Assessment of the Combined Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes in Lusatia, Central Europe

Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use changes in Lusatia, Central Europe

Ina Pohle1, Hagen Koch2, Anne Gädeke1, Uwe Grünewald1 1Brandenburg University of Technology, Chair of Hydrology and Water Resources Management 2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD Climate Impacts and Vulnerability

Ina.Pohle@tu-cottbus.de

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 2013Assessment International of the combined effects of climateSWAT and land Conference, use change in Lusatia, Central Toulouse Europe Background Berlin Warsaw Lignite mining and water management Prague in Lusatia Discharges increased, groundwater Dahme Spree depression cone Strong anthropogenic influence on the rainfall – runoff – relations Lusatian Neisse Schwarze Elster Town River Active lignite mine Ground water depression cone, Lower Lusatian Mining District

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 2 Background Berlin Warsaw

Lusatia: continental climate Prague

Relatively high summer temperature, Dahme Spree low precipitation

Negative climatic water balance Lusatian Neisse Schwarze Elster

Catchment A [km²] Alt. [m] Annual means 1961-1990 T [°C] P [mm] CWB [mm] Schwarze Elster 5,700 120 8.81 649 -81 Dahme 2,000 54 8.71 600 -97 Spree 6,200 110 8.73 640 -59 (Gr. Traenke) Lusatian Neisse 2,100 330 7.12 892 212 (Steinbach) Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 3 Background Potential future challenges

Potential climate change: Potential land use changes: • Higher temperature • Less mining activities • Less precipitation • More energy crops

Aim: Quantification of potential impacts on water balance components

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 4 Approach Model set up of the Soil and Water Integrated Model, SWIM (Krysanova et al. 1998, 2000), by model parameter regionalization

Combined climate and land use change impact study

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 5 Approach Model set up of the Soil and Water Integrated Model, SWIM (Krysanova et al. 1998, 2000), by model parameter regionalization

Calibration of SWIM for subcatchments without influences of mining and water management

Identification of the most sensitive model parameters (groundwater recession, corr. saturated conductivity, corr. potential evaporation, riparian zone param.)

Model parameter regionalization: physical similarity, spatial proximity

Quasi-natural water balance components (no water management, no mining discharges)

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 6 Approach

Combined climate and land use change impact study

Statistical Analogue Resampling Scheme STAR scenarios • Mining activities • assuming temperature increase of 0 K, 2 K, 3 K until • Energy crops 2055 • 100 realizations each

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 7 Climate change scenarios Change in temperature T, precipitation P, climatic water balance CWB Scenario (2051-55, median of realizations), Reference (1961-90, observed climate)

Scenario Schwarze Elster Dahme Spree Lusatian Neisse ΔT [°C] STAR 0K 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 STAR 2K 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 STAR 3K 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 ΔP [mm] STAR 0K -7 -7 -4 17 STAR 2K -41 -30 -39 -46 STAR 3K -59 -46 -67 -77 ΔCWB [mm] STAR 0K -40 -35 -37 -24 STAR 2K -193 -173 -187 -206 STAR 3K -257 -229 -247 -281

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 8 Land use change scenarios: Energy crops • Extreme scenarios considering a complete change of the dominating crop (reference: winter wheat)

• Dynamical crop growth based on climate parameters

• Crop parameters taken from SWIM crop database

• Nutrients – standard parameters, no calibration

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 9 Combined climate and land use change impacts Percentage change in water balance components of STAR and energy crop scenarios

actual evapotranspiration ETa, discharge Q and groundwater recharge GWR Scenario (2051-55, median of realizations, crop as specified), Reference (1961-90, observed climate, winter wheat) Scenario Schwarze Elster Dahme Spree Lusatian Neisse (Grosse Traenke) (Steinbach)

Crop STAR ΔETa ΔQ ΔGWR ΔETa ΔQ ΔGWR ΔETa ΔQ ΔGWR ΔETa ΔQ ΔGWR Winter 0K 1 -13 -19 2 -17 -20 1 -12 -18 3 1 -3 Wheat 2K 5 -48 -48 5 -48 -47 4 -46 -50 9 -27 -33 3K 3 -56 -54 3 -54 -54 2 -55 -57 8 -33 -40

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 10 Combined climate and land use change impacts Percentage change in water balance components of STAR and energy crop scenarios

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 11 Combined climate and land use change impacts Percentage change in water balance components of STAR and energy crop scenarios

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 12 Combined climate and land use change impacts Percentage change in water balance components of STAR and energy crop scenarios

Crop STAR ΔETa ΔQ ΔGWR ΔETa ΔQ ΔGWR ΔETa ΔQ ΔGWR ΔETa ΔQ ΔGWR Winter 0K 1 -13 -19 2 -17 -20 1 -12 -18 3 1 -3 Wheat 2K 5 -48 -48 5 -48 -47 4 -46 -50 9 -27 -33 3K 3 -56 -54 3 -54 -54 2 -55 -57 8 -33 -40 Silage 0K 1 -12 -17 1 -13 -17 1 -9 -13 1 5 1 Maize 2K 7 -55 -54 6 -55 -53 6 -56 -57 11 -30 -36 3K 5 -64 -60 5 -62 -59 5 -67 -66 12 -38 -44 Oilseed 0K -5 23 13 -4 21 13 3 36 29 -6 19 16 Rape 2K -1 -18 -21 -1 -15 -17 2 -5 -6 -1 -6 -11 3K -3 -28 -29 -2 -24 -25 -6 -14 -18 -3 -12 -18 Sunflower 0K -1 -6 -13 0 -9 -13 -1 -2 -7 -1 7 2 2K 4 -46 -47 4 -46 -53 3 -43 -46 7 -24 -30 3K 4 -57 -55 3 -55 -54 2 -56 -57 7 -31 -38 Sorghum 0K 0 -7 -14 0 -10 -14 -1 -3 -9 -1 8 5 2K 6 -53 -52 6 -52 -52 5 -52 -54 8 -25 -32 3K 5 -64 -61 5 -56 -60 5 -65 -66 9 -33 -40 Sorghum 0K -1 -4 -12 0 -7 -12 -2 1 -5 -2 10 7 Hay 2K 5 -50 -50 5 -51 -50 4 -49 -51 7 -23 -30 Pohle, I., Koch,3 H.,K Gädeke,5 A., Grünewald,-62 -59 U. 4 -59 -58 4 -62 -63 7 -31 -38 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 13 Combined climate and land use change impacts Percent change in mean monthly discharge Q, Dahme River catchment, scenario (2051-55, 100 realizations, crop as specified) vs. reference (1961-1990, winter wheat)

STAR 0K STAR 2K STAR 3K

100 in Q in

Winter Wheat change

0 Percent -100 J F M A M J J A S O N D year

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 14 Combined climate and land use change impacts Percent change in mean monthly discharge Q, Dahme River catchment, scenario (2051-55, 100 realizations, crop as specified) vs. reference (1961-1990, winter wheat)

STAR 0K STAR 2K STAR 3K

100 in Q in

Winter Wheat Silage Maize Oilseed Rape change

0 Percent

-100

100 in Q in

Sunflower Sorghum Sorghum Hay change

0 Percent -100 J F M A M J J A S O N D year J F M A M J J A S O N D year J F M A M J J A S O N D year Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 15 Combined climate and land use change impacts Percentage change in mean monthly discharge Q, Dahme River catchment, scenario (2051-55, median, STAR 2K, crop as specified) vs. reference (1961-1990, observed climate, winter wheat)

Winter wheat Oilseed rape Silage maize Sunflower Sorghum

Sorghum hay Percent change in mean monthly Q mean monthly change in Percent

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 16 Combined climate and land use change impacts Dahme River catchment, 3K, 2055, selected realizations (R.): precipitation P, potential evapotranspiration ETp, actual evapotranspiration ETa, discharge Q

P 150

ETp

100 [mm/Mon]

a a ETa (top), Q (bottom) , , Et

p 50 Winter wheat

ET Oilseed rape P, P, 0 Silage maize F A J A O D R. 3, CWB -638 mm/a Sunflower little rain throughout the year Sorghum

Sorghum hay 10

0 Monthly Monthly Q [m³/s]

Pohle, I., Koch,F H., A Gädeke, J A A., O Grünewald, D U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 17 Combined climate and land use change impacts Dahme River catchment, 3K, 2055, selected realizations (R.): precipitation P, potential evapotranspiration ETp, actual evapotranspiration ETa, discharge Q

P 150 150

ETp

100 100 [mm/Mon]

a a ETa (top), Q (bottom) , , Et

p 50 50 Winter wheat

ET Oilseed rape P, P, 0 0 Silage maize F A J A O D F A J A O D R. 3, CWB -638 mm/a R. 46, CWB -577 mm/a Sunflower little rain throughout the rain in high summer year Sorghum

Sorghum hay 10 10

5 5

0 0 Monthly Monthly Q [m³/s]

Pohle, I., Koch,F H., A Gädeke, J A A., O Grünewald, D U.F A J A O D Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 18 Combined climate and land use change impacts Dahme River catchment, 3K, 2055, selected realizations (R.):

precipitation P, potential evapotranspiration ETp, actual evapotranspiration ETa, discharge Q

P 150 150 150

ETp

100 100 100 [mm/Mon]

a a ETa (top), Q (bottom) , , Et

p 50 50 50 Winter wheat

ET Oilseed rape P, P, 0 0 0 Silage maize F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D R. 3, CWB -638 mm/a R. 46, CWB -577 mm/a R. 85, CWB -87 mm/a Sunflower little rain throughout the rain in high summer year Sorghum

Sorghum hay 10 10 10

5 5 5

0 0 0 Monthly Monthly Q [m³/s]

Pohle, I., Koch,F H., A Gädeke, J A A., O Grünewald, D U.F A J A O D F A J A O D Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 19 Combined climate and land use change impacts Dahme River catchment, 3K, 2055, selected realizations (R.):

precipitation P, potential evapotranspiration ETp, actual evapotranspiration ETa, discharge Q

P 150 150 150

ETp

100 100 100 [mm/Mon]

a a ETa , , Et

p 50 50 50 Winter wheat

Percentage change in crop yield Sorghum hay compared to the reference (1961-1990, observed climate, crop as specified) 120 120 120

80 80 80

40 40 40

0 Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald,0 U. 0 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 20

Change Change incrop [%] yield -40 -40 -40 Combined climate and land use change impacts Percentage change in potential crop yield (limited by temperature and water availability) scenario (median, 2051 – 2055 , crop as specified) vs. reference (1961-1990, observed climate, crop as specified) Scenario Schwarze Elster Dahme Spree, Lusatian Neisse, Crop STAR Grosse Traenke Steinbach Winter Wheat 0K -2 -2 -2 6 2K -10 -10 -10 3 3K -13 -12 -12 2 Silage Maize 0K 4 5 5 9 2K 18 20 22 42 3K 14 17 20 49 Oilseed rape 0K -8 -9 -9 -5 2K -4 -8 -7 -18 3K -1 -2 -2 -17 Sunflower 0K 5 5 6 12 2K 20 22 22 38 3K 24 26 27 47 Sorghum 0K 21 22 22 28 2K 93 102 102 139 3K 117 126 127 192 Sorghum Hay 0K 23 25 25 32 2K 110 119 119 168 3K 139 150 152 237 Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 21 Conclusions • Higher temperature and less precipitation (STAR 2K, STAR 3K)  Decreasing climatic water balance, discharge and groundwater recharge

• High bandwidths of potential changes associated with the realizations of the scenarios

• Change of the dominating crop towards oilseed rape would partly counterbalance climate change impacts on discharge and groundwater recharge

• Crop yield generally increases with temperature and water availability  Higher temperature, less precipitation  Decreasing crop yields: winter wheat, oilseed rape  Increasing crop yields: silage maize, sunflower, sorghum, sorghum hay

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 22 Summary + Outlook

Model set up of the Soil and Water Integrated Model, SWIM, by model parameter regionalization

Combined climate and land use change impact study  Quasi-natural discharge under changing conditions

Long term water management model WBalMo (including mining discharges, water users, reservoirs)  Managed discharges

Water quality modelling (sulphur, iron, pH)

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 23 Selected References

BMELV and BMU. 2009. National Biomass Action Plan for Germany. Biomass and Sustainable Energy Supply.

CEC. 2005. Biomass action plan. Communication from the Comission. Brussels. Commission of the European Communities.

Conradt, T., H. Koch, F. F. Hattermann and F. Wechsung. 2012. Spatially differentiated management-revised discharge scenarios for an integrated analysis of multi-realisation climate and land use scenarios for the Elbe River basin. Reg. Environ. Change. 1-16.

Krysanova, V., Müller-Wohlfeil, D.I. & Becker, A., 1998. Development and test of a spatially distributed hydrological water quality model for mesoscale watersheds. Ecological Modelling, 106(2-3): 261-289.

Krysanova, V., Wechsung, F., Arnold, J., Srinivasan, R. & Williams, J., 2000. SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) User Manual. PIK Report 69. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 239 pp

Orlowsky, B., Gerstengarbe, F.-W. & Werner, P. C. (2008): A resampling scheme for regional climate simulations and its performance compared to a dynamical RCM. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 92 (3-4): 209-223.

Pohle, I., H. Koch and U. Grünewald. 2012. Potential climate change impacts on the water balance of subcatchments of the River Spree, Germany. Advances in Geosciences. 32: 49-53.

Pohle, I., Gädeke, A., Koch, H. & Grünewald, U. (2013): Abschätzung möglicher Folgen des Klimawandels auf die regionalen Wasserressourcen der Lausitz. In: Weingartner, R. und Schädler, B. (Hrsg.): Wasserressourcen im globalen Wandel. Hydrologische Grundlagen – von der Messung zur Anwendung. Beiträge zum Tag der Hydrologie 4. bis 6.April 2013 an der Universität Bern. 113-122.

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe 24 Thank you! Contact: [email protected]

Sunflowers in front of the Welzow Süd open pit lignite mine Picture: © Berliner Morgenpost 2013 The first author was supported by the Brandenburg Ministry of Science, Research and Culture as part of the International Graduate School at Brandenburg University of Technology.

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Regionalization Approach Calibration of SWIM for Satisfactory results subcatchments, 15 model parameters

1) Pulsnitz, Ortrand gauge, 245 km² Hilly area - lowland 2) Mandau, Großschönau gauge, 160 km² Mountainous 4 3) Schwarzer Schöps, Jänkendorf gauge, 125 km² 1 Hilly area 3 4) Weißer Schöps, Särichen gauge, 135 km² Hilly area 2 Active lignite mine River Major catchments Spree Calibration Schwarze Elster 15 model parameters Lusatian Neisse Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 26 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Regionalization Approach Calibration of SWIM for Satisfactory results subcatchments, 15 model Very different parameter sets parameters  Hard to find regionalization approach Sensitive Model Parameters Value range Base flow coefficient 0.3 – 0.4 Correction coefficient for potential evaporation 0.8 – 1.3 Correction coefficient for saturated conductivity 1 – 12 Curve numbers (SCS) (3) 50 – 60 Groundwater recession rate, fast 0.01 – 0.03 Groundwater recession rate, slow 0.00007 – 0.015 Delay factor, groundwater 1-7 Initial groundwater flow 0.02 – 0.2 Routing factors (2) 1 – 1.2 Snow melt temperature 2 – 3 Snow melt rate 2 – 3 Parameter to access routed groundwater flow 0.6 - 1 Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 27 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Regionalization Approach Calibration of SWIM for subcatchments, 15 model parameters

Parameter transfer of respective Results not satisfactory (volume and dynamics) other catchments

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 28 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Regionalization Approach Calibration of SWIM for • Correction coefficient for saturated subcatchments, 15 model conductivity parameters → Dynamics Parameter transfer of respective → Generation of soil maps other catchments → Scale problem • Correction coefficient for potential Identification of the most evapotranspiration sensitive model parameters in → Volume the region → Integrates correction for errors in climate input and simulation of ETP • Tuning factor for groundwater recession rates (2 groundwater layers) → Dynamics → Lack of data concerning groundwater recession • Parameter that allows access of routed groundwater flow in riparian zones → Low flow periods of interior catchments

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 29 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Regionalization Approach Calibration of SWIM for subcatchments, 15 model parameters

Parameter transfer of respective other catchments

Identification of the most sensitive model parameters in the region

Calibration of most sensitive Results parameters for further satisfactory Active lignite mine subcatchments Rivers Major catchments Spree Schwarze Elster Lusatian Neisse Calibration All parameters Most sensitive parameters Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 30 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Regionalization Approach Calibration of SWIM for subcatchments, 15 model • Correction coefficient for saturated parameters conductivity → Spatial proximity Parameter transfer of respective other catchments • Correction coefficient for potential evapotranspiration Identification of the most → Minimization of differences in sensitive model parameters in discharge to N-A-U-Map (pre-mining the region state) within a „reasonable“ range Calibration of most sensitive parameters for further • Tuning factor for groundwater recession subcatchments rates (2 groundwater layers) → Spatial proximity, slope Model parameter regionalisation

(spatial proximity, physical • Parameter that allows access of routed similarity) groundwater flow in riparian zones → Threshold value of slope

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 31 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Regionalization Approach

Digital Terrain Model Climate Station Precipitation Station (ASTER GDEM) 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2

Corr. ETP 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 32 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Regionalization Approach

Spreewald (inland delta)

Groundwater recession α1 Riparian zone 0.6 parameter 0.9 1.0 0.010 0.050 0.100 α 1/ α 2 = 20/1

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 33 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Regionalization Approach Comparison with

• Simulation results of WaSim-ETH and HBV for subcatchments

• Naturalised discharges of the WBalMo Spree-Schwarze Elster

• Water balance components of DIFGA (differenciated hydrograph)

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 34 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Regionalization Approach

• Simulation of an anthropogenically more impacted catchment: Dahme, Prierow gauge station • Model comparison with WaSim-ETH and HBV light

• Significant deviations between observed discharges and the long-term annual mean (especially after 1990) • Model calibration of SWIM not possible

 Assumption: volume of observed discharges not representative

 Regionalization SWIM (3 most sensitive parameters), Calibration WaSim-ETH, HBV light – daily time step considering • Dynamics of observed discharge, • Volume of long-term annual mean (approx.)

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 35 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Regionalization Approach

• Simulation of an anthropogenically more impacted catchment: Dahme, Prierow gauge station • Model comparison with WaSim-ETH and HBV light

1999-2006 1999-2006 1961-1990

2.0 2.0 2.0

1.5 1999-2006 1.5 1.5 1961-1990

1.0 1.0 1.0

Discharge m³/s Discharge 0.5 0.5 0.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1999 2001 2003 2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Year

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 36 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Regionalization Approach Comparison with observed discharges, naturalised discharges of the “Ländermodell” WBalMo Spree/Schwarze Elster and long term pre-mining observed discharges

Schwarze Elster, Loeben Gauge Station

Discharge m³/s Discharge

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Year

Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 37 AssessmentUsing catchment of the similarity combined for model effects parameter of climate regionalization and land use in highlychange anthropogenically in Lusatia, Central impacted Europe catchments in Lusatia Combined climate and land use change impacts Percentage change in potential crop yield (limited by temperature and water availability), q25, q50 and q75 of the scenario (2050 – 2055) compared to the reference (1961-1990, observed climate, crop as specified) Scenario Schwarze Elster Dahme Spree Lusatian Neisse

Crop STAR q25 q50 q75 q25 q50 q75 q25 q50 q75 q25 q50 q75 Winter 0K -4 -2 0 -4 -2 0 -4 -2 0 3 6 8 Wheat 2K -13 -10 -8 -12 -10 -8 -12 -10 -8 1 3 5 3K -15 -13 -10 -15 -12 -10 -14 -12 -10 -1 2 4 Silage 0K 2 4 7 2 5 7 2 5 8 3 9 13 Maize 2K 14 18 22 17 20 23 19 22 25 38 42 45 3K 9 14 17 14 17 21 17 20 24 45 49 53 Oilseed 0K -13 -8 -3 -14 -9 -2 -13 -9 -3 -12 -5 -1 rape 2K -10 -4 -1 -12 -8 -4 -12 -7 -4 -23 -18 -14 3K -5 -1 7 -8 -2 3 -8 -2 3 -20 -17 -14 Sunflower 0K 1 5 7 2 5 8 2 6 8 5 12 15 2K 18 20 23 19 22 25 20 22 26 35 38 42 3K 22 24 27 23 26 28 25 27 30 43 47 50 Sorghum 0K 10 21 28 12 22 31 12 22 32 14 28 41 2K 85 93 105 91 102 115 92 102 113 123 139 268 3K 107 117 123 116 126 134 117 127 135 175 192 207 Sorghum 0K 11 23 32 13 25 35 14 25 35 18 32 50 Hay 2K 98 110 124 105 119 137 107 119 135 148 168 192 3K 129 139 147 138 150 161 141 152 161 217 237 256 Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 38 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Land use change scenarios: Mining activities Scenarios considering groundwater depression cone in the Lower Lusatian mining district for 5 year periods, 0 assumption: groundwater depression cone does not contribute to subsurface and groundwater flow

Differentiation with stronger environmental protection

Globalization without stronger environmental protection

-50 depression cone compared 2005 to compared cone depression

-100

Percentage change in the area of the groundwater groundwater the area of the change in Percentage 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 5-year period Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 39 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Combined climate and land use change impacts Schwarze Elster River catchment, outlet Percentage change in mean annual discharge Only climate change Climate change +

100 100 Differentiation with stronger environmental protection

50 50

0 0

-50 -50

-100 -100

Percentage change in mean annual Q mean annual change in Percentage 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 5-year period 5-year-period Pohle, I., Koch, H., Gädeke, A., Grünewald, U. 40 Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe Combined climate and land use change impacts Schwarze Elster River catchment, Lauchhammer gauge Percentage change in mean annual discharge Only climate change Climate change +

100 100 Differentiation with stronger environmental protection

50 50

0 0

-50 -50

-100 -100