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Dealing with Political Uncertainty in the Aftermath of Brexit

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Dealing with Political Uncertainty in the Aftermath of Brexit ODUMUNC 2021 Issue Brief House of Commons Dealing with Political Uncertainty in the Aftermath of Brexit Nathan Overton ODU Model United Nations Society Introduction The problems of Brexit are unlike anything the House of Commons has faced since it was created in the 14th Century. Evolving with the government and the needs of the British people over the past 6 centuries, Commons developed from offering advice to the King and court, to become the center of English Government. Today, under the leadership of the Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his solid majority of Conservative Party Members of Parliament (MPs), Commons struggles to lead the United Kingdom from its withdrawal from the European Union, which became official on 31 January 2020. That day, the EU shrank from 28 to 27 Member States, and the UK restored the economic and social independence it gave up when it joined in 1975. But the consequences of Brexit remain massive, poorly understood, controversial and unresolved. The UK’s relationship with the EU—its dominant trading partner—and major Brexit: The First Issue issues like control over ports, relations with other partners like the United States, and above Brexit, Britain’s withdrawal from the European all the delicate relationships between London, Union (EU), has been the overwhelming issue of Northern Ireland and Scotland, remain uncertain. British politics ever since it was discussed in a If mishandled, the process could leave the UK speech by then-Member of Parliament David isolated, impoverished, and smaller with the loss Cameron’s in 2013. No issue in modern politics of Scotland. Additionally, it could lead to the has divided the people of the United Kingdom resumption of armed conflict over the future of more sharply. It cast a dark shadow North Ireland. These are the challenges facing internationally, as the first successful initiative the Members of Parliament (MPs). of populist politics in a wave that has affected virtually every democracy around the world since. Brexit, or ‘British Exit’, withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, has been a complicated process in attempting to secure the United Kingdom’s exit in a fair and Dealing with Political Uncertainty in the Aftermath of Brexit favorable deal toward all parties involved. Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty starting the Whereas mention of the United Kingdom processes for the United Kingdom to leave the leaving the European Union brought about European Union which included,a two-year national attention at its time of announcement, it negotiation period ensured that the rights of EU was not until David Cameron’s successful citizens left in the United Kingdom would election as Prime Minister in 2015 that Brexit remain the same, and that enough time existed to became the overwhelming issue of the properly negotiate an exit from the European government. Reflecting long-standing Union. unhappiness within his ruling Conservative Party with EU membership, Cameron pressed an issue sure to attract controversy. Keeping his word to the people in an effort to deliver, Cameron and his Conservative Government quickly announced that a national referendum would be held a year later in 2016 to determine the public favorability toward leaving the European Union. Despite the possible appearance of a peaceful transition period of two years, this transition period resulted in three different changes of Government, four different Brexit deals, three of which failed to gain majority support, and a time of political headache and uncertainty for all. After the activation of Article 50, Theresa May called for general snap elections in an attempt to How Brexit advocates saw the choice: either/or bolster the Conservative majority in Parliament to pass the upcoming Brexit deals. Unfortunately To the great surprise of many observers, the for May, Conservatives lost the majority in people of the United Kingdom voted in favor of Parliament and had to form a coalition leaving the European Union under a very slim Government with the Northern Irish Democratic majority, 51.9% to leave versus 48.1% to Unionist Party. With a parliamentary majority in remain. The vote revealed the sharp division and hand, Theresa May proceeded with initial EU foreshadowed the confusing, dramatic, and in negotiations in June of 2017, ultimately resulting times childish processes to come. in a deadlock between both sides. Unable to get the European Union to compromise and in an Prime Minister David Cameron, who approved effort to promote cooperation between both the referendum not because he supported it, but sides, Theresa May publicized the main issues of to mollify and silence his internal opponents, Brexit, many of which members of the European resigned as Prime Minister. The ruling Union agreed upon. Now under a moment of Conservatives replaced him with Theresa May cooperation, Theresa May and the European and a new Conservative Government that would Union each issued statements of agreement, lead the charge in delivering Britain's exit from leading to the creation of an official withdrawal the European Union. Theresa May activated agreement months later. 2 Dealing with Political Uncertainty in the Aftermath of Brexit Although the news of an Brexit agreement Running hot off the heels of his resignation as between the United Kingdom and the European Foreign Secretary under Theresa May, Boris Union would bring joy to the hardline Brexiters Johnson became one of the leading candidates in in Parliament, overwhelming criticisms over the the race to replace Theresa May, eventually finite details of this arrangement led to calls for gaining enough support within the Conservative a new Government, a vote of no confidence, and Party to become Prime Minister. While under the resignation of several Members and the direction of Boris Johnson, Brexit Secretaries of Parliament. Undeterred by a vote negotiations shifted from that of finding a deal of no confidence in her own party and bolstered acceptable to all, to that of getting Brexit done. by the EU’s endorsement of the Withdrawal In an attempt to pass any Brexit deal while under agreement, Theresa May pushed forward with his administration, Boris Johnson shortened the introducing the agreement as a bill to be voted time allocated to Parliament to debate Brexit, a upon in Parliament. Unfortunately for Theresa move considered unconstitutional by some and and her Government, the original withdrawal dangerous by others. Despite Johnson’s promise agreement failed with an overwhelming majority to the people of the United Kingdom that Brexit of 432 Members of Parliament voting against the would be done before the agreed upon deadline proposed agreement, the largest defeat of a of the 31 October 2019, Johnson was forced by Prime Minister in history. Theresa May and her Parliament to send a letter asking the European Government would push forward twice more Union for an extension after losing the vote on with their attempts to settle a Brexit deal, both his deal in Parliament. times resulting in a failure to gain the support and consent of Parliament. On the heels of her Granted an extension by the European Union, third and final defeat in Parliament, Theresa the date that the United Kingdom would May resigned as Prime Minister citing her officially leave had been set for 31 January inability to gain Parliament’s favor, ultimately 2020. Under immense public pressure to see paving the way for new Conservative leadership Brexit through, Boris Johnson called for an to push the United Kingdom through the finish election to try and regain a Conservative line. majority in Parliament in an effort to pass an upcoming Brexit deal. Campaigning heavily under the promise to “get Brexit done,” Boris Johnson was able to gain his Conservative majority by flipping a number of Labour constituencies referred to as the “red wall.” These industrial constituencies though traditionally Labour, had been bought on the Conservative promises of Brexit to return financial growth and stability to their regions. Emboldened with his new majority, Boris Johnson pushed through Parliament with a new Brexit deal. Taking criticism from several Social distant House of Commons1 1 George Lythgoe, ‘South Cumbria MPs Simon https://www.nwemail.co.uk/news/18720885.sout Fell and Tim Farron react to controversial Brexit h-cumbria-mps-simon-fell-tim-farron-react- bill in House of Commons’, The Mail, 15 controversial-brexit-bill-house-commons/ September 2020, 3 Dealing with Political Uncertainty in the Aftermath of Brexit Members of Parliament as his new deal had been United Kingdom left the European Union on 31 that of Theresa May’s, but with the creation of a January 2020, and entered into a 2-year Customs Union to negate the issues of an “Irish transition period to negotiate next steps with the Backstop,” Boris Johnson was able to world. pass his Brexit deal in a historic 358 majority vote. With a deal now ratified by Parliament, the Reasons to Leave constituencies, and opinions on why the United Kingdom should leave the European Union. Despite being a member of the European Union for 47 years, calls to leave the European Union Starting with the financial aspect of Brexit, as had been well present before David Cameron’s part of being a member of the European Union, speech in 2013. Stemming from a wide range of the United Kingdom had to agree to be in the issues each speaking to a niche voting base of European Union’s single market. The European the British Public, these issues had been placed Single Goods Market is an agreement between into three different categories: financial, member nations recognizing that international political, and social. These three categories borders and the tariffs and customs that exist represented a multitude of concerns, between them should no longer hinder trade.
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