MEMORANDUM

To: Interested Parties From: 1892 Polling Re: CA-25 Special – Mike Garcia Leads Christy Smith 43-39%

March 3 Primary Ballot Results

In the primary ballot on March 3, Republican Mike Garcia finished with 25.4% of the vote, securing a head-to-head with Democrat Christy Smith on May 12. Garcia bested Steve Knight, the former congressman for CA-25, by more than 8%. Garcia was successful in making the runoff despite Democrat groups likes the DCCC and House Majority PAC spending nearly $1 million in the primary to prevent him from winning.

Methodology

1892 conducted a poll of 500 likely voters for the May 2020 special general election for California’s 25th congressional district. The poll was conducted of 100% live interviewers with 50% of the calls to cellphones. The margin of error is ±4.38%.

State of the Race

1. Winning: Republican Mike Garcia leads Democrat Christy Smith 43-39%.

2. Fighter Pilot: Garcia is already identified as a former fighter pilot for the United States Navy which drives his winning ballot share and a positive image.

CA-25 Congressional Ballot

69% Garcia 70% 60% 43% 50% 39% Garcia Smith 40% 26% 30% Smith 10% 20% Und. 3% 10% Und. 0% Overall *Agree: Garcia Former Fighter Pilot

Among the 50 percent of voters who already agree that Mike Garcia was a fighter pilot for the U.S. military, Garcia leads overwhelmingly 69-26%.

Image & Military Background

Mike Garcia’s favorability image is a very positive +20% net favorable.

Mike Garcia Image 62% Fav 60% 50% 38% Fav 27% 40% 23% 18% No Op 30% 15% Unfav 13% Unfav NHO 20% No Op 3% 10% NHO 0% Overall *Agree: Garcia Former Fighter Pilot

Similar to the ballot, among voters who are aware of Garcia’s background as a fighter pilot, his image is twice as positive at +39% net favorable. Still, 49 percent of likely voters say they do not know whether Garcia was a fighter pilot, leaving substantial upside for Garcia’s ballot share and favorability image.

Agree/Disagree: Mike Garcia was a fighter pilot for the U.S. military. 49% 60% 50% Agree Don't Know 50% 40% 30% 20% 1% 10% Disagree 0%

About 1892

1892 has performed polling on winning races in all corners of the country, at every level of politics – from races for President, Governor, Senate, and Congress including extensive experience in California. They also have conducted polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee, National Republican Senatorial Committee, and the Congressional Leadership Fund.