Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft Federal Department of Defence, Confédération suisse Civil Protection and Sport DDPS Confederazione Svizzera armasuisse Confederaziun svizra Science and Technology Contact

Research Director – Technology Foresight Dr Quentin Ladetto; tel. +41 58 468 28 09 [email protected] www.sicherheitsforschung.ch www.deftech.ch

Publisher : armasuisse Science and Technology Feuerwerkerstrasse 39, CH-3602 Thun

Editor : Quentin Ladetto

Contributors: : Mariella Biegeler, Hansruedi Bircher, Christopher Cordey, Daniel Daeppen, Olivier Desjeux, Abdoulaye Diallo, Adolf J. Doerig, Thomas Gauthier, Felix Gläser, Samuel Godina, Daniel Kaplan, Philipp Klüfers, Sibylle Lang, Graziano Lento, Rebecca Meldrum, Nicolas G. Mueller, Anita Noli-Kilchenmann, Pascal van Overloop, Matthieu Pellet, Philip Plagens, Hans Pratisto, Gabriele Rizzo, Iris Rose, Jean Signori, Philippe Steinmann, Wim Vanheertum, Alain Wacker

Graphic design : Annie Seiko Rubattel ([email protected])

Illustrations and graphic novel elements : Matthieu Pellet ([email protected])

Translation : Versions Originales Sàrl, Neuchâtel

Reproduction : only with the publisher’s permission (contact armasuisse)

ISBN: 978-3-9524890-8-6 Dear Reader,

Our world is changing fast these days. Never before In this spirit of foresight, this publication seeks to in human history has technology brought about such illustrate some concepts relating to the Swiss soldier significant social and economic transformations in such of the future in a way that is striking, perhaps even a short time. The democratisation of access to certain disturbing at times, but definitely novel. Our aim is to technologies that used to be more or less exclusively make it easier to understand possible future scenarios reserved for government agencies has made forms in which technology will certainly play an important of conflict possible that were previously unknown or role but will not be the only factor. Raising awareness even inconceivable. The institutions responsible for of technological progress among our armed forces national security therefore have a strategic interest and planning bodies is the first step towards opening in tracking technological trends and disruptions with up a constructive dialogue on the complex issues we a view to anticipating opportunities and threats for will be confronted with sooner or later. civilians and the military alike. armasuisse Science and Technology (S+T) coordinates the necessary research I hope you enjoy reading what follows. to develop the scientific and technological expertise we need to face up to future threats.

Dr. Thomas Rothacher

Director armasuisse Science and Technology Research is an investment in the future. In the These are new technologies that have caused a funda- defence industry, it is an investment in our coun- mental break from the past in economic and social try’s future security. The continued development of terms as well as for the armed forces, transforming our armed forces requires a solid grounding in the usage, processes and our day-to-day lives generally. technologies set to emerge over the next 20 years. The fast pace of technological advancement, the While the digital revolution is already in full swing ever-widening gap between civilian and military on the civilian side, it is still in its infancy as far as the technologies and the interdisciplinary approach armed forces are concerned. The complexity of these that has become essential to cutting-edge innova- changes can only be understood through an inter- tion represent significant challenges to researchers disciplinary and transdisciplinary approach in which in defence-related fields. experts at various levels and in various fields address a subject and seek to shed light on it from different At armasuisse, our research operations are angles. What you have here is a graphical represen- responding to these challenges in order to develop tation of just such an approach on the theme “ The technological expertise that supports overall mili- Future Soldier: Digital and Enhanced ? ” tary planning and also informs the procurement process. This reduces the risks associated with both We hope you find it an informative and enjoyable the systems acquired for the armed forces and the read and would be delighted to receive any feed- continued development of those forces. We pay back you may have. special attention to disruptive technologies.

Dr. Hansruedi Bircher

Research Management Director armasuisse Science and Technology Dear Reader,

In a defence context, it is vital to anticipate not We wanted to convey the findings in the most enter- only an enemy’s intentions, but also the means taining and informative way possible, and it was clear by which the enemy will seek to achieve its ends. that this could not be done in the form of a standard Recent technological developments, their interac- report. Instead, we opted for a graphic novel format tion with each other and the speed with which they that we hope is easy to read and brings the subject are evolving have prompted armasuisse Science matter to life. and Technology to set up a research programme entitled “ Technology Foresight ”. The programme In depicting some possible real-world scenarios, our aims to identify disruptive technologies and assess intention was to provide food for thought on the their impact on the military sphere in general and big questions that will shape our future. Whether the Swiss Armed Forces in particular. To this end, you love or hate what you read, the important thing it organises three DEFTECH Workshops a year. The is to understand the reasons behind your reaction. theme of the workshop held on 8 May 2019 was Visualising and, hopefully, understanding these “ The Future Soldier : Digital and Enhanced ? ”. concepts allows us to act on them; and what could During the afternoon session, those attending were be more important for us than acting to strengthen split up into six groups, each tasked with working on our country’s defences and security and ultimately the future of a specific topic in line with a defined our freedom ? process that concluded with a brief presentation lasting a few minutes. The structure and content of this publication are based on those six presenta- tions. We have attempted to reproduce the ideas put forward at the workshop as faithfully as possible through pictures accompanied by explanatory texts.

Dr. Quentin Ladetto

Director of the research programme “Technology Foresight” armasuisse Science and Technology “ Speed is the essence of war. Take advantage of the welcome effect of broadening the scope of debate enemy’s unpreparedness and attack him unawares ”, and bridging the narrowing gap between the military wrote Sun Tzu around 2,500 years ago. While this is and civilian worlds, between human and machine, the certainly true for an attack, defence requires forward virtual and the real. All in all, the workshop brought planning. Predicting events is about more than just us closer to a vision of the future. knowing the lie of the land or when an attack will Given the task of creating a graphic novel depicting come: it is above all about having the right strategy the various ideas that had been raised, I adopted a and hardware to counter those used by the enemy. fast-moving and direct visual style that immediately Greece’s city-states demonstrated this during the draws the reader into the story. I also opted to blend Greco-Persian Wars. The Greeks had more advanced the classic hand-drawn aesthetic with a contempo- weaponry than their Persian adversaries, and this rary infographic approach, which I feel reflects the was instrumental in the victory that ensured their growing interaction between humans and machines. continued independence. First and foremost, however, I sought to stay true to the spirit of the workshop and those who attended, After attending the workshop under the heading focusing on technology without losing sight of the “ The Future Soldier : Digital and Enhanced ? ”, I can all-important human factor. confirm that armasuisse Science and Technology is meeting this need very effectively. With a forward- I sincerely hope that you enjoy reading these episodes looking attitude, the workshop centred on digital and that, together with the accompanying texts, strategies and future weapons and equipment. they give you a clear insight into the various issues However, while technology was at the heart of the discussed, which should be of interest to anyone subject matter, it was far from the only topic under curious about what the future holds. consideration. The discussions and presentations were also continually influenced by political, psycholog- ical, social and environmental factors. These had the

Dr. Matthieu Pellet

Lecturer and researcher University of Lausanne

The world’s becoming more and more intercon- nected, and the growing influence of digital technology on our physical reality is now a central concern. Most technological innovations give rise to both opportunities and risks. Civilians and mili- tary alike are heavily dependent on (information) technology and critical infrastructure ranging from satellites up in space to energy suppliers. Whether coordinated or in parallel, automated or not, cyberattacks could be a prelude to conven- tional warfare. These days, they even constitute a business model. Information warfare has taken I’m a part-time reserve soldier with an IT techni- on a vital role in combating continual efforts to cian and system administrator role. My civilian job manipulate information across a broad front, is technology consulting for large corporations. particularly through fake news that can have a Most of my colleagues are part-time reservists decisive impact on public opinion. as well. Our main tasks are keeping military and civilian networks secure and defending our crit- ical infrastructure against attacks. We make our systems more resilient by controlling access to them. A special team supports our comrades out in the field with information warfare strategies. Cyberneti c s and information Switzerland Central Command Attention all units !

Reports confirmed ! Blackout in Basel !

23 September 2050 12 minutes earlier, Basel 22:38 Swiss Armed Forces Intelligence Centre 22:39 Yes, forward info to HQ ! 22:40 We’ve got 12 minutes to prepare countermeasures !

The bomb threat was a hoax ! A Japanese student decrypted a comms channel ! Awaiting confirmation, blackout expected in Basel ! Enemy presence strongly suspected ! Central Command Colonel ! !? Second message Under- 22:42 decrypted by Work with stood ! EPFL * ! We’re local police Stay on on it ! Enemy presence to set up a high alert ! confirmed ! secure We have no Thought perimeter info on to be and deal with the enemy mercenaries ! accidents !!! Equipment caused by unknown the blackout !!! !

Intelligence Centre Perfectly, Colonel.

Intelligence Loud and Team Echo, Team clear, can you Alfa, Colonel ! hear me can you We’re in ? hear me position ? !!!

Find out where these Presence mercenaries came of enemy from, what equip- mercenaries ment they have, and confirmed ! most importantly who Start by they’re working for searching ! sensitive areas ! Roger To be !!! continued ... * EPFL : Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne The main challenge military personnel face on missions today is filtering and processing all the information and data collected to form a detailed, objective picture of the situation. Every decision and its consequences depend on this. With this in mind, we make extensive use of automated processes supported by new tech- nologies that allow us to refine our analysis and thus also our decision-making. Our colleagues away from I work in reconnaissance, and I’m regularly deployed the battlefield support us massively by making the in different theatres of operation, increasingly in most of every possible source of information – put urban environments. Our battlefield is intercon- simply, we see them as our guardian angels ! nected and complex because the number and variety of threats have grown. The main reason for this is easier access to technologies and systems that used to be restricted to state-controlled armed forces. We have a lot of physical and digital sensors supplying us with vast quantities of data all the time. They’re monitored remotely by my civilian colleagues, all IT experts, who also handle the transfer of raw and pre-analysed data. Manipulating information is getting easier and easier, and the repercussions this has on public opinion can’t be ignored. This is why it is of vital strategic importance for us to validate and authenticate each piece of information. ituation analysis and re c onnaissan e analysis S ituation Basel, Fabrikstrasse Team Delta, University Hospital situation 22:45 22:46 report !

Team Alfa reporting ! Handling casualties with We’re in the Medical Corps ! Fabrikstrasse, suspicious activity detected ... deploying Team Bravo ! reconnaissance What’s happening drones. in the city centre ?

Meanwhile, in the city centre

Team Bravo reporting !

Multiple collisions ! Assisting civilians ! >Drone Tango >Movement detected, to Team Delta_ thermal camera Basel, University Hospital activated_ >Transferring data_ 22:47

Team Alfa reporting ! Hospital

zone secured !

Will join Team Delta as backup !

Lausanne 22:48

22:49

Delta to HQ ! Enemies located ! They’re using optical camo !!! Request backup ASAP !

To be continued ... than wouldhavebeenthecaseinpast. tions. We’re moreindependentandself-organising nents as well as complex and changing battle condi- structure, sowecanadapttoagile,asymmetricoppo but mainlyinurbanareas.We rarely use staticinfra- I’m deployedinarangeofdifferent environments, carrying theheavystuff. upgrade someofourkit,androbotsfollowusaround logistics, weuserapidprototypingtorepair and for urbancombat.To minimiseourdependencyon new vehicles and smart weapons designed mainly of renewable energy to power them. We’ve got uniforms, sowecountonthesupplyandstorage connectivity hingesondigitalsensorsbuiltintoour working togetherinlocationsacrosstheglobe.This to therestofmyteam,butalsomanyexperts I’m more or less permanently connected, not only - accessed remotelybyauthenticatedusers. our weaponssystems,areinterconnectedandcan be as possible.Ourphysicalanddigitalsensors,just like arrive atanobjective,optimisedsolutionasquickly each decision’s backedupbyartificialintelligenceto analysed continuously. Ineveryphaseofoperations, diate surroundings. These data are processed and data fromthefieldtohelpmeunderstandmyimme weapons systems that give me protection and gather work anywhereintheworld.Theyremotelycontrol that mostofmycolleagueshavetheflexibilityto Mobility’s socentraltowhatwedothesedays -

Mobility Basel, Fabrikstrasse 22:49 Fire !

Team Alfa approaching Targets Fabrikstrasse for backup acquired ... by thermal imaging ...

Team Delta ! Begin attack on my signal ...

In ... Aaargh !

Target 1 down.

3 1

Team Alfa ! Take down 2 target 2 ! Touching down ! Intelligence Centre 22:50 Alfa to Central Command. Targets neutralised on Intelligence Fabrikstrasse. Team Echo to HQ ! Confirm mercena- Octo group ries, Octo group. is known to work for terrorists.

Central Command

Terrorists... The blackout in Lausanne must be linked to the one in Basel.

Ugh

! Oh, Bomb no ! Colonel detonated ... in Lausanne !!!

To be continued ... to ourdoctorshelpusensureadequatetreatment. tions outinthefield.3Dprintersandadirectvideo link so wecanprovidefirstaidimmediatelyduring opera My wholeteamhas been givenbasicmedicaltraining, carrying heavyloads. concentration byreducingthefatiguecaused by in myday-to-daywork.Itimprovesstaminaand me thebestpossiblesupport.Iuseanexoskeleton logical andmedicaldata,whichareanalysedtooffer Sensors permanently capture all my personal physio and mylifeexpectancyhasincreasedsignificantly. of myvitalsigns,I’mabletofightmoreeffectively, range oftechnological advancesandremote tracking varying length and intensity. Nowadays, thanks to a As asoldier, I’mregularlydeployedinoperationsof - - well asphysiologicalsupportthroughouttheirmission. and indifficultsituationstoreceivepsychological as It’s becomeessentialforourcolleaguesworkingremotely

Physiological and medical support Lausanne, Station Sending data via CHUV * It’s a hoax ! 22:51 medical 22:52 network The terrorists ! are spreading misinformation

Team Charlie Dr Duchamp on social media to Command ! to Charlie ! ! I’m uploading I’ve got treatment a casualty instructions from the for you ! blast ! Biosensors The power company in place ! confirms that the Under- stood. Lausanne blackout isn’t Thanks. Central linked to the attack ! Command It’s a knock-on effect of the terrorist blackout Argh in Basel ! ... Central Command Central to Charlie, Command drone delivering Lausanne, medical Team Charlie, near the station Second bomb supplies in found ! 1 minute 17. where are you ? Charlie Bomb Disposal to OK ! Command ! Defusing... al Vaud, Lausanne

* CHUV : University Hospit

But ... no, Attention hang on Charlie ! ! Social network chatter also suggests enemy presence in Lausanne ...

Intelligence Centre * ET H Z Meanwhile, at ETHZ * : E idgenössisc h e T ec nisc Hoc sc ule Z ü r ic

>Medevac Drone 3 departing for Charlie Bomb Geneva_ Disposal, this is >ETA in 12 minutes Professor Bäcker 37_ at ETH Zurich. I have eyes on Damn it, your bomb, sending I’ve never you the sequence seen to defuse it. wiring like this before ! Request Team technical Charlie support ! to Geneva, confir- ming patient departure.

Thanks !

Basel, city centre Lausanne station 22:55 22:54 Charlie to HQ, first aid administered ! AVs * taking casualties Team Bravo ! to the hug *. Targets Second bomb located, defused, request securing perimeter. backup ASAP !

To be continued ... * Avs : autonomous vehicles * HUG : Geneva University Hospitals Our armed forces have become more flexible and effective thanks to this synergy between humans and machines. It’s true that we have to spend more time on maintenance these days, but it’s a price I’m a connected soldier, constantly interacting with a worth paying to keep the team working at its wide range of systems at varying distances. My capa- best. All soldiers are becoming more independent bilities have been enhanced significantly since the because they’re better informed and entrusted advent of intuitive, personalised human-machine with more responsibility, which has allowed the interfacing. All repetitive tasks and those requiring a armed forces to become less hierarchical and thus lot of manual labour are performed by machines. My more agile and responsive. Today’s soldiers aren’t work now centres on overseeing these machines and just there to carry out orders, they’re individuals handling tasks that still need human input, such as capable of making tactical decisions, prioritising decision-making, strategic situation analysis and liaising orders and working out the best course of action in with civilians. I operate in synergy with the machines – a given situation. In view of this seamless interaction we’ve become inseparable. They allow me to conduct between humans and machines, more effective fast and detailed assessments of the risks arising from armed forces and soldiers with more responsibility my decisions with the aid of real-time scenarios. My for their own actions, the introduction of smart digital assistant helps me to evaluate, sort and analyse combat equipment also brings the hope that loss c ing the constant stream of information I receive. of life can be minimised when conflicts occur. c hine interfa H uman-ma Wait, AS 09 ! Delay departure >Autonomous Support 09 30 seconds. Close to Nusshof loaded_ >Route 22:56 >Departing in 12 seconds_ calculated_

I’m putting some hot drinks in for the civvies !

It’s going to be a long night ! Under- stood, Team Bravo ...

Did you all >Medpack hear that ? Drone 3 departing_

Send an AI * support to Team Bravo with supplies geared to urban combat ! OK, how can we stop the enemy I’m talking using optical right in the camo ? middle of Basel !

* >AI 23X to Logistics Team Rhine 22:57 Basel, city centre Sierra_ Not far from the 22:58 Tinguely Museum >Use jamming for 100% effectiveness_ !?

>Launching hydrone_

Optical camo disabled, >Hydrone 9 take them in position_ down !

Intelligence Centre

>AI 23X to Command_ >Probability Team calculation Bravo to HQ, complete_ Central targets >Origin of Command down ! attack: Müstair, Graubünden, 46.627045 North, 10.454172 West_

Good >Jamming activated_ work, >Range 4 km_ Bravo !

To be continued ... our cohesionandconfidenceineachother. inter-army training exercisesareheldtostrengthen the samerulesofengagementasourallies.Regular interests of total interoperability. We observe exactly language. Ingeneral,everything’s standardisedinthe neous translators so everyone can speak intheir native situations. We useshareddataformatsandsimulta- We’re constantlyintouchwithouralliescombat automates decision-makingprocesses. with eachother. Artificialintelligencesupports and ational decisionsarebasedonourdirectinteraction monitored andanalysedallthetime,ouroper a fastandrobustresponse.Assoldiers,we’rebeing computers, which are all interconnected to ensure defence. We engage in combat remotely through our allow ustobemoreresponsiveandmountaneffective commonplace, andourindependencemobility rather than on a military base. Cyber warfare is now My colleaguesandIarestationedinaciviliansetting - to beablerevokeitatanymoment. welcome asinteroperabilityis,therefore,weneed as ournewenemiescouldinfiltratesystems.As been socrucialtooursuccessintoamajorvulnerability enemies. Thatwouldturntheinteroperabilitythat’s today’s partnerscould suddenlybecometomorrow’s The stakescanchangefastatthegloballevel,and That beingsaid,westillneedtobeonourguard.

Interoperability Affirmative, 500 km above Central Command Colonel Feist. the Earth 22:59

>Transferring Is this about data_ the enemy camp >Grid reference : ? 46.627045 North, 10.454117 West_ This is Colonel Feist Yes. speaking. Müstair Police, are you We’ve been receiving following on me the intranet. ? The entire area’s secured.

Airstrike X68K 2 minutes by air to HQ, Müstair >Enemy camp from Payerne target defined ! ETA in 6 minutes. confirmed_ >Movement detected_

Engage !

Bern 23:01 >Downloading facial recognition data_ Airstrike X68K to HQ ! Targets down.

Müstair Police to Colonel Feist, visual confirmation : enemies down !

Central All units ! Command Enemy appears to be 23:05 neutralised ! Under- X68K Prioritise restoring stood engaging ! ... healthcare and comms Anti-personnel It’s going to be a infrastructure ! long night ! micromissiles armed ! Work with Good luck ! the civilians !

Müstair Police Station Phew 23:04 ...

Target area clear, Airstrike X68K !

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Feuerwerkerstrasse 39 CH-3602 Thun phone : + 41 58 468 28 00 fax : + 41 58 468 28 41 mail : [email protected] web : www.armasuisse.ch/wt ISBN: 978-3-9524890-8-6