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Home , Deforestation, Population pressure

Making the Link REFERENCE BUREAU

HEALTHY PEOPLE NEED HEALTHY — POPULATION AND

eforestation worldwide continues at a net rate of 9.4 million hectares a year, posing D a serious threat to communities and natural at the outset of the 21st century.1 This Emerging Policy Issues in Population, Health, and the Environment brief examines how deforestation threatens human and and highlights the underlying causes of deforestation, while paying special atten- Photo removed for tion to the role of human population dynamics in copyright reasons this process. Today, forests cover about 27 percent of the world’s area, compared to roughly 50 percent 10,000 years ago.2 In and , forests extend over roughly half the land, com- pared to less than one-fourth in , Asia, and Oceania. Of the forested land that remains today, Deforestation continues to threaten human and ecological 55 percent is found in less developed countries.3 well-being throughout the world. During the 1990s, human activities resulted in the gross deforestation of an area roughly the size of and combined (146 shown that, on average, is 30 percent million hectares, or 563,709 square miles). lower and temperatures are 1 degree Celsius high- During that same time period, 52 million hectares er in deforested areas of the Amazon than in were regained due to efforts and nat- forested areas.5 Ironically, deforestation can also ural regrowth. Rates of net deforestation (gross lead to increased flooding, even if rainfall is deforestation less reforestation, natural regrowth, reduced. Forests regulate runoff from precipita- and growth) were highest in South tion, buffering against widespread flooding and America and Africa, while high rates of gross . The removal of , especially in hilly deforestation in Asia were offset by expanding for- or mountainous areas, impairs the ability of the est (see Table 1, page 2). In general, to absorb and retain water and release it slow- the 1990s saw cover expand in temperate ly over time. less developed countries, decline in tropical less Loss of food, medicine, and fuel—Forests, developed countries, and remain relatively stable which have the highest species diversity of any ter- in more developed countries.4 restrial , serve as important and depend- able sources of food, medicine, and fuel for Critical Impacts of Deforestation surrounding communities. Tropical forests, where Deforestation, and related , can the majority of deforestation takes place, provide have harmful and even deadly consequences for for up to two-thirds of known terrestrial both people and the environment: species.6 As forests are destroyed, degraded, or Less precipitation, higher temperatures, fragmented, many of these valuable species of greater flooding—As trees that normally help plants and animals—any number of which con- induce precipitation in an area are removed, the tain precious genetic resources that could lead to area’s becomes increasingly arid, often new pharmaceuticals or provide important tradi- leading to . Recent research has tional medicines—are threatened or lost forever. 2 PRB Making the Link 2001

Table 1 diseases such as typhus and can spread. Top Gains and Losses of by Country, Migrants to recently deforested areas typically do 1990–2000 not have the immunity to these diseases that Net Forest Net Forest indigenous forest dwellers have built up over time. Country Loss (ha) Country Gain (ha) In addition, as deforested watersheds lose the ability 23,093,000 18,063,000 to provide adequate amounts of water consistently, 13,124,000 3,880,000 reduced flows lead to stagnation and falling per 9,589,000 Belarus 2,562,000 capita supplies of water. These conditions are ripe Zambia 8,509,000 Kazakhstan 2,390,000 for the spread of cholera and dysentery. 6,306,000 Russia 1,353,000 Exacerbating —As trees grow, Dem. Rep. of Congo 5,324,000 Spain 860,000 they absorb from the atmosphere and store 5,169,000 616,000 it in their tissues. When forests are cleared or 3,984,000 Portugal 570,000 burned, this carbon is released back into the atmos- 3,199,000 516,000 phere as , which traps the sun’s ener- 2,851,000 501,000 gy and raises global temperatures. Forests contain Australia 2,820,000 390,000 40 percent of all stored carbon, more than any 2,688,000 381,000 other terrestrial ecosystem, and thus help buffer 8 ha= hectares against global warming. The Intergovernmental NOTE: The FRA 2000 recalculated the 1990 forest cover figures, using the same definitions Panel on Climate Change, a UN-sponsored consor- and methodologies used for calculating the 2000 figures, in order to make the comparison tium of leading scientists, found that land-use between 1990 and 2000 possible. SOURCE: Food and Organization of the (FAO), “Forest Resources change—of which tropical deforestation is the most Assessment (FRA) 2000, Forest Cover Change” (www.fao.org/forestry/fo/fra/index.jsp, accessed significant component—was responsible for rough- Aug. 13, 2001). ly 20 percent of human-induced carbon emissions during the 1990s.9 If left unchecked, global warm- ing could melt polar ice caps, raising sea levels by Declining crop yields, loss of vital soil nutri- several feet and threatening low-lying countries. ents, and degradation of surrounding ecosys- Such a development would be devastating for many tems—Trees serve as barriers to soil and countries. For example, if the sea level were to rise ensure that vital nutrients are naturally returned by 150 centimeters, could lose up to to the soil. In many tropical areas, valuable soil 16 percent of its land area, displacing 34 million erodes and crop yields can quickly decline when people.10 trees are cleared to make way for agriculture or Loss of aesthetic value and natural beauty— . Eroded soil often ends up in streams Many people view forests as natural treasures and and rivers, leading to , contamination, areas of beauty that lose spiritual and aesthetic and stagnation. These processes, in turn, disrupt value when destroyed through deforestation and aquatic ecosystems, often killing fish and other forest degradation. aquatic organisms. Spreading tropical diseases, reduced quantities Drivers of Deforestation of safe water—The spread of some potentially fatal Deforestation is directly attributable to tropical diseases (including , hemorrhagic clearing land for agriculture or , building fever, filariasis, , and cholera) often fol- , , and extracting forest products. lows paths of deforestation.7 Mosquitoes thrive in These direct causes of deforestation are them- recently deforested areas as the number of stagnant selves symptoms of underlying demographic, bodies of water (pools, culverts, pits, and streams social, and economic interactions. While patterns clogged by felled trees) needed for breeding of deforestation vary, its four main essential caus- increase. As some forest animal species such as birds es have been summarized in the phrase, “people, and bats disappear from an area, insect , plunder, and policy.”11 The relationships swell, facilitating the transmission of disease. and interactions among these forces are often Deforestation and hunting also remove the natural very complex, challenging our ability to under- predators of rodents. As their numbers multiply, stand this critical phenomenon. 3 PRB Making the Link 2001

PEOPLE: The Complex Role of Population Although disagreements exist over the connections Growth An increase in , whether due to natural between population and deforestation, at some increase or migration, heightens the probability of defor- level demographics do matter. estation in any given area. For each additional person, there are additional resource demands (food, fuelwood, shelter, land, etc.), resulting in increased pressure on forest tions led Jacques Diouf, director general of the Food and resources. The impact of each additional person will vary Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), to depending on their particular needs and the availability of state that, “These differences [among countries] cannot be employment opportunities outside the agriculture and explained by on forests alone, rather sectors. In one study of deforestation in Costa they are apparently the results of economic developments at Rica, doubling the number of potential cultivators in an large, and national forest or policies.”15 area adjacent to forested land increased the likelihood of While many analysts believe that deforestation in the area by 37 percent.12 does contribute to deforestation in one way or another, While the connection between population growth and there are disagreements over the precise role that it plays. deforestation often seems clear when examined at the local Some believe that population dynamics—growth, density, level, the links are less obvious at higher levels. First consider and migration—are the primary drivers of deforestation, a regional example. Population pressure on forests is while others assert that these dynamics merely exacerbate arguably much greater in Asia or alleviate more fundamen- than in any other region of tal causes (poverty, land-use the world (see Figure 1, page policies, and resource con- 4). Yet rates of net deforesta- sumption). To differing tion in Africa and South degrees, both of these views America (7.8 percent and 4.1 affirm the value of policies percent, respectively) were that attempt to preserve much higher during the forests by slowing popula- 1990s than in Asia (0.7 tion growth, such as provid- percent).13 ing access to voluntary Nor is the connection or restrict- clearer at the national level. ing migration into ecologi- Some countries that experi- cally sensitive areas. A third enced substantial population school of thought is less con- growth in the 1990s, for vinced that population is an example, actually gained for- important factor in defor- est cover. In Bangladesh and estation, stressing instead the Gambia, population growth primacy of the other causes rates were high (averaging 2.2 mentioned above.16 percent and 3.3 percent per Photo removed for Although disagreements year, respectively, as opposed copyright reasons exist over the connections to 1.4 percent worldwide), between population and yet each of them saw a net deforestation, at some level increase in forest cover.14 demographics do matter. India, the world’s second However, the population- most populous country, deforestation link may not added more than 160 million be as clear at the national or people in the 1990s, but international levels due to gained forest cover due to the wide variation between growth of plantations Deforestation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest leaves an ugly scar on countries and regions in the that offset high rates of natur- the land, increasing the likelihood of flooding and while other variables associated al forest loss. Such observa- reducing habitat and threatening surrounding aquatic ecosystems. with deforestation. PRB Making the Link 2001 4

POVERTY: Subsistence Farming and Figure 1 Deforestation Poverty and a general lack of access to capital, Per Capita Forest Pressures Highest in Asia and Central and * resources, and contribute to deforesta- tion in two ways. Percent First, poor communities often fail to provide adequate forest resource management, leading to 60.6 Share of general environmental degradation. Poor rural fam- ilies are more likely to support themselves with Share of world's forest subsistence slash and burn agriculture; use forest products as fuel, , and building materials; and live in ecologically fragile zones.17 In Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal, extremely high 26.9 rates of deforestation are associated with the expan- 22.9 sion of cash crops (groundnuts, cotton, , and 16.8 14.2 13.3 14.2 cocoa) by large companies for export, which direct- 11.9 8 ly displaces forests and reduces the availability of 5.1 5.7 arable land for subsistence farmers, driving them to 0.5 18 Asia Africa Central & South Oceania Europe encroach on forested land. North America Second, in poor rural communities, the con- America tinuing need for family labor supports high fertility *Africa and South America experienced greatest loss of forest cover between 1990 and 2000. and rapid population growth, which some analysts SOURCES: Population Reference Bureau, 2001 World Population Data Sheet; and Food and believe places additional strain on forests (see previ- Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), “Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) ous section). 2000, Forest Cover 2000” (www.fao.org/forestry/fo/fra/index.jsp, accessed Aug. 16, 2001).

PLUNDER: Economic Development and Consumption of Forest Products to clear land and subsidies of agricultural products More developed countries such as Japan and the and inputs. United States can drive deforestation in less devel- In Brazil, where 14 percent of all natural for- oped countries through the import of tropical est loss in the occurs, 60 percent of the hardwoods. Many less developed countries exploit arable land is owned by just 2 percent of the their own forest resources, seeking funds to pay population. This inequitable land distribution has down foreign debts or to pay for expensive driven a growing number of landless peasants into imported goods needed to support economic forested regions. As in many less developed coun- development.19 Less developed countries such as tries, the system in Brazil is structured or Indonesia (which produces almost 20 so that forest clearing and cultivation gives - percent of the world’s plywood) log their forests, ers claim to the land and access to fiscal subsidies often in an unsustainable manner, to meet and incentives. Deforestation is viewed as an demand in more developed countries.20 Less investment on the part of the farmer to be developed countries can also drive deforestation rewarded with land title and access to credit. beyond their own borders. China’s declared mora- Large-scale ranchers have also moved into the torium on national deforestation has resulted in Amazon and cleared even larger tracts of land for rapid deforestation in northern Myanmar and on cattle and other livestock to take advantage of the Russian border by Chinese loggers eager to other favorable credit policies. As a result, large meet a growing appetite for back home.21 swaths of the Amazon have been destroyed.22

POLICY: Incentives That Drive Implications for Policymakers Deforestation Continued deforestation at current rates will have Government policies and programs can often grave consequences for the health of both humans encourage deforestation through fiscal incentives and ecosystems around the world. Since the inter- 5 PRB Making the Link 2001

actions that influence deforestation are complex, 12 Luis Rosero-Bixby and Alberto Palloni, “Population and policies designed to address the problem should Deforestation in ,” Working No. 96-19 (University of Wisconsin-Madison: Center for take care to examine the local context and target and Ecology, 1996): 24. factors that most affect rates of deforestation in a 13 FAO, “FRA 2000 Forest Cover Change.” given area. The role of population dynamics 14 For the deforestation rates, see “FRA 2000 Forest Cover (growth, density, and migration) should always be Change.” For the population growth data, see UN, World Population Prospects: the 2000 Revision (New York: United considered in combination with other causes of Nations, 2001). This observation may be due to changes in deforestation. forest cover estimation techniques—changes in FAO’s defini- In the long run, controlling deforestation tions and information base combined with gaps and inconsis- requires addressing the numerous social and tencies in the quality of the data mean that the results from the 1990 and 2000 FRA are not directly comparable. demographic interactions that contribute to this 15 “Africa, South America Blamed for Deforestation,” Agence process. This calls for multisectoral approaches France-Presse, Jan. 23, 2001. that encompass all four drivers described here: 16 For more discussion of competing perspectives on and people, poverty, plunder, and policy. While meet- various models of population-environment interactions with respect to deforestation, see Alain Marcoux, “Population and ing this challenge will not be easy, the world’s Environmental Change: From Linkages to Policy Issues,” SD forests are precious resources that must be man- Dimensions, a publication of the FAO’s Sustainable aged sustainably if people and the natural environ- Development Department (January 1999), accessed online at ment they depend upon are to remain healthy. www.fao.org/sd/Wpdirect/Wpre0089.htm, on Aug. 7, 2001. 17 J.E.M. Arnold and P. Bird, Forests and the Poverty- Environment Nexus (New York: United Nations Development References Programme and , 1999): 4-5. 1 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 18 Solon Barraclough et al., “The Social Dynamics of (FAO), “Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) 2000 Summary Deforestation in Developing Countries: Principal Issues and Findings,” accessed online at www.fao.org/forestry/fo/ Research Priorities,” Discussion Paper No. 16 (New York: fra/index.jsp, on Aug. 14, 2001. Deforestation refers to deple- United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, tion of tree crown cover to less than 10 percent of its original November 1990): 15. state in any given area. 19 Dedanna Donovan, “Strapped for Cash, Asians Plunder 2 World Resources Institute, World Resources 2000-2001 Their Forests and Endanger Their Future,” Effects of the Asian (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2000): 90. Financial Crisis Series No. 39 (Honolulu, Hawaii: East-West 3 FAO, “FRA 2000 Forest Cover 2000,” accessed online at Center, 1999): 3-4. www.fao.org/forestry/fo/fra/index.jsp, on Aug. 13, 2001. 20 Tom Gardner-Outlaw and Robert Engelman, Forest Futures: 4 FAO, “FRA 2000 Forest Cover Change,” accessed online at Population, Consumption and Wood Resources (Washington, www.fao.org/forestry/fo/fra/index.jsp, on Aug. 13, 2001. DC: Population Action International, 1999): 34. More developed countries, following the UN classification, 21 Jake Brunner, Kirk Talbot, and Chantal Elkin, Logging include all of Europe and North America, plus Australia, Burma’s Frontier Forests (Washington, DC: World Resources Japan, and New Zealand. All other countries are classified as Institute, 1998): 15. less developed. 22 Antonio Carlos Diegues, “The Social Dynamics of 5 J. Couzin, “Landscape Changes Make Regional Climate Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: An Overview,” Run Hot and Cold,” Science 283 (1999): 317-319. Discussion Paper No. 36 (New York: United Nations Research 6 Norman Myers, The Primary Source: Tropical Forests and Institute for Social Development, July 1992), accessed online Our Future (New York: Norton, 1992): 50. at www.unrisd.org/engindex/publ/list/dp/dp36/toc.htm, on 7 N.G. Gratz, “Tropical Environments, Man, and Vector- Aug. 7, 2001. borne Diseases,” in International Perspectives on Environment, Development, and Health Toward a Sustainable World, eds. Acknowledgments Gurinder S. Shahi et al. (New York: Springer Publishing Co., Jonathan G. Nash prepared this policy brief with assis- 1997): 212-213. tance from PRB staff and other colleagues. Thanks are due to 8 World Resources Institute, World Resources 2000-2001: 101. Andy Kennedy, Roger-Mark De Souza, Nancy Yinger, Liz 9 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Land- Creel, Lori Ashford, Fred Meyerson, Emily Matthews, Tom Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (Cambridge, UK: Gardner-Outlaw, Luis Rosero-Bixby, and Naida Passion, who Cambridge University Press, 2000): 5. reviewed drafts and provided useful comments. 10 Sven Åke Bjørke and Megumi Seki, UN Environment This work has been funded by the U.S. Agency for Programme, “Vital Climate Change Graphics: Potential International Development (USAID) under the MEASURE Impacts of Climate Change,” accessed online at Communication project (HRN-A-00-98-000001-00). www.grida.no/climate/vital/33.htm, on Aug. 7, 2001. 11 Katrina Brown and David Pearce, eds., The Causes of © October 2001, Population Reference Bureau Tropical Deforestation: the Economics and Statistical Analysis of Factors Giving Rise to the Loss of Tropical Forests (Vancouver:

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