Fit to Fight or Unfit for Purpose? A Review of the Effectiveness of the Intelligence Cycle in UK Counter-Terrorism, 2003-2013. By Paul Burke Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree of Professional Doctorate in Policing, Security and Community Safety at London Metropolitan University. Copyright Copyright © 2014 Paul Burke. All rights reserved. The copyright of this thesis rests with the Author. Copies (by any means) either in full, or of extracts, may not be made without prior written consent from the Author. This is the sole work of Paul Burke. This is not a resubmission. Table of Contents Copyright 2 Table of Contents iii List of Tables viii List of Figures ix Abstract xi Acknowledgements xiii Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................... 14 1.1 Rationale for study ..................................................................... 14 1.2 Overview of Research ................................................................ 19 1.3 Thesis Question........................................................................... 21 1.4 Guide to Chapters ...................................................................... 21 1.5 Theoretical Framework .............................................................. 25 1.5.1 The Composition of the UK Intelligence Community. 25 1.5.2 How the UK Intelligence machinery functions 30 1.5.3 Legislation and oversight of the UK Intelligence Community 34 Chapter 2 Methodology ................................................................................. 39 2.1 Theoretical Framework and Argument .................................. 39 iii 2.2 Operationalising the Research Question ................................. 40 2.3 Ethical Issues and Problems Encountered .............................. 41 2.4 Literature Review ....................................................................... 44 2.5 Collecting the Raw Data and Methods of Analysis........................................................................................ 54 2.6 Interview structure and interview questions ......................... 55 Chapter 3 Theoretical Framework: Defining Intelligence and Terrorism 60 3.1 Defining Intelligence .................................................................. 61 3.1.1 Intelligence Failures or Intelligence Gaps? 81 3.2 Defining Terrorism ..................................................................... 84 3.3 Problems with terrorism definitions...................................... 103 3.4 Summary.................................................................................... 107 Chapter 4 CONTEST: The UK Counter-Terrorism Policy .................... 111 4.1 PURSUE ..................................................................................... 114 4.1.1 Covert Detection & Investigation 116 4.1.2 Effective Prosecution 125 4.1.3 Non-prosecution Actions 128 4.1.4 Disruption of Terrorist Activities Overseas 133 4.1.5 Capacity Building 136 iv 4.1.6 Inter-Agency Co-ordination 138 4.1.7 SUMMARY 140 4.2 PREVENT .................................................................................. 141 4.2.1 The Ideological Challenge of Terrorism 141 4.2.2 Prevent the Recruitment of Individuals 143 4.2.3 Addressing Radicalisation 146 4.3 PROTECT................................................................................... 156 4.3.1 Critical National Infrastructure 156 4.3.2 Transportation, Border Security and Crowded Places 157 4.3.3 Operation CREVICE – 2004 164 4.3.4 Operation RHYME - 2006 167 4.4 PREPARE ................................................................................... 171 4.4.1 The CBRN Threat 171 4.4.2 Interoperability 174 4.5 Summary.................................................................................... 186 Chapter 5 The Intelligence Cycle ............................................................... 191 5.1 Direction .................................................................................... 193 5.2 Collection ................................................................................... 198 5.3 Collation ..................................................................................... 206 5.4 Evaluation .................................................................................. 211 5.5 Analysis...................................................................................... 217 v 5.6 Dissemination ........................................................................... 223 5.7 Summary.................................................................................... 229 Chapter 6 Strengths and Weaknesses of the Intelligence Cycle .......... 234 6.1 Weaknesses of the Intelligence Cycle .................................... 234 6.1.1 Challenges and vulnerabilities in Intelligence 256 6.1.2 Pathologies of Intelligence Sharing 264 6.2 Strengths of the Intelligence Cycle ......................................... 274 6.3 Summary.................................................................................... 291 Chapter 7 Conclusions ................................................................................. 293 Annex A - Example of a Priority Intelligence Requirement.......................... 304 Annex B - Participant Consent Form ................................................................ 306 Annex C – UN Conventions .............................................................................. 310 Annex D – Example Intelligence Collection Plan ........................................... 312 Annex E –Financial investigation infographic ................................................ 313 Annex F – Example Tear Line Report ............................................................... 314 Annex G - Community Engagement to Counter-Terrorism (Metropolitan Police Authority 2007, sec.G) ........................ 315 Annex H – Relevant Public Authorities – RIPA 2000 .................................... 316 Annex I – The Eight Attributes of Intelligence Excellence, as considered by the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff .......................... 319 vi Index 322 Bibliography 324 VITA 357 vii List of Tables Table 1: Categorisation of Intelligence definitions on a Broad-Narrow continuum, according to Davies (2005). 17 Table 2 List of interviewees and their primary agencies 58 Table 3 O’Connor’s Ten Reasons for Intelligence Failures 83 Table 4 Sample of closed databases 210 Table 5 Breakdown of the evaluation variables in the National Intelligence Report (5x5x5) 215 Table 6 Intelligence Analysis Challenges and Vulnerabilities 259 Table 7 Intelligence challenges and vulnerabilities listed by taxonomy 261 viii List of Figures 1 The earliest known version of a printed Intelligence cycle, 1948 15 2 Harfields’ triptych conceptualisation of Intelligence, based on Ratcliffe (2003). 80 3 The CONTEST Strategy 112 4 The relationship between CONTEST and the policing pillars 114 5 Directed surveillance authorisations for law enforcement agencies over past ten years (Rose, 2014:11) 119 6 Intrusive surveillance authorisations over past ten years (Rose, 2014:10) 120 7 Property interference authorisations over past ten years (Rose, 2014:10) 121 8 Charity Commission Counter-Terrorism Strategy: The Four-Strand Approach (2012:8) 132 9 The CHANNEL process (Peters, 2012:15) 153 10 Graph showing number of individuals referred to CHANNEL from 2006-2014 155 11 The INSTINCT concept 163 12 Three phases of Critical Incident Management (College of Policing, 2013) 179 13 Workstreams of the UK Resilience Capabilities Programme 181 14 British Army Intelligence Cycle, circa 1984 192 15 The 6-stage Intelligence Cycle 192 16 Example of a National Intelligence Report (5x5x5) 212 17 Intelligence cycle with single-stage feedback loops 239 18 Intelligence cycle with hand-drawn, multiple-stage feedback loops 240 19 Treverton’s forms of politicisation 242 20 A systems approach to the Intelligence cycle 250 21 Clark's Hierarchy of Models 252 22 Clark’s target-centred view of the Intelligence Process 252 23 Treverton's "Real Intelligence Cycle" 254 ix 24 Engineering and production functions isolated in their own separate functional silos 272 25 The SARA model 277 26 The Intelligence Triosphere 300 x Abstract The Intelligence process has increasingly found itself in the public eye in modern times. The Al Qa’eda attacks against the USA in September 2001 led to a rapid spread of other international terrorist attacks. The invasion of Afghanistan occurred soon afterwards, followed by the invasion of Iraq in 2003. All of this resulted in the Intelligence community and their processes being pushed into the spotlight of the global media. Central to all Intelligence work is the Intelligence cycle, in whatever form it might take. This thesis investigates the effectiveness of the UK’s 6-stage Intelligence cycle in counter-terrorism work. Definitions of two key terms, Intelligence and terrorism are dissected at length, and the merits and shortcomings are outlined. Accusations of Intelligence failure have been levelled at both the UK government and at the country’s law enforcement, Intelligence and security agencies. Intelligence gaps and Intelligence failures will be described, and the differences between these key terms highlighted. All counter-terrorism work in the UK takes place within the environment of the government’s counter-terror strategy called CONTEST. The six pillars of the strategy are explained, and examples are used to show where Intelligence fits into