TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: TOM EMMER, NRCC CHAIRMAN DATE: NOVEMBER 10, 2020 RE: HOUSE GOP GAINS & 2020 ELECTORAL SUCCESS
OVERVIEW
Despite nearly every major media outlet and election pundit predicting double-digit GOP losses, House Republicans defied the odds.
Currently, Republicans have netted five seats. This number will likely grow as votes are certified. Republicans project to increase our Conference from 197 on Election Night to between 208-212 members – just shy of a majority.
Just how dominant was House Republicans’ performance?
Republicans won 28 of the 29 most competitive House races as projected by Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.
HOW WE DID IT
From Day One of this cycle, Chairman Emmer made it a priority to recruit the most diverse slate of candidates ever, and now, Republicans are welcoming a record-breaking new member class. Every House Republican candidate who flipped a Democrat-held seat is a woman, a minority, and/or a veteran.
Thus far, 13 new Republican women are joining the House Republican Conference next year – breaking the record of nine new women set in 2010. Moreover, six new minorities and 11 new veterans will join House Republicans.
Chairman Emmer also established from the outset of this cycle that this election would be a choice between Republicans’ message of freedom versus Democrats’ radical socialist agenda.
The results speak for themselves as Democrats failed to have an answer for their socialist agenda. Soon-to-be former Congresswomen Donna Shalala and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell specifically cited the NRCC’s message tying them to socialism as the reason they lost.
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TARGET DISTRICTS
The NRCC strategically targeted 55 districts which were built around President Trump’s strength at the top of the ticket and where Republicans won congressional races as recently as the 2014 and 2016 cycles.
Republicans captured their first targeted pickup on December 19, 2019 when Rep. Jeff Van Drew rejected the new socialist Democrat majority and joined the Republican caucus.
Republicans netted their second targeted pickup on May 12, 2020 when Hispanic fighter pilot Mike Garcia flipped CA-25 in a special election. This was the first time any Republican flipped a Democrat-held seat in California since Bill Clinton was President.
MI-03 became an additional flip opportunity district after Justin Amash left the Republican conference.
As of November 9, Republicans have held NJ-02, flipped MI-03 and flipped seven additional seats of the original 55 target districts. Republicans continue to hold leads in CA-25 and six additional original 55 target districts (CA-21, CA-39, CA-48, NY-11, NY-22 and UT-04).
Republican candidates in IA-02 and IL-14 are looking at potential recounts.
The NRCC spent more than $37 million in coordinated and independent expenditures across the sixteen districts that Republicans flipped or are currently leading. NRCC investments helped make these wins possible.
Overall the NRCC’s Independent Expenditure arm spent over $80 million supporting this diverse class of winning Republican candidates.
RECRUITMENT
The NRCC made it a goal to challenge Democrats in every district.
Republicans contested 423 of 435 districts (97.2%), exceeding the internal goal of at least 420 districts. In total, 1,271 Republicans filed to run in primary elections this cycle.
94 women, 75 minorities, and 108 veterans advanced from their primaries or conventions and were the Republican nominee in November.
In open Republican-held districts, the NRCC recruited new, diverse candidates and successfully held 32/35 seats.
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From these seats, 63% are either new female, racially-diverse or military veteran members. The NRCC did not target NC-02 or NC-06 after they were ordered by the NC state Supreme Court to be gerrymandered to safe Democrat seats.
The NRCC protected 97% of the 33 open Republican seats that were targeted.
Once all the races are called, House Republicans are expected to break the record of 25 Republican women in the House.
PATRIOT PROGRAM
The NRCC made a concerted effort from the outset of this cycle to identify targeted incumbent campaigns and work alongside them throughout the cycle to prepare them for victory.
The NRCC worked with these members to develop individualized campaign plans that established fundraising, grassroot and outreach metrics needed to win each of their districts. The 17 members who were part of the Patriot Program all exceeded previous campaign fundraising totals and records.
Most importantly, zero House Republican incumbents have lost this cycle.
THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE FOR SPEAKER PELOSI
Fifteen Democrats refused to vote for Nancy Pelosi for House Speaker at the start of the 116th Congress. With a significantly smaller margin this cycle, Speaker Pelosi will be hard pressed to find the votes she needs.
Even if Speaker Pelosi survives, one thing is clear: she will be doing so with an ungovernable majority that is the smallest in two decades.
Additionally, the radical socialist wing of the Democrat Party is not going quietly. Already Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has demanded every House Democrat move to embrace the most radical policies of their party including Medicare for All and the Green New Deal.
The public infighting we have seen play out over the last week will continue and vulnerable House Democrats will again be forced to own every radical policy their caucus puts forward.
With a successful blueprint to follow, Republicans are primed to retake the majority in 2022.
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