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2020 Election Analysis

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2020 Election Analysis Election2020 Analysis Current as of November 5, 11:00 a.m. TABLE OF CONTENT S 1 Introduction 2 117th Congress • Senate • House of Representatives • Reconciliation 3 Snapshot of Newly Elected Officials 4 Projected Committee Leadership 5 Committee Changes 6 Looking Toward 2022 INTRODUCTIO N While all election years are contentious to some degree, this one has been particularly so. Whatever the final outcome, post-election days result in raw feelings on one side and elation on the other. It is our hope that winners and losers alike – and all those who rooted for them – react with grace, a commitment to healing, and a firm resolve to maintain our Nation’s revered tradition of peaceful transition. Arizona: Holds a recount if the margin is < 0.1%. Georgia: No automatic recount; candidates can request a recount if the margin is < 1% Today many seats are still being Michigan: A candidate can petition for a recount decided, and with the razor thin if they allege “fraud or mistake in the canvass of the votes" within two days of the completion of the margins in many cases, we are keeping canvass of votes. A recount is automatic if the a close eye on the races that are yet to margin is equal or < 2,000 votes. Nevada: Any candidate can request a recount be decided, while digesting the decided and is responsible for the costs unless they are results and implications. With the declared the winner as a result of the recount. North Carolina: A candidate can request a possibility of vote recounts in the recount if the margin is < 0.5%, or 10,000 votes, presidential elections, please note the whichever is less. Pennsylvania: Recount if the margin is < 0.5%. laws that dictate the that action in the Wisconsin: A candidate can request a recount states in question. within three days following completion of the canvass of votes if the margin is < 1%. He or she can appeal to the state circuit court within five days of As we learn more in the coming hours, completion of the recount. days, and possibly weeks, the bipartisan team at Prime Policy Group is prepared to help you navigate to navigate these unchartered waters. This analysis will be updated as we receive new information, so check back often for the most current state of play. And, as always, please reach out with any questions. 117th Congress Senate Control of the Senate remains up in the air. As of this writing, control of the U.S. Senate remains up in the air and may remain that way until early 2021 when both Georgia Senate seats appearing to be headed to runoffs, which will be held on January 5. Right now, Democrats have picked up 2 seats, and with Republicans knocking off the incumbent in Alabama, the chamber’s margin is currently 48 R – 48 D. Democrats were able to handily beat Sen. Cory Gardner (R) in Colorado, and in Arizona, Mark Kelly handed Sen. Martha McSally (R) her second Senate race loss in as many years. There are still 4 races that have yet to be called, including races in Georgia, North Carolina, and Alaska. The special election in Georgia is headed towards a runoff with Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) facing Rev. Raphael Warnock. The second Senate race in Georgia remains uncalled, but Sen. David Perdue (R) has fallen below the 50% + 1vote needed to avoid a January race, and the race looks to be headed to a runoff because the outstanding votes left to come are from heavily Democratic counties. House of Representatives As anticipated, Democrats maintained control of the House of Representatives, despite many unanticipated losses; and a projected blue wave failed to materialize. Republicans were able to win back a number of Key Dates Democrats will now begin the process of districts that they had lost in 2018, and, as of preparing for the 117th Congress, with a now, the split is 206 – 190 with 39 races still number of key dates set. Freshman orientation, uncalled. Among the notable results were the which is currently scheduled to be in-person defeats of House Agriculture Chairman Colin will be held from November 12 to November Peterson (MN) and first term congresswomen 21 and from November 29 to December 5. House Leadership Elections will be held on Abby Finkenauer (IA), Donna Shalala (FL), Xochitl November 18 and 19, with the Steering Torres Small (NM), and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Committee being constituted after those (FL). Republicans successfully defended a elections, sometime between November 20 number of seats in Texas and also recaptured and before the week of the November 30. The South Carolina’s 1st District, while significantly Steering Committee must vote of committee increasing the number of Republican women chair recommendations before the whole caucus votes on the selections the week of who will serve in the chamber. Altogether, House November 30. Republicans had a very good night that few outside of the staunchest Republicans were expecting and have picked up a net of 6 seats. Leadership Going into election night, Democrats did not expect any challenges to the current leadership team, and Speaker Pelosi was expected to easily retain the gavel next Congress. While still unlikely, there may be renewed conversation about Democratic messaging and changes in leadership. One of the few bright spots for House Democratic leadership was the Caucus Chairs win by Rep. Ben Ray Luján (NM), who was elected Committee Chair to the Senate. Luján, who has served as Assistant Congressional Black Joyce Beatty (OH) to the Speaker, will likely be replaced by Rep. Caucus Katherine Clark (MA). Raul Ruiz (CA)/ Congressional Hispanic Nanette Barragán (CA)/ Caucus Veronica Escobar (TX) New Dem Leadership Pramila Jayapal (WA) Congressional Progressive As a reminder, the New Dem Coalition now and/or Caucus consists of 100+ members and is likely to again Jamie Raskin (MD) grow its ranks next Congress. For the first time in New Dems Suzanne DelBene (WA) the Coalition’s history, there are active, Blue Dogs Anthony Brindisi (NY)** competitive races for its vice-chair positions. *Traditionally the CPC has had two co-chairs but may move to a sole Chairmanship this Congress There are seven members running for the four **Brindisi is currently behind in his still uncalled race openings: Rep. Peters (CA-52), Rep. Kuster (NH- 02), Rep. Bera (CA-07), Rep. Plaskett (VI-At-large), Rep. Houlahan (PA-06), Rep. Davids (KS-03) and Rep. Sherrill (NJ-11). Races are fluid but Bera, Plaskett and Houlahan seem to currently have an edge with the final seat likely to come down to Kuster or Peters. Lame Duck As the current CR expires on December 12, there will be a need to address government funding during the Lame Duck. We anticipate a CR that will run through the beginning of next year, likely expiring in March. There seems to be a working assumption that while additional attempts will be made during lame duck to pass a bipartisan COVID relief package, there is may not be one – although Sen. McConnell indicated today his hope to get something passed before the end of the year. Additionally, with control of the Senate remaining in flux, perhaps through early January, it remains to be seen what either party would agree to handle during a Lame Duck term. Looking Forward to the 117th Congress During the first 100 days, the House will spend time on many of the same message bills that saw Floor time the first quarter of 2019. Expect H.R. 1, the For The People Act, to again be the first bill to hit the floor. The voting rights package (H.R. 4) is likely to be the second bill to move to the floor and the police reform package will also see priority consideration. The idea is to use House floor time to message on issues with broad Caucus support. Reconciliation While a Democratic Senate now seems at best a 50/50 probability, if Democrats prevail and the chamber flips, all eyes will turn to the potential use of the budget which allows for an expedited process to pass tax and/or spending policies. The process known as “reconciliation” requires majority rule in both House and Senate in order to pass identical budget resolutions. Used twenty-five times since 1980, budget reconciliation allows for an expedited process to pass the congressional budget resolution, and any spending or revenue provisions that may be attached. Most recently, Republicans used reconciliation to pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017. For this process to work, the consensus budget contains “reconciliation instructions” which give instructions to specified committees to meet certain spending or revenue/tax targets through corresponding increases or decreases. Reconciliation instructions give committees specific numerical targets to meet within a set timeframe. While the budget resolutions can assume policy objectives to correspond to the fiscal instructions they cannot compel committees to adopt those specific policies to meet its targets. House and Senate instructions to committees must be corresponding. For example, the Senate cannot instruct the Agriculture Committee to meet a target while the House instructs the Energy and Commerce Committee. Why is this important? Legislation goes through regular order at the committee level, i.e. Reconciliation has, at committee that receive “instructions” draft and mark up a bill to meet times, been leveraged to their targets. If multiple committees are given targets and report bills, move controversial the Budget Committee knits together the individual committee work legislation – like the into one package for the Parliamentarian’s review and subsequent Affordable Care Act – that floor consideration.
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