: SPECIAL REPORT Why Cristina Kirchner is candidate and could win Buenos Aires, August 2017 Barcelona • Bogota • Buenos Aires • Havana • Lima • Lisbon • Madrid • Mexico City • Miami • New York City • Panama City • Quito • Rio de Janeiro • Sao Paulo Santiago • Santo Domingo • Washington, DC WHY CRISTINA KIRCHNER IS CANDIDATE AND COULD WIN 1. INTRODUCTION Legislative elections are being held this year in Argentina and the 1. INTRODUCTION former President is heading the list of candidates in her own alliance 2. ELECTIONS IN ARGENTINA in the biggest electoral district in the country. Less than two years 3. CRISTINA KIRCHNER AND THE from Macri’s victory in the ballots, Cristina Kirchner has burst back COURTS onto the national political scene with the chance of coming out on 4. IMPACT ON THE PRIVATE SECTOR top. 5. WHY SHE COULD WIN AGAIN A spectre is haunting Argentina: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has 6. SHE RETAINS A SIGNIFICANT CAPTIVE ELECTORATE regained a leading role on the local political scene after spending most of the time since losing power (December 10, 2015) in the south 7. LACK OF STRONG ALTERNATIVE LEADERSHIP IN THE of the country, well away from the centre of public debate. Acting JUSTICIALISTA PARTY from the recently founded Unidad Ciudadana party, she will clash 8. CAMPAIGN PROMISES BROKEN with the governing Cambiemos in the district that is home to around 9. INCOME TAX 40 percent of the national electoral roll, Buenos Aires Province. She is 10. HER ELECTORAL PROSPECTS hoping to achieve a triumph that will enable her to plan a return to 11. FINAL COMMENTS government in 2019. There were those who said that the victory of Mauricio Macri in AUT"RS the last election amounted to starting a new page in the history of Argentina after 12 years of “Kirchnerism”. However, far from that the former President is returning to the electoral fray in which she has a chance of winning. In this Developing Ideas report we try to explain why she is standing, how she will manage to maintain the high levels of popularity that could allow her to win and what consequences her standing has for new investment. 2 WHY CRISTINA KIRCHNER IS CANDIDATE AND COULD WIN 2. ELECTIONS IN ARGENTINA voter apathy yet further, this year there are also the special The Republic of Argentina has circumstances that almost no a presidential system that, party will define its candidate in unlike a parliamentary one, internal elections; instead, they elects a president for 4 years, are presenting a single list of “To increase voter regardless of whether or not his candidates. apathy yet further, or her party has the majority this year there are in Congress. At the same time, With elections every two years the president himself is facing a and the election campaign also the special mid-term election half-way (two involved spreading over the circumstances that years) into his term in office. previous months, it is difficult almost no party will for administrators to devote This mid-term election is themselves fully to government define its candidate in exclusively legislative: in play are and to the issues that should internal elections; half of the in the Chamber occupy the attention of an instead, they are of Deputies (identified with the administration with visible people, as the number of seats results in the long term, beyond presenting a single in each province is proportional the short-term agenda and the list of candidates. ” to its population) and a third obsession with electoral success. of the Senate (representing the provinces, each with the Vice President Gabriela Michetti same number of congressmen, warned of this complication, regardless of the population). and even suggested the need As no executive positions are to put an end to the mid-term being fought for (President, elections so that government governors, mayors), the mid- can focus on key administrative term election tends to raise less issues, without necessarily being interest than others. To increase concerned for the electoral impact that this could bring to it. This year in Argentina, President Macri is facing mid- term elections. The Open, Simultaneous and Mandatory Primaries (PASO for its Spanish acronym) will be held on August 13. All the political parties are going to the polls to define who their candidates will be in the general election to be held on October 22. 3 WHY CRISTINA KIRCHNER IS CANDIDATE AND COULD WIN 3. CRISTINA KIRCHNER AND March 23 Judge Claudio THE COURTS Bonadio ordered her to stand trial. The trial will Despite having court cases pen- be held in the Federal ding against her in a number of Trial Court 1. courts, former President Cristina Kirchner is not disqualified from Los Sauces S.A. “ Kirchner is not running for a seat in the Senate disqualified from to represent the province of Bue- • Crimes accused of: forging nos Aires. However, the progress pubic documents, payment running for a seat in of the various judicial procee- of bribes and money the Senate to dings underway could condition laundering. represent the her ability to enter politics on December 10 this year, if she • Cristina Kirchner has been province of Bue-nos actually wins a seat in the upper accused of having received Aires ” chamber. bribes from company owners who had benefited The cases and her legal situation from the award of public in each: contracts during her period in office. ‘Future Dollars’ • The federal judge Carlos • Crime accused of: fraud Rivolo also charged through fraudulent the company owners administration. Lazaro Baez (arrested in a case of alleged money • The responsibility of laundering) and Cristobal former public officials, López (under investigation among them the former for a debt amounting president and her Economy to millions with the tax minister and current authorities), accusing member of the national them of making the Parliament, Axel Kicillof, in payment through property the advance sale of USD by rentals administered by the Central Bank at lower the company owned by than market price. the Kirchner (called Los Sauces). » Current situation: Cristina Kirchner » Current situation: the was prosecuted, in same judge Bonadio other words, the judge prosecuted the former considered there was president, froze assets sufficient evidence worth 130 million pesos1 against the person (over USD 7 million) and charged combined with banned her from leaving other proof, and on 4 WHY CRISTINA KIRCHNER IS CANDIDATE AND COULD WIN the country. The judge then K money route recused himself and passed • Crime accused of: links to the trial on to Judge Julian money laundering. Ercolini on the grounds it dealt with related cases. • An investigation is underway to discover Hotesur whether Lázaro Baez, “Kirchner was • Crimes accused of: tax and friend of the Kirchner business irregularities and family, took 55 million accused following the money laundering. euros out of the country testimony of and transferred them Leonardo Fariña, who • The case is looking into the abroad beyond the reach revealed on television rental of rooms in hotels of the law.3 for the Kirchner family by how he himself various company owners, • Cristina Kirchner was channelled for an amount that it is accused following the undeclared money suspected to involve the testimony of Leonardo laundering of alleged Fariña (under house arrest), from Baez out of the gains derived from public who revealed on television country ” works2. It is suspected how he himself channelled that the company owning undeclared money from the hotel Alto Calafate Baez out of the country. (”Hotesur”) was being used to launder money » Current situation: The and there were numerous prosecutor Guillermo irregularities on its Marijuan asked the accounting and corporate judge Sebastián books. Casanello to call Cristina Kirchner for » Current situation: questioning. Cristina Kirchner was charged and is under investigation by the prosecutors Gerardo Pollicita and Ignacio Mahiques. The investigation is also being carried out by the judge Julian Ercolini. 1 La Nación, “Los Sauces: judge Bonadío prosecutes Cristina Kirchner and freezes as- sets worth 130 million pesos” http://www.lanacion.com.ar/2004350-los-sauces-el-juez- bonadio-proceso-a-cristina-kirchner-y-la-embargo-por-130-millones-de-pesos 2 El Mundo, “Hotesur, the case that uncovers CFK in election year”. http://www.elmun- do.es/internacional/2015/04/19/553286f322601d25128b4570.html 3 Todo Noticias, “The Government will act as co-plaintiff in the case against Lazaro Baez” http://tn.com.ar/politica/el-gobierno-sera-querellante-en-el-caso-contra-lazaro- baez_677943 5 WHY CRISTINA KIRCHNER IS CANDIDATE AND COULD WIN Corruption in public works The former President is presu- • Crime accused of: illegal med innocent, as guaranteed association and fraudulent by Article 18 of the Argentinean administration. Constitution7. A person who has been charged enjoys this “state • A total of 52 tenders of innocence” for the whole trial were awarded to Baez, proceedings (complaint, procee- “Kirchner had representing a loss for dings, accusation) until the judge promoted a the State amounting to rules against him or her. This 46 billion pesos4 (USD principle is a beacon of indivi- “democratization” of 2.5 billion). Among the dual freedom and is enshrined the Judiciary by irregularities claimed: in the Universal Declaration of promoting six bills (...). Overcharge of 65 percent5, Human Rights8.Judicial, y de un advances of work of more intento del Gobierno actual para Despite having been than 30 percent (which acorralarla políticamente. passed by Congress is what is authorized by (...)five out the six law), lack of control and During her second term in office certification of works that (2011-15), Cristina Kirchner had initiatives were were not completed. promoted a “democratization” declared of the Judiciary by promoting unconstitutional by » Current situation: Judge six bills that called into question the Supreme Court of Ercolini has put Cristina some privileges enjoyed by Kirchner on trial on its members.