Quick viewing(Text Mode)

Post-Election Analysis December 2020

Post-Election Analysis December 2020

Post-Election Analysis December 2020

Holland & Knight President

President President-Elect Donald J. Trump Joseph R. Biden

Trump: 232 Biden: 306 2 Sou rce: Bloomberg, as of 11:00 AM EST on Dec. 3, 2020 New House of Representatives

Democrats: 222 Republicans: 208 Uncalled races: 5

Sou rce: Bloomberg, as of 11:00 AM EST on Dec. 3, 2020 3 Key House Race Results

. o FL-15 Scott Franklin* (R) defeated Alan Cohn (D) o AZ-01 Tom O’Halleran* (D) defeated Tiffany Shedd (R) o FL-16 * (R) defeated Margaret Good (D) o AZ-02 * (D) defeated Brandon Martin (R) o FL-26 Carlos Gimenez (R) defeated Debbie Mucarsel-Powell* o AZ-06 * (R) defeated (D) (D) DR DR . o FL-27 (R) defeated * (D) o CA-10 * (D) defeated Ted Howze (R) . o CA-21 (R) defeated TJ Cox* (D) DR o GA-06 Lucy McBath* (D) defeated (R) RD o CA-25 * (R) defeated Christy Smith (D) o GA-07 (D) defeated Rich McCormick (R) o CA-39 (R) defeated * (D) DR . CA-45 * (D) defeated Greg Raths (R) o o IL-06 * (D) defeated (R) CA-48 (R) defeated * (D) DR o o IL-13 Rodney Davis* (R) defeated Betsy Londrigan (D) CA-49 * (D) defeated Brian Maryott (R) o o IL-14 Lau ren Underwood* (D) defeated (R) . . CO-06 * (D) defeated Steve House (R) o o IA-01 (R) defeated (D) DR . Connecticut o IA-02 Rita Hart (D) vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) Not called o CT-05 * (D) defeated David Sullivan (R) o IA-03 * (D) defeated David Young (R) . o FL-07 * (D) defeated Leo Valentin (R) Winners in BOLD, asterisk indicates incumbent o FL-13 * (D) defeated Anna Paulina Luna (R) Results from Bloomberg, as of 11:00 AM EST on Dec. 3, 2020 4 Key House Race Results (Cont.)

. . KS-03 * (D) defeated Amanda Adkins (R) o o NJ-03 * (D) defeated David Richter (R) . o NJ-05 * (D) defeated Frank Pallotta (R) o ME-02 * (D) defeated (R) o NJ-07 Tom Malinowki* (D) defeated Jr. (R) . . New MI-08 * (D) defeated Paul Junge (R)  o o NM-02 (R) defeated * (D) D R MI-11 * (D) defeated Eric Esshaki (R) o . . Minnesota o NY-11 (R) vs. * (D) Not called MN-02 * (D) defeated Tyler Kistner (R) o o NY-19 Antonio Delgado* (D) defeated Kyle Van De Water (R) MN-07 Michelle Fischback (R) defeated Collin Peterson* (D) DR o o NY-22 (R) vs. * (D) Not called . o NY-24 * (R) defeated Dana Balter (D) . MT-AL (R) defeated Kathleen Williams (D) . . o NC-02 Deborah Ross (D) defeated Alan Swain (R) RD RD o NV-03 * (D) defeated Daniel Rodimer (R) o NC-06 (D) defeated Lee Haywood (R) o NV-04 * (D) defeated Jim Marchant (R) o NC-08 Richard Hudson (R) defeated Patricia Timmons- Goodson (D) . o NC-11 (R) defeated (D) o NH-01 Chris Pappas* (D) defeated Matt Mowers (R) Winners in BOLD, asterisk indicates incumbent Results from Bloomberg, as of 11:00 AM EST on Dec. 3, 2020 5 Key House Race Results (Cont.)

. .  o OH-01 * (R) defeated Kate Schroeder (D) o UT-04 (R) defeated Ben McAdams* (D) D R o OH-10 * (R) defeated Desiree Tims (D) . . o VA-02 * (D) defeated Scott Taylor (R) o OK-05 (R) defeated * (D) DR o VA-07 * (D) vs. Nick Freitas (R) . . o PA-01 Brian Fitzpatrick* (R) defeated Christina Finello (D) o WA-08 * (D) defeated Jesse Jensen (R) o PA-07 * (D) defeated Lisa Scheller (R) o PA-08 * (D) defeated Jim Bognet (R) o PA-10 * (R) defeated Eugene DePasquale (D) o PA-17 * (D) defeated Sean Parnell (R) .  o SC-01 (R) defeated Joe Cunningham* (D) D R . o TX-07 * (D) defeated Wesley Hunt (R) o TX-22 (R) defeated Sri Preston Kulkarni (D) o TX 23 (R) defeated Gina Ortiz Jones (D) o TX-24 (R) defeated Candace Valenzuela (D) vs. Winners in BOLD, asterisk indicates incumbent 6 o TX-32 * (D) defeated Genevieve Collins (R) Results from Bloomberg, as of 11:00 AM EST on Dec. 3, 2020 New U.S. Senate

Republicans: 50 Democrats: 48 GA Runoffs: 2

Winners in BOLD, asterisk indicates incumbent Results from Bloomberg, as of 11:00 AM EST on Dec. 3, 2020

7 Key Senate Races

. : (R) defeated Sen. * (D) DR . Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan* (R) defeated Al Gross (D) R . Arizona Special: (D) defeated Sen. Martha McSally* (R) RD . Colorado: (D) defeated Sen. * (R) RD . Georgia: Sen. * (R) vs. (D) Runoff Jan. 5, 2021 . Georgia Special: Sen. * (R) vs. (D) Runoff Jan. 5, 2021 . Iowa: Sen. * (R) defeated (D) R . Kansas: Roger Marshall (R) defeated Barbara Bollier (D) R Winners in BOLD, asterisk indicates incumbent . : Sen. Mitch McConnell* (R) defeated Amy McGrath (D) R Results from Bloomberg, as of 11:00 AM EST on Dec. 3, 2020 . Maine: Sen. * (R) defeated Sara Gideon (D) R . Michigan: (D) defeated John James (R) D . Minnesota: * (D) defeated Jason Lewis (R) D . Montana: Sen. * (R) defeated Steve Bullock (D) R . New Hampshire: Sen. * (D) defeated Bryant “Corky” Messner(R) D . North Carolina: Sen. * (R) defeated Cal Cunningham (D) R . South Carolina: Sen. * (R) defeated Jaime Harrison (D) R . Texas: Sen. * (R) defeated M.J. Hegar (D) R 8 Key Gubernatorial Race Results

Republicans: 27 Democrats: 23

• Delaware: Gov. John Carney Jr. (D) defeated Julianne Murray (R) • : Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) defeated Woody Myers (D) • Missouri: Gov. Mike Parson (R) defeated Nicole Galloway (D) • Montana: (R) defeated Mike Cooney (D) DR • New Hampshire: (R) defeated Dan Feltes (D) • North Carolina: Gov. Roy Cooper (D) defeated Dan Forest (R) • North Dakota: Doug Burgum (R) defeated Shelley Lenz (D) • Utah: Spencer Cox (R) defeated Chris Peterson (D) • Vermont: Gov. Phil Scott (R) defeated David Zuckerman • Washington: Gov. Jay Inslee (D) defeated Loren Culp (D) • West Virginia: Gov. Jim Justice (R) defeated Ben Salango (D)

Sou rce: Bloomberg, as of 11:00 AM EST on Dec. 3, 2020 9 State Attorney General Race Results

Aside from the 10 races detailed below, Maine’s next state legislature and the governors of New Hampshire, , and American Samoa are due to appoint new AGs.

. Indiana . Pennsylvania . Todd Rokita (R) defeated Jonathan Weinzapfel (D) . Josh Shapiro* (D) defeated Heather Heidelbaugh (R) . Missouri . Utah . Eric Schmitt* (R) defeated Richard Finneran (D) . Sean D. Reyes* (R) defeated Greg Skordas (D) . Montana . Vermont . (R)defeated Ralph Graybill (D) vs. . T.J. Donovan* (D) defeated H Brooke Paige (R) . North Carolina . Wash ington . Josh Stein* (D) defeated Jim O’Neill (R) . Bob Ferguson* (D) defeated Matt Larkin (R) . . West Virginia . Ellen Rosenblum* (D) defeated Michael Cross (R) . Patrick Morrisey* (R) defeated Sam Brown Petsonk (D)

Winners in BOLD, asterisk indicates incumbent

10 Control of State Legislatures

• Despite a concerted effort by Democrats to flip state legislatures, only two chambers changed control, both in New Hampshire. The House and Senate both went from Democratic control to Republican control. New Hampshire’s legislature often changes control and has flipped in six of the last eight elections. • Democrats were hoping to deliver wins in multiple statehouses – Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas. • Control of state legislatures will be particularly critical this year due to redistricting following the decennial census. Most states redraw their electoral maps in their state legislature, and a few use nonpartisan or bipartisan commissions to draw the lines.

Winners in BOLD, asterisk indicates incumbent Source: National Council of State Legislatures as of 10:00 AM EST on Nov. 16, 2020 Map is being updated as results are confirmed. States in gray are uncalled, with the exception of , which has a nonpartisan legislature. 11 The Lame Duck Session

. Unfinished Business . Important Dates

. Nov 9: Senate returned . COVID-19 Relief

. Federal Spending Bill . Nov. 16: House returned

. National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) . Nov 23-30: Thanksgiving

. Dec. 10: House target adjournment

. Dec. 11: Current continuing resolution expires

. Dec. 21: Senate target adjournment

12 2021 Legislative Priorities & Important Dates

. Priorities . Important Dates

. COVID-19 Relief Bill . Jan. 2021: 117th Congress convenes – calendars

. Stimulus including infrastructure funding expected to be released around Thanksgiving . Biden priorities . April 15, 2021: Congress is supposed to adopt a budget resolution by April 15 that presents a unified • COVID-19 Relief Bill and Comprehensive Plan view of priorities for both the House and the Senate; • Infrastructure bill there's no punishment for missing the deadline, which • Clean energy bill is often unmet • Corporate tax increase . Sept. 30, 2021: Last day of the fiscal year; all 12 • Minimum wage increase appropriations bills for FY2022 are supposed to be signed by then

13 COVID-19 Focus

• President-Elect Biden will first have to face a continuing public health and economic crisis related to COVID. • Federal fiscal stimulus and unemployment benefits (now expired) were critical to the economy's climb out of the coronavirus-induced shock. • Premature fiscal austerity could result in another slump in public-sector demand before private-sector demand fully recovers, which could, in turn, weigh heavily on GDP growth and weigh on credit quality across sectors, including state and local governments. • Legislators on Capitol Hill remain far apart in their views on what is needed. • COVID relief bills earlier this year added 4.7% to full-year GDP, with the potential to tack on another 3.1% next year, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. • Biden has proposed a plan that includes some elements we saw in the CARES Act, stimulus checks for qualified Americans, and enhanced unemployment benefits. • In addition, Biden has called for a four-year, $700 billion plan for federal procurement of U.S. manufactured goods – as part of a broader recovery effort. • Biden's action plan also includes additional reliefs such as: • More money for small businesses (no details on amount) • Emergency sick leave for everyone who needs it • Fiscal relief for states • Cover the cost of COVID-19 testing, treatment and a vaccine • Potential for a COVID-19 related stimulus package increased with Biden’s win. However, the magnitude and speed by which it passes Congress will depend on Senate control. 14 House Committee Leadership (expected)

Committee Chairman Ranking Member

Administration Rep. (D-CA) Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL)

Agriculture Rep. David Scott (D-GA) Rep. Glenn "GT" Thompson (R-PA)

Appropriations Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) Rep. (R-TX)

Armed Services Rep. (D-WA) Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL)

Budget Rep. John Y armuth (D-KY ) Rep. (R-MO)

Education & Labor Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA) Rep. (R-NC)

Energy & Commerce Rep. (D-NJ) Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA)

Ethics TBD, Rep. (D-FL) term limited TBD, Rep. (R-IN); Rep. retiring Financial Services Rep. (D-CA) Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC)

Foreign Affairs Rep. (D-NY) Rep. Mike McCaul (R-TX)

Homeland Security Rep. (D-MS) Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) or Rep. John Katko (R-NY)

15 House Committee Leadership (expected)

Committee Chairman Ranking Member

Intelligence Rep. (D-CA) Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH) or Rep. (R- OH) Judiciary Rep. (D-NY) Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH)

Natural Resources Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) Reps. (R-AR)

Oversight & Government Reform Rep. (D-NY) Rep. (R-KY )

Rules Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA) Rep. (R-OK)

Science, Space, & Technology Rep. (D-TX) Rep. Frank Lucas (R-OK)

Small Business Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-NY) Rep. (R-MO)

Transportation & Infrastructure Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR) Rep. (R-MO)

Veterans Affairs Rep. (D-CA) Rep. (R-IL)

Ways & Means Rep. (D-MA) Rep. (R-TX)

16 Senate Committee Leadership (expected)

Committee Chairman Ranking Member

Agriculture, Nutrition, & Forestry Sen. (R-AR) Sen. (D-MI)

Appropriations Sen. (R-AL) Sen. (D-VT)

Armed Services Sen. (R-OK) Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI)

Banking, Housing, & Urban Affairs Sen. (R-PA), Sen. Crapo moving to Sen. (D-OH) Finance Budget Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Sen. Grassley moving to Sen. (I-VT) Judiciary Commerce, Science, & Transportation Sen. (R-MS) Sen. (D-WA)

Energy & Natural Resources Sen. (R-WY ), Sen. Murkowski term- Sen. (D-WV) limited as Chair Environment & Public Works Sen. (R-WV), Sen. Barrasso Sen. (D-DE) moving to Energy & Natural Resources Finance Sen. (R-ID) Sen. (D-OR)

Foreign Relations Sen. (R-ID) Sen. (D-NJ)

17 Senate Committee Leadership (expected)

Committee Chairman Ranking Member

Health, Education, Labor, & Pensions Sen. (R-NC) or Sen. (R-KY ) Sen. (D-WA)

Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Sen. (R-OH) Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI)

Indian Affairs Sen. (R-AK) Sen. (D-HI)

Judiciary Sen. (R-IA) Sen. (D-CA)

Rules & Administration Sen. (R-MO) Sen. (D-MN)

Select Committee on Ethics Sen. (R-OK) Sen. (D-DE)

Select Committee on Intelligence Sen. (R-FL) Sen. (D-VA)

Small Business & Entrepreneurship Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY ) Sen. (D-MD)

Special Committee on Aging Sen. (R-SC) Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA)

Veterans Affairs Sen. (R-KS) Sen. (D-MT)

18 Generational Breakdown of Congress

• Headlining the generational gap in Congress is newly elected Representative Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.). Cawthorn and 30 others comprise the Millennial cohort in Congress. There will be 160 members of Gen. X and 296 Baby Boomers in the 117th Congress. The Silent Generation will be represented by 39 Congressmen and women. • The average age for house members in congress is 57.7 years old, while the average senator is 63.7 years of age. • There is greater than a 50-year gap between the nation's oldest lawmakers, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Rep. (R-Alaska) and the youngest, Rep.-elect Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.). Demographic Breakdown of Congress

• Though white men still maintain a majority in Congress, the next term will include a record 59 Black Americans. • Similarly, 65 representatives of Asian, Hispanic or Lation descent will serve in the 117th Congress. For the first time in Congressional history, three Korean-America women have been elected. Reps.-elect Michelle Steel (R-Calif.), Young Kim (R-Calif.) and (D-Wash.) will serve in the 117th Congress. • At least 121 women will serve in the House of Representatives. There is a potential for this number to expand in light of uncalled races. At least 26 women (pending Vice President-elect Harris’ replacement) will serve in the U.S. Senate. Get Connected

For continued analysis, please visit our Election Analysis Center on our website: https://www.hklaw.com/en/general-pages/election-analysis-center

Rich Gold Partner and Public Policy & Regulation Group Leader Washington, D.C. 202.457.7143 [email protected]

21 Thank You

Holland & Knight

Top View