ozone, and fluoro- interested parties through the monitoring of atmo- carbons. The activity also carries out research on a

spheric conditions (including CO2, sulfur dioxide, variety of processes that impact air quality. The Air nitrous oxide, water vapor, methane, ozone, soot, and Resources Laboratory (ARL) primarily addresses the aerosols), measurements of solar energy reaching the transport, transformation, and removal of trace sub- Earth’s atmosphere (radiative forcing), and the Earth’s stances in the atmosphere, as well as the interaction reflected and radiated energy. between trace substances and the Earth’s radiative balance. ARL’s field and laboratory studies lead to the National and International Standards for Measurement development of air quality simulation models. (NIST). NIST, through its Greenhouse Gas and Climate Change Program, provides the measurement Carbon Cycle Observations and Research (NOAA-OAR). science and standards to help ensure the accuracy, The U.S. scientific community coordinates its carbon reliability, compatibility, and traceability of climate cycle activities through an integrated interagency and greenhouse gas observations, which underpin effort that aims to quantify, understand, and project climate model predictions and policy decisions. the evolution of global carbon sources and sinks in order to better predict future climate. As part of this 2. Improving our understanding of natural and multiagency effort, NOAA has launched a network human forces of climate change of airborne and tall-tower based sampling sites over North America. With input from other agencies, this Improve understanding of how atmospheric composition program forms the foundation for routine spatial affects climate (NOAA-OAR). This activity performs carbon maps and periodic State of the Carbon Cycle research to understand and quantify the chemical reports that will keep scientists and policymakers processes responsible for the changes and transfor- abreast of progress in understanding the North mations in the atmosphere related to climate, the American carbon cycle. stratospheric ozone layer, and air quality; closely related meteorological, dynamical, and radiative 3. Improving our capability to model and processes are also addressed when necessary. These predict future conditions and impacts goals are met through studies in the laboratory, ex- tensive measurements in the atmosphere in focused Climate Modeling (NOAA-OAR). The goals of this field studies, diagnostic analyses, representation activity are to improve decadal to centennial climate of these processes in models (in collaboration with change projections and to provide more reliable others in NOAA and the extramural community), estimates of the impacts of climate variability and and interpreting the results to elucidate the roles change on physical variables, ecosystems, and life of these processes. Several recent studies improve resources. The activity addresses predictability of

40 41 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

weather on large and small scales; the structure, used to improve recruitment prediction and stock variability, predictability, stability, and sensitivity of assessments; developing and generating indices global and regional climate; the structure, variability and assessment tools used in fisheries management; and dynamics of the ocean over its many space and and conducting research that provides accessible time scales; the interaction of the atmosphere and environmental and ecosystem data for the eastern oceans, and how the atmosphere and oceans influ- Bering Sea. ence and are influenced by various trace constituents; and Earth’s atmospheric general circulation within 5. Providing climate information and decision the context of the family of planetary atmospheric support tools circulations.

Operational Short-Term Forecasting and Monitoring Adaptive Management Support (NOAA-OAR). This (NOAA-NWS).34 This activity includes the strategic activity provides national leadership in developing vision and production of climate services consist- interdisciplinary science and services for applica- ing of operational prediction of climate variability; tion in climate-sensitive sectors (including drought) monitoring of the climate system and development of and regions. The goals include: 1) identification and databases for determining current climate anomalies articulation of user-community requirements in mul- and trends; and analysis and assessment of their tiple sectors, initially with regard to water resources origins and linkages to the rest of the climate system. and the coastal zone and then branching to related The activity supports development of policy and sectors; 2) research and development of innova- requirements for climate prediction products and tive and broadly applicable approaches to support other services related to the period of week two out decisionmaking, especially for risk characterization, to one year, including seasonal forecasts and threat both through a broad network of regionally scoped, assessments. long-term efforts and stakeholder-specific efforts; and 3) promotion of the transfer of knowledge, tools, and High Performance Computing (NOAA-OAR/CIO).35 The products across climate service development efforts High Performance Computing (HPC) activity sup- (within NOAA, across the Federal government, ports many NOAA Strategic Plan objectives through nationally, and internationally). support of information technology (IT) research targeted at improving NOAA’s mission, services, Assessments (NOAA-OAR). The goal of this activity is and science education. HPC seeks to make major to sustain a program of assessment services linking improvements in the ability to forecast weather and climate science and climate services via the following climate, and disseminate environmental information activities: developing cross-sectoral climate assess- by stimulating modernization of NOAA’s computa- ments at national and regional scales; establishing a tionally intensive services. HPC provides NOAA with sustained climate attribution program; and monitor- mission agency representation in the Interagency ing national and regional socioeconomic trends. Working Group on IT Research and Development. The National Integrated Drought Information System 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current (NIDIS). The NIDIS improves the Nation’s capacity to and anticipated impacts of climate change proactively manage drought-related risks by provid- ing those affected with the best available information and tools to assess the potential impacts of drought, Climate and Ecosystems (NOAA-NMFS).36 The goal of and to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of this activity is to predict the probable consequences drought. The NIDIS will enable users to determine of global climate change for ecological systems and the risks associated with drought and provide sup- their living resources, and to deliver to fisheries porting data and tools to inform drought mitigation. and coastal zone managers the knowledge and The development of the NIDIS is happening through tools needed to incorporate climate variability a coordinated, multi-faceted program of research, into the management of living marine ecosystems. observations, forecast improvements, drought early The activity is developing climate-forced models warning systems, and a portal to provide access to drought-related data and information. 34. National Weather Service 35. Chief Information Officer 36 .National Marine Fisheries Service

42 43 OUR CHANGING PLANET

6. Climate Change Communication and • Climate and Society Master’s Program: This Education program enables understanding of climate science, decision processes, and social needs to Communication and Education (NOAA-OAR). NOAA’s deliver management strategies that incorporate climate communication and education programs climate. The International Research Institute support the development of strong and comprehen- has developed the core courses of the program sive communications and education materials about for Climate and Society in collaboration climate and oceanic and atmospheric sciences. NOAA with Columbia University faculty in climate, is committed to supporting and facilitating system- engineering, policy, public health, economics, wide change of the formal and informal education political science, statistics, psychology, sociology, system to build educators’ capacity to produce and anthropology. climate-literate citizens. Such change requires engagement and participation across the spectrum of Department of DEFENSE the communications and education community—in- cluding policymakers, academic institutions, profes- sional associations, teachers, and students. Some of these programs include:

• Climate Portal: The program provides an audience-focused approach to promoting climate science literacy among the public. It commu- nicates the challenges, processes, and results of NOAA-supported climate science through Principal Areas of Focus stories and data visualizations on the web and in popular media. Provides information to a range The Department of Defense (DOD) —while not of audiences to enhance society’s ability to plan supporting a formal mission dedicated to global and respond to climate variability and change. change research—continues a history of participation Additionally, the Climate Portal Education sec- in the USGCRP through sponsored research that tion provides a collection of excellent educational concurrently satisfies both national security require- resources so educators, students, and citizens can ments and the goals of the USGCRP. 37 All data and increase their climate literacy and their ability to scientific results obtained using DOD basic research make informed decisions. funds are routinely made available to the civil science community. DOD science and technology invest- • Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate ments are coordinated and reviewed by the Office of Sciences—A Guide for Individuals and Communities. the Secretary of Defense (Office of Basic Sciences) and This guide presents important information for in- the individual research agencies—the Office of Naval dividuals and communities to understand Earth’s Research (ONR), the Air Force Office of Scientific climate, the impacts of climate change, and ap- Research (AFOSR), the Army Research Office (ARO), proaches for adapting to and mitigating change. and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Principles in the guide can serve as discussion (DARPA). Together they have the responsibility to starters or launching points for scientific inquiry. jointly develop the DOD Basic Research Plan (BRP), The guide can also serve educators who teach which undergoes a biennial program review by a climate science as part of their science curricula, panel of experts from universities, industry, and and is available to help individuals of all ages nonprofit research institutions (Defense Basic Re- understand how climate influences them—and search Review). As the performance of DOD systems, how they influence climate. The Education Inter- platforms, and operations may be influenced by the agency Working Group led by NOAA and with natural environmental conditions, understanding the NSF and NASA participation compiled the guide. variability in the Earth’s environment is of interest to This guide is a resource for the management many DOD science programs. Much of the research of Federal education grant programs and both performed under the ONR’s Operational Environ- Federal and non-Federal educational programs across the nation. 37. While DOD is an active supporter of the USGCRP, there are no DOD activities included in the budget crosscut and therefore, DOD does not appear in the budget tables.

42 43 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

ments focus area and the ARO’s Environmental (HYCOM), a predictive model that runs efficiently in Sciences Division, for example, lead to fundamental parallel computing environments and includes so- understanding of physical processes that are of phisticated techniques for the assimilation of satellite particular relevance to the USGCRP. and in situ observations. These HYCOM-based ocean predictions are made available to coastal and regional In the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), the users, as well as to the wider oceanographic and sci- DOD formally recognized the need to understand entific community, including climate and ecosystem and adapt to the impacts of climate change on DOD researchers, students, and the general public. facilities and military capabilities. The DOD relies on the Strategic Environmental Research and Develop- The DOD also supports a number of basic research ment Program (SERDP), a joint effort among DOD, programs within its individual science agencies DOE, and EPA, to develop climate change assessment that are directed toward mission-specific science tools. The DOD will regularly reevaluate climate requirements, but which often also project onto the change risks and opportunities in order to develop science goals of the USGCRP. For example, within policies and plans to manage its effects on the the “Operational Environments” focus area at the Department’s operating environment, missions, and ONR, both observational and modeling elements facilities. are incorporated into major field programs designed to advance basic understanding of the physics and Program Highlights for FY 2011 dynamics of the Earth’s environment. The develop- ment of new sensors, sensing platforms, and sensing Global Model Development strategies is supported in order to achieve these goals, and ongoing research into predictive systems In coordination with other Federal agencies respon- for the ocean and atmosphere is supported with the sible for operational weather and climate forecasting, goal of improving environmental forecasts for DOD, the Navy is participating in research activities to although these are also of primary importance in develop an Earth System Prediction Capability. This climate models. One recent outcome from this focus next-generation prediction system will consist of a area was a new coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere computationally efficient integrated Earth system model for hurricanes that shows significant promise model, global observations, advanced data assimila- in improving forecasts of storm intensity. This work tion capabilities, and a data communication strategy continues in FY 2011 to explore the generation mecha- to enable the system’s implementation at multiple nisms of tropical cyclones and their resulting impact operational centers. The centerpiece of the effort is on upper ocean thermal structure. The research may the design and implementation of a global, high- lead to a better representation of these systems in resolution, coupled atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, climate simulations and improved understanding of and space modeling framework that will support a the sensitivity of these high-impact weather events to daily-to-decadal forecast capability. This activity will climate change. support basic and applied research to develop inno- vative approaches and techniques that originate not Polar Regions Research only within the Federal laboratories of the participat- ing agencies, but also at non-governmental research Of particular recent interest to the DOD are the agencies and academic institutions. The effort is observation, understanding, and prediction of expected to involve an initial 10-year investment in diminished Arctic sea ice cover, as the military may the research and development phase, beginning in be required to respond to any emerging national FY 2011. security issues. The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Engineer Research and Development Center The Navy is a principal member of the National (ERDC) Cold Regions Research and Engineering Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP), a Laboratory (CRREL) actively investigates the im- broad consortium of agencies that collaborate in the pacts of climate trends for USACE, the Army, DOD, development and demonstration of integrated ocean and other agencies. The CRREL research program observations systems, data management systems, and responds to the needs of the military, but much of real-time coastal, basin-scale, and global ocean pre- the research also benefits the civilian sector and diction systems. Via NOPP, the ONR funds ongoing is funded by non-military customers such as NSF, development of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model NOAA, NASA, DOE, and state governments. Satellite

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data show a downward trend in the summer extent Arctic exercises and operations (e.g., Northern Edge of Arctic sea ice in recent years, and the sonar data 2009, Arctic Care 2010, NATSIQ/NANOOK 2010 with collected by U.S. Navy submarines in the Arctic Canada, Pacer Goose 2010), approval by the CNO of a between 1957 and 2000 show the average ice thick- three-year plan for Navy-Coast Guard activity in the ness has decreased between 33 and 42%. CRREL Arctic, the completion of two Arctic research cruises applies science and engineering research to address by scientists from the Naval Research Laboratory, and climate impacts for DOD and other Federal and state the development of a U.S. interagency consortium agencies, and through cooperative agreements with to improve operational and climatic environmental academic institutions and private industry. modeling. Activities planned for FY 2011 include the conduction of the Arctic Ice exercise by the Navy In FY 2010, the Navy decided to re-invigorate the Submarine Force, sponsorship of a Navy Climate Science Ice Exercise (SCICEX) program, under which Change Forum, initiation of a Navy climate change nuclear submarines are used to make observations adaptation capabilities-based assessment, conduct- of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in support of ing several Arctic exercises and operations (e.g., scientific understanding. SCICEX Phase 1 (1993 to Arctic Care 2010), and formal discussions to expand 1999) made significant in situ observations of sea ice cooperative international partnerships regarding the for the scientific community, and these efforts will Arctic and climate change. continue in SCICEX Phase II, beginning in 2011. The Navy’s Arctic Submarine Laboratory will help The SERDP funds multiple research and development facilitate a new era of support for Arctic observations efforts to understand the impacts that climate change using the Navy’s nuclear submarine assets, and in will have on military natural and built infrastructure collaboration with the scientific research community across the United States and its territories. In FY 2009, will devise sampling plans to add to the body of a program was begun to develop analysis methods to scientific knowledge and increase understanding of assess the impact of sea level rise on military infra- the dynamic Arctic environment. structure. Numerous U.S. DOD facilities are located on the coast, on water bodies that are or will become Related Assessment and Adaptation Activities tidally influenced, or in coastal or island areas that will be affected by sea level rise. As a result of the Given current best estimates of future climate change, inherent correlation between sea level rise and storm as well as directly observed trends in sea ice cover in surge damage, this research also includes assessment the Arctic, the DOD has begun to assess the impacts of the potential impacts caused by increased sea level on DOD assets and missions areas. In FY 2009, the compounded by accompanying storm activity. A Navy formed Task Force Climate Change (TFCC) to separate program was initiated to develop the science advise the Chief of Naval Operations on the impact to support managing and restoring coastal ecosys- of climate change on the Navy and develop science- tems in the southeastern United States in the context based recommendations, plans, and actions to adapt of potential climate change. Of particular interest to climate change. In FY 2010, TFCC developed an are the potential impacts of climate change and the “Arctic Road Map” and a broader “Climate Change attendant ecological response of already stressed Road Map” to guide Navy investment, assessment, ecological systems and their associated threatened, research, and operational activities related to changes endangered, and at-risk species on military lands in in the Navy’s operational environment. Activities the Southeast. Both of these programs will continue initiated or completed in FY 2009 and FY 2010 under through FY 2011. In FY 2010, work began to develop these two road maps include several studies regard- the science and tools to support managing and ing the impact of climate change on Navy installa- recovering ecological systems in the southwestern tions and missions, three table-top exercises and war United States that are currently impacted by altered games to inform future strategic planning regarding fire regimes and non-native invasive plant species. the Arctic and global climate change, incorporation Of particular interest are the interactions between of climate change science and security considerations non-native invasive plants and altered fire regimes, in the curricula of Navy educational institutions (U.S. their potential impacts on southwest ecological Naval Academy, Naval Post Graduate School, and the systems and associated threatened, endangered, and Naval War College), completion of the SCICEX Plan, at-risk species, and the role that climate change may signature by the CNO of the Navy’s Strategic Objec- play in further exacerbating these interactions. In FY tives for the Arctic Region, participation in several 2011, new research will begin to improve our under-

44 45 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

standing of the potential impacts of climate change ing clouds, aerosols, and the terrestrial carbon cycle; on ecological systems that occur on DOD testing large-scale climate change modeling; experimental and training lands in Alaska. Of particular concern research on the effects of climate change on eco- are climate change impacts that could lead to state systems; and integrated analysis of climate change changes or regime shifts in ecological systems, and impacts. the quantification of impacts due to changes in fire and hydrologic regimes, establishment and spread DOE supports three primary research activities along of invasive species and forest pests, and freeze-thaw with a national scientific user facility. The areas of cycles associated with permafrost. research are Atmospheric System Research, Envi- ronmental System Science, and Climate and Earth Other DOD-sponsored research contributes to System Modeling. DOE also supports the Atmospher- observing, understanding, and predicting environ- ic Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research mental processes related to global change. These Facility (ACRF), a scientific user facility. associated research programs include theoretical studies and observations of solar phenomena, While not included in the USGCRP crosscut, the DOE monitoring and modeling of unique features in the Office of Climate Change Policy and Technology middle and upper atmosphere, terrestrial and marine located within the Office of Policy and International environmental quality research, alternative energy Affairs serves as the focal point within DOE for the generation, and energy conservation measures. development, coordination, and implementation of The DOD’s continued investment in environmental DOE-related aspects of climate change technical pro- research infrastructure—such as the Navy’s procure- grams, policies, and initiatives. This office also serves ment of two new ocean-going research vessels for as the secretariat for the Climate Change Technology the University-National Oceanographic Laboratory Program (CCTP). System (UNOLS) fleet, scheduled for delivery in 2014, and the various services’ operational oceanographic DOE Activities or Projects Related to the Six and meteorological computational centers—will USGCRP Focus Areas continue to provide data and services useful to the scientific community and the USGCRP. 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and present climate variability and change Department of Energy

ARM Climate Research Facility and Data Management (DOE-BER).38 As a scientific user facility, the ACRF provides the broad climate change scientific commu- nity with technical capabilities, scientific expertise, and unique information. ARM provides long-term continuous field measurements of climate data from stationary and mobile platforms and instruments at fixed and varying locations around the globe. Principal Areas of Focus These measurements support the advancement of process understanding of the cloud lifecycle, aerosol Research supported by the Department of Energy lifecycle, and cloud-aerosol-precipitation interactions. (DOE) Office of Science focuses on the effects of ener- The stationary sites are located in three different gy production and use on the global climate system. climate regions (mid-latitude, arctic, and tropical); This predictive, systems-level understanding of the the operating paradigm of continuous measurement fundamental science associated with climate change of atmospheric and surface properties at long-term is key to the DOE mission. The integrated portfolio sites is well suited to climate studies. The two mobile of research ranges from molecular-level to field-scale facilities provide a capability to address high-priority studies with emphasis on multidisciplinary experi- scientific questions in other regions. The ACRF mentation and the use of advanced computer models. aerial capability provides in situ cloud and radiation The science and cutting-edge research capabilities measurements that complement the ground-based supported enable DOE leadership in climate-relevant measurements. atmospheric process research and modeling, includ- 38. Office of Biological and Environmental Research

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The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (DOE- of climatic processes into Earth System Models CDIAC). The CDIAC provides full and open access (ESMs) with high computational throughput to to quality-assured carbon cycle data for climate provide simulations of climate variability and change research. Data holdings include records of the change over decadal to centennial time scales.

concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other green- Research includes the incorporation of improved house gases; the role of the terrestrial biosphere and physical representations (e.g., atmospheric, the oceans in biogeochemical cycles of greenhouse biogeochemical, terrestrial, land-surface-ice,

gases; emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere; long-term aerosols, and clouds) in the specific modules of climate trends; the effects of elevated CO2 on vegeta- the coupled model; development of algorithms tion; and the vulnerability of coastal areas to rising and computational methods for coupling of ESM sea level. Supported projects include DOE-supported components; coupling and testing of ESM compo-

Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments and nents; abrupt climate change; and visualization major interagency projects such as the AmeriFlux and analysis.

network and measurements of CO2 taken aboard ocean research vessels. • Integrated Assessment research provides scien- tific insights into options for mitigation of and 2. Improving our understanding of natural and adaptation to climate change through multi-scale human forces of climate change models of the entire climate system, including human processes responsible for greenhouse gas Atmospheric System Research (DOE-BER). The Atmo- emissions, land use, and combined impacts on spheric System Research activity seeks to resolve the and feedbacks from changing human and natural two major areas of uncertainty in climate change systems, including the energy system. Impor- model projections: the role of clouds and the effects tantly, Integrated Assessment research develops of aerosol emissions on the atmospheric radiation bal- advanced quantitative tools for exploring the ance. The emphasis for Atmospheric System Research implications of science and technology decisions is on understanding and modeling the radiation and innovations for our energy, environmental, balance from the surface of the Earth to the top of and economic futures. the atmosphere and how this balance is affected by clouds, aerosols, and increases in the concentration of 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. and anticipated impacts of climate change

3. Improving our capability to model and Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (DOE-BER). This research predict future conditions and impacts develops a scientific understanding of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and the role Climate and Earth System Modeling (DOE-BER). This of terrestrial ecosystems in global carbon cycling. The activity focuses on the development, evaluation, and research focuses on determining the effects of climate use of large-scale climate change models to deter- change on the structure and functioning of terrestrial mine the impacts and possible mitigation of climate ecosystems, understanding the processes controlling

change. These efforts include the following: the exchange rate of CO2 between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere, evaluating terrestrial

• Regional and Global Climate Modeling focuses source-sink mechanisms for atmospheric CO2, and on the development, evaluation, and use of improving the reliability of global carbon cycle mod- regional and global climate models to project els for predicting future atmospheric concentrations

future climate with quantified uncertainty. The of CO2. A large-scale, long-term ecosystem experi- models span temporal scales of decades to cen- ment to test the effects of climate change on Arctic turies and spatial scales from regional to global. permafrost has been initiated. Regional and Global Climate Modeling supports the basic research needed to support national 5. Providing climate information and decision and international climate modeling research and support tools assessments.

• Earth System Modeling focuses on the develop- ment and integration of various components

46 47 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011 6. Climate Change Communication and HHS collaborative efforts Education HHS actively participated in the ad-hoc Interagency Global Change Education Program (DOE-BER). This Working Group on Climate Change and Health program supported graduate and undergraduate (IWGCCH) that produced and published a compre- fellows, and was completed in FY 2010. hensive overview of research needs in climate change and health. The report, A Human Health Perspective Department of HEALTH on Climate Change: A Report Outlining the Research AND HUMAN SERVICES Needs on the Human Health Effects of Climate Change, provides a starting point for agencies to use in evaluating and prioritizing future climate change and health research. The National Institute of Envi- ronmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) coordinated this effort and provided both the coordinating lead author and editor, while CDC also provided authorship and editing support. Similarly, HHS is involved in the new Crosscutting Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG) that has been created under Principal Areas of Focus the auspices of the USGCRP. NIH and CDC both participate in this effort. NIEHS co-chairs the effort, The Department of Health and Human Services with EPA and OSTP serving as the other co-chairs. (HHS) supports a broad portfolio of research related This new group will define research and scientific to environmental health and the health effects of priorities for the human health consequences of cli- global change. The National Institutes of Health mate change across the Federal government and span (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control and the continuum of research to application by aiming Prevention (CDC) provide the focus for this effort. to provide decision support tools and other resources that will enable informed decisionmaking at local, The potential health effects of climate change are state, tribal, national, and international levels. not fully understood. Complex interactions between humans, ecosystems, and the changing environment National Institutes of Health will lead to a variety of complicated health effects. Some of these effects are already occurring. Higher NIH work in climate change involves numerous temperatures will likely increase tropospheric ozone Institutes and Centers and focuses principally on concentrations that contribute to cardiovascular and the mechanisms of climate-sensitive diseases and pulmonary illness. Droughts and floods can cause conditions and their impacts on health outcomes. injury and lead to sanitation problems as well as NIH supports USGCRP research on the health effects mold and chemical exposures. The ranges of vector- of air pollution and temperature, water quality borne and zoonotic pathogens and the transmission and quantity, infectious disease transmission, and of food and water-borne pathogens are likely to be materials used in new technologies to mitigate or affected. Extreme heat events are predicted to become adapt to climate change. Topics being investigated by more frequent and intense, and such events will have NIH include the direct health impacts of increased a major impact on areas and populations that are not temperatures and extreme weather events; impacts of well adapted to them. The limited set of activities and climate change on water and food quality including projects identified in the FY 2009 through FY 2010 contamination during extreme events and the health USGCRP HHS budgets are focused on improving our effects of changes in temperature of coastal waters; capability to model and predict the impacts of climate and direct and indirect effects of climate change change on human health. These are briefly described on human diseases such as asthma and respiratory relative to the USGCRP Goals in the following diseases and vector-borne and infectious diseases. section. More extensive HHS efforts not identified in NIH also supports research and training activities on the USGCRP budget are described further on in this physical injuries and post-traumatic stress disorders, agency description. The full scope of HHS activities development of disaster and emergency response

and projects will help to predict and address these planning tools, and the use of microbes to reduce CO2 and other health consequences of climate change. emissions.

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NIH has been involved in several targeted initiatives implement comprehensive climate and health adapta- and activities focused on climate change and health. tion plans. CDC also has developed and produced NIEHS and the Fogarty International Center (FIC) decisionmaking tools for local health practitioners, co-chair a trans-NIH Working Group on Climate including a Code Red Heat Awareness Campaign Change and Health with active participation from toolkit for athletic trainers to educate on how to rec- 18 NIH Institutes and Centers. The group’s goals are ognize, treat, and prevent heat-related illness among to identify research needs and priorities for an NIH their student athletes. research agenda for climate change and health, to identify and coordinate relevant research and train- A focus on workforce development and capacity ing activities, and to engage the broader biomedical building in the public health sector has been imple- research community in discussions of the health mented through a series of CDC-hosted webinars effects of climate change. NIEHS also partnered with titled “Climate Change: Mastering the Public Health the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Role.” The series focuses on effectively communicat- and the Wellcome Trust to commission a series of ing the health-related aspects of climate change. In studies examining the relationships between climate addition, CDC and the National Center for Atmo- change mitigation measures and household energy spheric Research (NCAR) co-host a postdoctoral emissions, urban land transportation, low-carbon research fellowship focusing on climate and health. electricity generation, agriculture and food, and CDC also directly funds and provides technical short-lived greenhouse pollutants. assistance to 18 research projects investigating specific aspects of climate and health, ranging from NIH recently initiated a new focused research a University of California Davis study on the impact program that encourages research applications to of climate change on mosquito-borne arbovirus assess and characterize the differential risk factors transmission to a Georgia Institute of Technology of populations that lead to or are associated with study on the impact of Climate-Responsive Design on increased vulnerability to exposures, diseases, and heat-related morbidity and mortality other adverse health outcomes related to climate change. The ultimate goal of this research program HHS Activities or Projects Related to the Six is to help inform climate change adaptation and USGCRP Focus Areas public health interventions to reduce vulnerability of various populations to the health effects of climate 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and change. NIEHS is the primary institute issuing the present climate variability and change funding opportunity announcement, with 10 of the remaining 26 Institutes and Centers of the NIH participating. Research applications will be accepted 2. Improving our understanding of natural and over a three-year period with a first set of awards human forces of climate change made in FY 2011. This activity is not listed in the HHS budget table. 3. Improving our capability to model and predict future conditions and impacts Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

CDC uses a multi-pronged strategy to investigate Human Health Impacts of Climate Change (NIH-NIEHS, the health effects of climate change while bolster- FIC, NIGMS, NLM). As part of the American Recov- ing research efforts and implementing adaptation ery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, NIH requested re- strategies. In collaboration with the Association for search proposals that focused on the development of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO) and models to predict the health effects of climate change. the National Association of County and City Health Five studies were funded under this mechanism: two Officials (NACCHO), CDC provides funding and by NIEHS, and one each by FIC, the National Insti- technical assistance to five state health departments tute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS), and the and seven local health departments to develop pilot National Library of Medicine (NLM). This research projects addressing the public health consequences of will directly support the development of quantita- climate change. In FY 2010, CDC expanded this effort tive and predictive models of the effects of climate by launching a series of grants to build the capacity change on disease burden and health outcomes that of state and local health departments to develop and are needed to facilitate public health planning and

48 49 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

inform adaptation strategies. Health outcomes that published in The Lancet on the health benefits of are being modeled under these grants include heat tackling climate change. These reports were pub- morbidity and mortality, respiratory and cardio- lished in print and online and disseminated broadly. vascular effects of wildfires, asthma, skin cancer, The Lancet series was launched in a joint U.S.-UK salmonellosis, cholera, and diseases associated with videoconference with global climate change and climate-induced population displacement. health leaders participating. The research needs Unsolicited Grants in Health and Climate Change paper was published on Earth Day by Environmental Research (NIH-NIEHS, FIC, NIGMS, NLM). The NIH Health Perspectives (EHP), and was accompanied Research Portfolio Online Reporting Tools lists 17 by Congressional briefings in the House and Senate. projects under the category Climate Change funded The NIEHS website contains climate change-related by seven different Institutes and Centers. information pages throughout the site for different audiences and in relation to different institute pro- 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current grams. The EHP website also contains a large body of and anticipated impacts of climate change research and information on climate change includ- ing a dedicated news topic page. NIEHS staff fre- 5. Providing climate information and decision quently speak at scientific and stakeholder meetings, seminars, and conferences on the subject of climate support tools change and health. NIEHS staff are also currently engaged in multiple interagency climate change com- 6. Climate Change Communication and munications planning and strategy activities as core Education representatives of HHS.

Centers for Disease Control. CDC leads and participates Department of THE INTERIOR in a number of educational programs focusing cli- mate and health. CDC, along with the American Pub- lic Health Association (APHA), NACCHO, ASTHO, and the Society for Public Health Education (SOPHE), is co-sponsoring and hosting a series of webinars titled “Climate Change: Mastering the Public Health Role.” The series focuses on effectively communicat- ing the health-related aspects of climate change, promoting workforce development, and ensuring capacity building at local levels, all core areas of fo- Principal Areas of Focus cus within the CDC Climate Change Program. CDC also designed and disseminates the Extreme Heat Like several other USGCRP agencies, the Depart- Media Toolkit—a suite of communications materials ment of the Interior (DOI) is both a natural resource including websites, public service announcements, management agency and a science agency. DOI global heat alerts, press releases, and other downloadable/ change research is conducted mainly though the U.S. customizable materials aimed at supplementing Geological Survey (USGS), but several other DOI existing emergency management plans through bet- bureaus are contributing to the goals of the USGCRP ter targeting of vulnerable populations and reducing strategic plan through activities such as monitoring, deaths during excessive heat events. impact assessments, and adaptation planning.

National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. Evolving from an organization that was created NIEHS has engaged in a variety of communica- to inventory the Nation’s public lands and natural tions and education activities on the topic of climate resources, the mission of the 21st-century USGS is change and health aimed at diverse audiences. For most simply expressed in its maxim “Science for a researchers, public health professionals, and other Changing World.” Emphasis on global change, its relevant audiences, NIEHS supported and produced causes and effects, has increased substantially over two seminal documents in the last year: A Human the past five years as USGS scientists have worked in Health Perspective on Climate Change: A Report collaboration with other USGCRP agencies to meet Outlining the Research Needs on the Human Health the pressing needs of the DOI, policymakers, and Effects of Climate Change, and a series of studies resource managers for scientifically valid state-of-the-

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science information and predictive understanding of tion gathered from sediments, tree rings, ice cores, global change and its effects. and fossil pollen records—provide insights into the length, intensity, and character of past climate trends USGS studies of the interactions among climate, and the causes and mechanisms of climate change Earth surface processes, and ecosystems across space (including abrupt changes in climate), and help to and time contribute directly to the strategic goals improve forecasts of the impacts of climate change and core competencies of the USGCRP. To answer and variability on landscapes, watersheds, ecosys- questions about how the world is changing, USGS is tems, and human communities. expanding its research and monitoring initiatives in the science of carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles; hy- National Satellite Land Remote Sensing Data Archive droclimatic and ecosystems effects of climate change; (USGS-LRSP).40 The Earth is changing in ways that and land cover and land use change. The USGS will are not fully understood. It is not possible to compre- continue studies of paleoclimate and past interac- hend the meaning of these changes without a clear tions of climate with landscapes and ecosystems, and consistent record of observable surface phenom- and apply the knowledge gained to understanding ena. In 1992, Congress directed DOI to establish a potential future states and processes. Expanded and permanent government archive containing satellite modernized USGS observing networks of land, water, remote-sensing data of the Earth’s land surface, and and biological resources will be crucial to rigorous to make these data easily accessible and readily avail- analyses of future responses to climate change. The able for study. Residing in the USGS Earth Resources USGS will provide robust predictive and empirical Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center near Sioux tools for managers to test adaptive strategies, reduce Falls, South Dakota, this collection of information is risk, and increase the potential for hydrologic and known legally as the National Satellite Land Remote ecological systems to be self-sustaining, resilient, or Sensing Data Archive (NSLRSDA). It is a comprehen- adaptable to climate change and related disturbances. sive, permanent, and impartial record of the planet’s land surface derived from more than 40 years of Many of the U.S. observations important for docu- satellite remote sensing. Only with satellites, which menting climate change are produced by operational can cover large areas of the globe at regular intervals, systems not reflected in the USGCRP Budget Cross- is it practical to quickly understand such develop- cut (see last section of this report). For example, DOI’s ments as deforestation, desertification, some kinds of streamgage system and the Water Census activity are environmental contamination, and natural hazards. key activities that provide objective data on climate- Comparisons of satellite images of a specific site from Earth system interaction and support adaptation different times can make these phenomena quite decisionmaking. clear. In addition to providing a record of change at the global scale, NSLRSDA permits scientists to study DOI Activities or Projects Related to the Six water, energy, and mineral resource problems; to help USGCRP Focus Areas protect environmental quality; and to contribute to prudent, orderly management and development of 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and our Nation’s natural resources. present climate variability and change 2. Improving our understanding of natural and Climate History and Past Environmental Change Research human forces of climate change Focus (USGS-GCP).39 The past is the key to the future. In order to understand future climate change and Carbon Cycle Science Research Focus (USGS-GCP). its impacts, USGS scientists in the Climate History Carbon cycle science at USGS includes a range of and Past Environmental Change Research Focus activities from assessments of geologic and biologic conduct research using the geologic record to extract carbon sequestration potential through basic and scientific information about changes in temperature, applied research into atmospheric, terrestrial, and hydrologic conditions, vegetation, and atmospheric oceanic carbon. The Global Change Research and greenhouse gas concentrations in Earth’s past, as a Development Carbon Cycle Science Research Focus way to constrain and test models used to forecast provides rigorous research data to support multiple future climate and climate effects. Climate history other carbon, resource and landscape monitoring, as- and paleoenvironmental data—including informa- sessment, and management activities. USGS scientists

39. USGS Global Change Programs 40. Land Remote Sensing Program

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in this focus conduct longitudinal studies of carbon directly into the next generation of climate effects cycling and carbon flux in ecosystems and the water models. cycle, carbon in lateral transport to coastal oceans, carbon paleohistory, isotopic research including Land Use and Land Cover Change Research Focus (USGS- Carbon-14, implications and consequences of ocean GCP). Land use and land cover change are both acidification and anoxia, carbon in urban settings, as drivers and consequences of climate change. Land well as carbon in soils, peat, permafrost, wetlands, cover change affects a broad range of socioeconomic, and biomass as a function of land use and land cover biologic, and hydrologic systems, with potential

change. Work includes studies of CO2, methane emis- feedbacks to the climate system and impacts on land sions and storage (terrestrial and oceanic), dissolved management practices, economic health and sustain- organic carbon, oceanic and lacustrine carbonates of ability, and social processes. The objectives of the both organic and inorganic sources, and other spe- Land Cover and Land Use Change Research Focus cies, and quantitative modeling and dynamic vegeta- are to (1) determine the amount, rates, and trends tion modeling. Research in this Focus is conducted of contemporary land use and land cover change across the landscape and includes collaborative by ecoregion for the period 1973 to 2000 for the 84 efforts at LTER sites and Ameriflux sites. Research in ecoregions that comprise the conterminous United this Focus is linked to the North American Carbon States; (2) document the regional driving forces and Program (NACP) and the Ocean Carbon Program consequences of change; and (3) synthesize indi- (OCP). vidual ecoregion results into a national assessment of land use and land cover change. Results from this 3. Improving our capability to model and research focus help to provide a basis for understand- predict future conditions and impacts ing the rates, patterns, and driving forces of past and present land use and land cover change for improved Hydrology and Hydrologic Consequences of Climate predictions of future changes, thereby supporting Change Research Focus (USGS-GCP). USGS scientists in decisionmaking for improved management of lands, the Hydrology and Hydrologic Consequences of Cli- resources, and ecosystem goods and services. mate Change Research Focus investigate and monitor the hydrological system, including glacier mass Effects of Climate Change on Terrestrial, Freshwater, balance, drought, snowpack, and water availability, and Marine Ecosystems (USGS-BRD).41 Civiliza- and conduct studies of the physical and biological tion depends on life-support services that natural processes—including the effect of atmospheric and ecosystems perform, including regulating climate, climatic variables—that control water, energy, and mitigating floods and drought, protecting shorelines biogeochemical fluxes over a range of temporal from erosion, purifying air and water, detoxifying and spatial scales. Included within this Focus is the and decomposing wastes, and pollinating crops and Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) natural vegetation. Healthy ecosystems provide habi- small watershed research program. WEBB’s long-term tat for diverse fish and wildlife communities. Studies data sets represent watersheds along a continuum conducted by USGS Terrestrial, Freshwater, and of annual precipitation and temperature. The vari- Marine Ecosystems scientists describe factors that ety of conditions (tropical, subtropical, temperate, control ecosystem structure, function, condition, and subalpine, alpine) provide a gradient in which to the provision of goods and services. This information study and contrast processes, such as weathering and is used to predict future changes in ecosystems and sediment transport, within and across watersheds. to describe the results of management alternatives. This focus has documented how water and solute Ecosystem science is thus used to restore degraded fluxes; nutrient, carbon, and mercury dynamics; landscapes and freshwater systems, sustain plants and weathering and sediment transport respond and animals, and find means to adapt management to natural and human-caused drivers, including to conditions of global change. climate, climate change, and atmospheric deposition. WEBB conducts integrated science that links issues of 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current water cycling and availability, carbon and inorganic and anticipated impacts of climate change solute movement and transformation, and effects on ecosystem services of a changing climate to elucidate Climate Effects Network (USGS-GCP). The vision for the the vital transfers of water, energy, solutes, and gases DOI Climate Effects Network (CEN) is to “provide within and across ecosystems. These results will feed 41. Biological Research Division

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Earth system information for understanding, track- pabilities in modeling current and projected physical ing, and forecasting the effects of climate change and biological change across extensive landscapes on ecosystems, natural resources, and society; and and aquatic systems with studies of ecosystem to empower and assess adaptation or mitigation and population processes. The new models will be responses to those changes in the most cost effective, applied to adaptive management of fish and wildlife timely, and scientifically-rigorous manner possible” faced with climate change. This will require strength- (DOI Climate Impacts Task Force, 2009). In the CEN ened population and ecosystem modeling capacities Pilot area in the Yukon River Basin, CEN conducts at the regional and local levels, better integration of continuous ecosystem response research and assess- remotely sensed and other existing data sets, stan- ment, integrates with wildlife and climate change ini- dardization of monitoring protocols in local applica- tiatives, and completes assessment products. In other tions, and a renewed focus on analytical support for areas, CEN is developing collaborations with NSF’s FWS and state and tribal resource managers. National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) to leverage the rapid increase in observational capability 5. Providing climate information and decision being initiated in 2011 by NEON in the USGS Central support tools Region. Decision and Support Science Applications (USGS-GCP). Impacts of Climate Change on Communities, Landscapes, USGS scientists work directly with resource manag- Ecosystems, and Organisms Research Focus (USGS-GCP). ers in the field and understand their needs. The USGS scientists in the Impacts of Climate Change Science Applications and Decision Support element of on Communities, Landscapes, Ecosystems, and the USGS Global Change program develops decision Organisms Research Focus conduct basic and ap- support tools that enable resource managers and plied research into the response of systems to climate policymakers to cope with and adapt to a changing change, and the feedbacks from those responses. climate. Collaboration with a number of universities Current areas of concentration include vulnerability including Cornell, Colorado State University, the and adaptation to climate change; assessing and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Montana narrowing uncertainties in population projections State University has been established and spans the for threatened species; understanding and forecast- fields of social science, natural resources, artificial ing responses of ecosystems, habitats, and migratory intelligence, statistics, and Earth sciences. Decision species to climate change and climate change effects support will be developed through new partnerships, such as warming, drying, or sea level rise; thresholds enhancement of existing collaborations, and in train- and ecosystem sensitivity to climate change; effects ing the next generation of applications scientists. The of climate change on the structure and function of emphasis is to bring scientists and natural resource ecosystems; modeling and simulations of potential managers together to plan, develop, use, and evaluate future habitats under IPCC future climate scenarios; decision support programs. This spans everything and hydrologic assessment of coastal vulnerability from web sites to hands-on extension programs, from and sea level rise impacts on natural resources. The computerized tools to public workshops. Providing data, process-response, and feedback information, application support to DOI’s Landscape Conservation and modeling outcomes that result from these stud- Cooperatives is particularly important. ies, provide science-based inputs to land and resource managers and other decisionmakers. National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (USGS-GCP). The Earth’s climate, including changes Support for Fish and Wildlife Service Climate Change in temperature, weather patterns, and precipitation, Activities (USGS-BRD). The USGS will provide is expected to have significant effects on the Nation’s ecological and population modeling capacity to Fish fish and wildlife resources now and in the future. and Wildlife Service (FWS) Landscape Conservation Relatively little scientific information exists to inform Cooperatives and information to FWS geospatial adaptation or management of fish and wildlife in specialists. These specialists will characterize the face of climate change. The USGS is meeting species-habitat interactions for Strategic Habitat this challenge through the new National Climate Conservation. This vital activity will help to merge Change and Wildlife Science Center. Climate change large-scale global change information with more local crosses jurisdictional boundaries and affects all Earth information that is relevant to resource managers. processes. The Center is therefore being designed The information will be used to integrate USGS ca- with input from Federal, state, and tribal science

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and management agencies; NGOs; academic institu- stored in vegetation, soils, and sediments. Biological tions; and others having an interest in conserving carbon storage is susceptible to disturbances like fire, America’s fish and wildlife resources. Mobilization of disease, and changes in climate and land use. Delib- existing assessment and monitoring capabilities, and erate biological sequestration can be accomplished coordination of interagency and inter-organizational through forest and soil conservation practices that efforts from across the country, is needed for timely enhance the storage of carbon (such as restoring or forecasting of responses at multiple spatial and establishing forests, wetlands, and grasslands) or

temporal scales. The National Climate Change and reduce CO2 emissions (such as reducing agricultural Wildlife Science Center provides our fish and wildlife tillage and managing wildfires strategically). Assess- partners with access to other USGS Global Change ment of biological carbon sequestration resources Science capabilities and products. requires quantifying the factors that control potential capacities of sequestration, and providing informa- DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (USGS-GCP and tion for use in complex resource management deci- other DOI bureaus). Under the direction of P. L. 110-161, sions and policies. USGS historical data sets provide the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science information to test and update time-dependent Center had begun establishing regional offices in models used to estimate potential future carbon close collaboration with Interior agencies and other sequestration and greenhouse gas fluxes. DOI’s land Federal, state, university, and non-governmental and resource management responsibilities provide partners. The Secretary broadened the scope of a practical context for applying information about the regional offices to encompass other climate- potential rates and capacities of carbon storage in change related impacts on departmental resources, ecosystems. and created DOI Climate Science Centers. In 2010, USGS worked with other DOI bureaus to establish Geological Carbon Sequestration Assessment (USGS- Regional Climate Science Centers. These centers will GCP). In 2009, in accordance with the Energy Inde- synthesize and integrate climate change impact data pendence and Security Act of 2007, USGS developed and develop tools that DOI’s managers and partners a methodology to assess the Nation’s resources for can use when managing DOI’s land, water, fish and geologic carbon sequestration in oil and gas reser- wildlife, and cultural heritage resources. The Secre- voirs and saline formations. This methodology is tarial Order recognized that, because of the broad designed to estimate storage resource potential that impacts of climate change, management responses can be applied uniformly to geologic formations must be coordinated at a landscape scale. Because across the United States. The resource assessed is the

of the unprecedented scope of affected landscapes, volume of pore space into which CO2 can be injected the Executive Order directs Interior bureaus to work and retained. The methodology uses probabilistic together, with other Federal, state, tribal, and lo- methods to incorporate uncertainty and natural cal governments, including private landowners, to variability in volumetric parameters. This assessment develop landscape-level strategies for understanding methodology focuses on the technically accessible and responding to climate change impacts. The De- resource, not a total in-place resource volume. This partment began to establish a network of Landscape is a resource that may be available using present day Conservation Cooperatives to work cooperatively geological and engineering knowledge and technol-

with the DOI Regional Climate Science Centers to ogy for CO2injection into geologic formations. This coordinate natural resource adaption efforts across methodology was published and made available for the Nation. comment by the public and an independent review panel was convened of individuals with expertise Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment (USGS-GCP). in these issues.43 Application of the new geological USGS is leading a DOI process to develop a method- sequestration assessment methodology to evaluate ology for a National Assessment of Biological Carbon the Nation’s potential resources for geological stor- Sequestration Resources. This activity, authorized by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, 43. Burruss, R.C., S.T. Brennan, P.A. Freeman, M.D. was initiated in 2009. The assessment methodology Merrill, L.F. Ruppert, M.F. Becker, W.N. Herkelrath, Y.K. Kharaka, C.E. Neuzil, S.M. Swanson, T.A. Cook, T.R. Klett, was completed in 2010.42 Biological carbon sequestra- P.H. Nelson, and C.J. Schenk, 2009: Development of a tion refers to both natural and deliberate processes Probabilistic Assessment Methodology for Evaluation of by which CO2 is removed from the atmosphere and Carbon Dioxide Storage. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2009–1035, 81 p., available only online at pubs.usgs. 42. See pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5233/ gov/of/2009/1035/

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age began in 2010 after revision of the methodology Interactions of Native and Nonnative Salmonids, following the external review. Climate Forcing of Volcanic and Earthquake Hazards, Methane Hydrates and Global Climate Change, and Chesapeake Bay Executive Order—Treasured Landscapes Simulating Interactive Responses of Stream Flow and Initiative (USGS-GCP). The USGS is working with Temperature Distributions to Climate Change. Federal agencies (NOAA, EPA, FWS, the National Park Service (NPS), and USACE) to address the high- Department of State est priorities of the Chesapeake Bay Executive Order, with a focus on addressing the impacts of climate change and providing science to improve decision- making. As described in the 9 November 2009 Draft Strategy, USGS and NOAA will increase efforts to provide science to and engage state, local, and private partners in a collective effort to improve water qual- ity; conserve and restore habitats, fish, and wildlife; and plan for climate change in the Chesapeake Bay and watershed. For FY 2011, the President’s budget Principal Areas of Focus calls for USGS, working with NOAA and other Fed- eral partners, to build on their current activities as Through Department of State (DOS) annual fund- described in the President’s Executive Order Strategy, ing, the United States is the world’s leading financial released 12 May 2010. contributor to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to 6. Climate Change Communication and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Education (IPCC)—the principal international organization for the assessment of scientific, technical, and socioeco- Earth Science Education. USGS provides scientific nomic information relevant to the understanding of information intended to help educate the public about climate change, its potential impacts, and options for natural resources, natural hazards, land use change, adaptation and mitigation. Recent DOS contributions climate change, and issues that affect our quality of to these organizations provide substantial support for life. Online resources are also provided, including global climate observation and assessment activities lessons, data, maps, and more, to support teach- in developing countries. DOS also works with other ing, learning, education (K-12), and university-level agencies in promoting international cooperation in inquiry and research. USGS Educational Resources a range of bilateral and multilateral climate change for Secondary Grades Middle School and High School initiatives and partnerships.44 are designed to assist educators in secondary school grades (Grade 7 to Grade 12). Many of these resources Program Highlights for FY 2011 address climate change and variability and can be used either directly in the classroom or as resources During FY 2011, DOS will continue to support the for teacher education and curriculum development. activities of the UNFCCC and the IPCC, and will ad- vance and develop international climate and related Mendenhall Research Fellowship Program. The USGS energy partnerships. Mendenhall Research Fellowship Program provides an opportunity for postdoctoral fellows to conduct concentrated research in association with selected members of the USGS professional staff, often as a final element to their formal career preparation. Roughly one-third of 73 Mendenhall research op- portunities advertised for FY 2011 relate to climate change. The number of postdoctoral fellows hired depends on funding available; the expected range is 12 to 20 each year. Examples of topics advertised for Mendenhall fellowships in FY 2011 include: 44. The DOS is an active supporter of the USGCRP. However, Forecasting the Effects of Climate Change on the there are no DOS activities included in the budget crosscut and therefore, DOS does not appear in the budget tables.

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Department of Transportation port Canada in the Partnership for Air Transportation Noise and Emissions Reduction (PARTNER) Center of Excellence, which fosters advances in alternative fuels, emissions, noise, operations, aircraft technolo- gies, and science and decisionmaking for the better- ment of mobility, economy, national security, and the environment.

FAA has a number of ongoing operational initiatives to reduce fuel consumption and thus the amount Principal Areas of Focus of greenhouse gas emissions produced by aviation, including improved air traffic management, reduced The Department of Transportation (DOT) conducts vertical separation minimums, and the voluntary research and uses existing science to improve deci- airport low-emissions program that assists in deploy- sionmaking tools to address climate change. DOT ing low-emissions technology to airport operations. supports research that 1) examines the potential Additionally, FAA participates to a significant extent impacts of climate variability and change on trans- in the work program of the International Civil Avia- portation infrastructure and services; 2) examines in- tion Organization’s Committee on Aviation Environ- creasing energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse mental Protection, and provides technical expertise gases; and 3) improves transportation greenhouse gas and data to the IPCC and the UNFCCC in support data and modeling. DOT has many programs that of the overall DOT mission on international climate have either direct or indirect climate benefits, and is change work. working to develop cross-modal strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Other Departmental initiatives also address climate change and improve the overall sustainability of the DOT’s Center for Climate Change is the Department’s U.S. transportation sector but are not specifically focal point for information and technical expertise part of the USGCRP budget crosscut for DOT. These on climate change. The Center coordinates research, include: policies, and actions related to transportation and climate change with DOT’s component organizations. The FAA, with support from NASA, has developed The Center promotes comprehensive approaches to the continuous lower energy, emissions, and noise reduce greenhouse gases, to prepare for the potential (CLEEN) program as a government-industry con- impacts of climate change, and to develop necessary sortium to develop and mature environmentally adaptations to transportation operations and infra- promising technologies for more efficient energy use, structure. The Center supports the USGCRP focus reductions in aircraft noise and emissions, and ad- areas through these objectives. vancing alternative fuels for civil subsonic jet aircraft. Similarly, the Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) partici- Initiative (CAAFI) is a forum that engages national pates in the Center and also has programs to identify and international stakeholders and coordinates their and assess and identify potential measures to reduce activities to advance exploration, qualification, certifi- fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. cation, and deployment of alternative aviation fuels. FAA conducts research to support USGCRP Focus Area 2: leveraging research with other U.S. govern- DOT is developing models to predict future condi- ment agencies to reduce uncertainties surrounding tions and impacts of climate on the Nation’s transpor- aviation emissions and their effect on climate change. tation system. The Federal Highway Administration More specifically, FAA works with NASA, NOAA, (FHWA) is leading the development of strategies for and EPA in the Aviation Climate Change Research risk and vulnerability assessments as well as provid- Initiative (ACCRI), which is a practical-need driven ing climate information on the regional impacts of research program with an objective to identify and climate change in order to assist the transportation address key scientific gaps and uncertainties regard- community in making decisions. FHWA, in collabo- ing aviation climate impacts while providing timely ration with other agencies, provides climate change scientific input to inform optimum mitigation actions information to the transportation community. An and policies. FAA also works with NASA and Trans- example is the May 2010 FHWA publication, Regional

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Climate Change Effects: Useful Information for measurement; and to develop a global inventory of Transportation Agencies. In addition, FHWA is in the aircraft emissions. process of developing official risk and vulnerability assessment tools for transportation professionals. 3. Improving our capability to model and predict future conditions and impacts Through the National Highway Traffic Safety Ad- ministration (NHTSA), DOT is improving the fuel 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current economy of the nation’s on-road vehicles, including and anticipated impacts of climate change a recent joint rulemaking with EPA to establish fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission standards for model years 2012 to 2016. Transit Investments for 5. Providing climate information and decision Greenhouse Gas and Energy Reduction (TIGGER) is support tools a grant program from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 that is awarding $100 mil- Support for DOT Climate Center’s Study, the Impacts of lion in funding to transit agencies that reduce energy Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems consumption and/or greenhouse gas emissions. and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase 2 (FHWA- HEP).45 The Gulf Coast Study—Phase 2, building on DOT is working with EPA and the U.S. Department of Phase 1, will develop more definitive information Housing and Urban Development in the Partnership about impacts at a particular local level, analyze the for Sustainable Communities to ensure that housing key transportation links, and develop more precise and transportation goals are met while simultaneous- tools and guides for state DOT and Metropolitan ly protecting the environment, promoting equitable Planning Organization planners to use in adapting development, and helping to address the challenges to potential climate impacts and determining vul- of climate change. nerability for key links for each mode. Phase 2 will develop a risk assessment tool to allow decisionmak- The Center for Climate Change leverages resources ers to understand vulnerability to climate change and by building strategic partnerships and reaches out develop a process to implement transportation facil- to state and local agencies, environmental advocates, ity improvements in a systematic manner. Estimated industry, and academia. This ranges from simple completion time is three years. Phase 1, completed in information exchange to ongoing partnerships in ma- 2008, studied how changes in climate over the next jor research initiatives and conferences. The Center 50 to 100 years could affect transportation systems builds DOT capacity and awareness by conducting in the U.S. central Gulf Coast region and the need to educational forums and establishing a clearinghouse address potential impacts in transportation planning. for research and policy coordination related to transportation and climate change. Transportation’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (DOT). This April 2010 report to Congress DOT Activities or Projects Related to the Six on transportation and climate change meets require- USGCRP Focus Areas ments of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and helps inform the debate on surface trans- 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and portation reauthorization and climate change legisla- present climate variability and change tion. The report examines greenhouse gas emission levels and trends from the transportation sector and analyzes the full range of strategies available 2. Improving our understanding of natural and to reduce these emissions. These strategies include human forces of climate change introducing low-carbon fuels, increasing vehicle fuel economy, improving transportation system efficiency, ACCRI and PARTNER climate change research activi- and reducing carbon-intensive travel activity. The ties (FAA-OEE). The objective of these activities is to report also provides an analysis of policy options for better quantify the influence of aviation emissions implementing the strategies. on climate change; to reduce uncertainties in our understanding of aviation climate impacts through model simulations, data analysis, and laboratory

45. FHWA Office of Planning, Environment, and Realty

56 57 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011 6. Climate Change Communication and 3. Improving our capability to model and Education predict future conditions and impacts

Agency for International Famine Early Warning System Network (DCHA).46 In Development general, the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) uses existing global and local weather, climate, agriculture, and food security early warn- ing data to identify, monitor, and predict specific regional, national, and sub-national (“local”) climate change impacts in food insecure countries, and then assesses how local food security conditions may be affected by them, and identifies the type of general adaptation strategies that may be most appropriate to mitigate or avoid negative food security outcomes. Principal Areas of Focus FEWS NET also uses global historical climate and ag- ricultural observations, augmented by dense national The U.S. Agency for International Development climate records from food insecure countries. From (USAID) supports a number of programs that en- this, it detects recent, and predicts near- to medium- able decisionmakers to apply high-quality climate term, impacts of climate change in specific local food information to decisionmaking. USAID is the lead insecure environments. Using this same data, FEWS contributor to bilateral assistance, with a focus on NET also attempts to identify significant regional capacity building, civil society building, governance (e.g., East Africa) drivers of decadal climate variabil- programming, and creating the legal and regulatory ity, evaluate their recent and near- to medium-term environments needed to address climate change. trends, and evaluate their likely future impacts on USAID leverages its significant technical expertise to local climate. provide leadership in development and implementa- tion of low-emissions development strategies, creat- 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current ing policy frameworks for market-based approaches and anticipated impacts of climate change to emission reduction and energy sector reform, promoting sustainable management of agricultural 5. Providing climate information and decision lands and forests, and mainstreaming adaptation support tools into development activities in countries most at risk. USAID has long-standing relationships with host country governments that enable it to work together SERVIR (EGAT).47 USAID and NASA partner to sup- with these countries to develop shared priorities and port the Sistema Regional de Visualización y Moni- implementation plans. USAID’s engagement and toreo (SERVIR), an Earth observation, monitoring, expertise in agriculture, biodiversity, health, and and visualization system that integrates satellite and other critical climate-sensitive sectors provide an other geospatial data for improved scientific knowl- opportunity to implement innovative cross-sectoral edge and decisionmaking by managers, research- climate change programs. Finally, USAID bilateral ers, students, and the general public in developing programs work in key political and governance areas countries. These systems utilize multiple information that multilateral agencies cannot. streams to fill a number of data and capability gaps that limit developing country capabilities to deal with USAID Activities or Projects Related to the changing climate. Six USGCRP Focus Areas 6. Climate Change Communication and 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and Education present climate variability and change

2. Improving our understanding of natural and human forces of climate change 46. Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance 47. Economic Growth, Agriculture, and Trade

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION committed to the support of USGCRP’s research and AGENCY assessment activities. This commitment includes assessments uniquely focused on EPA’s mission and statutory requirements (e.g., assessments of the impacts of global change on air and water quality) and support to the USGCRP to produce periodic as- sessments of the potential impacts of climate change for Congress.

EPA’s program has two major areas of emphasis: air quality and water quality. Within these two areas, Principal Areas of Focus the program evaluates the consequences for human health and ecosystems due to the changes in air The core purpose of the Global Change Research quality and water quality likely to result from global Program in the U.S. Environmental Protection change. Agency (EPA) Office of Research and Development is to provide scientific information to stakeholders and EPA Activities or Projects Related to the Six policymakers to support them as they decide whether USGCRP Focus Areas and how to respond to the risks and opportunities presented by global change. The program is stake- 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and holder-oriented, with primary emphasis on assessing present climate variability and change the potential consequences of global change (particu- larly climate variability and change) on air quality, water quality, aquatic ecosystems, and human health 2. Improving our understanding of natural and in the United States. EPA’s mission and statutory and human forces of climate change programmatic requirements drive the program’s focus on these four areas. EPA uses the results of 3. Improving our capability to model and these studies to investigate adaptation options to predict future conditions and impacts improve society’s ability to effectively respond to the risks and opportunities presented by global change, 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current and to develop decision support tools for resource and anticipated impacts of climate change managers coping with a changing climate. EPA has also invested in decision support tools to help deci- Climate Change and Air Quality, Water Quality, and sionmakers evaluate alternative strategies for reduc- USGCRP Assessments (EPA-ORD).48 This activity’s ing greenhouse gas emissions and the environmental research is focused on understanding and assessing implications of those strategies. the effects of global change on air quality, water quality, aquatic ecosystems, human health, and social The program uses a place-based approach because well being in the United States. The Agency strives the impacts of global change and their solutions are to produce timely and useful information, decision often unique to a location (e.g., a watershed). Partner- support tools, and adaptation strategies that will ships are established with locally based decisionmak- enable resource managers, policymakers, and other ers to ensure that the program is responsive to their stakeholders to account for global change when mak- unique scientific information needs and the socioeco- ing decisions. nomic realities at their locales. 5. Providing climate information and decision Planning and implementation of EPA’s program is support tools integrated with other participating Federal depart- ments and agencies to reduce overlaps, identify and Environmental Assessment of Mitigation Technologies fill programmatic gaps, and add value to products (EPA- ORD). This activity focuses on the develop- and deliverables produced under the USGCRP’s aus- ment of decision support tools to help decisionmak- pices. EPA coordinates with other USGCRP agencies ers evaluate alternative strategies for reducing to develop and provide timely, useful, and scientifi- greenhouse gas emissions to better quantify the cally sound information to decisionmakers. EPA is 48. Office of Research and Development

58 59 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

associated environmental implications (and potential ellite (ACRIMSAT), Aqua, Aura, the Cloud-Aerosol co-benefits). Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), the Cloud Satellite (CloudSat), the Earth 6. Climate Change Communication and Observer (EO), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Education Experiment (GRACE), Jason, Landsat-7, the Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM), the Solar Ra- EPA has multiple activities underway to inform and diation and Climate Experiment (SORCE), Terra, and educate the public about climate change, its current the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). On and future impacts, the efforts underway to address 24 February 2009, NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observa- the problem, and what individuals can do to help. tory (OCO) satellite did not reach orbit altitude when These efforts include the development of a new the launch vehicle malfunctioned. On 11 October climate change web portal and new educational ma- 2009 and 23 November 2009, respectively, the Ice, terials on climate change for middle school students; Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and development of informational materials for a range of Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellites ceased audiences; outreach to EPA stakeholders at the state their primary geophysical missions after many years and local levels; and development of data systems of extended service. to ensure public access to greenhouse gas emissions data reported under the Agency’s recently finalized NASA has seven missions in development for launch greenhouse gas reporting rule. Support of these between 2010 and 2015. Five missions (Aquarius, communications and education activities is provided Glory, the National Polar-orbiting Operational En- through other focus areas. vironmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP), the Landsat Data Continuity Mission NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE (LDCM), and Global Precipitation Measurement ADMINISTRATION (GPM)) are foundational missions, which the Decadal Survey49 assumed would be precursors to Decadal Survey missions. Two missions, Soil Moisture Active- Passive (SMAP) and ICESat-2, are Tier 1 Decadal Survey missions. The Decadal Survey is the principal determinant of the priorities of NASA’s Earth Science satellite missions beyond those currently in develop- ment.50

The President’s FY 2011 Budget Request will greatly Principal Areas of Focus accelerate NASA’s formulation, development, and launch of all 15 Decadal Survey missions, all of which The National Aeronautics and Space Administra- are relevant to research on global climate change. tion (NASA) conducts a program of breakthrough Launch readiness dates of the remaining Tier 1 research to advance fundamental knowledge on the Decadal Survey missions, the Climate Absolute Radi- most important scientific questions about the global ance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) and and regional integrated Earth system. NASA Earth Deformation, Ecosystem Structure and Dynamics of Science conducts and sponsors research, collects new Ice (DESDynI), were moved up to 2017. The augmen- observations from space, develops technologies, and tation makes possible a larger number of Decadal extends science and technology education to learners Survey missions in the coming decade. For example, of all ages. NASA’s goal is to understand the chang- the budget enhancement advances the average launch ing climate, its interaction with life, and how human date of each Tier 1 mission, two Tier 2 missions activities affect the environment. In association with (Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, national and international agencies, NASA applies and Seasons (ASCENDS) and Surface Water Ocean this understanding for the well-being of society. Topography (SWOT)), and a Venture-class satellite The NASA program encompasses most of the core mission by about 30 months. competency areas of the USGCRP. 49. National Research Council, 2007: Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the NASA presently has 13 on-orbit satellite missions: the Next Decade and Beyond. National Academies Press, Activity Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor SAT- Washington, DC, 428 pp. 50. Ibid. 60 61 OUR CHANGING PLANET

The President’s FY 2011 Budget Request recognizes NASA aircraft- and surface-based instruments are the need for continuity in climate observations and used to calibrate and enhance interpretation of high- data records, and continues funding to develop an accuracy, climate-quality, stable satellite measure-

Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) mission to ments. NASA supports state-of-the-art computing measure atmospheric CO2 to replace the mission that capability and capacity for extensive global integrated failed to reach orbit in 2009, with a target launch date Earth system modeling. NASA, in recording approxi- of early 2013. NASA will also begin development mately four terabytes of data every day, maintains the of a GRACE-Continuity mission working toward a world’s largest scientific data and information system launch in 2016; refurbish a SAGE-III (Stratospheric for collecting, processing, archiving, and distributing Aerosol and Gas Experiment) instrument to measure Earth system data to worldwide users. aerosols, ozone, water vapor, and other trace gases in the upper troposphere and stratosphere as early as NASA Activities or Projects Related to the Six 2014; and develop a Pre-ACE (Aerosol-Cloud-Ecology) USGCRP Focus Areas mission to measure ocean color, clouds and aerosols as early as 2018. NASA has made significant progress in FY 2010 and will continue this progress in FY 2011 in nearly all The Decadal Survey recommended creation of a core competency areas of the U.S. Global Change Venture class program of small, frequent, predict- Research Program. ably scheduled science mission opportunities to spur innovation and enable the training of future 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and Earth science leaders. In 2009, NASA released the present climate variability and change Earth Venture-1 (EV-1) call for extended airborne science observing campaigns. Selections of five EV-1 Earth Systematic Missions. These missions are the main airborne investigations were announced in May component of NASA’s flight program, which encom- 2010, with field campaigns to run from 2011 through passes operating missions and missions in develop- 2015. The selected EV-1 missions will investigate ment. Ten of NASA’s thirteen major satellite missions soil moisture in major ecosystems as it relates to the that comprise today’s fleet of NASA Earth observing

uptake or emission of carbonaceous gases (e.g., CO2 satellites, providing comprehensive observations and methane); the exchange of water vapor and other of the Earth system, come from this program (the chemical constituents between the stratosphere and remaining three come from the Earth System Science troposphere along with cirrus cloud properties and Pathfinder Mission program described in the next chemical processes with a variety of instruments on paragraph). Five additional foundational missions are NASA’s Global Hawk unmanned aerial system (UAS) in various stages of formulation through assembly in widely separated areas in the tropical Pacific; the and testing, and constitute the bridge between the

emission of CO2, methane, and other gases from Arc- Earth Observing System and the Decadal Survey tic permafrost with a variety of instruments deployed missions to follow. These foundational missions and on aircraft and the ground; the air quality impact of the four Tier-1 systematic missions (SMAP, ICESAT-2, aerosols, ozone, and other gases over a number of DESDynI, and CLARREO-1) were recommended by major North American urban areas utilizing NASA’s the National Academy of Sciences for NASA launch B-200 and P-3B aircraft to improve the use of satellite during 2010 to 2020 as an integrated slate of missions. remote sensing in air quality assessment and fore- A number of the satellite missions play an important casting; and tropical storm development with instru- role in documenting the forcings of climate change ments deployed on two NASA Global Hawk UASs (solar irradiance, land cover, aerosol distributions) that can remain aloft for up to 30 hours. NASA plans addressed under focus area 2 below. to release the first call for a complete space flight mis- sion, EV-2, in 2011, with selections to be made in 2012. Earth System Science Pathfinder Missions. This is the The solicitations for suborbital and orbital missions component of the flight program that implements will continue in alternate years. The President’s FY low- to moderate-cost missions, fostering innova- 2011 Budget Request provides funding for an annual tion. It includes the three operating ESSP missions solicitation to develop satellite instruments for a mis- (GRACE, CALIPSO, and CloudSat) and the new sion of opportunity. Venture class program recommended in the Decadal Survey, including suborbital and orbital missions as well as instruments for missions of opportunity.

60 61 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

2. Improving our understanding of natural and through partnerships with organizations that have human forces of climate change established connections to users and decisionmakers. Projects promote the use of research results and their Earth Science Research. NASA’s Research Program transition to public and private organizations, and supports multi-disciplinary and interdisciplinary integration of Earth science in organizations’ deci- research to provide improved understanding of the sionmaking and services. Earth system, its components, their interactions, and the evolution of these interactions. The program 6. Climate Change Communication and also funds field campaigns conducted with aircraft Education and balloon-based platforms, which are used to test new measurement approaches and collect detailed Earth Science Education and Outreach Activity - Fellow- in situ and remote-sensing observations for process ships and New Investigators. NASA funds activities studies and calibration/validation of satellite observa- through open competition that target workforce tions. Research is solicited annually through NASA’s enrichment by focusing on scientists and engineers. Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences The Earth Science Fellowship program supports the (ROSES) call, which invites proposals in numerous training of graduate students in Earth System science areas from academia, NASA Centers, other U.S. gov- and/or remote sensing. The New Investigator pro- ernment agencies, the private sector, and non-profit gram funds activities aimed to integrate Earth System organizations. research and education by scientists and engineers at the early stage of their professional career, with 3. Improving our capability to model and particular emphasis on the investigators’ ability to predict future conditions and impacts promote and increase the use of space-based remote sensing through the proposed research and educa- Global Modeling and Assimilation. NASA funds devel- tion projects. NASA also provides the major support opment and utilization of comprehensive, interactive for the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit Earth System models, as well as data assimilation the Environment (GLOBE), which provides students systems built upon those models. A particular focus around the world the opportunity to make hands- is the enhanced use of NASA space-based data for on measurements of Earth system parameters and weather and climate prediction, to support national to have their data archived and shared as part of a multi-model ensemble predictions and assessments. global community of learners.

Scientific Computing. NASA recognizes the need for NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION maintaining high-end computing, networking, and storage capabilities, which are required to convert satellite observations to science data products and are made available to a wide range of users, includ- ing modeling and reanalysis. Computing resources are provided upon request to proposers responding to research solicitations. In addition, NASA funds computational science research and development ac- tivities, including software development to improve Earth system modeling and data assimilation. Principal Areas of Focus

4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current National Science Foundation (NSF) programs ad- and anticipated impacts of climate change dress global change issues through investments that advance frontiers of knowledge and provide 5. Providing climate information and decision state-of-the-art instrumentation and facilities while also cultivating a diverse highly trained workforce support tools and developing resources for public education. In Applied Science – Pathways. The Applied Science Pro- particular, NSF global change research programs gram funds activities targeting the discovery, demon- support research and related activities to advance the stration of innovative uses, and practical benefits of fundamental understanding of physical, chemical, NASA research and observations. It primarily works biological, and human systems and the interactions

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among them. The programs encourage interdisci- Foci include effects of physical forcing, carbon fluxes plinary activities and focus particularly on Earth and links to other biogeochemical cycles, biological system processes and the consequences of change for and chemical-biological interactions in terrestrial organisms and ecosystems and the essential services and oceanic regimes, and the atmospheric processes they provide to society. NSF programs facilitate data that couple these. Support is also provided for basic acquisition and information management activities research in greenhouse gas processes relevant to necessary for fundamental research on global change, regional and global climate change as well as into the and promote the enhancement of models designed factors controlling regional and global transport and to improve understanding of Earth system processes transformation of atmospheric constituents. and feedbacks that link ecosystems to global climate systems, and develop advanced analytic methods to 3. Improving our capability to model and facilitate basic research. NSF also supports funda- predict future conditions and impacts mental research on the processes used by organiza- tions to identify and evaluate policies for mitigation, Climate System Feedback Processes Responding to Natural adaptation, and other responses to the challenge and Human-induced Forcing (NSF-BIO, GEO, MPS, SBE, of varying environmental conditions. Through its and OPP).56 NSF supports basic research to examine investment, NSF contributes to the overall USGCRP major feedback processes related to the response of focus areas identified earlier in this annual report. the climate system to natural and human-induced forcing, and to activities leading to the development NSF Activities or Projects Related to the Six and application of the next generation Community USGCRP Focus Areas Climate System Model through the addition of more complete representations of coupled interactive atmo- 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and spheric chemistry, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, biogeochemical cycling, and middle atmospheric present climate variability and change processes. Support is also provided for basic research Long-term Climate Cycle Studies (NSF-BIO, GEO, MPS, to examine major feedback processes related to the and OPP).51,52,53,54 NSF investments include activities response of the climate system to natural and human- to understand long-term climate cycles across vary- induced forcing and feedbacks of the ocean and ing latitudes using a range of paleoclimate and in- terrestrial ecosystems on climate systems by way of strumental data and modeling approaches as well as biogeochemical processes. Foci include controls on increasing confidence in our understanding of how the balance of nitrogen fixation and denitrification in and why climate has changed through support of the world’s oceans and the dynamics of feedbacks be- basic research that documents past climate changes tween ocean and terrestrial ecosystem biogeochemis-

and the processes responsible for those changes. NSF try as mediated by changes in atmospheric CO2. also supports activities to improve our understanding of climate extremes and modulations in the past and 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current how those may manifest in the future. and anticipated impacts of climate change

2. Improving our understanding of natural and Population Response to Natural and Anthropogenic human forces of climate change Changes in Global Climate (NSF-BIO, GEO, SBE, and OPP). NSF supports fundamental research on how Fundamental Research on all Aspects of the Carbon Cycle populations respond to natural and anthropogenic (NSF-BIO, ENG, GEO, MPS, and OPP).55 NSF activities changes in global climate. This includes determining in this area are primarily centered on supporting the processes that control circulation and transport fundamental research on all aspects of the carbon of biological, chemical, and geological materials that cycle, including the current status of fluxes and the drive population dynamics of the target organisms; probable responses of the biota and ecosystems to developing conceptual and quantitative models of anthropogenic changes in global cycles and climate. ecosystem dynamics and responses at a broad range of space and time scales; and determining the effects of climate variability and climate change on the 51. Directorate for Biological Sciences 52. Directorate for Geosciences distribution, abundance, and production of the target 53. Directorate for Mathematical and Physical Sciences organisms. NSF-supported researchers will continue 54. Office of Polar Programs 55. Directorate for Engineering 56. Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences

62 63 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

to develop integrated river basin models to address (STRI). Research is organized around themes of water management issues related to stream flow, atmospheric processes, ecosystem dynamics, observ- such as endangered species, agricultural needs, and ing natural and anthropogenic environmental change trans-boundary requirements, and will support basic on daily to decadal time scales, and defining longer research on the interactions between ecosystems and term climate proxies present in the historical artifacts human infrastructure over extended periods. and records of the museums as well as in the geologic record at field sites. The Smithsonian Institution 5. Providing climate information and decision program strives to improve knowledge of the natu- support tools ral processes involved in global climate change, to provide a long-term repository of climate-relevant Tools for Stakeholders to Improve Decision Making Under research materials for present and future studies, and Uncertainty Associated with Climate Change (NSF-BIO, to bring this knowledge to various audiences, ranging GEO, and SBE). NSF supports basic research on the from scholarly to the lay public. The unique contribu- processes through which humans affect climate and tion of the Smithsonian Institution is a long-term other natural systems, through which people respond perspective—for example, undertaking investigations to changing natural conditions, and through which that may require extended study before produc- human and natural systems engage in complex ing useful results and conducting observations on interactions across multiple spatial, temporal, and sufficiently long (e.g., decadal) time scales to resolve organizational scales. Support will continue for human-caused modification of natural variability. basic research on decisionmaking under uncertainty associated with climate change and to develop SI Activities or Projects Related to the Six and test decision support tools that can be used by USGCRP Focus Areas stakeholders to improve decisionmaking in the face of uncertainty. 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and present climate variability and change 6. Climate Change Communication and Education Forest dynamics, carbon, and biodiversity (STRI-SIGEO). All NSF projects involve a “broader impacts” com- Multiple Smithsonian science units collaborate in the ponent, which is directed at student training, public Smithsonian Institution Global Earth Observatory outreach, and other forms of communication and (SIGEO) global network of forest plots headquartered education. The support is counted under the other at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Center. This focus areas. network provides a globally unique data set on forest growth, forest carbon sequestration, and ecological SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION dynamics. It provides long-term scientific data about biodiversity and ecological, hydrological, soil, and meteorological processes associated with climate change at local spatial scales and comparatively at regional and global scales. This research platform enables Smithsonian scientists and their university and Federal agency partners to better understand the storage and movement of carbon and water in tropical and temperate forests, as well as the impacts of climate change on the relationships of forests with Principal Areas of Focus wildlife, the atmosphere, and sources of fresh water. It provides an early warning system for changes in Within the Smithsonian Institution, global change key ecological signals ranging from the timing of research is primarily conducted at the National Air leafing, flowering, and fruiting to interactions with and Space Museum, the National Museum of Natural biological and ecological factors. This program works History (NMNH), the National Zoological Park, the around the world and has been a vital link in devel- Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO), the oping strong scientific and technological interactions Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC), in important tropical countries, while showing the and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute utility of science-based management. It leverages

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USGCRP investment by creating a platform where speed with which environmental changes are threat- partners, the USGCRP, and domestic and interna- ening fertile river deltas around the world. tional academic and other research institutions can build additional research components. Atmospheric research (SAO, SERC). Research at the SAO and the SERC examine specific responses of the Paleontological research (NMNH, STRI). Focused in the atmosphere and biosphere to solar activity, ultraviolet research of the NMNH and the Smithsonian Tropical radiation, and atmospheric composition. Using both Research Center, Smithsonian research on paleontol- remotely sensed data (including from instruments ogy, through analysis of our collections and in field designed by Smithsonian scientists) and in situ research, documents and interprets the history of measurements, these programs make observations of terrestrial and marine ecosystems from 400 million natural variability, human-induced greenhouse gas years ago to the present. Program scientists study the concentrations, and their impacts on climate and the impacts of historical environmental change on the organisms taking up and responding to atmospheric ecology and evolution of organisms, including hu- conditions. Specific research includes the impact of

mans. Archaeobiologists examine the impact of early increased CO2 on microalgae and phytoplankton humans resulting from their domestication of plants communities, which form a key base for carbon and animals, creating the initial human impacts on sequestration in the coastal and marine world. planetary ecosystems. USGCRP funding enables the Smithsonian to leverage private funds for additional 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current research and education programs. and anticipated impacts of climate change

2. Improving our understanding of natural and Biodiversity and ecosystem responses. Biological diversity human forces of climate change research at multiple Smithsonian locations measures the changes in species occurrence and distribution The Smithsonian has a very long history of work based on climate, land use change, and changes in with traditionally underserved communities (Native the chemistry of the oceans. Researchers use multiple Americans, Inuit) to understand how traditional methods, including geographic information system modes are impacted by changing culture, and now (GIS), DNA barcoding, and chemical markers, to by climate change. Researchers at the NMNH, the interpret the effects of changes in land/seascapes and National Museum of the American Indian, and the changes in animal and plant populations. Research- Smithsonian Center for Folklife and Cultural Heri- ers work with communities, such as in the Arctic tage work with communities to understand how they Studies program, to understand how these changes are striving to adapt to these changes. are affecting human populations. Such work gives us baselines for species responses and primary data for 3. Improving our capability to model and use in landscape and seascape planning. An organ- predict future conditions and impacts ism group of concern is migratory birds that have to adapt to changes in multiple landscapes throughout Geological processes research (GVP). Smithsonian their annual cycles of migration between their geological systems research examines the dynamics wintering and breeding locales. Smithsonian marine of key geological processes such as volcanism and research builds on the expertise at NMNH, SERC, subsidence. The Global Volcanism Program (GVP) is STRI, and the National Zoological Park; our network the hub of an international network for monitoring, of marine field stations; our history of integrated ma- reporting, and maintaining data related to volcanic rine research funded by our Marine Science Network; activity around the world. The GVP plays a leader- the world’s most extensive marine biological collec- ship role in global volcano information—tracking tions (NMNH); and our collaborations with NOAA, events as they happen, building the database of the US Coast Guard, the Census of Marine Life, and critical information, and using these resources both many public and private organizations throughout for our own forefront research projects and for the world. answering a multitude of questions on volcanology from other scientists, the media, and the public. One project is the Nile Delta Subsidence/Sea Level Rise—a long-term research effort involving 25 specialists from 13 international laboratories that assesses the

64 65 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011 5. Providing climate information and decision support tools Digitization of collection and research records. Scientific data on the occurrence of species, as well as their environmental context, and results from different research programs are made available through inter- net access and upon request to researchers around the world to uncover patterns in order to better understand environmental patterns and change and increase the ability to use the best and most unbiased scientific information. The Smithsonian is increasing its digitization of historic data that are not currently available in digital form (e.g., only stored in paper files or specimen labels), or are not currently available in formats that support community access. Attention is being given to digitization, quality control, and analysis of (a) species occurrence data for taxa that are used for climate change sensitivity and health analyses (amphibians, birds, butterflies, disease vectors, parasites) from museum specimens and field records; (b) long-term monitoring data, especially from Smithsonian-managed field stations; and (c) remote-sensing data that are not available from other sources.

6. Climate Change Communication and Education

Outreach and Education. Research by Smithsonian researchers and collaborators is the basis for the many educational programs at the many Smithsonian sites, on its websites, and in visits to communities around the United States and the world. Smithsonian researchers leverage the USGCRP seed funding to attract additional resources from public and private sources to build the renowned exhibitions, prepare publications, and sponsor events.

66 PB The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011 OUR CHANGING PLANET USGCRP BUDGET ANALYSIS BY FOCUS AREA VI AND AGENCY/DEPARTMENT

The following tables give a quantitative measure of the USGCRP budgets for FY 2009, FY 2010, and FY 2011, arranged by agency/department and the six USGCRP focus areas.

Definitions of the six USGCRP focus areas.

• Improve our knowledge of Earth’s past and present climate variability and change through remote and in situ observing and monitoring capabilities to ensure a long-term, high-quality and high-resolution record of the state of the Earth’s climate system, natural variability, and change, as well as activities that improve our understanding of natural long-term climate cycles.

• Improve our understanding of natural and human forces of climate change through funda- mental research focused on improving our understanding of the natural and human-induced forces of change as well as the interactions among the physical, chemical, geological, and biological components of the Earth system.

• Improve our capability to model and predict future conditions and impacts by enhancing the Nation’s predictive capability and infrastructure through enhanced scenarios and more accurate models and projections of future conditions at finer spatial scales and across a wider range of timescales (including both global circulation models and integrated assessment models).

• Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current and anticipated impacts of climate change through activities that contribute to assessing the environmental, economic, and societal vulnerability of human and natural systems to current and anticipated impacts of climate change.

• Provide climate information and decision support tools that improve the Nation’s ability to respond to climate change by providing climate information and decision support tools that are useful to policymakers and the general public.

• Develop or expand communication and education capabilities, training, and activities for students, educators, and the public to create a climate-literate society.

PB 67 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

Table 1. FY 2009-2011 U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget By Focus Area

FY09 FY10 FY11 Agencies/ USGCRP Focus Area Actual Enacted Proposed Departments Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past USDA, DOC, DOE, 1 1387.5 1093.2 1429.4 and present climate variability and change DOI, NASA, NSF, SI USDA, DOC, DOE, Improving our understanding of natural 2 513 488.6 548.8 DOI, DOT, NASA, and human forces of climate change NSF USDA, DOC, DOE, Improving our capability to model and 3 445.9 240.4 281 HHS, DOI, USAID, predict future conditions and impacts NASA, NSF, SI Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to USDA, DOC, DOE, 4 current and anticipated impacts of 171.4 190.4 234.8 DOI, EPA, NSF, SI climate change USDA, DOC, DOI, Providing climate information and 5 116.4 139.7 178.1 DOT, USAID, EPA, decision support tools NASA, NSF, SI Climate Change Communication USDA, DOC, 6 19.9 26.1 41.4 and Education NASA, SI USGCRP Total 2654.1 2178.4 2713.5

68 69 OUR CHANGING PLANET Table 2. FY 2009-2011 U.S. Global Change Research Program1 Budget by USGCRP Focus Area and Participating Agency/Department 41.4 26.1 19.9 548.8 281.0 234.8 178.1 488.6 240.4 190.4 139.7 513.0 445.9 171.4 116.4 1429.4 1093.2 1387.5 2654.1 2713.5 2178.4 TOTAL 995.0 727.7 866.8 866.8 995.0 727.7 Observations 41.4 26.1 19.9 434.4 548.8 281.0 234.8 178.1 365.5 488.6 240.4 190.4 139.7 520.7 513.0 445.9 171.4 116.4 1787.3 1718.5 1450.7 Research SI 6.1 0.0 0.9 2.2 1.5 0.3 4.1 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.3 3.1 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.3 6.0 7.0 11.0 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.7 73.3 82.7 17.3 67.1 67.2 73.6 97.6 13.5 89.7 90.4 99.7 97.5 12.5 NSF 120.9 389.8 369.9 319.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.5 36.6 17.2 20.6 32.0 14.8 36.8 47.8 16.5 995.0 361.3 727.7 324.5 866.8 345.0 NASA 1312.9 1434.6 1119.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 20.8 19.6 17.3 EPA 17.9 22.0 20.8 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 18.0 25.0 18.0 18.0 16.7 18.2 43.0 36.0 USAID 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 2.3 3.5 4.0 DOT 2.3 8.1 0.0 2.4 8.3 0.0 2.0 7.4 8.4 0.0 13.0 17.0 41.1 13.7 12.3 26.6 12.2 14.5 44.5 81.5 DOI 63.3 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 HHS 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 1.4 48.5 28.4 85.6 28.6 44.6 26.5 69.8 27.9 25.4 75.6 27.9 DOE 102.4 232.7 191.1 170.2 2.2 2.8 2.1 1.3 3.9 1.3 50.1 53.4 46.1 44.8 42.4 41.9 39.7 29.1 DOC 282.8 227.9 306.5 214.9 595.4 437.4 360.4 8.3 8.1 8.3 6.8 8.5 5.6 0.4 30.4 21.8 43.1 33.8 21.1 20.2 20.8 29.7 23.0 15.2 11.1 47.6 158.5 110.1 USDA Total 4 Focus Area 1 Focus Area 2 Focus Area 3 Focus Area 4 Focus Area 5 Focus Area 6 Focus Area 1 Focus Area 2 Focus Area 3 Focus Area 4 Focus Area 5 Focus Area 6 Focus Area 1 Focus Area 2 Focus Area 3 Focus Area 4 Focus Area 5 Focus Area 6 FY2011 Total FY2010 Total FY 2009 totals include ARRA enacted budget authority amounts for agencies/departments receiving these funds. FY2009 USAID funding supports USGCRP and the Climate Change International Assistance effort. In the past, some USAID funding was counted under both categories. USAID spending is now only reported under Subsequent to publication the of Federal Climate Change Expenditures FY Report, 2009 and Budget FY NASA’s 2010 Authority were changed due to a Congressionally-approved reprogramming. The FY 2011 All data supersede numbers released Federal in the 2011 Climate Change Expenditures Report. international assistance and does not add to the USGCRP total. Proposed Budget Authority was updated to include the augmentation to NASA climate for the FY 2011 change initiative. These changes total. budget then impacted the budgetary values for the focus areas, as well as the overall 1 2 3 4 FY 2011 FY 2010 FY 2009

68 69 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

U.S. Department of Agriculture FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 USDA Focus Area/Agency Actual Enacted Proposed 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and present climate 6.8 8.1 8.3 variability and change Agricultural Research Service 2.4 2.4 2.4 Forest Service 3.5 4.8 5.0 National Institute of Food and Agriculture 0.9 0.9 0.9 2. Improving our understanding of natural and human forces of 8.5 20.2 30.4 climate change Agricultural Research Service 4.5 4.5 5.0 Forest Service 3.5 7.5 4.5 National Institute of Food and Agriculture 0.5 8.2 20.9 3. Improving our capability to model and predict future 5.6 20.8 21.8 conditions and impacts Agricultural Research Service 3.9 3.9 3.9 Forest Service 1.0 0.4 2.0 National Institute of Food and Agriculture (AFRI)1 0.5 16.4 15.7 National Institute of Food and Agriculture (GC/UVBR&M)2 0.2 0.2 0.2 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current and 15.2 29.7 43.1 anticipated impacts of climate change Agricultural Research Service 5.1 5.1 5.3 Economic Research Service 0.0 0.5 0.5 Forest Service 9.5 13.0 11.0 National Institute of Food and Agriculture 0.6 11.1 26.3 5. Providing climate information and decision 11.1 23.0 33.8 support tools Agricultural Research Service 3.9 3.9 5.3 Economic Research Service 1.0 2.0 2.0 Forest Service 4.5 6.1 5.5 National Institute of Food and Agriculture (AFRI) 1.6 10.9 20.9 National Institute of Food and Agriculture (GC/UVBR&M) 0.1 0.1 0.1 6. Climate Change Communication and Education 0.4 8.3 21.1 Forest Service 0.2 0.0 0.1 National Institute of Food and Agriculture (AFRI) 0.2 8.2 20.9 National Institute of Food and Agriculture (GC/UVBR&M) 0.1 0.1 0.1 USDA Total 47.6 110.2 President’s Request 158.5 1 Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program 2 Global Change/B Radiation Research and Monitoring Program Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports, Department of Agriculture USGCRP activities are funded under Title I–Agricultural Programs, within the ARS, NIFA, and ERS accounts; and under Title II–Conservation Programs, within the NRCS Conservation Operations account. Also in Appropriations Committee reports, U.S. Department of Agriculture USGCRP activities are funded in the USDA FS section under Title II–Related Agencies, within the FS Forest Research account.

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U.S. Department of Commerce FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 Agency Program Project/Activity Actual Enacted Proposed 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and 306.5 227.9 282.8 present climate variability and change NOAA OAR Climate variability research 37.4 42.6 43.2 Global Ocean Observation NOAA OAR 59.2 63.9 68.8 System Climate data and information NOAA OAR products and climate 7.0 14.7 10.6 operations National data centers, NOAA NESDIS enviromental data, 73.9 74.7 40.8 information and products NOAA NESDIS Jason 3 0.0 20.0 50.0 NOAA NESDIS Climate satellite sensors 127.0 10.0 67.4 National and international NIST NIST 2.0 2.0 2.0 standards for measurement 2. Improving our understanding of natural and 39.7 44.8 50.1 human forces of climate change Other GHG observations NOAA OAR 20.0 24.1 21.6 and research Carbon cycle observations and NOAA OAR 19.7 20.7 28.5 research 3. Improving our capability to model and predict 214.9 42.4 53.4 future conditions and impacts NOAA OAR Climate modeling 28.1 20.1 27.4 Operational short-term NOAA NWS 10.4 10.9 14.6 forecasting and monitoring NOAA OAR/CIO High performance computing 176.4 11.4 11.4 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current 3.9 2.1 2.2 and anticipated impacts of climate change NOAA NMFS Climate and ecosystems 3.9 2.1 2.2 5. Providing climate information and decision 29.1 41.9 46.1 support tools NOAA OAR Adaptive management support 29.1 32.9 36.1 NOAA OAR Assessments 0.0 9.0 10.0 6. Climate Change Communication and Education 1.3 1.3 2.8 NOAA OAR Communication and education 1.3 1.3 2.8 DOC Total 595.4 360.4 President’s Request 437.4 Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In Appropriations Committee reports, funding for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration USGCRP activities is specified in the Laboratories and Coop- erative Institutes, Competitive Research Programs, Climate Operations, and Climate Data and Information lines of the Oceanic and Atmospheric Research budget; in the Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity line of the National Marine Fisheries Service budget; the Data Centers and Information Services line of the National Environ- mental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) budget; the Local Warnings and Forecasts and Central Forecast Guidance lines of the National Weather Service (NWS) budget; and the Ocean Assessment Program’s Coastal Services Center line of the National Ocean Service budget within NOAA’s Operations, Research, and Fa- cilities account. In addition, a portion of NOAA’s climate funding is found within the Procurement, Acquisition, and Construction account for NESDIS, NWS, and OAR. Funding for National Institute of Standards and Technol- ogy USGCRP activities is specified in the Scientific and Technical Research and Services account.

70 71 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

U.S. Department of Energy FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 Agency Program Project/Activity Actual Enacted Proposed 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and present 102.4 44.6 48.5 climate variability and change ARM Climate research facility and DOE BER 102.4 44.6 48.5 data management 2. Improving our understanding of natural and human 25.4 26.5 28.4 forces of climate change DOE BER Atmospheric system research 25.4 26.5 28.4 3. Improving our capability to model and predict future 75.6 69.8 85.6 conditions and impacts DOE BER Climate and earth system modeling 75.6 69.8 85.6 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current and 27.9 27.9 28.6 anticipated impacts of climate change DOE BER Terrestrial ecosystems science 27.9 27.9 28.6 5. Providing climate information and decision 0.0 0.0 0.0 support tools

6. Climate Change Communication and Education 1.4 1.4 0.0 DOE BER Global change education program 1.4 1.4 0.0 DOE Total 232.7 170.2 President’s Request 191.1

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports, Department of Energy USGCRP activities are funded under Title III– Department of Energy, within the Energy Supply, Research, and Development Activities account. Also in these Appropriations Committee reports, funding for Department of Energy USGCRP activities is included as part of the appropriation for Biological and Environmental Research.

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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 Agency Program Project/Activity Actual Enacted Proposed 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and present 0.0 0.0 0.0 climate variability and change

2. Improving our understanding of natural and human 0.0 0.0 0.0 forces of climate change

3. Improving our capability to model and predict future 5.0 4.0 4.0 conditions and impacts NIEHS, FIC, Human health impacts of climate NIH NIGMS, 2.0 2.0 0.0 change NLM NIEHS, FIC, NIH NIGMS, Unsolicited Grants 3.0 2.0 4.0 NLM 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current and 0.0 0.0 0.0 anticipated impacts of climate change

5. Providing climate information and decision 0.0 0.0 0.0 support tools

6. Climate Change Communication and Education 0.0 0.0 0.0

HHS Total 5.0 4.0 President’s Request 4.0

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports, Department of Health and Human Services USGCRP activities are funded under the National Institutes of Health section of Title II–Department of Health and Human Services.

72 73 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

U.S. Department of the Interior FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 Agency Program Project/Activity Actual Enacted Proposed 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and present 12.2 13.7 13.0 climate variability and change Global Change R&D: Climate History and Past DOI USGS 8.6 9.9 9.7 Environmental Change Research Focus NSLRSDA: National Satellite Land Remote DOI USGS 3.6 3.8 3.3 Sensing Data Archive 2. Improving our understanding of natural and human forces 2.0 2.4 2.3 of climate change Global Change R&D: Carbon Cycle Science DOI USGS 2.0 2.4 2.3 Research Focus 3. Improving our capability to model and predict future 7.4 8.3 8.1 conditions and impacts Global Change R&D: Hydrology and DOI USGS Hydrologic Consequences of Climate Change 3.4 3.9 3.8 Research Focus Global Change R&D: Land Use and Land Cover DOI USGS 2.9 3.3 3.3 Change Research Focus Terrestrial, Freshwater and Marine DOI USGS 1.1 1.1 1.0 Ecosystems Research 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current and 8.4 12.3 17.0 anticipated impacts of climate change DOI USGS Climate Effects Network 4.0 7.3 7.3 Global Change R&D: Impacts of Climate DOI USGS Change on Communities, Landscapes, 4.4 5.0 4.7 Ecosystems and Organisms Research Focus Climate Impacts: Support for Fish and Wildlife DOI USGS 0.0 5.0 5.0 Service Climate Change Activities FY 2010* 5. Providing climate information and decision 14.5 26.6 41.1 support tools DOI USGS Decision Support and Science Applications 1.5 1.5 2.5 National Climate Change and Wildlife Science DOI USGS 10.0 13.6 14.0 Center DOI USGS DOI Regional Climate Science Centers 0.0 1.5 9.0 DOI USGS Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment 1.5 5.0 7.0 DOI USGS Geological Carbon Sequestration Assessment 1.5 5.0 5.0 Chesapeake Bay Executive Order Treasured DOI USGS 0.0 0.0 3.6 Landscapes Initiative 6. Climate Change Communication and Education 0.0 0.0 0.0

DOI Total 44.5 63.3 President’s Request 81.5 *Note: Not included in FY 2010 total because it is a new item not in the direct USGS Global Change budget line. This item is identified and discussed in the USGS FY 2010 Green Book (page C-31) and in the DOI FY 2011 Budget-in-Brief (page C-1).

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Com- mittee reports, Department of the Interior USGCRP activities are funded under Title I–Department of the Interior. Funding for U.S. Geological Survey USGCRP programs is included within the USGS Survey, Investigations, and Research account.

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U.S. Department of Transportation FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 Agency Program Project/Activity Actual Enacted Proposed 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and present 0.0 0.0 0.0 climate variability and change

2. Improving our understanding of natural and human 2.0 3.0 3.0 forces of climate change Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) and PARTNER FAA AEE (Partnership for AiR Transportation Noise 2.0 3.0 3.0 and Emissions Reduction) aviation climate change research activities 3. Improving our capability to model and predict future 0.0 0.0 0.0 conditions and impacts

4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current and 0.0 0.0 0.0 anticipated impacts of climate change

5. Providing climate information and decision 0.3 1.0 0.5 support tools Support for DOT Climate Center’s Study, the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and FHWA HEP Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase 2, 0.3 1.0 0.5 and the report to Congress: Transporta- tion’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (DOT, April 2010) 6. Climate Change Communication and Education 0.0 0.0 0.0

DOT Total 2.3 4.0 President’s Request 3.5 Note: * Projects still in planning phase. The budgets for these projects are not determined in advance.. AEE - Office of Environment and Energy CCCEF - USDOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting FAA - Federal Aviation Administration FHWA - Federal Highway Administration FTA - Federal Transit Administration HEP - Office of Planning, Environment and Realty URC - University Research Centers

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. Since 2000, the Department’s climate change research has been funded by contributions from eight of DOT’s operating administrations and the Office of the Secretary.

74 75 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

U.S. Agency for International Development FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 Agency Program Project/Activity Actual Enacted Proposed 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and present 0.0 0.0 0.0 climate variability and change

2. Improving our understanding of natural and human 0.0 0.0 0.0 forces of climate change

3. Improving our capability to model and predict future 16.7 18.0 18.0 conditions and impacts USAID DCHA1 Famine Early Warning System Network 16.7 18.0 18.0 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current and 0.0 0.0 0.0 anticipated impacts of climate change

5. Providing climate information and decision 1.5 18.0 25.0 support tools SERVIR—the Regional Visualization USAID EGAT2 1.5 18.0 25.0 and Monitoring System 6. Climate Change Communication and Education 0.0 0.0 0.0

USAID Total 18.2 36.0 President’s Request 43.0 1 Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance 2 Economic Growth, Agriculture, and Trade

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports, U.S. Agency for International Development USGCRP activities are funded under Title II–Bilateral Economic Assistance: United States Agency for International Development.

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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 Agency Program Project/Activity Actual Enacted Proposed 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and present 0.0 0.0 0.0 climate variability and change

2. Improving our understanding of natural and human 0.0 0.0 0.0 forces of climate change

3. Improving our capability to model and predict future 0.0 0.0 0.0 conditions and impacts

4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current and 17.3 19.6 20.8 anticipated impacts of climate change Climate Change and 1) Air Quality, 2) EPA ORD1 Water Quality, and 3) USGCRP 17.3 19.6 20.8 Assessments 5. Providing climate information and decision 0.6 1.2 1.2 support tools Environmental assessment of mitigation EPA ORD 0.6 1.2 1.2 technologies 6. Climate Change Communication and Education 0.0 0.0 0.0

EPA Total 17.9 20.8 President’s Request 22.0 1 ORD - Office of Research and Development

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports, Environmental Protection Agency USGCRP activities are funded under Title II–Environmental Protection Agency, within the Science and Technology account. Appropriations Committee report language may specify more directly the funding for global change research.

76 77 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration1 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 Agency Program Project/Activity Actual Enacted Proposed 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and present 866.8 727.7 995.0 climate variability and change NASA SMD/ESD2 Earth Systematic Missions 850.2 665.1 720.6 NASA SMD/ESD Earth System Science Pathfinder 16.6 62.6 274.4 2. Improving our understanding of natural and human 345.0 324.5 361.3 forces of climate change NASA SMD/ESD Earth Science Research 345.0 324.5 361.3 3. Improving our capability to model and predict future 36.8 20.6 24.5 conditions and impacts Global Modeling and Assimilation NASA SMD/ESD 36.8 20.6 24.5 Scientific Computing 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current and 0.0 0.0 0.0 anticipated impacts of climate change

5. Providing climate information and decision 47.8 32.0 36.6 support tools NASA SMD/ESD Applied Science - Pathways 47.8 32.0 36.6 6. Climate Change Communication and Education 16.5 14.8 17.2 Fellowships and New Investigators NASA SMD/ESD Earth Science Education and 16.5 14.8 17.2 Outreach Activity NASA Total 1312.9 1119.6 President’s Request 1434.6 1 Subsequent to publication of the Federal Climate Change Expenditures Report, NASA’s FY 2009 and FY 2010 Budget Authority were changed due to a Congressionally-approved reprogramming. The FY 2011 Proposed Budget Authority was updated to include the aug- mentation to NASA for the FY 2011 climate change initiative. These changes then impacted the budgetary values for the focus areas, as well as the overall budget total. 2 Science Mission Directorate/Earth Science Division

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports, National Aeronautics and Space Administration USGCRP activities are funded under NASA Earth science and technology programs within Title III–Independent Agencies, as part of the Science, Aeronautics, and Technology account.

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National Science Foundation FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 Agency Directorates* Project/Activity Actual Enacted Proposed 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and present climate 89.7 67.1 75.7 variability and change Long-term climate cycles, BIO, GEO, NSF paleoclimate, past climate extremes 89.7 67.1 75.7 MPS, OPP and modulations 2. Improving our understanding of natural and human forces of 90.4 67.2 73.3 climate change Carbon cycle and response of biota BIO, ENG, NSF and ecosystems to changes in climate, 90.4 67.2 73.3 GEO, MPS, OPP biogeochemical cycles 3. Improving our capability to model and predict future 99.7 73.6 82.7 conditions and impacts Feedback processes invloved in BIO, GEO, NSF response of climate system to natural 99.7 73.6 82.7 MPS, SBE, OPP and human induced forcing 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current and antici- pated 97.5 97.6 120.9 impacts of climate change Societal response to natural and BIO, GEO, anthropogenic changes in global NSF 97.5 97.6 120.9 SBE, OPP climate, ecosystem dynamics, water management 5. Providing climate information and decision support tools 12.5 13.5 17.3 Decision making under uncertainty NSF BIO, GEO, SBE associated with climate change, 12.5 13.5 17.3 decision support tools for stakeholders 6. Climate Change Communication and Education 0.0 0.0 0.0

NSF Total 389.8 319.0 President’s Request 369.9 * Directorates identified in the NSF agency description.

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports, National Science Foundation USGCRP activities are supported under the NSF section of Title III–Independent Agencies within the NSF Research and Related Expenses account.

78 79 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

Smithsonian Institution Project/ FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 Agency Program Activity Actual Enacted Proposed 1. Improving our knowledge of Earth’s past and present 3.1 4.1 6.1 climate variability and change Forest dynamics, carbon, SI USS* 1.6 2.6 4.6 and biodiversity SI USS Paleontological research 1.5 1.5 1.5 2. Improving our understanding of natural and human 0.0 0.0 0.0 forces of climate change

3. Improving our capability to model and predict future 0.9 0.9 0.9 conditions and impacts SI USS Geological processes research 0.5 0.5 0.5 SI USS Atmospheric research 0.4 0.4 0.4 4. Assessing the Nation’s vulnerability to current and 1.2 1.2 2.2 anticipated impacts of climate change SI USS Biodiversity and ecosystem responses 1.2 1.2 2.2 5. Providing climate information and decision 0.5 0.5 1.5 support tools Digitization collection and research SI USS 0.5 0.5 1.5 records 6. Climate Change Communication and Education 0.3 0.3 0.3 SI USS Outreach and education 0.3 0.3 0.3 SI Total 6.0 7.0 President’s Request 11.0 *Note: Office of the Under Secretary for Science.

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports, Smithsonian Institution USGCRP activities are funded in the Smithsonian section of Title III-Related Agencies, within the Salaries and Expenses account. Appropriations Committee reports specify funding for a Sciences line item component of this account, [Under the heading Understanding and Sustaining a Biodiverse Planet] which includes USGCRP programs.

This material was developed with federal support through the U.S. Global Change Research Program under National Science Foundation Cooperative Agreement No. AGS-0936504. 80 PB The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011 OUR CHANGING PLANET

Definition of Key Terms

Adaptation - Adjustment in natural or human Climate Feedback - An interaction among pro- systems to a new or changing environment that cesses in the climate system in which a change exploits beneficial opportunities or moderates in one process triggers a secondary process that negative effects. influences the first one. A positive feedback intensifies the change in the original process, and Aerosols - Tiny particles suspended in the air. a negative feedback reduces it. Anthropogenic - Human-induced. Climate Forcing - A process that directly changes Biomass - The mass of living organic matter (plant the average energy balance of the Earth-atmo- and animal) in an ecosystem; biomass also refers sphere system by affecting the balance between to organic matter (living and dead) available on a incoming solar radiation and outgoing or “back” renewable basis for use as a fuel. Biomass includes radiation. A positive forcing tends to warm the trees and plants (both terrestrial and aquatic), surface of the Earth and a negative forcing tends agricultural crops and wastes, wood and wood to cool the surface. wastes, forest and mill residues, animal wastes, livestock operation residues, and some municipal Climate System - The highly complex system and industrial wastes. consisting of five major components: the atmo- sphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the Black Carbon - Soot particles primarily from fossil land surface, the biosphere, and the interactions fuel burning. among them. The climate system evolves in time under the influence of its own internal dynamics Carbon Cycle - The term used to describe the flow and because of external forcings such as volcanic of carbon (in various forms such as carbon dioxide eruptions, solar variations, and human-induced [CO2], organic matter, and carbonates) through forcings such as the changing composition of the the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere, and atmosphere and land use change. lithosphere Climate Variability - Variations in the mean state Carbon Sequestration - The process of increasing and other statistics of climatic features at temporal the carbon content of a carbon reservoir other than and spatial scales beyond those of individual the atmosphere; often used narrowly to refer to weather events. These often are due to internal increasing the carbon content of carbon pools in processes within the climate system. Examples of the biosphere and distinguished from physical or cyclical forms of climate variability include the chemical collection of carbon followed by injec- El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic tion into geologic reservoirs, which is generally Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. referred to as “carbon capture and storage.” APPENDIX – GLOSSARY AND ACRONYMS – GLOSSARY APPENDIX Cyclone - A storm system that rotates around a Climate - The statistical description of the mean center of low atmospheric pressure. and variability of relevant measures of the atmo- sphere-ocean system over periods of time ranging Deforestation - The process of removing or clear- from weeks to thousands or millions of years. ing trees from forested land.

Climate Change - A statistically significant Ecosystem - A community (i.e., an assemblage of variation either in the mean state of the climate or populations of plants, animals, fungi, and micro- in its variability, persisting for an extended period organisms that live in an environment and interact (typically decades or longer). Climate change may with one another, forming, together, a distinctive be due to natural internal processes or to external living system with its own composition, struc- forcing, including changes in solar radiation and ture, environmental relations, development, and volcanic eruptions, or persistent human-induced function) and its environment treated together as a changes in atmospheric composition or land use. functional system of complementary relationships and transfer and circulation of energy and matter. PB 81 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - The wax- Prediction - A probabilistic description or forecast ing and waning every two to seven years of El Niño of a future climate outcome based on observations of and La Niña ocean temperature cycles along with past and current oceanic and atmospheric conditions the related atmospheric pressure component of the and quantitative models of climate processes (e.g., a Southern Oscillation; the primary centers of ENSO prediction of an El Niño event). variability are in the tropical Pacific, but ENSO ef- fects can be felt across much of the globe. Projection - A description of the response of the climate system to an assumed level of future radia- Forcing - a natural or human-induced factor that tive forcing. Changes in radiative forcing may be due influences climate. to either natural sources (e.g., volcanic emissions) or human-induced factors (e.g., emissions of green- Fossil Fuels - Fuels such as coal, petroleum, and house gases and aerosols, or changes in land use and natural gas derived from the chemical and physical land cover). Climate “projections” are distinguished transformation (fossilization) of the remains of plants from climate “predictions” in order to emphasize and animals that lived during the Carboniferous that climate projections depend on scenarios of Period 360 to 286 million years ago. future socioeconomic, technological, and policy developments that may or may not be realized. Global Change - Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productiv- Sink - In general, any process, activity, or mecha- ity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric nism that removes a greenhouse gas or a precursor chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the of a greenhouse gas or aerosol from the atmosphere; capacity of the Earth to sustain life (from the Global in this report, a sink is any regime or pool in which Change Research Act of 1990, PL 101-606). the amount of carbon is increasing (i.e., is being accumulated or stored). Greenhouse gases - Atmospheric gases including water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, Source - In general, any process, activity, or mecha- and halocarbons that trap infrared heat, warming nism that releases a greenhouse gas or a precursor of the air near the surface and in the lower levels of the a greenhouse gas or aerosol into the atmosphere; in atmosphere this report, a source is any regime or pool in which the amount of carbon is decreasing (i.e., is being Mitigation - An intervention to reduce the human- released or emitted). induced factors that contribute to climate change. This could include approaches devised to reduce Stratosphere - The highly stratified region of the emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; to atmosphere above the troposphere extending from enhance their removal from the atmosphere through about 10 kilometers (km) (ranging from 9 km in high storage in geological formations, soils, biomass, latitudes to 16 km in the tropics on average) to about or the ocean; or to alter incoming solar radiation 50 km. through several “geo-engineering” options. Troposphere - The lowest part of the atmosphere Observations - Standardized measurements (either from the surface to about 10 km in altitude in mid- continuing or episodic) of variables in climate and latitudes (ranging from 9 km in high latitudes to related systems. 16 km in the tropics on average) where clouds and “weather” phenomena occur; in the troposphere, Ocean Acidification - The phenomenon in which temperatures generally decrease with height the pH of the oceans becomes more acidic due to

increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, which, in Weather - The specific condition of the atmosphere turn, increase the amount of dissolved CO2 in sea at a particular place and time, measured in terms water. of variables such as wind, temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, cloudiness, and precipitation. Permafrost - Soils or rocks that remain below 0°C for at least two consecutive years.

82 83 OUR CHANGING PLANET

ACRONYMS GCCE Global Climate Change Education ACCRI Aviation Climate Change Research GCOS Global Climate Observing System Initiative GCP USGS Global Change Programs ACRF ARM Climate Research Facility GCRA Global Change Research Act ACRIMSAT Activity Cavity Radiometer Irradiance GEO Group on Earth Observations Monitor SATellite GEOSS Global Earth Observation System of AFRI Agriculture and Food Research Systems Initiative GHG Greenhouse Gas AMOC Atlantic Meridional Overturning GIS Geographic Information System Circulation GLOBE Global Learning and Observations to APHA American Public Health Association Benefit the Environment APS Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor GLS Global Land Survey AR5 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report GOOS Global Ocean Observation System ARM Atmospheric Radiation Measurement GPM Global Precipitation Measurement ARS Agricultural Research Service GRACE Gravity Recovery and Climate ASTHO Association for State and Territorial Experiment Health Officials GRACEnet Greenhouse gas Reductions through CALIPSO Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Agricultural Carbon Enhancement Pathfinder Satellite Observation network CCHHG Interagency Crosscutting Group on GRUAN GCOS Reference Upper Air Network Climate Change and Human Health HPC High Performance Computing CCSP Climate Change Science Program HYCOM Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model CCTP Climate Change Technology Program IAM Integrated Assessment Model CD Climate Diagnostics IARPC Interagency Arctic Research Policy CDC Centers for Disease Control and Committee Prevention ICAO International Civil Aviation CDIAC Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Organization Center ICESat Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite CEOS Committee on Earth Observing ICSU International Council for Science Satellites IDN International Directory Network CEQ Council on Environmental Quality IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere CLARREO Climate Absolute Radiance and Programme Refractivity Observatory IHDP International Human Dimensions CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability Programme CloudSat Cloud Satellite IOOS Integrated Ocean Observing System CMC Carbon Management Center IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate CMS Carbon Monitoring System Change

CO2 Carbon Dioxide IT Information Technology EHP Environmental Health Perspectives IWG Interagency Working Group ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation IWGCCH Interagency Working Group on EO Earth Observer Climate Change and Health EOS Earth Observing System JGCRI Joint Global Change Research EROS Earth Resources Observation Systems Institute ERS Economic Research Service LCDM Landsat Data Continuity Mission ESM Earth System Model LRSP Land Remote Sensing Program ESSP Earth System Science Partnership LTER Long Term Ecological Research EV Earth Venture Network

FACE Free-Air CO2 Enrichment MERRA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis FEWS NET Famine Early Warning System for Research and Applications Network MJO Madden-Julian Oscillation FIA Forest Inventory Analysis MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging GCI GEOSS Common Infrastructure Spectroradiometer

GCAM Global Change Assessment Model N2O Nitrous Oxide 82 83 The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

NACCHO National Association of County and UNEP United Nations Environment City Health Officials Programme NACP North American Carbon Program UNFCCC United Nations Framework NARCCAP North American Regional Climate Convention on Climate Change Change Assessment Program URL Uniform Resource Locator NEON National Ecological Observatory UV-B Ultraviolet B Network UVBR&M Ultraviolet B Research and NGO Nongovernmental Organization Monitoring Program NIDIS National Integrated Drought WCRP World Climate Research Programme Information System WGISS CEOS Working Group on Information NOPP National Oceanographic Partnership Systems and Science Program WMO World Meteorological Organization NPOESS National Polar-orbiting Operational WWA Western Water Assessment Environmental Satellite System NPP NPOESS Preparatory Project NPS National Park Service NRC National Research Council NSLRSDA National Satellite Land Remote Sensing Data Archive OCB Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry OCO Orbiting Carbon Observatory OCP Ocean Carbon Program OMB Office of Management and Budget OSTM Ocean Surface Topography Mission OSTP Office of Science and Technology Policy PAR Photosynthetically Active Radiation PARTNER Partnership for Air Transportation Noise and Emissions Reduction ppm – parts per million QuikSCAT Quick Scatterometer RISA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments SAGE Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment SBA Societal Benefit Areas SCICEX Science Ice Exercise SECC Southeast Climate Consortium SERDP Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program SERVIR Sistema Regional de Visualización y Monitoreo

SF6 Sulfur Hexafluoride SGCR Subcommittee for Global Change Research SMAP Soil Moisture Active-Passive SORCE Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment SSS Sea Surface Salinity SST Sea Surface Temperature START SysTem for Analysis, Research, and Training TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission UAS Unmanned Aerial System 84 PB Subcommittee on Global Change Research contact information Thomas Karl Jonathan Pershing Department of Commerce Department of State Chair Joann Roskoski U. S. Global Change Research Program Office Thomas Armstrong National Science Foundation Department of the Interior 1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Vice Chair, Adaptation Research Michael Slimak Suite 250 Environmental Protection Agency Washington, DC 20006 Mike Freilich 202-223-6262 (voice) National Aeronautics and Space Administration Alan Thornhill 202-223-3065 (fax) Vice Chair, Integrated Observations Department of the Interior [email protected] Timothy Killeen Linwood Vincent www.globalchange.gov National Science Foundation Department of Defense Vice Chair, Strategic Planning

William Breed EXECUTIVE OFFICE AND U.S. Agency for International Development OTHER LIAISONS

John Balbus Sherburne Abbott Department of Health and Human Services White House Office of Science and Photography Credits Technology Policy William Hohenstein Clouds, ©iStockphotos.com/Dave Raboin (front cover; page 3, section 3:3) Coastal Storm 1-RF (front section); Department of Agriculture Jason Bordoff Earth globe, ©iStockphotos.com/Miroslaw Pieprzyk (front cover and introduction; Section 3:2 and 3:3, pages Council on Environmental Quality 1, 3, 5, 9, 19, 35); Section 1:I, drought, ©iStockphotos.com/ Tobias Helbig; Indiana flood,© iStockphotos.com/ Jack Kaye Tony campbell ©Warren Faildey-Weatherstock.com (page 4, Hurricane 16-RF; page 8, Storm Clouds 6-RF; National Aeronautics and Space Administration Katharine Gebbie page 18, Ice Storm 1-RF; page 34, Blizzard 3-rf); NOAA (front cover- polar bears, melting ice, drought; Page 3, National Institute of Standards and Technology permafrost). Chester Koblinsky Department of Commerce Stuart Levenbach Office of Management and Budget Linda Lawson Department of Transportation Rick Duke Department of Energy Leonard Hirsch Climate Change Technology Program Smithsonian Institution Margaret McCalla Anna Palmisano Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Department of Energy

This document describes the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) for FY 2011. It provides a summary of the achievements of the program, an analysis of the progress made, and budgetary information. It thereby responds to the annual reporting requirements of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Section 102, P. L. 101-606). It does not express any regulatory policies of the United States To obtain a copy of this document place an order at the Global Change Research or any of its agencies, or make any findings of fact that could serve as predicates for regulatory action. Information Office (GCRIO) web site: www.gcrio.org/orders. Agencies must comply with required statutory and regulatory processes before they could rely on any statements in this document or by the USGCRP as a basis for regulatory action. The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011

The U.S. Global Change Research Program 1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW • Suite 250 • Washington, D.C., 20006 USA +1.202.223.6262 (voice) • +1.202.223.3065 (fax) http://www.globalchange.gov/