2020 Election Preview The Landscape - Presidential
SWING STATES POLLING AVERAGES, ELECTORAL VOTES, AND CLOSING TIMES RACE TO
270 OHIO WISCONSIN POLL AVG: TRUMP +1 POLL AVG: BIDEN +6.5 POLLS CLOSE: 7:30 PM ET POLLS CLOSE: 8 PM ET ELEC VOTES: 18 ELEC VOTES: 10 MICHIGAN
POLL AVG: BIDEN +5
ADDITIONAL KEY STATE POLLING POLLS CLOSE: 8 PM ET ELEC VOTES: 16 IOWA (6): TRUMP +1.5
ARIZONA (11): BIDEN +1
GEORGIA (16): BIDEN +0.5 PENNSYLVANIA FLORIDA NORTH CAROLINA TEXAS (38): TRUMP +1 POLL AVG: BIDEN +3 POLL AVG: BIDEN +1 POLL AVG: TRUMP +0.5 POLLS CLOSE: 8 PM ET MINNESOTA (10): BIDEN +4 POLLS CLOSE: 7 PM ET POLLS CLOSE: 7:30 PM ET ELEC VOTES: 20 ELEC VOTES: 29 ELEC VOTES: 15 NEVADA (6): BIDEN +3.5 The Landscape - The Big Senate Races
STATE DEMOCRATIC CHALLENGER REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT POLLING AVERAGE GEORGIA RAPHAEL WARNOCK KELLY LOEFFLER WARNOCK +15.5 GEORGIA JON OSSOFF DAVID PERDUE OSSOFF +1 IOWA THERESA GREENFIELD JONI ERNST ERNST +2 MAINE SARA GIDEON SUSAN COLLINS EVEN MONTANA STEVE BULLOCK STEVE DAINES EVEN NORTH CAROLINA CAL CUNNINGHAM THOM TILLIS CUNNINGHAM +2.5 SOUTH CAROLINA JAIME HARRISON LINDSEY GRAHAM EVEN ARIZONA MARK KELLY MARTHA MCSALLY KELLY +6 COLORADO JOHN HICKENLOOPER CORY GARDNER HICKENLOOPER +9
IF BIDEN WINS, DEMOCRATS NEED TO WIN ANY 4 ABOVE FOR MAJORITY IF BIDEN WINS, REPUBLICANS NEED TO WIN ANY 6 ABOVE TO KEEP MAJORITY (5 IF BIDEN LOSES)
ABOVE ASSUMES SENATOR DOUG JONES LOSING IN ALABAMA WHERE HE IS A HEAVY UNDERDOG The Landscape - House Races In Play
CLICK THE DISTRICTS FOR COVERAGE ON EACH RACE DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN DISTRICT DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN DISTRICT TJ COX DAVID VALADAO CA-21 CHRISTINA HALE VICTORIA SPARTZ IN-05 ABBY FINKENAUER ASHLEY HINSON IA-01 HILLARY SCHOLTEN PETER MEIJER MI-03 RITA HART MARIANNETTE MILLER-MEEKS IA-02 DAN FEEHAN JIM HAGEDORN MN-01 COLLIN PETERSON MICHELLE FISCHBACH MN-07 JILL SCHUPP ANN WAGNER MO-02 XOCHITL TORRES-SMALL YVETTE HERRELL NM-02 KARA EASTMAN DON BACON NE-02 MAX ROSE NICOLE MALLIOTAKIS NY-11 AMY KENNEDY JEFF VAN DREW NJ-02 ANTHONY BRINDISI CLAUDIA TENNEY NY-22 JACKIE GORDON ANDREW GARBARINO NY-02 KENDRA HORN STEPHANIE BICE OK-05 DANA BALTER JOHN KATKO NY-24 BEN MCADAMS BURGESS OWENS UT-04 KATE SCHRODER STEVE CHABOT OH-01 HIRAL TIPIRNENI DAVID SCHWEIKERT AZ-06 EUGENE DEPASQUALE SCOTT PERRY PA-10 CHRISTY SMITH MIKE GARCIA CA-25 WENDY DAVIS CHIP ROY TX-21 BETSY LONDRIGAN RODNEY DAVIS IL-13 SRI PRESTON KULKARNI TROY NEHLS TX-22 CAMERON WEBB BOB GOOD VA-05 CANDACE VALENZUELA BETH CAN DUYNE TX-24
DEMOCRATS ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN THE HOUSE. VISIT HERE FOR ESTIMATES ON NUMBER OF SEATS THAT MAY BE GAINED. BOLD INDICATES INCUMBENT COUNTY TO WATCH RACE TO WATCH FOR PRESIDENTIAL RACE 7:00 PM ET POLL CLOSINGS CLICK THE GEORGIA CHECKBOXES TO VIEW SENATE STATE LEVEL RESULTS RACE ANALYSIS
OSSOFF VS PERDUE
POLLING ELECTORAL OFFICAL STATE VOTES RESULTS AVERAGE EVEN FLORIDA 29 PINELLAS COUNTY, FL GEORGIA 16 INDIANA 11 STORYLINES PART OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO ST. PETERSBURG KENTUCKY WILL WE SEE LONG VOTING LINES THAT IS ESSENTIAL TO WINNING FL. 8 AGAIN IN METRO ATLANTA COUNTIES LIKE FULTON AND COBB? SOUTH CAROLINA 9 FLIPPED FROM RED IN 2016 TO BLUE IN 2018. WILL THE "NEW SOUTH" MOVEMENT VIRGINIA 13 FOR DEMS EXTEND TO SOUTH PINELLAS HAS PREDICTED ALMOST CAROLINA AND GEORGIA? VERMONT 3 EVERY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SINCE 1980 (MISSED 2000). WILL MIKE BLOOMBERG'S $100 MILLION INVESTMENT IN FLORIDA PAY OFF? SIGNIFICANT MAIL-IN RETURNS NOTE: ALL POLL CLOSING TIMES INCLUDED IN THIS DOCUMENT ARE THE EARLIEST CLOSING EXPECTED. TIMES FOR EACH STATE. BECAUSE SOME STATES CROSS TIME ZONES, CERTAIN POLLING WILL JUST ONE OR BOTH OF GEORGIA'S PLACES REMAIN OPEN LATER. WE LISTED THIS WAY BECAUSE THE NETWORKS BEGIN TO SENATE CONTESTS GO TO A 1/5/21 REPORT THE EARLIEST RESULTS. ALSO WORTH WATCHING: SEMINOLE RUNOFF? COUNTY, FL COUNTY TO WATCH RACE TO WATCH FOR PRESIDENTIAL RACE 7:30 PM ET POLL CLOSINGS NORTH CAROLINA SENATE
RACE ANALYSIS
CUNNINGHAM VS TILLIS
POLLING ELECTORAL OFFICAL AVERAGE STATE VOTES RESULTS CUNNINGHAM
NORTH CAROLINA 15 + 2 NEW HANOVER COUNTY, NC OHIO 18 STORYLINES WILMINGTON, NC, THE COUNTY SEAT WEST VIRGINIA 5 HERE, IS ONE OF NC'S GROWING AND CAN CUYAHOGA COUNTY VOTE TOTALS DEMOGRAPHICALLY SHIFTING CITIES. AND TURNOUT MAKE OHIO CLOSE OR WILL TRUMP'S OVERWHELMING RURAL REPUBLICANS ARE WORKING TO ADVANTAGE THERE WIN OUT? DEFEND THEIR HISTORICAL ADVANTAGE IN THIS DISTRICT THAT IS CHANGING COULD CAL CUNNINGHAM WIN DESPITE MUCH LIKE OTHER AREAS OF THE SEXTING SCANDAL AND BEING KICKED SOUTH. OUT OF HIS HOME? PRESIDENT TRUMP MADE FINAL WEEK CAN BIDEN MAKE UP ANY GROUND IN TRIP TO WILMINGTON, AS HAVE TRUMP OHIO'S APPALACHIAN REGION? SURROGATES.
RETIREES IN THIS AREA COULD BE KEY TO UNDERSTANDING COVID IMPACT. COUNTY TO WATCH RACE TO WATCH FOR PRESIDENTIAL RACE 8:00 PM ET POLL CLOSINGS MAINE SENATE
ELECTORAL OFFICAL RACE ANALYSIS STATE VOTES RESULTS GIDEON VS COLLINS ALABAMA 9 POLLING CONNECTICUT 7 AVERAGE DELAWARE GIDEON 3 + 4 ILLINOIS 20 MACOMB COUNTY, MI KANSAS 6 STORYLINES OLDER, BLUE-COLLAR SUBURBAN DETROIT COUNTY THAT HAS PICKED THE MAINE 4 MAINE'S SECOND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT'S SINGLE ELECTORAL VOTE PRESIDENTIAL WINNER IN 8 OF THE LAST MARYLAND 10 WON'T DECIDE THE RACE BUT HAS BEEN 10 ELECTIONS. CONSIDERED A TOSS UP THIS CYCLE. MASSACHUSETTS 11 OBAMA WON MACOMB TWICE BEFORE REPUBLICAN ROGER MARSHALL AND TRUMP WON IN 2016. MICHIGAN DEMOCRAT BARBARA BOLLIER HAVE 16 BEEN VYING FOR AN OPEN SENATE SEAT THIRD MOST POPULOUS COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI IN KANSAS. IF BOLLIER WINS, WE MICHIGAN WITH MORE THAN 650,000 6 COULD SEE A WAVE ELECTION. VOTERS.
INCUMBENT SENATOR DOUG JONES (D- THIS COUNTY WILL SHOW WHETHER AL) LIKELY LOSES, BUT HE COULD BE THE MUCH STUDIED OBAMA-TRUMP BIDEN AG. FLIP VOTERS ARE STILL WITH TRUMP. COUNTY TO WATCH RACE TO WATCH FOR PRESIDENTIAL RACE 8:00 PM ET POLL CLOSINGS (CONTINUED) NEW JERSEY HOUSE (2) ELECTORAL OFFICAL STATE VOTES RESULTS
KENNEDY VS VAN DREW MISSOURI 10
NEW HAMPSHIRE 4 MORE ON THIS NEW JERSEY 14 RACE NORTH DAKOTA 3 BUCKS COUNTY, PA OKLAHOMA 7 STORYLINES 40 PERCENT OF VOTERS IN THIS KEY PENNSYLVANIA 20 SWING COUNTY HAVE REQUESTED IF PHILLY AND ITS SUBURBS COME OUT MAIL-IN BALLOTS SO THIS COULD BE A RHODE ISLAND 4 IN FULL FORCE FOR BIDEN, MOST COUNTY THAT WE ARE WATCHING FOR PUNDITS AGREE TRUMP CANNOT WIN. SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTH DAKOTA 3 WILL THEY? BUCKS IS THE CLOSEST TO A 50/50 CONTROL OF THE TEXAS STATE TENNESSEE 11 COUNTY OF THE PHILADELPHIA LEGISLATURE COULD BE IN PLAY FOR SUBURBS. DEMS TYPICALLY WIN THE FIRST TIME IN DECADES. TEXAS 38 NARROWLY. MISSOURI HAS ONE OF ONLY TWO (MT WASHINGTON, D.C. 3 IS THE OTHER) COMPETITIVE GOV RACES BUCKS HAS EXPERIENCED HIGHER THAN THIS CYCLE. POLLING SHOWS AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT AND COVID INCUMBENT REPUBLICAN GOV MIKE DEATHS COMPARED TO THE REST OF PARSONS UP BY 6 POINTS. THE COUNTRY. COUNTY TO WATCH RACE TO WATCH 9:00 PM ET POLL CLOSINGS FOR PRESIDENTIAL RACE ARIZONA SENATE
RACE ANALYSIS
ELECTORAL OFFICAL KELLY VS MCSALLY STATE VOTES RESULTS POLLING ARIZONA 11 AVERAGE KELLY COLORADO 9 + 6 LOUISIANA 8 MARICOPA COUNTY, AZ MICHIGAN 16 STORYLINES THE MAJORITY OF ARIZONA VOTERS LIVE NEBRASKA 5 INCUMBENT SENATORS GARY PETERS IN MARICOPA COUNTY WHICH IS (D-MI) AND TINA SMITH (D-MN) HAVE RAPIDLY GROWING. NEW MEXICO FOUND THEMSELVES TRAILING BIDEN'S 5 NUMBERS ON THE TOP OF THE TICKET. YOUNGER VOTERS IN MARICOPA ARE WILL THOSE RACES BE CLOSE? FUELING ARIZONA'S RECENT SHIFT LEFT.
EYES ON OMAHA: THE ONE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE AND REP. DON BACON'S LARGE MAIL-IN COUNTY AND ELECTION SEAT HAVE BOTH BEEN CONSIDERED OFFICIALS IN MARICOPA HAVE BEEN VERY CLOSE RACES. TRUMP VISITED ALLOWED TO PROCESS BALLOTS FOR LATE IN THE RACE. TWO WEEKS PRIOR TO ELECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN MORE ELECTION THE ONLY CHANCE MCSALLY MAY HAVE IS IF TRUMP CARRIES ARIZONA. POLLING NIGHT DATA IN MARICOPA THAN OTHER AVG SHOWS BIDEN UP 2 POINTS. CRITICAL COUNTIES. COUNTY TO WATCH RACE TO WATCH FOR PRESIDENTIAL RACE 9:00 PM ET POLL CLOSINGS (CONTINUED)
MINNESOtA HOUSE (7)
ELECTORAL OFFICAL PETERSON VS FISCHBACH STATE VOTES RESULTS MINNESOTA MORE ON 10 THIS RACE NEW YORK 29 NORTH DAKOTA 3 WAUKESHA COUNTY, WI STORYLINES SOUTH DAKOTA 3 IN ADDITION TO MAINTAINING OR GROWING HIS MARGINS IN RURAL WI, WISCONSIN 10 REP. COLLIN PETERSON, CHAIRMAN OF THE PRESIDENT TRUMP NEEDS TO WIN POWERFUL HOUSE AG COMMITTEE, IS WAUKESHA BIG TO HAVE A CHANCE OF FIGHTING FOR HIS POLITICAL LIFE IN NW MN. WYOMING REPEATING IN WI. 3 CAN PETERSON STILL FLIP REPUBLICANS WHO HAVE SUPPORTED HIM IN THE PAST? THE MILWAUKEE SUBURBS TYPICALLY WILL THE WI SUPREME COURT DECISION THAT DELIVER FOR REPUBLICANS. MAIL-IN BALLOTS CANNOT BE ACCEPTED AFTER ELECTION DAY EVEN IF POSTMARKED IF BIDEN CAN BLUNT TRUMP'S VOTE PRIOR COME INTO PLAY? HERE IT WILL BE WITH WOMEN.
FRESHMAN MAX ROSE (D-NY) IS IN A TIGHT NEARLY 100,000 MAIL-IN BALLOT RACE IN HIS RED STATEN ISLAND DISTRICT. CAN HE HOLD ONTO THE SEAT? REQUESTS IN WAUKESHA THUS FAR. COUNTY TO WATCH RACE TO WATCH 10:00 PM ET POLL CLOSINGS FOR PRESIDENTIAL RACE IOWA SENATE
RACE ANALYSIS
GREENFIELD VS ERNST ELECTORAL OFFICAL STATE VOTES RESULTS POLLING AVERAGE IDAHO 4 GREENFIELD IOWA 6 + 2 WASHOE COUNTY, NV MONTANA 3 STORYLINES HOME TO RENO, WASHOE IS NOW SPLIT NEVADA 6 NEARLY EVENLY ON VOTER DEMOCRATIC MONTANA GOVERNOR REGISTRATION. CLINTON NARROWLY OREGON DEFEATED TRUMP HERE IN 2016. 7 STEVE BULLOCK IS ATTEMPTING TO RUN FOR SENATE WHILE GOVERNOR OF A UTAH WASHOE HAS SEEN A MASSIVE INFLUX 6 STATE WITH RISING COVID CASES. WILL OF MAIL-IN BALLOTS FROM THAT DRAG HIM DOWN? DEMOCRATS.
CAN DEMOCRATS WIN A STATEWIDE REPUBLICANS ARE EXPECTED TO VOTE RACE IN MONTANA WITHOUT A IN LARGE NUMBERS HERE ON ELECTION LIBERTARIAN ON THE BALLOT TAKING DAY AND WE SHOULD HAVE AWAY REPUBLICAN VOTES? PRELIMINARY RESULTS.
CAN BIDEN PULL OFF A WIN IN IOWA WASHOE WILL BE A BIG TEST OF AFTER HIS "GUT PUNCH' 4TH PLACE REPUBLICANS' BET THAT DAY-OF- FINISH IN THE PRIMARY THERE? VOTERS CAN MAKE UP GROUND. The Prognosticators - Expert Predictions & Where to Track
COOK POLITICAL 538 REPORT PREDICTION MODELS POLLING AVERAGES RANKINGS FOR TOSS UP HOUSE REAL TIME PREDICTION METER SEATS, SENATE SEATS ,AND ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES RACE BY RACE ANALYSIS
VISIT VISIT
NY TIMES REAL CLEAR ELECTORAL COLLEGE POLITICS TOOL
UP TO DATE POLLING AVERAGES FOR ALL OF THE RACES THAT MATTER INTERACTIVE TOOL THAT ALLOWS USERS TO BUILD THEIR OWN ELECTORAL COLLEGE ROADMAP TO VICTORY
VISIT VISIT
POLITICO ELECTION RESULTS PAGE VISIT Election Night Follows - Which Handles to Watch
VISIT VISIT
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VISIT VISIT What Comes Next - Post-Election Counting and Deadlines FAQ
Q. WHICH STATES ARE DOING MAIL-IN BALLOTS? WHICH ARE NOT?
A. A FULL LIST OF CURRENT PRACTICES FOR ALL 50 STATES IS HERE
Q. GREAT, BUT WHEN CAN STATES ACTUALLY START COUNTING MAIL-IN BALLOTS?
A. A FULL LIST OF PRACTICES FOR ALL 50 STATES IS HERE
Q. OK, BUT WHAT ARE ELECTION OFFICIALS IN EACH STATE SAYING ABOUT HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO COUNT ALL THE VOTES?
A. IT DIFFERS FROM STATE TO STATE BUT HERE IS A GREAT COMPILATION OF ESTIMATES BY STATE OFFICIALS ALONG WITH MORE ON PROCEDURES.
Q. WHAT IS THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROCESS AFTER THE ELECTIONS?
A. THIS YEAR, THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE IS SLATED TO MEET AND VOTE ON DECEMBER 14, 2020. THE ELECTORAL COUNT ACT OF 1887 MANDATES THAT STATE GOVERNMENTS MUST RESOLVE VOTE COUNTING AND CONTROVERSIES SIX DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE MEETS AND VOTES. THIS YEAR, THAT DATE IS DECEMBER 8, 2020. THIS IS KNOWN AS THE "SAFE HARBOR" DATE. AFTER THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE HAS VOTED (AND ASSUMING TRUMP OR BIDEN GET THE 270 VOTES NEEDED), THE NEWLY ELECTED AND SWORN-IN 117TH CONGRESS (WHICH IS SWORN IN ON JANUARY 3, 2021), MUST COUNT THE ELECTORAL VOTES IN A JOINT SESSION.
Q. WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE IS A TIE OR THE PRESIDENT REFUSES TO CONCEDE?
A. CONVIENENTLY, MOUNUMENT HAS DONE A SEPERATE MEMO ON THESE TOPICS. YOU CAN FIND IT HERE.