garnett&l 8/8/03 12:14 PM Page 1 The Conservatives in crisis provides a timely and important analysis incrisis Conservatives The of the Conservative Party’s spell in Opposition following the 1997 general election. It includes chapters by leading academic experts The on the party and commentaries by three senior Conservative politicians: Lord Parkinson, Andrew Lansley MP and Ian Taylor MP. Having been the dominant force in British politics in the twentieth century, the Conservative Party suffered its heaviest general Conservatives election defeats in 1997 and 2001. This book explores the party’s current crisis and assesses the Conservatives’ failure to mount a political recovery under the leadership of William Hague. The Conservatives in crisis includes a detailed examination of the reform of the Conservative Party organisation, changes in ideology in crisis and policy, the party’s electoral fortunes, and Hague’s record as party leader. It also offers an innovative historical perspective on previous Conservative recoveries and a comparison with the revival of the US Republican Party. In the conclusions, the editors assess edited by Mark Garnett and Philip Lynch the failures of the Hague period and examine the party’s performance under Iain Duncan Smith. The Conservatives in crisis will be essential reading for students of contemporary British politics. Mark Garnett is a Visiting Fellow in the Department of Politics at the University of Leicester. Philip Lynch is a Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Leicester. Lynch Garnett eds and In memory of Martin Lynch THE CONSERVATIVES IN CRISIS The Tories after 1997 edited by Mark Garnett and Philip Lynch Manchester University Press Manchester and New York distributed exclusively in the USA by Palgrave Copyright © Manchester University Press 2003 While copyright in the volume as a whole is vested in Manchester University Press, copyright in individual chapters belongs to their respective authors. This electronic version has been made freely available under a Creative Commons (CC-BY-NC-ND) licence, which permits non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction provided the author(s) and Manchester University Press are fully cited and no modifications or adaptations are made. Details of the licence can be viewed at https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ Published by Manchester University Press Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9NR, UK and Room 400, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010, USA www.manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data applied for ISBN 0 7190 6330 2 hardback 0 7190 6331 0 paperback First published 2003 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Typeset in Monotype Bell by Carnegie Publishing Ltd, Chatsworth Road, Lancaster Printed in Great Britain by CPI, Bath CONTENTS Contents Contents List of figures and tables page vi List of contributors vii Acknowledgements ix List of abbreviations xi Introduction Mark Garnett and Philip Lynch 1 1 The Conservatives in opposition, 1906–79: a comparative analysis Stuart Ball 7 2 The US Republicans: lessons for the Conservatives? Edward Ashbee 29 3 Win or bust: the leadership gamble of William Hague Mark Garnett 49 4 The Conservative parliamentary party Philip Cowley and Mark Stuart 66 5 Organisational reform and the extra-parliamentary party Richard Kelly 82 6 A question of definition? Ideology and the Conservative Party, 1997–2001 Mark Garnett 107 7 Conservative policy under Hague Peter Dorey 125 8 The Conservatives and Europe, 1997–2001 Philip Lynch 146 9 The Scottish Conservatives, 1997–2001: from disaster to devolution and beyond Peter Lynch 164 10 Nationhood and identity in Conservative politics Philip Lynch 182 11 The 2001 general election: so, no change there then? David Broughton 198 Commentary 1 The reform of the Conservative Party Lord Parkinson 217 Commentary 2 From values to policy: the Conservative challenge Andrew Lansley MP 221 Commentary 3 The Conservatives, 1997–2001: a party in crisis? Ian Taylor MP 229 Conclusions: the Conservatives in crisis Philip Lynch and Mark Garnett 248 Index 269 FIGURES AND TABLES Figures and tables Figures and tables Figures 5.1 Conservative all-party ballots, 1997–2001 page 88 5.2 Conservative Central Office, 1998–2001 92 5.3 The Policy Forum system 96 Tables 1.1 Factors in Conservative recoveries, 1910–79 23 1.2 Conservative electoral recoveries, 1910–79 24 4.1 Changes in support between rounds, 1997 68 4.2 Changes in support between rounds, 2001 77 9.1 The 1999 Scottish election 172 9.2 The 2001 general election in Scotland 177 11.1 The 2001 general election 200 11.2 William Hague as (i) Leader of the Opposition, and (ii) the best person for Prime Minister 205 11.3 Views on William Hague (January 2001) 206 11.4 Perceived attributes of William Hague (April 2001 and October 1997) 207 11.5 Issue saliency at the 2001 general election 208 11.6 Best party policy on problems facing Britain today (February 2001) 209 CONTRIBUTORS Contributors Contributors Edward Ashbee is co-author of American Society Today (2002) and of US Politics Today (1999). He has also written a number of articles on contemporary American politics. Stuart Ball is Reader in History at the University of Leicester. His publications include Baldwin and the Conservative Party: The Crisis of 1929–1931 (1988), The Conservative Party and British Politics 1902–1951 (1995), and (as co-editor) Conservative Century: The Conser- vative Party since 1900 (1994) and The Heath Government 1970–1974: A Reappraisal (1996). David Broughton is Senior Lecturer in Politics in the School of European Studies at Cardiff University. His publications include Public Opinion Polling and Politics in Britain (1995) and he was co-editor of the British Elections and Parties Yearbook between 1991 and 1996. He has also written a number of journal articles on Welsh electoral politics. Philip Cowley is a Lecturer in Politics at the University of Nottingham. His publications include Revolts and Rebellions: Parliamentary Voting under Blair (2002) and Conscience and Parliament (editor, 1998). He has published numerous articles and chapters on the British Parliament. Peter Dorey is Senior Lecturer in British Politics in the School of European Studies at Cardiff University. His books include The Conservative Party and the Trade Unions (1995), The Major Premiership (editor, 1999) and Wage Politics in Britain: The Rise and Fall of Incomes Policies since 1945 (2001). He has also published numerous articles and chapters on contemporary British Conservatism. Mark Garnett is a Visiting Fellow in the Department of Politics at the University of Leicester. He is author of Alport: A Study in Loyalty (1999) and co-author of Whatever Happened to the Tories? (with Ian Gilmour, 1998), Keith Joseph (with Andrew Denham, 2001) and Splendid! Splendid: The Authorised Biography of William Whitelaw (with Ian Aitken, 2002). Richard Kelly teaches Politics at Manchester Grammar School. He is author of Conservative Party Conferences: The Hidden System (1989), co-author of British Political Parties Today (1998) and editor of Changing Party Policy in Britain (1999) and Modern British Statesmen 1867–1945 (1997). Andrew Lansley CBE MP has been the Conservative Member of Parliament for South Cambridgeshire since 1997. For the 1992 General Election he headed the Conservative Research Department. In June 1999 he was promoted to the Shadow Cabinet as Shadow Minister for the Cabinet Office and led the policy development process for the Conserva- tive Party from 1999 to 2001, including the Common Sense Revolution and the 2001 general election campaign. Peter Lynch is Lecturer in Politics at the University of Stirling. He is author of Scottish Government and Politics (2001) and SNP: A History of the Scottish National Party (2002). He has also published a number of articles on devolution, nationalism and the political parties in Scotland. viii Contributors Philip Lynch is Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Leicester. He is author of The Politics of Nationhood: Sovereignty, Britishness and Conservative Politics (1999) and Re- forming the European Union: From Maastricht to Amsterdam (co-editor, 2000). He has also written a number of articles and chapters on Conservative politics. Lord Parkinson of Carnforth was Conservative Party Chairman from 1997 to 1998. As Cecil Parkinson, he served in Margaret Thatcher’s Cabinet as Conservative Party Chair- man (1981–83), Trade and Industry Secretary (1983), Energy Secretary (1987–89) and Transport Secretary (1989–90). Mark Stuart is a Research Fellow in the Centre for Legislative Studies at the University of Hull. His publications include Douglas Hurd: The Public Servant (1998). He is currently compiling a biography of the late John Smith. He has also written a number of articles on the British Parliament. Ian Taylor MBE is Conservative MP for Esher and Walton, having entered Parliament in 1987. He was a Parliamentary Private Secretary in the Foreign Office, Health Depart- ment and Cabinet Office before becoming Minister for Science and Technology at the Department of Trade and Industry (1994–97). He was Shadow spokesman on Northern Ireland under William Hague until resigning in October 1997. He is now Chairman of the European Movement. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Acknowledgements Acknowledgements The editors would like to thank the Bow Group for granting permission to reproduce