MULTILEVEL NETWORKS IN BRITISH AND GERMAN FOREIGN POLICY, 1990-95 A Ph.D. Thesis submitted by Elke Krahmann 2000 University of London London School of Economics UMI Number: U127079 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U127079 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 7 m<£S£ 5 f 7 goo ‘A r ~7166U^ Abstract In the 1990s a consensus has emerged in international relations and foreign policy analysis according to which it has become necessary to move from single-level approaches towards multilevel theorising. The thesis suggests that the network approach is especially suited for the development of a multilevel theory of foreign policy decision-making because it has already been successfully applied to national, transnational and international levels of analysis. The thesis expands the scope of the network approach by proposing a ‘multilevel network theory’ that combines all three levels. Moreover, the thesis addresses the widespread criticism that network models fail to explain the process of decision-making by putting forward testable hypotheses regarding the exercise of pressure and the changing preferences among political actors. The aim of the approach is to examine how networks among national, transnational and international actors influence foreign policy making. The thesis suggests that the outcome of the decision-making process can be explained by the formation of a majority coalition in favour of a particular policy. In order to test the proposed multilevel network theory, the thesis examines four cases of foreign policy decision-making after the end of the Cold War. The case studies include: (1) the decision of the British government to support air strikes in Bosnia, (2) the abolition of the tactical air-to-surface missile project by the British government in 1993, (3) the first despatch of German Tornados to Bosnia, and (4) the reduction of German export controls on goods with civil and military applications (‘dual-use’). By analysing cases in which two Western European governments had the final decision-making authority, the thesis illustrates how ‘national’ foreign policy decisions can be the consequences of domestic, transnational and international pressure. 2 In memory of my grandfather Wilhelm Karasinski (1908-2000) 3 Acknowledgements 1 would like to thank my family and friends for their help in every possible respect; Prof. William Wallace, Prof. Helga Haftendorn, Dr. Daphne Josselin, the members of the annual PhD review panel and the Foreign Policy workshop at the LSE, the members of the Graduiertenkolleg ‘Das Neue Europa’ of the Free University Berlin, and the discussants of various sections of this thesis at the Graduate Conference of the DVPW in Amoldshain, the BISA Conference in Leeds, the Joint ISA-ECPR International Relations Conference in Vienna and the ISA Annual Convention in Los Angeles for their critical questions and advice; the Department of Politics at the University of Cologne and the European University Institute in Florence for free access to their resources; Daniel Feam of the Foreign Office, John Dowie and Anthony Dewick of the DTI, Ian Gambles of the Treasury, David Williams, Mike Davies and Colin Davenport of the MoD for interviews on the structure of the British foreign policy network; the Deutsche Forschungsgesellschaft (DFG), the Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD) and the British Council for financial support; and the members of the ESRC project ‘Security Governance in the New Europe’ for their trust and patience. 4 Contents 1. From National Foreign Policy to Multilevel Networks ..................................................11 2. Multilevel Network Theory ............................................................................................ 40 3. Case I: The Authorization of Air Strikes in Bosnia ...................................................... 81 4. Case II: The Abolition of the Tactical Airt-to-Surface Missile Project ......................127 5. Case III: The Despatch of Tornados to Bosnia ...........................................................175 6. Case IV: The Relaxation of Dual-Use Export Regulations .......................... 224 7. Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 273 Primary Sources 295 Secondary Sourdtes.* 300 Bibliography 303 Appendices: Appendix 1 ‘British Foreign Policy Network, 1990-95’ 325 Appendix 2 ‘German Foreign Policy Network, 1990-95’ 342 Appendix 3 ‘Pressure for the Authorization of Air Strikes in Bosnia’ 364 Appendix 4 ‘Pressure for the Abolition of the TASM Project’ 378 Appendix 5 ‘Pressure for the Despatch of German Tornados to Bosnia’ 387 Appendix 6 ‘Pressure for a Reduction of German Dual-Use Export Controls’ 395 5 List of Tables Chapter 1 Table 1.1 Case Studies 36 Chapter 2 Table 2.1 Matrix of Dyadic Relations 46 Table 2.2 Types o f Power Relations 47 Table 2.3 Combined Power Relations 51 Table 2.4 Rational A ction 66 Chapter 3 Table 3.1 Preference Changes: 15May - 8 August 1992 90 Table 3.2 Preference Changes: 8 August - 29 October 1992 101 Table 3.3 Preference Changes: 30 October 1992 - 19 January 1993 109 Table 3.4 Preference Changes: 19 January - 30 April 1993 115 Table 3.5 Descriptive Statistics 120 T able 3.6 Timing o f Preference Changes 121 Chapter 4 Table 4.1 Preference Changes: 4 May 1990 - 11 August 1991 134 Table 4.2 Preference Changes: 11 August - 14 November 1991 151 Table 4.3 Preference Changes: 14 November 1991 - 9 October 1992 157 Table 4.4 Preference Changes: 9 October 1992 - 18 October 1993 164 Table 4.5 Descriptive Statistics 169 Table 4.6 Timing o f Preference Changes 170 Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Preference Changes: 1 January -12 June 1994 182 Table 5.2 Preference Changes: 12 June - 9 December 1994 192 Table 5.3 Preference Changes: 10-20 December 1994 204 Table 5.4 Preference Changes: 20 December 1994 -30 June 1995 210 Table 5.5 Descriptive Statistics 220 T able 5.6 Timing of Preference Changes 22 1 Chapter 6 Table 6.1 Preference Changes: 14 February 1992 -1 January 1993 233 Table 6.2 Preference Changes: 1 January - 5 December 1993 244 Table 6.3 Preference Changes: 5 December 1993 - 9 December 1994 253 Table 6.4 Descriptive Statistics 268 T able 6.5 Timing o f Preference Changes 269 Conclusion Table 7.1 Average Pressure in Cross-Case Comparison 275 Table 7.2 Blocking Strategy 280 Table 7.3 Descriptive Statistics (Cumulative) 282 6 List of Graphs Chapter 3 Graph 3.1 Frequency / Probability 118 Graph 3.2 No Change 119 Graph 3.3 Unclear or Undecided 119 Graph 3.4 Change 119 Graph 3.5 Blocked 122 Chapter 4 Graph 4.1 Frequency /Probability 167 Graph 4.2 No Change 168 Graph 4.3 Unclear or Undecided 168 Graph 4.4 Change 168 Graph 4.5 Blocked 171 Chapter 5 Graph 5.1 Frequency / Probability 218 Graph 5.2 No Change 219 Graph 5.3 Unclear or Undecided 219 Graph 5.4 Change 219 Graph 5.5 Blocked 221 Chapter 6 Graph 6.1 Frequency / Probability 266 Graph 6.2 No Change 267 Graph 6.3 Unclear or Undecided 267 Graph 6.4 Change 267 Conclusion Graph 7.1 Frequency / Probability 276 Graph 7.2 Probability Estimate 276 Graph 7.3 No Change 277 Graph 7.4 Change 278 Graph 7.5 Unclear or Undecided 279 Graph 7.6 Blocked 280 7 Abbreviations in Text BDI Federation of German Industries CDU Christian Democratic Union CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy CND Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament COCOM Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls CSU Christian Social Union DGB German Labour Union Association DIHT German Chambers of Commerce and Industry DTI Department of Trade and Industry EAPC Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council EDIG European Defence Industry Group FDP Free Democratic Party NACC North Atlantic Cooperation Council NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OSCE Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe PDS Party of Democratic Socialism PfP Partnership for Peace SPD Social Democratic Party TASM Tactical Air-to-Surface Missile UN United Nations UNICE Union of Industrial and Employer’s Confederation of Europe US United States of America VDMA German Association of Machinery and Plant Manufacturers WEU Western European Union 8 Abbreviations in Tables and Appendices Au Austria Be Belgium BR Bundesrat BT Bundestag BVG Federal Constitutional Court (Germany) Ca Canada Cab Cabinet (Germany) cdu/csu Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union parliamentary party CE Chancellor of Exchequer (UK) Cha German Chancellor CM Chancellor’s Office Minister (Germany) end Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament Coa Coalition Meeting (Germany) COf Chancellor’s Office (Germany) Com Committees con Conservative parliamentary party De Denmark Dm Defence Ministry (Germany) DM Defence Minister (Germany) DS Defence Secretary (UK) Dti Department of Trade and Industry (UK) Em Economics Ministry (Germany) EM Economics Minister (Germany) EP European Parliament EU European Union EU-CM European Union Council of Ministers EU-Co