Tendenz Zur Globalisierung Von Forschung Setzt Sich Fort

Technologies to change the energy system

th EU-Japan Seminar, Tokyo June 8 , 2012

Dr. Lorenz Granrath Fraunhofer Representative Office Japan www.fraunhofer.jp

 60 Institutes Itzehoe Rostock Lübeck  20,000 employees Bremerhaven Hamburg  Budget: 1.7 Bill. Euro Oldenburg Bremen

Hannover Berlin Potsdam Teltow Braunschweig Magdeburg Cottbus Oberhausen Paderborn Halle Dortmund Schkopau Leipzig  Research for direct application in Duisburg Kassel Schmallenberg Dresden industry St. Augustin Erfurt Jena Aachen Freiberg Euskirchen Gießen Chemnitz  Institutes work as profit centers Wachtberg Ilmenau Darmstadt Würzburg Bayreuth  Close link to universities Erlangen Bronnbach St. Ingbert  Budget: Kaiserslautern Fürth Nürnberg Saarbrücken Karlsruhe Pfinztal 1/3 basic funding research ministry Ettlingen Stuttgart Straubing 1/3 public/industry project funding Freising Freiburg Augsburg Garching 1/3 industrial projects München Oberpfaffenhofen Kandern Prien  Spin Offs by Fraunhofer researchers Efringen- Holzkirchen Kirchen

Health and nutrition Safety and security Mobility and Affordable healthcare Disaster prediction and transportation management Low-emission, reliable mobility in urban areas

Information and Energy and living Production and r e f o h n communication Low-loss generation, environment u a r F

 We conduct research in the following areas: Wind energy Energy-efficient living

Solar energy Intelligent energy distribution

Bioenergy Compact energy storage

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; r e f o h n u a r F Efficient use of © s e g a energy m I

 Further improvement of fossile power generation  More efficient gas and coal power plants

 CCS (Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage), reducing of CO2 emissions  RES and a »new energy economy«  Technologies to use sun, wind, water, geothermal energy  More decentrally organised new technologies for an intelligently networked »new energy economy«: CHPs, H2 generation and use, energy storage, smart grids  Energy efficiency  of buildings and appliances  of industrial process and manufacturing technologies

 Worldwide marktvolume will CAGR: surpass 1000 Bio. Euro/a 5 %  Especially strong increase  renewable energy technologies  in Newly Industrializing Countries  Securing market shares needs continuous technological development

Energy supply Energy efficiency

Source: DIW/ISI; Roland Berger; ECORYS et al.

Increase in transnational patents  Since mid 2000s higher dynamics of innovation in the energy tournaround all patents technologies  Especially renewable/new renewable energy energies technologies are fossile power driving this stations dynamics energy efficiency

Source: Fraunhofer ISI

Share of transnational patents and refered  USA, Germany and publications in 2009/2010 Japan are ahead  China and Korea follow up with high dynamism  Publication indi- cator shows a need to increase the knowledge base in Germany and Japan

Source: Fraunhofer ISI

Specialisation on energy turnaround technologies  Higher than average specialisation shows high „energy change“ technologies importance of energy turnaround technologies in DE and JP

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 No specialisation but A W

general innovation push in R (

China and Korea t r o p

 Challenges for Germany x e

and Japan: o i t a s

 i Keep patent strenght l a i c

 Increase kowledge base in e p

publications S Specialisation patents (RPA)  Go into new fiels with high innovation dynamics RPA, RWA > 0 => specialisation higher than average

Basic year 2020 2050 EUROPEAN UNION

Reduction of Greenhouse Gas 1990 20% at least 80% Increase of Energy Efficiency 1990 20% Share of Renewable Energies 2009: 11.6% 20% GERMANY

Reduction of Greenhouse Gas 1990 40% 80-95% Increase of Energy Efficiency 2008 20% 50% Share of RES total 2011: 12,2% 18% 60% Share of RES on electricity 2011: 20,0% 35% 80% => Fundamental transformation of the energy system is necessary

Renewable Energies already exceeded

fossil capacity installations s a G

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© Fraunhofer 2012 EU: Renewables in the electricity mix 2005 / 2020 Growth from 175 GW to 487 GW installed capacity expected Strong shift towards Wind and Photovoltaics Higher potential for Japan! 0 5 0 2

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Smart grid © Solarsiedlung New business models needed Governing the E-mobility transformation G A

PV: important n e m e i S

Higher costs for © Viktor Mildenberger / PIXELIO Wind: No 1 RES investments Role of nuclear

Grid expansion © Kombikraftwerk and fossil power

Fluctuating Efficiency Mix of RES electricity Sustainable biomass

 Market size by region (GW / Share) Europe 20.9 GW (76%) Asia 4.1 GW (15%) North America 1.9 GW (7%) Rest of World 0.8 GW (3%) Total 27.7 GW (100%)

 Total installed world PV capacity end of 2011: 67.4 GW

 Large European countries trying to reduce their PV market size: Germany, Italy, France

 The share of Asia and North America is steadily growing Data: EPIA PV market report 2011

System price reduced by 50% within 3 years Monthly electricity production of Wind and PV in Germany from January to May 2012 V d P n i W

Electricity generation May 2012 in Germany: Wind and PV are significantly contributing e

k 22.4 GW PV generation e l l Fossil/nuclear power plants > 100 MW i Wind Photovoltaics (ca 30%) 25 May, 12:45 h W

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Global solar radiation in Japan from 1971 to 2000

Source: Kinoshita et al. International Journal of Health Geographics 2007 6:34 Source: European Comission, Joint Research Centre / PVGIS

© Fraunhofer 2012 Research Example: Electric cars will be used widely Efficiency of electro mobility is much higher than of combustion engines Driving distance with energy from 10 m x 10 m 100 m2 by different technologies  Vehicle efficiency Combustion engine: 20% Electric engine: 80%  Highest driving

distance per square Ultra-high-voltage grid metre of energy Europe – North Africa harvest area for PV + e-mobility

² m / 40% cell 30% W ( Worse yield efficiency module y t

i efficiency s n e d

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r 25% plant e f P o h efficiency n

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show reliability y t i and profitablility s n e

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o Puertollano P wavelength (nm) (Spain)

alpha ventus:  Twelve 5 MW class offshore wind turbines, water depth of 30m, 45 km off Borkum island Offshore-windpark alpha ventus in the North Sea  220 GWh per year r e f o h

n  u Clean energy for about a r F

Worldwide unique test rig for Fraunhofer IWES offshore wind turbine rotor blades in Bremerhaven

Intelligent storage: 1) H2 production with RES, storage or use in FCV, etc. 2) electric cars serve as variable storage Intelligent connection: virtual combi power station = 3 windparks, 4 biogas, 20 solar and a pumped hydro plant (Fraunhofer IWES) Saving potential: speed control drives can save 20 - 30% D Industry: 20-25 TWh/a D Residential: 8 TWh/a Saving potential: lighting 80%, EU-15 Industrie: > 40 TWh/a EU-15 Residential: > 16 TWh/a LED-street light 10 TWh/a equals the production of one atomic power station, or two 500 MW coal power plants or 4000 wind turbines (1 MW class)

Latent-heat Solar storage cooling Advanced Future: Zero / plus daylighting energy buildings

Adapted shading Solar electricity

Thermal Solar insulation heating

Geothermal Tight building cooling envelopes Artificial ventilation Geothermal with heat exchanger energy

 A secure and cost-effective energy system with renewable energies is possible  Necessary is a mix of RES, with PV becoming a major pillar of the world energy system  Elements of the future energy system: - mix of renewable energies - efficiency in energy production distribution and consumption - smart grids - e-mobility - storages - zero energy buildings,…