:

SPECIAL REPORT

Why Cristina Kirchner is candidate and could win

Buenos Aires, August 2017

Barcelona • Bogota • • Havana • Lima • Lisbon • Madrid • Mexico City • Miami • New York City • Panama City • Quito • Rio de Janeiro • Sao Paulo Santiago • Santo Domingo • Washington, DC WHY CRISTINA KIRCHNER IS CANDIDATE AND COULD WIN

1. INTRODUCTION

Legislative elections are being held this year in and the 1. INTRODUCTION former President is heading the list of candidates in her own alliance 2. ELECTIONS IN ARGENTINA in the biggest electoral district in the country. Less than two years 3. CRISTINA KIRCHNER AND THE from Macri’s victory in the ballots, Cristina Kirchner has burst back COURTS onto the national political scene with the chance of coming out on 4. IMPACT ON THE PRIVATE SECTOR top. 5. WHY SHE COULD WIN AGAIN A spectre is haunting Argentina: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has 6. SHE RETAINS A SIGNIFICANT CAPTIVE ELECTORATE regained a leading role on the local political scene after spending most of the time since losing power (December 10, 2015) in the south 7. LACK OF STRONG ALTERNATIVE LEADERSHIP IN THE of the country, well away from the centre of public debate. Acting JUSTICIALISTA PARTY from the recently founded Unidad Ciudadana party, she will clash 8. CAMPAIGN PROMISES BROKEN with the governing Cambiemos in the district that is home to around 9. INCOME TAX 40 percent of the national electoral roll, . She is 10. HER ELECTORAL PROSPECTS hoping to achieve a triumph that will enable her to plan a return to 11. FINAL COMMENTS government in 2019.

There were those who said that the victory of in AUT"RS the last election amounted to starting a new page in the after 12 years of “”. However, far from that the former President is returning to the electoral fray in which she has a chance of winning. In this Developing Ideas report we try to explain why she is standing, how she will manage to maintain the high levels of popularity that could allow her to win and what consequences her standing has for new investment.

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2. ELECTIONS IN ARGENTINA voter apathy yet further, this year there are also the special The Republic of Argentina has circumstances that almost no a presidential system that, party will define its candidate in unlike a parliamentary one, internal elections; instead, they elects a president for 4 years, are presenting a single list of “To increase voter regardless of whether or not his candidates. apathy yet further, or her party has the majority this year there are in Congress. At the same time, With elections every two years the president himself is facing a and the election campaign also the special mid-term election half-way (two involved spreading over the circumstances that years) into his term in office. previous months, it is difficult almost no party will for administrators to devote This mid-term election is themselves fully to government define its candidate in exclusively legislative: in play are and to the issues that should internal elections; half of the in the Chamber occupy the attention of an instead, they are of Deputies (identified with the administration with visible people, as the number of seats results in the long term, beyond presenting a single in each province is proportional the short-term agenda and the list of candidates. ” to its population) and a third obsession with electoral success. of the Senate (representing the provinces, each with the Vice President same number of congressmen, warned of this complication, regardless of the population). and even suggested the need As no executive positions are to put an end to the mid-term being fought for (President, elections so that government governors, mayors), the mid- can focus on key administrative term election tends to raise less issues, without necessarily being interest than others. To increase concerned for the electoral impact that this could bring to it.

This year in Argentina, President Macri is facing mid- term elections. The Open, Simultaneous and Mandatory Primaries (PASO for its Spanish acronym) will be held on August 13. All the political parties are going to the polls to define who their candidates will be in the general election to be held on October 22.

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3. CRISTINA KIRCHNER AND March 23 Judge Claudio THE COURTS Bonadio ordered her to stand trial. The trial will Despite having court cases pen- be held in the Federal ding against her in a number of Trial Court 1. courts, former President Cristina Kirchner is not disqualified from Los Sauces S.A. “ Kirchner is not running for a seat in the Senate disqualified from to represent the province of Bue- • Crimes accused of: forging nos Aires. However, the progress pubic documents, payment running for a seat in of the various judicial procee- of bribes and money the Senate to dings underway could condition laundering. represent the her ability to enter politics on December 10 this year, if she • Cristina Kirchner has been province of Bue-nos actually wins a seat in the upper accused of having received Aires ” chamber. bribes from company owners who had benefited The cases and her legal situation from the award of public in each: contracts during her period in office. ‘Future Dollars’ • The federal judge Carlos • Crime accused of: fraud Rivolo also charged through fraudulent the company owners administration. Lazaro Baez (arrested in a case of alleged money • The responsibility of laundering) and Cristobal former public officials, López (under investigation among them the former for a debt amounting president and her Economy to millions with the tax minister and current authorities), accusing member of the national them of making the Parliament, Axel Kicillof, in payment through property the advance sale of USD by rentals administered by the Central Bank at lower the company owned by than market price. the Kirchner (called Los Sauces). »» Current situation: Cristina Kirchner »» Current situation: the was prosecuted, in same judge Bonadio other words, the judge prosecuted the former considered there was president, froze assets sufficient evidence worth 130 million pesos1 against the person (over USD 7 million) and charged combined with banned her from leaving other proof, and on

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the country. The judge then K money route recused himself and passed • Crime accused of: links to the trial on to Judge Julian money laundering. Ercolini on the grounds it dealt with related cases. • An investigation is underway to discover Hotesur whether Lázaro Baez, “Kirchner was • Crimes accused of: tax and friend of the Kirchner business irregularities and family, took 55 million accused following the money laundering. euros out of the country testimony of and transferred them Leonardo Fariña, who • The case is looking into the abroad beyond the reach revealed on television rental of rooms in hotels of the law.3 for the Kirchner family by how he himself various company owners, • Cristina Kirchner was channelled for an amount that it is accused following the undeclared money suspected to involve the testimony of Leonardo laundering of alleged Fariña (under house arrest), from Baez out of the gains derived from public who revealed on television country ” works2. It is suspected how he himself channelled that the company owning undeclared money from the hotel Alto Calafate Baez out of the country. (”Hotesur”) was being used to launder money »» Current situation: The and there were numerous prosecutor Guillermo irregularities on its Marijuan asked the accounting and corporate judge Sebastián books. Casanello to call Cristina Kirchner for »» Current situation: questioning. Cristina Kirchner was charged and is under investigation by the prosecutors Gerardo Pollicita and Ignacio Mahiques. The investigation is also being carried out by the judge Julian Ercolini.

1 La Nación, “Los Sauces: judge Bonadío prosecutes Cristina Kirchner and freezes as- sets worth 130 million pesos” http://www.lanacion.com.ar/2004350-los-sauces-el-juez- bonadio-proceso-a-cristina-kirchner-y-la-embargo-por-130-millones-de-pesos 2 El Mundo, “Hotesur, the case that uncovers CFK in election year”. http://www.elmun- do.es/internacional/2015/04/19/553286f322601d25128b4570.html 3 Todo Noticias, “The Government will act as co-plaintiff in the case against Lazaro Baez” http://tn.com.ar/politica/el-gobierno-sera-querellante-en-el-caso-contra-lazaro- baez_677943

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Corruption in public works The former President is presu- • Crime accused of: illegal med innocent, as guaranteed association and fraudulent by Article 18 of the Argentinean administration. Constitution7. A person who has been charged enjoys this “state • A total of 52 tenders of innocence” for the whole trial were awarded to Baez, proceedings (complaint, procee- “Kirchner had representing a loss for dings, accusation) until the judge promoted a the State amounting to rules against him or her. This 46 billion pesos4 (USD principle is a beacon of indivi- “democratization” of 2.5 billion). Among the dual freedom and is enshrined the Judiciary by irregularities claimed: in the Universal Declaration of promoting six bills (...). Overcharge of 65 percent5, Human Rights8.Judicial, y de un advances of work of more intento del Gobierno actual para Despite having been than 30 percent (which acorralarla políticamente. passed by Congress is what is authorized by (...)five out the six law), lack of control and During her second term in office certification of works that (2011-15), Cristina Kirchner had initiatives were were not completed. promoted a “democratization” declared of the Judiciary by promoting unconstitutional by »» Current situation: Judge six bills that called into question the Supreme Court of Ercolini has put Cristina some privileges enjoyed by Kirchner on trial on its members. Despite having Justice” “prime facie” grounds as been passed by Congress (with criminally responsible a pro-Kirchner majority), five co-author of the crime out the six initiatives were of illicit association declared unconstitutional by together with fraudulent the Supreme Court of Justice. administration The ex-president and those close aggravated by having to her believe that the number been damaging of judicial cases against her to a government are a reprisal for her attempt administration. He to reform some entrenched ordered a freeze of privileges within the Judiciary assets worth 10 billion and an attempt by the current pesos6 (USD 555 million). government to corner her politically.

4 La Nación, “Common patterns are being detected in the award of tenders to Lazaro Baez that will prove the irregularities”, by Hernan Cappiello . http://www.lanacion.com. ar/2006268-detectan-patrones-comunes-en-la-adjudicacion-de-obras-a-lazaro-baez-que- comprobarian-la-irregularidades 5 Todo Noticias, Laura Alonso, “In three cases alone there was overcharging of nearly 65%” http://tn.com.ar/politica/laura-alonso-sobre-la-corrupcion-k-en-solo-tres-expedientes- se-encontro-un-sobreprecio-de-casi-65_694936 6. La Nación, “Judge Ercoloni puts Cristina Kirchner on trial for illicit association and imposed a freeze of assets worth 10 billion pesos” http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1970651-el- juez-ercolini-proceso-a-cristina-kirchner-por-asociacion-ilicita-y-ordeno-un-embargo-por- 10000-millones-de-pesos 7 “No resident of the Nation may be penalised without prior trial based on the law en- acted before the act that is the object of the proceedings, tried by special commissions, or removed from the judges appointed by law before the case comes to trial.”

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4. IMPACT ON THE PRIVATE the initiative to pay the bond SECTOR holdouts and abandon the default), turned out not to Cristina Kirchner’s decision to be. And Cristina Kirchner’s compete for a seat on the Senate candidacy will not help reverse was a bucket of cold water for this situation. This is the opinion many of those had begun to look of , former “Since Kirchner more positively at the possibility Economy minister during the announced she was of investing in Argentina: the Néstor Kirchner’s term in office mere idea that she could head and currently leader of the party standing again, he no up the opposition again and led by the Peronist Sergio Massa: longer received visits stand in 2019 frightens even the “Investments are not arriving from businesspeople most optimistic investors. This due to lack of confidence and was admitted by an Argentinean now we have to add to this in meetings to ask Ambassador posted abroad, the candidacy of Cristina about Argentina. ” who said that since Kirchner Kirchner9.” announced she was standing again, he no longer received The same conclusion was visits from businesspeople reached by Guillermo Nielsen, in meetings to ask about who formed part of Lavagna’s Argentina. economic team and headed up the negotiations on the debt The main cause for concern is exchange in 2005: related to various measures that »» “Investments are not Cristina Kirchner had adopted arriving for a number of during her period as president. reasons. One of them is They include the ban on sending that Cristina Kirchner dividends to the parents of could run again for an the companies operating in electoral position10, but we the country, the exchange-rate would also have to mention “clamp” and import controls. that the labour courts do not offer guarantees (in The flood of investments reference to a judgement that the Government had by the House that obliged a been insistent would flow company to reincorporate into Argentina, forecasting workers who had been this at least twice (during the dismissed), the Government election campaign and when is completely disorganised it asked Parliament to approve and the country’s trade deficit is growing,” he said.

8 Article 11 of the Declaration of Human Rights: “Everyone charged with a penal offence has the right to be presumed innocent until proved guilty according to law in a public trial at which he has had all the guarantees necessary for his defence”. https://www. google.es/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi vorWcpcfVAhVKVxoKHT1MAtwQFgg9MAM&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.un.org%2Fes%2Fd ocuments%2Fudhr%2F&usg=AFQjCNEbEvHMXOc44x2dDcpVZeO9nZ73XA 9 Infobae, “Roberto Lavagna: “Investments are not arriving due to lack of confidence and to this we now have to add the candidacy of Cristina Kirchner” http://www.infobae. com/politica/2017/06/28/roberto-lavagna-las-inversiones-no-vienen-por-falta-de-confianza- y-ahora-hay-que-sumarle-la-candidatura-de-cristina-kirchner/

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The idea of a disorganized red by USD 2.61 billion, according government as claimed by to the official statistical institute Nielsen emerges mainly from Indec12. In June, imports grew by the lack of a single political 15.4 percent, while exports fell by figure dealing mainly with 2.6 percent. One month later the the economy: there have been trade de.cit with Brazil alone13 two coordinators with the was USD 800 million. “Local business rank of ministers working leaders have decided together (Mario Quintana and In the business sector there Gustavo Lopetegui, both in are also many examples of the to close ranks and the President’s Office), eight lack of confidence with respect avoid criticism of the ministers (Nicolas Dujovne to Argentina. One executive performance of a (Treasury), Luis Caputo of a company that has a major (Finance), Francisco Cabrera presence in Europe and Latin president.” (Production), Juan José America in construction and Aranguren (Energy), Rogelio tenders stated that they did Frigerio (Interior), Guillermo not invest in Argentina because Dietrich (Transport), Ricardo of the political and electoral Buryaile (Agro-Industry) and situation and because the Jorge Triaca (Labour) - and country does not guarantee two “satellites” – Federico the returns needed by their Sturzenegger (Central Bank) and investments, which are made Javier González Fraga (Banco long-term for at least 30 years. Nación). Fearful of the possibility that With regard to the trade balance, Cristina Kirchner could return Argentina is today facing the to government, local business highest trade de.cit since leaders have decided to close 199413: in the first half of 2017 ranks and avoid criticism of alone, the balance between the performance of a president imports and exports was in the

10 Infobae, “Macri is giving free rein to simplistic populism” and other 7 definitions by Guillermo Nielsen http:// www.infobae.com/economia/2017/07/28/ macri-esta-en-el-facilismo-populista-y- otras-7-definiciones-de-guillermo-nielsen/ 11 La Nación, “The trade deficit is the highest since 1994 due to the fall in exports”, by Francisco Jueguen, 2017. http:// www.lanacion.com.ar/2047065-el-deficit- comercial-es-el-mas-alto-desde-1994-por-la- baja-de-exportaciones 12 National Institute of Statistics and Census of the Republic of Argentina. http:// www.indec.gob.ar/ 13 Infobae: “The trade deficit with Brazil hit an all-time high for one month of USD 800 million.” http://www.infobae.com/ economia/2017/08/01/el deficit-comercial- Photo from El Mundo: “The posters launching Máximo Kirchner as candidate for the presidency have con-brasil-registro-en-julio-el-record-de- heated the political atmosphere” usd-800-millones-para-un-mes/

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whose roots are in the same And finally, Argentina’s great sector. They say that they will scourge: inflation. Inflation has not make any public criticisms not eased up either. In recent until after the elections and weeks the Government has their messages will be optimistic. changed its message, based on the idea that inflation in 2017 5. WHY SHE COULD WIN would be the lowest in years. “Local business AGAIN By way of reference, in 2016 and leaders have decided 2017 it was 15 points less. With The main reasons for which she respect to the amount for this to close ranks and could win again are: year, in Argentina: notes on the avoid criticism of the .rst Macri budget14 we forecast performance of a The economy has not yet taken a ceiling of 17 percent, but in off reality it will be closer to 24 presidentwhose roots percent. are in the same sector. After 12 years of Kirchnerism, They say that they some analysts insisted that a In turn, some measures of change of government would economic activity have also not will not make any per se bring with it an inflow of provided support to the Macri public criticisms until funds that had been waiting for administration. For example, after the elections years for a change in the political on April this year, industrial and their messages balance of the Government in production fell for the 15th Argentina. However, little of this month in a row (the last positive will be optimistic” have been proven in reality. indicator had been in January 2016). Thus in the same way that the previous administration had Although some indicators began a focus on consumption, the to improve (the “green shoots”), officials in this one look almost their impact is far from being exclusively at investment as the reflected in the pockets of most main variable in the economy. voters, at least in August when The Government therefore the PASO primaries are held. proposed to improve some That is why the Government is indicators, such as inflation (it putting its hope in the October stood at around 25 percent) and general election, by which time the fiscal deficit (over 5 percent they believe that the economic of GDP) to attract capital. upturn will be felt “on the streets”. Among the measures taken to achieve this there were a cut of subsidies for public services such as electricity, gas and transport. Costs and trips prices increased, which had an impact on the pockets of the most vulnerable 14 DeC29<=6;4 Ideas: “Argentina: notes segments of the population. on the first Macri budget” by Daniel Valli. http://www.desarrollando-ideas. com/2017/01/apuntes-del-primer-presupues- to-de-macri/

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The analogy with Medem is 6. SHE RETAINS A also valid in terms of measuring SIGNIFICANT CAPTIVE whether in the end Cristina ELECTORATE Kirchner could once more run the country in 2019. Medem The ex-president has backing won the first round of the 2003 amounting to around 30 elections with 25 percent of the “Only one President in percent at national level. votes. However, he dropped out Her main assets in this sense of the second round because the history of would be the most vulnerable the defeat would have been Argentina has won a sectors of the population who overwhelming. With such a larger majority than were benefited by the social highly negative image, Cristina Cristina Kirchner did policies implemented by her Kirchner has a low “ceiling” government. that would not allow her to win in 2011 (5c percent): the minimum votes required Juan Domingo Perón, Only one President in the by the Constitution to win the who received the history of Argentina has won presidency, if she were to run. a larger majority than Cristina backing of 63 percent Kirchner did in 2011 (54 percent): 7. LACK OF STRONG in 1951 and 62 percent Juan Domingo Perón, who ALTERNATIVE LEADERSHIP in 1973.” received the backing of 63 IN THE JUSTICIALISTA percent in 1951 and 62 percent PARTY in 1973. In addition, Cristina Kirchner won clearly on the last The fall of Daniel Scioli in the 3 occasions she headed a list: presidential ballot was one 45 percent of the votes in the of the toughest sustained by legislative elections of 2005; the in its history. The same result in the presidential size of the election disaster for elections of 2007; and 54 percent a political group accustomed for her re-election in 2011. to govern but uncomfortable when it has to deal with an »» “Cristina gives expression opposition has its main link in to an active minority, which the province of Buenos Aires: is natural after 12 years there Cambiemos won the in government. After all, government from it in a district Menem, who was president which it had governed non-stop from 1989 to 1999, came since 1987. As one of the national first in the presidential political leadership explains, elections of 2003. When Peronism is accustomed to someone is president for hierarchical leadership... today many years he maintains it is all horizontal and no one is a level of support. But I more important than anyone have no doubt that support else. for Cristina is a minority,” explains Marcos Peña, the Head of the Cabinet Office.

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Peronism felt the blow and is Perhaps the one with the biggest still finding it difficult to recover future, by age and track record, from it. Since the fall in votes in is Sergio Massa, who has been November 2015, no significant competing with his own alliance alternative leadership has yet since 2013 and who defeated emerged to obscure Cristina Kirchnerism that year in the Kirchner and with the possibility legislative elections; but he came “Those looking for of fostering enthusiasm among third in the presidential election renewal within the the party’s voters and a return of 2015. This time, he will run to the presidential Casa Rosada with a serious chance of coming party have a number (Casa Rosada) in 2019. last and being left outside of leaders with Parliament. presidential Many expected , minister during the And the governors, with half of aspirations but none Kirchner administration, who those in the 24 districts being of them has yet taken refused to be a candidate for Peronist in origin, are now at the off and managed to governor as she had asked him, crossroads. Most of them are to challenge her in internal still more concerned with how eclipse Cristina elections, win and lead the to detach themselves from their Kirchner” renewal of the Justicialista Party predecessors who were linked (PJ). But the former president to Kirchnerism, and thus are avoided the confrontation and not trying to nationalise their founded her own party outside campaigns. In recent days they the PJ. joined forces again under the slogan the “league of governors” Those looking for renewal in an attempt to demonstrate within the party have a number to Macri that they are united of leaders with presidential against his measures. The aspirations but none of them Government is hoping one of has yet taken off and managed these provincial leaders will put to eclipse Cristina Kirchner. a brake on Cristina Kirchner if she wins in October and tries to reconstruct an alliance under her leadership. Outstanding in this mix is Juan Manuel Urtebey, governor of the province of Salta since 2007. He had announced his desire to compete in 2015 as the party’s candidate (even if then he does not progress with the project).

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8. BROKEN CAMPAING (called the “non-taxable PROMISES minimum”).

Cambiemos took over the “Football for All” government after a ballot in Since August 2009, it had been which it obtained 51.34 percent free to watch First Division of the votes. However, in the first football matches in Argentina “The commitments round it had won the backing of on TV. By decision of the announced before 34 percent of the voters, which previous Government, the can be considered the floor of its State bought the TV rights reaching power that critical support mass. from the Argentinean Football were not met. It Association and the matches explains the During the election campaign, were broadcast “free” on open the current administration television channels. frustration of some made a series of promises it voters who could would carry out if it won the Asked whether or not he would migrate to other presidency. In some cases it maintain this measure, the honoured them, but it others president had announced in this candidates at this not. This is a brief review of campaign that football would opportunity..” the commitments announced continue to be broadcast in the before reaching power that same way and that there would were not met. It explains the only be a modification in the frustration of some voters advertising content: half-time who could migrate to other would no longer be plagued by candidates at this opportunity. government propaganda, as had happened during the Kirchner 9. INCOME TAX period.

Workers who earn above a But since this year, all those who certain threshold pay a special want to watch football must pay tax called “income tax.” The an extra of around 20 dollars per Kirchner administration had month to their cable operator, in found a way of funding itself addition to the basic TV service. with this tax, as due to inflation salaries increased but often Removal of duties this threshold did not, obliging Kirchnerism had confronted middle-income professionals to pay. the farmers, one of the most buoyant sectors in the country’s Mauricio Macri had promised economy, increasing their tax to eliminate this tax. “The State burden, above all at times in should not keep the fruits of which some crops such as your labour,” he had explained. soya were at record prices. To Despite what he said, once he ingratiate himself with this entered government, he did group, Macri had promised not eliminate the tax; instead, to reduce export duties on in December 2016 he raised soya step-by-step by 5 percent the amount on which it is paid per year (the tax was around

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35 percent when he won the presidency.

Despite the public commitment, he only cut the duties by 5 percent in the .rst year (to 30 percent). "Opinion polls have lost a significant level 10. HER ELECTORAL PROSPECTS of credibility because of their inability to After the surveys did not reflect the voting forecast Trump’s victory, the triumph of Brexit, or the refusal intention of the to agree on the peace agreement citizens” signed with the FARC in Colombia, opinion polls have lost a significant level of credibility because of their inability to reflect the voting intention of the citizens. Despite this, we will summarise some measurements that could serve as indications of possible results15.

15 Always with respect to the candidates for National Senators for Buenos Aires Province

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Figure 1. Surveys that suggest the Cristina Fernández de Kirchner - Jorge Taina ticket for the Frente Unidad Ciudadana (Citizens’ United Front) will win.

Source: self made

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Figure 2. Surveys that give the Esteban Bullrich - Gladys González for Cambiemos ticket as winner.

Figure 3. Surveys that put the Sergio Massa - Margarita Stolbizer ticket for 1 País in first and/or second place.

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11. FINAL COMMENTS It will also be important to analyse the turn-out. As there Cristina Kirchner’s decision to are no internal elections, and run for Congress (a position this is a mid-term election, the she held successfully before turn-out will tend to be low. becoming president) may have something to do with legal The fact is that the Government strategy (if indeed not need) itself has risked a great deal "It will also be because of the proceedings in its electoral strategy, with important to analyse underway against her and her the aim of comparing the past family in the justice system. It (which would be Kirchnerism) the turn-out. As there can also be explained by her own and the future (the government). are no internal political ambition. “I’m here now This polarization was invented elections, and this is a to join this alliance”18 she said by neither Cristina nor Macri, during the launch of the Unidad but it has existed since the mid-term election, the Ciudadana group. mists of time. It is a valid tool turn-out will tend to in any election, but it has its be low” Whatever the reason, her figure unpleasant side. obliges all the political, business and trade union world to pay The idea of Cristina in Congress her attention. Paradoxically, the again awakens more doubts type of campaign she is running than certainties on the future has much more to do with the of the country, at least among style that was always projected a large part of the domestic by PRO (now Cambiemos) than and international business her own. She talks less, she community. And this is what is is less visible and despite all really in play in this election: the this maintains her chances of future of the country. If Macri’s winning this election intact. party wins the election it would be in a very good position for But it is also true that the 2019, having dismantled what numbers given by the elections little is left of Kirchnerism and on Sunday could be relative, giving a new life to Peronism depending on who analyses (now without Cristina). them. As there is no internal election, the same lists in the On the contrary, if the Unidad province of Buenos Aires will Ciudadana front wins, it will once more face each other in mean a return of the concerns October. The Government itself that many sectors thought had states that these results are not disappeared with the triumph so important, because in the of Cambiemos in 2015. worst case scenario when people see Cristina come first, they will be much more committed to ensuring that this result is not repeated in the general election.

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"In six out of seven The mid-term elections in Argentina have their own occasions since the lessons to teach in the province return of democracy of Buenos Aires: in six out of in 1983, the result was seven occasions since the return of democracy in 1983, the result repeated in the was repeated in the presidential presidential elections elections two years later. When two years later. When the governing party won, it went on to win re-election at national the governing party level; when it did not, it lost won, it went on to power. The exception was the win re-election at election of 2009, when Néstor national level; when it Kirchner lost but two years later his wife was re-elected. did not, it lost power” That is why Cambiemos is playing for something more than seats in Congress: the polls will determine the backing they have over the next two years to promote the structural reforms (mainly tax, labour and pension) they want to implement and will give some advance indication of the Mauricio Macri’s chances of remaining in power for four more years after 2019.

18 Infobae: “Before a large crowd, Cristina Kirchner launches the Unidad Ciuda- dana alliance”, 2017 http://www.infobae. com/politica/2017/06/20/ante-una-mul- titud-cristina-kirchner-lanza-unidad- ciudadana-vengo-a-poner-el-cuerpo-la- cabeza-y-el-corazon/

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Autores Mariano Vila is operations manager for LLORENTE & CUENCA, Argentina. He is a graduate in Politics from Universidad Católica Argentina, and is completing a Master’s Degree in Communications Management in Universidad Austral. Before joining LLORENTE & CUENCA he headed up the Public Affairs department of Edelman Argentina, where he worked with clients from a variety of sectors. He has also worked in the Ministry of Tourism, where he held a number of positions, including responsibility for institutional relations of INPROTUR and the promotion of Argentina in remote markets. In addition, he is a member of the Corporate Committee of the Public Relations Council and writes opinion columns in certain media. [email protected]

Lautaro Mazzeo is Public Affairs manager at LLORENTE & CUENCA, Argentina. He is a graduate in Communications from Universidad Católica Argentina (UCA) and is about to complete a degree in Politics, also at UCA. He is also a journalist with TEA. He was on the editorial board at the magazine Gente and the daily Clarín and worked at Boca Juniors in the area of institutional communication. He began his career in legal monitoring for the private sector at Agencia FOIA and headed up the area of regulatory issues in LatAm for Directorio Legislativo. He worked with clients in a number of industries, including food, telecommunications, construction, automotive, and finance. He joined LLORENTE & CUENCA in 2016. [email protected]

18 CORPORATE MANAGEMENT SPAIN AND PORTUGAL UNITED STATES ANDES’ REGION

José Antonio Llorente Arturo Pinedo Miami Bogota Founding Partner and Chairman Partner and Managing Director [email protected] [email protected] Erich de la Fuente María Esteve Partner and CFO Partner and Managing Director Enrique González Goyo Panadero [email protected] [email protected] Partner and CFO Partner and Managing Director [email protected] [email protected] 600 Brickell Ave. Av. Calle 82 # 9-65 Piso 4 Suite 2020 Bogotá D.C. – Colombia Adolfo Corujo Barcelona Miami, FL 33131 Tel: +57 1 7438000 Partner and Chief Talent and T​el​. +1 786 590 1000 Innovation Officer María Cura Lima [email protected] Partner and Managing Director New York City [email protected] Luis Miguel Peña Carmen Gómez Latam Desk Partner and Senior Director Corporate Director Muntaner, 240-242, 1º-1ª Salomón Kalach [email protected] [email protected] 08021 Barcelona Director Tel. +34 93 217 22 17 [email protected] Humberto Zogbi Chairman MANAGEMENT - AMERICAS Madrid Abernathy MacGregor [email protected] 277 Park Avenue, 39th Floor Alejandro Romero Joan Navarro New York, NY 10172 Av. Andrés Reyes 420, piso 7 Partner and CEO Americas Partner and Vice-president T​el​. +1 212 371 5999 (ext. 374) San Isidro [email protected] of Public Affairs Tel. +51 1 2229491 [email protected] Washington, DC Luisa García Quito Partner and COO Latin America Amalio Moratalla Ana Gamonal [email protected] Partner and Senior Director Director Alejandra Rivas [email protected] [email protected] Managing Director Erich de la Fuente [email protected] Partner and CEO United States Jordi Sevilla 10705 Rosehaven Street [email protected] Vice-president of Economic Context Fairfax, VA 22030 Avda. 12 de Octubre N24-528 y [email protected] Washington, DC Cordero – Edificio World Trade José Luis Di Girolamo Tel. +1 703 505 4211 Center – Torre B - piso 11 Partner and CFO Latin America Latam Desk Tel. +593 2 2565820 [email protected] Claudio Vallejo MEXICO, CENTRAL AMERICA Senior Director AND CARIBBEAN Santiago de Chile [email protected] TALENT MANAGEMENT Mexico City Francisco Aylwin Lagasca, 88 - planta 3 Chairman Daniel Moreno 28001 Madrid Juan Arteaga [email protected] Chief Talent Tel. +34 91 563 77 22 Managing Director [email protected] [email protected] Néstor Leal Impossible Tellers Director Marjorie Barrientos Rogelio Blanco [email protected] Talent Manager for Andes’ Region Ana Folgueira Managing Director [email protected] Managing Director [email protected] Magdalena 140, Oficina 1801. [email protected] Las Condes. Karina Sanches Av. Paseo de la Reforma 412, Piso 14, Tel. +56 22 207 32 00 Talent Manager for Impossible Tellers Col. Juárez, Del. Cuauhtémoc the Southern Cone Diego de León, 22, 3º izq CP 06600, Mexico City [email protected] 28006 Madrid Tel. +52 55 5257 1084 SOUTH AMERICA Tel. +34 91 438 42 95 Havana Buenos Aires Cink Pau Solanilla Daniel Valli Sergio Cortés Managing Director Managing Director and Partner. Founder and Chairman [email protected] Senior Director of New Business [email protected] Development for the Southern Cone Sortis Business Tower, piso 9 [email protected] Muntaner, 240, 1º-1ª Calle 57, Obarrio - Panamá 08021 Barcelona Tel. +507 206 5200 Av. Corrientes 222, piso 8. C1043AAP Tel. +34 93 348 84 28 Tel. +54 11 5556 0700 Panama City Lisbon Rio de Janeiro Javier Rosado Tiago Vidal Partner and Managing Director Juan Carlos Gozzer Managing Director [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Sortis Business Tower, piso 9 Ladeira da Glória, 26 Avenida da Liberdade nº225, 5º Esq. Calle 57, Obarrio - Panamá Estúdio 244 e 246 - Glória 1250-142 Lisbon Tel. +507 206 5200 Rio de Janeiro - RJ Tel. + 351 21 923 97 00 Tel. +55 21 3797 6400 Santo Domingo Sao Paulo Iban Campo Managing Director Marco Antonio Sabino [email protected] Partner and Brazil Chairman [email protected] Av. Abraham Lincoln 1069 Torre Ejecutiva Sonora, planta 7 Juan Carlos Gozzer Tel. +1 809 6161975 Managing Director [email protected]

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