Reply Forward Reply Forward Re: The Northern Powerhouse’s swansong? Re: Healing the Conservative Party – a superhuman feat? APPROACH Rebrand and reboot ALLIES & INFLUENCERS APPROACH Bold, but potentially futile IMPACT/REACTION Neil O’Brien – Special adviser to the prime minister Although May had delayed explicitly endorsing Osborne’s ‘Northern Powerhouse’ Sajid Javid – Communities and local government secretary IMPACT/REACTION project, her vision for provincial centres is emerging through her ‘Industrial Greg Clark – Business, energy and industrial strategy secretary May must unite her parliamentary party in order to make a success of her slim Strategy’. Many hallmarks of her predecessor’s plans remain. It centres on boosting majority. Agreeing the terms of Brexit risks being a source of tension inside the productivity beyond the south-east by maximising the potential of local industries. party in the coming years, so her task is to identify areas of consensus for the She also confirmed her support for HS2, as well as HS3 which would connect the Conservatives that unsettle Labour. Beyond the Trident vote, an easy win in this east and west. There are however two distinct differences. Firstly, she recognises a respect, other crowd-pleasing policies may include: keeping a freeze on fuel duty, need to revive rural economies and market towns where people feel bypassed by reducing taxes, increased competition and rigour in teaching, and strong deficit the benefits of globalisation. Secondly, May is sceptical about elected mayors for reduction measures. Her team of advisers, as well George Freeman, Chair of the combined authorities, meaning no single individual will have power over Whitehall’s No.10 Policy Board, will take soundings from the backbenches to ensure success at funding. Nick Timothy, her joint chief of staff, is the driving force behind this THERESA MAY party conference. agenda. He has been vocal on empowering local communities to take control of their own economic and social success. WHAT’S IN HER INBOX? ALLIES & INFLUENCERS Chris Grayling – Leadership campaign manager Graham Brady – Chair of the 1922 committee THE INNER CIRCLE George Freeman – Chair of no.10 policy board Patrick Mcloughlin – Conservative party chairman Reply Forward Nick Timothy Joint chief of staff Re: How to successfully negotiate Brexit? Reply Forward APPROACH Cautious and reserved Fiona Hill Joint chief of staff Re: To be or not to be on Hinkley Point? IMPACT/REACTION May is in no rush to trigger Article 50, with a (late) 2017 date looking likely. Whilst Jean ALLIES & INFLUENCERS APPROACH Claude Junker presses for a speedy start to formal negotiations, May will want to All-ears to her inner circle ensure she has time to sell her brand of Brexit to colleagues and build bilateral John Godfrey Lord O’Neill – Commercial secretary to the Treasury relationships with Member States. This could help increase the likelihood of a Director of policy Liu Xiaoming – Chinese ambassador IMPACT/REACTION Baroness Neville-Rolfe – Minister for energy favourable negotiation and neutralise the Commission’s plans for a more punitive exit. and intellectual property There are complex dynamics underpinning May’s decision to delay a decision on May will also need to begin looking further afield to deepen trading relations with the Hinkley Point. Sino-British diplomatic relations, the high strike price of £92.50/MWh US, India, China, Australia and Canada if she is to make Brexit a success. agreed by Cameron and Osborne, and the UK’s long-term energy security are all Kate Perrior considerations that will influence her eventual decision. Nick Timothy, her joint Media spokesperson ALLIES & INFLUENCERS chief of staff, has expressed reservations about Chinese involvement in UK infrastructure, arguing it was buying “British silence on human rights abuses” and Michel Barnier – Brussel’s chief Brexit negotiator that “rational concerns about national security” were being “swept to one side”. David Davis – Brexit secretary Liam Fox – International trade secretary Will Tanner Sir Julian King – EU Commissioner Deputy Head, Prime Minister's Policy Unit Reply Forward Reply Forward ALLIES & INFLUENCERS Re: A change of tack on the economy? Re: Heathrow or Gatwick? Philip Hammond – Chancellor of the Exchequer David Gauke – Chief secretary to the Treasury Mark Carney – Governor of the Bank of England APPROACH APPROACH Poppy Trowbridge – Special adviser to Philip Hammond Maintain confidence, secure investment Further consideration required IMPACT/REACTION IMPACT/REACTION ALLIES & INFLUENCERS Although neither May nor new Chancellor Philip Hammond have ruled out a Theresa May has tasked herself with ending the long running debate about UK airport continuation of austerity, May has indicated that further cheap borrowing may provide Sir Howard Davies – Airports commission chair capacity by chairing the Cabinet committee on the issue. With a Maidenhead Sadiq Khan – Mayor of London the fiscal stability the UK requires following the EU referendum result. Taxation reforms constituency, she may be inclined to favour expanding Gatwick. The Davies Justine Greening – Education secretary could be used to restore confidence in the UK as a location for business investment Commission’s recommendation for a hub airport at Heathrow, and questions about the Boris Johnson – Foreign secretary and boost productivity. It is unlikely any significant economic plans will be set out UK’s international trading links post-Brexit, could make her re-evaluate. This could also ahead of the Autumn Statement, when Hammond is expected to outline plans for a present an opportunity to show she is putting the needs of the UK ahead of her own “fiscal reset”. The backdrop is Hammond and May have already abandoned Osborne’s constituency interests. With anti-Heathrow campaigners such as Boris Johnson and surplus target by 2020 which had in any case been called into question prior to the Justine Greening in her Cabinet, she’ll also have to weigh-up what impact the decision referendum. By keeping their options open, Hammond and May will be looking for will have on party unity. flexibility as Britain faces headwinds in the global economy and from Brexit. Follow us on twitter at @WA_Comms or for more information please go to westminsteradvisers.co.uk or call 020 7222 9500.