Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Public Disclosure Authorized Report No: ICR00004635

IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT

IDA-53740

ON A

CREDIT

IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR (42.3) MILLION

(US$65 MILLION EQUIVALENT) Public Disclosure Authorized TO THE

THE REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR

FOR A

MADAGASCAR EMERGENCY FOOD SECURITY AND SOCIAL PROTECTION PROJECT (P147514)

December 17, 2018 Public Disclosure Authorized

Agriculture Global Practice Africa Region Public Disclosure Authorized

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(Exchange Rate Effective December 17, 2018)

Currency Unit = Malagasy Ariary (MGA) MGA 3,560 = US$1 US$1.38269 = SDR 1

FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ATOP Technical Assistant for the Operations (Assistance Technique des Opérations) BNGRC National Bureau of Disaster Risk Management Irrigation and Watershed Management Project (Projet Bassins Versants et Périmètres BVPI/IDA Irrigués) CCT Conditional Cash Transfer CFW Cash-for-work CPF Country Partnership Framework Disaster Prevention and Management Unit (Cellule de Prévention et Gestion des CPGU Urgences) CPPA Multiyear Planning Contract (Contrat Plan Pluriannuel) Directorate of Programming and Monitoring Evaluation (Direction de la Programmation DPSE et du Suivi Evaluation) Regional Directorate of Agriculture and Livestock (Direction Régionale de l’agriculture et DRAE l’élevage) Regional Directorate for Rural Development (Direction Régionale du Développement DRDR Rural) EFA Economic and Financial Analysis ERR Economic Rate of Return EU European Union FID Intervention Fund for Development (Fonds d’Intervention pour le Développement) FM Financial Management FS Livelihood Development Cash Grant (Fonds de Soutien) GEF Global Environment Facility GoM Government of Madagascar GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report IE Impact Evaluation IFVM Anti-locust invasions Center (Centre de lutte antiacridienne de Madagascar) IRR Internal Rate of Return ISM Implementation Support Mission ISN Interim Strategy Note ISR Implementation Status and Results Report M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MAPER Upfront Contribution Considered Realistic (Montant d’Apport Préalable Estimé Réaliste) MFB Ministry of Finance and Budget MIS Management Information System MoAL Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock MPAE Ministry of the Presidency for Agriculture and Livestock Anti-flooding Norms for Hydroagricultural Infrastructure (les normes malgaches de NIHYCRI construction des infrastructures hydroagricoles contre les crues et inondations) NPV Net Present Value O&M Operation and Maintenance ONN National Nutrition Office (Office National de Nurtrition) PAD Project Appraisal Document PAGS Sub-Watershed Management Plans (Plans d’Aménagement et de Gestion Simplifiée) PDO Project Development Objective PHRD Policy and Human Resources Development PIU Project Implementation Unit PMT Proxy Means Test National Program for Irrigated Perimeters and Watersheds (Programme National PNBVPI Bassins Versants Perimetres Irrigues) PNDR National Policy for Rural Development (Programme National de Développement Rural) PO Producer Organization PPR Post Procurement Review Emergency Infrastructure Preservation and Vulnerability Reduction (Projet d’Urgence PUPIRV pour la Préservation des Infrastructures et la Réduction de la Vulnérabilité) Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (Projet d’Urgence pour la PURSAPS Sécurité Alimentaire et la Protection Sociale) National Strategy for the Development of Rice (Stratégie Nationale du Développement SNDR Rizicole) TA Technical Assistance UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund WOP Without Project WP With Project WUA Water User Association

Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem

Country Director: Mark R. Lundell

Senior Global Practice Director: Juergen Voegele

Practice Manager: Dina Umali-Deininger

Task Team Leader(s): Giuseppe Fantozzi, Andrea Vermehren

ICR Main Author: Ghada Elabed

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DATA SHEET ...... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ...... 5 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL ...... 5 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE ...... 9 II. OUTCOME ...... 11 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ...... 11 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...... 11 C. EFFICIENCY ...... 17 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING ...... 18 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ...... 19 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ...... 20 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ...... 20 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ...... 22 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 23 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ...... 23 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE...... 24 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ...... 26 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ...... 27 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 29 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ...... 30 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ...... 40 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ...... 42 ANNEX 4. KEY TABLES ...... 43 ANNEX 5. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ...... 48 ANNEX 6. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 57 ANNEX 7. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) ...... 60 ANNEX 8. TERRACING ACTIVITIES ...... 62 ANNEX 10. SYNERGIES BETWEEN THE ACTIVITIES OF COMPONENTS A AND B ...... 66 The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

DATA SHEET

BASIC INFORMATION

Product Information Project ID Project Name

Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social P147514 Protection Project

Country Financing Instrument

Madagascar Investment Project Financing

Original EA Category Revised EA Category

Organizations

Borrower Implementing Agency

Bureau National, Bassins Versants Perimetres Irrigues, The Republic of Madagascar FONDS D'INTERVENTION POUR LE DEVELOPPEMENT

Project Development Objective (PDO)

Original PDO Project's development objective is to strengthen the Recipient’s immediate capacity to respond effectively to the food security andlocust crises, by: (i) increasing agricultural production capacity in Project Areas, while enabling extremely poor households, in the Project Areas, to access cash transfers and cash for work activities; and (ii) improving the Recipient’s capacity to respond promptly and efficiently to an Eligible Crisis or Emergency.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

FINANCING

Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing

65,000,000 65,000,000 59,107,607 IDA-53740 Total 65,000,000 65,000,000 59,107,607

Non-World Bank Financing Borrower/Recipient 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Total Project Cost 65,000,000 65,000,000 59,107,607

KEY DATES

Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 27-Feb-2014 15-Sep-2014 29-Nov-2016 28-Feb-2018 30-Jun-2018

RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING

Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 07-Jun-2016 18.06 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Reallocation between Disbursement Categories 16-May-2017 35.48 Change in Results Framework Reallocation between Disbursement Categories 12-Jul-2017 39.33 Reallocation between Disbursement Categories 20-Feb-2018 59.11 Change in Loan Closing Date(s)

KEY RATINGS

Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs

Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 15-Jun-2014 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0

02 06-Jan-2015 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 8.17

03 25-Jun-2015 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 9.08

04 31-Dec-2015 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 14.46 Moderately 05 22-Apr-2016 Moderately Unsatisfactory 16.97 Unsatisfactory Moderately 06 08-Nov-2016 Moderately Unsatisfactory 26.17 Unsatisfactory 07 28-Dec-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 28.97

08 25-Apr-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 34.56

09 06-Sep-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 43.09

10 18-May-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 59.11

11 26-Jun-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 59.11

SECTORS AND THEMES

Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%)

Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry 80 Agricultural Extension, Research, and Other Support 35 Activities Irrigation and Drainage 40 Forestry 5

Social Protection 20 Social Protection 20

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Finance 16

Finance for Development 16

Disaster Risk Finance 3

Agriculture Finance 13

Social Development and Protection 20

Social Protection 20

Social Safety Nets 20

Urban and Rural Development 67

Rural Development 58

Rural Markets 13

Rural Infrastructure and service delivery 45

Disaster Risk Management 9

Disaster Response and Recovery 3

Disaster Risk Reduction 3

Disaster Preparedness 3

ADM STAFF

Role At Approval At ICR

Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Hafez M. H. Ghanem

Country Director: Haleh Z. Bridi Mark R. Lundell

Senior Global Practice Director: Jamal Saghir Juergen Voegele

Practice Manager: Severin L. Kodderitzsch Dina Umali-Deininger Giuseppe Fantozzi, Andrea Task Team Leader(s): Ziva Razafintsalama Vermehren ICR Contributing Author: Ghada Elabed

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Country and Sector Context 1. At appraisal, Madagascar had one of the highest poverty rates in the world and poverty levels were exacerbated by the political crisis of 2009. The political crisis has placed the country under OP/BP 7.30 (Dealing with De Facto Governments). More than five years into the crisis, growth has slowed, the human capital base has eroded, and governance systems have deteriorated markedly. Poverty levels were high: in June 2013, an estimated 90 percent of the population—approximately 19 million people—lived on less than US$2 per day. Food insecurity affected approximately 20 percent (some 4 million people) of Madagascar’s population of 21 million. 2. The economy was largely rural and agricultural, dominated by traditional low productivity rice production systems. Agriculture was and is still the foundation of the economy, contributing about 29 percent of the total gross domestic product and about the same percentage of total exports. Rice was the main staple crop as it was grown by about 85 percent of agricultural households. The area planted with rice was estimated at about 1.60 million ha, of which about 1.34 million ha was irrigated rice. Paddy yields were low by global standards because of outdated production technology, inefficient use of land and water resources, and lack of appropriate institutions to ensure sustainability. In addition, most producers did not own titles for their land, which created disincentive to invest in productivity enhancing technologies. 3. Madagascar’s agriculture, which is already highly exposed to weather-related shocks was severely affected by a locust invasion at the time of appraisal. Madagascar is highly exposed, and vulnerable, to weather-related and other natural shocks. Between 1968 and 2016, Madagascar has been affected by 77 natural disasters, including 54 storms, eight droughts, and seven floods, as well as six epidemics and two insect infestations. These have caused economic damages of over US$2.3 billion and affected more than 17 million people. Madagascar is also highly exposed to cyclones, with an average of three to four cyclones affecting it every year. Repeated exposure to weather-related shocks have contributed to decreased food security and deteriorated irrigation infrastructure. The devastating impacts of weather-related shocks were compounded by a locust crisis that took place in April 2012 and threatened the livelihoods of 13 million people. 4. The vulnerability of Malagasy households to weather-related shocks and locust invasions was compounded by their lack of access to social safety nets. Social safety net expenditures decreased alarmingly following the 2009 crisis. The remaining safety net programs (mostly supported by international organizations) have provided short-term support to a limited number of households but was not enough to counter a crisis as wide and deep as the crisis that was experienced in Madagascar at appraisal. 5. The cumulative effects of weakened governance, high exposure to weather-related shocks and locust invasions, and a lack of safety nets, created a food security crisis and pushed the Malagasy population deeper into poverty and inability to cope with exogenous shocks. As a response to this crisis, the World Bank prepared the multisectoral Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (Projet d’Urgence pour la Sécurité Alimentaire et la Protection Sociale, PURSAPS) (the project, hereafter) as an emergency operation, in a short period of time, in accordance with OP 10.00, paragraph 11. Rational for Bank Support at Appraisal and Higher-level Objectives to which the Project Contributes

6. The project areas had not received development assistance and were experiencing a financing shortfall. The activities financed under the project intended to complement interventions that were supported or proposed by other development partners in and around the targeted areas. For example, support for agriculture from the European Union (EU) and African Development Bank was concentrated in poor regions in the far southern and southwestern Madagascar. Similarly, many humanitarian activities focused on southern and eastern Madagascar.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

7. The World Bank had a demonstrated record of delivering results in the activities envisaged under the project, had the knowledge required to plan effective multisectoral interventions, and benefited from established implementation capacity. In the agricultural sector, the World Bank has financed successful rural development projects that are the centerpiece of the national agricultural development strategy. The Rural Development Support Project (Projet de Soutien au Développement Rural) demonstrated an effective approach for delivering agricultural services to vulnerable groups in remote rural areas. The Irrigation and Watershed Management Project (Projet Bassins Versants et Périmètres Irrigués, BVPI/IDA) had catalyzed productivity increases and built technical and institutional capacity that could contribute to the project. In social protection, community development and cash-for-work (CFW) activities, pioneered by IDA through the Intervention Fund for Development (Fonds d’Intervention pour le Développement, FID), had significantly increased basic social infrastructure and incomes of extreme poor communities in target groups. 8. The project was expected to contribute to several higher-level objectives outlined in the two-year Interim Strategy Note (ISN) for Madagascar, which was prepared because of the continued application of OP/BP 7.30 to Madagascar. The ISN identifies education, health, nutrition, and the impact of external shocks on the poor (such as food crises and natural disasters requiring disaster rehabilitation/repairs, safety nets, and agricultural support) as key initial focus areas for FY13 operations. All these objectives are relevant to the project. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 9. The theory of change underlying the project was that reducing poverty and increasing resilience to future shocks through continued agricultural development, social safety nets, and better early warning for disasters could take place through three main channels. The first channel aims at increasing the productive capacity of smallholder farmers who are critical producers of surplus food. This would take place by promoting improved rice production practices, sustainable watershed management, and rehabilitating irrigation infrastructure. Several related issues are also required to achieve this goal, including strengthening the capacity of water user associations (WUAs) and producer organizations (POs) and securing land tenure (which would encourage productivity enhancing investments). To promote the sustainability of these achievements in the face of weather-related shocks, the project would strengthen the Early Warning System, increase the resilience of agricultural infrastructure, and support anti-locust efforts. The second channel is providing a safety net for the extremely poor (through CFW and conditional cash transfers [CCTs]), which would decrease their vulnerability and prevent them from falling into poverty traps. The third channel is increasing the recipient’s ability to respond to a future eligible shock (see figure 1).

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Figure 1. Theory of Change of the PURSAPS

10. The critical assumptions underlying the theory of change are the following: (a) training and technical assistance (TA) duration and content are sufficient to lead to the adoption of new practices; (b) farmers will demand rice intensification and nutrition-enhancing subprojects; (c) to the extent possible, extension services will be available to support farmers after the project; (d) all the WUAs with rehabilitated irrigation infrastructure will have the capacity to manage irrigation systems and provide maintenance to the system by the end of the project; (e) the WUA members are engaged through rehabilitation and beyond; (f) beneficiaries have enough capacity to continue the activities of the watershed management component after the project; (g) agencies in charge of the locust control and Early Warning Systems have enough operational capacity after project closure to conduct their respective missions; (h) smallholders will demand land certificates and perceive their values; (i) the social safety net programs (CFW and CCT) are successful at targeting the most vulnerable households, provide valuable community infrastructure, and protect human capital; and (j) increases in farmers’ rice productivity will lead to increases in farmers’ incomes and decreases in poverty.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 11. The PDO as stated in the Project Appraisal Document (PAD) was to ‘to strengthen the recipient’s immediate capacity to respond effectively to the food security and locust crises, by: (a) increasing agricultural production capacity in Project Areas, while enabling extremely poor households, in the Project Areas, to access cash transfers and cash for work activities and (b) improving the recipient’s capacity to respond promptly and efficiently to an Eligible Crisis or Emergency.’ Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 12. The PAD states the following key expected results: (a) increased productive capacity in project areas; (b) access of extremely poor families to social safety nets (CFW and CCT) in the project areas to protect them from food insecurity; and (c) improved recipient’s capacity to respond promptly and efficiently to an eligible crisis or emergency. These results were to be measured by the following indicators: PDO Indicator 1 for expected outcome (a) Area provided with irrigation and drainage services (measured in hectares); PDO Indicator 2 for expected outcome (b) Number of beneficiaries of safety net programs in project areas, 50 percent of whom are female; and PDO Indicator 3: Direct project beneficiaries, 50 percent of whom are female (measured in number). The project included eight intermediate results indicators which are presented in table 4.1, annex 4. Components 13. The original project had four components (A–D). A description of each component and the achieved outputs can be seen in figure 1. Component A: Restoring and Maintaining Essential Agricultural Productive Capacity (Appraisal: US$39 million; closing: US$35.44 million). This component was implemented by the BVPI, and it had two subcomponents: • Subcomponent A.1: Rapid delivery of agricultural services and rehabilitation of essential irrigation and market access infrastructure. This subcomponent sought to improve food productivity and production both in areas affected by locusts and in the highly productive breadbasket zones. It covered three activities: (a) emergency distribution of improved seed, fertilizer, tools, and associated TA, including the promotion of nutrition-enhancing crops; (b) the rehabilitation and maintenance of small-scale agricultural infrastructure, complemented by capacity strengthening for the POs and WUAs; and (c) institutional capacity building to enable the recipient’s locust control unit (Centre National Antiacridien; CNA) to carry out its mission more efficiently (diagnostic and implementation of CNA’s reform). • Subcomponent A.2: Protecting infrastructure investments by improving watershed and land management and climate resilience. This subcomponent supported three main activities: o Supporting erosion control efforts in Project Area 1 by (a) financing a cash-for-trees approach to incentivize the reforestation of the watersheds surrounding the irrigated areas by smallholder farmers and (b) financing a CFW operation to support erosion control works. o Supporting the independent national Land Observatory and land offices at the municipal level—Communal Land Offices (Guichets Fonciers)—to facilitate rapid and low-cost transfer of legal land rights to farming households. o Supporting the expansion of national Early Warning Systems for cyclones and floods, as well as the development of basic, climate-resilient infrastructure for agriculture in project zones. 14. Component B: Providing a Social Safety Net for the Poor (Appraisal: US$17.2 million; closing: US$14.94). This component, implemented by the FID, sought to provide a basic safety net to the poorest families in selected project areas through three main activities: (a) CFW activities sought to provide selected extremely poor households with temporary employment of up to 45 days per year; (b) CCT sought to provide particularly vulnerable groups with bimonthly cash transfers conditional on the use of health, nutrition, and/or other locally available services; and (c) TA to the FID to establish a beneficiary registry, enhance payment modalities, and support third-party monitoring (for example, through operational audits) and impact evaluation (IE).

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15. Component C: Contingency Emergency Fund (Appraisal and closing: US$0 million). This component establishes a disaster recovery contingency fund that could be triggered in the event of a natural disaster through formal declaration of a national or regional state of emergency, or upon a formal request from the Government of Madagascar (GoM) in the wake of a disaster. This component would be managed either by the BVPI or FID, depending on the nature of the disaster response to be implemented. 16. Component D: Project Management (Appraisal: US$8.8 million; closing: US$9.04 million). The project targeted beneficiaries located in two different geographic areas: (a) zone 1 comprises regions affected by locusts and weather- related disasters and ranked among the poorest in the country (Amoron’i Mania, Bongolava, Haute Matsiatra, Ihorombe, Menabe, and Vakinankaratra) and (b) Zone 2 comprises drought-affected breadbaskets that suffered damages because of flooding and droughts (Alaotra, Boeny, Itasy, and Sava). B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) 17. Changes to the project were captured in three Level 2 restructurings and one extension of the closing date. The first Level 2 restructuring (June 2016) intended to expand and accelerate the implementation of the Government’s response to floods and cyclones (2015) which damaged the irrigation infrastructure and a drought which caused severe crop losses and a famine in southern Madagascar (2015–2016). The main changes introduced by the restructuring are (a) a reallocation of US$6.31 million equivalent among disbursement categories 1b, 2a, 2b, and 2c to scale up the rehabilitation and maintenance of small-scale dams and irrigation schemes in 19 regions of the country; expand the project irrigated areas; and cover the associated increase in project management costs and (b) a modification of the Results Framework as described in table 1, annex 4. Nonperforming activities such as the pilot cash-for-trees program, which had yet to be launched, were eliminated and low-performing activities such as the land titling related-activities were reduced significantly to provide the needed resources. 18. The second Level 2 restructuring (May 2017) responded to a request from the GoM to reallocate SDR equivalent of 737,000 specifically of which SDR 192,000 from watershed management activities and SDR 545,000 from rice intensification activities to provide additional resources for the rehabilitation of the additional irrigation schemes. The aim of the restructuring was to optimize the impact of the remaining funds while responding to increasing needs for the rehabilitation of irrigated perimeters following several weather-related disasters over the past 24 months (for example, Chedza cyclone in mid-2015, drought in central area in late 2016, and Enawo cyclone in early 2017). Given the proposed reallocation of the project proceeds, the Results Framework was modified as described in table 1, annex 4. 19. The third Level 2 restructuring (July 2017) was solely a reallocation of funds to provide additional resources under the CFW program. To ensure sufficient funds are available to disburse for the completed activities under expenditure category 1d (cash transfers under Part B[a] of the project), the GoM has requested a reallocation of SDR 332,508 (US$447,000 equivalent) from expenditure category 1 (c) CFW under Part B (a) of the project to category 1(d). 20. Following the different restructurings, two additional project areas were added. They are: (a) Emergency Project for the Preservation of Infrastructures and the Reduction of Vulnerability (Projet d’Urgence pour la Préservation des Infrastructures et la Réduction de la Vulnérabilité, PUPIRV) zones, which are zones remaining from the PUPIRV (Analamanga, Itasy, Bongolava, Atsinanana, Sofia, Betsiboka, and Vatovavy Fitovinany; and (b) Cyclone damaged zones, which contain the perimeters affected by the cyclones of 2016 and 2017 (Androy, Anosy, Atsimo Atsinanana, and Analanjirofo). 21. Extension of the closing date by four months from February 28, 2018, to June 30, 2018. The project was again affected by weather disasters in November and December 2017 and January 2018 (Cyclone Ava). These weather disasters caused delays in the completion of several contracts related to the rehabilitation of irrigation schemes in selected project areas and required the preparation of amendments for some contracts for repairing cyclone damages in other irrigation schemes. Therefore, the GoM requested an extension of the closing date.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 22. The PDO was not revised during project implementation, but the first two Level 2 restructurings included several revisions to the outcome targets, which are detailed in table 1 and annex 9. Revised PDO Indicators 23. One PDO indicator underwent a slight modification after the first restructuring. The word ‘improved’ has been added to the PDO-level indicator 1 areas to include qualitative measurement of the indicator. The other restructurings did not introduce changes to the PDO indicator. Revised Components 24. As described earlier, the fundamental design and implementation arrangements for the project components did not change during the implementation period; however, adjustments were made to the scale of the activities to accommodate the reallocation of funding toward greater investment in the irrigation rehabilitation activities. Reallocation of additional resources to Subcomponent A.1 were significant as shown in table 1. More details on the different reallocations can be found in annex 9. Table 1. Revised Components Components Appraisal Post Restructuring Actual at Closing Percentage of (US$, millions) (US$, millions) (US$, millions) Appraisal (%) A. Restoring and Maintaining Essential Agricultural 39.0 35.61 35.63 91.4 Productive Capacity • A.1. Rapid delivery of agricultural services and 29.0 30.76 30.80 106.2 rehabilitation of essential irrigation and market access infrastructure • A.2. Protecting infrastructure investments by 10.0 4.85 4.83 48.3 improving watershed and land management and climate resilience B. Providing a Social Safety Net for the Poor 17.2 13.77 14.51 84.4 C. Contingency Emergency Fund 0.0 0.00 0.00 — D. Project Management 8.8 10.10 8.96 101.9 Total 65.0 59.48a 59.11 90.9 Note: a. The U.S. dollar depreciated compared to the SDR, which reduced the value of the credit to US$59.48 million.

Other Changes 25. There were no other changes. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change 26. The primary reason for the three restructurings and extension of closing date was to respond to an emergency triggered by a series of weather shocks that affected the project areas. To accelerate the pace of project implementation and optimize the impact of remaining funds while responding to the new weather-related disasters, the World Bank approved three project restructurings which (a) reallocated funds to expand some of the activities where there has been greater needs because of weather-related disasters over the past two years and that had been performing well (for example, irrigation rehabilitation and watershed management), (b) re-scoped activities to focus not only on those that could be achieved within the remaining project time frame but also on those that would help achieve the project objective, and (c) adjusted the end-of-project results targets to align with the project activities and change in scope. The changes did not have any implication on the original theory of change because the activities remained unchanged.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

II. OUTCOME

A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Relevance Rating of PDO: High

27. The PDO was and remains highly relevant to the GoM. First, this is because of its focus on expanding the agriculture production capacity in agriculture, a key sector in Madagascar as described in the context section. Second, most of the activities of Component A focus on improving the productivity and production of rice, a vital commodity in the Malagasy diet. Low productivity levels of rice in Madagascar are caused by (a) irrigation schemes being mostly far from fully operational, with high sedimentation levels and lack of maintenance, which limit smallholders’ access to water and (b) lack of access to critical inputs, mainly seeds and fertilizers. The project’s integrated approach, including agricultural intensification, and strengthened capacity of the WUAs in the irrigation perimeters, as well as sustainable land management activities in the watershed areas to increase rice productivity are therefore highly relevant. Third, the PDO is relevant because of the social protection activities. At appraisal, about one-third of the population in Madagascar, representing about 7 million people, was extremely poor and deprived in multiple ways. The recent locust and drought crises, and continued land tenure insecurity, have caused many more households to fall into extreme poverty, including households in rural communities that until recently were relatively resilient and supplying surplus food to the major urban areas. Finally, the PDO is still relevant because of its focus on building resilience to weather-related shocks. Madagascar is highly exposed and vulnerable to weather-related and other natural shocks as described in the context section. 28. Similarly, the PDO continues to be aligned with the Agriculture and Social Protection policies of the GoM and remains relevant and aligned with the FY17–FY21 Country Partnership Framework (CPF). Madagascar has the vision of becoming a rice granary for Sub-Saharan Africa by 2020. This is outlined in the National Strategy for the Development of Rice (Stratégie Nationale du Développement Rizicole, SNDR), 2016–2020, adopted in early 2017. By focusing on increasing agriculture (and rice) production capacity, the project’s objectives are fully aligned with the GoM objectives. Similarly, the PDO directly supports the current CPF Objective 7, which seeks to strengthen rural productivity through increased productivity, access to improved inputs, and infrastructure improvement (among other actions). It also supports the CPF Objectives 1 and 2 to strengthen children’s human development and enhance resilience of livelihoods of vulnerable households in rural and urban areas. The project also supports the National Development Plan for 2015–2019. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Efficacy of PDO: Substantial

29. The degree to which the PDO is achieved is based on assessment of the two main interrelated objectives articulated in the project design and detailed in the theory of change – (a) increasing agricultural production capacity in project areas and (b) enabling extremely poor households in the project areas to access cash transfers and CFW activities. Each of these objectives is assessed separately using information collected from the project’s documents and the findings of the project’s extensive monitoring and evaluation (M&E) efforts. Key evaluation reports and the methodologies that they used are listed in annex 11. The third PDO objective, improving the recipient’s capacity to respond promptly and efficiently to an eligible crisis or emergency, is not evaluated in this Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) because the corresponding component (Component C, Contingency Emergency Fund) was not triggered. Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome Objective (i): increased agricultural production capacity

30. To achieve this objective, the project focused on rice, the key crop in Madagascar, and adopted the BVPI approach, which recognizes that improving rice productivity in irrigated perimeters requires an integrated approach consisting in simultaneously improving the irrigation infrastructure, promoting rice intensification activities, while

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

protecting the watersheds. The project also supported land tenure activities to incentivize further investments in rice intensification activities as well as in the watersheds. Improved Irrigation

31. Project investments in critical small-scale irrigation infrastructure successfully increased land irrigation coverage, and the PDO related to irrigation was achieved substantially. A total of 51,199 ha (from a baseline of 12,000 ha) benefited from improved irrigation and drainage services, which is 46.1. percentage points higher than the revised target (35,050 ha). In addition, the rehabilitated areas covered 55 percent of the perimeter areas (command area). These areas were rehabilitated through 250 subprojects implemented by 47,647 beneficiaries, 25 percent of which were female (see table 4.2, annex 4). The areas covered 230 irrigation perimeters, including 123 perimeters that suffered cyclonic damages and that were rehabilitated owing to the different restructuring of the project. 32. An independent IE confirmed that water availability improved among project beneficiaries owing to the rehabilitation works: Nearly 72.16 percent of the beneficiaries were satisfied with drainage and irrigation conditions in their plots compared to only 29.88 percent of the non-beneficiaries. In addition, the number of days required to enter water to the rice plots deceased from 4.7 days to 1.8 days among the beneficiaries. With improved water availability, some beneficiaries declared growing rice twice a year from a baseline of once a year. As a final confirmation of the improvement in the quality of water management, the IE shows that beneficiaries were highly satisfied with water availability: 81.44 percent as opposed to satisfaction rate of 59.47 percent among non-beneficiaries. 33. The project also laid the foundations for sustainable management of irrigation infrastructure through the following activities: (a) institutional, organizational, and technical support to 145 WUAs and 10 federations of WUAs; (b) support for the establishment and implementation of 30 Multiyear Planning Contract (Contrat Plan Pluriannuel, CPPA1) for the WUAs located in Zone 2;2 and (c) collection of the contributions by the WUAs located in Zone 2. Two types of contributions were collected (a) Upfront Contribution Considered Realistic (Montant d’Apport Préalable Estimé Réaliste, MAPER); US$78,957 collected by the end of the project, a contribution provided before the implementation of the rehabilitation works and (b) operation and maintenance (O&M) fees of the perimeter as well as the functioning of the WUAs; the in-cash value was $US9,611.3 34. The IE showed that the governance of water and irrigation infrastructure improved, and the sustainability of this result is very likely. About 91 percent of the interviewed beneficiaries were members of a WUA, compared to only 13.9 percent non-beneficiaries. In addition, O&M payment rates substantially improved owing to the project’s interventions: this rate was only 17.46 percent among the interviewed non-beneficiaries—mainly because of their lack of participation in operational WUAs—compared to 90.72 percent among the beneficiaries. More importantly, beneficiaries paid, on average, higher O&M feeds compared to non-beneficiaries (US$7.1 per year per member versus US$2.62 per year per member). As an indication of the sustainability of the irrigation achievement, beneficiaries were 5.5 times more likely to participate in rehabilitation works than nonbeneficiaries (85.3 percent versus 15.4 percent), and 3.35 times more likely to implement the maintenance activities during the right period of the growing season (82.34 percent versus 17.6 percent). Agriculture Intensification

1 The CPPA is a document that defines mutual responsibilities of the entities involved with the rehabilitation of the irrigation infrastructure and O&M. These entities include the Regional Directorate of Agriculture and Livestock (Direction Régionale de l’agriculture et l’élevage, DRAE), the commune, and the federations of WUAs. 2 The beneficiaries located in Zone 2 were expected to have a long-term involvement in the project. 3 Although the monetary contributions of the WUAs may seem low, they also participated in kind (with labor) for some maintenance work, and this in-kind contribution was not monetized. The rate of in-kind contribution was about 90 percent as shown in the IE.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

35. The project enhanced the beneficiaries’ access to rice inputs (improved seeds, fertilizers, tools, and associated TA) by financing 1,464 demand-driven rice intensification subprojects in irrigated perimeters as part of Subcomponent A.1. Households in Zone 1 received the package once with an 80 percent subsidy (their contribution was in kind or in cash). Households in Zone 2 received matching grants for the technology package for three growing seasons, and the subsidy was decreasing (80 percent for season 1, 50 percent for season 2, and 20 percent for season 3). The project distributed 193.13 tons of rice seeds, 752.04 tons of mineral fertilizers, 1,153.59 tons of organic fertilizers, 15,324 small equipment, 11,770 agricultural accessories, and 27,094 storage tools. This technological package benefited 15,575 smallholders, including 8,000 women. The improved access to input is confirmed by an independent IE: 42 percent of the project’s beneficiaries used phytosanitary products, compared to 38 percent among non-beneficiaries. 36. Satisfaction rates were high among the beneficiaries, and there was also a demonstration effect with other farmers. The IE revealed that 93.6 percent of the beneficiaries intend to continue adopting the intensification activities in their plots as they believe that these techniques contribute to increased rice productivity. In addition, 51.5 percent of the beneficiaries adopted these techniques in their other plots. Similarly, the demonstration effect created by the project led to more sustained demand by non-beneficiaries for improved inputs: 71.7 percent of the beneficiaries interviewed as part of the IE noted the adoption of intensification techniques by non-beneficiaries. These took place mainly in Alaotra, Vakinankaratra, and Bongolava. However, it is worth mentioning that when the rate of subsidies decreased from 80 percent to 50 percent then 20 percent, the demand for the technology package decreased. This implies that the subsidy amount was not set at an appropriate level to encourage the demand. 37. Because of the irrigation and intensification activities, rice yields increased among the beneficiaries (table 4.3, annex 4). The average increase in yields observed in the subproject areas is 2.57 tons per ha, with regional differences: the least yield gains were observed in Alaotra, and the highest gain was observed in Menabe. The increased rice yield owing to the project’s activities is also demonstrated by an independent IE: for the last growing season supported by the project (2017–2018) while the beneficiaries obtained 4.5 tons per ha non-beneficiaries obtained 3.04 tons per ha. Because the irrigation works were completed with a relative delay, yields are expected to further increase through two main channels: (a) reduced water loss in the irrigation canals owing to rehabilitation works helps stabilize the rice output and maintain the baseline yield levels and (b) combined with the intensification activities in Subcomponent A.1, improved and increased access to water is a prerequisite to increased rice yields by allowing fertilizers to act efficiently. 38. To ensure the sustainability of the investments in the irrigation infrastructure and the rice intensification activities, the project invested in watershed development. The project financed 745 watershed protection subprojects in Zone 2, 260 in Zone 1, and 41 in Zone-PUPIRV, for a total of 1,046 subprojects. These subprojects were prepared following the implementation of Sub-Watershed Management Plans (Plans d’Aménagement et de Gestion Simplifié, PAGS) by 14,650 beneficiaries (44 percent of which were women). A PAGS is a multiyear planning tool (from four to five years) of sustainable investments in each sub-watershed and includes (a) the prioritization of activities to be conducted in the sub-watershed and the budget; (b) the implementation arrangements; and (c) rules and regulations, including environmental specifications, and social treaties ‘Dina Iraisana’ that specify violations and penalties. A total of 3,664 beneficiaries implemented 98 anti-erosion subprojects to restore 2,173.2 ha of sub-watershed land and the remaining 10,986 beneficiaries implemented 948 reforestation subprojects (tree planting, production of vetivers, and production of forest seedlings) that allowed the reforestation of 2,431.54 ha. Therefore, 2,316.4 ha were reforested or restored in Zone 2 and 2,288 ha in Zone 1 (as part of CFW program) by project closure. Based on the theory of change, improved sustainable land management practices in the sub-watersheds affecting the irrigated perimeters in the project areas are expected to contribute to increased rice yield by decreasing the rate of siltation in the irrigation canals, which, in turn, improves the flow of water available to the WUAs. These impacts are however not immediate; they are expected to materialize in the medium term.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

39. Terracing case study. An innovative and highly demanded watershed technique introduced by the project is the terracing technique. This technique was brought to Madagascar owing to a South-South exchange that brought a delegation of Malagasy agricultural experts and officials to Rwanda to learn about this technique. A case study is presented in annex 8. 40. The project also supported rapid and low-cost transfer of legal land rights to farming households. A total of 55,759 plots received land certificates or titles (target of 52,000), which correspond to 107 percent of the target. The increased number of certificates obtained among the beneficiaries is directly because of the project’s activities as demonstrated by the IE: the percentage of beneficiaries who obtained land certificates was 1.6 times more than among the non-beneficiaries (26.7 percent versus 16.86 percent). This demonstrates the effectiveness of the sensitization campaigns in the project areas, and also the support provided to land tenure offices (new or rehabilitated). However, this activity experienced strong delays that led to a reduction of targets. With improved land security, smallholders are expected to feel more confident and invest more in their land. Beneficiaries may increase their propensity to invest in soil and water conservation measures in the plots devoted to rice—their main staple crop—resulting in a 5 percent increase in yields as found in Ali, Alemu, and Deininger (2011)4 and a systematic review by Lawry et al (2014).5 41. To improve the food security of the beneficiaries, the project financed nutrition-sensitive agricultural activities. These include support to grow highly nutritious crops (horticultural products and crops other than rice), as well as improve the consumption, processing, and conservation of agricultural products. This support was provided as part of a collaboration between the National Nutrition Office (Office National de Nurtrition, ONN) and the National Watershed and Irrigated Perimeters Program (Programme National Bassins Versants Perimetres Irrigues, PNBVPI) to implement the Plan National d’ Action pour la Nutrition,6 whereby the project supported the diversification of the agricultural production, and the ONN intervened to downstream the production to add value to food products. Beneficiaries were jointly identified by the ONN and the Project Implementation Unit (PIU)/BVPI. For the agriculture diversification activities, the project financed 471 demand-driven subprojects with a contribution from the POs (10 percent of the total cost was the minimum participation required) to grow highly nutritious crops. These subprojects were implemented by 6,445 beneficiaries (65 percent of which were females) over an area of 742.7 ha. Most of the crops grown in terms of area are beans (61 percent of the area), sweet potatoes (16 percent), peanuts (11 percent), and horticulture products (4 percent). For the nutritional valorization, beneficiaries provided a smaller contribution, and mostly in-kind (agricultural production, fuel, labor, and so on.). These activities were implemented by the ONN and consisted of (a) promoting the consumption of highly nutritious food, (b) strengthening the capacity of households to have a permanent access to food, (c) monitoring the nutritional status of children under 5 years on a monthly basis, and (d) strengthening the capacity of communal nutrition agents through two training sessions per year. The detailed output of these activities can be found in annex 1.B. 42. The IE noted that 29.6 percent of the beneficiaries shared their knowledge about agriculture transformation with non-beneficiaries, but only 17.2 of the beneficiaries sold the transformed products. Qualitative evaluations noted a net improvement in children’s nutritional status as shown in table 4.4, annex 4. 43. To enhance the sustainability of the project’s achievements, the project first ensured the resilience of the rehabilitated infrastructure to weather-related shocks. The project supported the production and duplication of a manual on the management of hydroagricultural infrastructure according to the Malagasy Anti-flooding Norms for Hydroagricultural Infrastructure (les normes malgaches de construction des infrastructures hydroagricoles contre les crues et inondations, NIHYCRI). First, it trained trainers of trainers on this manual (43 engineers and technicians of Genie Rural)

4 Deininger, K., D. A. Ali, and T. Alemu, 2011. “Impacts of Land Certification on Tenure Security, Investment and Land Market Participation: Evidence from Ethiopia.” Land Econ. 87 (2): 312–334. 5 Lawry, S, C. Samii, R. Hall, A. Leopold, D. Hornby, and F. Mtero. 2014. “The Impact of Land Property Rights Interventions on Investment and Agricultural Productivity in Developing Countries: A Systematic Review.” Campbell Systematic Reviews. 6 This plan has four pillars: availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

in collaboration with the Disaster Prevention and Management Unit (Cellule de Prévention et Gestion des Urgences, CPGU), Direction du Genie Rural, and DRAE. Second, it trained 119 regional actors (entrepreneurs, consulting firms) on the NIHYCRI in four targeted regions. The manual was distributed to all trainees to serve as a future reference. 44. The project also improved the preparedness of the GoM to crises by strengthening the Early Warning System for cyclones and floods. As part of the activities of Component A, the project supported the creation of an agrometrological observation system by financing a study on the implementation of such system in the four targeted areas (Alaotra, Boeny, Menabe, and SAVA). It also financed a study on the implementation of hydrometric systems in Alaotra and Menabe, as well as the purchase of the required equipment. The purchase and set up of the equipment was done in a collaborative way between the CPGU, the local authorities, the National Bureau of Disaster Risk Management, and the General Directorate for Meteorology. The project also financed the analysis and modeling of the impact of climate change on agricultural production (Alaotra and Sava). The findings were validated in a workshop, and a booklet was produced to ensure the dissemination of the findings among the stakeholders, including producers and decision markers. 45. The project also strengthened the capacity of the National Locust Unit to perform its mission more efficiently. The project financed a diagnostic study of the national capacity in anti-locust efforts, with suggested reforms and implementation strategies. The recommendations of the study were validated by a consultation workshop and were the basis for improving the institutional framework and the governance structure of the anti-locust efforts of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock [MoAL]. However, because of implementation delays (the Anti-locust Invasions Center [Centre de lutte antiacridienne de Madagascar, IFVM] was in place an operational only in December 2016, 14 months before the original closing date), some activities that were supposed to be financed by the project were cancelled through the different restructurings. Instead, the project focused on strengthening the operational capacity of the IFVM to allow the collection of transmission of locust-related information, by purchasing equipment (smartphones, laptops, autonomous agrometeorological kits, rainfall buckets, and information systems) and providing trainings on key functions related to anti-locust efforts. 46. Finally, the project built one storage infrastructure to increase beneficiaries’ access to seeds in times of shock. This activity was cancelled after the first restructuring as explained earlier, but it resulted in building one storage infrastructure in Mahabo in the region of Menabe. The goal of the infrastructure was to enhance households’ access to food during the hunger season and provide them with additional sources of revenue. The storage infrastructure has a capacity of 50 tons and benefited 118 members, including 22 women. Objective (ii): Provision of a social safety net for the poor

47. The project’s activities not only enhanced poor households’ access to a safety net, but also pioneered an innovative safety net system for Madagascar. Activities of Component B, implemented by the FID, sought to provide a safety net to the poorest households through either the CFW activities or CCT (the condition being sending children regularly to school). The safety net program was complemented by a Livelihood Development Cash Grant (Fonds de soutien, FS) for each household, which consisted in providing a one-off cash grant to all households to develop an income- generating activity, mostly related to agricultural, livestock, and trading activities. This was prepared through household- level business plans and implemented in all the project areas and benefited all the participants in the CFW and CCT programs. The project achieved its PDO objective in terms of number of beneficiaries of safety nets. By the project closing date, about 63,422 beneficiaries participated in the safety net activities of the project (either CFW or CCTs), which is 3 percentage points higher than its revised target. 48. The CFW program consisted in providing communal works for the most vulnerable households in a given area. These households were selected using a combination of community-based selection and the Proxy Means Test (PMT) method, the efficacy of which has been verified by a study commissioned by the project. The subprojects were selected to last for 45 days and implemented over two periods for a given year. Eight regions were targeted: Amoron’i Mania,

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Haute Matsiatra, Ihorombe, Sava, Bongolava, Itasy, Menabe, and Vakinankaratra, complementary to the activities under Component A. The CFW activities benefited 57,591 households for a total of 6,892,325 person-days of work, which is 12 percentage points higher than its revised target of 6,142,000 person-days of work. A total of 2,321 subprojects were implemented as part of the project, with an average of six interventions in each targeted site. This represents 246 percent of the revised target of 944 subprojects. In addition to the safety net features of the temporary employment created, the project rehabilitated feeder roads and small-scale irrigation plots as show in table 4.5, annex 4. 49. A randomized IE of the CFW activities found that at the household level, beneficiaries of the CFW activities have a higher annual per capita consumption (172,000 MGA; US$53.75); a decreased poverty rate (35 percent less poor, living with less than US$1, among the beneficiaries), and increased food security (the fraction of households who worry about their food security was 7.3 percent smaller among the beneficiaries). A complementary IE found that the health status of beneficiary households improved: they are 3.4 percentage points less likely to be sick than non-beneficiary households. In addition, the IE found that the beneficiary households have an increased resilience to shocks: they are 6 percentage points more likely to recover after a shock compared to non-beneficiary households. Finally, the beneficiary satisfaction survey showed that 97 percent of the recipients of the CFW activities perceived a high or moderate efficacy of these activities. The CFW activities also enhanced beneficiaries’ access to public services owing to the different community subprojects presented in table 4.5, annex 4. 50. The pilot CCT program, the first of its kind in Madagascar, targeted 5,000 most vulnerable and poor households in 54 villages and 8 communes in the Betafo district, with children less than 10 years of age. The objective of the CCT was to provide an additional source of income (bimonthly cash transfers received by mothers) to foster human development through enhanced school enrollment and attendance among children ages between 6 and 10 years. The conditionality was based on regular school attendance of the children of beneficiaries. In addition, to ensure the sustainability of the program results and good practices among beneficiary households, the project included training on communications related to human development outcomes of beneficiaries and supported the implementation of essential family practices at the community level, in collaboration with the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF). Additional support provided by the project included strengthening the capacity of the mother leaders; creating monthly well-being sessions; and implementing behavioral nudges to strengthen women’s self-affirmation, financial planning, and savings. This innovation was designed jointly between the GoM (Ministry of Population, Social Protection, and Promotion of Women); the FID; the United States-based behavioral change agency idea42; and the World Bank team. Three additional transfers were provided in addition to the original target of 18 transfers. Therefore, a total of 21 bimonthly cash transfers were provided by project closure, which is 17 percentage points higher than the target. A total of 5,831 households benefited from the CCT program, which is 16.62 percentage points higher than the target of 5,000. The project provided critical support to the FID to conduct these CCT activities by providing essential equipment and TA to establish a beneficiary registry, enhance payment modalities, and support third-party monitoring (for example, through operational audits) and IE. 51. An independent IE of the program, using a quasi-experimental design, showed many positive impacts. First, poverty rates among beneficiary households decreased by 0.7 percent despite the overall precarious condition in Madagascar. Beneficiary households also reported having improved access to food, including protein-rich food for their children, and a better survival capacity owing to early harvest, which resulted in an overall improvement in their food security. The IE showed that beneficiary households were 8 percentage points more likely to have a good food consumption profile (determined by the food consumption index; 40 percent versus 32 percent). They also have a more diversified diet than non-beneficiary households (food diversity score of 4.9 versus 4.1 for non-beneficiary households). In addition, the CCT program had positive impacts on children’s human capital: children of beneficiary households were 7.9 percentage points more likely to be enrolled in school owing to the project, and child labor was also 1.2 percentage points less prevalent among beneficiary households.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

52. FS. This fund was implemented by the project to ensure the ‘graduation’ of beneficiaries, that is, facilitate their exit from the CFW and CCT programs, owing to financings and TA to support income-generating activities. Despite implementation challenges, this fund achieved 97 percent of its target. A total of 46,372 households (beneficiaries of CFW and CCT) received a grant of MGA 240,000 (US$75). They also benefited from TA and support to implement their subprojects. The beneficiaries of the FS were a total of 48,583 households, including 42,776 beneficiaries of the CFW activities and 5,807 beneficiaries of the CCT activities. 53. The implementation of Component B by the FID allowed the testing of different cash transfer mechanisms and innovations in all the steps of the safety net program in Madagascar: targeting the beneficiaries through a Proxy Means Test (PMT) (first time in Madagascar); cash payments with high regularity and transparency through third parties (e- payments and through microfinance institutions); establishment of an effective grievance redress mechanism (GRM) allowing for citizens’ engagement and transparency; design and implementation of behavioral interventions to strengthen beneficiaries’ agency; establishment of the mother leaders model; support for income-generating activities with business planning; and empowerment of families through well-being spaces, regular cash transfers, and other activities. Component B also prepared the innovations and improvement of the safety net programs in Madagascar, scaled up through the subsequent Social Safety Net Project. The implementation of Component B also allowed synergies between the two sectors (Agriculture and Social Protection) and the different implementing agencies, particularly the FID and PNBVPI for the CFW program, and the FID and Ministry of education for the CCT pilot. 54. Beneficiaries expressed overall satisfaction with the project’s safety net activities. A total of 79 percent of beneficiaries of the CFW and 85 percent of the beneficiaries of the CCT were satisfied or very satisfied with the quality of implementation. Objective (iii): Improved recipient’s capacity to respond promptly and efficiently to an eligible crisis or emergency

55. Because Component C was not triggered, this objective is not evaluated. However, the project did contribute to the achievement of this objective through the quick processing of the three restructurings that successfully increased the irrigated areas and the number of beneficiaries in the aftermath of weather-related disasters. Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 56. Despite the initial challenges faced by the project, but quickly addressed through the different restructurings, and given that the project was prepared under emergency conditions and was affected by a series of weather-related disasters, the project substantially achieved its objectives. All the PDO indicators and intermediate result indicators were substantially achieved as shown in table 4.1, annex 4 (except the intermediate indicator, regular project progress reports whose target was 94 percent achieved). What began as an emergency operation evolved into an operation that laid the foundation for increased rice productivity, enhanced resilience to weather-related shocks, and strengthened the capacity of the GoM to respond to future crises. Even in times of crises, the project innovated to better deliver on its results (see the terracing techniques and introduction of behavioral interventions in the CCT programs as examples). The project was also instrumental in developing the first social safety net programs and systems in Madagascar by piloting the CCT and CFW programs that today have become an integral part of the Social Protection Strategy of Madagascar. Therefore, the efficacy is rated Substantial. C. EFFICIENCY

Assessment of Efficiency and Rating Efficiency rating: Substantial

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

57. An economic and financial analysis (EFA) was carried out to evaluate the economic efficiency of the project through a cost-benefit analysis, using actual project outputs and costs. At the time of appraisal, a detailed or comprehensive EFA was not carried out for the project because of the short time frame for preparation (as this was an emergency operation) and the limited data available to develop a formal cost-benefit analysis. Instead, a preliminary assessment of the project’s economic aspects was done for the rice intensification, irrigation rehabilitation, and watershed management activities (activities in Component A). The EFA found that the total net present value (NPV) of the benefits likely to be generated by these activities were estimated at MGA 14,651 million (equivalent to US$4.58 million at an exchange rate of MGA 3,200:1) The internal rate of return (IRR) generated by the investments was estimated to be about 16.1 percent over an assumed investment life of 25 years. The detailed ex post analysis is presented in annex 3. Summary Results of the EFA

(a) The financial analysis for the rice intensification sub-projects was conducted for a representative household owning 0.25 ha of land for irrigated rice in two regions, each representative of Zone 1 or Zone 2. All models are financially profitable with a positive NPV and an economic rate of return (ERR) higher than the opportunity cost of capital. The rice intensification subproject was more profitable in Bongolava (Zone 2, 78 percent), compared to Sava (Zone 1, 16 percent). In addition, these investments generated an NPV of MGA 0.72 million (US$225.15) in Sava and MGA 1.19 million in Bongolava (US$371.78). The higher returns observed in Bongolava are consistent with decreasing returns to the project interventions, which is expected: the higher returns are observed in areas with lower baseline yield levels. (b) Overall, the activities of Component A were efficient. They generated US$51.24 million in NPV, with an ERR of 24.7 percent. A sensitivity analysis shows that the ERR varies from 16.2 percent to 24.7 percent, and the NPV varies from US$6.12 million to US$51.24 million. (c) Similarly, the activities of Component B (excluding the FS) were efficient. They generated almost US$7.21 million in NPV, with an ERR of 14.78 percent. A sensitivity analysis shows that the ERR varies from 13.62 percent to 14.78 percent, and the NPV varies from US$4.98 million to US$7.21 million. (d) Finally, the overall project was efficient. The EFA of the activities of Component A (minus anti-locust and Early Warning System activities) and Component B (minus the FS) yields an NPV of US$58.45 million and an ERR of 21.7 percent. The results remain robust to changes in the assumptions as shown in table 5.7 annex 5. The ERR varies between 15.7 percent and 21.9 percent, and the NPV varies between US$13.32 million and US$58.45 million. (e) There were also several positive initiatives that increased implementation efficiency. When the policy required for the land certification activities did not materialize, the GoM and World Bank redirected resources to activities that were strongly linked to the PDOs and had the potential to be completed by project closure. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 58. The overall outcome rating is Satisfactory given the following: • PDO achievement: Substantial. The project substantially achieved all its objectives, based on data from Implementation Status and Results Reports (ISRs), counterpart reporting, IEs, and the qualitative beneficiary evaluation. • Relevance of objectives, design, and implementation: High. The project’s objectives, design, and methodology were highly relevant and have continued to be relevant to the agriculture and social protection sectors, as evidenced by the PDO’s continued alignment with the SNDR, 2016–2020, and the FY17–FY21 CPF. • Efficiency: Substantial.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY)

Gender 59. As the project was designed to improve the livelihoods of vulnerable communities and extremely poor households, specific attention was paid to women. The project did achieve its target with regard to female beneficiaries, but their share in the total number of beneficiaries was only 40 percent. This is explained by the disparity in how the different activities targeted women’s participation. The project was successful in supporting female participation in four activities. The improved technologies promoted by the rice intensification activities (55 percent of the beneficiaries were women) had clear gender impacts in that many did not require intensive physical activity (78 percent of the POs interviewed as part of the qualitative assessment of the project reported that women were particularly motivated to adopt improved technologies because they found them easy to implement). Second, the watershed management activities (45 percent of the beneficiaries were women) were successful at targeting women.7 Third, the nutrition activities have specifically targeted women. Women had a high participation rate in these activities because 80 percent of beneficiary POs were managed by women, and 18 percent of the targeted households were headed by women. In addition, mother leaders were identified and received specific and periodic training by communal nutrition agents. Then these mother leaders trained other beneficiary mothers. Other activities included monitoring the nutritional status of pregnant PO members and providing them with TA. Fourth, the gender aspects were central in the safety net activities: (a) CCTs were paid directly to the female head of the household, and CFW activities aimed at reaching 50 percent women (48 percent of the beneficiaries were women); (b) many capacity-building activities targeted women, and (c) most of the support for income-generation activities targeted to women. Overall, more than 50 percent of the beneficiaries of the safety net activities were women. 60. However, the project failed to target women in the irrigation activities (only 25 percent of the beneficiaries were women). This is mainly because of the gender imbalances in the WUA leadership, with men being usually in a leadership position and women being part of the regular membership of the WUAs. In addition, the members of the WUAs tend to be either the land owners or the operators of the irrigated plots, who in turn tend to be men. An upcoming irrigation Advisory Services and Analytics intends to explore these issues further. Institutional Strengthening 61. The project conducted several institutional strengthening activities. First, it strengthened the organizational capacity of the POs and WUAs as explained in the efficacy section. This is a major achievement because, at the beginning of the project, most farmers were not part of the POs and most POs have never implemented or managed subprojects or training activities, which required learning. Second, the project supported the IFVM to strengthen their anti-locust efforts, land tenure institutions, and Early Warning Systems. Third, as part of Component B, the project strengthened the capacity of the FID. Through the CCT and CFW activities, the project strengthened the capacity of the FID as described in the efficacy section. Owing to the project’s support, the FID pioneered innovative safety net approaches based on lessons learned from previous experiences. As a demonstration of its improved capacity, the FID is now implementing the Social Safety Net Project (P149323). Institutional development of the FID also extended to the creation of key partnerships and synergies with other agencies and programs, including the Ministry of Education, and supported the emerging Ministry of Population, Social Protection, and Promotion of Women in developing the country’s Social Protection Policy.

7 Despite having less than 50 percent women, this rate is still high. It is less than half because these activities require a lot of soil work, mainly for planting pits and setting up fascines (bundles of tree branches used for filling ditches or building embankments).

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Mobilizing Private Sector Financing Not applicable. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 62. The design of the project was poverty focused for two main reasons. First, it aimed at increasing agricultural production capacity, mainly for rice the main staple crop in Madagascar, and ultimately incomes and food security. Many beneficiaries were close to the poverty line and were subsistence smallholders. The demonstrated increase in rice yields (see section on efficacy) is an indication that poverty levels may have been reduced owing to the project’s activities. Studies suggest that in Madagascar, increased irrigated paddy productivity is correlated with (a) a reduction in food insecurity because a 1 percent increase in rice yields leads to a reduction of the number of food insecure people by 5 percent and reduces the length of the lean period by two months (Minten and Barret 2005)8 and (b) the reduction of the paddy price to consumers as doubling of rice yields leads to a reduction in the price of rice by 45 percent in the harvest period and 20 percent in the lean season (Minten and Barret 2005). Increased rice yield is also likely to contribute to growth in the agricultural sector, which in turns would contribute to poverty reduction: according to the Madagascar Systematic Country Diagnostic, a 10 percent increase in agricultural growth in Madagascar can reduce poverty by 14 percent, compared to 4 percent for growth in mining and utilities. Second, the project is poverty focused because of the focus on the most vulnerable households through social safety nets activities of Component B (CFW, CCT, and FS). The project design included a targeting strategy that ensured that the poorest communities and households benefitted from the safety net activities. The targeting mechanism entailed a combination of geographical targeting to identify the most vulnerable communities along with a community-based targeting and a beneficiary selection using the PMT method. Independent IE showed that poverty levels decreased by 0.7 percent among beneficiaries of the CCT pilot—in the short term. In addition, the human capital created by ensuring that extremely poor families’ children go to school regularly is likely to provide positive long-term impacts, as experienced in other countries. Poverty levels among beneficiaries of the CFW activities were 35 percent lower than their counterparts who did not benefit from these activities. Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 63. Behavioral nudges to incentivize behavioral changes. In Betafo, the first behavioral interventions were tested and implemented as part of the CCT safety net program. This was a first in Africa, and the approach is now being scaled up through the safety net programs not only in Madagascar, but also in other countries. Based on the Madagascar experience, Tanzania, Kenya, and Ghana are now all designing their behavioral interventions to enhance human capital and productive inclusion impacts of their ongoing social safety net programs. The project provided the ground and experience to design and test these innovative instruments, which is a huge achievement given the socioeconomic context of the country. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME

A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 64. Quality of the background work. The project design was informed by the existing national knowledge and lessons learned from previous projects. The design of irrigation activities of Component A was based largely on lessons learned from the PNBVPI, including the BVPI/IDA/ Global Environment Facility (GEF) Project, an irrigation project, and lessons learned through the recently closed Rural Development Support Project (Projet de Soutien au Développement Rural) which demonstrated an effective approach for delivering agricultural services to vulnerable groups in remote rural areas. The project also drew on recent analytical work, including a 2011 World Bank study titled ‘Strengthening Agricultural Markets in Madagascar: Constraints and Opportunities’. The project also drew on the experience with locusts in West Africa to design the locust-related activities. The design of the land tenure activities took into account lessons learned from the

8 Minten, Bart, and Christopher B. Barrett. 2005. "Agricultural Technology, Productivity, Poverty and Food Security in Madagascar."

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

land reform in Madagascar, which showed that a decentralized approach to land registration helps circumvent the delays and costs of traditional procedures for assigning land rights. The design of Component B was based on lessons learned from community development and the CFW activities pioneered by IDA through the FID. Lessons were also drawn from the recent ICR of the Emergency Food Security and Reconstruction Project implemented by the FID. A thorough analysis of the country and sector context and the lessons learned from pervious basic services and irrigation projects was conducted. 65. Assessment of the project design. In general, the project design was consistent with international and regional best practices. For example, for Component A, the project emphasized the importance of the BVPI approach, an integrated approach to rice development, that is, simultaneously addressing the multiple problems that may be present in each irrigation area, as well as the surrounding watershed, and by involving all relevant stakeholders in the quest for solutions. The demand-driven and participatory approach adopted by the project was a strong feature of its design. This approach emphasized the responsibilities of all stakeholders in not only ensuring that technical interventions were holistic and comprehensive but also that they could be maintained and further strengthened in the future. For Component B, the design of the CFW and CCT benefited from previous experiences and introduced innovations at all steps of the safety net program in Madagascar: targeting of the beneficiaries, regular payments with few errors and no reported fraud, grievance mechanisms allowing for more transparency, training of beneficiaries, establishing and strengthening of mother leaders, support for income-generating activities and empowering of the families. 66. Implementation arrangements were in line with the national institutional framework, with overall coordination responsibility being handled by two experienced PIUs. For Component A, the implementation arrangements were the same as the ones used by the BVPI/IDA/GEF operation. Implementation was handled by the PIU at the central level, a structure consisting of experienced staff who were already involved with the BVPI and who were familiar with World Bank procedures, the DRAEs, and the Regional Monitoring Committees. This approach had multiple benefits: (a) it allowed the use of the existing institutional arrangements, which ensured efficient implementation; (b) it built the capacity of the DRAEs; and (c) it ensured ownership of the process which would likely affect the sustainability of the project. For Component B, the implementation arrangements were the same as the ones used by the PUPIRV operation. Implementation was handled by the FID, a structure that has successfully implemented several IDA-financed projects, including the US$40 million IDA-financed Emergency Food Security and Reconstruction Project (closed on June 30, 2013) and the social protection component of PUPIRV. During the implementation of PUPIRV, the FID has effectively responded to emergencies through the prompt implementation of a CFW program for vulnerable groups and has been an efficient mechanism for rehabilitating and reconstructing basic infrastructure following catastrophic events, including cyclones. Policy guidance and overall institutional oversight of the FID are the responsibility of the Board of Directors of the FID under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister. 67. PDO and indicators. The PDO was straightforward. The intermediate results for each component were generally clear and well targeted to the component’s overall objectives. However, some indicators were input indicators (for example, clients who have adopted an improved agriculture technology promoted by the project). The activities related to the locust reform and the Early Warning System could have included indicators to measure their degree of achievement. Finally, as explained in the M&E section, the targets were underestimated at appraisal given the emergency nature of the project. (These targets were later readjusted following the restructuring as explained in the section about restructuring.) 68. Adequacy of risk and mitigation measures identification. In general, the risk assessment and mitigation measures were adequate. The major risks identified at appraisal included (a) a high stakeholder risk because of the political crisis that severely affected the Government’s capacity to implement policies and donor programs, (b) moderate implementing agency risk, and (c) a moderate social and environmental risk. The mitigation measures for (a) and (c) were appropriate and proved to be effective. For example, to minimize the impact of the high stakeholder risk on the implementation of the project, it was decided to implement the project through two dedicated and experienced project implementation

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

agencies (BVPI and FID). These PIUs were carefully selected based on their good track records and experience in managing World Bank and other donors’ funds. However, the mitigation measures put in place for the implementing agency capacity proved to be weakly effective. For example, the BVPI PIU was also in charge of another World Bank project (Policy and Human Resources Development [PHRD]), which made its supervision work difficult. In addition, the fraud case noted in section IVB showed that the fiduciary risk was substantial. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 69. Overall, project implementation was completed satisfactorily, meeting all the outcome/output targets with 90.939 percent of the credit funds disbursed by financial closure. Implementation progress was reported as Satisfactory in the first ISR, then Moderately Satisfactory for the eight following ISRs (except the fifth, sixth and seventh ISRs that rated it as Moderately Unsatisfactory because the Government’s action plan to accelerate implementation following project effectiveness had not been fully implemented) to reflect delays in project implementation. However, as described in this section, the project team managed to put the project back on track and achieve its objectives in a Satisfactory way by the project closing date—the last two ISRs rated the project implementation Satisfactory. 70. The following challenges adversely affected the implementation of the project: (a) The late entry into effectiveness of the project. The initial effectiveness date was June 13, 2014. Instead, it took place on September 15, 2014, causing a delay of four months in implementation. This delay was mainly caused by a delay in the Parliament’s approval of the Financing Agreement, the publication of the Legal Memorandum, and the publication of the Grant and Credit Agreements in the Official Journal. (b) Multiple weather-related disasters that hit the project areas. This was described in the restructuring section. (c) Technical assistants of Component A (BVPI) were also in charge of the BVPI-PHRD Project, another World Bank project, which put pressure on their time. At the beginning of the implementation of the BVPI-PHRD Project there was only one technical assistant for the BVPI-PHRD Project (Technical Assistant for the Operations [Assistance Technique des Opérations, ATOP]), but because of his poor performance, he was dismissed at midterm. Instead, the two ATOPs of the project were also assigned the task of providing TA to the BVPI-PHRD Project. While this was a good idea in theory because it allowed effective coordination of the activities, in practice, the increased load of the two ATOPs negatively affected their ability to conduct the supervision activities in an effective way. (d) Fraud case. As discussed in the financial management (FM) section, there were fraudulent withdrawals from the project’s designated accounts linked to Component A by a former FM specialist employed in one of the project’s regional offices (reported in ISR sequence 7—midterm review). The project filed a complaint with the police and investigations were conducted. The case was reported to the Integrity Vice Presidency. The client has repaid the missing US$46,133.46 to the project account. 71. Because of these challenges, throughout implementation, the World Bank team and PIUs demonstrated their proactivity and resourcefulness. This is demonstrated by the immediate response to the different weather-related crises to conduct three Level 2 restructurings of the project and an extension of the closing date as described earlier. 72. In addition, the World Bank team and PIUs made considerable and concerted efforts to pick up speed by designing and implementing a very detailed work plan (chemin critique) at midterm, to ensure the completion of the project activities by the closing date. The commitment of the project team, in both the World Bank and PIUs, was key to seeing the achievement of the project’s objectives despite the considerable initial implementation delays. The team also requested an extension of the project closing date to mitigate the impacts of the cyclone Ava, and other weather-related disasters (heavy rains in November/December 2017) that affected the project toward the end of it lifespan. Without

9 The disbursement rate in SDR is 99.4 percent.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Cyclone Ava, the project would have achieved its objectives and completed its activities within the original closing date of February 28, 2018. 73. Other factors that positively affected the implementation of the project were the following: (a) The project was driven by the leadership of PIUs and the commitment of the technical staff at the regional level. The Government showed strong commitment to the project. Agents of the DRAEs were involved in all the project activities. The FID was also highly committed to the project. (b) The World Bank team and PIUs also demonstrated proactivity following the different weather-related crises—by reallocating resources to activities that were more likely to be achieved by project closure, the World Bank team and PIUs maximized the development impacts of the project’s resources. (c) The project was implemented in a participatory and inclusive way, with a direct and systematic engagement with beneficiaries in the planning, selection, and implementation of the activities. This was done owing to tools that were formulated and validated in a participatory way (CPPA, for example), as well as the creation and strengthening of the capacity of many beneficiary groups (WUAs, subproject groups, for example). This allowed better ownership of the activities by the beneficiaries. 74. The World Bank team sought to build synergies between the PIU/FID and the PIU/BVPI. The synergies were intended to ease the rehabilitation of small rural roads surrounding the large irrigated perimeters and benefit the poorest households who were not the targeted beneficiaries of Component A. A total of 11,157 households benefitted from the CFW activities, in synergy with the activities under Component A, corresponding to 633,392 person-days generated. Map 10.1 in annex 10 shows the areas where the activities of Components A and B overlapped. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME

A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E)

M&E Design 75. M&E design. The M&E framework was designed in collaboration with the GoM and other stakeholders, and M&E took place at two levels: central level (for the two PIUs) and regional level. The M&E arrangement of the implementing agencies were considered adequate and have been progressively updated during implementation of past projects. The M&E design was facilitated by a clear underlying theory of change that was a good basis for driving the choice of indicators. The Results Framework (as detailed in annex 1 of the PAD and section on Results Framework of the three Restructuring Papers) captured well the PDO, and each of the PDO and intermediate indicators was directly linked to a project outcome and adequately measured progress toward the overall PDO. The indicators were measurable and did not pose any undue challenge in their monitoring. The proposed data collection methods were appropriate for all indicators. In general, the targets were defined in a reasonable and achievable way, and their revisions during the different restructurings were only to reflect the reallocation of the resources among the different activities. The final set of targets were realistic as demonstrated by their degree of achievement. Data collection was manual and entered in Excel sheets, and reporting formats were adequate. M&E Implementation 76. M&E design implementation. The M&E framework was implemented adequately with support of staff within the PIUs despite some challenges. The PIU/BVPI (for Component A) did not have an M&E system until June 2015. A simple project monitoring tool (Excel sheets) was used during implementation to report the technical and financial progress of the project and track the indicators in the Results Framework. Each regional specialist oversaw the day-to day- management of the dataset. These datasets were updated regularly and sent to the central level monthly for verification

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and consolidation. The PIU/FID (for Component B) had a management information system (MIS) from the start and developed it further as the project advanced. 77. In addition, consultants were hired on an ad hoc basis for the midterm review and the final evaluations. Five final evaluations, including two IEs, were conducted by the project by its closing date (annex 11). These reports were generally of good quality and offered important insights on for the implementation and results of the project. 78. For Component A, unlike the plan, an M&E specialist was hired for only two months, following the recommendations of the midterm review, leaving the M&E responsibilities to the technical assistants (ATOPs) of the project who were assisted by administrative assistant within the PIUs. This situation was suboptimal because the ATOPs were busy with other tasks, but they had good capacity to regularly collect, analyze, and report the data. In addition, the National Planning, M&E Department10 of the MoAL, the Public Debt Department (Direction de la Dette Publique)11 of the Ministry of Finance and Budget (MFB), and the Directorate of Programming and Monitoring Evaluation (Direction de la Programmation et du Suivi Evaluation, DPSE) of the Ministry of the Presidency for Agriculture and Livestock (MPAE) monitored the project’s progress closely. These supports were beneficial for the project because they helped clear several bottlenecks in carrying out the activities; the reporting of the results was regularly documented in the Aide Memoires. In turn, the FID had an information technology-based MIS from the start, which was expanded over time to account for new elements such as the CCT program. The FID was able to provide the required monitoring of the project through reliable and timely information generated by the MIS. The institution has a well-established system of field monitoring of the safety net programs which was strengthened over time to include the GRM and other aspects of the project. As a result, timely and substantive project progress reports were provided at all times. M&E Utilization 79. M&E design utilization. M&E was useful for identifying implementation challenges, as demonstrated by the three successive restructurings. The midterm review provided a critical assessment of the project’s progress and led to beneficial restructurings, as explained earlier. This was made possible owing to the good quality of M&E data collected. For example, when the project team noticed a delay in implementation (with slow disbursement rates and achievement of targets), an action plan was put in place and a closer monitoring was conducted. This resulted in an improvement in the project performance as reported at the midterm review. Similarly, the M&E data, generated owing to the PIU/FID’s MIS and the many IEs that used a quasi-experimental or experimental design provided evidence of achievement of outcomes directly attributed to the project’s activities. The findings of the M&E data generated from the MIS and the evaluations of Component B allowed the FID to innovate in all the steps of cash transfer programs, and now it has the ability to scale up this innovation in Madagascar as demonstrated by its selection as the implementing agency for the Safety Net Project. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 80. The overall rating of the M&E is Substantial. There were minor shortcomings in the M&E system’s design and implementation (for Component A) identified earlier, but the M&E system as designed and implemented, especially the multiple IEs, was generally sufficient to assess the achievement of the objectives and test the links in the results chain. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE 81. Procurement. Except for the first ISR that has been rated ‘Satisfactory’, the procurement of the project has been consistently rated ‘Moderately Satisfactory’, and procurement risk has been consistently rated ‘Substantial’. The initial procurement capacity at the central and regional level was inadequate, but it improved (albeit at a later stage of the project) with training, implementation support, and remedial measures during the implementation of the project. At the midterm review, no major procurement issue has been raised. However, the first Post Procurement Review (PPR)

10 DPSE of the MPAE. 11 DPSE of the MPAE MFB.

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conducted at midterm, in June 2016, noted several procurement lapses for both implementing units (BVPI and FID), including poor planning of the activities; non-publication of unselected contracts; attribution of awards followed by an amendment 10 days later, and slow evaluation. Consequently, the PPR provided recommendations to improve the performance of procurement. The two PIUs of the project implemented most of the recommendations, and implemented regular procurement training, with strong implementation support from the World Bank and the ministry. The World Bank has also organized annual procurement review missions, and it provided technical support to the procurement team through procurement clinics (such as training on Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement in 2017; and another one on procurement strategies for development projects) to address identified gaps and remedial measures related to compliance. At project closure, all the contracts were awarded, and an additional contract was transferred from a parallel project (PHRD/BVPI). 82. FM. Except for the first ISR (dated June 2014) that was rated ‘Satisfactory’ and the seventh ISR (dated December 2016) rated ‘Moderately Unsatisfactory’, the FM of the project was consistently rated ‘Moderately Satisfactory’. The Moderately Unsatisfactory rating was because of fraudulent withdrawals from the project’s Designated Accounts (Ministry of Agriculture) by a former FM specialist employed in one of the project’s regional offices (reported in ISR sequence 7— midterm review). The fraud was linked to Component A managed by the PIU/BVPI. The project filed a complaint with the police and investigations were conducted. The culprit and his accomplice were tried in court, given conditional sentence, and ordered to pay fine and damages of US$48,000. The case was reported to the Integrity Vice Presidency. A full review of internal controls was conducted by the World Bank FM team to determine how such incidents can be prevented and easily detected in the future and recommendations were issued to strengthen the payment procedures. By the following ISR, most of these FM-related corrective measures recommended by the World Bank were addressed. In addition, the client submitted a repayment plan to return the missing US$46,133.46 to the project account. The first payment was made at the beginning of March 2017 and the balance was paid gradually. For these reasons, the FM rating was upgraded from Moderately Unsatisfactory to Moderately Satisfactory. Except for the major fraud case that was successfully addressed by the project, the FM suffered from minor weaknesses of the internal control system, including insufficient and inadequate supporting documentation for a range of expenditures, low quality of the planning and budget follow-up, and delays in implementing external and internal auditors’ recommendations. However, these weaknesses were overcome owing to capacity building delivered by the project. In general, the PIU was receptive to the World Bank’s comments on its FM, but it was slow at implementing the recommended actions, mainly because it oversaw two projects (the other one being BVPI/PHRD). Nonetheless, the FM reports produced by the PIU were generally of an acceptable quality after addressing the World Bank’s comments and were delivered on time. 83. Safeguards. The project was considered Category B at appraisal. The initial design triggered three World Bank safeguard policies, Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01), Pest Management (OP/BP 4.09), and Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12). In compliance with BP 10.00 (Investment Project Financing), an Environmental and Social Screening and Assessment Framework has been prepared to ensure compliance with the World Bank’s safeguard policies during implementation and guide the preparation of safeguard instruments during the project preparation phase. Four strategic documents, an Environmental and Social Management Framework, a Resettlement Policy Framework, a Pest and Pesticide Management Plan (already developed for the IDA-funded project [BVPI-P128831]), and a Dam Safety Manual were prepared, consulted upon, and disclosed both in-country and at the World Bank’s InfoShop. There were no major safeguard issues during project implementation and, overall, the project activities complied with all applicable World Bank policies, although with some delays. This is mainly because of a good project team that drew on experience gained during the BVPI/IDA/GEF Project and strong support from the World Bank. The team strictly adhered to the use of checklists and established effective mitigation measures. The supervision of the safeguards aspects was regular and documented in all Aide Memoires, as part of the biannual Implementation Support Missions (ISMs). The midterm review, as well the ISM, were organized in close collaboration with central and regional staff MPAE. The integration of social and environmental safeguard measures in the lifecycles of the subprojects of the two components was assessed as satisfactory.

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84. The activities implemented by the BVPI (Component A) did not have a specific GRM besides those documented in the Plan de Gestion Environnemental et Social (for the subprojects). Instead, the PIU/BVPI relied on the GRM of the former BVPI/IDA/GEF Project. All complaints were supposed to be recorded in a notebook and the issue was communicated to the MPAE to handle it. Project-affected people were informed of the existence of the system, but the PIU asserted that there were no complaints as part of the project. In addition, by design, all complaints or conflicts were managed based on the existing mechanisms, that is, using local-level community charters (‘Dina’). Because the project did not receive any complaint during its implementation, the mechanisms for addressing complaints were thus not operational. In turn, the social safety net activities implemented by the FID had a GRM that has addressed 25,352 complaints and grievances throughout the lifetime of the project (92 percent were processed in less than two months). No grievance was related to gender-based violence. C. BANK PERFORMANCE

Quality at Entry 85. The World Bank’s performance in ensuring quality at entry was Satisfactory. The project was designed as a multisectoral emergency operation in close coordination with the existing World Bank-supported programs in Agriculture, Land tenure, Infrastructure, Social Protection, Environment, and Nutrition. The preparation was conducted in close coordination with the relevant ministries (MoAL and its decentralized services including the DRAE and BVPI; new Ministry for the Population, Social Protection, and Promotion of Women; MFB; and Ministry of Education. The project was also designed in close collaboration with other partners operating in Madagascar (UNICEF, International Fund for Agricultural Development, World Food Programme, Food and Drug Administration, Asian Development Bank, EU, and embassy of Japan). The design of the Component A was well aligned with Madagascar’s agriculture agenda as it directly supported its BVPI strategy, as well as the World Bank’s CPF. The technical design of the project was sound and based on relevant experiences and lessons in Madagascar (the project is the third in a series of three similar projects) and other countries. The design of Component B was well aligned with Madagascar’s social protection agenda and the World Bank’s CPF. Key risks were identified with the proposed mitigation measures and M&E arrangements were discussed. Procurement, FM, and safeguards were adequately analyzed and addressed during project preparation and appraisal. In addition, except for some shortcomings identified earlier and corrected during the different restructurings, the Results Framework was well designed. The indicators were measurable, achievable, relevant, specific, and time-bound (both intermediate indicators and PDO indicators). 86. However, because of the emergency nature of the project, the following issues were encountered at the design stage: • The project could have benefited from a more comprehensive EFA. As stated in the efficiency section, the project conducted a partial EFA at appraisal, which focused on a subset of the activities of Component A. No analyses were conducted for Component B. • In addition, the lack of technical designs for irrigation works delayed project implementation. The irrigation activities in Component A were the major expenditure items for the project, and not having the irrigation design works delayed their implementation. • For Component A, implementation arrangements were good but the PIU/BVPI had many other responsibilities and projects to implement. These projects included the PHRD Project and the Watershed Management and Irrigated Perimeters Project. Quality of Supervision 87. The World Bank’s performance during project implementation was Satisfactory. Sufficient budget and staff resources were allocated to the project’s supervision. The project task team leadership was consistent (with only two

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

accountability and decision making responsible task team leaders—the last one joined the project at its final stages). Two ISMs were organized annually, except in 2016 where only one mission was organized. This was compensated by a task team leader and his team based in the field. In addition to ISMs, interim technical missions were organized to address problems with the project. Communications and consultations with the client were regular, open, and transparent. 88. The World Bank’s open approach with reporting ratings and discussions with the clients on key issues, including at midterm, ensured that the project made some progress even during the episodes of delays. At midterm, actionable and detailed action plans were elaborated to ensure that the project achieved its objective by the closing date. In addition, the World Bank requested that the project provide monthly Results Framework, monitoring of the technical progress of the activities, and financial monitoring (commitment and disbursement), starting December 2016. The World Bank also demonstrated its proactiveness by immediately addressing concerning issues such as the fraud detected during the midterm review. 89. In addition, the World Bank demonstrated flexibility and responsiveness as evidenced by the quick processing of the three restructurings of the project. Given the context of the project, and the priorities of the Government, the World Bank responded positively to the request of the Government to rehabilitate the irrigated perimeters affected by the cyclones. 90. One area that could have benefited from closer support by the task team of Component A is M&E. The task team leader ensured the support for M&E aspects, but it would have been good to have an M&E specialist as a full-time member of the World Bank team to provide support to the PIUs. This was not an issue for the task team of Component B, which has always included specialized evaluation experts. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 91. The overall World Bank performance rating was Satisfactory. There were minor quality of entry issues, as explained earlier. As a multisectoral emergency operation, the project preparation was completed in a short period, and thus there were no technical designs for the irrigation rehabilitation works. This was a major cause for the long delays in project implementation. The project also had a partial EFA at approval. However, the quality of supervision was satisfactory, with regular, continuous engagements and regular ISMs. The project provided adequate implementation support and addressed critical issues on time. The team was also proactive (as demonstrated by the rapid processing of three restructuring and extension of the closing date during the lifetime of the project), prepared well-documented Aide Memoires and ISRs, with clear action plans to address the identified implementation gaps. This, in turn, allowed for the intended results to be achieved. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME Moderate 92. The project had built-in sustainability mechanisms. The activities of Component A include designing and implementing the intensification subprojects in a collaborative and participative way, considering the needs and expectations of the beneficiaries, as well as the agroecological specificities of each intervention area. In addition, the irrigation activities were guided by the CPPA that was developed in a participatory way, committing all relevant stakeholders to a common goal and holding them mutually accountable. The irrigation infrastructure was designed following standards developed to enhance resilience to climate change. The WUAs and POs received capacity-building activities that empowered them to better manage irrigation perimeters and conduct rice intensification activities. By strengthening the capacity of the IFVM, supporting the central and local institutions in charge of the land tenure reform, and strengthening the Early Warning System in Madagascar, the project increased the sustainability of the results. In addition, there is a strong ownership of the project by the GoM at the regional level. The DRAE agents were fully part of the project (technical support, M&E).

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93. For Component B, sustainability has been at the heart of the objectives of the FID throughout the project. One of the main outcomes of the CCT is a behavioral change among the beneficiaries and investment in children’s education, which is known to have long-term positive effects on the lifelong income earnings, health, and overall well-being. In addition, beneficiaries of the CFW acquired productive assets, which would contribute to the sustainable improvement in their livelihoods. Activities like the FS are expected to maximize the sustainability of outcomes of the CCT and CFW programs by providing the beneficiaries with support to implement income-generating activities and investing in productive assets. In addition, the FID has been instrumental in developing the foundation for a social safety net system in Madagascar, which is flexible and could be scaled up when additional external and internal resources become available. The project support allowed the FID to improve the cash transfer mechanism in Madagascar by testing and innovating at all the stages of social protection programs (from targeting of the beneficiaries to payment modalities and frequencies, GRMs, training for beneficiaries, training of mother leaders, and support for income-generating activities.) The FID is continuing its program through the Social Safety Net Project which is currently being implemented by donors such as the World Bank and UNICEF. 94. However, there are risks to development outcome especially for the activities of Component A, for the following reasons: • Intensification activities. In Zone 2, the activities of this component were supposed to be implemented over a period of three growing cycles, with the project providing a technology package with a decreasing subsidy. However, the retention rate (number of beneficiaries who move from one cycle to the next) was low (attrition rate of 60 percent between the first and second cycle and 78 percent between the second and third cycles), showing a low willingness to pay for the inputs when the subsidy decreases to less than 50 percent of the price of the package. This calls for alternative arrangements to encourage the uptake of improved technologies. For example, it would be good to identify the optimal level of subsidy that would encourage the uptake of different technologies. In Zone 1, where beneficiaries received a subsidized package, it is also early to assess the viability and durability of the uptake levels observed in the field. • Irrigation activities. The durability of the rehabilitated infrastructure will depend on how well the WUAs can recover the O&M fees from their members. • Watershed management. The issue of financing of these activities (buying seedlings for example) has been largely ignored, which is problematic for cash-constrained smallholders who are unlikely to make the required expenses for returns that will take place only in the long run (planting trees, for example). Another factor that may limit the sustainability of outcomes of this component is the fact that the ‘dinas’, which are social contracts that are supposed to regulate the management and preservation of investments in the watershed, are not approved at the districts and courts of first instance. Hence, it would be difficult to implement them and enforce the sanctions. • Anti-locust efforts. For this activity, the project provided support for the reform of the anti-locust strategies and strengthened the capacity of the new structure in charge of these efforts (IFVM). The sustainability of these efforts will depend on if and when the IVFM is endowed with operational means (Internet or transport). 95. Despite its emergency nature, the project prepared the foundation for further support to the Agriculture and Social Protection sectors, and therefore, the risks to development outcomes are Moderate. These projects include (a) The Madagascar Agriculture Rural Growth and Land Management Project (CASEF) (P151469) as it has activities that link farmers to markets, increase land tenure security and support Early Warning Systems (through the agriculture observatory); (b) The GEF Sustainable Landscape Management Project (PADAP) (P154698) that is building the institutional capacity for watershed management at the local and national level;

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(c) The recently closed PHRD Project (P128831) that created community seed banks, providing rice producers with access to improved seeds on credit; (d) The new ASA on irrigation, Unlocking the Potential of Small and Medium Irrigation Schemes in Madagascar (P168000), which will identify solutions to strength the institutions in charge of irrigation in Madagascar; (e) The Madagascar Social Safety Net Project (P149323) that is scaling up the innovations tested under the project; and (f) The Improving Nutrition Outcomes using the Multiphase Programmatic Approach (P160848), the design of which was informed by the nutrition activities of the Project. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 96. Projects promoting rice intensification should also focus on improving irrigation infrastructures. Without rehabilitation and maintenance of the irrigation infrastructure, water losses increase, leading to a decrease in yields. Therefore, irrigation stabilizes the rice yields. In addition, without proper amounts of water, plants are stressed, and intensification activities (improved inputs, growing practices, and so on) fail to achieve the desired yield. 97. The MAPER was a powerful tool to ensure the ownership by the beneficiaries of the management of the irrigation infrastructure. However, it would be good to expand this tool to also include the management of factors affecting watersheds (mainly anti-erosion activities), which are key for the sustainability of the project. During the lifetime of the project, activities at the watershed were financed by the project, but as explained earlier, the beneficiaries were not willing to spend money on these activities after project closure. The GEF Sustainable Landscape Management Project (P154698), co-financed by the World Bank, GEF, and the French Development Agency is tackling some of these issues. It is adopting a landscape approach and is building the institutional capacity for watershed management at the local and national level. 98. Implementing the project through the existing structures (BVPI within the MoAL and FID) ensures its sustainability. As discussed, Component A was implemented through the BVPI a unit within the MPAE that has overseen the National Watershed Program in Madagascar. In addition, the DRAE played a key role in the implementation of the project. This increased the ownership of the project and is expected to result in increased sustainability. However, a review of the current institutional framework for irrigation in Madagascar is needed to ensure the sustainability of the irrigation infrastructure. This a knowledge gap that an upcoming irrigation analytical work is intending to fill. Component B was implemented by the FID, a structure that has been instrumental in designing and improving social protection programs in Madagascar as discussed in the report. 99. Emergency operations can indeed launch IEs to measure the impacts of the activities. In general, emergency operations are not required to have evaluations, let alone IEs, to show results. This project has shown that it is indeed possible to launch evaluations on time and in a scientific way to measure the results of project outcomes. 100. The project demonstrated that it is possible to design an emergency operation in a short time and implement it effectively as long as there is enough experience in the sector, including lessons learned from previous operations. This also contributes to the ongoing debate on how best to respond to a crisis situation given the multitude of instruments available at the World Bank such as the Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown and contingent emergency response component. .

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS

A. RESULTS INDICATORS

A.1 PDO Indicators

Objective/Outcome: Increasing agricultural production capacity in Project Areas Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Area provided with irrigation Hectare(Ha) 12000.00 27670.00 35050.00 51199.10 and drainage services (ha) 27-Feb-2014 28-Feb-2018 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018

Area provided with Hectare(Ha) 12000.00 27670.00 33550.00 51199.10 irrigation and drainage services - Improved (ha) 27-Feb-2014 28-Feb-2018 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018

Comments (achievements against targets): This PDO indicator was substantially achieved. By the end of the Project, a total of 51,199 ha/ (from a baseline of 12,000 ha) benefited from improved irrigation and drainage services, which is 46.1. percentage points higher than the revised target (35,050 ha).

Objective/Outcome: Enabling extremely poor households to access cash transfers and cash for work activities

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of beneficiaries of Number 0.00 50000.00 61500.00 63422.00 safety net programs in project areas 27-Feb-2014 28-Feb-2018 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018

Comments (achievements against targets): This PDO indicator was substantially achieved. By the Project closing date, about 63, 422 beneficiaries participated in the safety net activities of the Project (either cash for work or conditional cash transfers), which is 3 percentage points higher than its revised target of 61,500.

Objective/Outcome: Improving the Recipient’s capacity to respond promptly and efficiently to an Eligible Crisis or Emer Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Direct project beneficiaries Number 0.00 81350.00 101090.00 125837.00

27-Feb-2014 28-Feb-2018 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018

Female beneficiaries Percentage 0.00 40675.00 50545.00 51268.00

27-Feb-2014 28-Feb-2018 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018

Comments (achievements against targets): This PDO was substantially achieved. At the end of the project 125,837 beneficiaries were reached, compared to a revised target at restructuring of 101, 090 (an increase of 24 percentage point). In addition, the project met its target in terms of number of female beneficiaries. At the end of the project, 51,268 beneficiaries were female, which is 1 percentage points higher than the target of 50,545.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

The unit of measure for female beneficiaries is the number and not the percentage because of a typo.

A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators

Component: Component A: Restoring and maintaining essential agricultural productive capacity

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Clients who have received Number 0.00 16000.00 18280.00 22020.00 agricultural services promoted by the project 27-Feb-2014 28-Feb-2018 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018

Comments (achievements against targets): This indicator was substantially achieved. By the end of the Project, 22,020 beneficiaries received agricultural services promoted by the Project, which is 20 percentage points higher than the target of 18,280.

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Land parcels with use or Number 25000.00 325000.00 52000.00 55759.00 ownership rights recorded as a result of the project 27-Feb-2014 28-Feb-2018 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Comments (achievements against targets): This target was achieved. By the end of the Project, 55,759 land parcels were issued land certificates, which is 7 percentage points higher than the revised target of 52,000.

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Area restored or Hectare(Ha) 0.00 15500.00 3800.00 4604.60 re/afforested 27-Feb-2014 28-Feb-2018 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018

Area restored Hectare(Ha) 0.00 15500.00 3800.00 4604.60

27-Feb-2014 28-Feb-2018 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018

Comments (achievements against targets): This target was substantially achieved. By the end of the Project, 4,604.60 ha of watersheds were reforested, which is 21 percentage points higher than the revised target of 3,800 ha.

Component: Component B: Providing a social safety net for the poor

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Person-days of employment Number 0.00 4824000.00 6142000.00 6892325.00 created 27-Feb-2014 28-Feb-2018 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Comments (achievements against targets): This target was achieved. By the end of the Project, the Cash for Work program created 6,892,325 person-days of employment, which is 12 percentage points higher than the revised target of 6,142,000.

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of families included Number 0.00 70000.00 81550.00 83788.00 in the beneficiary registry 27-Feb-2014 28-Feb-2018 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018

Comments (achievements against targets): This target was achieved. By the end of the Project, 83,788 families were included in the beneficiary registry, which is 3 percentage points higher than the revised target.

Component: Component D: Project management

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Regular project progress Number 0.00 16.00 16.00 15.00 reports 27-Feb-2014 28-Feb-2018 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018

Comments (achievements against targets):

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Because of the initial implementation delays, the target for this indicator should have been readjusted to 15 instead of 16. 94 percent of the target for this indicator was achieved. The 15 progress reports received by the World Bank team covered the period between the first quarter of 2015 and the second quarter of 2018. The first report covering the fourth quarter of 2014 has not been produced because the technical assistants of the BVPI component were not hired at that time.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT

Objective/Outcome 1: increasing agricultural production capacity in Project Areas 1. Area provided with irrigation and drainage services (ha). The project rehabilitated 51,199.1 Outcome Indicators ha, which is 46 percentage points higher than the revised target of 35,050. 1. Clients who have received agricultural services promoted by the project: 22,020 smallholders received agricultural services promoted by the project, which is 20 percentage points higher than the revised target of 18,280. 2. Land parcels with use or ownership rights recorded as a result of the project: 55,759 land Intermediate Results Indicators parcels were issued land certificates, which is 7 percentage points higher than the revised target of 52,000. 3. Area restored or re/afforested: 4,604 ha of land were restored or reforested, which is 21 percentage points higher than the revised target of 3,800 ha. Component A: Restoring and maintaining essential agricultural productive capacity. Rice intensification 1. 1,935 subprojects were supported by the project: 1,464 subprojects for rice intensification and 471 subprojects for highly nutritious crops. 2. 22,020 beneficiaries, including 12,209 females. 3. 4 988 ha of land benefited from the intensification activities, including 4,245 ha of irrigated rice. Key Outputs by Component

(linked to the achievement of the Irrigation Objective/Outcome 1) 1. 230 irrigated perimeters were rehabilitated (including 36 irrigated perimeters larger than 200 ha) in collaboration with WUAs. 97 irrigated perimeters were in the initial project areas (Zones 1 and 2), and the remaining 123 were located in areas affected by the cyclones (Zone PUPIRV) 2. 47647 direct beneficiaries, including 11758 females.

Watershed management and protection

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

1. 1,046 subprojects of protection and management of watersheds were implemented in the initial zones of the project (Zones 1 and 2) and the cyclone affected zones (PUPIRV) 2. 14,650 beneficiaries, including 6,543 females 3. 4,604 are restored, including 2,431 ha of revegetation subprojects and 2,173 ha of anti- erosion subprojects.

Land tenure activities 1. 55,759 plots received land certificates or titles. 2. Land tenure services at the centralized and decentralized level received capacity-building activities.

Nutrition activities 1. Financing of 471 subprojects to grow highly nutritious crops in project areas, implemented by 6,445 beneficiaries (65 percent of which were females) over an area of 742.7 ha. 2. Most of the crops grown in terms of area are beans (61 percent of the area), sweet potatoes (16 percent), peanuts (11 percent) and horticulture products (4 percent). 3. ONN Implemented the following activities: • Promotion of consumption of highly nutritious food. This was done through 126 sensitization campaigns among 337 households. In addition, 6,320 households received support from Agent Communities de Nutrition (CAN). Mother leaders were identified and received specific trainings. They then trained other members of their community. • Strengthening the capacity of households to have a permanent access to food. 144 nutrition campaigns were provided (61 about conservation of food, and 83 about transformation of food). 4,132 households received training on simple food conservation practices and how to valorize them during the off season. 5,163 households were trained on food transformation techniques such as enrichened flower and yogurt. 405 POs received equipment for transformation and processing of agricultural products. • Monitoring the nutritional status of children under 5 years on a monthly basis.

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• Also strengthening the capacity of communal nutrition agents through two training sessions per year.

Objective/Outcome 2: Enabling extremely poor households, in the Project Areas, to access cash transfers and cash for work activities

1. Number of beneficiaries of safety net programs in project areas: 63,422 individuals Outcome Indicators benefited from the safety net programs, which is 3 percentage points higher than the revised target of 61,500. 2. Person-days of employment created: 6,892,325 person-days of employment were created, which is 12 percentage points higher than the revised target of 6,142,000 Intermediate Results Indicators 2. Number of families included in the beneficiary registry: 83,788 families were included in the beneficiary registry, which is 3 percentage points higher than the revised target of 81,550 CFW activities 1. 2,321 CFW subprojects were implemented. 2. 57,591 beneficiaries, including 27,625 females. 3. Beneficiaries were targeted following a rigorous mechanism (PMT and community-based targeting) CCT activities Key Outputs by Component 1. 21 cash transfers took place. (linked to the achievement of the 2. 5,831 beneficiaries, 5,320 females Objective/Outcome 2) 3. Cash was delivered under the condition of regular school attendance by the children of the beneficiaries.

FS 1. 46,372 households benefited from this program. 2. This program is intended to ensure the sustainability of the achievements of the CFW and the CCT activities.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Objective/Outcome 3: improving the Recipient’s capacity to respond promptly and efficiently to an Eligible Crisis or Emergency. 1. Direct project beneficiaries: 125,837 individuals benefited from the project, which is 24 percentage points higher than the revised target of 101,090. Outcome Indicators 2. Female beneficiaries: 51,268 females benefited from the project, which is 1 percentage points higher than the revised target of 50,045. Intermediate Results Indicators None Anti-locust efforts 1. Supporting the Government strategies in terms of preventive anti-locust efforts. 2. The new structure in charge of anti-locust efforts is endowed with infrastructure and equipment and benefited from capacity building activities. Development of an Early Warning System Key Outputs by Component 1. The National Directorate of Meteorology owns additional means to alert the population in (linked to the achievement of the the targeted area of flooding risks. Objective/Outcome 2) 2. The populations of Andapa and Mahabo own hydrometric equipment and a shelter that could also be used as a storage space. 3. The Direction du Genie Rural has the ability to use and apply the new norms for construction/rehabilitation of hydroagricultural infrastructure, as well as the ability to train other interested actors.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION

A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS

Name Role Preparation Ziva Razafintsalama Team Leader Andrea Vermehren Lead Social Protection Specialist Michael Morris Lead Agriculture Economist Katy Roffe Sr Program Asst. Hassine Hedda Senior Finance Officer Juvenal Nzambimana Senior Operations Officer Marie-Claudine Fundi Language Program Assistant Marie Jeanne Uwanyarwaya Senior Executive Assistant Cheikh A. T. Sagna Senior Social Development Specialist Andre Teyssier Sr Land Administration Specialist Helene Bertaud Senior Counsel Paul-Jean Feno Senior Environmental Specialist Lova Niaina Ravaoarimino Procurement Specialist Pierrick Fraval Sr Water Resources Spec. Joseph Byamugisha Financial Management Specialist Jan Joost Nijhoff Senior Agriculture Economist Bodomalala Sehenoarisoa Rabarijohn E T Temporary Christophe Ribes Ros Consultant Supervision/ICR Ziva Razafintsalama Task Team Leader Giuseppe Fantozzi, Andrea Vermehren Task Team Leader(s) Miarana Heriniana Aime Razaf Procurement Specialist(s) Maharavo Harimandimby Ramarotahiantsoa Financial Management Specialist Marie Lolo Sow Program Assistant Andre Teyssier Sr. Land Specialist Julia Rachel Ravelosoa Sr. Social Protection Speciliast Paul-Jean Feno Environmental Specialist Andrianjaka Rado Razafimandimby Social Specialist Herintsoavololona Rakotondrabe Richardson Irrigation Specialist

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

B. STAFF TIME AND COST

Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY14 52.759 286,655.27 FY15 25.269 83,556.42 FY16 1.550 10,735.88 FY17 0 596.05

Total 79.58 381,543.62

Supervision/ICR FY16 2.415 10,032.97 FY17 11.789 42,979.89 FY18 28.195 155,980.50 FY19 4.700 12,311.32 Total 47.10 221,304.68

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ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT

Actual at Project Amount at Approval Percentage of Approval Components Closing (US$, (US$, millions) (US$, millions) millions) Component A: Restoring and Maintaining Essential Agricultural 39.00 35.63 91.4 Productive Capacity Component B: Providing a Social 17.20 14.51 84.4 Safety Net for the Poor Component C: Contingency 0.00 0.00 — Emergency Fund Component D: Project Management 8.80 8.96 101.9 Total 65.00 59.11 90.9 Note. Because of the depreciation of the SDR compared to the U.S. dollar, the total amount of the credit (SDR 42,300,000) was equivalent to US$58,604,958 as of December 10, 2018, and as shown in Client Connection. Of this depreciated credit amount, SDR 42,036,556.92 (equivalent to US$58,239,968.15) was disbursed, resulting in a 99.4 percent disbursement rate.

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ANNEX 4. KEY TABLES

Table 4.1. Original and Revised Indicators Indicators Original Restructuring Paper 1 Restructuring Paper 2 Restructuring Paper 3 Actual per Closing % Achieved Target 06/2016 05/2017 07/2017 PDO INDICATORS Area provided 27,670 Revised 33,550 Revised 35,050 None – 51,199.1 146 with irrigation and drainage services (ha) Number of 50,000 No change Revised 61,500 None 63,422 103 beneficiaries of safety net programs in project areas Direct project 81,350 Revised 88,290 Revised 101,090 None 125,837 124 beneficiaries Female 40,675 Revised 44,145 Revised 50,545 None 51,268 101 beneficiaries INTERMEDIATE RESULTS INDICATORS Component A: Restoring and Maintaining Essential Agricultural Productive Capacity 1. Clients who 16,000 Revised 18,280 No change None 22,020 120 have received agricultural services promoted by the project 2. Number of 20 Deleted — — — — 1 n.a. communes that have rehabilitated small-scale infrastructure to access markets in project areas

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Indicators Original Restructuring Paper 1 Restructuring Paper 2 Restructuring Paper 3 Actual per Closing % Achieved Target 06/2016 05/2017 07/2017 3. Land parcels 325,000 Revised 75,500 Revised 52,000 None 55,759 107 with use or ownership rights recorded as a result of the project 4. Area restored 15,500 Revised 3,800 — — None 4,604.6 121 or re/afforested (Hectare (Ha), Core) Component B: Providing a Social Safety Net for the Poor 5. Person-days 4,824,000 No change — Revised 6,142,000 None 6,892,325 112 of employment created 6. Number of 70,000 No change — Revised 81,550 — 83,788 103 families included in the beneficiary registry Component D: Project Management 7.Regular project 16 No change — No change No change 15 94 progress reports

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Table 4.2. Area Provided with Irrigation and Drainage Services (ha) Zone Number of Number of Number of Women Irrigated Rehabilitated Rehabilitation % of Perimeters Subprojects Beneficiaries Perimeters (ha) Areas (ha) Rate (%) Total Zone 1 97 103 13,904 3,450 24,791 13,360.5 54 34.1 Zone 2 10 23 16,043 2,719 25,761 11,196.0 43 28.6 Additional zones (post — — — — — — — — restructuring) Zones PUPIRV 60 60 3,807 1,300 4,338 3,266.6 75 8.3 Zone Cyclone damage 63 64 13,893 4,289 16,434 11,376.0 69 29.0 Total 230 250 47,647 11,758 71,324 39,199.1 55 100.0 Source: PIU/BVPI. Table 4.3. Rice Yield in 2017 Region Yield in SP (t/ha) Yield Outside of SP (t/ha) ∆R (t/ha) Ihorombe 5.13 2.09 3.04 Matsiatra 4.93 2.09 2.84 Amoron’i Mania 6.32 2.73 3.59 Vakinankaratra 5.55 2.60 2.95 Menabe 6.31 2.60 3.71 Itasy 7.25 4.25 3.00 Bongolava 5.01 3.47 1.54 Analamanga 5.94 3.28 2.66 Alaotra 5.23 4.17 1.06 Sava 8.03 6.48 1.55 Boeny 4.39 1.97 2.42 Source: PIU/BVPI.

Table 4.4. Improvements in Children’s Nutritional Status as a Result of the Nutrition Activities Implemented by ONN Region Number 2015 2016 2017 % % % % % % Malnourished Malnourished Malnourished Malnourished Malnourished Malnourished Number at Baseline at End line Number at Baseline at End line Number at Baseline at End line Boeny 570 227 24.0 10.8 149 5.60 0.0. 194 29.40 19.20 Bongolava 504 104 16.13 7.41 166 15.38 11.50 234 10.20 18.75 Itasy 640 91 22.22 7.14 267 282 24.17 18.45

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Region Number 2015 2016 2017 % % % % % % Malnourished Malnourished Malnourished Malnourished Malnourished Malnourished Number at Baseline at End line Number at Baseline at End line Number at Baseline at End line Menabe 350 70 17.14 2.86 130 16.15 3.85 150 13.33 7.33 Vakinankaratra 875 83 34.93 6.41 474 11.6 5.38 318 40.25 6.46 Amoroni'I 34.0 Mania 2,537 873 29.0 1,318 40.00 29.00 346 65.00 61.00 Haute 0.0 Matsiatra 543 117 0.0 247 21.42 13.13 179 48.48 11.26 Ihorombe 265 70 37.14 2.85 113 30.08 1.70 82 35.36 3.65 Total 6284 1635 2864 1785 Table 4.5. Subprojects Implemented as Part of the CFW Program Subprojects under the CFW Program (FID) Indicator Value Development and sanitation of areas (schools, villages, and so on.) Developed area (ha) 175 Rehabilitation of community offices Number of offices rehabilitated (#) 3 Rehabilitation or dredging of irrigation canals Length of dredged canal (km) 532 Building small irrigation infrastructure Length of the work (km) 68 Construction of fish ponds Fishponds built (#) 1 Building or rehabilitation of rural roads Length of rural road (km) 4,053 Construction or rehabilitation of water reservoirs and/wells Number of reservoirs/wells built or rehabilitated (#) 407 Communal crops/reforestation Area reforested (ha) 88 Subprojects Implemented by FID in Synergy with BVPI Indicator Value Rehabilitation or dredging of irrigation canals Length of dredged canal (km) 120 Watershed management Area managed (ha) 12 Building or rehabilitation of rural roads Length of rural road (km) 294 Source: FID/PIU.

Table 4.6. Impacts of the CCT Activities Indicator Beneficiaries Non-beneficiaries % with acceptable food consumption index 40.00 32.0 Average food diversity index 4.90 4.1 % access to vitamin A rich food 88.95 88.0 % to protein rich food 71.20 59.8 Child labor (%) 5.00 6.2

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Indicator Beneficiaries Non-beneficiaries % of 6–17 children who were sick prior to the survey 2.10 6.2 % who perceived an increase in revenue 77.00 26.0 Source: FID.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

ANNEX 5. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS

1. The objective of the PURSAPS was to increase welfare throughout Madagascar. This was done in three ways:

(a) The project increased agricultural production capacity of the beneficiaries to safeguard their food security. This was done by increasing agricultural households and their organizations’ access to improved inputs and fertilizers, rehabilitating irrigation infrastructure in irrigated perimeters, and strengthening the capacity of POs and WUAs. The project also promoted sustainable management practices for watersheds and supported rapid and low-cost land registration to incentivize these practices by the beneficiaries.

(b) The project provided income-earning opportunities for vulnerable households through CFW programs and supported the most vulnerable households with CCT programs.

(c) The project improved the capacity of public agencies and communities to become more resilient to natural disasters such as locusts and droughts.

2. EFA at appraisal. At the time of appraisal, a detailed or comprehensive EFA had not been carried out for the project because of the short time frame for preparation (as this was an emergency operation) and the limited data available to develop a formal cost-benefit analysis. Instead, a preliminary assessment of the project’s economic aspects was done for Subcomponent A.1, which supports agricultural intensification and irrigation infrastructure, and Subcomponent A.2, which supports watershed management. The EFA found that the total net present value (NPV) of the benefits likely to be generated by these activities were estimated at MGA 14,651 million (equivalent to US$4.58 million at an exchange rate of 3,200:1).12 The IRR generated by the investments was estimated to be about 16.1 percent over an assumed investment life of 25 years. These indicative results, which were consistent with a large body of detailed economic analyses done for other irrigation development projects, including the BVPI, provided some reassurance at appraisal that the investments proposed under Subcomponents A.1 and A.2 are economically sound.

3. Methodology of the ex post EFA. This ICR used a simple cost-benefit analysis to calculate the NPV and the ERR of the project. The analysis was conducted mainly using project reports, final evaluations of the project, monitoring spreadsheets from both implementing agencies (BVPI and FID), and national databases for crop prices. The analysis that follows examines the costs and benefits of the two main operational components of the project (Components A and B) separately, then derives an NPV and ERR for the entire project. The project yields several positive externalities, such as improvement in human capital (farmers and their associations learned skills through trainings and workshops organized by the project), improved health because of improved nutrition owing to the nutrition diversification activities and the CCT activities. The PAD described some of the externalities but did not quantify them. Similarly, this analysis recognizes these additional positive externalities but did not quantify them because of data limitations.

12 This corresponds to MGA 14,651 million using the exchange rate of US$1 = MGA 2,200 at appraisal.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Economic and Financial Analysis of the Activities of Component A

4. This section will describe the EFA of the following activities of Component A: rice intensification, crop diversification, irrigation rehabilitation, land tenure activities, and watershed management activities. Anti-locust activities and support to the Disaster Early Warning System are not included in the analysis as it is difficult to quantify their benefits. Therefore, the NPV and IRR obtained represent lower bound estimates.

Financial Analysis of Rice Intensification Subprojects

5. The main objective of the financial analysis was to examine the financial viability of the main farm model that the project supported through Subcomponent A.1 irrigation and market access infrastructure. The analysis focuses on the rice intensification subprojects because it was the focus of the project. To achieve this objective, the analysis prepared representative financial crop models for one region from each of the project’s two areas.

6. Project areas. Zone 1 (locust-affected zones) includes small-scale irrigated schemes in districts that have already been affected by locusts and drought and where agricultural productive capacity needs to be restored, expanded, and made more resilient and sustainable. These schemes are in Itasy, Bongolava, Menabe, West Vakinankaratra, West Amoron’i Mania, Haute Matsiatra, and specific areas in Ihorombe. Bongolava was chosen to represent the regions of Zone 1.

7. Zone 2 (drought-affected breadbaskets) comprises three large, highly productive irrigated rice schemes in northwestern (Marovoay in Boeny Region), central east (Alaotra), and northern Madagascar (Andapa) that have been affected by drought and whose strategic food supply capacity must be maintained to prevent future production losses. The three irrigation schemes provide livelihoods to tens of thousands of farmers and, at appraisal, supplied an estimated 100,000 tons of rice to the national market. Sava was chosen to represent Zone 2.

8. The analysis assesses incremental net benefits of typical beneficiaries by comparing benefits derived in the ‘without project’ (WOP) scenario to those derived in the ‘with project’ (WP) situation. The analysis used the annual farm gate prices of rice and other crops. Prices were converted to U.S. dollars using the national exchange rate (US$1 = MGA 3,200). The models were conducted for a period of 20 years, at a discount rate of 10 percent to reflect the opportunity cost of capital in Madagascar. The evaluation criteria are the NPV of incremental net benefits over 20 years and discount rate of 10 percent and IRR based on discounted incremental net benefits over 20 years. The typical crop models were developed for rice. The rice model is assessed for 0.25 ha of cultivation (average rice area per household in the area).

9. Benefits. In the WP situation, the financial analysis assumes one tangible benefit of the project, mainly increased rice productivity because of two main factors. First, through the intensification activities of Subcomponent A.1, the project provided the beneficiaries with a technical package made of improved inputs (fertilizers and improved seeds) and productive capital (agricultural equipment). Beneficiaries in Zone 1 received the package for free, whereas the beneficiaries in Zone 2 had to contribute to the package to receive a subsidy. The subsidy was designed to last for three growing cycles/years, with a decreasing rate (80 percent, 50 percent, and 20 percent of the value of the technical package). Second, through the irrigation activities of Subcomponent A.1, smallholder farmers and their associations had better access to

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

water for irrigation. The paddy price was assumed to be MGA 800 per kilogram. Table 5.1 summarizes the assumptions of the financial analysis.

10. Costs. In addition to the production costs, it is assumed that beneficiary smallholder farmers paid an upfront fee (MAPER—contribution provided before the implementation of the rehabilitation works) of MGA 19,000 (US$5.93) for the initial rehabilitation costs and a recurrent maintenance fee equal to 10 percent of the MAPER.

11. In the WOP situation, the smallholder farmers are assumed to use traditional growing practices, leading to lower yields and not benefiting from enhanced access to irrigation or improved technologies (seeds and fertilizers) and agricultural equipment.

Table 5.1. Assumption of the Farm-level Financial Analysis Bongolava Sava WOP WP WOP WP Rice yield (tons per ha) 3.60 4.90 6.50 8.20 Rice area (ha) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 MAPER (MGA) 0.00 19,000 0.00 19,000 Source: PIU/BVPI.

12. Financial results. All models are financially profitable with a positive NPV and an ERR higher than the opportunity cost of capital. The rice intensification subproject seems more profitable in Bongolava (78 percent), compared to Sava (16 percent). In addition, these investments generate an NPV of MGA 0.72 million (US$225.15) in Sava, and MGA 1.19 million in Bongolava (US$371.78). The higher returns observed in Bongolava are consistent with decreasing returns to the project interventions, which is expected: the higher returns are observed in areas with lower baseline yield levels. The results are summarized in table 5.2.

Table 5.2. Summary of Financial Crop Budgets for Rice Intensification Subprojects Bongolava Sava NPV (MGA, millions) 1.19 0.72 NPV (US$, millions) 371.78 225.15 ERR (%) 78 16 Source: Author’s calculations.

Economic Analysis of the Activities of Component A

13. As stated earlier, the economic analysis will look at all the activities of Component A except the locust control and Disaster Early Warning System activities because the benefits from these two activities are difficult to quantify. The analysis assesses incremental net benefits by comparing benefits derived in the WOP scenario to those derived in the WP situation.

14. Economic benefits. In the WP situation, the economic analysis assumes the following main benefits:

(a) Increased paddy yield. This is because of (i) improved access to water in irrigated areas, (ii) increased use of improved seeds and inputs in subproject areas because of the rice intensification activities, and (iii) avoided loss of irrigated area because of watershed

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management. For rice fields located in the subproject areas (that is, benefited from improved irrigation, improved seeds, and fertilizers), it is assumed that the project’s distribution of rice seeds might help carry forward the rice production activity for the next four years following the project closing until the vigor of the seeds kept aside from production in the next season is seriously eroded. It is also assumed that the irrigation infrastructure will remain operational during this same period. Therefore, rice yields are assumed to experience only a 1 percent annual decrease for a period of four years following the project closure because of reduced use of inputs (excluding seeds). Starting from the fifth year following the project closure, yields are assumed to experience a 2 percent annual decrease because of a depleted stock of improved seeds, lack of access to inputs, and a decreased access to water because of a decreased maintenance of the irrigation infrastructure. It is also assumed that the irrigated area will start to gradually decrease (4 percent annual decrease) starting from the fifth year following the project closing because of decreased efforts by the WUAs for the maintenance of the irrigation infrastructure.

(b) It is also assumed that paddy yields will increase for those smallholders who benefited from land certificates. First, beneficiaries are assumed to increase their propensity to invest in soil and water conservation measures in the plot devoted to rice—their main staple crop—and reallocate their labor to the rice plot, resulting in a 5 percent increase in yields as found in Ali, Alemu, and Deininger et al (2011)13 and a systematic review by Lawry et al (2014).14 The analysis thus represents a conservative estimate of net benefits, because the income effects of investments in high-value crops would be much higher. The analysis assumes that the increased productivity takes place for all the recipients of the land certificates.

(c) Increased revenue because of the production of crops benefiting from the development of off-season irrigation and from the reduction in nutrient depletion in the hills (tanety). It is assumed that after project closing, in addition to growing rice, smallholders will continue growing other crops promoted by the crop diversification activities (maize, peanut, cassava, sweet potatoes, green beans, yams, and groundnuts). However, the yields of these crops are assumed to gradually decrease by 1 percent annually from 2019 to 2022 and by 2 percent from 2023 to 2038 because of a decreased access to inputs, fertilizers, and water (similar to the assumptions made in the case of rice intensification described in (a). In addition, it is assumed that the area devoted to these crops gradually decreases (4 percent annual decrease) reflecting the decreased uptake of these crops observed during project implementation.

15. Table 5.3. 5.3 shows the yield assumptions for rice yields and the other diversification crops.

13 Deininger, K., D. A. Ali, and T. Alemu. 2011. “Impacts of Land Certification on Tenure Security, Investment and Land Market Participation: Evidence from Ethiopia.” Land Econ. 87 (2): 312–334. 14 Lawry, S, C. Samii, R. Hall, A. Leopold, D. Hornby, and F. Mtero. 2014. “The impact of Land Property Rights Interventions on Investment and Agricultural Productivity in Developing Countries: A Systematic Review.” Campbell Systematic Reviews.

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Table 5.3. Assumed Rice Yields and Irrigated Area in the WP Situation Indicator 2015 2016–2018 2019–2022 2023–2038 Rice yields (tons/ha) Irrigated rice subproject areas 4.0 5.89 1% annual 2% annual decrease decrease Irrigated rice outside of subproject 2.5 3.24 3.24 2% annual areas decrease Rainfed rice 2.0 2.00 2.00 2.00 Off-season irrigated rice 2.5 3.24 3.24 2% annual decrease Yields of other crops Sweet potatoes 8.0 8.00 1% annual 2% annual decrease decrease Maize 5.0 5.00 1% annual 2% annual decrease decrease Peanuts 0.8 0.80 1% annual 2% annual decrease decrease Cassava 7.0 7.00 1% annual 2% annual decrease decrease Green beans 2.3 2.30 1% annual 2% annual decrease decrease Yams 8.0 8.00 1% annual 2% annual decrease decrease Ground nuts 0.7 0.70 1% annual 2% annual decrease decrease Irrigated area Decrease in irrigated area (%) 0 0 0 4 Decrease in area with other crops (%) 0 0 10 4 Source: PIU/BVPI and Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database and author’s assumptions.

16. In the WOP situation, it is assumed that the smallholders will continue growing rice for only one season per year, using traditional practices; with yields equal to 3.24 tons per ha in irrigated areas and 2 tons per ha in nonirrigated areas. In addition, it assumed that the irrigated area gradually decreases (at a rate of 10 percent per year) because of the lack of maintenance (regular maintenance and maintenance following cyclones) and the already highly degraded irrigation infrastructure. The price of paddy rice is assumed to be US$250 per ton (MGA 800,000 per ton).

17. Economic costs. The economic costs assumed in the WP situation is composed of (a) the contributions of the project and beneficiaries to the subprojects in irrigated perimeters; (b) the cost of rehabilitation works and MAPER collected from the beneficiaries; the O&M contribution of the beneficiaries, and a fraction of the costs of Component D (Project Management) that is proportional to the cost of Component A (minus the cost of the locust control and the Disaster Early Warning System). Incremental recurrent costs are assumed to be the additional maintenance costs for the rehabilitated irrigation infrastructure. In the project areas, the annual rehabilitation costs have been estimated by hypothesis to be equal to the amounts collected by the beneficiaries during the project lifetime for O&M. The MAPER has been assumed to be paid every 20 years. The calculations assume a real discount rate of 10 percent and a total life of public irrigation investments of 25 years. The exchange rate is assumed to be US$1 = MGA 3,200.

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18. NPV and IRR. Overall, the activities of Component A were efficient. They generated US$51.24 million in NPV, with an ERR of 24.7 percent. A sensitivity analysis shows that the ERR varies from 16.2 percent to 24.7 percent, and the NPV varies from US 6.12 $ million to US$51.24 million, as shown in table 5.4.

Table 5.4. Sensitivity Analysis for the Economic Analysis of the Activities of Component A Assumption NPV ERR (%) Annual decrease in yields of paddy rice and other crops in irrigated areas, 5 years following project closure 2% 51.24 24.7 10% 18.93 20.9 15% 6.12 17.7 Annual decrease in irrigated areas five years following project closure 4% 51.24 24.7 10% 44.03 24.0 20% 36.51 23.0 Paddy rice price (US$/t) 250 51.24 24.7 200 34.85 20.7 150 18.46 16.2 % beneficiaries with increased yield owing to land tenure security 100.0 51.24 24.7 50.0 49.79 24.4 0.0 48.33 24.1 Source: Author’s calculation.

Economic and Financial Analysis of the Activities of Component B

19. Component B provided a basic safety net to the poorest families in selected project areas, through CFW activities or CCTs. Few months before project closure, an exit strategy was devised by the project to ensure a smooth transition for the beneficiaries of the CCT and CFW activities. This transition strategy is called the Fond de Soutien, which provided beneficiaries with additional cash to set up small income- generating activities or invest in productive assets. This section will describe the EFA of the CFW and CCT activities.

20. Economic benefits of the safety net activities. In the WP situation, the economic analysis assumes the following main benefits:

(a) Increased per capita consumption because of the CFW activities. The CFW activities created short-term employment opportunities for the 57,591 beneficiaries in the areas affected by the weather crises, mainly locust invasion. A randomized IE of the CFW activities estimated that the annual per capita consumption of the project beneficiaries increased by (172,000 AR; US$53.75) (See annex 11 for the list of IEs conducted for the project). The IE also found a decreased poverty rate and decreased food insecurity among the project beneficiaries. In addition, the CFW activities created productive assets for the communities.

(b) Increased school enrollment and therefore adult wages because of the CCT activities. As part of the CCT activities, a vulnerable group of 5,831 households received bimonthly cash transfers, conditional on the use of health, nutrition, and/or other locally available services.

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The program took place in 8 communes and 54 Fokontany of the district of Betafo, Vakinakaratra region. An independent IE showed that children in beneficiary households were 7.9 percentage points more likely to be enrolled in school compared to those in comparison households. In Madagascar, the estimated returns to one extra year in primary and secondary school are 5 percent and 12 percent, respectively.15 In addition, it is assumed that only 69 percent of children entering first grade complete five years of primary school (ENSOMD 2012–2013)16, and only 15.8 percent of the children complete secondary school.17 Other benefits of the CCT were reported by the IE (decreased child labor, increased child health, and improved food security), but they will not be quantified because of data limitations.

(c) Increased income because of multiplier effect of CCT. Because of the time frame of the IE which took place immediately after the end of the CCT activities, it is not possible to measure the multiplier effect (that is, dollar of income generated for each dollar of cash received). However, an extensive literature documented this effect among liquidity constrained households. For example, the PROCAMPO Program in Mexico had a multiplier effect in the range of 1.5 to 2.6.18 For this EFA, a multiplier effect of 2 is assumed.

Table 5.5. Key Assumptions of the Economic Analysis of Component B CCT Activities Assumptions Incremental primary school enrollment rate 7.9 % Average number of children younger than 12 per 4 household Per capita income in the project area (US$) 187.5 Age for starting work (years) 18 Return to primary education (%) 5 Return to secondary education (%) 12 Completion rate of primary (%) 40 Completion rate of secondary (%) education 50 Multiplier effect 2 CFW activities Incremental annual consumption (US$) 53.57 Source: IEs of the project and project documents.

21. Economic costs of the safety net activities. The economic costs assumed in the WP scenario are composed of the costs of implementing the CFW and CCT activities and a fraction of the costs of Component D (Project Management) that is proportional to the cost of component B (minus the cost of Fond de soutien). The calculations assume a real discount rate of 10 percent, a total life of public irrigation investments of 25 years. The exchange rate is assumed to be US$1 = MGA 3,200.

22. NPV and IRR. Overall, the activities of Component B were efficient. They generated almost US$7.21 million in NPV with an ERR of 14.78 percent. A sensitivity analysis shows that the ERR varies from

15 Nguyen, Trang. 2008. "Information, Role Models, and Perceived Returns to Education: Experimental Evidence from Madagascar." Unpublished manuscript 6. 16 Madagascar National Survey on Monitoring the Millennium Development Goals (2012-2013) 17 Education Policy and Data Center extraction of Demographic and Health Survey dataset. https://www.epdc.org/. 18 Sadoulet; http://www.ifpri.org/publication/cash-transfer-programs-income-multipliers.

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13.62 percent to 14.78 percent, and the NPV varies from US$4.98 million to US$7.21 million, as shown in table 5.6.

Table 5.6. Sensitivity Analysis for the Economic Analysis of the Activities of Component B

Assumption NPV (US$, millions) ERR (%) Return to secondary education % 12 7.21 14.78 0 7.15 14.75 Multiplier effect 2 7.21 14.78 1.5 6.16 14.18 1 5.11 13.55 Annual decrease in consumption following Project closing 0% 7.21 14.78 1% 6.04 14.20 2% 4.98 13.62

Economic and Financial Analysis of Project

23. Combining the results of the EFA of Component A (minus anti-locust and Early Warning System activities) and Component B (minus the Fond de Soutine) yields an NPV of US$58.45 million and an ERR of 21.7 percent. The results remain robust to changes in the assumptions shown in table 5.7. The ERR varies between 15.7 percent and 21.9 percent, and the NPV varies between US$13.32 million and US$58.45 million.

Table 5.7. Sensitivity Analysis for the Economic Analysis of the Activities of the Project Assumptions NPV ERR (%) Annual decrease in yields of paddy rice and other crops in

irrigated areas, 5 years following project closure 2% 58.45 21.9 10% 26.14 18.6 15% 13.32 16.3 Annual decrease in irrigated areas five years following project closure 4% 58.45 21.9 10% 51.24 21.3 20% 43.71 20.4 Paddy rice price (US$/t) 250 58.45 21.9 200 42.06 19.0 150 25.67 15.7 % beneficiaries with increased yield owing to land tenure security 100.0% 58.45 21.9 50.0% 56.99 21.7 0.0% 55.54 21.4 Return to secondary education % 12 58.45 21.9

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Assumptions NPV ERR (%) 0 58.39 21.9 Multiplier effect 2 58.45 21.9 1.5 57.40 21.8 1 56.35 21.6 Annual decrease in consumption following project closing 0% 58.45 21.9 1% 57.28 21.8 2% 56.22 21.7

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

ANNEX 6. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS

Comments from the BVPI/PIU

I. Rectification de certains chiffres présentés : 1. Page 2 : Tableau "Restructuration et/ou Financement additionnel"  Date : mettre 07-juin-2016 au lieu de 07-juin-2018

2. Page 12 – Point 18  Zone PUPIRV : "… Les modalités d'intervention dans ces zones étaient les mêmes que celles dans la Zone 1" au lieu de Zone 2.

3. Page 12 – Point 19  Report de la date de clôture de 4 mois du 28 février 2018 au 30 juin 2018 au lieu de 20 juin 2018.

4. Page 18 – Point 35  Les 14 650 bénéficiaires (dont 44,7% de femmes) représentent la totalité des bénéficiaires et non dans la zone 2 seulement.

5. Page 46 – Tableau "Principaux produits par composante"  Pour les activités liées au foncier, mettre 55 759 de parcelles ayant reçu des certificats ou titres fonciers (pas forcément des Certificats) au lieu 55 579.

Dans l’Annexe : Page 44 – Annexe 1 : "Cadre des Résultats et Principaux produits" Pour l’indicateur "Nombre de rapport d’avancement périodique", le Projet a soumis depuis quinze (15) Rapports de Suivi Financiers (RSF) depuis le début jusqu’au deuxième trimestre 2018. Le tableau ci-après présente les dates de soumission des RSF à la Banque Mondiale.

N°RSF PERIODE Date d'envoi 15 RSF 2 eme trimestre 2018 16/08/2018 14 RSF 1er trimestre 2018 16/05/2018 13 RSF 4 eme trimestre 2017 16/02/2018 12 RSF 3 eme trimestre 2017 16/11/2017 11 RSF 2 eme trimestre 2017 14/08/2017 10 RSF 1er trimestre 2017 15/05/2017 9 RSF 4 eme trimestre 2016 15/02/2017 8 RSF 3 eme trimestre 2016 15/11/2016 7 RSF 2eme trimestre 2016 15/08/2016 6 RSF 1er trimestre 2016 13/05/2016 5 RSF 4 eme trimestre 2015 15/02/2016 4 RSF 3 eme trimestre 2015 13/11/2015 3 RSF 2 eme trimstre 2015 15/08/2015

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N°RSF PERIODE Date d'envoi 2 RSF 1er trimestre 2015 21/05/2015 1 RSF 4 eme trimstre 2015 20/02/2015 L’objectif de 16 rapports n’a pas été atteint du fait du retard du démarrage effectif par rapport à la date de mise en vigueur du crédit.

1. Page 51 – Annexe 3 : "Coût du Projet par composante" Pour le taux de décaissement, il serait plus juste de se référer aux montants réellement MOBILISABLES par le Projet, du fait des variations des taux de change (DTS – USD et USD – MGA). En effet, suivant les chiffres du "Client-Connection", le total du crédit n’a plus été 65 millions d’USD depuis mi-2015 ; comme mentionné dans le "Rapport d’achèvement de l’Emprunteur" – page 97, le crédit mobilisable n’a été que de 58 933 206,00 USD à la date du 04 octobre 2018. Il est à noter que la dépréciation du crédit mobilisable a obligé le Projet à annuler un certain nombre d’activités de réhabilitation de PI victimes de dégâts cycloniques. Le tableau ci-après présente la situation du crédit du Projet (sur Client Connection de la Banque Mondiale) au 10 décembre 2018.

Allocations (USD) Cat. Réalisations au 10/12/18 Dépréciée 1a 4 572 348,00 3 583 236,98 1b 0,00 0,00 1c 11 593 662,22 12 327 461,62 1d 1 984 825,78 1 986 202,80 S/T "2" 18 150 836,00 17 896 901,40 2a 37 246 623,92 36 948 873,03 2b 834 107,12 789 425,78 2c 2 377 620,96 2 136 856,55 S/T "2" 40 458 352,00 39 875 155,36 3 0,00 0,00 4 0,00 0,00 DA-A 0,00 487 908,77 DA-B 0,00 -15 793,72 TOTAL 58 609 188,00 58 244 171,81 Taux 99,38%

II / Commentaires : La partie Malagasy est de même avis pour cette notation « satisfaisante » du projet Nous sommes d’accord aux différentes appréciations données à l’ensemble du projet : composantes, réalisations et atteintes des objectifs. Nous pouvons retenir de ce projet, et il a été démontré par l’évaluation qu’avec des documents existants d’évaluations des dégâts déjà préparés et de structure existante au niveau du ministère

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comme le Programme BVPI appuyé par des consultants, la réalisation de projet d’urgence comme PURSAPS est possible.

Comments from the FID/PIU

Madame,

Après lecture du rapport préliminaire de l'ICR PURSAPS, nous vous demandons de trouver ci-après les commentaires de la part de FID:

Dans la page 21, le nombre de ménages bénéficiaires ACT noté est de 59 591 au lieu de 57 591. Par contre, ce chiffre 57 591 est présenté dans les paragraphes ci-dessous.

Dans la page 22: le nombre de ménage bénéficiaires TMC présenté dans ce rapport préliminaire est de 5 807 au lieu de 5 831 ménages. Ce chiffre ( 5 807) est reporté dans la page 47 avec une mention qu'il s'agisse toutes des femmes alors que le nombre de femmes TMC communiqué dans le projet de rapport d'achèvement est de 5 320 ( on a mentionné que les bénéficiaires du programme TMC sont en majorité des femmes)

Mais dans la page 61, il est de nouveau présenté que le nombre de ménages bénéficiaires TMC est de 5 831.

Dans la page 61: il est mentionné l'intervention du TMC Betafo au niveau de 55 fokontany au lieu de 54 fokontany.

Veuillez trouver ci-joint le rapport préliminaire dans lequel nous avons coloré en jaune ces observations.

Bonne réception.

Cordialement.

FID

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

ANNEX 7. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY)

Project Documents

• PAD on a Proposed Credit in the Amount of SDR 42.3 million (US$65 million equivalent) to the Republic of Madagascar for an Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project, February 10, 2014.

• Financing Agreement.

• Restructuring datasheet. Report No. RES20476.

• Restructuring Paper on a Proposed Project Restructuring of Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project, approved on February 10, 2014 to the Republic of Madagascar. Report No. RES27207.

• Restructuring Paper on a Proposed Project Restructuring of Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project, approved on February 10, 2014 to the Republic of Madagascar. Report No. RES28666.

Aide Memoires

• Implementation Support Mission, September 2014

• Implementation Support Mission, March 2015

• Implementation Support Mission, November 2015

• Implementation Support Mission, November 2016. Midterm review

• Implementation Support Mission, January 2017

• Implementation Support Mission, June 2017

• Implementation Support Mission, March 2018

ISRs

• June 2014

• January 2015

• June 2015

• December 2015

• April 2016

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• September 2016

• December 2016

• April 2017

• August 2017

• May 2018

• June 2018

Documents from Borrower/Implementing Agency

• PURSAPS - quantitative evaluation report, ALTEC Madagascar, May 2018

• PURSPAS- evaluation by the beneficiaries, SAVAIVO, December 2018

• Analyses of the indicators of Component A (PURSAPS/BVPI), PHRD Implementation Unit (Excel spreadsheets)

• Analyses of the indicators of Component B (PURSAPS/FID), PHRD Implementation Unit (Excel spreadsheets)

• Analyse de la performance du Fond de Soutien

Other Documents

• Madagascar Rural and Environment Sector Review, World Bank, December 18, 2013

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

ANNEX 8. TERRACING ACTIVITIES

Terracing Pilot

1. The project implemented a terracing pilot to (a) improve the existing watershed management practices (to protect the watersheds), (b) improve the efficiency of irrigation and drainage, and (c) promote crop diversification. This pilot was implemented in November 2017 following a visit to Rwanda, where terracing was successful.

2. Rice producers in the highlands (Vakinankaratra, Amoron’i Mania, Haute Matsiatra, and the North of l’Ihorombe) already practice terracing because of the small size of the rice fields in the low lands. This traditional system consisted in successively discharging water over the terraces. However, this had three major disadvantages: (a) it led to more soil erosion, (b) the water supply is poorly controlled, and (c) the water flow leads to the leaching of the nutrients and fertilizers, mainly for the plots located at the top of the terrace.

3. The project conducted the following activities:

• Development of contoured hills from top to bottom to recover the maximum cultivable area. The slope of the terraces is built in the opposite direction of the hill to avoid erosion. This development was implemented by the beneficiary communities following the HIMO system to increase their ability to duplicate it. A nongovernmental agency was contracted by the project to supervise and monitor the works, while a mobile operator was responsible for the payment of workers.

• Design and installation of water storage and distribution systems, as well as evacuation of excess water allowing the efficient management of resources. The technical studies were conducted by service providers.

• Establishment of a professional organization in charge of the infrastructure and capacity- building activities.

4. The terracing activities were implemented in three areas:

• Site of Ampatora, Fokontany Mitongoa, Rural Commune of Andrainjato Est, District Lalangiana, and Haute Matsiatra Region

• Site Ampasina, Fokontany Vohimarina, Rural Commune of Alakamisy Ambohimahazo, District of Fandriana, and Amoron’i Mania Region

• Site of Ambalavato, Fokontany Trangaina, Rural Commune of Ivato, District of Ambositra, and Region of Amoron’i Mania

5. This activity was successful. Beneficiaries were highly satisfied with this activity for the following reasons: (a) no erosion was observed even after the severe storms and Cyclone Ava, (b) water management is highly efficient, and (c) the most important benefit is the ability to use fertilizers, which allows the beneficiaries to grow different types of crops. The DRAE was particularly satisfied with its

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

involvement in this activity and is confident of its ability to take over the implementation after project closure, which is reassuring with regard to sustainability. It could also serve as a model for other projects such as the GEF Sustainable Landscape Management Project.

Figure 8.1. Terracing activities

Terracing at Amoroni’I Mania Storage basin. Water source is located upstream and the water is used to irrigate the terraces

On demand irrigation from the storage basin Horticultural production irrigated on the terraces Source: ICR mission.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

ANNEX 9. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION

1. Changes to the Results Framework. First restructuring: (a) an increase in the target for the PDO indicator area provided with irrigation and drainage services (ha) and number of project beneficiaries, and for the intermediate result indicator clients who have received agricultural services promoted by the project—these changes reflect the reallocation of funds toward the expansion of the irrigation activities; (b) a decrease in the target for the intermediate result land parcels with use or ownership rights recorded as a result of the project to reflect the scaling down of these activities; and in the intermediate result area restored or re/afforested to reflect the elimination of the cash-for-trees program and shift of the related funds to support the additional rehabilitation work; and (c) elimination of the intermediate results-level indicator related to communal rehabilitation of small-scale infrastructure because of the elimination of the cash-for-trees pilot program.

2. Second restructuring. (a) an increase in the target for the four PDO indicators, and for the two intermediate results of the social safety net activities (Person-days of employment created, Number of families included in the beneficiary registry)—these targets were underestimated at appraisal; this was because of the emergency nature of the project that prompted the preparation team to be conservative; (b) a further decrease in the target for the intermediate result land parcels with use or ownership rights recorded as a result of the project to account for the slow implementation pace and remaining lifespan of the project; and (c) elimination of the intermediate results level indicator 2 related to land parcels with use/ownership rights recorded because of project, of which percent female.

3. Third restructuring did not introduce any changes to the Results Framework.

Revised components:

4. Adjustments to Component A include the following:

• Restructuring 1. An increase in the budget allocations for the rehabilitation and maintenance works for the small dams and irrigation infrastructure and agriculture intensification activities, including the promotion of nutrition-enhancing crops under Subcomponent A.1. Rapid delivery of agricultural services and rehabilitation of essential irrigation and market access infrastructure

• Restructuring 2. Provision of additional resources for the rehabilitation of additional irrigation schemes

• Restructuring 1. The elimination of the cash-for-trees program

• Restructuring 1. Reduction of the budget allocations for the CFW program and the support to land registration activities, both under Subcomponent A.2. Protecting infrastructure investments by improving watershed and land management and climate resilience

5. Adjustments to Component B include (Restructuring 3) a reallocation of SDR 332,508 (US$447,000 equivalent) from expenditure category 1(c) CFW under Part B(a) of the project to category 1(d).

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6. Adjustments to Component D (Restructuring 1). An additional US$410,000 has been added to the component, increasing the total component cost from US$8.80 million to US$9.21 million. The additional funds intended to support higher project management costs associated with the implementation of the increased scope of activities under Component A and contribute to better project performance.

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

ANNEX 10. SYNERGIES BETWEEN THE ACTIVITIES OF COMPONENTS A AND B

1. Map 10.1 shows the districts of implementation of Component A (colored in yellow), Component B (colored in green), and the districts where the activities of the two components overlapped through the CFW program (colored in orange). The regions where the two components overlapped are Amoron’I Mania, Bongolava, Haute Matsiatra, Ihorombe, Itasy, Vakinankaratra, Sava, and Menabe.

Map 10 1. Synergies between the Activities of Components A and B

Source: PIU

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

ANNEX 11. SUMMARY OF THE IMPACT EVALUATIONS AND ASSESSMENTS OF THE PROJECT

Report 1. Quantitative evaluation of the PURSAPS, ALTEC, June 2018

1. This report describes a desk review in combination with key stakeholder interviews to qualitatively assess the achievements of the project.

Report 2. PURASPS: Beneficiaries assessment, Savaivo, September 2018

2. This report evaluates the project based on the perceptions of the beneficiaries. The methodology consisted in adopting a two-stage sampling strategy to select subprojects and POs for interviews. The respondents were sampled from the following regions: Vakinankaratra, Amoron’i Mania, Haute Matsiatra, Ihorombe, Bongolava, Alaotra, Boeny, Itasy, Sava, and Analamanga. A total of 421 subprojects were sampled (sampling rate of 12 percent). In addition, 100 POs that were not part of the project were interviewed to serve as a comparison group. Direct field observations to assess activities that are physically visible were conducted and the fieldwork were complemented by a review of the literature.

Table 11.1. Evaluation Sample Region # of Beneficiary Other Beneficiaries # of PO Non- # of Individuals POs beneficiaries Benefiting from FID Interventions (CFW and CCT) Alaotra Mangoro 59 11 6 – Amoron'i Mania 20 8 4 38 Analamanga 9 1 – – Boeny 22 15 10 – Bongolava 7 8 6 56 Haute Matsiatra 22 7 2 67 Ihorombe 13 6 – 36 Itasy 25 7 3 93 SAVA 41 19 7 40 Vakinankaratra 40 20 4 402 Total 258 102 42 732

Report 3. Quantitative IE of the PURSAPS - Component A managed by the BVPI, ALTEC, June 2018

3. This report presents the findings of a quantitative IE of the activities of Component A. The evaluation uses a quasi-experimental design, with 318 households randomly selected from the list of beneficiaries of the project and 318 households randomly selected from areas that were not part of the project. The evaluation uses a combination of regression analyses and descriptive statistics to analyze the impact of the project.

Table 11.2. Evaluation Sample Region # Beneficiaries #Non-beneficiaries Alaotra 55 56 Mangoro

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

Region # Beneficiaries #Non-beneficiaries Amoron'i Mania 55 60 Boeny 54 58 Bongolava 58 53 Itasy 54 58 Vakinankaratra 58 53 Total 334 338

Report 4. PURSAPS: Findings from the Randomized IE of the CFW Program, PowerPoint Presentation of the Gender Innovation Lab of the World Bank, September 2018

4. This document presents the findings of a randomized IE of the CFW program implemented by the FID under Component B. A total of 123 Fokontany were randomly selected from the universe of eligible Fokontany (237). Among these Fokontany, 2,494 households were randomly selected to form the treatment group (that is, benefit from the CFW program). Another 114 Fokontany were randomly selected as a comparison group, and 2,510 households were randomly selected from these Fokontany to serve as the comparison group. A baseline survey was conducted from November 2015 to March 2016, and an endline survey took place mid-2018. The impact of the project was assessed by comparing the outcomes of the individuals in the control group to those in the treatment group.

Report 5. PURSAPS: Findings from the IE of the CFW Program, GERCO, September 2018

5. This report presents the findings of a quantitative IE of the CFW program of both the PURSAPS and PUPIRV. The evaluation uses a quasi-experimental design, with 2,016 households in 126 treatment Fokontany, and 2,016 additional households in 126 comparison Fokontany. The sample covers 17 regions: Amoron'i Mania, Analamanga, Androy, Anosy, Atsimo Andregana, Atsimo Atsinanana, Atsinanana, Betsiboka, Boeny, Diana, Haute Matsiatra, Ihorombe, Menabe, Sava, Sofia, Vakinankaratra, Vatovavy, and Fitovinany.

Report 6. PURSPAS: IE of the CCT Program, proESSECAL, April 2018

6. This report assesses the impact of the CCT program implemented by the FID as part of Component B. The evaluation covers 55 Fokontany of the Betafo district. The sample size is 1,795 households, with 89 households with mother leaders, 1,150 beneficiary households, and 555 non-beneficiary households. The impact of the project is assessed by comparing the outcomes of beneficiaries to those of the non- beneficiaries. The evaluation also uses a propensity score analysis approach.

7. This report is a qualitative assessment of the performance of the livelihood grants component implemented at the end of the project. Household surveys and focus group discussions were implemented among 150 Fokontany (selected from the 382 Fokontany benefiting from this activity). A total of 2,777 households were surveyed, including 2,525 households who benefited from the CFW activities, and 252 households who benefited from the CCT program.

Table 11.3. Sample

CFW CCC Total # of interviewed households 2,525 252 2,777 Total number of beneficiaries 42,776 5,807 48,583

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The World Bank Madagascar Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514)

CFW CCC Total Sampling rate (%) 5.90 4.34 5.72

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