Cheshire East Internal Migration estimates - Origin and destination statistics

The North Staffordshire Local Authorities have queried migration movements between their areas and Cheshire East and the impact the Cheshire East Local Plan may have on these movements. This short note has been prepared to show where the Office for National Statistics estimate migrants to Cheshire East come from and where migrants from Cheshire East move to. The note concentrates on migration to and from Cheshire East neighbouring Authorities and looks at what the impact of the Cheshire East Local Plan is likely to be on these neighbouring Authorities in terms of future numbers of migrants.

There is a useful interactive tool on the ONS website where you can select a Local Authority and see where migration to and from this LA is: http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc25/#00AC,nat,to

The following pages have some screen shots from the ONS interactive tool showing inward, outward and net migration for Cheshire East (2011-2013).

The red dashed lines on the screen shots show where there is a significant level of migration (ONS decided significance based on a method of distribution of values for an area adapted from a method by Holmes and Haggett 1977)

Significant inward migration (2011 to 2013) from: Stockport Manchester Trafford Stoke-on-Trent Newcastle-under-Lyme Cheshire West and Chester

Significant outward migration (2011 to 2013) to: Stockport Manchester Trafford Stoke-on-Trent Newcastle-under-Lyme Cheshire West and Chester

Significant net migration (2011 to 2013): Stockport Manchester Trafford

Cheshire East is bordered by 9 LAs: CWAC Warrington Stockport Manchester Trafford High Peak Staffordshire Moorlands Newcastle-under-Lyme Shropshire Stoke-on-Trent is also classed as a neighbouring authority (and migration estimates for Stoke-on-Trent are included in the tables below), although it does not share a border with Cheshire East.

Based on the latest 5 years of annual migration flow estimates (2009 to 2013) between 39% and 44% of IN migrants come from one of the 10 neighbouring LAs (including Stoke-on-Trent) and between 35% and 38% of OUT migrants move to one of the 10 neighbouring LAs. There is a net gain of people from the neighbouring LAs, which ranges from 440 in 2009 to 1,170 in 2012.

Examples:

Internal Migration estimates (annual flows for year ending June Internal Migration estimates (annual flows for year ending June 2013) 2010)

IN OUT NET IN OUT NET Total 13,640 13,240 400 Total 13,500 12,700 900 Neighbouring LAs only Neighbouring LAs only Warrington 260 240 20 Warrington 200 220 -20 Cheshire West and Chester 1,110 1,220 -110 Cheshire West and Chester 1,240 1,130 110 High Peak 180 170 10 High Peak 220 150 70 Newcastle-under-Lyme 510 530 -20 Newcastle-under-Lyme 490 410 80 Staffordshire Moorlands 340 310 30 Staffordshire Moorlands 250 280 -30 Manchester 1,030 720 310 Manchester 940 670 270 Stockport 1,150 760 390 Stockport 1,000 660 340 Trafford 580 390 190 Trafford 530 330 200 Shropshire 250 300 -50 Shropshire 200 250 -50 Stoke-on-Trent 450 450 0 Stoke-on-Trent 450 390 60

All neighbouring LAs (inc. All neighbouring LAs (inc. Stoke-on-Trent) 5,860 5,090 770 Stoke-on-Trent) 5,520 4,490 1,030 Percentage of total migration to / Percentage of total migration to / from neighbouring LAs 43% 38% from neighbouring LAs 41% 35%

Note: All figures are independently rounded to the nearest 10. Source: Internal Migration Square Matrices years ending 2010 and 2013, Internal Migration Unit, Office for National Statistics, ONS Crown Copyright 2014. Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v.1.0.

Key points

Based on migration estimates 2002 to 2012 around 85% of migration into Cheshire East is internal (within UK) (rather than international). This figure varies considerably year on year, and is higher in recent years (with some years being higher than 100%, representing a net loss through international migration).

The Cheshire East Local Plan preferred development figure of 1,350 dwellings per annum suggests an average net migration gain of 2,000 people per year. Based on the 85% above it would be reasonable to expect at least 1,700pa to be internal migrants.

The average number of net internal migrants between 2002 and 2012 was around 1,200pa. If we assume that 500 extra internal migrants were to move into Cheshire East each year (to make up the 1,700pa net migrants forecast) and that between 39% and 44% of these internal migrants came from one of the 10 neighbouring LAs (as was the case 2009 to 2013), then we could expect up to 220 extra in migrants from the 10 neighbouring LAs (in total) each year (i.e. 44% of the 500 extra migrants).

Based on the internal migration estimates for 2009 to 2013 there was an average of 5,610 internal migrants each year into Cheshire East from neighbouring LAs (out of the total 13,610 average internal migrants each year into Cheshire East). To increase this figure by 220 would imply an increase of around 4% to 5,830.

The following table shows the average number of migrants each year (2009 to 2013) for the North Staffordshire Authorities and shows the impact of a 4% increase in IN migration (and the resulting impact on NET migration). For example, Cheshire East had an average number of 500 people per annum moving in to Cheshire East from Newcastle-under-Lyme ( 2009 and 2013), if this was to increase by 4% (20 people), then we could expect 520 people per annum to move into Cheshire East from Newcastle-under-Lyme. This would impact on the NET gain to Cheshire East (from Newcastle-under-Lyme) which in recent years (2009-2013) has averaged at 40 people per annum. If Cheshire East were to build 1,350 dwellings per annum we could reasonable expect the net gain from Newcastle-under-Lyme to increase to 60 people per annum. We could reasonable expect the impact for the whole of North Staffordshire to be around 50 extra people per annum moving into Cheshire East.

NET pa (inc 4% INpa (2009-2013) OUTpa (2009-2013) NETpa (2009-2013) IN pa + 4% increase increased IN) Newcastle-under- 500 450 40 520 60 Lyme Staffordshire 290 300 0 310 10 Moorlands Stoke-on-Trent 450 410 40 460 60 North Staffordshire 1,240 1,160 80 1,290 130 Note: All figures are independently rounded to the nearest 10.

If we were to assume that all 2,000 net migrants were internal migrants, we would need an extra 800 internal migrants each year, with around 350 coming from neighbouring authorities (44% of 800), i.e. an increase of around 6% on the current (2009 to 2013) level of internal migration from neighbouring LAs i.e. the figure would increase from 5,610 internal migrants each year into Cheshire East from neighbouring authorities to 5,960. The impact of this on North Staffordshire could be expected to be around 70 extra people per annum moving into Cheshire East

The migration estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics include student movements. The published estimates include some information on migration by destination and age (this is more detailed for the most recent years), but do not include the reason for migration and so we cannot directly estimate the numbers of students migrating into and out of Cheshire East (from the ONS internal migration datasets), but can draw conclusions on migrants of (around) student age.

For 2011 to 2013, on average 27% (3,740) of the internal migrants who moved into Cheshire East each year were aged 15-24 and 35% (4,560) of those who moved out each year were in this age group. Each year (2011 to 2013) there was a net loss of people aged 15-24, as more migrated out of Cheshire East than into Cheshire East.

Looking at the last 3 years data (2011 to 2013) there was a net loss of young people aged 161 to 24 to neighbouring LAs which averaged around 90 people per year. This is based on an average of 940 people aged 16 to 24 moving in to Cheshire East (from neighbouring authorities) and 1,020 moving out (to neighbouring authorities) each year.

Looking at the last 3 years data (2011 to 2013), on average around 16% (210) of In migrants to Cheshire East from North Staffordshire are aged 16-24 and 21% (250) of out migrants are aged 16-24. For 2011 to 2013 there was an average net loss of 40 people aged 16 to 24 per annum from Cheshire East to North Staffordshire.

1 Data for 2011 is only available for broad age groups which is why we have quoted the 16-24 age groups in this and following statements. The previous statement used 5 year cohort data and so grouped 15-19s and 20-24s together.