STUDY Policy Department Economic and Scientific Policy CLIMATE CHANGE–INDUCED WATER STRESS AND ITS IMPACT ON NATURAL AND MANAGED ECOSYSTEMS IP/A/CLIM/ST/2007-06 JANUARY 2004 PE 393.522 This study was requested by the European Parliament's Temporary Committee on Climate Change. Only published in English. Authors: Jason Anderson (ed.), Kathryn Arblaster, Justin Bartley, Tamsin Cooper, Marianne Kettunen (IEEP) Timo Kaphengst, Anna Leipprand, Cornelius Laaser, Katharina Umpfenbach (Ecologic) Esko Kuusisto, Ahti Lepistö, Maria Holmberg (SYKE) Administrator: Gian Paolo MENEGHINI Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy DG Internal Policies European Parliament Rue Wiertz 60 B-1047 Brussels Tel: +32 (0)2 283 22 04 Fax: +32(0)2 284 90 02 E-mail: [email protected] Manuscript completed in January 2008. The opinions expressed in this document do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and receives a copy. E-mail: poldep- [email protected]. IP/A/CLIM/ST/2007-06 PE 393.522 STUDY FOR THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT, PUBLIC HEALTH AND FOOD SAFETY (IP/A/ENVI/FWC/2006-172/LOT1/C1/SC12) CLIMATE CHANGE–INDUCED WATER STRESS AND ITS IMPACT ON NATURAL AND MANAGED ECOSYSTEMS CONTENTS Executive summary.......................................................................................................i 1 climate change and water resources ...................................................................1 1.1 Scientific evidence on climate change impacts on water............................1 1.1.1 Droughts ............................................................................................3 1.1.2 Floods ................................................................................................4 1.1.3 Water quality .....................................................................................5 1.2 Consequences for society............................................................................7 1.2.1 Impacts on important sectors.............................................................7 Agriculture ...................................................................................................................... 7 Industry and energy .................................................................................................... 8 Transport........................................................................................................................10 1.2.2 Human health...................................................................................10 1.2.3 Potential political conflicts over water ............................................11 1.2.4 Cross-border water management principles ....................................12 1.3 Adaptation and policy approaches ............................................................13 1.3.1 Adaptation measures .......................................................................13 Infrastructure development ...................................................................................14 Landscape management approaches.................................................................15 Improving the efficiency of water use and reducing demand ..............16 Information and risk management.....................................................................17 Awareness and current status of implementation of adaptation measures in Europe...................................................................................................17 1.3.2 Policy approaches at European level...............................................19 The Green Paper on Adaptation .........................................................................19 EU water policy..........................................................................................................20 Agricultural Policy....................................................................................................22 EU funding and adaptation....................................................................................22 1.3.3 International level activities, adaptation and development .............23 IP/A/CLIM/ST/2007-06 PE 393.522 2 IMPACTS OF changes in WATER regimes ON LAND AND SOIL, and their role in climate change adaptation and mitigation..................................25 2.1 Expected impacts of climate change-related water stress on natural ecosystems..........................................................................................................25 2.1.1 Deserts .............................................................................................26 2.1.2 Grasslands and Savannas.................................................................26 2.1.3 Mediterranean Ecosystems..............................................................26 2.1.4 Tundra and Arctic/Antarctic Ecosystems.........................................27 2.1.5 Mountains........................................................................................27 2.1.6 Wetlands ..........................................................................................27 2.2 Impacts on Crop and Grazing Land ..........................................................28 2.2.1 Impacts on European agriculture.....................................................29 2.3 Opportunities for Enhancement of Water Regimes and Climate Mitigation Regimes through Land and Soil Management ...................................................30 2.3.1 Water resources ...............................................................................31 2.3.2 Mountain regions.............................................................................32 2.3.3 Grasslands........................................................................................32 2.3.4 Wetlands ..........................................................................................32 2.3.5 Biodiversity and ecosystem services ...............................................33 2.3.6 Agricultural adaptation measures ....................................................33 2.4 Agricultural mitigation measures..............................................................36 2.4.1 Soil Carbon Sequestration...............................................................36 2.4.2 Mitigation through bioenergy crops ................................................39 Production chains.......................................................................................................39 Land Use Implications ............................................................................................40 Biodiversity Impacts ................................................................................................42 2.5 The contribution of the Common Agricultural Policy to the Climate challenge ...............................................................................................43 3 forests, deforestation and climate change.........................................................45 3.1 Introduction and Background....................................................................45 3.2 Forest Ecosystem Services........................................................................46 3.2.1 Forests and climate ..........................................................................47 Carbon Storage............................................................................................................47 Biomass supply...........................................................................................................48 Microclimate regulation .........................................................................................49 3.2.2 The role of forests in small and large scale water cycles ................49 3.2.3 Forests, biodiversity and livelihoods...............................................50 IP/A/CLIM/ST/2007-06 PE 393.522 3.2.4 Forests and climate change adaptation ............................................51 3.3 Overview: Global Deforestation and Forest Degradation.........................51 3.4 Causes of Deforestation and Forest Degradation......................................53 3.4.1 General background.........................................................................53 3.4.2 Economic factors .............................................................................54 3.4.3 Institutional factors..........................................................................56 3.5 Impacts of deforestation............................................................................57 3.5.1 Impacts of deforestation on biodiversity .........................................57 3.5.2 Impacts of deforestation on ecosystem services..............................58 Climate regulation .....................................................................................................58 Water regulation and purification ......................................................................59 Other forest related ecosystem services..........................................................60 3.5.3 Socio-economic impacts of deforestation .......................................61 3.6 Policy approaches and Economic Perspectives on combating deforestation in the future...................................................................................61 3.6.1 Regulatory Instruments ...................................................................62