Sabermetrics “If you challenge the conventional wisdom, you will find ways to do things much better than they are currently done.” Michael Lewis, Moneyball
Masashi Kawabata What is Sabermetrics? Why is it important?
• Study of Baseball; analyzing stats in mathematical approach
• Clearly reflects the player’s abilities in numbers
• Revolutionary Concept, was not implemented until a dozen years ago Who started it? What was the problem?
• Bill James
• “Baseball Abstract”
• Highly unrecognized, fans and scouts criticized his work How did Sabermetrics become widely known?
• Moneyball by Michael Lewis
• End of 2002 season, their best players Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi left for bigger contract
• Athletics needed to win games with limited amount of capital How did the Athletics succeeded?
• Billy Beane and Paul Depodesta
• OBP (On Base Percentage)
• Shows how much the batter gets on base The Equation of On Base Percentage
H = Hits BB = Walks HBP = Hit By Pitch AB = At Bats SF = Sacrifice Flies Example Players in Moneyball
• Scott Hatteberg
• Fired from Red Sox; injured his shoulder as a catcher
• His valuable trait Comparison
Scott Hatteberg Johnny Damon Salary (2002 season) $ 900,000 $ 7,250,000
Average (500 OBP .374 .356 Eleven Years Later… • Evolution of Sabermetrics • PITCH F(x) System • Pros and Cons of advanced Sabermetrics Ending the 20 years Curse • Gap of big/small organization • Three players for 15 million Pirates Key Man • Russell Martin • Pitching Frame • Importance of count • Signed 17 million for 2 years Comparison 2 Catcher Called Total R/120G 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Pitches Runs Russell 42186 71 15 15 10 20 14 11 Martin Yadier 39184 37 8 7 7 1 16 6 Molina Ryan 22861 -66 -26 -9 -3 -16 -36 -1 Doumit Analysis from Previous Graph • Martin had higher saved runs than Molina • Yadier Molina (8x Gold Glover, 4x Platinum Glover) • Martin Helped runs for Yankees, yet his ability was unrecognized Results of 2013 Season • Martin’s work led to Post season • Martin’s true value as a player • Improvement of data analytics My Research • Comparison between Salisbury Knights, Division I/III players and MLB players • See visually how some of our players are similar to professional players. Example 1 – On Base Percentage Player Cooper Auggie Mense Kyle Seager Cheetham Team Crimson Knights Wash U in St. Louis Seattle Mariners Average .273 .288 .278 OBP .373 .448 .359 Example 2 – OPS • OPS = OBP + SLG • Importance of OPS Player Cam Meyer Drew Ellis David Ortiz Team Holy Cross University of Boston Red Louisville Sox OBP .456 .481 .401 SLG .792 .737 .620 OPS 1.248 1.218 1.021 Example 3 – WHIP • WHIP = Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched Player Theo Beau Dallas McDowell Sulser Keuchel Team Crimson Dartmouth Houston Knights Astros Innings 36.2 45 63.2 Hits 19 31 51 Walks 8 5 14 WHIP 0.736 0.80 0.86 Sources • Lewis, M. (2003). Moneyball: The art of winning an unfair game. New York: W.W. Norton. • Sawchik, T. (2016). Big data baseball: math, miracles, and the end of a 20-year losing streak. New York: Flatiron Books. • • Fast, M. (2011, September 24). Spinning Yarn: Removing the Mask Encore Presentation. Retrieved May 24, 2017, from http://www.baseballprospectus.com • • Phillips, E. S. (2016, March 08). Using "Moneyball" statistics to analyze Big West Conference baseball. Retrieved May 24, 2017, from http://mustangnews.net • • MLB Stats, Scores, History, & Records. (n.d.). Retrieved May 24, 2017, from http://www.baseball- reference.com • • Salisbury School | Spring 2017 | Prep Baseball. (n.d.). Retrieved May 24, 2017, from https://gc.com/ • • WashU - Season Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved May 24, 2017, from http://www.washubears.com • • Drew Ellis - 2017 Baseball. (n.d.). Retrieved May 24, 2017, from http://www.gocards.com • • Beau Sulser Bio. (n.d.). Retrieved May 24, 2017, from http://www.dartmouthsports.com