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UNIT 1 REVISION GUIDE 1. Democracy and Representation 2. Political Parties 3. Electoral Systems 4. Voting Behaviour and the Media

Unit 1.1- Democracy and Representation

1.1 Current systems of democracy in the UK

Democracy: Greek word meaning people rule. Defined by Lincoln in 1863 ‘Government by the people, of the people and for the people’

Liberal Democracy: When a democracy has pluralism, and good rights protection.

Features and examples of Direct Democracy and Advantages/Disadvantages  When there is no distinction between the Government and the Governed, expressing opinions themselves.  Seen in its purest form in Ancient Athens and the Swiss Cantons.  In the UK it can be seen through referendums (EU in 2016, 2014, AV voting system 2011), the 2015 Recall of MPs Act and petitions. Normal people expressing opinions outside of elections.

Advantages Disadvantages Gives equal weight to all votes, unlike a representative Impractical in large, heavily populated modern states system where varying sizes of constituencies mean that where decision making needs to be quick and is votes do not have equal value complicated Encourages participation as citizens will feel they make Many people will not want to or will be qualified an impact enough to take part in decision making- with some issues being too complex Removes the need for representatives who can Open to manipulation as some voters will be easily led sometimes fail in their duty and too emotional Purest form of democracy meaning an increase in Leads to tyranny of the majority, minorities will always legitimacy be ignored It can work in a modern context- referendums and Can undermine elected representatives who are usually Swiss cantons. more professional and educated in political issues.

Features and examples of Representative Democracy and Advantages/Disadvantages  Where people are not involved in every decision but rather pick a representative who will make decisions on their behalf.  Examples in the UK: Represented by MP, MEP, Councilor, Mayor and Assembly Members.  Can also be represented by Pressure Groups and Political Parties.  Representative Democracy relies on constituencies where citizens pick their representative. Constituents therefore expect their representative to represent them. Because they are elected, they can be legitimate, and if they don’t represent well they can be held accountable at the next election Advantages Disadvantages Only practical system in a modern state May lead to reduced participation as citizens let representatives make decisions Politicians form parties and ensure there is a clear Parties and Pressure Groups are often run by elite choice, aided by Pressure Groups, there is a pluralist members of society- pursuing their own agendas not democracy of many choices.` actually representing the people Reduces chance of the tyranny of the majority as Minorities still in danger as politicians who want to be representatives can look our for under-represented elected will side with the majority groups Elections allow representatives to be held to count for Politicians have teams of media campaigners to avoid decisions accountability and our elections in the UK are every 5 years Politicians are in theory better informed to make Politicians can become corrupt and incompetent and momentous decisions betray their electorate

What is a good democracy?- use these to analyse UK democracy  A peaceful transition of power  Free and fair elections  Widespread Participation  Freedom of expression and information  Freedom of association  Protection of rights and liberties  Rule of law and an independent judiciary  Accountable Government.  All citizens well represented

How democratic is the UK? Good Features Negative Features Peaceful transition of power- election losses are never Our voting system FPTP is not proportional so minority contested and do not result in violence views are ignored (UKIP 2015) Representation is improved by our devolved institutions Parliaments sovereignty means that citizens rights can with , Wales and N Ireland always be overruled Elections are largely free and fair and in secret- universal are unelected suffrage We have an independent judiciary which uphold the rule Much of the media is owned by wealthy unaccountable of law and check the Government business and can sway elections Turnout and participation is increasing Participation crisis of recent decades We have a free media that can challenge politicians Money is still very important in our system helping political parties and pressure groups succeed We have a pluralist democracy- there are numerous Suffrage can still be reformed- votes at 16 options of Parties and Pressure Groups to support

Is there a participation crisis? Yes No Turnout at elections has greatly reduced: averaging Election Turnouts are improving since lowpoint of 59% in nearly 75% between 1979 and 1997, now closer to 65%. 2001, to 69% in 2017 (has gone down in 2019) 2019 saw a reduction again to 67% Party membership has also greatly reduced with 4% of Recent referendums have shown that on important the electorate being members in 1980 compared to 1% issues where voting can be seen to make a difference today turnout increases- 84% for Scottish independence and 72% for EU Referendum Turnout is especially poor at a younger level: 58% in Political Party membership is increasing. In wake of 2017 for 18-24, and 47% in 2019! Corbynism Labour is now over 500,000 and SNP more than quadrupled beyween 2013 and 2016 The new elections may not be helping- 27% turnout for E-Democracy is increasing in popularity with 38 Degrees Police and Crime Commissioners in 2016 and less than petitions beginning to get more and more signatures- 30% for Metropolitan Mayors 3.8 million for a second EU Referendum- 6 million signatures for revoking Article 50

What reforms are there?

 Votes at 16- the belief that but allowing 16/17 year olds to vote it will increase level of political awareness and ensure that young people are more informed and passionate for voting. Some argue that it will not work, and low youth turnout would continue.  More E-Democracy- belief voting could be made easier with polling day being too much hassle for many people in the  Compulsory Voting- belief that voting should be compulsory, fining those who don’t. This is used in Belgium where turnout is always above 80%. Some argue this would not increase passion and is also undemocratic  More referendums- belief that the high turnouts of Scotland referendums show that they are popular and will ensure participation doesn’t reduce. However, these two were very important the AV referendum of 2011 had a turnout of 42%.

These ones will come up later  Change Voting system  Get rid of House of Lords  More devolution  Recall elections

1.2 A wider franchise and debates over suffrage

How has suffrage changed?

Votes at 16 for and against (now have the vote in Scotland and Wales!): For Against With the increase in youth engagement and in the wake 16/17 year olds are too young to make mature rational of Brexit, young people are better informed than ever decisions. before 18-24 year old turnout is currently very low, this may Many issues are too complex for young people to encourage them to vote, by engaging them early; ¾ understand. voted in Scottish referendum. If you are old enough to marry, join the army and have Very few pay tax, so don’t have a stake in society sex; you should be able to vote. Could help to balance out of the old- over The young are too radical as they have too little life 80% of 70+ voted Tory. experience Many issues will affect 16-17 year olds more than other Turnout is usually very low among the young : 58% in parts of the electorate. 2017 for 18-24, and 47% in 2019!

Compulsory Voting for and against: For Against Forces voters, especially younger voters to engage with It is a violation of civil liberties, we should have the right and learn about politics to not take part. It will increase turnout and therefore increase the It will force people to vote meaning many ill informed legitimacy of any Government decisions will be made It will ensure all sections of society vote, meaning It will cost far too much to create and enforce system representatives have to design policies for all, not just the groups that tend to vote It could be argued that it is a duty to vote, so you should It will favour famous and large parties, as uniformed be obliged to do it not forced people will vote for them

Votes for Prisoners For Against Removes a civic duty from prisoners, making Those who commit a crime against society should lose rehabilitation harder their right to have a say in it. There is no evidence that losing the right o vote acts The threat of losing the vote helps to stop crime as a deterrent The right to vote is a fundamental right and should not Would undermine the principle of justice be able to be removed European Convention of Human Rights said it was a Prisoners are concentrated in the constituency of breach of rights prisons, giving them disproportionate say in elections

1.3 Pressure groups and other influences Types of Pressure Groups:

 Sectional: represent a section of society, so fight many issues- Countryside Alliance.  Promotional: support and focus on one cause- CND  Inside: have a link through membership or ideology to the Government- NFU and DEFRA  Outsider: are separate to the Government- Greenpeace  Social Movement: Are looser in organisation and have much wider goals- Black Lives Matter

Functions of a Pressure Group:  To represent- British Stammering Association  To hold the Government to account- and British Bill of Rights  To provide expertise on laws- NFU and DEFRA  To educate- Making Votes Matter  To increase participation- ANYONE

Methods of a Pressure Group:  Direct Action- Student Protests in 2010, Black Lives Matter protests 2020  Lobbying MPs- Liberty’s campaign against the British Bill of Rights  Legal Challenges- Countryside Alliance challenged Fox Hunting ban in High Court, Anti-Brexit groups took Article 50 to Supreme Court.  Insider negotiation- NFU have close links with DEFRA.  Protests- People’s Vote March, March against Iraq War.  Media Campaigns- NUT’s 2017 campaign to highlight education cuts

What makes a Pressure Group successful? Factor Example Size  RSPB has over 1.2 million members  but how active are their members?- Cheque-book participation? Finance  Unite Union- 4 million to Labour in 2017  But Methods can be more important Methods  Petition in 2016 stopped of land registry Active  Fathers4Justice Membership  But, can be too active- student protest Government  NFU are an insider group support  CBI and Corporation tax  But.. can change quickly, BMA went against the Tories Achievability  Occupy had a large aim that failed, BMA had simple aim of banning smoking in cars Of Goals with Children  BUT… was the fact the BMA were insiders more important? Public Support  Snowdrop Campaogn in 1996  BUT… Iraq War protest had support

Do pressure groups enhance democracy? Enhance democracy Threaten democracy Pressure Groups help to disperse power: 2016 to stop Pressure Groups can be elitist and concentrate power: privatization of land registry Nissan and factory funding 2017, Richard Desmond being given planning permission in 2020 Pressure Groups educate people on issues: Liberty on Pressure Groups may promote misinformation: Britain Human Rights First Pressure Groups increase participation: Any Group Pressure Groups themselves, may not be democratic: No one elects the leaders of the CBI or BBA Pressure Groups improve representation: Wealth is the key factor that determines the influence, British Stammering Association and Surfers Against so poor groups are denied influence: Sewage. Bernie Ecclestone, Nissan funding, Richard Desmond and Jenrick affair. Pressure Groups help to hold the Government to Pressure groups can use non-democratic means of account: NUT and Tory cuts 2017, Rashford on FSM protest: Student protest 2010-11, Extinction Rebellion 2020, NEU on schools reopening 2020 2019/20

Other types:

 Corporations: Nissan, Formula 1  Lobbyists: PLMR, Bell-Pottinger  Think Tanks: Adam Smith Institute (Tory)  Celebrities: Joanna Lumley (Gurkhas), Jamie Oliver Healthy eating) Marcu Rashford (Free School Meals)

1.4 Rights in context

Key terms: • Common Law: Judge made laws that establish precedence on disputes • Judicial review: When the supreme court or senior judges decide if laws fit the Human Rights Act • Sovereignty: Ultimate power- parliament can make any law. • Civil Liberty: A freedom protected by the Government • Social Right: A human right based on quality of life as opposed to freedoms • Positive right: Right that is protected due to action by the Government • Negative right: Right that is protected by the inaction of the Government • Human rights: Rights you are given due to beign human

How have laws changed to protect rights:  Magna Carta 1215: Imposed various restrictions on the monarchy in order to prevent the arbitrary abuse of power by the monarch  Bill of Rights 1689: Imposed greater limits on the power of the monarchy and set out the rights of parliament- regular elections, free speech and free elections.  European Convention of Human Rights 1953: Government actions had to comply with the ECHR, and could be challenged in the European Courts if broken.  European Court of justice 1973: After Joining the EEC, the Court of Justice could now protect workers rights  Data Protection Act 1984: Established protections surrounding personal information held by public institution.  Human Rights Act 1998: Put the ECHR into UK law, could now be challenged and protected in UK courts.  Freedom of Information Act 2000: Allowed Citizens to make requests of the Government and access any non-security related information. Increasing transparency.  : Consolidated all anti-discrimination laws together, protecting sexuality, gender, religion, race, age etc.

How are rights protected:  Pressure Groups: o Liberty UK helped to pressure the Conservatives over the British Bill of Rights in 2015-2016, keeping the HRA. o Campaign for Freedom of Information led to the law passing and they stopped MPs from changing the law in 2007 to ensure requests could not be made of Parliament. o 2017 Unison won a court case declaring expensive tribunal fees unlawful  Parliament: o In Nov 2005, Blair tried to change the number of days you could be detained for from 14 to 90 days. This was defeated by Parliament.  Judiciary: o Supreme Court ruled that a bakers had to make a wedding cake for a homosexual couple in 2016, court ruled that was against their rights. o Supreme Court can stop legislation that goes against laws- 2004 they stopped indefinite detention of foreign nationals accused of terrorism o Supreme Court ruled in 2018 that Pimlico Plumbers were not self-employed so were deserved employment rights. o High Court declared in March 2019 that laws holding Landlords to account for migration status of Immigrants went against the HRA as it encouraged landlords to discriminate. o September 2019 Courts declared ’s attempt to Prorogue Parliament illegal and Parliament sat the next day. o February 2020, deportations to Jamaica delayed due to human rights groups  Laws: o Human Rights Act 1998 protects all our rights form the ECHR and means they are legally binding o Equality Act 2010, means all demographics are now protected from discrimination .

Are rights well protected USE UNIT 2 KNOWELDGE AS WELL! Strengths Weaknesses Strong common law tradition to update rights Common law can be vague and overruled by and protect us Parliament The UK has to comply with the European Parliament is sovereign and can overrule Convention of Human rights anything- in 2010 passed the Terrorist asset freezing act to avoid a court ruling. Judiciary is independent and is happy to Terrorism has led to rights being reduced overrule Government  Snoopers Charter 2016  Secret Courts 2013 Pressure groups help to educate and hold Government has a majority so can in theory Government to account change all right laws ( in 1997 had 418/650 seats!) Boris Johnson right now! Laws on terrorism in 2020. Coronavirus legislation shows how quickly laws can be passed which have huge impact on rights- Police arresting people etc.

Collective vs Individual rights:

Glossary:

Unit 1.2 Political Parties

2.1 Political Parties

Functions of Parties:

 Convert political ideas into policies (policy formulation by discussion is called aggregation  All for participation through internal voting, discussion, leafleting etc.  Represent sections of society, certain issues, and political ideas  Select candidates for election to council, Parliament, European Parliament etc.  Identify leaders – Prime Ministers are leaders of a party  Help to organise elections and provide choice in these elections  They help to educate the public on issues

Features of Parties:  Members hold broadly similar views  They seek to secure elections of their candidates at various levels  They have an organisation to help develop policies, select leaders etc.  They have some kind of formal membership

Left vs Right Wing Policies

Left Right  Redistribute income through high taxes and  Low levels of tax to incentivise work and  Strong support for welfare state enterprise  Support workers’ rights and trade unions  Acceptance of private sector involvement in  State should be involved in economy through support or public services control  State should not interfere in economy  A stress on equal rights for all in society  Support for free market and reducing trade  Support for equality of opportunity union power  Strong on law and order  Stress and national identity

Parties and ideological Position

Labour Lib Dems UKIP

Green SNP Tories

How are Parties Funded?

 Collecting membership fees  Holding fundraising events  Receiving donations  Raising loans  Self-financing of candidates  £2 million available in state grants  Short money available for opposition political parties

Why is funding controversial?  Funds collected vary considerably. In the three months before the 2017 election: Tories Labour Lib Dems SNP UKIP Plaid Cymru £25 million £9.5 million £.4.4 million £600,000 £150, 000 £5,300  Funding by large donors may give them influence. Labour received £4.4 million Unite Union, Tories received £1.5 million from the JCB Hedge fund  Cash for honours and cash for questions scandals, show problem of funding Richard Desmond scandal 2020, big donation after his bulding was approved by Conservatives.  Declining party memberships makes parties more reliant on donations

Donations to Parties between October and December 31st 2019- Highest ever, £70 Million in all!

Party Funding Conservatives £37.6 million Liberal Democrats £13.7 million Labour £10 million Brexit Party £7 million Green Paty £0.4 million (409,000) SNP £0.2 million (213,000) Plaid Cymru £0.09 million (90,000!) 2019 Election funding:

Proposed solutions - Impose restrictions on size of individual donations - Impose tight restrictions on spending - Outlaw donations from anyone other than individuals - Replace with state funding

State funding?

YES NO  It will end opportunities for corrupt use of  Taxpayers may object to their taxes funding certain donations parties  It will end opportunities for ‘hidden’ funding and  It will be difficult to know how to divide up state influence of money funding. Will bigger parties get more? Will this make  Reduce huge financial advantage of big parties change harder?  Improve democracy, by increasing wider  Parties may lose some independence participation of all groups, not just the rich  May lead to state regulation of parties

2.1 Established Political Parties

Old Labour values and policies

Values:  Equality and social justice  Common ownership  Class conflict  Trade Unionism  Equality of opportunity  Nationalisation and statism  Collectivism  Welfarism

Policies: Economy  Nationalise key industries: Rail, Energy, Water etc  Control economy – state intervention Taxation  Progressive taxation (very high for rich, 90% for Wilson in 60s) Trade Unions  Protected through laws  Very close to government, lots of beer and sandwiches Health  Create Education  Created comprehensive education – against grammar schools  Belief in free education – no tuition fees, generous grants etc. Europe  Traditionally opposed to Europe, believe it may challenge socialism  BUT liked that it began to protect workers Foreign Policy  Committed to nuclear disarmament  Anti-Intervention- avoids Vietnam  Low military spending Law and Order  Believe in rehabilitation over punishment Social  Progressive- Legalise homosexuality, abortion and illegalise the death Issues/Misc. penalty  Anti-racist policies

New Labour values and policies

Values:  Reject class conflict  Individualism   Equality of opportunity  Enabling state- allow private companies  to create wealth and don’t control the  Constitutional reform. economy.

Economy  Follow on with and Neo-Liberalism  No renationalisation, happy to keep things privatised  Huge public spending- Tax Credits, NHS spending, Schools etc.  Focus on attacking poverty as opposed to creating equality- introduce minimum wage Taxation  Kept low- similar to Thatcher- ‘No problem with people getting filthy rich’ Trade unions  Limited role, no reversal of Thatcher policies Health  Huge expenditure.  Introduced more capitalist ideas- league tables and private contracts. Education  Huge expenditure.  Increase in University places, but also introduction of fees. Europe  Very Pro-Europe Foreign Policy  Want UK to take a leading role- support the making and possession of Nuclear weapons.  Believe in intervention- Kosovo 1999 and Iraq 2003  Pro-EU and . Law and  Tough on crime and tough on causes of crime. Order  Introduce strict anti-terror laws and ASBOs Social  Progressive- Anti-Discrimination laws and Human Rights Act Issues/Misc.  Lots of reform- devolve power to Scotland/Wales/N.Ireland, Freedom of Information Act, Constitutional Reform Act. Etc.

Jeremy Corbyn’s policies 2019 Area Policy Economy  Nationalisation of rail, water, energy and royal mail.  Increase minimum wage to living wage  Aim for a 4 day week  End public sector pay cap  Massive increase house building Taxation  Reintroduce 50- tax rate on highest earners  New income Tax of 45p on £80,000 or more  Increase corporation tax, but keep it low for small businesses Trade unions  Repeal Trade Union act to make strikes easier  Workers would receive 10% of shares of public companies  Ensure that a 1/3rd of board members are workers Health  Huge expenditure- £30bn increase  New mental health specific budgets  Free prescriptions for all in UK  New free social care for Elderly- National Care Scheme Education  Scrap tuition fees  No grammars  Free school meals for all primary kids.  New idea of a National Education Service (like an NHS)  Abolish and Nationalize all Private Schools  Abolish Ofsted Europe  Want to renegotiate Brexit and then have a second referendum to confirm it (will be neutral during the referendum) Foreign Policy  Support Trident  Maintain spending on defence Law and Order  Increase police numbers by 30,000  End short prison sentences Social Issues/Misc.  Progressive- Anti-Discrimination laws and support Human Rights Act  Votes at 16  In favour of constitutional reform

Current Labour (2019 manifesto) New or Old Labour? Old New  Believes in nationalisation  Pro Trident and want to maintain defence spending  High taxes  Massive public spending  No tuition fees and anti-grammar  Increase in minimum wage  Pro-Brexit  Want to continue constitutional reform  Support Trade Unions  Most MPs would still consider themselves New  Command economy Labour, so majority of Party is actually New Labour.  Belief in society not individualism

Starmer’s first few months’ policies/position- 10 pledges he made in campaign.  Economy: End Universal Credit, Nationalize industries  Taxation: Increase Income tax for top 5%, reverse corporation tax cut. SI  Social Issues/Misc: Green New Deal- Clean Air Act. Abolish House of Lords.  Foreign Policy: Prevention of Military Intervention Act. Review all arms sales.  Europe: Happy to let Brexit happen, but support a trade deal.  Trade Unions: Repeal Trade Union Act.  Education: Abolish tuition fees.

One Nation Conservatism values and policies

Values:  Human nature is flawed  Organic society  Order  Pragmatism  Tradition  Property  Opposition to Ideology

Economy  Want a mixed economy, both private and state control. Capitalism was seen as dangerous to the one nation idea, but creating problems between poor and rich.  Accepted nationalisation and didn’t reverse it. even bailed out Rolls Royce in the 1970s- Not free market. Taxation  Acceptance of progressive taxation, helps to bind nation together. Tax remained at 60-80% for highest earners. Trade unions  Believed Trade Unions helped to bind nation together and do not introduce anti-union laws. Health  NHS is left untouched and is well funded- pragmatic as they knew it was popular, but also because they believed it helped the one nation idea. Education  Well-funded state education- but also wanted to embrace opportunity.  Introduced the the tripartite system of Grammars, Technical colleges and Secondary Moderns. Europe  Very Pro-Europe- enter the EEC (later the EU) in 1973. Foreign Policy  Traditional and sought to uphold prestige of Empire- Suez invasion 1956 Law and  Belief in order and tradition- strong approach to Law and Order. Order Social  Belief in traditional moral values. Vote against illegalising the death penalty and legalising Issues/Misc. abortion

Thatcherism values and policies

Values:  Neo-Liberalism  Disengage from controlling economy  Free Markets  Traditional values  Create incentives  Strong law and order  Stop dependency culture  Neo-Conservative

Economy  Believed Govt. involvement was the problem, not the solution. More private competition was needed to create incentives. Tried to make it a freer market.  Privatised nearly all key industries, and let failing businesses go bust- Mines, Steel mills etc.  No longer put money into national schemes.  Reduced regulations in all areas and disengaged from economy- Right to buy council houses. Taxation  Taxes disincentives hard work. Needs to be less progressive and more equal. Tax cuts for the wealthy, increase in VAT and Community charge (Poll Tax) Trade unions  Believe they ruin the economy and stop businesses from booming by forcing wages up and stopping the introduction of technology.  Passes laws to make it harder to go on strike, allows businesses to sue for lost money and defeats the miners’ strike. Market needs to be free of strong unions. Health  Suspicious of national services, and a belief in choice. Still accepted the NHS, but no funding increases and introduced competition between Hospitals (league tables) and tax breaks for those going Private. Education  Belief in choice and opportunity.  Stopped the closure of grammar schools, league tables (funding based on this) and assisted places schemes to help more go to Private Schools, cut funding of free school milk! Europe  Suspicious of multinational organisations, very nationalistic. Bit split on this- very pro Europe to begin with (joins the single Market) But then turns against it. NO, NO, NO she famously said when the EEC wanted to increase power. Foreign Policy  Nationalist and a want to defend markets and British interests. Very anti-communist, supported USA and Reagan. in 1982 Law and  Belief in order and tradition meant they were strict and increased Prison sentences. Order Social  Belief in traditional moral values. (prohibited the promotion of homosexuality in Issues/Misc. schools) and refused to investigate the AIDS epidemic.

Boris Johnson Policies Economy  Increase to a national living wage (£9.59 an hour by 2020 and £10.30 by 2024)  ‘Ended’ Austerity with $29 billion on infrastructure improvement, $5billion on improving broadband across countryside.  Let FlyBe collapse, not bailing it out!  Coronavirus policies of nationalization and wage support- Furlough scheme etc.  ‘New Deal’ policy and ‘Build Build Build’. Big economic injections- Left wing looking Taxation  Increase the threshold at which you pay NIC (essentially a tax cut for poorer)  No change to income tax  Keep Corporation Tax at the same low level. Trade  No reversal of Trade Union laws. unions  New law ensuring that all tips go to employees. Health  40 more hospitals built (only 6 to begin with…)  £13 billion increase to health (only 2.8bn to start with)  New independent body with legal powers- HSSIB  Improved mental health act Education  Announced a £14 billion increase to Education spending (over 5 year)  Continue to expand Free Schools  £120m on increasing number of technical colleges Europe  New Boris Deal: o UK leaves EU o End of free movement o remains in customs arrangement (so border is basically in the Irish sea)  Wants a new trade deal when they have left. Foreign  Support trident Policy  Supports increase in building of Royal Navy Law and  Harsher sentencing laws- have to serve at least 1/3rds of term now. Order  20,000 extra Police Officers Social  New Environment bill- carbon, plastic and pollution clamped down. Issues/Misc.  New anti-voter fraud law

Is Boris Johnson One Nation or Thatcherite? One Nation Thatcherite  Increase to living wage  Low corporation tax  Increase to threshold on NIC  Pro-Brexit  Increased public spending  Cutting tax for rich (looks like he won’t actually do this)  Ending ‘Austerity’  Tough on Law and Order  Keep trade union act.  FlyBe Collapse!

Budget 2020 update:  Tax cut for poorer via National insurance.  30bn for NHS via Coronavirus  Huge investments in infrastructure- High spending! And very One Nation

Coronavirus 2020 update:  Furlough scheme until October, with Government helping pay for wages. Very One-Nation, pragmatic support of Economy.  ‘New Deal’ announced in June, big increase in spending on housing, schools, health etc. Very One-Nation, but not as much money as New Labour.

Liberal traditional values and 2019 policies

Values:  Liberty (classical liberals mean pure  Environmentalism freedoms from state and be left alone.  Constitutionalism Modern liberals believe state has to  Welfare intervene to ensure all have access to  Social reform freedom)  Multiculturalism  Social justice

Economy  Reverse benefits cuts.  End public sector pat cup  Huge increase in spending on housing and economy- £130bn infrastructure injection  BUT…seek to still reduce borrowing overall and have a budget surplus Taxation  Increase tax by 1p for the NHS’s £7bn fund  Reverse corporation and inheritance tax cuts  New taxes on flying and on legalized marijuana. Trade unions  Keep Trade Union laws, but make trade union access easier  Make it easier for employees to buy shares in company Health  Increase spending by £7bn  Increase spending on mental health. Education  Increase spending and reverse cuts, improve teacher salaries and recruit more.  No Grammar schools  Reintroduce university grants (loans that don’t need to be repaid). Europe  Want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU, claim it will create a £50 billion remain bonus. Foreign Policy  Work to lead disarmament  Committed to 2% GDP spend on defence. Law and  Increase community policing. Order  Legalise cannabis  End imprisonment for possession of drugs Social  Ban fracking Issues/Misc.  More money on renewable energy sources- 80% renewable by 2030  Votes at 16  Abolish House of Lords.

Factions:

Labour:  Corbynites- On the left of the party, supported by political group Momentum. , John McDonnel, Diane Abbot.  Blairites- On the right of the party, want a return to New Labour ideas. Supported by political group Progress. Chuka Umunna, and Hilary Benn.  Blue Labour- Maurice Glasman- believe in returning to working class values with more traditional social policies.  Also split over Brexit. Owen Smith was sacked in March 2018 for supporting a second referendum.

Conservative

 Traditional 1980s split of the Wets (more liberal) and Dries (more conservative)  Social Conservatives- Supported by group Cornerstone- Jacob Rees Mogg  Pro Brexit- Supported by which is chaired by Jacob Rees Mogg and supported by Boris Johnson- Have been so powerful recently, leading opposition to the withdrawal deal, and leading the 48 letters in Dec. 2018.  Anti-Brexit and One Nation: Supported by - Ken Clarke and . Resignations of and in support of another referendum  Thatcherite- Supported by - .

Liberal Democrats

 Orange Book Liberals- based on the name of a 2004 book written by , and . Much more classical in style, and supportive of Thatcher’s changes. Neo-Liberal and more similar to New Labour.  Social Liberals- much closer to traditional SDP, and more linked to Labour ideals. Focus on need on social justice, than social freedom, so desire more Government intervention, leader 2015-2017 was one, so 2017 manifesto was very socially liberal.

2.3 Emerging and Minor Parties

SNP Policies:  Want to become an independent country that remains in EU  Support constitutional reforms such as abolishing FPTP and introducing Votes at 16.  Anti Trident and Anti-Austerity  Social Democratic in nature and looks like they may use new tax powers to increase tax for rich.  Abolish tuition fees and supports the EMA (financial support for A-Level students)  Lots of pro-environment policies. Importance:  Although a reduction in seats from 57 to 35 in 2017, they are still the largest party in Scotland.  They are the Government on Scotland and have been since 2011 election.  Due to closeness of recent elections, it is expected they would be natural Coalition partners for Labour to reach a majority.  Huge increase again in 2019 48/59

UKIP Policies:  Hard Brexit- focusing on curbing immigration.  Raise tax thresholds- so poorer workers keep more.  Have a living wage and want strict inspections to make sure it is followed.  Tough on law and order and want an increase in all servicemen.  Want an expansion of grammar schools.  Want to increase funding for all public services.  Ban and niqab  Close down Department for International Development (no more foreign aid)  Constitutional reform- Abolish Lords, end FPTP and more referendums. Importance:  Common for people to view UKIP as going extinct, they polled just 1% in April 2018- 6% in March 2019!  Suffered heavy losses in all recent elections- No MPs, only a handful of councillors. 13% in 2015 to 2% in 2017.  Only 1 member in Welsh and London Assemblies. Look to get very little in 2019  BUT… they can be seen as actually the most important political party in recent years, it is very unlikely we would have had an EU referendum without them, and even less likely Leave would have won without them.  So they have been hugely important in shaping national policy- Labour and Tory are now both Pro-Brexit.  Unlikely to ever improve again due to Brexit party

Green Policies:  Referendum on final Brexit deal- Very Pro-European.  Introduction of a 4 day week  Scrap tuition fees  New Wealth tax on top 1%  Renationalise rail, energy, water, buses and Royal Mail  Votes at 16 and abolish FPTP  Increase minimum wage to living wage  Ban fracking and replace all power stations with renewable energy- 100bn climate fund Importance  The Green party only have one MP, and have no majority control over any councils.  They have made environmental policies much more important- all major parties now dedicate parts of their manifesto to the environment.  They have lost support due to the now newly left wing Labour Party occupying much of the same space as them

Brexit Party Policies:  Reform Constitution- Abolish FPTP, House of Lords and make Supreme Court Judges a political appointment. More Referendums!  Hard Brexit, with a tough Australian Style Points system of immigration  Cut Foreign aid budget.  Abolish inheritance tax  Cut Vat and Fuel tax  Reduce tariffs  Cut Corporation tax for small companies  Reject privitisation of NHS  Reform Universal Credit and improve benefits Importance:  They won the European Elections! So are the largest UK Party in the EU- 30%  They arguably led to resigning and being replaced by the more Leave leaning Boris Johnson.  BUT…. Farage not running in Tory seats in 2019 means they are only running in half of the seats possible. Is that important?  Lots of Brexit candidates h stood down to help Conservatives- Rees Mogg’s sister!  Have they achieved their mission already- BoJo is supporting their plan for Brexit?  Only got 2% of the vote and no MPs. But helped Tories win in seats?

Are minor parties important or not? Important Not  Help to make policies more mainstream and  Bee Theory- Once a minor party has an impact, the important- Environment (Green) the EU (UKIP. major parties steal their ideas, so the minor party then  Can help to lead Govts. In coalitions or Supply loses support. (UKIP between 2015 and 2017) and Confidence deals (DUP in 2017)  Never have a realistic chance of winning power.  Can take votes away from major parties and  Are not well represented due to voting system (only affect the results (UKIP took votes from Labour 11% of seats in 2017). in 2015, Brexit in 2019)  Will fail if too similar to a large party (Green lost votes  Can dominate national politics- SNP in Scotland to Labour in 2017)  Can dominate European Politics- UKIP won in  Due to FPTP they can stand down to help similar parties 2015 and Brexit Party in 2019 (Remain alliance in 2019 and Brexit Party standing down in Tory Seats)

2.4. UK political parties in context

Party Systems:

One- When there is only one choice of party ()

Dominant- When only one party has a chance of winning (SNP in Scotland in 2015)

Two- When only two parties have a realistic chance of winning/serious representation (Tory and Labour in England)

Three- When only three parties have a chance of winning/serious representation (UK in 2015- Tory/Labour/SNP)

Multi- When multiple parties have significant representation (Wales and N.Ireland.

REMEMBER- VOTING SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THIS

Adversary vs Consensus Politics:

Adversary: Period of Politics where there is wide disagreement over key principles and policies. Can be seen in 1980s between Thatcher and Labour, also seen between Corbyn’s Labour and Tories post 2015.

Consensus: Period of Politics where there is agreement over key principles, but some minor disagreement on policy. Can be seen in post war consensus 1945-1979, where Labour and Tories agreed on new nationalization and welfare state. Also seen in Post Thatcher consensus of 1997-2015, agreeing on policies of low taxation and neo-liberal policies.

1.3 Electoral Systems

3.1 Different Electoral Systems

FPTP- Features and Working- PLURALITY SYSTEM  Country is divided into constituencies- 650  Each constituency elects one Member of Parliament  Each Party puts forward one candidate in each constituency  Every constituent gets one vote for one MP  The winner has to achieve the most votes, not a majority. This is called a plurality.  Safe Seats: Some constituencies always return the same party. It is estimated that NUMBER OF SAFE SEATS. This can disenfranchise voters and mean there are many wasted voted every year. An example is Liverpool Walton where the majority is 77%.  Marginal Seats: Some constituencies regularly change hands, and the parties have very small majorities. Voters in these seats feel like they have more power, as their vote is more likely to not be wasted. Parties will also focus on them more. For example the SNP in Fife North East have a majority of just 2 votes!

Advantages Disadvantages  Easy to understand and is counted quickly. Producing  Outcome is never proportional or fair Look below for an efficient and easy result (Voting is nearly always examples completed by the next morning and a Govt. formed)  Many wasted votes are produced 68% wasted in  Gives each constituency one MP who can be 2017 contacted easily and will represent all who live in the  Safe seats and Marginal Seats mean there are votes constituency (dog poo in the parks!) of unequal value- Green needed 525,000 to elect  MPs can therefore clearly be held to account for the one MP. Tories needed only 42,978. previous 5 years  Benefits parties with concentrated support- SNP got  Tends to produce a clear winner and a decisive 7.4% of the seats, but 3.9% of the vote. LDs got Government (Only three elections since 1945 have 11.6% of the vote and 1.7% of the seats. produced hung Parliaments- 1974, 2010, 2017) 2019  Encourages tactical voting, rather than was a return to form. democratically voting for who you support  Helps to stop extremist parties to break into  Prevents new parties breaking in, causing inertia Parliament (BNP in 2010 for example)  Since 1945, no party has won 50% of the vote.  Has been used for our history, no reason to change Meaning all Governments did not actually receive a and step into unknown. majority. Conservatives in 2015 only received 36.9% of the vote, and Labour in 2005 only received 35.2%!  FPTP has begun to fail to give decisive results, meaning it’s biggest strength no longer exists. Failed to give a storng majority in 2010, 2015, 2017. The ERS said that 2017 is the 3rd strike.

2017 results Party % of Votes % of Seats Tory 42.4 48.9 Labour 40 40.3 SNP 3 5.4 Lib Dem 7.4 1.8 DUP 0.9 1.5 Sinn Fein 0.7 1.1 Plaid Cymru 0.5 0.6 UKIP 1.8 0 Green 1.6 0.2 Others 1.7 0

2019 results Party % of Votes % of Seats Tory 43.6 56.2 (big winners bonus!) Labour 32.2 31.1 (weirdly proportional SNP 3.9 7.4 Lib Dem 11.6 1.7 DUP 0.8 1.2 Sinn Fein 0.6 1.1 Plaid Cymru 0.6 0.6 SDLP (NI party) 0.4 0.3 Green 2.7 0.2 Alliance (NI party) 0.4 0.2 . YouGov suggested 1/3rd of voters voted tactically. . Conservatives won an extra 48 seats, but only gained an extra 1.4% of the vote. 57% of seats and 43.6% of votes. . Lots of wasted votes again- estimated 70% wasted… even worse, 95% of votes for Labour in Scotland were wasted (just 1 seat won). . Lib Dems got screwed again! 11.5% of the vote and 1.7% of the seats.

AMS- Features and Working- HYBRID SYSTEM  Each voter has two votes- One for constituency (done under FPTP, electing individual) One for Regional List (done under list system, electing party)  2/3rds of Seats are FPTP and constituency based, 1/3rd are Regional List, with elected MSPs being attached to larger regions. Safe seats can exist therefore, but List vote makes up for it.  After the votes are counted, using the D’hondt method it is worked out how many top up MPs each party needs to be more proportional. The List seats are then allocated. Parties who do badly in constituencies but well regionally therefore gain seats.  The top up system is used to make the result more proportional

Advantages Disadvantages  Produces a broadly proportional result, so  Produces two classes of representative- List is a fair system (look at table below) MPs tend to be senior. Confusion therefore  Gives voters a second vote that does not for accountability. have the problem of safe seats, so no  More complex as voters have two votes. tactical voting (all votes are counted in list  Can result in election of extremist parties. system)  More likely to result in minority and  Means all voters still have a constituency coalition Governments (SNP have only ever MP keeping link and accountability. had a tiny majority- no strong Govts. Produced- minority in 2016)  One vote is still under the disproportional FPTP system

Scotland 2016 results Party % of Constituency Votes % of Seats Tory 22.9 24 Labour 19.1 18.6 SNP 41.7 48.8 Lib Dem 5.2 3.9 Green 6.6 4.7 Others 4.5 0

STV- Features and Working- PROPORTIONAL SYSTEM  There is a constituency system, but each constituency has 6 seats  Each Party can put in 6 candidates, but they usually put in 4 or less (as they’ll never win 100% of the votes)  Voters place candidates in order of preference 1, 2, 3 etc. Lots of choice  An electoral quota is worked out, to establish how many votes a candidate needs to be one of the six MPs (using Droop Formula)  All first preferences are counted and if any candidate reaches the quota they are elected.  The second and subsequent preferences of the elected candidate are then added to the other candidates. Process is repeated until 6 MPs have been elected Advantages Disadvantages  Produces a proportional result (use below  It is a very complex system that can be hard for evidence) to understand  Gives voters a wide choice and ensures  The voting takes a long time to count (2016 they don’t need to tactically vote, as they took several days) can rank candidates in order.  Can help extremist candidates  Voters have option to vote for multiple  As there are 6 MPs- accountability is not parties, or just one. clear- who represents the constituency?  Allows small parties to be elected- People  Likely to result in minority/coalition Govt. Before Profit won 2 in 2016  As there are 6 MPs there should be at least one you voted for No wasted votes. Clear support

N.Ireland 2016 results Party % of 1st Pref. Votes % of Seats DUP 29.2 35.2 Sinn Fein 24 25.9 UUP 12.6 14.8 SDLP 12 11.1 Alliance 7 7.4 Others 15.2 5.6

SV- Features and Working- MAJORITY SYSTEM  Used to elect a single candidate and ensure they have majority support  Voters have two choices: First and Second preference.  If a candidate receives 50% of first perferences they win.  If they don’t all candidates are removed except top two, all second preferences are then divvied up and the candidate with over 50% wins! With an overall majority of first and second preferences. Advantages Disadvantages  Winning candidate will always have  Winning candidates have a false majority as majority support ( can claim they win on second preferences over 50% of Londoners wanted him to be  Winning candidate will not always have a Mayor). majority of first preferences.  Simple to understand just two preferences  Voters still need to tactically vote with their  Voters don’t need to tactically vote, as their second preference. second preference will be counted.  If your first and second preference were not in the top 2, your vote is wasted.  May embolden extremists- 30,000

2016 Mayoral results Candidate Party 1st Votes % 2nd votes added % Sadiq Khan Labour 1,148,716 44.2 1,310,143 56.8 Tory 909,755 35 994, 614 43.2 Sian Berry Green 150,673 Caroline Pidgeon Lib Dem 120,005 Peter Whittle UKIP 94,373 Others Various 173,439

3.2 Referendums and how they are used

Why referendums may be held:  An issue may be very divisive and a referendum can help to settle the issue: 1975 and 2016 EU referendums  An issue may have a large constitutional impact so will need popular support: 1997 devolution referendums and Scottish Independence referendum 2014.  Can entrench and safeguard changes, ensuring they can’t be easily reversed: NI referendum on peace deal 1998  To judge public opinion: Local referendums like in 2005.

Year Reason held Question Results Turnout

1975 Labour Party were divided on the Should the UK remain a member of the Yes- 67.2% 64.5% issue European Community? No-32.8% 1997 Needed popular consent and it Should additional powers be devolved to Yes- 74.3% 60.4% would help to embed change Scotland and a No-25.7% established? 1997 Needed popular consent and it Should additional powers be devolved to Yes- 67.2% 50.1% would help to embed change Wales and a Welsh Assembly No-32.8% established? 1998 Required support from whole Should the Belfast agreement be Yes- 71.7% 81.0% country in order to stop violence implemented? No-28.9% of the Troubles and embed peace 2004 Needed popular consent and it Should additional powers be devolved to Yes- 22.1% 47.7% would help to embed change NE England and a regional assembly No-77.9% established? 2005 Was a controversial proposal Should a congestion charge zone be Yes- 25.6% 61.7% introduced in Edinburgh? No-74.4% 2011 Was a promise to Lib Dems in Should the UK adopt the alternative vote Yes- 32.1% 42.2% Coalition agreement- and would system for General Elections? No-67.9% be a large change 2014 A fundamental constitutional Should Scotland become a completely Yes- 44.7% 84.6% question that needed popular independent country? No-55.3% support 2016 A fundamental constitutional Should the UK remain a member of the Yes- 48.1% 72.2% question. To stop splits of EU? No-51.9% Conservative Party. To deal with challenge of UKIP

Impact of recent referendums  The devolution referendums of 1997 for Labour helped to confirm their changes and ensured that no future Government could get rid of the changes.  When the public vote against a Government it can cause problems: It can embarrass and change the valence of a party as with Labour in 2004 or it can cause a Government to essentially fall as happened in 2016 and resigning.  It can also have big impacts on voting behaviour and party loyalty: o 2014 Scottish referendum led to many voters turning away from Labour as they campaigned with the Tories to keep Scotland in the UK. Instead many turned to the SNP who then won 56/59 seats. o 2016 EU Referendum essentially stopped UKIP being a large political party, as Brexit was now accepted, many UKIP voters went back to Labour and Tory.

Advantages Disadvantages  Purest form of direct democracy- demonstrating  Some issues are too complex and difficult for the the will of the people. Rather than just the will of public to make an informed decision- no voter elected representatives. understood all the consequences and  Referendums can mend and settle rifts in society complications of the EU referendum. with a decisive result- 1998 NI referendum  Referendums can actually exaggerate social  Referendums can also solve splits and conflcits divisions- EU Referendum led to death of Jo Cox within the political system- EU referendums of MP and rise in hate crime. 1975 and 2016  Referendums can undermine our representative  Help to embed and protect changes that are democracy. popularly supported- Devolution 1997  Represents the ‘tyranny of the majority’. As the  Due to the new wave of media and political result is never proportional it is either yes/no. education, you could argue people are now more 48.1% of people wanted to remain and they are well informed and therefore capable of making not represented. informed decisions on issues Turnout of 2014  Due to complicated/emotional issues- media and and 2016 referendums was high lies can have a large impact- £350 million bus.  Many questions cannot simply be reduced to a yes/no answer- 2011 AV referendum. Many voted no, but wanted a change from FPTP

3.3 Electoral System analysis

What are the systems good at/compared: System Party Government Voter Choice Fairness Proportionality System FPTP Tends to Strong Government Little choice- one Votes have unequal value Very two with majority usually vote and many due to disproportional parties safe seats leads concentrated/dispersed to tactical voting support.- Unlikely to have majority support AMS Multi- Difficult for one party Voters have two Fewer wasted votes due Outcome is Party to gain a majority- votes. to second vote. reasonably Minority or Coalition proportional STV Multi- Majority Government Voters have Extremely fair due to Outcome is very Party nearly impossible- many choice and number of preferences proportional Coalition rank candidates in order. SV Tends to Would lead to a strong Two preferences Although two choices- Outcome is not two Government of candiates still lots of wasted votes- proportional. parties and winner always has But majority will majority support. support winner.

Positives and Negatives of UK elections

Positives Negatives  Very little corruption. Electoral fraud is rare and  FPTP is unrepresentative and unfair. swiftly dealt with. Secret ballots.  Small parties are rare in our mainly two party  Constituencies allow clear representation of system citizens.  Governments are never supported by the  Held on a regular basis, no have to be held very majority. 5 years.  Turnout is relatively low in recent years.  Wide and fair suffrage  Very peaceful elections- clear winners and losers.  Allows MPs to be held to account  Devolved regions have proportional systems

Should FPTP be replaced?

Replace Retain  The ERS said that FPTP has had its third strike  Tried and tested system with widespread and can no longer be trusted to provide a support- AV Referendum of 2011. majority Government (2010, 2015, 2017)  Retains a strong constituency link that is  Produces a very unproptional outcome weakened in other systems- AMS and STV- not compared to other systems. clear who your MP is. Allows for clear  Leads to safe and marginal seats. accountability.  Too many wasted votes.  Tends to produce strong Governments (besides  Government never have majority support. recent years)  Replacing it will allow small and extremist parties to get in- BNP  Simple and easy to use.

Unit 1.4 Voting Behaviour and the Media

4.1 Case Studies of Three elections

Social/Demographic factors: Class

Class type Description AB Higher Managerial (Director, Lawyer, Doctor, Senior Executive) C1 Professional occupations (Teachers, Managers, Social Workers) C2 Skilled Manual (Plumber, Train Driver, Mechanic) DE Unskilled or Unemployed (Labourer, Call Centre)

Trend: Seen to be very important pre-1970s, but gradually become less important. DE and C1 more likely to vote Labour and ABC1 more likely to vote Tory

Year %DE Voting Year %AB Voting Conservative Labour 1964 78 1964 64 1987 57 1987 53 1997 59 1997 59 2010 40 2010 40 2015 45 2015 41 2017 43 2017 59 2019 45 2019 39

Key terms:  Partisan Dealignment- As class has become less important so too has the attachment to Labour and Tory as seen in decline in voting.  Deviant voting- Voters who vote against their class- Working Class Tories or Middle Class Labourites.

Age

Trend: Seen to gradually becoming much more important with 2017 seeing a huge difference in age voting 18-40 more likely to vote Labour, 40+ more likely to vote Tory.

Age Range 1979 1997 2010 2015 2017 2019

18-24 Con +1 Lab +12 Lab +1 Lab +16 Lab +49 Lab +35 25-34 Con +5 Lab +11 Con +1 Lab +3 Lab +36 Lab +31 35-44 Con+11 Lab +10 Con +5 Draw Lab +20 Lab +16 45-54 / Lab +10 Con +2 Con +3 Con +1 Con +6 55-64 Con +9 Lab +3 Con +5 Con +6 Con +14 Con +21 65+ / Lab +5 Con +13 Con +24 Con +36 Con +35 Overall (in Con +7 Lab +12 Con +7 Con +7 Con +2 Con+11 Election)

Gender

Trend: Does not seem to affect voting too much with most elections being very similar between men and women except with Thatcher in 1979 and 1983, Women voted Conservative much more. See below for more evidence

Year Men Women Difference 1992 Con +4 Con +10 6 1997 Lab +14 Lab +12 2 2001 Lab +10 Lab +9 1 2005 Draw Lab +4 4 2010 Con +10 Con +5 5 2015 Con +8 Con +4 4 2017 Con +3 Lab +2 5 2019 Con +15 Con +9 6

Region

Trends:  Scotland was solidly Labour but has been mainly SNP for 2015 and 2017 (37% in 2017, 50% in 2015)  Wales, North and London all dominated by Labour (48.9% in Wales, 53% in North, 54% in Greater London)  South East and South West dominated by Tories and Midlands less so (51.4 in SW and 53.8% in SE)

Ethnicity

Trends:  BME Voters likely to side with Labour for historical laws against discrimination as well as fact BME tend to be lower on social class scale.  However, some immigrant communities such as Indians and Jewish peoples are more likely to vote Tory.  David Cameron did best to attract BME voters in 2010 and 2015.

Year BME voting Labour BME voting Tory BME voting Lib Dems 1997 70 18 9 2010 60 16 20 2015 65 23 4 2017 65 21 6 2019 64 20 12

Short term Voting trends/theories:

Floating voters: Voters not influenced by social factors but rather other factors and therefore change their vote each election

Valence Valence is essentially how far you like/trust the vibe of the party, and this is based on a number of factors:  Governing Competence: Does the party appear to make good decisions? Are they decisive and do they/did they govern well? Tories were bad at this in 1997 and Labour were bad in 2010.  Economic Competence: Can the party be trusted to look after the economy? Tories were seen as not being able to after Black Wednesday in 1992 and Labour weren’t after crash of 2008 (Both lost elections)  Party Unity: If the party aren’t united they can’t be trusted to run the country- Labour in the 1980s suffered from this and so did Tories in 2000s  Party leaders: Can they be trusted and are they respected? Clegg was respected in 2010, but not in 2015 hence massive loss in votes. Miliband seen as less strong than Cameron in 2015

Rational Choice When voters make their decision based on what policies are most important to them (Salient issues) and who has the best ones.  In 2015 Economy and Immigration were seen as two most salient points so Tories won  In 1997 NHS and Education were seen as two most salient points so Labour won  In 2017 while Brexit was most salient it was closely followed by NHS and Cuts, hence surprising gains for Labour.  In 2019 Brexit was most salient, with Economy second, hence Tory win.

Issue Voting: Two types- based purely on one issue/policy Instrumental is when you vote out of self interest. Expressive is when you vote for the benefit of others.  Students voting for Labour in 2017 due to tuition fees pledge  Middle classes voting for Labour in 1997 due to New Labour policies of low taxes. Economic influences Linking to Valence, if the economic situation of a country is good the Government tends to win, if it is bad they tend to lose.  Labour’s 1978-79 Winter of Discontent made sure they lost in May 1979 Election.  Tories Black Wednesday and recession of 1990s ensured Labour won in 1997.  Financial crisis of 2008 ensured Labour lost in 2010.

Party leaders Linking to media, the party leader has become much more important when it comes down to motivating voters.  was seen as strong and decisive and had a good record in her wins of 1983 and 1987.  Tony Blair has excellent communication skills and was very good on Tv and other media in 1997, 2001 and 2005.  was seen as weak and unable to control his party when losing in 1997  was seen as weak and poor at communicating in 2010  Ed Miliband was seen as weak and nerdy in 2015 loss.  Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn had role reversals in 2017 which helped to change result.  2019, BoJo seen as much better than Jeremy Corbyn

Media Media comes in three forms:

Broadcasting: Broadcasters by law have to remain neutral, but due to the live interviews and debates they can still be decisive in swaying voters:  Ed Miliband was seen to have performed poorly in 2015- ‘Hell Yes I’m Tough Enough’  Theresa May lost much of her authority in poor media appearances after social care u-turn and refusing to turn up to debates.  Nick Clegg did very well in 2010 debates to help Lib Dem Polls (but Lib Dems still lost seats that election)  Debates were seen as quite dull in 2019, so no big change to anything.

Press: Our newspapers do not need to be impartial can be seen to be very biased in their reporting, however 2017 suggests their influence is reducing.  Newspapers previouslt helped to se the agenda and ensured we remembered events- 1979 ‘Crisis what Crisis?’  Newspapers such as the Sun have previously launched successful campaigns against Labour leaders- Neil Kinnock in 1992 and Ed Miliband in 2015 (Both lost elections).  Newspapers help to influence valence  Look at 1997 and 2017 case studies for stats.  In 2017 Corbyn managed to overcome bad press to improve (Remember front page- Cor-Bin)

Social Media: Relatively new on the scene, adverts on Facebook, Twitter and Snapchat are becoming much more important.  In 2015 Tories outspent Labour on Social Media in key marginals.  2017 saw massive social media campaign from Labour and groups such as Momentum: o 39% of 18-24 said Facebook and Twitter are their main forms of information in 2017 election. 50% said Social Media was most important factor on vote. o This Momentum video was watched 5.4 million times on Facebook in just two days!  2019 Social Media dominated by Labour with higher spending, follows, retweets etc. Yet… Tories still win the election!

CASE STUDIES:

1979

Context: ■ Labour limped into the election, as they lost a ■ Occurred less than 6 months after the winter of vote of confidence (More than half the House discontent: of Commons said they had no confidence in the ■ Bins Government) ■ Electricity ■ This meant they had to have a vote! ■ Can’t bury the dead!

Result: Party Seats won Change % of Votes won Change

Conservative 339 +63 43.9 +8.1 Labour 269 -50 36.9 -2.3 Liberal 11 +1 13.8 -4.5 Others 16 +5 5.4 -1.4 Turnout 76% Gender: Party Men Women Conservative 43 47 Labour 40 35 Liberal 13 15 Age: Party 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ Conservative 42 43 46 47 Labour 41 38 35 38 Liberal 12 15 15 13 Class: Party ABC1 C2 DE Conservative 59 41 34 Labour 24 41 49 Liberal 15 15 13

C2 is a massive change! Was 26% Tory and 49% Labour in 1974- Partisan Dealignment had begun. Other Factors: Valence  Labour were seen to not be able to control trade unions, had ruined economy, were chaotic (had lost vote of no confidence) and were anti aspiration  Tories were seen to be the party of aspiration and said there ahd been a ‘sea change’ for Mrs. Thatcher  Winter of Discontet was the winter before the election.

Economic  Economy was stagnating- Inflation was up to 28%.  Labour had to go to the IMF for a loan in 1976- embarrassing.  ‘Crisis what Crisis?’

Media  Sun came out very strongly Anti-Labour with headlines of ‘Crisis what Crisis?’  Saatchi and Saatchi made the adverts/posters for Tories. The advert Labour Isn’t Working was seen to win the election. Policies  Labour said it would impose a pay freeze, but they had already failed to do this.  Tories said they would cut tax to help economy. Party  James Callaghan was seen as much more popular being 20% ahead of Thatcher BUT Leaders still lost election.

1997 Context: ■ 18 years of Conservative rule- Tories were now ■ Tory Party was seen as incompetent (Black led by John Major who possessed a very small Wednesday in 1992) and sleaze riddled (sex majority. He was seen as weak with Tory MPs scandals and cash for questions) trying to dictate the laws and the problem of ■ Labour had been transformed by Tony Blair into Europe was splitting the Party. “Weak, Weak, New Labour. They were the new Centrist Party Weak” and looked set to win- with polls having them ahead for a long time (ahead since 1993)

1997 Results- All are % percentages Party Vote Change Labour 44 +9 Conservative 31 -12 Lib Dem 17 -1 Other 7 +3.4 It was a landslide! Labour won 418 seats compared to 165 Tory seats! Gender Party Men Women Labour 45 44 Conservative 31 32 Lib Dem 17 28

Age Age Labour Tory Lib Dem 18-24 49 27 16 25-34 49 28 16 35-44 48 28 17 45-54 41 31 20 55-64 39 36 17 65+ 41 36 17

Class Class Labour Tory Lib Dem AB 31 41 6 C1 37 37 8 C2 50 27 7 DE 59 21 7

Region Region Labour Tory Lib Dem Scotland 45 18 13 North 61 22 13 Yorks and Humb 52 28 16 North West 54 27 14 Wales 55 20 12 West Midlands 48 34 14 East Midlands 48 35 13 East Anglia 38 39 18 South West 26 37 31 South East 32 41 21 Greater London 49 31 15

Newspaper Paper Labour Tory Lib Dem The Express (Tory) 29 49 16 (Tory) 29 49 14 Daily Mirror (Labour) 72 14 11 Daily Telegraph (Tory) 20 57 17 FT (Labour) 29 48 19 Guardian (Labour) 67 8 22 Independent (Labour) 47 16 30 Daily Star (Labour) 66 17 12 The Sun (Labour) 52 30 12 (Neutral) 28 42 25

Ethnicity Ethnicity Labour Tory Lib Dem White 43 32 18 All Non-White 70 18 9 Asian 66 22 9 Black 82 12 5

Other Factors: Valence  Tories had been in power for 18 years  Tories were seen as party of sleaze (Sex scandals, Cash for Questions. The party of economic incompetence (Black Wednesday) and divided over Europe  Labour had been transformed into the new and exciting New Labour  They were seen as the option for change, united by a modern vision and trustworthy (Pledge card) and having overcome problems of 1970s.  Labour had been ahead in polls since 1993 Economic  Tories had seen the demise of the economy, after Black Wendesday in 1992.  The country was in recession  Taxes had been raised. Media  Look at how nearly all papers supported Labour- even the Sun!  But traditional Tory papers did not manage to convince their voters.  Massive broadcasting campaign ‘Things Can Only Get Better’ Policies  Most important policy areas were NHS and Education- Labour were seen to be best on these.  Tories focused on defence, but no voters were that interested.  Labour had pledge cards of how they would: Cut class sizes, not raise tax, cut NHS waiting times, stopping youth crime and funds to get under 25 Year Olds off benefits. Party  Blair was seen as a young dynamic leader who had a rating of +45 Leaders  John Major was seen as weak, and unable to command the country had a rating of -20

2017 Context: ■ There was not supposed to be a general ■ She said the election was for ensuring Brexit election until 2020. had a strong mandate and to strengthen her ■ Theresa May announces the election as a hand in negotiating. massive surprise on 18th of April (Just after ■ Everyone thought this was an open goal for Easter Weekend) Theresa May- Like 1997 for Labour- everyone ■ She has a poll lead of +20 over Labour who believed that campaigns change nothing. were seen as divided and led by the hopeless Jeremy Corbyn

Results- Party Vote Change Labour 40 +5.5 Conservative 42.4 +9.6 Lib Dem 7.4 -0.5 Other 10.2 / !!! Theresa May loses her majority! SHOCK! Gender Party Men Women Labour 40 42 Conservative 44 43 Lib Dem 7 8

Age Age Labour Tory Lib Dem 18-24 62 27 5 25-34 56 27 9 35-44 49 33 10 45-54 40 43 7 55-64 34 51 7 65+ 25 61 7

Class Class Labour Tory Lib Dem AB 37 47 10 C1 40 44 7 C2 41 45 6 DE 47 38 5

Doesn’t show it, but massive swings to Labour in AB and C1 Region Region Labour Tory Lib Dem Scotland 28.6 27.1 6.8 (SNP-36.9) North East 55.4 34.4 4.6 Yorks and Humb 49 40.5 5.0 North West 54.9 36.2 5.4 Wales 48.9 33.6 4.5 (PC- 10.4) West Midlands 42.5 49 4.4 East Midlands 40.5 50.7 4.3 East Anglia 54.6 32.7 7.9 South West 29.1 51.4 14.9 South East 28.6 53.8 10.5 Greater London 33.1 54.5 8.8

Newspaper Paper Labour Tory Lib Dem The Express (Tory) 15 77 / Daily Mail (Tory) 17 74 3 Daily Mirror (Labour) 68 19 3 Daily Telegraph (Tory) 12 79 6 FT (Tory) 39 40 14 Guardian (Labour) 73 8 12 Independent (Neutral) 66 15 12 Daily Star (Neutral) 49 38 6 The Sun (Tory) 30 59 3 The Times (Tory) 24 58 14

Ethnicity Ethnicity Labour Tory Lib Dem White 39 45 8 BME 73 19 6

Other Factors:

Valence  Before:  After:  Tory party were seen as:  Tory party were seen as: o o Weak and Wobbly o Would help to put through Brexit o Indecisive o Were united behind Theresa May o Not willing to debate  Labour Party were seen as:  Labour Party were seen as: o Back to Lefty old ways (the o Listening to the people 1970s!) o Having a strong leader o Weak leader o Momentum was with them o Divided party Events of  Theresa May U-Turn on Social Care: May announced that if you earned over a certain Campaign amount you would need to pay for social care- and there would be no cap.This was unpopular and deemed the ‘dementia tax’ this was then reversed..  Terror attacks: Would usually help Tories who were strong on defence, but instead made people focus on cuts to police, which Tories had done. Allowed Labour to make their spending plans look patriotic. (REMEMBER THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE BREXIT ELECTION!)  Debates/Media: Theresa May ran away from all one on one debates (had become tradition by that point) Jeremy Corbyn came across very well in appearances and helped to improve his standing. Economic  Wages had begun to decline which influenced many to vote against the tories  Inflation also up Media  Seem to have less of an impact than usual- FT and Sun have many Labour voters despite recommendations.  Social Media election- 39% of 18-24 said Facebook and Twitter are their main forms of information in 2017 election. 50% said Social Media was most important factor on vote Policies  Theresa May wanted the main policy area to be Brexit, nbut NHS and education were also seen as important.  While Tories were seen as better on Brext, Labour were seen as better on NHS and Education.  Labour’s manifesto did well with anti-austerity, public spending and tuition fees promise. Party  Initially May enjoyed a healthy lead, but as campaign wore on Corbyn began to catch Leaders up before overtaking her before the election.  leader of was very popular and did very well in Scotland

2019 Context: ■ There was not supposed to be a general ■ He renegotiated the Brexit Deal, to get rid of election until 2024. the backstop (rather N.Ireland would stay in the ■ Boris Johnson became Prime Minister in July customs union) but wasn’t able to get it passed. 2019 after the resignation of T May. ■ He therefore asked for an election to be held ■ He inherited her lack of majority and found it and the opposition parties agreed. Despite very difficult to pass legislation- didn’t win a Johnson enjoying a lead in the polls (average of vote for his first 6 weeks 10%) ■ Johnson had boosted polling due to dedication to Brexit (prorogue of Parliament etc.)

Results- Party Vote Change Seats Labour 32.2 -7.8 202 (-60) Conservative 43.6 +1.2 365 (+48) Lib Dem 11.6 +4.2 11 (-1) Other 12.6 / SNP improve and got 48/59 Scottish seats. Brexit Party receive 2% of the vote and Green Party 2.7% Gender Party Men Women Labour 31 35 Conservative 46 44 Lib Dem 12 11

Age Age Labour Tory Lib Dem 18-24 56 21 11 25-34 54 23 12 35-44 46 30 14 45-54 35 41 13 55-64 28 49 12 60-69 22 57 11 70+ 14 67 11 Crossover point in 2017 was 47, now in 2019 it is 39 Class Class Labour Tory Lib Dem AB 32 42 16 C1 34 43 12 C2 31 (-10! Huge drop) 49 9 DE 34 (-13! Huge drop) 47 (+9!) 8 Huge changes in C2 and DE! Brexit and new working class Conservatives! Region Region Labour Tory Lib Dem Scotland 28.6 27.1 6.8 (SNP-36.9) North East 42.6 (-12!) 38.3 7.9 Yorks and Humb 38.8 (-10!) 43 8 North West 46.4 (-7.6!) 37.6 7.9 Wales 48.9 33.6 4.5 (PC- 10.4) West Midlands 33.9 (-8.6) 53.5 7.9 East Midlands 31.8 (-8.6!) 54.9 7.8 East Anglia 24.5% (-8.3!) 57.2 13.4 South West 23.3 52.9 18.1 South East 22.1 54.2 18.3 Greater London 48.1 32 14.9

Ethnicity Ethnicity Labour Tory Lib Dem White 29 48 12 BME 64 20 12

Other Factors:

Valence  Tory party were seen as united behind the new enthusiastic leader in Boris Johnson. Seen as getting Brexit done (New Deal, kicking Tories out, proroguing Parliament)  Labour still seen as divided (lots of MPs stepping down instead of supporting Corbyn, even deputy leader Tom Watson stood down!) Seen as un-patriotic due to numerous events since 2017- Salisbury Poisoning, Nuclear deterrenc etc. Labour also seen as anti- semitic and anti-Brexit.

Events of  Tories went in expecting a majority and very little occurred to change this! Campaign  Debates/Media: Corbyn refused to apologise for anti-semitism on Andrew Neill interview. BoJo didn’t even go. Debates were seen as repetitive and poor- Corbyn focusing on NHS and BoJo focusing on Brexit

Media  Majority of papers backed Boris Johnson and the Conservatives as always. Only Daily Mirror and Guardian back Labour.  Social Media dominated by Labour with higher spending, follows, retweets etc. Yet… Tories still win the election! Policies  Labour’s manifesto was very similar to 2017, so lacked any real impact…. Second referendum used to please both sides, but seen as un-decisive. Embarrassing moment where Corbyn claimed he would be neutral in the event of a referendum.  Big focus on NHS and Education, but salience of Brexit was higher.  Conservative’s manifesto was light on detail, main focus was ‘’. After chaos of Brexit it became an attractice policy. Party  Jeremy Corbyn was historically unpopular (-50…) Boris Johnson was unpopular but Leaders much less so (-10) and was seen as backing Brexit (after leading 2016 campaign)

4.2 The influence of the media

 See above for influence of Newspapers, TV and Social Media.

Opinion Polls Opinion polls are taken throughout to gauge the mood of the public- main companies are YouGov, Survation, and Ipsos-Mori. Problems:  Media pay massive attention to them and make them front page news which can influence  Opinion polls have incorrectly predicted 2015, 2017 and 2016 referendum.  Voters can change due to polls: o The likelihood of a Labour SNP coalition was exaggerated by polls in 2015 and may have caused people to vote Tory. o The low polling of Labour may have made Tory voters not vote in 2017 and made Labour voters who didn’t like Corbyn not worry about him winning. o Can affect turnout  Parties can change due to polling- May U-turn on social care.

Ban Polls Keep Polls  They can influence the way people vote as  Would infringe on freedom of expression seen in 2015 election.  If banned only private organisations will be  They have been inaccurate and misled able to use them and profit from them (can public. predict economic changes)  They affect politicians and campaigns too  Polls help to guide and inform politicians. much.  Would still be published abroad  Allow Media to obsess and claim things without real evidence

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