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JSNA: Summary Review 2020 Joint Strategic Needs Assessment Summary Review 2020 JOINT STRATEGIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT - SUMMARY REVIEW 2020 INTRODUCTION Department of Health guidance1 describes the central importance in the modernised health and care system of an enhanced Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA), which should consider all the current and future health and social care needs of the area. The local authority and CCG should be guided by the JSNA when developing their Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy. This document presents many of the key messages from Blackburn with Darwen's JSNA. It begins with a profile of the borough's population and local economy ('Setting the Scene'), and is then arranged under the same three themes as the borough's Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy itself: 'Start Well', 'Live Well' and 'Age Well'. CONTENTS (Ctrl+Click to go to page) NEETs ..................................................... 17 CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE •.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.• 32 INTRODUCTION 1 SPECIAL EDUCATIONAL NEEDS AND DISABILITY •••••••••••••• 17 DIABETES .•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.••.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.• 33 CONTENT ACES ....................................................... 17 MENTAL HEALTH AND WELLBEING ...........................34 SETTING THE SCENE 2 CHILDREN'S MENTAL HEALTH SERVICE (CAMHS) 18 SEXUAL HEALTH............................................. 36 YOUNG PEOPLE'S SEXUAL HEALTH 18 LIVER DISEASE •.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•..•.•.•.•.•.•.•36 POPULATION 2 TEENAGE PREGNANCY ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 18 POPULATION ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS ...................2 HEARING Loss •.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•..•.•.•.•.•.•.•37 CHLAMYDIA SCREENING ...................................... 18 DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS .............................3 ROAD SAFETY ...............................................38 CHILDREN'S ORAL HEALTH 19 DEPRIVATION •.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.• 5 LEARNING DISABILITIES 39 CHILD OBESITY AND UNDERWEIGHT 19 LIFE EXPECTANCY •.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.• 6 VETERANS 40 ROAD ACCIDENTS 21 HOMELES AND VULNERABLE PEOPLE 41 PREMATURE MORTALITY ......................................6 CHILDREN KILLED OR SERIOUSLY INJURED (KSI) ••••••••••••• 21 HOMELESSNESS •.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•..•.•.•.•.•.•.•41 LOCAL ECONOMY 7 ALL CHILD ROAD CASUALTIES ................................ 21 ASYLUM SEEKERS AND REFUGEES .•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•42 SKILLS ........................................................7 CHILD HEALTH OUTCOME 22 ECONOVlC ACTIVITY .•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.••••••• 7 AT DELIVERY ••••.•..••••.•..•.••.•..•.••••..•.•••••••••••••• 22 AGE WELL 43 lPLOYMENT BY SECTOR •.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.• 9 INFANT AND CHILD MORTALITY .............................. 22 ISSUE PARTICULARLY AFFECTING OLDER PEOPLE 43 EARNINGS ....................................................9 HOSPITAL ACWISSION/ ATTENDANCE ........................ 22 TRIPS AND FALLS •.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•..•.•.•.•.•.•43 HOUSEHOLD INCOVE ........................................ 10 CHILD VACCINATIONS 23 DEMENTIA .•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.••.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.• 44 SAFE AND HEALTHY HOME AND NEIGHBOURHOODS 11 COVERAGE RATES ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 23 RECORDED DIAGNOSES .•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.• 44 Al R QUALITY • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . .. .. • • .. .. • 11 REASONS FOR NATIONAL DECLINE ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 23 QUALITY AND LENGTH OF LIFE 45 HOUSING •.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.• 12 HEALTHY LIFE EXPECTANCY ..................................45 LIVE WELL 24 CRIME AND VIOLENCE •.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.• 13 END OF LIFE 46 LIFETYLE FACTORS 24 CAUSE OF DEA TH ............................................ 46 START WELL 14 PHYSICAL ACTIVITY ......................................... 24 ICONS 47 DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH FOR CHILDRENIYOUNG PEOPLE14 ALCOHOL ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 25 REFERENCES 47 CHILD POVERTY •.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.• 14 GAMBLING .................................................. 26 IF YOU HAVE ANY QURIES OR COMMENTS, PLEASE CONT ACT EDUCATION •.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.• 14 SMOKING .................................................... 26 ANNE CUNNINGHAM, VULNERABLE CHILDREN AND YOUNG PEOPLE 17 DRUG MISUSE •••.•.•••••.•..••••••..•.•••••.•.•••••••••••••• 27 PUBLIC HEALTH INTELLIGENCE SPECIALIST: CHILDREN IN NEED .•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.• 17 HEALTH OUTCOMES 30 (anne [email protected]) 'TOXIC TRIO' OF FAMILY ISSUES ............................ 17 CANCER••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 30 CONTENTS JOINT STRATEGIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT - SUMMARY REVIEW 2020 SETTING THE SCENE POPULATION POPULATION ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS Mid-2018 estimate2 Population projections3 The latest ONS population estimates are for mid-2018, and show that Blackburn The latest population projections from ONS are still based on the population estimates with Darwen had a total of 148,942 residents (an increase of 170 since mid-2017). for mid-2016, and look ahead to 2041. For Blackburn with Darwen overall, they predict In Figure 1 below, the England age structure is superimposed for comparison. This a slow, almost imperceptible fall in population (Figure 2). However, the 65+ age-group illustrates that Blackburn with Darwen has a much younger age profile than (shown in green) is expected to rise by approximately 8,300 over the period - ie. by average. 28.4% of its population is aged under 20, which is the 6th highest almost 40%. The 85+ group in particular is projected to rise by over 80%, from proportion in England. approximately 2400 to 4400. Figure 1 - ONS mid-2018 population estimate for Blackburn with Daren (with England profle for comparson) Figure 2 - 2016-based ONS population projections, Blackburn with Darwen 90+· 247- 160 85-89· M F 80-84· ■9o+ 75-79 140 ■85-89 70-74· ■80-84 65-69 120 75-79 60-64· 70-74 65-69 55-59· 100 ■60-64 50-54 ■ 55-59 45-49· 80 ■50-54 40-44 ■ 45-49 35-39· 60 40-44 30-34 ■ 35-39 25-29· 40 30-34 20-24· ■ 25-29 15-19 ■20-24 20 10-14· ■15-19 5-9 ■10-14 0-4 0 ,.._ 00 a, 0 ... 5-9 r,") r,") r,") 0 0 0"'" 0 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 N N N N N 0-4 SETTING THE SCENE 2 JOINT STRATEGIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT - SUMMARY REVIEW 2020 DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Ethnicity Figure 3 - Ethnicity: Blackburn withDarwen v. NW and England, 2011 (showingcounts for BwD) --.... The 2011 Census is still the most recent Ethnic Group Count source of official statistics on the ethnic C Other o.s% 1 QI Other 1230 breakdown of the borough's population, Black 0.6% Black 933 and the relationship between ethnic � Oter Asian 1.1% Other Asian 1656 group and other social characteristics. .c Chinese .t:: 0.5% I Chinese 721 The proportion of Blackburn with Darwen , Bangladeshi I Bangladeshi 1.0% 1525 residents who described themselves as C Pakistani ... ■flEIIII Pakistani 17801 th :::, Indian Indian or Pakistani were the 11 highest ..:.:.0 ■llta Indian 19791 th u Mixed 1.2% and the 6 highest respectively of any ro I Mixed 1823 White White 102009 local authority in England (Figure 3 ). TOTAL 147489 North West The Census also showed that the main England ethnic groups had markedly different age Source: Table KS201EW profiles from each other (Figure 4 ): 0% 20% 40 60% 80% 100% 85+ Since the Census, various bodies have attempted to produce more up-to-date Figure 4 M F F estimates of the ethnic breakdown of the borough. One of these is the Consumer Age profles Data Research Centre (CDRC) at UCL. Their 'Ethnicity Estimator' works by applying by ethnic group, 4 name-matching software to the Electoral Register and consumer data (Figure 5): Blackurn with Indian Darwen, 2011 Figure 5 - CDRC estimates of 0- Pakstani and Indian population, Blackurn with Darwen, 85+ F F 2016 (LOA level)4 M Over 3% 20-30% 10-20%..... 3-5% 2-3% All other groups 1-2% 0- 0-1% None 3 SETTING THE SCENE JOINT STRATEGIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT - SUMMARY REVIEW C ... Q.O 2020 Religion C: ...."' ... White Ill � At the 2011 Census, 77,599 Blackburn with Darwen residents (52.6%) identified themselves as Christian, and =s :i2 0 C: "' 39,817 (27.0%) as Muslim. 13.8% had no religion, and 5.6% did not answer the question. Religion and Q. <( ethnicity are closely interlinked, with the vast majority of Christians in the borough being White, and almost all Muslims being Indian, Pakistani or members of other minority ethnic groups (Figure 6 ). Figure 6 - relationship between ethnicity and religion in Blackburn with Darwen Language For the first time, the 2011 Census asked about the 'main language' of everybody aged 3 or above. Over 86% of Blackburn with Darwen residents had English as their main language, Figure 7 - but a multitude of Main language of other languages Blackburn with were also represented: 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Out of 57,353 households in Blackburn with Darwen, there were just over 4,000 where nobody had English as their main language, and just over 800 more where only children did: Households where some Figure 8 - Main but not all aged 16+ have language by English as main language • household • Households where only child(ren) under 16 have ••· • English as main language Households where nobody has English as main language • · However, it is important to appreciate that many of those with a main language other than English nevertheless speak English 'well' or 'very well'. Only 973 people in the borough could not speak it at all. SETTING
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