LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Thursday, March 26, 2020

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Thursday, March 26, 2020

FEATURED Q&A BOARD OF ADVISORS TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk How Will a Delayed CEO, Bolivia Extends DevryBV Sustainable Strategies Border Lockdown, Joyce Chang Vote Alter Bolivia’s Panama Halts Global Head of Research, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Domestic Flights Paula Cifuentes Director of Economic & Fiscal Affairs, Presidential Race? Several countries took additional Latin America & Canada, actions to fight the spread of Philip Morris International coronavirus. Among them, Bolivia Marlene Fernández extended its border closures Corporate Vice President for until April 15, and Panama barred Government Relations, Arcos Dorados domestic passenger flights. Peter Hakim Page 2 President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue ECONOMIC Donna Hrinak President, Boeing Latin America Venezuela Opens Jon E. Huenemann Former Corporate and Financial Rescue Government Senior Executive Talks With China James R. Jones Citing the coronavirus pandemic, interim Bolivian President Jeanine Áñez’s government Chairman, Venezuela is seeking economic Monarch Global Strategies postponed the country’s presidential election, which had been planned for May 3. // File Photo: Bolivian Government. support from China amid the Craig A. Kelly Covid-19 pandemic. Director, Americas International Bolivia’s interim government has postponed the country’s Page 3 Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil John Maisto May 3 presidential election amid the coronavirus pandemic. Director, U.S. Education The May vote had been planned as a re-do following the POLITICAL Finance Group Q disputed re-election victory and subsequent self-exile of Nicolás Mariscal Brazil Governors Chairman, then-President Evo Morales last year. Since then, the national ombuds- Blast Bolsonaro’s Grupo Marhnos man and human rights groups have accused interim President Jeanine Thomas F. McLarty III Plan to Reopen Chairman, Áñez of presiding over the detentions of hundreds of political oppo- Schools, Stores McLarty Associates nents, the silencing of journalists and a campaign of so-called “national Carlos Paz-Soldan Brazilian governors rebelled Partner, pacification” that has left dozens of people dead. How is Bolivia’s against President Jair Bolsonaro, DTB Associates, LLP presidential race shaping up? What effect will the delayed election and blasting the president’s call to Beatrice Rangel reopen schools and businesses Director, the coronavirus outbreak have on the country’s politics? What should be and saying Bolsonaro is jeop- AMLA Consulting LLC done about the human rights abuse accusations lodged against Áñez’s ardizing states’ efforts to fight Jaana Remes Partner, interim government? coronavirus. McKinsey Global Institute Page 2 Ernesto Revilla Head of Latin American Iván C. Rebolledo, managing partner at TerraNova Strategic Economics, Citi Partners and president of the Bolivian-American Chamber Gustavo Roosen Chairman of the Board, of Commerce: “The pre-electoral cycle is filled with notable Envases Venezolanos A hiccups, from the Covid-19 outbreak, detention of numerous Andrés Rozental MAS political opponents and intolerance by this transition government on President, Rozental & Asociados numerous fronts. The Áñez government is clearly doing what it believes Shelly Shetty has to be done to avoid a MAS triumph in the upcoming election and the Head of Sovereign Ratings, Latin America, Fitch return of Evo Morales and his nefarious grip on the country. The Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) has ordered the suspension of the electoral calendar by 14 days to match the national quarantine. However, it has yet to set a new official date for the actual vote. Unfortunately, this administration does not respond well to international media criticism. Local protests Bolsonaro // File Photo: Brazilian Government. Continued on page 3

POLITICAL NEWS NEWS BRIEFS Bolivia Extends Brazilian Governors Border Lockdown, Nespresso Says Probe Finds Child Labor Blast Bolsonaro’s Call Panama Halts Flights Violations in Guatemala to Reopen Schools Bolivia’s government on Wednesday extended Nestlé’s Nespresso coffee unit on Wednes- its border closures to April 15, from March day said an internal investigation has found Brazilian governors on Wednesday rebelled 31 previously, and declared a national health evidence of child labor violations in Guatemala against President Jair Bolsonaro’s call to return emergency amid the fast-moving spread of after allegations surfaced several weeks ago. to normalcy, saying his urge to reopen schools coronavirus, Reuters reported. Interim Presi- The Switzerland-based company said that out and businesses contradicts health experts’ dent Jeanine Áñez said in a public address that of 374 visited farms in the region that supply recommendations and puts Latin America’s no one will be able to enter or leave the country Nespresso, the investigation identified three largest population at risk, the Associated Press during the lockdown. Áñez’s government had confirmed cases of child labor. “Firm action reported. State governors, many of whom have previously declared a 14-day nationwide quar- has been taken,” the company said. Among the ordered tough measures to limit gatherings in antine, but it tightened restrictions on Wednes- changes, Nespresso will double its team of their regions, defied the president’s instructions day, saying that only one person per household agronomists in Guatemala by the end of June would be permitted to leave home between the and hire dedicated social workers. hours of 7 a.m. and noon, Monday through Fri- You are the president, day. “In recent days, non-compliance with the and you have to quarantine has increased the risk of contagion,” Sumitomo Suspends set the example.” said Áñez, adding that the military and the Operations at Bolivia — João Doria national police would enforce the restrictions. Bolivia has 39 confirmed cases of Covid-19 Mining Project and no reported deaths from it. Elsewhere Japan-based Sumitomo Corporation today a day earlier that they limit isolation only to in the region, Panama suspended domestic announced the temporary suspension of the elderly and those with longstanding health passenger flights in an attempt to contain the operations at Minera San Cristobal, a silver, problems. In a videoconference on Wednesday virus, according to the country’s civil aviation zinc and lead mining project in Bolivia, in order between Bolsonaro and governors from Brazil’s authority. Only humanitarian flights and aircraft to prevent the spread of coronavirus. All-day or southeast region, São Paulo Gov. João Doria carrying cargo will be exempt. The Central night curfews have been imposed in the area, threatened to sue the federal government American nation last Sunday barred all inter- and public transportation has been suspended. if it tried to interfere with his state’s efforts national flights. Colombia’s government also “Considering the impact of these measures, to combat the virus, according to video of tightened its restrictions, imposing a lockdown including difficulties of securing access to the the private meeting, the Associated Press until April 12, Agence France-Presse reported. operations for employees and the effects of lo- reported. “You are the president and you have In Chile, officials ordered schools shut down gistic stagnation, we have decided to suspend to set the example,” said Doria, who supported until May, after suspending classes on March operations temporarily to ensure the safety of Bolsonaro’s presidential run. “You have to be 16. Some 1.3 million residents of Santiago employees and their families,” the company the representative to command, guide and lead will also be on lockdown for at least a week, said in a statement. this country, not divide it,” he said. Many others starting today. The areas of the capital where rejected Bolsonaro’s call to lift the restrictions. residents’ movement will be restricted contain Virus plans that Bolsonaro had challenged the greatest number of cases, said Health were upheld by the Supreme Court, the heads Minister Jaime Mañalich. “The movement of Mexico to Receive Cruise of both congressional houses criticized the people can generate more contagion,” he said. Ships But ‘Fumigate’ president’s nationwide address, and com- “This means that people will have to stay at Arriving Passengers panies donated supplies to state anti-virus home,” he added. Colombia currently has 470 Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, Mexico’s gov- efforts. Cities are turning Brazil’s most famous confirmed cases of Covid-19 and four deaths, ernment said Wednesday that it would allow stadiums into field hospitals to treat infected while Chile has 1,142 confirmed cases and cruise ship passengers to disembark in the patients, including Rio de Janeiro’s Maracanã three deaths. In Mexico City, dozens of people country, the Associated Press reported. The and São Paulo’s Pacaembu stadiums, the Voice waited in line on the sidewalk and in their cars government added that passengers would be of America reported. Brazil has registered more at a laboratory in an upscale area of the city “individually fumigated” before being taken to than 2,500 confirmed cases and 60 deaths. to be tested for coronavirus, Reuters reported. airports to return to their home countries.

“My body hurts, I don’t have energy, I climb the FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 stairs and I feel like I can’t breathe,” Alejandra Quintero, a 46-year-old yoga teacher among the are at times criminalized, and charges of daily subsistence provisions for the large people who went to the Biomedica lab, told the sedition and terrorism are being leveled for informal sector, has led to 1,500 arrests and wire service. She said President Andrés Manuel disagreeing or questioning the current gov- threats of martial law. The two-week suspen- López Obrador should conduct more public ernment. At the moment, all political cam- sion of elections could extend indefinitely, in testing. Mexico has 475 confirmed cases of paigns have been put on pause, and they are spite of pushback from MAS. Human rights the disease, though some experts say the all focusing on prevention and informing the violations may well escalate as the epidemic actual number of cases could be much higher public of the perils of Covid-19. President expands. Within this context, it is crucial because of the government’s limited testing. Áñez’ government has been very aggressive on the fight against this pandemic with progressive economic and social policies, a The two-week ECONOMIC NEWS 14-day mandatory quarantine of all Bolivians, suspension of job safety and other initiatives. However, the elections could overall effect on the Bolivian economy will extend indefinitely...” Venezuela Opens be disastrous for years to come. Undoubted- — Kathryn Ledebur Financial Rescue ly, Áñez’s administration is leaving a strong conservative mark, and it will not easily give Talks With China up control. We have swung from one side that international organizations and Áñez’s of the pendulum to the other. Only fair and allies, such as the United States and the The government of Venezuelan President transparent elections will decide. The issue European Union (the largest external funder), Nicolás Maduro has opened talks with China of probing human rights abuses by this denounce violations and demand account- over possible financial support in the face government will mostly likely happen during ability for security forces and the officials of the coronavirus pandemic and plunge in the next administration.” who are responsible. They should publicly in- global oil prices, Reuters reported Wednes- sist on protection for national human rights day, citing unnamed sources familiar with the Kathryn Ledebur, director of the monitors and respect for the agreement to negotiations. The talks involve renegotiating Andean Information Network host an IACHR experts group. Silence from oil-for-loan deals made more than a decade in Cochabamba, Bolivia: “In the United States and the European Union ago during the administration of the late Hugo A spite of a promise to only act has facilitated further deterioration of the Chávez. Venezuela has been the largest recip- as interim president, Áñez announced her rule of law in Bolivia.” ient of Chinese lending among Latin American candidacy, demonstrating a clear conflict countries, with more than $62 billion in loans of interest—she appointed the head of the John Walsh, director for drug made between 2007 and 2016, according to the National Electoral Tribunal and regional policy and the Andes at the Inter-American Dialogue’s China-Latin America authorities. Political persecution continues, Washington Office on Latin Finance Database. But those inflows stopped and the government has not complied with A America: “Postponing national completely over the past three years. Last the international community’s request for elections should be reserved for only the week, Maduro’s government in a surprise move ‘fair and free elections.’ A divided opposition, most extreme circumstances. This is all the asked the International Monetary Fund for $5 growing grassroots rejection of state-led more true in a polarized environment like Bo- billion in financing to confront the virus, but the violence and a collapsing economy has livia’s, where the executive branch does not IMF rejected the request, saying its members made MAS candidate Luis Arce the clear have a mandate from the voters and where did not all recognize Maduro as the legitimate leader in polls. The Áñez administration is credible elections will be crucial to fostering leader of the country. With its economy in near completely unprepared for coronavirus. It social peace. The public health threat posed collapse, Venezuela’s health system has lacked eliminated the recognized Mi Salud program, by Covid-19 meets this extraordinary thresh- medicines and basic supplies for years, and combating communicable diseases, and old. But Bolivia’s interim government under development experts worry that the pandemic expelled 700 Cuban doctors. On Feb. 28, Jeanine Áñez does not have the authority could hit the Andean nation particularly hard. Áñez purchased $6 million worth of tear gas on its own to postpone elections, much less [Editor’s note: See also Advisor Audio of the and weapons in lieu of investment in health to set a new voting date. Attempting to do Dialogue’s March 19 event with Alicia Bárcena equipment and protective gear to contain the so unilaterally would inflame an already of ECLAC and Santiago Levy with the Brookings epidemic. Reliance on the police and military tense situation—especially because Áñez is Institution.] to enforce strict quarantine norms, with no not only the interim executive but is herself Continued on page 4

FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 3 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR is published every business day by the Inter-American Dialogue, Copyright © 2020 campaigning for the presidency, despite confessed. Áñez’ government runs the coun- having pledged that she would not run. The try with a Legislative Assembly that Morales’ Erik Brand electoral authority (TSE) is seeking to pro- MAS party absolutely controls. Áñez barely Publisher [email protected] mote dialogue across the competing parties has control of her own cabinet. Yet, she is on the key question of a new voting date. managing the country. Most of the allega- Gene Kuleta Editor Ultimately, the political parties themselves tions on human rights violations have been [email protected] will need to reach an agreement that can or are under investigation by pro-Morales Anastasia Chacón González become law, in a legislature where MAS still bodies. Preliminary findings do not support Reporter & Associate Editor holds majorities in both chambers. Reaching [email protected] such an agreement will be complicated by deep mutual distrust among key actors and The electoral

many of their supporters. MAS presidential campaign was Michael Shifter, President candidate Luis Arce enjoys a sizable lead moving properly in Rebecca Bill Chavez, Nonresident Senior Fellow in the polls. MAS, having acknowledged the most parts of the Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow need to postpone the voting, can be expect- country.” Joan Caivano, Director, Special Projects ed to bargain for the briefest possible delay — Roberto Laserna Michael Camilleri, Director, Rule of Law Program and to insist that the Áñez government’s ha- Kevin Casas-Zamora, Nonresident Senior Fellow rassment of MAS candidates and partisans Héctor Castro Vizcarra, Nonresident Senior Fellow must cease immediately. All Bolivians must claims about political detentions, persecu- Julia Dias Leite, Nonresident Senior Fellow ultimately consider the electoral process to tion of journalists nor ‘massacres.’ Those are Ariel Fiszbein, Director, Education Program be credible in order for the voting results to accusations usually disseminated by interest Peter Hakim, President Emeritus help heal the country’s divisions rather than groups closely associated with Morales Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow exacerbate tensions and stoke renewed con- and his allies. The electoral campaign was Margaret Myers, Director, Asia and flict and violence. As an agreement is forged moving properly in most parts of the country, Latin America Program Manuel Orozco, Director, Migration, on the legislation needed to set a new allowing for MAS to regain credibility in Remittances & Development electoral calendar, technical and scientific the absence of Morales, whose illegal and Xiaoyu Pu, Nonresident Senior Fellow criteria regarding the protection of both pub- authoritarian behavior the electorate openly Jeffrey Puryear, Senior Fellow lic health and electoral integrity must prevail rejected last year. Competition was fierce Mateo Samper, Nonresident Senior Fellow so that all Bolivians can have confidence on the other side, with Carlos Mesa and Tamar Solnik, Director, Finance & Administration that they will be able to fully exercise their Jeanine Áñez competing vote-by-vote for Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy Program fundamental right to freely elect their own the right to face MAS in a second round. Denisse Yanovich, Director of Development and leaders as soon as possible.” However, the Covid-19 pandemic absorbed External Relations all efforts, revealing the critical condition Latin America Advisor is published every Roberto Laserna, director of the in which the Morales government left the business day, except for major U.S. holidays, Center for the Study of Econom- health system. Elections do not have a date, by the Inter-American Dialogue at 1155 15th Street NW, Suite 800 ic and Social Reality (CERES) in but the emergency is showing who is eager Washington, DC 20005 A Cochabamba, Bolivia: “An inde- to take chances on the opportunity and who www.thedialogue.org pendent body, the electoral tribunal, made is able to act responsibly. Depending on the ISSN 2163-7962 the decision to postpone the election. The conditions after the pandemic, the electoral Subscription inquiries are welcomed at justice system in Bolivia, including the attor- process will restart, or it may be reshaped [email protected]

ney general’s office, was fully controlled by with different actors.” The opinions expressed by the members of the Board of Evo Morales during his long and illegitimate Advisors and by guest commentators do not necessarily government. It was used against political The Advisor welcomes comments on its Q&A represent those of the publisher. The analysis is the sole view of each commentator and does not necessarily opponents and covered up criminal abuses, section. Readers can write editor Gene Kuleta represent the views of their respective employers or firms. as former authorities—who defected and fled at [email protected]. The information in this report has been obtained from reliable sources, but neither its accuracy and completeness, the country even before Evo’s resignation— nor the opinions based thereon, are guaranteed. If you have any questions relating to the contents of this publication, contact the editorial offices of the Inter-American Dialogue. Contents of this report may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without prior written permission from the publisher.