Boris Keeps Swinging….. By Steven McCabe, Associate Professor, Institute of Design and Economic Acceleration (IDEA) and Senior Fellow, Centre for Brexit Studies, Birmingham City University The title of this blog is based on David Bowie’s 1979 single, ‘Boys Keep Swinging’, from his album Lodger. This song contains opening lines that seem apposite to Tory Party leadership contender, Boris Johnson, “Heaven loves ya, The clouds part for ya, Nothing stands in your way,….” Until last the early hours of last Friday, it appeared, Boris Johnson’s path to becoming the next leader of the Conservative Party and, of course, Prime Minister (PM) looked all but certain. As one wag quipped, “the only thing that could stop Boris was Boris himself.” As the saying goes, never a truer word spoken in jest! Becoming PM is, according to those who know him well, the prize Johnson has long believed himself to be entitled to. If he does indeed make it to No 10 Downing Street it will prove to be a journey that has been far from straightforward and, if nothing else, demonstrate Johnson’s tenacity in striving to achieve this position. As many are asking after last Friday’s much publicised ‘domestic dispute’ with partner Carrie Symonds in the flat they share in Camberwell, does Johnson have the personality and temperament to become PM? As those who have looked at Johnson’s political career attest, his past is somewhat chequered and he has been involved in a series of incidents that would have undermined the career aspirations of most people let alone someone who wishes to become PM . The reason we are in the midst of another leadership contest for the Conservative Party is due to Europe. The result of the EU referendum that took place three ago on 23 June 2016 ended David Cameron’s tenure as PM. His successor, Theresa May, became leader after a contest during which the other four challengers were either eliminated or withdrew after two rounds of voting by Conservative MPs. It’s frequently overlooked that the favourite to become Tory leader in 2016, as is the case now, Boris Johnson, never got as far as being subject to being voted on by his fellow Conservative MPs. His co- campaigner for leave, Michael Gove, with whom Johnson had worked intimately, made a statement that has since been described by The Telegraph as political assassination. Gove, in a statement that was intended to be excoriating claimed that Johnson could not “provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead.” This caused Johnson’s immediate withdrawal from the contest and, it can safely presumed, created the sense of mistrust and mutual loathing that, it’s widely speculated, led to the ‘lending of votes’ last week the resulted in Gove being eliminated. Instead the contest to select the next PM will be between either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt who, it is rumoured was the preferred candidate of those supporting Johnson and avoids the possibility of a potential psychodrama between two individuals with huge egos. And in a first for the Conservative Party, these two candidates will be elected by the votes of the estimated 160,000 Conservative Party members. Though members of the European Research Group led by Jacob Rees Mogg and Mark Francois are the bellicose face of the Conservative Party, and those who vehemently against anything other than a ‘hard’ Brexit and most certainly not in favour of Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement (WA), a good many other are much less strident in their views. Such Conservative MPs are not inclined to engage in the sort of rebellious behaviour exhibited by members of the ERG and were perfectly happy to support the WA to ensure an orderly departure from the EU. Recent events aside, Johnson should still be pretty optimistic about his prospects among the members. The hard part was seen as ensuring that he remained as detached from the normal hustle and bustle of campaigning seen by, most particularly, Rory Stewart. The essential thing was to get to the ballot paper that will be decided by Conservative Party. According to EPSRC-funded research into membership of the Conservative Party members conducted last year when there were 124,000 a study – a significant reduction from the 3 million in the early 1950s – over half of these members are aged over 55 and largely made up of the middle-class. The members of the Tory Party who are going to decide on the person who will oversee the next stage of the Brexit process are, unsurprisingly, far more right-wing than the population in general and, crucially for Johnson, they are more likely to be aligned with members of the ERG than the majority of ‘average’ Conservative MPs. Indeed, research shows that these members agree with the view of ERG that Theresa May was far too compliant with the EU during negotiations. According to a YouGov poll, 84% of Conservative Party members want to see a leader, ideally Johnson, who will be prepared to countenance a ‘no-deal’ departure from the EU. Alarmingly, for members who would be assumed to be dedicated to the protection of business interests and what is good for the economy, the YouGov poll discovered that 61% would be happy to see the economy “sustain significant economic damage” as long as the UK leaves the EU. The YouGov poll threw up other startling statistics including the fact that 63% of Tory members saw the end of the union between England and Scotland as worth it to achieve Brexit. Slightly fewer (59%) believed ending the union between England and Northern Ireland was a price worth paying to achieve Brexit. Perhaps the most amazing statistic that emerges from the YouGov poll is that in order to achieve a break from the EU, 54% of Conservative Party members would be willing to see their party destroyed. As some have pointed out, being a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party has clearly altered in recent times. Writing on The Independent website on Sunday, Simon Allison who is chairman of Citizens for Britain, the group behind the Tories Against Brexit campaign makes plain his exasperation at the changes in attitude among members of the party he belongs to: “The Conservatives have been the party of economic rectitude for as long as I’ve been a member – over 30 years – and we are also supposed to be the Unionist party, determined to keep the UK together. However, today, the membership base doesn’t care about the union or the economy; all it cares about is leaving the EU. “Over the last three years, via attrition and infiltration, our party structure has been taken over and the policy base that has sustained it for half a century overturned by people who, to judge by the people whose votes they seek, are not true Conservatives” Using data from a Survation poll carried out in 2015 showing that only 32% of Conservative Party member wished to see a ‘no-deal’ ad that 51% did not wish to be worse off, Allison acknowledges an increasing misalignment between those who belong to party and those who vote for it: “…we have a situation where a majority of traditional Conservative voters don’t want to be worse off due to Brexit – but a massive majority of Conservative members are not bothered, and where 84 per cent of these members want to impose a policy of no deal which two thirds of their own voter base reject!” However, as many Tory MPs, fearful of their prospects at any election are fully aware, there is a threat from Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party. As recent elections – local and EU – have shown, the Tory party’s inability under Theresa May to have achieved Brexit by the 29th March is seen to make it look weak. This is where Johnson, who has stated categorically that he will be happy to walk away with ‘no-deal’ by the next deadline of 31st October, proves to be so potent as putative leader. Jeremy Hunt, whatever his credentials as a self-made entrepreneur who is willing to embrace the dynamic opportunities that are supposedly available after the UK leaves the EU, is dismissed among many members of the Conservative Party as “Theresa May in trousers”; he, like her, admits to having voted to remain but claims to have been converted. Hunt’s protestations that the UK leaving without a deal will potentially result in economic chaos and that more time may be needed to achieve a workable and effective deal may have proved popular among many MPs, but will cut no mustard with the members. Some may think that given the intractable views of members, his main role was simply to be the second name on the ballot paper. Whatever Johnson’s spat with his partner may be forgotten in the ‘cut and thrust’ of the rolling news agenda. Nonetheless, Boris Johnson is a man who divides opinion and, given that he is highly likely to be selected by members of the Tory party as the next PM, his suitability to this role is once again being considered. Boris Johnson is, one level, a strange and enigmatic figure. Some argue that his peculiar brand of charisma is what makes him so attractive to voters. Others believe that he is too mercurial. Critics cite numerous incidents in his past that demonstrate he is simply overindulged and contend he displays the characteristics of narcissist. Even at Eton, to which he was admitted after winning a scholarship, he had made an impression as his housemaster, Martin Hammond, wrote in a school report in 1982: “I think he honestly believes it is churlish of us not to regard him as an exception, one who should be free of the network of obligation which binds everyone else.” Having won another scholarship to study Classics at Balliol College, Oxford, Johnson ensured that he continued to make an impression, joined the infamous Bullingdon Club, widely accepted to be an “upper- class drinking society known for vandalism”.