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Climate Change–Induced Water Stress and Its Impact on Natural and Managed Ecosystems

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Climate Change–Induced Water Stress and Its Impact on Natural and Managed Ecosystems STUDY Policy Department Economic and Scientific Policy CLIMATE CHANGE–INDUCED WATER STRESS AND ITS IMPACT ON NATURAL AND MANAGED ECOSYSTEMS IP/A/CLIM/ST/2007-06 JANUARY 2004 PE 393.522 This study was requested by the European Parliament's Temporary Committee on Climate Change. Only published in English. Authors: Jason Anderson (ed.), Kathryn Arblaster, Justin Bartley, Tamsin Cooper, Marianne Kettunen (IEEP) Timo Kaphengst, Anna Leipprand, Cornelius Laaser, Katharina Umpfenbach (Ecologic) Esko Kuusisto, Ahti Lepistö, Maria Holmberg (SYKE) Administrator: Gian Paolo MENEGHINI Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy DG Internal Policies European Parliament Rue Wiertz 60 B-1047 Brussels Tel: +32 (0)2 283 22 04 Fax: +32(0)2 284 90 02 E-mail: [email protected] Manuscript completed in January 2008. The opinions expressed in this document do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and receives a copy. E-mail: poldep- [email protected]. IP/A/CLIM/ST/2007-06 PE 393.522 STUDY FOR THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT, PUBLIC HEALTH AND FOOD SAFETY (IP/A/ENVI/FWC/2006-172/LOT1/C1/SC12) CLIMATE CHANGE–INDUCED WATER STRESS AND ITS IMPACT ON NATURAL AND MANAGED ECOSYSTEMS CONTENTS Executive summary.......................................................................................................i 1 climate change and water resources ...................................................................1 1.1 Scientific evidence on climate change impacts on water............................1 1.1.1 Droughts ............................................................................................3 1.1.2 Floods ................................................................................................4 1.1.3 Water quality .....................................................................................5 1.2 Consequences for society............................................................................7 1.2.1 Impacts on important sectors.............................................................7 Agriculture ...................................................................................................................... 7 Industry and energy .................................................................................................... 8 Transport........................................................................................................................10 1.2.2 Human health...................................................................................10 1.2.3 Potential political conflicts over water ............................................11 1.2.4 Cross-border water management principles ....................................12 1.3 Adaptation and policy approaches ............................................................13 1.3.1 Adaptation measures .......................................................................13 Infrastructure development ...................................................................................14 Landscape management approaches.................................................................15 Improving the efficiency of water use and reducing demand ..............16 Information and risk management.....................................................................17 Awareness and current status of implementation of adaptation measures in Europe...................................................................................................17 1.3.2 Policy approaches at European level...............................................19 The Green Paper on Adaptation .........................................................................19 EU water policy..........................................................................................................20 Agricultural Policy....................................................................................................22 EU funding and adaptation....................................................................................22 1.3.3 International level activities, adaptation and development .............23 IP/A/CLIM/ST/2007-06 PE 393.522 2 IMPACTS OF changes in WATER regimes ON LAND AND SOIL, and their role in climate change adaptation and mitigation..................................25 2.1 Expected impacts of climate change-related water stress on natural ecosystems..........................................................................................................25 2.1.1 Deserts .............................................................................................26 2.1.2 Grasslands and Savannas.................................................................26 2.1.3 Mediterranean Ecosystems..............................................................26 2.1.4 Tundra and Arctic/Antarctic Ecosystems.........................................27 2.1.5 Mountains........................................................................................27 2.1.6 Wetlands ..........................................................................................27 2.2 Impacts on Crop and Grazing Land ..........................................................28 2.2.1 Impacts on European agriculture.....................................................29 2.3 Opportunities for Enhancement of Water Regimes and Climate Mitigation Regimes through Land and Soil Management ...................................................30 2.3.1 Water resources ...............................................................................31 2.3.2 Mountain regions.............................................................................32 2.3.3 Grasslands........................................................................................32 2.3.4 Wetlands ..........................................................................................32 2.3.5 Biodiversity and ecosystem services ...............................................33 2.3.6 Agricultural adaptation measures ....................................................33 2.4 Agricultural mitigation measures..............................................................36 2.4.1 Soil Carbon Sequestration...............................................................36 2.4.2 Mitigation through bioenergy crops ................................................39 Production chains.......................................................................................................39 Land Use Implications ............................................................................................40 Biodiversity Impacts ................................................................................................42 2.5 The contribution of the Common Agricultural Policy to the Climate challenge ...............................................................................................43 3 forests, deforestation and climate change.........................................................45 3.1 Introduction and Background....................................................................45 3.2 Forest Ecosystem Services........................................................................46 3.2.1 Forests and climate ..........................................................................47 Carbon Storage............................................................................................................47 Biomass supply...........................................................................................................48 Microclimate regulation .........................................................................................49 3.2.2 The role of forests in small and large scale water cycles ................49 3.2.3 Forests, biodiversity and livelihoods...............................................50 IP/A/CLIM/ST/2007-06 PE 393.522 3.2.4 Forests and climate change adaptation ............................................51 3.3 Overview: Global Deforestation and Forest Degradation.........................51 3.4 Causes of Deforestation and Forest Degradation......................................53 3.4.1 General background.........................................................................53 3.4.2 Economic factors .............................................................................54 3.4.3 Institutional factors..........................................................................56 3.5 Impacts of deforestation............................................................................57 3.5.1 Impacts of deforestation on biodiversity .........................................57 3.5.2 Impacts of deforestation on ecosystem services..............................58 Climate regulation .....................................................................................................58 Water regulation and purification ......................................................................59 Other forest related ecosystem services..........................................................60 3.5.3 Socio-economic impacts of deforestation .......................................61 3.6 Policy approaches and Economic Perspectives on combating deforestation in the future...................................................................................61 3.6.1 Regulatory Instruments ...................................................................62
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