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Home , Daniel Scioli, Eduardo Duhalde, Esteban Bullrich, Federico Sturzenegger, Front for Victory, Guillermo Dietrich

Argentina’s Road to Recovery

By Roger F. Noriega December 2015

KEY POINTS

• , who will become ’s president on December 10, is moving decisively to apply free-market solutions to restore his country’s prosperity, solvency, and global reputation. • Success of Macri’s center-right agenda could serve as an example for many Latin American countries whose statist policies have produced ailing economies and political instability. • As Argentina recovers its influence in favor of regional and human rights, the must step forward to support these causes in the Americas.

he November 22 election of Mauricio Macri, a incumbent, but many Peronists who rejected the Kirch- Tcenter-right former mayor and busi- ners’ heavy-handed tactics ended up giving Macri the ness executive, as presents a votes he needed to win the presidency.3 pivotal opportunity to vindicate free-market economic Because the results were much closer than pre-election policies and rally democratic solidarity in the Americas. polls predicted, Macri does not have the momentum Although Argentina’s $700 billion economy is ailing, it that a landslide victory would have produced, and the remains the second largest in ; if Macri’s Peronist opposition may bounce back quickly to block proposed reforms restore growth, jobs, and solvency, significant reforms. A successful two-term mayor, he could blaze the trail for other countries whose econ- Macri will have his political skills tested as he rallies omies have been stunted by socialist policies. And if the public, the powerful provincial , and he follows through on his pledge to invoke ’s moderate Peronists to rescue the country’s economy. democracy clause against ’s authoritarian The team around the president-elect has signaled his regime, Argentina could help lead the region away from intention to immediately implement a flurry of execu- the authoritarian caudillos (strong men) who have tive actions to project an image of decisiveness, energy, dominated the last decade. and change. Macri knows that he must choose his bat- After the election of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela in tles carefully—leading with measures that will broaden 1998, a mix of populism, socialism, and his base rather than provoke unruly opposition. emerged under leftist leaders in , , El After a decade of US-Argentine relations dominated Salvador, and Nicaragua.1 Even and have by the provincial and prickly Kirchners, US interests been affected by this trend. In Argentina, President in the region stand to benefit from more constructive Néstor Kirchner (2003–07) and his wife and successor leadership in Buenos Aires. If Macri is able to demon- Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007–15) employed strate the value of free-market policies and overcome authoritarian tactics and corruption that polarized ideological polarization, Washington may find resur- politics and stunted .2 , gent partnerships in the Americas—if the Obama Macri’s opponent and the Peronist “Front for Vic- administration chooses to pay attention. tory” candidate, tried to distance himself from the

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 1 The Campaign and Election Kirchner (2003–07), he has established his own identity as the of the important of Last month, Mauricio Macri became the first man in Buenos Aires (2007–15). a century from a party other than the two political bastions, the Peronist and the Radical Scioli sought to rally the country’s powerful Peronist Civic Union, to win the Argentine presidency in free base by advocating continuity, with modest changes elections. His election produced a sea change in the in temperament and governing rather than in country’s politics by rejecting the standard bearer of policies and programs; in the final debate, he accused the powerful Peronist establishment, Daniel Scioli. The Macri of planning to gut the social programs that are 8 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent result was closer than was the legacy of Peronist rule. Running with the new coa- predicted by numerous polls taken on the eve of the lition Cambiemos (Let’s Change), Macri distinguished election, exposing the country’s deep polarization over himself from Scioli (and from Kirchner) by promising the 13-year Kirchner legacy.4 a new direction for the country featuring free-market , fiscal responsibility, and foreign policy— In his victory speech, Macri declared, “What happened favoring reconciliation with the United States over today changes the politics of this country.”5 Indeed, close ties to Venezuela and . Macri promised to the imperious governing style of the two Kirchners was implement business-friendly reforms to promote just as controversial with many voters as their faltering growth and restore investor confidence, while protect- economic program. ing many of the popular social welfare programs. The Kirchner administrations—governing from the left wing of —funded a robust welfare state by taxing the country’s productive sectors, restricted The imperious governing exports and controlled consumer prices to placate style of the two Kirchners domestic demand, imposed currency controls that suffocated commerce, defied bondholders who refused was just as controversial offers made by Argentina after its 2001 default on with many voters as their sovereign debt, manipulated economic data to mask and the other failings of statist policies, and faltering economic program. aligned the country with controversial regimes in Venezuela and Iran.6 The independence of the judiciary and the media were targets of relentless attacks by the Polling shows that Argentinians are unhappy with Kirchner administrations.7 the economic repercussions of bloated public spend- For more than a decade, the wily and irascible Kirch- ing and excessive government control, but they are ners brilliantly managed their political coalition and not necessarily opposed to the policies and programs outmaneuvered their opposition. Initially, the benefits themselves. Additionally, the close election indicates of the large welfare state grown by the Kirchners sus- that many in Argentina do not trust the policies of a tained their popularity. However, the underperforming center-right candidate such as Macri, despite his mod- economy and falling commodity prices have taken their erate track record. toll. The negative economic impact of the government’s Many voters also may recall the economic and political policies has become increasingly pronounced in recent turmoil that took place under the country’s most recent years—fueling inflation, widening the deficit, weaken- non-Peronist presidents, Raúl Alfonsín (1983–89) and ing the job market, and leading to heated legal battles Fernando de la Rúa (1999–2001), both of whom were with creditors and investors. The government’s attempt forced to leave office early after public protests over to deal with these economic maladies while maintain- austerity measures. During the recent campaign, Kirch- ing its political control has begun to affect the average ner stalwarts aggressively fanned those fears, further Argentinian’s daily life. perpetuating a narrative that the right could not be 9 The shifting polls during the last six months and the trusted to govern fairly or effectively. close final results show that Argentina’s voters may Scioli did his best to paint Macri as a dangerous choice have settled for genuine but incremental change. Six for Argentina, suggesting that he would do the bidding months ago, the moderate Scioli was running well of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—an institu- ahead of Macri, with voters opting for Peronism’s tion voters associate with unpopular austerity mea- signature brand: stability. Although Scioli’s national sures and economic collapse. Macri dismissed these political career began as vice president under Néstor

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 2 attacks as a symptom of the toxic political environment critic; his dissident Frente Renovador (Renewal Front) fostered by the Kirchner administration. Instead, he holds more than 30 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. emphasized an optimistic message about reforms that President-elect Macri’s team already has indicated his would unlock the country’s economic productivity and intention to meet with Massa, as well as with Scioli, to prosperity. seek common ground on key reforms. Disillusioned Peronists and moderates in the National Congress are Apparently, in the last crucial months before the presi- likely recruits for ad hoc, issue-oriented coalitions. dential elections, Macri’s campaign did a more effective job convincing voters of his moderation than Scioli’s One of Macri’s most crucial challenges will be winning did touting his independence from Kirchner. Ulti- the public’s confidence. In his acceptance speech, he mately, the Argentine electorate, weary of the economic recognized that many Argentinians remain skeptical of stagnation and the authoritarian tactics and corruption his policies, and he promised to “work night and day” of President Kirchner and her inner circle, opted for to win their confidence.12 This will be crucial, because the authentic change Macri offered. jump-starting Argentina’s economy and bringing its fiscal crisis under control will require tough decisions, including cuts to a bloated social-welfare state. The Rocky Road Ahead

Argentina’s new president is inheriting staggering economic challenges, including bloated government Like most major cities, spending, looming inflation, counterproductive eco- Buenos Aires has no nomic and fiscal policies, flatlined growth, growing deficits and debt, dwindling hard currency reserves, shortage of graffiti; and anemic investment.10 Macri appears to be embrac- however, closer inspection ing the opportunity to implement reforms to restore growth, broad-based prosperity, and creditworthiness reveals that almost all of it to one of ’s largest economies. To accom- plish these objectives, he will have to build coalitions carries a political message. around particular initiatives in a congress where his coalition is in the minority and to exert leadership in Political activism in Argentina is not limited to elec- the face of well-organized and sometimes violent pres- tions. Like most major cities, Buenos Aires has no sure groups. shortage of graffiti; however, closer inspection reveals The National Congress will be a major battleground that almost all of it carries a political message. Protests and perhaps the biggest barrier to Macri’s reform and demonstrations are also a common sight, partic- agenda. Despite winning the presidency, Macri’s coa- ularly outside the country’s presidential mansion, the lition does not have a working majority in either the . Chamber of Deputies or the Senate. His administration Even while in government, Peronist leaders have mobi- will have to work with congressmen from opposition lized street protests and violence to intimidate oppo- parties and blocs to pass legislation. His biggest chal- nents or settle political scores; while in opposition, it lenge will be in the Senate, where Cambiemos holds has deployed them with dramatic effect. In 2001, Fer- only 16 of 72 seats, compared to the 43 senators in the nando de la Rúa, the last non-Peronist president before Peronist coalition known as Frente para la Victoria Macri, resigned in the middle of his term—fleeing the (). His administration will have to win Casa Rosada in a helicopter—in the face of massive the support of third-party members and of those within demonstrations against his economic policies. Previous the Peronist bloc, because 37 senators are required to non-Peronist leaders have suffered similar political 11 merely achieve a quorum. fates because of their inability to maintain the public’s Although building coalitions around specific initiatives confidence in the face of political agitation.13 will be difficult, it is not a hopeless cause. The policies The Peronist factions may seek to overcome their of President Kirchner’s administration—particularly its internal differences by rallying against Macri on issues intolerance of dissent within Peronism—have alienated that threaten their movement’s social legacy. Such dissidents within the movement. For example, Sergio political battles may play out very soon on the plazas Massa, a presidential candidate who was eliminated and streets of Buenos Aires. As a former mayor of the after a third-place finish in the first round of ballot- capital city, Macri is uniquely savvy to the use of mobs ing in October, is a former Kirchner ally turned fierce

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 3 to intimidate public officials. Moreover, it is good news minister of production. Juan José Aranguren, former for him that his political movement recently won con- head of Shell Argentina, will serve as minister of energy trol of the city and the province of Buenos Aires, which and mines. , educated at the constitute the center of Argentina’s national politics.14 Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Univer- sity of California, Los Angeles, will be president of the Central Bank. , who has private- Grave Economic Challenges sector experience and served in Macri’s municipal The economic expectations for Macri’s victory could government, was named minister of transport. Jorge not be higher. The private sector is thrilled that one of Triaca will manage the ministry of labor, and Alberto their own—an engineer with business-management Abad has been appointed director of revenue. experience—is taking the reins of government. Cer- Expectations must be tempered in light of the dam- tainly, foreign investors who have kept their distance age done by years of statist policies and corrupt crony from Argentina for more than a decade are eager to capitalism. Government restrictions on business and explore the opportunities created by new economic investment have transformed the economy for the management. worse. Under the two Kirchner administrations, the Far from tamping down expectations, Macri’s team government alienated the international financial mar- has revealed in the local media that immediately upon kets, violated norms of international business, nation- taking office he intends to take action to eliminate alized private companies, expanded trade restrictions, currency controls and the stifling tax on agricultural imposed taxes on the most productive sectors of the products.15 He reportedly will lay the groundwork economy, and generated market uncertainty. Kirch- for talks with the bond holdouts and for an expected ner’s government also is notorious for its falsification currency devaluation. His team also plans to regularly of economic statistics, which, in 2013, made it the first announce new domestic and foreign investments as country ever to be censured publicly for this practice by tangible evidence that his new market-friendly policies the IMF.17 are paying dividends for Argentina. Unsustainable levels of public spending under succes- Macri is moving quickly to have his cabinet in place sive Peronist governments have produced a looming when he takes office on December 10. His picks for fiscal crisis today. For decades, uncontrolled spending key cabinet appointments have been hailed for their on the provincial and federal level has left the govern- diverse political backgrounds and experience. Alfonso ment unable to fulfill its obligations to creditors and Prat-Gay, who will assume the crucial post of finance bondholders, leading the country into a record-breaking minister, already has emerged as the chief spokesman default. The government has been involved in long- of Macri’s economic policies. He brings the important term legal battles with bondholders who have been experience of having been president of the Central unwilling to accept partial compensation. Rather than Bank under both Presidents and bargaining in good faith, Kirchner has personally and Néstor Kirchner, giving him unparalleled insight into publically attacked the holdouts, accusing them of the country’s economic conditions and policymaking “economic and financial terrorism.”18 16 bureaucracy. Macri has indicated that a main focus of his govern- Prat-Gay will coordinate Macri’s economic cabinet—a ment’s economic policies will be restoring the competi- collection of independent ministries and agencies tiveness of the Argentine economy abroad and undoing headed by trusted advisers with considerable experi- many of the protectionist policies of the previous gov- ence in government and the private sector. The new ernment by cutting export duties, lifting export quotas, minister of interior, , is an economist and fostering competitive exports. Macri has criticized and chairman of the budget and finance committee of the government’s battles with bondholders as a major the Buenos Aires municipal legislature and has sig- drag on investor confidence, and his advisers have nificant experience in federal-government planning vowed to reach a negotiated settlement with them.19 He and international development finance. Frigerio will also has promised to combat inflation and cut bloated be a key interlocutor with provincial governors, whose government spending. However, Macri’s broad cam- cooperation and political influence are vital to the paign promise to maintain Argentina’s welfare state country’s fiscal picture and to Macri’s political leverage. may limit the cuts he can make. Francisco “Paco” Cabrera, who coordinated Macri’s In addition to undoing many of the government’s technical team and party think tank, will serve as economic restrictions, Macri also will have to reform

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 4 a politicized business climate that encourages crony- likely grow significantly, because decision makers will be ism over competition. Cronyism, which was used by dealing with a team that campaigned for the presidency the Peronist administration to consolidate its power by touting business-friendly reforms, in contrast to the base and disadvantage its opponents, has become hostile or unpredictable Kirchner administration. Mac- an accepted reality of doing business in Argentina. ri’s victory alone should prove to significantly generate James Roberts, the Heritage Foundation’s research economic growth, investment, trade, jobs, and income in fellow for economic growth and freedom, described the short term. However, this momentum will be lost if the environment saying, “The entire political econ- Macri is unable to implement his economic agenda over omy of Argentina is blighted by the Kirchners’ brand Peronist opposition. of ‘crony capitalism’—one of the most corrosive and hardest-to-eradicate forms of corruption. Foreign investors complain about widespread government and Cronyism has become an private-sector corruption as well as pervasive demands by government officials for bribes.”20 accepted reality of doing Assessments of Argentina’s economy provide insight business in Argentina. into how restrictive regulations have hurt the economy. The World Bank’s most recent Doing Business Report, which lists 189 national economies according to how Among other key cabinet appointments, Macri des- easy it is for businesses to operate, ranks Argentina as ignated Julio Martínez, a Radical Party congressman 121st overall. Additionally, it ranks Argentina as 157th who chaired the chamber of deputies’ defense com- in “ease of starting a business,” 170th in “ease of paying mittee, as minister of defense. Germán Garavano was taxes,” and 173rd in “ease of dealing with construction named minister of justice. will serve permits.”21 The Heritage Foundation’s 2015 Index of as minister of security along with Eugenio Burzaco, Economic Freedom puts Argentina’s economy in its who was designated secretary of security; that team “repressed” category, stating, “Argentina continues to will manage the powerful Federal Police and deal with be mired in a climate of economic repression. Severely drug-related crime, which Macri identified as a priority hampered by state interference, the formal economy during his campaign. grows increasingly stagnant as informal economic Trusted Macri associate was named activity expands.”22 minister of education, a position he held in the president- However, it is not all bad news. Argentina has some elect’s municipal cabinet. Macri decided to retain important economic assets that will work in its favor, Cristina Kirchner’s minister of science and technol- making it easier for Macri’s administration to jump- ogy, Lino Barañao, which some see as a sign of his start growth with the right policies. Despite its eco- willingness to cooperate with credible members of the nomic woes, Argentina is one of the most developed outgoing administration. countries in Latin America. It is ranked relatively high in the Development Program’s 2014 Human Development Index, which measures indica- Argentina’s Regional Leadership tors such as life expectancy, infant mortality, poverty, Macri’s election changes the balance of power, within and Internet accessibility.23 Argentina ranks second Argentina and in the Western Hemisphere as a whole. (behind only Chile) in gross domestic product (GDP) The Kirchners made no secret of their ideological per capita in Latin America.24 hostility to the United States. During their adminis- Argentina is rich in natural resources, which can drive trations, for ideological and other reasons, Argentina’s growth significantly. According to an assessment by the foreign policy became ideologically aligned with the 26 United States Energy Information Administration, the authoritarian regimes of Venezuela, Russia, and Iran. South American country has the fourth-largest shale In regional affairs, Argentina ceded its traditional lead- oil and second-largest shale gas reserves in the world, ership role and deferred to Venezuela and Brazil. which remain largely untapped.25 Macri designated to lead the min- Macri made the economy a key issue for his campaign, istry of foreign affairs. Malcorra, who has served as railing against the current government’s restrictive poli- chief of staff of the United Nations’ Secretary General cies and regulations and promising to restore confidence Ban Ki-moon since 2012, is not a career diplomat. to Argentina’s business market. Investor confidence will Her private-sector management experience, having served in IBM Argentina and as chief executive officer

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 5 of Telecom Argentina, will be crucial to restoring the Macri’s election is expected to significantly shift effectiveness of the country’s diplomacy. Argentina’s diplomacy and regional politics. Under President Kirchner, Argentina has been part of a clique Macri appears ready to make significant changes to of authoritarian Latin American leftist governments. Kirchner’s caustic foreign policy, observing, “The Argentina worked with Venezuela and other regimes to current government has chosen the systematic con- neutralize the Organization of American States and the frontation with almost the entire world, which has left Inter-American Human Rights Commission, so these us very isolated.” He has also indicated his desire for a bodies were no longer effective tools for addressing closer relationship with the United States. After Macri’s abuses of democracy and human rights.30 victory, recognizing the potential benefits of closer ties with Argentina, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce (R-CA) and Ranking Democratic Member Eliot Engel (D-NY) sent a letter to President In October, when the United urging him to prioritize US-Argentine States was criticizing relations, including increasing trade ties. Russian President Vladimir In recent years, Argentina became a willing part of Moscow’s strategy to expand its influence in the region Putin’s offensive in at the expense of US interests. Ties between Argentina Syria, President Kirchner and Russia have grown significantly under President Kirchner. Earlier this year, the two countries signed an applauded his role in “all-encompassing strategic partnership” that signifi- cantly increased trade and cooperation on nuclear fighting terrorism. energy development.27 Russia also has significantly increased its weapons sales to Argentina. In October, More than any sitting in Latin America, when the United States was criticizing Russian Pres- Macri has criticized clearly and forcefully the abuses of ident ’s offensive in Syria, President the authoritarian regime of Nicolás Maduro in Vene- Kirchner applauded his role in fighting terrorism.28 zuela. He has repeatedly pledged to take the dramatic Macri and his predecessor also differ in their step of pushing to remove Venezuela from the Mer- approaches to dealing with Iran and the investigation cosur trade bloc because of its human rights abuses.31 into the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center With Venezuela teetering on the brink of economic col- in the heart of Buenos Aires, long suspected to have lapse, its influence in the region receding, and congres- been the work of Iran’s terror proxy, . In sional elections scheduled for December 6, Argentina’s 2013, amid mounting evidence implicating Iran, Kirch- 180-degree shift in views toward the Caracas regime ner signed a pact with the Iranian government agreeing may coax other leaders to speak more boldly, precisely to collaborate in any investigation, effectively under- when a regional response is required most. By leading mining the ongoing Argentine investigation.29 the way, Macri would help restore Argentina’s influ- ence in hemispheric affairs. The issue gained international attention in early 2015 when Argentine prosecutor Alberto Nisman claimed he had evidence that Kirchner’s administration had accepted Conclusion bribes from the Iranian government in return for blocking the investigation. The scandal grew when Nisman was Argentina is a deeply divided country. Macri can build found dead in his locked apartment, a single bullet wound on his majority if he convinces those who opposed him to the head, the day before he was scheduled to present that his reforms are good for Argentina’s economy his findings before a congressional hearing. His death was and global reputation. Many Peronists who were not initially called a suicide, but investigators subsequently convinced on election day that Macri could govern cited foul play. The investigations into the 1994 bombing effectively or solve their country’s problems may yet be and Nisman’s death remain open. persuaded that a more democratic, consensus-driven style is better for the country as a whole. Macri has promised to nullify the 2013 agreement with Iran and uncover the truth behind these cases. This Thus far, Macri appears to be moving confidently, would be a setback to Iran but an even bigger threat to not dissuaded by the narrower-than-expected mar- members of the Kirchner administration who may be gin of victory. His entire candidacy was based on the implicated in a coverup and murder. view that free-market policies will unlock Argentina’s

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 6 economic potential and produce prosperity, and he is tina’s Kirchner and Her Biggest Media Critic,” Christian betting his presidency that he is right. The Peronists Science Monitor, December 5, 2012, www.csmonitor.com/ have strong majorities in the congress; some may World/Americas/2012/1205/Showdown-looms-between- Argentina-s-Kirchner-and-her-biggest-media-critic. be ready to cooperate, but most will pounce if Macri 8. Richard Lough, “Argentina’s Macri Seen Unscathed falters. To sustain his agenda, Macri must build ad hoc from Humdrum Presidential Debate,” Reuters, November 16, coalitions behind common sense and popular reforms, 2015, www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/16/us-argentina- rack up early victories, tout tangible results, and build election-idUSKCN0T51UD20151116#FSxL8fRVZ18gTYgG.97. up political momentum leading to midterm elections in 9. Juan Carlos Hidalgo, “What to Expect of Argentina’s New President,” Cato Institute, November 23, 2015, www. two years. cato.org/blog/what-expect-argentinas-new-president. All politics are local, and outsiders (least of all poli- 10. Peter Prengaman, “Argentina’s President-Elect Inherits Large Economic Problems,” Associated Press, November 23, cymakers in Washington) cannot do much more than 2015, http://bigstory.ap.org/article/c8c35734a887435e8e06 wish Macri well as he takes on his country’s domestic 77941a85d264/kirchner-era-ends-opposition-win-argentina. challenges. However, as he realigns Argentina’s foreign 11. Marcelo Helfgot, “Un resultado que obliga a un fino policy, the United States and like-minded countries acuerdo con el Congreso y gobernadores” [A Result That should give Macri the credit and support he is due so Requires a Final Accord between the Congress and Gover- nors], Clarin, November 22, 2015, www.clarin.com/politica/ Argentinians see the benefits of constructive partner- Elecciones_2015-Mauricio_Macri-Cambiemos-Congreso- ships. gobernadores_0_1472852737.html. 12. Mauricio Macri, Presidential Campaign Victory Speech (Buenos Aires, Argentina, November 22, 2015). About the Author 13. Francisco E. González, Creative Destruction?: Eco- nomic Crises and Democracy in Latin America (Baltimore: Roger F. Noriega ([email protected]), a former US Johns Hopkins University Press, 2012). ambassador to the Organization of American States 14. María Esperanza Casullo, “Argentina’s Right-Wing and assistant secretary of state for Western Hemi- Awakening,” Jacobin Magazine, November 22, 2015, sphere affairs (2001–05), is a visiting fellow at AEI and www.jacobinmag.com/2015/11/argentina-kirchner-peron- managing director of Visión Américas LLC, a Wash- presidential-elections-scioli-macri/. 15. Jaime Rosemberg, “Macri prepara un shock de medidas ington, DC–based firm with US and foreign clients. para los primeros días” [Macri Prepares Shock Measures for Andrés Martínez-Fernández contributed substantial the First Days], La Nacion, November 29, 2015, www. research to this paper. lanacion.com.ar/1849833-macri-prepara-un-shock-de- medidas-para-los-primeros-dias. 16. Marcelo Helfgot, “Prat Gay: ‘Hasta el 10 de diciembre Notes no vamos a saber con qué nos encontramos’” [Prat Gay: “We Won’t Know What We Will Find until December 10”], Clarin, 1. Howard LaFranchi, “Hugo Chavez Legacy: A Wedge November 27, 2015, www.clarin.com/politica/Prat-Gay- between US, Latin America,” Christian Science Monitor, diciembre-vamos-encontramos_0_1475252613.html. March 5, 2013, www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/ 17. Sandrine Rastello and Ian Katz, “Argentina Is First 2013/0305/Hugo-Chavez-legacy-a-wedge-between-US-Latin- Nation Censured by IMF for Economic Data,” Bloomberg, America-video. February 2, 2013, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013- 2. Jonathan Watts, “Scandals, Protests, Weak Growth: Is 02-01/argentina-becomes-first-nation-censured-by-imf-on- Latin America’s Left in Retreat?,” The Guardian, March 21, inflation-data. 2015, www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/22/latin- 18. “Cristina Fernandez Claims Holdouts Are Committing america-left-tough-times-brazil-argentina-venezuela. ‘Economic and Financial Terrorism,’” MercoPress, September 3. Marcelo Veneranda, “: ‘El problema es 25, 2015, http://en.mercopress.com/2014/09/25/cristina- de Scioli si no puede romper con el kirchnerismo’”[Sergio fernandez-claims-holdouts-are-committing-economic-and- Massa: “The Problem Is Scioli’s If He Can’t Break with Kirch- financial-terrorism. nerism”], La Nación, October 28, 2015, www.lanacion.com. 19. “Macri Must Now Reveal His Economy Minister,” ar/1840399-sergio-massa-el-problema-es-de-scioli-si-no- Buenos Aires Herald, November 23, 2015, www. puede-romper-con-el-kirchnerismo. buenosairesherald.com/article/203577/macri-must-now- 4. Roland Lloyd Parry, “Divided Argentina Awakes to reveal-his-economy-minister. Post-Kirchner Era,” Yahoo News, November 23, 2015, www. 20. James Roberts, “Cronyism and Corruption Are Killing news.yahoo.com/scioli-admits-defeat-macri-argentina- Economic Freedom in Argentina,” Heritage Foundation, April vote-004552154.html. 22, 2010, www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/04/ 5. Mauricio Macri, Presidential Campaign Victory Speech cronyism-and-corruption-are-killing-economic-freedom- (Buenos Aires, Argentina, November 22, 2015). in-argentina. 6. James Roberts, Holding the Kirchners Accountable for 21. World Bank Group, “2016 Doing Business Report,” Argentina’s Economic Freefall, Heritage Foundation, March www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/argentina. 4, 2011, www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/03/holding- 22. Heritage Foundation, “2015 Index of Economic Free- the-kirchners-accountable-for--economic-freefall. dom,” www.heritage.org/index/country/argentina. 7. Jonathan Gilbert, “Showdown Looms between Argen-

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 7 23. United Nations Development Programme, “Human agree-on-an-all-encompassing-strategic-partnership. Development Reports 2014,” http://hdr.undp.org/en/ 28. “Argentina’s Kirchner: ‘Putin Is Global Leader in Fight- content/human-development-report-2014. ing Terrorism,’” Russia Today, October 21, 2015, https:// 24. Central Intelligence Agency, “The World Fact Book,” www.rt.com/news/319317-argentina-kirchner-putin- https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world- terrorism/. factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html. 29. Dexter Filkins, “Death of a Prosecutor,” New Yorker, 25. Collin Eaton, “Argentina, China Ripe for More Shale July 20, 2015, www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/ Development, EIA Says,” FuelFix, June 26, 2015, www.fuelfix. death-of-a-prosecutor. com/blog/2015/06/26/argentina-china-ripe-for-more-shale- 30. “OEA no acepta los cambios a la CIDH propuestos por development-eia-says/#30267101=0. Ecuador”[The OAS Doesn’t Accept the Changes to the IACHR 26. Jaime Daremblum, “Kirchner Antics Put Argentina on Proposed by Ecuador], AméricaEconomía, March 23, 2013, Brink,” Real Clear World, April 21, 2011, www.realclearworld. www.americaeconomia.com/politica-sociedad/politica/oea- com/articles/2011/04/21/argentinas_kirchner_channels_ no-acepta-los-cambios-la-cidh-propuestos-por-ecuador. chavez_99486.html. 31. John Paul Rathbone, “Mauricio Macri to Urge Mer- 27. “Russia and Argentina Agree on an ‘All-Encompassing cosur to Bar Venezuela,” Financial Times, November 23, Strategic Partnership,’” MercoPress, April 24, 2015, http:// 2015, www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c7baeed0-91f9-11e5-94e6- en.mercopress.com/2015/04/24/russia-and-argentina- c5413829caa5.html#axzz3sWU6jcF7.

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 8