The First-Class, the Familiar and the Forgettable: An analysis of Prime Ministerial performance in New Zealand By Katherine Anna-Clare Smith A thesis Submitted to the Victoria University of Wellington In fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Political Science School of History, Philosophy, Political Science & International Relations Victoria University of Wellington 2019 2 Table of Contents Acknowledgements 5 Abstract 7 Tables and Figures 9 Chapter One: Thesis Overview 11 Thesis Aims 12 Thesis Structure 13 Chapter Two: Literature Review 17 Components of Political Leadership 17 Leadership Ranking Scholarship in New Zealand 22 Sheppard 1998 22 Johansson and Levine 2011 27 Leadership Ranking Scholarship in the United States of America 31 Schlesinger Ranking Studies 1948, 1962, 1996 31 Other Ranking Studies 33 Leadership Ranking Scholarship in the rest of the world 37 United Kingdom 37 Canada 42 Australia 46 Chapter Three: Methodology 49 Chapter Four: Data and Analysis 55 The initial responses 55 Calculation of results 56 The 2018 study: A replication of the Sheppard (1998) and Johansson and Levine (2011) methodology 57 An alternative survey: A replication of the Schlesinger (1948, 1962 and 1996) methodology 60 A new survey: the analysis of generational shifts and recall rates 62 Pols 111: The entry-level student perspective 62 Pols 353: The final year Bachelor’s student perspective 64 Pols 428: The postgraduate perspective 67 3 Chapter Five: Discussion 69 Replication of multi question methods 69 Contrast with 1998 and 2011 results 69 The top three 75 The new entrants: Key and English 80 The best Prime Minister New Zealand ‘never had’ 82 The Schlesinger Models 82 Single question methods versus multi question methods 83 The wildcard: Robert Muldoon 88 The generational shift: a new survey 90 The impact of the ‘recency effect’ 93 ‘The first class, the familiar and the forgettable’: A new way of ranking 95 Chapter Six: Limitations and Future Studies 99 Limitations 99 Cultural Limitations 99 Data Limitations 101 Methodological Limitations 103 Future studies 105 Chapter Seven: Conclusion 107 Appendices 111 Appendix 1 Information Sheet for Participants (Survey 1) 111 Appendix 2 Survey 1: Replication of Sheppard (1998), and Johansson and Levine (2011) 115 Appendix 3 Information Sheet for Participants (Survey 2) 117 Appendix 4 Survey 2: Replication of Schlesinger methods 120 Appendix 5 Survey 3: Testing generational shifts and recall rates 122 Appendix 6 List of initial sample 123 Appendix 7 Email to participants 125 Appendix 8 Email to Bessie Sutherland (Association of Former Members of Parliament) 126 Bibliography 127 4 Acknowledgements This work has not been accomplished without the help of significant people in my life, and it only feels fitting to pay my due respects towards them. Firstly, gratitude and thanks must be paid to my supervisor, Professor Stephen Levine. Your guidance and supervision have been invaluable, and I am extremely grateful that unexpected circumstances led to you supervising this thesis. Not once would I leave one of our meetings without a new idea or approach towards this research, or at least an interesting story. I am glad that you will remember me as the student with the same name as the famous singer that sang ‘God Bless America’. Thanks must also be paid to Dr. Jon Johansson and Dr. Chris Eichbaum. Without your help and guidance over the past 6 years, I am unsure if I would have succeeded as much as I have. There are a lot of people in my life I wish to pay thanks to, but some stand out in particular. Gen, Aedan, Matthew, Brodie, Kaitlin and my flatmates: thanks for having faith in me when I didn’t, and for being some of the best support I could have had over the last few years. You are some of the greatest friends one could ask for, and I am so proud of you all and excited to see what you do with your lives. To the entire team at The Warehouse Tory Street: thank you for being wonderful co-workers, and for being extremely considerate about my hectic university schedule. You have been a breath of fresh air every weekend amongst the chaos that is postgraduate study. To everyone who has helped with any part of this thesis – whether it be teaching me how to use Microsoft Excel and format properly, proof-reading my rough drafts, or just offering to give me a hand at some stage – you have no idea how much I appreciate you. I’m sure this final piece wouldn’t look as good as it does now without your help. Lastly, this thesis is dedicated to my mother Lynley, my father Simon, and my sister Laura. When I graduated with my honours degree, I said that over the past few years you have seen me at my worst, but that you have also seen me at my best. I stand by this completely. Thank you for being the biggest support system I could have ever wished for, for pushing me to do more, and for putting up with a sometimes-insufferable daughter and sister. Everything I have done over the past 6 years has been for you. I hope I’ve made you proud. 5 6 Abstract Within the literature associated with political leadership, scholarship directly focused upon political performance in office is thinly conducted, both in New Zealand and in other areas across the world. This thesis aims to greater understand political leadership and performance in New Zealand, and address the gaps in the literature correlated with Prime Ministerial performance. To do this, this thesis provides a current list of rankings of former Premiers and Prime Ministers in New Zealand and identifies the dimensions that one must fulfil to display exceptional performance in office. To undertake this research, this thesis uses a series of surveys – distributed to students at Victoria University of Wellington, and to other individuals with a professional interest in politics and history in New Zealand – to best assess public perceptions towards political performance. Building upon the path dependency created by former exercises of the same nature in New Zealand (conducted by Simon Sheppard in 1998, and by Jon Johansson and Stephen Levine in 2011), this thesis provides a snapshot of the current public perceptions of outstanding political performance. In a similar nature to the earlier studies, this thesis identifies the dimensions of longevity, death in office, and being a ‘big change’ or crisis Prime Minister as being directly correlated with elevated performance in office. Additionally, this thesis investigates whether a series of variables – namely time between exercises in New Zealand, and the appearance of a possible recency effect– provide any influence or change over results. Additionally, this thesis moves outside the scope of exercises conducted previously in New Zealand, by ranking Prime Ministerial performance using a series of different methodologies. In conjunction with a replication of the exercises already conducted in New Zealand, this survey also assesses Prime Ministerial performance by using a survey based upon the well-cited Schlesinger ranking studies in the United States, and a third survey aimed to assess political shifts and levels of knowledge and recall rates amongst university students. Regardless of such factors, the results of this thesis remain consistent with previous exercises, with Michael Savage, Richard Seddon, Helen Clark and Peter Fraser being regarded by the political and academic elite across all surveys as embodying the highest qualities of successful political leadership in New Zealand. 7 8 Tables and Figures Table 2.1. Results of 1998 study by overall appraisal of performance 25 Table 2.2. Results of 1998 study by mean score of performance categories 26 Table 2.3. Results of 2011 study by overall appraisal of performance 28 Table 2.4. Results of 2011 study by mean score of performance categories 29 Table 2.5. Results of Presidential Ranking Studies in the United States 35 Table 2.6. Results of Prime Ministerial Ranking Studies in the United Kingdom 40 Table 2.7. Results of Prime Ministerial Ranking Studies in Canada 45 Table 2.8. Results of Prime Ministerial Ranking Studies in Australia 49 Table 3.1. Premiers/Prime Ministers with less than six months in office or who never fought an election 52 Table 4.1. Results of 2018 survey by overall appraisal of performance 57 Table 4.2. Results of 2018 survey by mean score of performance categories 59 Table 4.3. Results of 2018 survey following the Schlesinger method 60 Table 4.4. Pols 111: Best and Worst Prime Ministers (March 2018) 63 Table 4.5. Pols 353: Best and Worst Prime Ministers (March 2018) 64 Table 4.6. Pols 353: Best and Worst Prime Ministers (June 2018) 66 Table 4.7. Pols 428: Best and Worst Prime Ministers (March 2018) 68 Table 5.1. Comparison of 1998, 2011 and 2018 results by overall appraisal of performance 70 Table 5.2. Comparison of 1998, 2011 and 2018 results by overall mean score of performance categories 73 Table 5.3. Comparison of Savage Rankings 1998/2011/2018 75 Table 5.4. Comparison of Clark Rankings 2011/2018 77 Table 5.5. Comparison of Seddon Rankings 1998/2011/2018 78 Table 5.6. Comparison of 2018 results with results following Schlesinger methodology 84 Table 5.7. Breakdown of student assessment by position of political party 93 Table 5.8. ‘The First-Class, the Familiar, and the Forgettable’ 95 9 10 Chapter One: Thesis Overview New Zealand is prominently recognized on a global scale for many things, whether it be our participation in sports, or our ‘clean green’ image that is frequently cited in other countries across the world.