Swiss Tourism in the Age of Climate Change - Vulnerability, Adaptive Capacity, and Barriers to Adaptation
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Swiss tourism in the age of climate change - vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and barriers to adaptation THÈSE NO 5506 (2012) PRÉSENTÉE LE 18 octobre 2012 À LA FACULTÉ DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT NATUREL, ARCHITECTURAL ET CONSTRUIT LABORATOIRE DE RECHERCHES EN ÉCONOMIE ET MANAGEMENT DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT PROGRAMME DOCTORAL EN ENVIRONNEMENT ÉCOLE POLYTECHNIQUE FÉDÉRALE DE LAUSANNE POUR L'OBTENTION DU GRADE DE DOCTEUR ÈS SCIENCES PAR Cecilia Matasci acceptée sur proposition du jury: Prof. E. Gnansounou, président du jury Prof. Ph. Thalmann, directeur de thèse Dr B. Abegg, rapporteur Dr P. de Haan van der Weg, rapporteur Prof. M. Rebetez, rapporteur Suisse 2012 Contents i Acknowledgements This thesis would not have been possible without the help of many people and institutions. I would in particular like to thank Philippe Thalmann for having offered me this wonderful occasion, for his trust, his support, and his help all along this thesis. I am also very grateful to the members and the president of the jury, Bruno Abegg, Martine Rebetez, Peter de Haan van der Weg, and Edgard Gnansounou, who made me the honor and the pleasure to accept this task. Many warm thanks also to the REME people, current and past, I would in particular like to thank Camille Gonseth for the shared work, the interesting input and discussions; and to Juan-Carlos Altamirano-Cabrera for having been there at the beginning of my thesis. Alex, André, Anne-Kathrin, Beat, Bertil, Christina, Claudine, Frank, Gaëlle, Gisèle, Huanqing, Marc, Martin, Mike, Philippe, Ronal, Santosh, Sophie, Yann, and last but not least our administrator Laurence Fonjallaz! Thank you all so much for your cheerfulness, for the beautiful moments spent together, in addition to your precious feedback on this work! A big thank you also to the people who came to the REME under the civil service scheme and the trainees that participated in this work and in other related projects: thanks in particular to Roger Bear, Antoine Thalmann, Alexandre Anibal, Nico Barawid, and Etienne Thalmann. Thank you Nico for the proofreading of this work! All my gratitude goes out also to Gio- vanni Rivera and Khaled Ouafi for the development of SWIDCHI website. I would also like to take the opportunity to express sincere thanks to the NCCR Climate project for the founding and the wonderful coordination. My warm thanks go as well to ClimAlpTour; and in particular the Swiss collaborators Christophe Clivaz, Dominik Siegrist, Markus Schuckert, Marut Doc- tor, Romano Wyss, Susanne Gessner, and Tobias Luthe for having taken me on board, for all their support, and their help. Many additional thanks to Jürgen Kropp and the PIK Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities group for their welcome in Pappelallee and for the beautiful times in Potsdam. I owe my deepest gratitude to Sabine Perch-Nielsen, Sylvia Kruse, Therese Lehmann Friedli, Anne Holsten, and Luís Costa for the interesting discussions and the shared information; to the many insti- tutions and people that provided me data about their research. I would in particular like to thank Bas Amelung, Hugo Raetzo, Jahan Wenger, Laurent Vanat, Martin Schuler, Massimiliano Zappa, Nadine Hilker, and Sven Kotlarski. Without the participation of the 13 experts that took part in the Multicriteria Analysis, my study would have lacked very important information. Thank you for your time and for agreeing to take part in this gruesome exercise! All my gratitude also goes out to the 18 stakeholders that participated in the face-to-face and phone interviews and the 566 that took part in the online survey. Your help has been extremely useful! And finally my deepest gratitude goes to all the people with whom in one way or another I have crossed paths these past few years. It would be difficult to thank everybody, but I would like to give a special thanks to Unipoly, which managed to take a bit of my time but that gave me so much in return. Enormous thanks to my parents, Reghi and Pol. Reghi also for proofreading this work. Thank you both for your encouragement and support! And least but not last a deep THANK YOU to Cate, Joh, Sév, Jérôme, Alisa, Eli, Giuli, Sabsab, Hanna, Kia, Fanny, Ema, and Giuba for your feedback, the correction of the translations, for reading the text and simply for existing! To all of you, my most sincere thanks! Contents iii Glossary AC Adaptive Capacity ACQWA Assessing Climate Impacts on the Quantity and quality of WAter AHP Analytical Hierarchy Process AMSL Above Mean Sea Level ARE Federal Office for Spatial Development BLN Federal Inventories of Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Im- portance CARAVAN Climate Change: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptive capac- ity for the Nordic countries CCHydro Climate Change and Hydrology CEAT Urban and Regional Planning Community CEO Chief Executive Officer CIA Average thermal comfort CID Daytime thermal comfort CHNE Northeastern Switzerland CHS South of the Alps CHW Western Switzerland CO2 Carbon dioxide CR Consistency Ratio DDPS Federal Department of Defense, Civil Protection, and Sport DETEC Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy, and Communi- cations DHM Digital Height Model DJF December January February E Exposure ECE Economic Commission for Europe ELA Equilibrium-Line Altitude ELA0 ELA for which the steady state of the glacier equals zero EPFL Swiss Federal Institute of Technology of Lausanne ESPON European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion (previously called European Spatial Planning Observation Network) ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology of Zurich FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FDEA Federal Department of Economic Affairs FDF Federal Department of Finances FDHA Federal Department of Home Affairs FIF Research Institute for Leisure and Tourism FOEN Federal Office of the Environment FSO Federal Statistical Office GDP Gross Domestic Product GHGs Greenhouse Gases GIS Geographic Information System GLIMS Global Land Ice Measurements from Space GLM Fitting Generalized Linear Model GS GastroSuisse GWN Digital stream network HES-SO University of Applied Sciences Western Switzerland iv Content HS Hotelleriesuisse - Swiss Hotels Association HSR Institute for Landscape and Open Space, University of Applied Sciences Rapperswil HTW Institute for Tourism and Leisure Research, University of Applied Sciences IDHEAP Swiss Graduate School of Public Administration ILF Institute for Landscape and Open Space ILO International Labor Organization IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ITF Institute for Tourism and Leisure Research IUKB University Institute Kurt Bösch JJA June July August MAB Man And Biosphere MCA Multicriteria Analysis MIADAC Modeling Sectoral Climate Change Policies: Mitigation, Adaptation, and Ac- ceptance MOVE Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe NCCR National Centre of Competence in Research NELAK New Lakes in Deglaciating High-mountain Areas: climate-related develop- ment and challenges for sustainable use NOGA General Classification of Economic Activities NRP National Research Program OcCC Advisory Body on Climate Change OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development P Precipitation PCA Principal Component Analysis PESETA Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on boTtom-up Analysis PGIS Participatory Geographic Information System PI Potential Impacts PIK Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PRI Primary Surfaces Layer RI Random Consistency Index REME Research Group of Economics and Environmental Management RMS Cablecars Switzerland S Sensitivity Ss Sunshine SAB Groupement suisse pour les regions de montagne SAC Swiss Alpine Club SAJA Swiss Alps Jungfrau-Aletsch S.D. Standard deviation SECO State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO/Tourism State Secretariat for Economic Affairs – Tourism division SGH Swiss Society for Hotel Credit SNSF Swiss National Science Foundation SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios ST Southern Ticino STV-FST Swiss Tourism Federation SWIDCHI SWIss Database of climate CHange Impacts Swisstopo Federal Office of Topography Contents v SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats TCI Tourism Climate Index TI Tourism Intensity TSA Tourism Satellite Account UNEP United Nations Environment Program UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNIGE University of Geneva UNWTO World Tourism Organization V Vulnerability VACCIA Vulnerability Assessment of ecosystem services for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation W Wind appreciation WEF World Economic Forum WMO World Meteorological Organization WP Working Package WS Workshop WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Contents vii Contents Acknowledgements i Glossary iii Résumé xi Abstract xiii 1 General introduction 1 1.1 Goals of this research 1 1.2 Main hypotheses developed in this thesis 3 1.3 Structure of the thesis 6 2 Background information 9 2.1 Tourism: an important sector for Swiss society and economy 9 2.2 The contribution of Swiss tourism to climate change 11 2.3 The impacts of climate change on tourism in Switzerland 12 2.3.1 Changes in weather patterns 17 2.3.2 Positive and negative changes of climate variability for tourism activities 19 2.3.3 Snowpack reduction 20 2.3.4 Melting glaciers 22 2.3.5 Permafrost melting – rockfall 24 2.3.6 Increase in the frequency and intensity of floods, debris flows, landslides, and falling rocks