Forest Futures in the Anthropocene: Can Trees and Humans Survive Together?

WORLDFUTURE 2014 Preview

BY DAVID BENGSTON AND MICHAEL J. DOCKRY

Threats to forests range from mega-fires to urban encroachment. Two futurists for the U.S. National Forest Service provide insights on the major issues and potential game changers for the world’s woodlands.

34 THE FUTURIST July-August 2014 • www.wfs.org © 2014 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. • All rights reserved. oresters and futurists estation, mega-fires, urban forests share a long-range per- and growing urban populations, the spective. The lengthy end of wilderness, and water. Poten- growing cycle of trees tial “game changers” for forest eco- F has compelled foresters systems include bioenergy and to plan decades and even hundreds wood-based nanomaterials, syn- of years ahead, in contrast to the thetic biology, and runaway climate short-term view of most fields. The change. interconnected nature of forest ecosystems has also given foresters— Major Issues Shaping like futurists—a systems perspec- Forest Futures tive. As the American naturalist John Muir said, “When one tugs at a • Deforestation and land use single thing in nature, he finds it at- change. The future of forests at the tached to the rest of the world.” most basic level depends upon The world’s forests range from maintaining forests as forests and sparsely populated wilderness to ur- not converting them to agriculture, ban forests, from lush tropical rain ranching, or urban and suburban forests to the vast boreal forests of land uses. After the last ice age, for- the North. Thirty-one percent of the ests expanded to cover about half Earth’s land area and 30% of the the world’s land area. According to United States is covered by forests. the most recent UN Food and Agri- Healthy forests provide a wide culture Organization estimates, 31% range of ecosystem services, natural of the Earth’s surface is covered by assets that are vital to human well- forests, amounting to about 4 billion being and livelihood. For example, hectares. The five countries with the forests sequester carbon from the at- most forest area today are Russia, mosphere; contain about 90% of the Brazil, Canada, the United States, Earth’s terrestrial biodiversity; pro- and China. These countries account vide a home for wildlife; protect wa- for half of the world’s forests. tersheds; regulate the water cycle; Forests and deforestation play im- create scenic landscapes; provide portant roles in the carbon cycle and cultural, recreational, and spiritual climate change. Some scientists esti- opportunities; and produce goods mate that forests sequester around such as timber, fuelwood, fodder, 40% of human-made carbon emis- and other non-timber forest prod- sions annually, but forests also re- ucts. The list of forest goods and ser- lease carbon when deforested. Glob- vices goes on ad infinitum. ally, about 17% of carbon-dioxide Despite their importance, the emissions result from tropical defor- future of forests is by no means clear estation and forest degradation— in what some have called the “An- more than transportation-related thropocene,” the epoch we are enter- greenhouse gas emissions. ing in which the impacts of human Between 2000 and 2012, 1.8 million activities increasingly dominate square kilometers of forest globally Earth’s ecosystems. The actions of were converted to non-forest use, people have always influenced for- while only 0.8 million square kilo- ests, but the increased pace and meters were converted back into for- magnitude of change in human sys- est. Cumulatively, forests are being tems poses many challenges for replaced by non-forest land conver- these ecological life-support systems. sion across the globe. Tropical defor- This article looks at some of the estation continues every year, de- major issues and factors affecting spite the fact that deforestation rates forests in the decades ahead: defor- have been decreasing. Africa, South America, and Oceania have the du- bious distinction of the largest net Member of the U.S. Forest Service’s loss of forest cover, while North Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) America and Europe show modest assessment team examines damage in a increases or little change in forested 2013 fire in the Santa Fe National Forest, area. Leading the world in the rates New Mexico. of planting forests, Asia shows U.S. FOREST SERVICE PHOTO strong positive change in forest

www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST July-August 2014 35 cover. Planted forests are increasing “The actions of people widespread tree death in some re- globally and currently account for have always influenced gions, with the potential to signifi- 7% of the forested area. forests, but the cantly increase fire risk. The future of forests and defores- increased pace and Finally, the costs of wildfire man- tation is complex because it is a func- magnitude of change agement are rising and government tion of political, economic, ecologi- in human systems budgets are declining. In inflation- cal, technological, and social poses many challenges adjusted dollars, the U.S. govern- processes. If the net loss of forests for these ecological ment is spending less today on ef- continues, the world’s forests will life-support systems.” forts to reduce potential fuels for continue to become degraded, with wildfire around communities than it resulting decreases in biodiversity, did in 2002. Fire-suppression bud- ecosystem functioning, and feed- gets dwarf budgets to proactively re- backs that accelerate climate change. duce fire risks in the nation. Another possible outcome could be resulted in dense, overgrown forests All of these factors are leading to the rise of the planted forest if the and a massive accumulation of po- the rise of unusually large and de- rest of the world follows Asia’s lead. tential fuels for fire. Before the ad- structive wildfires. These mega-fires Research is unclear on whether or vent of aggressive firefighting in fire- are distinguished by the extraordi- not plantation forests decrease pres- dependent ecosystems, periodic nary scope and scale of their im- sure on native forests, so it is uncer- low-intensity fires cleared out much pacts. Only about 0.1% of wildland tain if planted forests will replace na- of the forest understory, leaving fires are classified as mega-fires, but tive forests or if they will decrease most trees unaffected. they account for about 95% of total the area deforested. Third, rapid growth in the number area burned and 85% of the total One thing is clear: If more and of homes and communities in for- costs of firefighting. The substantial more forest area is lost each year, ested areas will contribute to the risk amount of carbon released into the there will be more opportunities for of wildfire damage to homes and atmosphere and reduction of seques- plantation forests to be established. danger to people. In the United tration capacity resulting from • Rise of mega-fires. Wildfires States, another 17 million housing mega-fires is a likely feedback to ac- have increased in frequency, inten- units are projected to be built within celerating climate change. sity, and area burned in many areas 50 km of protected areas (national Projections of future fires are around the world, including the U.S. forests and parks, wilderness areas) alarming. In the U.S. West, for ex- West. A “perfect storm” of factors is by 2030. Of these additional homes ample, the median annual area driving future wildfires. First, cli- in and around forests, 12.3 million burned is predicted to increase by a mate change is creating hotter and will be in the U.S. West, a 111% in- factor of two to five for just a 1°C drier conditions. Trends of rising crease since 2010. The fire problem is (1.8°F) increase in global average temperatures, earlier springs, de- much more challenging with more temperature. Intergovernmental creased soil moisture, and drying of people and homes on the landscape. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) biomass fuels are leading to longer Fourth, invasive species and dis- projections for warming suggest a and more severe fire seasons. eases have altered forest composi- further 4°C to 6°C global warming Second, decades of rapid suppres- tion and integrity. Insect outbreaks by the end of this century. Regard- sion of wildfires across the globe has are weakening trees and leading to less of the scenario, mega-fires will continue to shape the world’s forests

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY PHOTO BY J. PRICHER in the decades to come. • Urban forests and growing urban populations. While many of us think of forests as being located in remote or rural environments, there is growing recognition of the existence and importance of urban forests. For the first time in human history, more than 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, that could rise to 70%, or 6.4 billion people, largely in developing countries.

Fire crew works through the night against the Government Flat Complex Fire near The Dalles, Oregon, which was started by lightning on August 16, 2013. The fire consumed approximately 11,434 acres when the photograph was taken.

36 THE FUTURIST July-August 2014 • www.wfs.org U.S. FOREST SERVICE PHOTO The Kelley Fire in the Sawtooth National Forest near Featherville, Idaho, was started by lightning on August 24, 2013, and had consumed approximately 17,346 acres when the photograph was taken.

Not only will urban forests continue to provide direct ecosystem services to the majority of the world’s population, but they also have the potential to foster human community and connectedness to nature. Many academics, indigenous people, and environmentalists argue that connectedness to nature is critical for adapting to and solving the environmental problems of the twenty-first century. The importance of urban forests passed 50 years ago this year. This dicted to shift outside of the pro- cannot be underestimated. Urban landmark legislation strongly em- tected areas they’re named after: forests are valued across the globe phasized the future of wilderness, Joshua Tree National Park may not for their contributions to air pollu- reflected in language like “endur- support the Joshua trees, and the Se- tion reduction, carbon sequestration, ing,” “future generations,” and “for quoia and Kings Canyon National water runoff, and flood control, as the permanent good.” Parks may not contain regenerating well as for their ability to mitigate The importance of wilderness now giant sequoias. Other wilderness urban heat sinks. Urban forests pro- and in the future arises from the stressors include invasive exotic spe- vide habitat for animals and plants, unique values provided by these cies, habitat fragmentation in and and they foster human health and ecosystems: scientific value as a around wilderness areas, and atmo- well-being. Urban foraging move- benchmark of naturalness and how spheric pollution. ments—that is, gathering food and healthy forests function; heritage Wilderness was identified as a medicine—are emerging across the value as a repository of the primeval “disappearing future” in the globe. Urban forests of the future conditions that shaped us as a spe- September-October 2013 issue of will be critical components of green cies and helped forge our national THE FUTURIST. That forecast seems infrastructure systems. identities; bequest value as a natural likely. Wild nature, with its unique New research is beginning to legacy; spiritual and cultural values; values, will be increasingly replaced study cities as ecosystems that in- and moral obligation to future gen- by a tamer form of nature with a clude not only ecological, but also erations. much heavier and negative human social, cultural, institutional, techno- Despite common views that wil- imprint. logical, and economic dimensions. derness is untouched by humans, • Water. Water is predicted to be Urban forests are often cornerstones wilderness from Yellowstone to the one of the biggest emerging environ- to our urban ecosystems. Research Amazon rain forest has been shaped mental issues of this century. As results are not yet consistent for the by human hands over millennia. But global climate patterns change, so role urban forests play in biodiver- in the Anthropocene, human activi- does the water cycle. Climate models sity, but it is clear that urban forests ties are increasingly harming even and recent experience show that pre- are much more diverse than urban the most remote places on the cipitation patterns will become less concrete jungles. More research is planet. For example, glaciologists predictable and more extreme—from needed to understand the extent of can pinpoint the upswing in China’s unprecedented droughts followed urban forest cover, urban forest industrial growth by pollutants en- by unprecedented rain and flooding. health, urban forest values, and hu- cased in ice cores in the Arctic Na- In recent years, there have been his- man relationships to urban forests. tional Wildlife Refuge in the north- toric droughts in Asia, Africa, North • The end of wilderness? In ev- east corner of Alaska. and South America, and Australia. eryday language, the term wilderness A host of human-caused environ- California is experiencing a drought conjures up images of a wild and un- mental stressors are also reshaping that could rival the droughts of the inhabited forest. Wilderness also re- once-wild ecosystems. Foremost is Dust Bowl years. fers to areas that have been officially climate change, wilderness’s greatest At the same time, historic flooding designated and protected for their challenge. Accelerating climate and storms have cascaded through- relatively untouched natural state. change in coming decades will pro- out the world. During the winter of Wilderness in this sense represents foundly affect wilderness ecosys- 2013-2014, England experienced the last remnants of truly wild na- tems. For example, the range of some of the worst flooding and ture. The U.S. Wilderness Act was some emblematic species is pre- storm surges in its history. Extreme

www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST July-August 2014 37 flooding and drought can cause food “Forest futures may trees at the scale necessary to restore insecurity, decreased water availabil- also be shaped by a ecosystems that have become over- ity, damage to infrastructure, human grown with small trees and shrubs number of … wild cards, migrations, and conflicts over natu- and are being killed by unprece- ral resources. No country is exempt including wood-based dented insect and disease outbreaks. from these trends. Extreme water nanomaterials, synthetic It simply does not pay to harvest events will only increase as climate biology, and runaway low-value and low-quality trees, yet change progresses. climate change.” that is exactly what needs to happen Forests, however, are the world’s to improve forest health and the water regulators. On one hand, forests struggling forest-products industry. are negatively affected by extreme pre- A potential game changer that cipitation events—trees die from would remedy this situation would droughts, forests blow down in hurri- be the emergence of new markets for canes, and flooding washes vegetation materials. Forests and agricultural high-value but low-quality woody down rivers and mountainsides. On plants have the potential to produce biomass. This is the promise of a for- the other hand, forests regulate water- more than a billion tons of renew- est-based bioenergy, wood-based sheds, prevent water runoff, provide able, carbon-neutral biomass that nanomaterials, and green chemicals. clean surface water, and help resupply could be used to transition into a For example, researchers are devel- underground aquifers. new global green economy. Forests oping computer screens made from Forests and agroforestry cropping and forest products could be a fun- wood-based nanomaterials. Imagine systems can stabilize and supple- damental component of the emerg- waterproof smartphones that can be ment conventional agriculture by ing green economy. Forests are truly composted! making water more available for a renewable resource—trees can be Other researchers are looking to crops, reducing temperatures, and harvested and regrown and har- use wood-based nanomaterials to providing shade. Forests as part of vested again, over and over. Forest produce solar power and nanosen- green infrastructure systems could products are recyclable and com- sors in paper and wood products to stabilize water supplies and protect postable. Forests are carbon sinks, detect forces, moisture, and chemical against extreme precipitation events. and the products are carbon-neutral. pollutants. Still others are working In recent years, especially for the to develop stronger and lighter Potential Game Changers United States, myriad problems have products that could go into energy- for Forests come together—climate change, in- efficient cars, stronger building ma- vasive species, uncontrolled wild- terials, and coatings for novel and Forest futures may also be shaped land fire, and changes in interna- efficient paper products. Forest by a number of potential game tional trade—that make it difficult to products researchers and engineers changers or wild cards, including use forest management to restore are trying to develop efficient tech- wood-based nanomaterials, syn- ecosystems, to make them more re- nologies that convert wood into elec- thetic biology, and runaway climate silient to future environmental tricity, fuel, and heat. One can envi- change. change, and to foster economically sion the emergence of local energy • Advanced energy and materi- sustainable businesses. In essence, it systems based upon renewable als: Bioenergy and cellulosic nano- is economically difficult to harvest woody biomass. There is new research going on

MARISTERRA LEMES, INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS DA AMAZONIA / NSF throughout the world to bring many of these new technologies to market. If these efforts are successful, we will be able to produce our energy, chemicals, plastics, and electronics from renewable and carbon-neutral sources—trees. • Synthetic biology is an emerging field with great potential to posi- tively and negatively affect forests and other natural systems in the future. Already moving out of the lab and into commercial applica-

In the Amazon, a mahogany tree is felled. Deforestation rates have decreased, but deforestation continues in South America, which has the world’s largest net loss of forest cover along with Africa and Oceania.

38 THE FUTURIST July-August 2014 • www.wfs.org © WIM THIERY / UNIVERSITY OF LEUVEN, BELGIUM Vegetation has replaced felled rain forests in much of the Congo basin. Less rain forest means less evaporation and increased warming. A study by researchers at University of Leuven, Belgium, concludes that deforestation could intensify climate change in the Congo basin by 50%.

tions, synthetic biology is the use of chemically synthesized DNA to create organisms with novel traits—or, as some have described it, “genetic engineering on steroids.” Some believe that synthetic biology will be one of the transformative technologies needed to address many of the most important challenges facing humanity, such as climate change, renewable energy, and sustainable food production. Poten- tial environmental applications in- leased into the environment, the such a temperature rise would be clude saving endangered species genie is out of the bottle. It is critical more like dystopian science fiction and bringing back extinct ones, us- to assess the risks and effectively than scientific thinking about climate ing engineered bacterial cells as bio- regulate the applications of synthetic change to date. logical sensors to identify the pres- organisms in order to avoid future • • • ence of toxins in the environment, ecological calamities. The world’s forests provide eco- and creating bacteria that can clean • Runaway climate change. In the system services vital for a healthy up oil spills and other pollutants. prevailing “gradualist paradigm,” planet and human well-being. Many Reforestation could be promoted climate change is viewed as result- challenges will have to be faced to by using engineered bacteria to stim- ing in ecological changes that are cu- sustain future forests. Some of these ulate root growth and promote soil mulative and incremental. Such challenges are similar to ones forest stability. It is easy to imagine creat- gradual climate change would result planners, managers, and policy making trees with genes engineered to in profound ecological changes over ers have successfully dealt with in keep them free of disease or to pro- many decades. the past; others are new and daunt- duce desirable wood properties us- An alternative view held by some ing. Tackling these issues now with ing novel nanomaterials. scientists is that climate change the help of foresight is needed to But the potential negative effects might occur through a combination pass on this natural legacy. of synthetic biology have also cre- of gradual and abrupt changes as Planting a tree or conserving a for- ated concern among some scientists, various tipping points are reached. est is an act of hope for future gener- bioethicists, and public figures. The Positive feedbacks would amplify ations. ❑ unintended ecological consequences changes within the climate system, of synthetic genomes, artificial cells, creating a runaway climate change and engineered life forms are impos- catastrophe not represented in any sible to predict and could be dire. IPCC scenario. Despite the best efforts to control There are a number of possible tip- them, synthetic microorganisms ping points that could lead to run- could escape, persist, and spread away climate change. One is the re- into natural environments. They lease of trillions of tons of methane might disrupt ecological functions, from beneath the oceans. The release alter habitats and food webs, or of methane trapped in frozen sedi- Bengston Dockry transfer their altered DNA into natu- ments is believed to have triggered ral organisms. Some worry that an the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maxi- About the Authors David N. Bengston is an environmental engineered virus could wipe out en- mum, a period of extreme warming futurist and Michael J. Dockry is a social tire native populations and wreak and mass extinction 55 million years forester, both with the U.S. Forest Service, havoc with biodiversity. ago. Rapidly warming oceans today Northern Research Station, Saint Paul, Min- Synthetic biology has great poten- could destabilize methane sediments nesota. Web site www.nrs.fs.fed.us. tial to help conserve forests and the and result in another massive release This article is a preview of their confer- ecosystem services they provide, but of methane that could raise global ence presentation at WorldFuture 2014: it also poses significant ecological temperatures by more than 6°C What If, which will take place July 11-13 in risks. Once novel organisms are re- (10.8°F). The ecological effects of Orlando, Florida.