Migration of Hanover´S Population. Spatial and Age-Selective Migration Patterns and Future Migration Potentials

Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu ZESZYTY NAUKOWE 2012 (245)

Monika Blaschke, Magdalena Kaiser City of Hanover

MIGRATION OF HANOVER´S POPULATION. SPATIAL AND AGE-SELECTIVE MIGRATION PATTERNS AND FUTURE MIGRATION POTENTIALS

Abstract: This study at fi rst attempts to identify today´s migration patterns of Hanover in-depth, both according to spatial patterns and to age groups of the population moving. In a second step then, basically based upon population projections, Hanover´s future migration patterns are estimated and possible consequences arising are identifi ed. Migration plays a very important role in Hanover´s urban development as it affects both the number and structure of its inhabitants. In almost every year the migration balance of Lower Saxony´s capital with its 527,000 citizens is positive. As the natural balance between births and deaths in Hanover is negative, shrinkage can only be avoided by migration gains. But not only is the total number of citizens infl uenced strongly by migration but also the composition of the population: large cities are especially attractive for young adults. Hanover has a strongly positive migration balance for people aged 18 to 24. On the other hand, with people aged between 30 and 49 years and with children, i.e. mainly families, Hanover has a negative migration balance as families tend to move into the surrounding area. Suburbanization has diminished in the past, though, and the City of Hanover makes great efforts to promote its attractiveness as a place of choice for families. Regarding the spatial migration patterns, Hanover gains inhabitants especially from Lower Saxony, former East Germany and from abroad. In the future Hanover´s migration potentials may shift. The decreasing number especially of young adults in the New Federal States could dry up this source by a remarkable degree. This may also account for Lower Saxony. As it is likely that its urban-rural migration balance will remain negative, Hanover could in the future be particularly dependent on young and qualifi ed immigration from abroad, albeit knowing that immigration is subject to fl uctuations, and requires policy of integration. Keywords: Hanover, migrations, immigration, migration patterns, migration potentials, population, population forecast.

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1. Introduction and purpose

In view of the fact that many German cities have a negative natural population balance and thus shrinkage is threatening immigration is of increasingly importance for many aspects of city development. There has to be detailed knowledge of today´s migration patterns to be able to judge current developments and to identify target groups. Moreover, a forward-looking urban development policy needs to be acquainted with likely future changes of the town´s migration patterns. This study tries to make a contribution to this knowledge concerning the City of Hanover.

Migrations of great importance for population and town development Migrations have a great infl uence on urban development. They affect the population fi gure as well as its age structure and ethnic composition. They give an indication of future migration potential and approaches to infl uence the population development. In the context of demographic change, this applies even more: because almost everywhere in Germany less people are being born than die, and thus the natural population balance is negative, population fi gures remain constant only if a net migration gain equalises the birth defi cits. Requirement for possible population growth therefore is that a migration gain is greater than a negative ratio of births and deaths.

Age selectivity of migration rejuvenates the population of the target regions Demographic change and migration are closely intertwined and act crucially on the spatial distribution of population. Especially with the prospect of a nationwide decreasing population and a decline in the number of children infl ow of people is a key potential of urban development. Migration gains especially in large German cities compensate birth defi cits there – with the opposite effect in the source regions elsewhere. The aging process in the target regions is dampened signifi cantly since migration is strongly age- selective: especially young adults move. Lasting migration gains from foreign countries lead to a changing ethnic composition of the population and an increase in the number of foreigners or people with immigration background. These tendencies are also valid for Hanover, the capital of Lower Saxony in the north of Germany. Based on data by the State Statistical Offi ce of Lower Sax- ony (Landesbetrieb für Statistik und Kommunikationstechnologie Niedersachsen (LSKN)), below the structure of migrations by age groups and by different spatial units over time is examined. This is also done with regard to the effects of migration on the city development and the strategic requirements that can be derived for urban development policies. Regular and targeted analysis of migration patterns is an important basis for infl uencing migration potential. Inner-city migration that does not cross the city boundaries of Hanover and only has small-scale effects on the population structure is not discussed here. A study on this subject has been recently published [Landeshauptstadt Hannover 2012a].

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2. Signiﬁ cance of migration for Hanover´s town development

The effects of migration on the population development of Hanover are analyzed by examining the population growth since 1987 as a whole and broken down by natural population development and migration development.

High population growth in Hanover by 30,000 people in the years after the German reuniﬁ cation Figure 1 shows Hanover´s population development since 1987. In this year a pro- longed population decline ended. Until 1994 the number of inhabitants strongly increased from 496,000 by 30,000 new residents to a peak of 526,000 citizens. The main reason for this positive development was high immigration. This was caused by the fall of the “Iron Curtain” with immigration of ethnic German immigrants („Aussiedler“) and of quota refugees from the former Soviet Union, also by an inﬂ ow of applicants for asylum (including people from former Yugoslavia) and migrants from former East Germany.

530,000

525,000 Population

520,000

515,000

510,000

505,000

500,000

495,000

490,000 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Figure 1. Development of number of inhabitants in Hanover from 1987 to 2011. Sta- tus: on 31–12 Source: Statistical Ofﬁ ce of Lower Saxony

Renewed population growth in Hanover since 2005 In the following years until 1999 the population decreased continuously to 515,000, but it remained signiﬁ cantly higher than at the starting level of 1987. After a more or less stagnant phase until 2005, the population ﬁ gure of Hanover has been stead- ily rising since then. Just in 2011 it grew by nearly 3,200 people, especially due to

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increased immigration from abroad so that at the end of 2011 Hanover with nearly 526,000 residents had reached again its peak of 1994. On 30–6-2012 the population ﬁ gure was 527,135.

Ratio of births and deaths (natural balance) relatively balanced Hanover´s growth in recent years is the result of a combination of little death surpluses (birth deﬁ cits) with net migration gains. Figure 2 illustrates the number of births and deaths in Hanover from 1987 to 2011 and the resultant death surplus. In each year there were more deaths than births, so the natural balance was continuously negative. The gap began to close since the mid-1980s, though, and in 2011 a natural loss of only 298 people has been the comparatively most favorable balance so far. In recent years, annually only about 400 people more died than were being born, while in 1987 there were nearly 2,300. This has fostered the positive development of Hanover´s population ﬁ gures.

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 births deaths death surplus

Figure 2. Births, deaths and resulting death surplus in Hanover 1987 to 2011 Source: Statistical Ofﬁ ce of Lower Saxony

The birth rate is an important factor of population development. The state capital of Hanover takes numerous steps to promote child-friendly conditions, to continually expand the child-and family-oriented infrastructure and to enhance its quality in order to encourage the start of a family and to entice the families to stay permanently in town. This includes extensive investments in (early) childhood education and child care, as well as creating and promoting family-friendly living space (Chapter 3.2).

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The population development results from a combination of births and deaths with migration. Figure 3 shows the evolution of the inﬂ ows and outﬂ ows of people across the city boundary and the resulting annual net migration of Hanover from 1987 to 2011.

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 –5,000 moves in moves out net migration Figure 3. Moves into and out of Hanover and resulting net migration 1987 to 2011 Source: Statistical Ofﬁ ce of Lower Saxony

2011 with 3,400 people shows highest migration gain of Hanover since 1992 Moves from and to Hanover since 1993 are roughly at about 30,000 per year each. As a consequence of this often rather balanced ratio the migration balance in many years was not very distinct. Especially in recent years, however, in-migrants prevail. Until the mid-1980s, Hanover had mostly migration losses. 1987 to 1994 there were more people moving into Hanover than leaving, with the years 1989 to 1992 showing the highest net gains. In this phase, low fi gures of outfl ow of people overlapped with high immigration, which was partly caused by the opening of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, associated with immigration of ethnic German immigrants and quota refugees from the former Soviet Union, as well as infl ow of asylum seekers and migrants from former East Germany. Since 1993 the number of departing residents increased, while the number of people moving into Hanover remained fairly stable, so that the net gain diminished until the migration balance turned negative at the end of the last century for a number of years. Between 2000 and 2011 then, Hanover´s migration balance was positive in every year except 2003. In recent years, from 2006 to 2010, about 1,800 more people per year moved to Hanover than abandoned the town. In 2011 alone the migration gain stood at just over 3,400 people and was the highest since 1992. These migration gains Hanover realized in most years exceeded the death surpluses and lead to a positive population development. Infl ow of people that outnum-

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bers outfl ow is thus crucial for town development: only migration gains can compensate birth defi cits and stable or even rising population fi gures can be achieved. The net migration gain due to a high infl ow of people refl ects the attractiveness of Hanover as a place for a living, as a residential location, labour market and education location. This recent population growth accounts for other large towns in Germany as well. The comprehensive and varied infrastructure of the city and its urbanity offer signifi cant locational advantages in an increasingly inter-regional and partly international competition for new residents. Knowing the structure of migration fl ows helps it to detect potentials for urban development and to develop target group specifi c approaches of action.

3. Age structure of migration and its impact on the population structure

Age groups tend to have consistent migration patterns Migration patterns of different age groups seem to be rather constant over time. Looking at the moves across the city boundary of Hanover since 1991, merely the age group of 30 to 49 years shows a noticeable variation in its volume of migration (Chapter 3.2), in contrast to the rather constant groups of 0 to 17-year-olds, 18 to 29-year-olds and 50-year-olds and older. The stability of temporal (and spatial) migration patterns has also been revealed by the published study on moves within the town of Hanover mentioned above. From 2006 to 2010 Hanover had net gains on average of 1,800 people per an- num but with high differences between several age groups (Table 1).

Table 1. Migration balance of Hanover from 2006 to 2011 according to age groups

Average Age group 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 to 2010 Under 18 years –770 –489 –491 –458 –452 –532 –409 18–24 years 3,458 3,543 3,943 3,590 3,519 3,611 4,165 25–29 years 704 663 818 857 562 721 1,208 30–49 years –1,312 –998 –1,567 –1,514 –1,042 –1,287 –880 50–64 years –321 –168 –192 –129 –35 –169 –237 65 years & over –703 –456 –399 –573 –511 –528 –424 Total 1,056 2,095 2,112 1,773 2,041 1,815 3,423 Source: Statistical Ofﬁ ce of Lower Saxony.

Hanover´s migration gain based on the infl ow of young adults Hanover owes its net gains fi rst and foremost to the infl ow of young adults, especially between 18 and 24 years, with a strong net migration gain of approximately

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3,600 per year. In the age group from 25 to 29 years there are also more moves into than out of town. All other age groups – i.e. under 18-year-olds and all ages from 30 years upwards – continuously show net migration losses. The heaviest minus occurs from 30 to 49 years of age with minus approximately 1,300 people per year, as well as the group of under 18-year-olds (minus approx. 500 per year) when families are concerned. These groups of migrants are mainly families who move into the surrounding of Hanover, and less individuals who relocate due to a job change (labour migration) (Chapter 3.2 and 4). The year 2011 conﬁ rms these age group-speciﬁ c patterns of migration: the migration gain of 3,423 people is the result of very high migration gains among 18 to 24-year-olds (4,165) and high migration gains among 25 to 29-year-olds (1,208) in combination with losses in all other age groups.

3.1. People migrating aged 18 to 29 years (vocational training and labour migration) Clearly highest migration intensity of young adults The total volume of migration clearly shows the signiﬁ cant role young adults play and what relatively small proportion elderly people have of the migration volume: almost half of all moves (45 per cent) over the city boundary of Hanover between 2006 and 2010 fell upon 18 to 29-year-olds, who only make up 17 per cent of the population (Figure 4). Vice versa, 38 per cent of all Hanover residents are 50 years and older, still their share of the migration volume is only 11 per cent. Young adults are by far the most active moving segment of the population.

50 45 45 40 38 33 35 31 30 25 20 15 17 15 11 11 10 5 0 under 18 years 18–29 years 30–49 years 50 years & older Age group share of population share of migration

Figure 4. Share of age groups on migration compared to share of population in Ha- nover (in %) Source: Statistical Ofﬁ ce of Lower Saxony; status: migration average 2006 to 2010, population on 31-12-2010

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Vocational training and job offer possibilities determining for migration The high infl ow of young adults results primarily from the broad diversifi ed vocational training facilities including universities and the large job offer in Hanover (and the Hanover Region). The affi nity of many young people to an urban life style at this stage of their life means a locational advantage of large cities as well. 18 to 29-year-olds therefore are an essential carrier of the demographic and economic dynamics in Hanover. Hanover´s migration gains even result exclusively from this group. By huge relevance for urban development thus are a high-value education and vocational training landscape as well as a large and differentiated offer of employment. For relocations to the state capital of Hanover these are, as a rule, the deciding factors. Also of great importance is the housing market which has to provide suitable housing supply (Chapter 3.2).

3.2. People migrating aged 30 to 49 years and under 18 years (suburbanisation, family migration) Young adults who moved into Hanover, however, do not all stay in town in the long term: despite a positive tendency in recent years the net migration balance for 30 to 49-year-olds is still negative (Table 2).

Table 2. Migration balance of Hanover on the average from 2006 to 2010 with different regions as a total and according to age groups

< 18 18–24 25–29 30–49 50–64 65 years Region Total years years years years years + Surrounding area –1,152 642 753 36 1,015 72 –211 Lower Saxony 2,088 8 1,323 648 186 –7 –70 Old Federal States –261 –99 383 –110 –351 –25 –59 New Federal States 931 63 549 217 103 14 –14 Berlin –262 0 –56 –90 –84 –14 –19 Foreign countries 472 139 659 20 –125 –65 –156 Total 1,816 –532 3,611 721 –1,287 –169 –528

Source: Statistical Ofﬁ ce of Lower Saxony

The age pyramid of the state capital of Hanover on 1-1-2012 and on 1-1-2025 clariﬁ es the signiﬁ cant migration loss of the age group of approximately 30 years and older (Figure 5) [Landeshauptstadt Hannover 2012b]: today’s population of men and women peak at about 25 to 30 years of age. In 2025, when this population will be about 45 years old, the peak has vanished. This shows that not all people in their thirties remain in Hanover. In comparison, the strong baby boomer years of now about 45 to 50 years of age do mainly remain in Hanover – the peak has shifted upwards to an age of about 55 to 60 years of age by 2025.

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Figure 5. Age pyramid of actual and projected population of Hanover in 2012 and 2025

Heaviest migration losses with families, however weaker than a decade ago With the outfl ow of 30 to 49-year-olds, the migration (of families) from the city of Hanover to its surrounding area is of particular signifi cance: with an average net outfl ow of 1,000 people from 2006 to 2010, this age group has a large proportion of the total net loss of minus 1,300 people. “Surrounding area” here geographically means the administrative Hanover Region without the state capital itself. 525,875 inhabitants in the city of Hanover on 31–12–2011 plus 610,092 inhabitants in the surroundings make up to a total of 1,14 mio. citizens in the Hanover Region. Hanover also loses people aged 30 to 49 to the Old Federal States (Chapter 4), whose relocations, unlike the urban-rural migration, are primarily induced by the labour market. This age group is family-oriented, often economically potent and tends to have a stabilizing effect on their neighbourhood, so it has special signifi - cance for urban development From 2006 to 2010 each year Hanover has lost nearly 1,200 residents, on balance, to the surrounding Hanover Region. Only with young people aged 18 to 24 years Hanover has a noticeable net infl ow from the surrounding area, which between 25 and 29 years is only just positive (Table 2). The migration loss of persons aged 30 to 49 is enforced by the corresponding loss of children and adolescents under the age of 18, who constitute a reasonable family indicator. The numbers clearly show that families in particular are moving into the surrounding Hanover Region.

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Although Hanover still suffers its largest net migration loss with its surrounding Hanover Region, the outfl ow is signifi cantly weaker than it was 20 years before (Figure 6). Admittedly, 2009 to 2011 the net loss was again somewhat higher than in the previously three years, but still the numbers are signifi cantly more favorable compared to the level in the past.

0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 –500 –1,000 –1,500 –2,000

Net migration per year –2,500 –3,000 –3,500 –4,000

Figure 6. Net migration of Hanover with its surrounding Hanover Region 1991–2011 Source: Statistical Ofﬁ ce of Lower Saxony

Figure 7 shows the annual net migration of Hanover with its surroundings from 1991 to 2011 divided into four age groups. 30 to 49-year-olds have the highest net loss but the loss has reduced the most since 1995, though with a slightly negative trend again recently (bottom line). In the other age groups, since 1995 there was a positive trend as well. Suburbanisation of young families has weakened considerably, with a positive effect on the population ﬁ gure and on the population age structure of Hanover.

1,000

500

0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 –500

Net migration per year –1,000

–1,500

–2,000 under 18 years 18 to 29 years 30 to 49 years 50 years & over

Figure 7. Net migration of Hanover with its surrounding Hanover Region from 1991 to 2011 according to age groups Source: Statistical Ofﬁ ce of Lower Saxony

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Measures of the City of Hanover against suburbanisation A key factor for families leaving Hanover for the surrounding area is the supply of suitable housing, which in the outer Hanover Region tends to be less expensive than in the capital, both in terms of home ownership and renting. Also in view of the fact that families require increased living space, they can sometimes easier fulfi ll their ideas of living outside the city boundaries. In addition to those measures put in place to support families mentioned earlier in Chapter 2, the City of Hanover operates a housing policy that strives to keep families within the city, in particular by creating and promoting family-friendly living space and conditions. These include for example a „Single-family-house-programme“, and a „Hanover- children-building-plot-bonus“. The detached house programme was created in the 1990s particularly to tie the age group of 30 to 49 years to Hanover. It provides attractive offers and incentives for the construction of single-family homes in Hanover. This includes differentiated offerings of building areas in many boroughs as well as (advice) services in the family home offi ce, and additional funding and incentive schemes such as the „Hanover-children-building-plot-bonus“. Since 1997 the local authority grants a child discount to all parents who intend to build a house. When purchasing a property that is intended for the construction of a single-family house, the price of the building site is reduced by ten per cent for each child the family already has. This promotion has been extended to the fi rst acquisition of self-used owner-occupied fl ats. The City of Hanover is currently developing a “Housing concept 2025” that will form the basis of the housing policy over the next 10 years. Supply and demand in the housing market are analyzed to keep living in Hanover attractive for the important target groups, which are young people, families, and as well those who need assistance on the housing market. Therefore, for newly constructed building, one tries to offer a diverse and well distributed range of sites, and at the same time the existing housing stock must also be developed. It can be assumed that this wide range of activities taken by the City of Hano- ver to promote families has at least partly caused the reduced net outfl ow into the surrounding Hanover Region.

3.3. People migrating aged 50 years and older (retirement residence) More people aged 50 years and older leave Hanover than move into town Although the share of population of people 50 years and older is already high and increasing, their proportion of the migrations is considerably lower (Chapter 3.1). Hanover has a consistently negative migration balance for people from 50 years and older. This applies both in time and space (Tables 1 and 2). Between 2006 and 2010 the annual net migration loss was about 700 elderly people, of which the Hanover Region took up the largest share. However, in the previous ﬁ ve years, the loss was higher at about minus 1,000 people per year.

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Net migration loss among people aged 50 and older with the surrounding area lower than before Hanover therefore seems to get more attractive for people 50 years and older, and in particular for the younger age group from 50 to 65 years. Figure 7 shows that the net outfl ow of Hanover to its surrounding Region has noticeably decreased for people 50 years and older since about 2001. It continuously halved from over 700 people at the beginning of the century to around 300 per year today. The number of out-migrants decreased and the number in-migrants moving into Hanover increased at the same time. It can be observed that elderly people choose to reside and make their retirement home in a large city with its senior-friendly infrastructure (such as well-developed public transport, walkable shopping opportunities, health facilities) or vice versa rather to remain in Hanover when getting old. Further the widespread infrastructure that Hanover offers which is not specifi cally connected with older people, like cultural institutions, may also play a positive role, too. Differentiated by people between 50 and 64 years and those aged 65 and over, suburbanisation has declined since about 2001 in both groups, while the net outfl ow of the older group is much stronger. For people between 50 and 64 years of age the migration loss has reduced to the extent that in the last few years it was almost balanced several times. For seniors over 65 years of age presumably some factors against spending one´s remaining years in a big city may play a greater role than for the age group 50 to 64 years. For example, leaving Hanover due to moves nearer to relatives (e.g. grown-up children). In the surrounding Hanover Region older people sometimes move to nearby cities within the Region to improve their access to infrastructure facilities (such as walkable distances to surgeries or shops) while at the same time keep their estab- lished social environment due to the small moving distance. Moving to Hanover may on the other hand mean less attractive housing conditions because the higher housing market price level may possibly compromise the quality of living. The quiteness and cleanliness in the neighbourhood tend to have greater importance the older one becomes.

4. Spatial migration structures and future migration potential

In recent years, most important for the migration balance of Hanover have been the migrations to and from the Hanover Region, Lower Saxony and the New Fed- eral States (Table 2). The Region was already dealt with in Chapter 3.2. Below the migration patterns of Hanover are examined with Lower Saxony, the Old and New Federal States and with foreign countries, as well as their possible future development.

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Population projection predicts an increase of 12,000 people in Hanover by 2025 The latest population projection of the City of Hanover (Landeshauptstadt Hano- ver 2012b) assumes an increase of 12,000 inhabitants until 2025 (2.3%). The number of children and young people under the age of 18 could slightly increase by 1,600 (2.0%), and those aged from 18 to 29 years of age could decrease by 2.900 (–3.3%). For the age group of 30 to 49 years the projected decline is 9,200 (–5.9%), while the number of elderly aged 50 and over grows noticeably by 22,500 people (11.7%). The projection takes the actual migration structures in recent years into consideration as well as estimated changes within the next decade. Hanover´s future migration potential partly depends on the development of the age groups´ dimen- sions in its source regions Hanover Region, Old and New Federal States and abroad. In the surrounding Region, according to the population projection just mentioned the crucial group of 18 to 29-year-olds will decline by 4,100 people (–5.6%) until 2025. This migration potential will therefore diminish.

Lower Saxony Continuously high net inﬂ ow from Lower Saxony The most pronounced migration balance Hanover has had in recent years has been with Lower Saxony (excluding Hanover Region examined separately). Without the high average migration gain of 2,100 people per year achieved here, the population of Hanover would have not increased but decreased (Table 2). In 2011, the net gain was 2,700 people. The migration of people aged between 18 and 24 were quantitatively particularly important, also of the 25 to 29-year-olds. The Statistical Ofﬁ ce of Lower Saxony predicts in its population projection until 2031 a population decline in Lower Saxony of 6.4 per cent (Landesbetrieb für Statistik und Kommunikationstechnologie Niedersachsen 2011). The age groups 0 to 17, 18 to 29 and 30 to 49 years will shrink by about 20 per cent, while the number of people aged 50 years and older increases by 18 per cent.

Hanover´s most important migration potential from Lower Saxony, young adults, decreases in the future Because the number of 18 to 29-year-olds will diminish in the future this reduces Hanover´s migration potential from Lower Saxony in this important age group, possibly leading to a correspondingly lower migration to Hanover. A dampening effect to this development could be rural depopulation: with shrinking future prospects particularly in rural areas due to continued declining fi gures of young adults, the tendency of an infl ow into Lower Saxony´s state capital increases for those who remain. Still the long-term potential of this migration group for Hanover will be signifi cantly lower than today.

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Old Federal States (without Lower Saxony) Migration balance for the Old Federal States slightly positive lately There are particularly intense migration relations between Hanover and Hamburg, Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt, taking the number of inhabitants into consideration. Only with the latter of these three states does Hanover have a positive balance. Between 2006 and 2010 Hanover only had a positive migration balance for the age group of 18 to 24 years, with all other age groups Hanover had losses (Table 2). Figure 8 shows that since 1995 Hanover has suffered migration losses with the old West German states each year. 2009, 2010, and 2011, however, there were (slight) surpluses.

1,000

500

Net migration per year 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 –500

–1,000

–1,500

total 18 to 29 years 30 to 49 years

Figure 8. Net migration of Hanover with the Old Federal States from 1991 to 2011 according to two age groups Source: Statistical Ofﬁ ce of Lower Saxony

For those aged under 18 years and people aged 50 years and older Hanover has a fairly consistent migration balance with only slight losses. Therefore the groups 18 to 29 years and 30 to 49 years of age mainly affect Hanover´s balance with the Old Federal States. In the last 20 years Hanover often had pronounced migration losses in the age group of 30 to 49 years. These were much lower than the losses to the surrounding Region and still indicate a labour market related migration to old West German states. Hanover´s labour market, on balance, only attracts people aged between 30 and 49 from Lower Saxony and the New Federal States (Table 2): from 2006 to 2010 there was no signiﬁ cant net migration gain in this age class from any former

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West German state. The highest losses occurred to the city states Hamburg (–153 people per year) and Berlin (–84), and to the economically strong southern states Bavaria (–80) and Baden-Wuerttemberg (–58). In the years from 2001 to 2005, the basic pattern was the same, the losses to Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg, however, were more pronounced, and there had been a net emigration to North Rhine-Westphalia (–74 people per year). On a federal level, in the future a decrease in the number of 18 to 29-year-olds can be expected, who are an important source of in-migrants to Hanover. The 12th coordinated population projection for Germany by the Federal Statistical Ofﬁ ce from 2009 until 2060 (Statistisches Bundesamt 2009) expects in the variant „mean population, lower bound” until 2020 decreases in the group 0 to 19 years of age (–2.0%, to 2060: –5.5%) and 20 to 29 years (–1.3%, to 2060: –3.8%), as well as 30 to 49 years (–4.4%, to 2060: –9.7%). The number of people aged 50 and older will increase by 17 per cent until 2020.

New Federal States New Federal States continued source region for in-migration, but in the long term decreasing potential Hanover´s migration gains from all New Federal States of Germany are also signifi cant for the currently positive total net gain of Hanover (Table 2). From 2006 to 2010, the overfl ow was about 900 people per year (2011: 679). As from all areas examined (except Berlin) the infl ow of young people between 18 and 24 years of age was most positive, followed by the 25 to 29-year-olds.

2,000

1,500

1,000 Net migration per year

500

0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

–500

total under 18 years 18 to 29 years 30 to 50 years Figure 9. Net migration of Hanover with the New Federal States from 1991 to 2011 according to three age groups Source: Statistical Ofﬁ ce of Lower Saxony

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Hanover´s net gain from the New Federal States, however, tends to decline since the beginning of the millennium (Figure 9). The decrease in particular relates to the age group from 18 to 29 years (second line from the top), and particularly the age group 18 to 24. Among other things, this is linked to the declining population ﬁ gure in this age group. The out-migration potential of the New Federal States moving to Hanover is thus expected to be sinking considerably in the future.

Foreign countries Foreign countries as an important future source of in-migrants are subject to ﬂ uctuations In most years more people from abroad have move into Hanover than vice versa. From 1991 to 2011, seven years with migration losses compared to 14 years with a migration gain (Figure 10). The net gain of 2,200 people in 2011 was the highest since 1993 and resulted almost exclusively from the in-migration of young people between 18 and 24 years of age (Table 2). These include many students from abroad. On the other hand, for older people the balance is negative. From 1996 to 2011 apart from one year more people aged 50 years and older left Hanover for foreign countries than immigrated. Especially foreigners aged 65 years and older tend to return to their mother country.

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000 Net migration per year 2,000

1,000

–1,000 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

–2,000 Figure 10. Net migration of Hanover with foreign countries from 1991 to 2011 Source: Statistical Ofﬁ ce of Lower Saxony

Compared to all regions examined above, foreign countries probably represent the most important potential for immigration to Hanover in the future. International migration is at the same time the least predictable, since a number of factors have

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an impact – e.g. the measures of the Federal Government for the governance of immigration. The political, economic or social situation in source countries is a key factor, as can presently be seen within the EU. Distinguished by citizenship, Germans in 2011 had a slight net migration loss of minus 242 people, which means more Germans emigrated to foreign countries than immigrated to Hanover. This ﬁ gure was clearly exceeded by the positive balance of foreign migrants amounting to a net gain of 2,400 persons. Within recent years from 2006 to 2010 the most positive migration balance across the borders of Germany to Hanover has been from Poland (balance of 1,800 persons altogether), followed by Bulgaria and Romania. The highest net migration losses from Hanover were to Turkey (–340) and Switzerland (minus 462 persons altogether within ﬁ ve years). In 2011 Hanover had again the most positive net gain of 625 people in just that one year from Poland, followed by Bulgaria, Greece and Rumania. The highest net loss from Hanover was again to Switzerland (–106).

Currently high immigration from the EU to Germany and Hanover The year 2011 brought both Germany and Hanover high immigration from abroad. The infl ow to Hanover increased by just over 1,500 people (26%) compared to 2010, whilst the number of people leaving abroad fell by 159 people (3%). 2011 showed the highest net immigration from foreign countries since 1993. The positive development is caused by a strong infl ow of foreigners: The migration gain of 1,000 in the year 2010 has increased signifi cantly to over 2,400. The migration balance of Germans with foreign countries shows that 2011 is like 2010, slightly negative with a minus of 242 (2010: –214). The spatial structure of immigration in 2011 was similar for Germany and for Hanover. Immigration to Germany increased primarily from the European Union (+34%). The infl ow of people from EU countries that are severely affected by the fi nancial and debt crisis increased signifi cantly: 90% more immigrants came to Germany from Greece than the year before, and 52% more came from Spain. Infl ow from those countries that joined the EU in 2004 has also strongly increased by 43%. Among other things, the elimination of the last access restrictions to the labour market for the citizens of these countries in May 2011 contributed to this development. In particular the number of immigrants to Germany from Poland (49,000 more than 2010) and Hungary increased. From Bulgaria and Romania, who joined the EU in 2007, immigration has risen by 29%. The situation in Hanover in 2011 compared to 2010 was rather similar to the one in the whole of Germany: the increased immigration by 26% stemmed primarily from Europe (+33%). Poland had the strongest increase: in 2010 969 people moved from Poland to Hanover, but 1,325 in 2011, which means a plus of 356 people or 37%. The outfl ow to Poland was 618 in 2010 and 700 in 2011, so Hanover´s net gain rose from 351 to 625. From Rumania, Greece and Bulgaria the number of

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immigrants has also risen signiﬁ cantly. From Greece, not only the total number has increased but also the relative increase was 177% compared to 2010.

Conclusions

Hanover grows in the 21st century, like other large German cities Overall, Hanover´s growth in recent years due to migration gains from different areas can be seen in the context of the renaissance of large German cities in the 21st century. Suburbanisation into the surroundings which was strong until the 1990s especially for families has eased. At the same time, in-migration increased, with young people aged between 18 and 29 being most important. Obviously living urbanly with short distances and broad infrastructure facilities at hand is getting more attractive and the advantages of urbanity pay off.

Hanover dependent on immigration for population stability – greatest potential in the long term presumably from abroad As a result it shows that in the context of long-term anticipated birth defi cits and despite overall rather dwindling migration potential yet migration represents the determining factor of the future population development of Hanover. Opportunities arise in particular by qualifi ed international immigration and connected integration policy. The family-oriented urban development policy (education, housing, etc.) can also exert signifi cant positive impact on the future population structure and development of Lower Saxony´s capital.

References

Landesbetrieb für Statistik und Kommunikationstechnologie Niedersachsen (o. J.), LSKN- -Online – Regionaldatenbank für Niedersachsen, http://www.lskn.niedersachsen.de. Landesbetrieb für Statistik und Kommunikationstechnologie Niedersachsen, 2011, Die Ergebnisse der regionalen Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung für Niedersachsen bis zum 01.01.2031, Basis 2009, Statistische Berichte Niedersachsen A I 8.2/S, Hannover. Landeshauptstadt Hannover, 2012a, Wanderungen in der Landeshauptstadt Hannover, Wanderungen zwischen den Stadtteilen, Wanderungen mit dem Umland und Außen- wanderungen, Schriften zur Stadtentwicklung Band 113, Hannover. Landeshauptstadt Hannover, 2012b, Bevölkerungsprognose für die Region Hannover, die Landeshauptstadt Hannover und die Städte und Gemeinden des Umlands 2012 bis 2020/2025, Schriften zur Stadtentwicklung Band 112, Hannover. Statistisches Bundesamt, 2009, Bevölkerung Deutschlands bis 2060, Ergebnisse der 12. koordinierten Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung, Wiesbaden.

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MIGRACJE W HANOWERZE. PRZESTRZENNE I CHARAKTERYSTYCZNE DLA GRUP WIEKOWYCH STRUKTURY MIGRACYJNE I POTENCJAŁ MIGRACJI W PRZYSZŁOŚCI

Streszczenie: Migracje mają duże znaczenie w rozwoju miasta Hanower, ponieważ wpływa- ją zarówno na liczbę mieszkańców, jak i strukturę ludności. Bilans migracji w liczącej około 527 tys. mieszkańców stolicy kraju związkowego Dolna Saksonia jest niemalże w każdym roku dodatni. Ze względu na fakt, że przyrost naturalny jest – podobnie jak w prawie całych Niemczech – ujemny, liczba mieszkańców Hanoweru może pozostawać na niezmienionym poziomie lub rosnąć jedynie dzięki dodatniemu saldu migracji. Migracje wpływają nie tylko na ogólną liczbę ludności, ale także na jej strukturę. Zmiana demografi czna w kierunku starzenia się społeczeństwa może zostać nieco zahamowana dzięki przyciąganiu osób mło- dych przez duże miasta. Hanower charakteryzuje się znacznym przyrostem osób w grupie wiekowej 18–24 lata, a saldo migracji jest dodatnie także w grupie wiekowej 25–30 lat. Osoby te rozpoczynają studia lub pracę zawodową, korzystając z szerokiej oferty miasta. Stają się one nie tylko społecznością miejską, ale także ważną częścią rynku pracy. Z dru- giej strony Hanower charakteryzuje się negatywnymi tendencjami migracyjnymi w grupie wiekowej 30–49 lat oraz wśród dzieci. Mieszkańcy ci wyprowadzają się przeważnie na tereny podmiejskie. Procesy suburbanizacyjne tego rodzaju osłabły w ostatnich 20 latach. Miasto Hanower realizuje różne strategie i działania w celu stworzenia dla rodzin atrakcyjnej przestrzeni życiowej. Do działań tych zaliczyć należy zarówno liczne inwestycje w ramach edukacji najmłodszych dzieci oraz opieki nad nimi, jak i tworzenie oraz wspieranie funk- cjonowania przestrzeni mieszkalnej dostosowanej do potrzeb rodzin. Analizując zachowania migracyjne pod kątem przestrzennym, napływ ludności do Hanoweru notuje się przede wszystkim z obszaru Dolnej Saksonii, tzw. nowych krajów związkowych oraz z zagranicy. Aktualna prognoza demografi czna wskazuje na zwiększenie się liczby ludności Hanoweru o 12 tys. osób do 2025 roku. Zakłada się, że wzrost ten, ba- zujący na napływie ludności z obszaru Dolnej Saksonii oraz z zagranicy, będzie się nasilał. Potencjał migracyjny Hanoweru będzie się w przyszłości zmieniał. Nowe kraje związkowe stanowiły od chwili zjednoczenia Niemiec przed 20 laty istotne źródło osób migrujących do Hanoweru, lecz malejąca obecnie liczba osób młodych znacznie zmniejsza siłę tego po- tencjału. Tendencja ta dotyczy również Dolnej Saksonii, gdzie zgodnie z ofi cjalną prognozą demografi czną liczba tzw. młodych dorosłych, stanowiących najważniejszą grupę przyjezd- nych, wyraźnie się zmniejszy. Z racji tego, że proces suburbanizacji prawdopodobnie nie zostanie zupełnie wyeliminowany, coraz większe znaczenie dla Hanoweru będzie miała imigracja wykwalifi kowanych osób młodych. Cechuje się ona jednak sporymi wahaniami i wymaga prowadzenia aktywnej polityki integracyjnej. Słowa kluczowe: Hanower, migracje, imigracja, struktury migracyjne, potencjał migracyjny, ludność, prognoza ludności.

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