NO. 55 NOVEMBER 2020 Introduction

Bolivia after the 2020 General Elections Despite the Return to Power of the MAS, a New Political Era Could Be About to Begin Claudia Zilla and Madeleyne Aguilar Andrade

On 8 November Luis Arce and David Choquehuanca took office as the new president and vice-president of Bolivia, respectively. Less than a month earlier, they had won the elections in the first round with more than 55 per cent of the vote. Thus, the Move- ment towards Socialism (Movimiento al Socialismo or MAS) was returned to power and obtained an absolute majority in the parliament after a one-year interregnum follow- ing the fraudulent ballot in 2019. This outcome can be attributed not only to the desire of the people for economic and political stability as well as social peace but also to the poor performance of the transitional government of Jeanine Áñez and the oppo- sition’s fragmentation and polarizing campaign. The dethronement of Evo Morales and the current adverse conditions – not least Covid-19 – are among those factors that will make it impossible for the MAS to conduct business as usual.

It was a long and extremely difficult path to the first round of the elections, Bolivians the October 2020 general elections, which for and against him had already taken to were a re-run of the annulled October 2019 the streets. In its final report, published ballot. Evo Morales had pushed through in December, as well as in its preliminary four presidential mandates in a row by reports of October and November, the elec- means of violating constitutional provisions toral observation mission of the Organiza- (2009), ignoring the results of a plebiscite tion of American States (OAS) testified to against his re-election (2016) and obtaining significant irregularities in the counting of both the Constitutional Court’s recognition the votes. On 10 November, as the protests of re-election as a human right (2017) and continued unabated and became more vio- the Supreme Electoral Court’s authorization lent, Morales had initially announced both of his repeated candidacy (2018). In last year’s the replacement of electoral officials and general elections, serious accusations – the holding of repeat elections, only to both in Bolivia and elsewhere – of elec- resign a couple of hours later. That step had toral fraud were made after Morales’s lead been suggested – separately and in front of had grown significantly following an inter- the cameras – by both the commander-in- ruption in the speed-count. By 25 October chief of the armed forces and the chief of 2019, when the Supreme Electoral Court police (see SWP-Aktuell 69/2019). Moreover, officially declared Morales’s victory in members of the police force had joined in

the mutiny against the government and left to Mexico to seek political asylum and finally sensitive public buildings unprotected. settled in Buenos Aires, along with his vice- president, Álvaro García Linera. Argentina is the country that has the largest Bolivian dias- Transition as Prelude to a pora, including numerous MAS supporters. New Order From there, Morales coordinated political activities and gave press conferences until Jeanine Áñez, Senator for the conservative his return to Bolivia on 9 November 2020. Social-Democratic Movement and second The composition of Áñez’s first cabinet vice-president of the upper chamber, did not serve to integrate and pacify a coun- assumed the interim presidency of Bolivia try in turmoil but rather signalled an anti- on 12 November 2019. She was the highest MAS approach at the political, social, re- political authority to remain in office after gional and ethnical levels: that is, its mem- the president and vice-president of the coun- bers came from the opposition, the upper try, the presidents of both the upper and classes and mainly eastern Bolivia and were lower chambers, and the first vice-president predominantly white. Two politicians who of the Senate had all resigned. For this had run for the presidency in the 2019 elec- reason, Áñez assumed first the presidency tions were also included in the interim of the Senate and then the interim presi- president’s cabinet. All in all, she made dency of the state, which was possible only around 15 ministerial changes in her one at a joint session of the two chambers of the year in office; high-ranking (political) Plurinational Legislative Assembly attended appointments continued to take place just exclusively by parties in opposition to MAS. one week before Luis Arce’s inauguration. A first attempt to hold a session in the In a similar way behaved Karen Longaric, Senate had failed owing to the absence of a lawyer and expert in international law MAS members, who held a majority of two- from Sucre, who was appointed minister of thirds and had prevented a quorum. foreign affairs and had already held various On the night of her inauguration, Áñez positions at the Foreign Ministry. She was entered the presidential palace holding up soon making public announcements and a huge book in front of the cameras and decisions that revealed her intention to over- exclaiming “God has allowed the Bible to haul Bolivian foreign policy in terms of re-enter the Palace. May He bless us!” This both content and personnel: around 80 per pseudo-religious scene contrasted with cent of ambassadors were replaced and Morales’s policy of the secularization of the diplomatic relations with the United States Bolivian state. Áñez’s restorative emphasis restored following an 11-year interruption. anticipated the approach of her one-year transitional government, which showed signs of seeking revenge against the MAS The ‘Adaptability’ of the and its supporters, saw itself as the pre- Institutions of Law and Order cursor of “post-MASism” and cultivated ambitions of pushing through long-term Remarkably quickly, the (old) judiciary policies. From the very beginning, officials and security apparatus adapted to the new embarked on a campaign of defaming and narratives and policies of the civilian tran- stigmatizing the previous government, sitional government. In breach of consti- which was persistently labelled as narco- tutional provisions, it was the head of the terrorist. Several members of the new cabi- armed forces, Williams Kaliman, who net, first and foremost Government Minis- placed the presidential sash on Áñez at her ter Arturo Murillo, even promised that inauguration ceremony. The following day, (violent) enemies would be “hunted down”. Áñez replaced the military leadership. Considering himself to be in danger, Mora- The police and military operations under- les first went into hiding in Bolivia, then flew taken to restore public order were by no

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2 means free of excessive use of force. On of the coronavirus. On 10 March 2020, Bo- 16 November the transitional government livia reported its first two confirmed cases passed Supreme Decree No. 4078 to exempt of infection. A state of national sanitary the armed forces from any criminal liability emergency was declared under Supreme for the consequences of their actions. The Decree No. 4196 on 17 March. Four days interim president denied that any repres- later, lockdown was imposed throughout sive abuses had been committed against Bolivia (Supreme Decree No. 4199). There- civilians by the law enforcement agencies. after, Interim President Áñez introduced While the Bolivian Prosecutor-General’s successive complementary measures aimed Office supported her claim, the Inter-Ameri- at pandemic containment. can Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) As early as May 2020, the transitional documented several fatal incidents in which government, which had vocally decried the the state security forces had been involved. Morales administration for corruption and In a report released on 10 December fol- clientelism, found itself involved in a scan- lowing an IACHR observation team’s visit to dal over the alleged purchase of 170 respi- Bolivia, the commission noted the deaths rators from Spain at inflated prices. The recorded on 11 November in the Pedregal incident led to the resignation of the Boliv- neighbourhood of the South Zone of the ian minister of health. Moreover, the equip- municipality of La Paz, the massacre of ment turned out to be unfit for its intended Sacaba, Cochabamba on 15 November and purpose as it was not suitable for use in in- the massacre of Senkata, El Alto on 19 No- tensive care units. Further corruption cases vember. These repressive actions targeted (some 24 in total) engulfed the interim MAS protestors and local residents and presidency, including those related to the took place under the implementation of state-owned telecommunications (Entel), the immunity decree. The interim president oil (YPFB), electricity (ENDE) and aeronautic eventually repealed that decree on 27 No- (DGAC) companies. vember, arguing that it was no longer nec- essary as social peace had been restored. For its part, the IACHR not only condemned Voting Once Again racist acts against the indigenous people but also criticized plans of the parliament On 24 November 2019, Áñez signed Law (in which the MAS had a majority) to grant No. 1266 on the “Extraordinary and Tran- amnesty to former President Morales and sitional Regime for Holding General Elec- former Vice-President García Linera. Thus, tions”, which the MAS-controlled parlia- the transitional government squandered ment had passed. Among other things, the the opportunity to establish judicial inde- law provided for the appointment of new pendence. Instead, it put pressure on prose- judges at of the Supreme Electoral Court, cutors and judges to conduct criminal in- the annulment of the 2019 general elec- vestigations against more than 100 people, tions and the holding of repeat elections including Morales himself and others linked in 2020. At the same time, it banned those to his government, for sedition and/or ter- who had held elected office at the national rorism. level during the previous two electoral periods from running for the same office in this year’s elections. This provision pre- The Corruption of ‘Others’ vented Morales and his vice-president from running as candidates for the national ex- As the government was confronted with the ecutive once again. Yet, the MAS nominated challenge of stabilizing the country and of Morales as its candidate for Senator for the organizing new elections at the same time, Department of Cochabamba, but the Su- it soon had to deal with yet another daunt- preme Electoral Court ruled that he did not ing task – gaining control over the spread meet the constitutional requirement of hav-

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3 ing had permanent residence in the district tion results. In Santa Cruz, Camacho’s home for at least two years (Article 149). In this region and the entrepreneurial and agri- way, Morales was kept out of the running. cultural centre of Bolivia, the “We Believe” As regards the coronavirus crisis, the coalition and the civil activist group Comité elections were postponed several times. pro Santa Cruz have been organizing protests Social, rural and unionist groups linked to to contest the election results. Camacho, MAS responded to those delays by mobiliz- a right-wing populist and the defender of ing and forming roadblocks to demand an Catholic-conservative values, heads both early vote. In the end, Áñez, the parliament of these groups, which are seeking greater and the Supreme Electoral Court agreed to autonomy for the region. In the demonstra- schedule the elections for 18 October. tions against Morales in 2019, Camacho On 24 January, despite having promised played an important role; and, as the leader not to participate in the new elections, Áñez of radical regionalism, he will pose a chal- announced her own presidential candidacy. lenge both for Arce’s presidency and This decision drew considerable criticism, Bolivia’s governability. even from within the ranks of her own ad- ministration, whose cohesion was threat- ened. On 17 September, after a national The Triumph of the MAS survey on voting intentions had revealed that she could expect less than 8 per cent The MAS has re-emerged as the main po- support, Áñez withdrew her candidacy. litical force in Bolivia. It won in six of the Initially, there were eight presidential country’s nine departments as well as in candidates (six male and two female), high- the diaspora (4.7 per cent of voters live out- lighting a large degree of fragmentation side Bolivia), thereby securing control of the among the opposition forces to the MAS. national executive and an absolute majority After a couple of the candidates had dropped in both chambers of the parliament. Poor out, the anti-MAS vote was split mainly be- pandemic management, several corruption tween two strong candidates: Carlos Mesa of cases and repeated derogatory statements the centre-leftist alliance “Citizens’ Commu- about the indigenous and rural populations nity” (Comunidad Ciudadana) and Luis Fernan- had undermined the legitimacy of the tran- do Camacho of the rightist coalition “We sitional government. At the same time, its Believe” (Creemos). However, even if they had poor performance diminished the appeal united around a single candidate, the oppo- of any project of the opposition since most sition forces would still not have won against of the opposition forces pursued a common Luis Arce, the presidential candidate of the strategy of being against the MAS. MAS, who was able to claim an easy victory While the presidential candidate Mesa in the first round with 55.11 per cent of the received a majority of votes in the depart- vote (Mesa received 28.83 per cent and Cama- ments of Beni and Tarija as well as in most cho just 14 per cent). Turnout was a record cities, especially among those citizens who 88.42 per cent (under compulsory voting for have a higher education and are better off, an electorate of about 7.5 million people); the MAS was able to count on the support and the election observation missions of both of its core voters – namely, the indigenous the OAS and European Union confirmed the rural population, the poor urban popula- integrity and transparency of the elections. tion and informal workers in the suburbs. All candidates immediately accepted Moreover, it seems that it was able to win the election results, as did Interim President back the support of those who had distanced Áñez – with the exception of Camacho. themselves from the movement not because The Bolivian Episcopal Conference and of its policies but because of the personalist some members of the transitional govern- and hegemonic leadership of Morales. ment backed his critical stance and recom- Camacho, for his part, focused his cam- mended an (international) audit of the elec- paign exclusively on the interests of the

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4 lowlands in the east of the country, thereby from 2006 to 2017 (that is, for most of the fostering a regional-identitarian divide. So, time that the latter served as president). He while he won in the Department of Santa has long been seen as the third most-impor- Cruz and obtained 51.5 per cent of the vote tant leader of the MAS, after Morales and in its capital city, he received less than 1 García Linera. He is known as an indig- per cent in La Paz. During their election enous and rural activist but is also an intel- campaigns amid the Covid-induced eco- lectual who has theorized on Buen Vivir nomic crisis and the ongoing political and (Good Living), a key concept that underpins social polarization in the country, both the indigenous people’s worldview of ad- Mesa and Camacho concentrated on trying equate or harmonious coexistence. to prevent the MAS from returning to power It was, in fact, Morales who pushed and thereby missed the opportunity to through the Arce-Choquehuanca candida- explain to voters how they would seek to cies with the aim of targeting a wider spec- resolve the problems of the people. trum of voters. Several grassroots organi- By contrast, the MAS presidential and zations of the MAS had originally chosen vice-presidential candidates had a positive Choquhuanca as the presidential candidate agenda: they argued that the only common and Andrónico Rodríguez as his running enemies were the coronavirus, hunger and mate. The latter, who is a young union income insecurity. Arce summarized his leader of coca growers in Cochabamba and government programme as comprising five a rising star within MAS, will now be the short-term measures targeting the people head of the new Senate. most affected by the coronavirus crisis: Before the repeat elections, Arce acknowl- The distribution of food baskets by the edged that members of the MAS had failed to armed forces for people in need strengthen the party. He promised that they ∎ Prohibition on the dismissal of wage would not allow Morales to participate in earners in both the public and private the new government and that they – unlike ∎ sectors, including female domestic him – would not cling to power. However, workers forced to stay at home in the wake of the MAS’s electoral victory, For the duration of the quarantine, there was already evidence of attempts to payment by the state of the rents of preserve the political hegemony of the MAS. ∎ those with no fixed income The formation of solidarity brigades tasked with supporting the elderly and Ensuring Parliamentary Leverage ∎ disabled through food and medical deliveries and at-home payment services Owing to the peculiar electoral system in In coordination with municipal govern- the context of Bolivian presidentialism, the ments, the provision of shelters with can- party of the winner of the presidential elec- ∎ teens and medical staff for the homeless. tion generally secures a parliamentary Moreover, presidential candidate Arce majority, especially if the candidate suc- and vice-presidential candidate Choque- ceeds in the first round. Around half of the huanca were able to personify the renewed deputies in the parliament are elected in hopes of the economically and ethnically single-member districts by voters casting disadvantaged. For his part, Arce has over- one of their two votes, while the remaining seen Bolivia’s economic policies and suc- deputies run in multi-member constituen- cesses as minister of economy and public cies and, together with the candidates for finance since 2006 (with an interruption the presidency, the vice-presidency and the in 2017–18 owing to treatment for renal Senate, are elected on a single closed party cancer). He is considered a pragmatic and list by voters casting their other vote. There- level-headed politician who represents the fore, in the latter case, a splitting of the urban left. Choquehuanca, an indigenous vote between the executive and legislative Aymara, was Morales’s foreign minister branches is not possible.

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5 While Morales secured around 61 per The Start of the New Government cent of the vote and thereby was able to secure a two-thirds majority in both cham- After more than 14 years in power followed bers of the parliament in the 2014 elec- by a one-year interregnum, a new MAS gov- tions, Arce will have only an absolute ernment was inaugurated on 8 November majority. The MAS-dominated upper and 2020. Although Arce has engaged in some lower chambers responded to this situation self-criticism and called for unity in the coun- by amending parliamentary regulations on try, he insists – as do most MAS politicians 27–28 October – just over a week after – that the party won last year’s elections the repeat elections and a couple of days fair and square. He characterizes the events before the end of the parliamentary session that followed the vote as a coup d’état sup- (on 29 October). They lowered the threshold ported by the OAS and calls the transitional requirement in both chambers for passing government of Áñez a dictatorship. various decisions from a qualified to an The mainly socioeconomic government absolute majority, a last parliamentary act programme of the newly elected president that drew severe criticism from NGOs such comprises several elements to be tackled in as the Latin-American Network for Parlia- a staggered manner. The short-term meas- mentary Transparency and brought some ures are a draft law on a new tax on large Bolivians out onto the streets. personal wealth, industrialization through At its last session, which was held jointly import substitution, achieving security by the upper and lower chambers, the out- through food sovereignty and promoting going parliament approved the final report domestic tourism. The medium- and long- on those who had died during the confron- term measures are the production of renew- tations between the security forces and able ecological diesel to replace fuel imports, MAS supporters in Senkata (El Alto) and the industrialization of Bolivian lithium (in Sacaba (Cochabamba) in October 2019. which Germany is involved), and the Mutún Based on this document, which is to be sub- project (with Chinese participation), an iron mitted to the offices of public prosecutor, mine through which the country is aiming the attorney-general and the comptroller- to launch a steel industry. For this reason, the general, the parliament adopted a recom- agenda of the new government focuses not mendation for the incoming parliament to only on the reactivation of public investment file a liability suit against Interim President but also on the participation of international Áñez and to push for criminal prosecutions partners, while ensuring that the Bolivian against 11 ministers of her cabinet. state retains a share of more than 50 per cent. Against the backdrop of this legacy, there For their part, the grassroot organiza- is a positive feature of the new Bolivian tions attached to the MAS have demanded parliament that deserves to be highlighted. direct, substantive participation in govern- Thanks to the stricter implementation of ment. Within the broad and heterogeneous gender parity provisions, the share of women movement, access to public positions has in the parliament has now risen to 51.9 per always acted as centripetal force. For the cent. But outside the parliament, massive new president, meeting the demands of gender inequality continues to prevail. For these organizations by creating numerous example, Bolivia has one of the highest ministries pose a challenge in times of crisis, femicide rates in Latin America and the when austerity is called for. One day after Caribbean (2.3/100,000 inhabitants) while his inauguration, Arce appointed 16 minis- its abortion regulations and case law are ters – only three of them female. Morales very restrictive. Moreover, the presence of is not a member of the new cabinet, as he women in politics (descriptive representa- and Arce had earlier agreed. Instead, the tion) still has to translate into pro-women former president has let it be known that legislation and policies (substantive repre- he intends to settle in Cochabamba and sentation) as well as a culture of respect. work with the social organizations.

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6 Because of a judiciary guided by power annual growth (about 5 per cent), which, politics and that for the past year had been combined with social policy, had led to a pursuing leaders of the MAS rather than its significant reduction in poverty, the GDP rivals, Morales currently faces several dif- annual growth rate dropped to 2.2 per cent ferent criminal charges: electoral fraud in 2019. Like many countries in the region, in 2019, sedition and terrorism (over the Bolivia had experienced the reprimariza- blocking of roads), two cases of statutory tion of exports and a growing dependency rape (because of a relationship with an on imports during the commodity boom underage female) and, in a lawsuit filed (2004–13) – a dependency that continues with the International Criminal Court in to this day. The Hague, crimes against humanity. Although the MAS government has tra- According to Morales himself, there are ditionally been seen as prudent and rather about 30 trials against him. On 26 October orthodox with regard to macroeconomic the arrest warrant issued against him was management, the current state of the pub- lifted, as a result of which returning to lic finances is critical. The fiscal deficit has Bolivia no longer meant he could end up been growing since 2014 and the general in prison. One day later, arrest warrants government deficit reached 6.9 per cent of against former ministers in the Morales GDP in 2019. Currently, state expenditures administration were lifted, too. Today, Arce are rising rapidly owing to the economic acknowledges that it was a mistake of the aid measures introduced during the corona- MAS government to have introduced the virus crisis in the form of income transfers popular election of judges and recommends to households and financial support for returning to some kind of meritocratic sys- micro, small and medium-sized businesses. tem – but not to party quotas. In July 2020, unemployment stood at 11.8 Despite its experience in government, a per cent. Meanwhile, the International new era in the rule of the MAS could now Monetary Fund estimates that GDP will be about to begin owing to the changed decline around 8 per cent in 2020. conditions within the country. The political Although Bolivia was one of the first party of Evo Morales was able to win the countries in the region to respond to the elections without the former president, its pandemic by implementing containment founder and personalist leader, at the top measures, the Covid-19 incidence rate in of the electoral list. And it is Arce – who is August 2020 was 850.8 per 100,000 popu- not a union leader of coca growers but an lation and the death rate 4 per cent. The economist and technocrat – who will gov- precariousness of the country’s healthcare ern not during a commodity boom but system, the qualitative deficit of housing during the Covid-19 pandemic. and the difficulty for people living in poverty without savings to adhere to the strict lockdown and refrain from working Coronavirus Crisis in a have all contributed to the spread of the Poor Country pandemic in Bolivia. In Bolivia, around 34 per cent of the The Covid-19 pandemic reached Bolivia at population has – for various reasons – no a time when the country was wracked by health insurance, despite free and (nomi- political and social fragility under the tran- nally) universal healthcare provided by the sitional government. At the same time, the state and several private health-insurance growth of its small economy (GDP per capita schemes. Public healthcare expenditure in of just US$3,320), which relies heavily on Bolivia is the equivalent of 4.4 per cent of the extraction of natural resources, had been GDP (2017), which is just below the Latin slowing since 2015, mainly owing to the American average (4.8 per cent) and far fall in natural gas exports to Argentina and below the 6 per cent recommended by the Brazil. After more than a decade of strong World Health Organization. Moreover,

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7 Bolivia’s annual healthcare expenditure per loyal to Morales, may have opted to change capita (US$332) is one of the lowest in the sides in a timely manner. At the same time, region. Even compared with other countries it is unusual for a parliament to continue in Latin America, there is a low density of working in the wake of a coup d’état – doctors, hospital beds and intensive care even more so when the ousted ruling forces units in Bolivia, as well as deficits in medical enjoy a qualified majority in the legislature. supplies (data in this section are from the Pressure exerted both from below by the UNDP-Report of October 2020 and the IMF). mobilizations – which have been called Amid the ongoing pandemic, Arce will the Revolution of the Pititas – and from have to demonstrate that he is capable of above by the police and the military put an © Stiftung Wissenschaft dealing with a major crisis. It is unlikely end to the Morales era. The MAS managed und Politik, 2020 that policies that worked in a past charac- to win this year’s elections without the man All rights reserved terized by windfall revenues will suffice who until then had been considered the under the changed national, regional and guarantor of access to power. What hap- This Comment reflects international conditions. pened over the past year has weakened the authors’ views. Morales’s leadership; however, he will The online version of remain an important political actor. this publication contains Stumbling Into the Future The transitional government provided functioning links to other the opposition forces with a stage on which SWP texts and other relevant With regard to what has happened in Bolivia they could have proved that their claims to sources. since the 2019 general elections, it is largely be more inclusive, democratic and repub- SWP Comments are subject one-sided narratives that prevail, reflecting lican than the MAS were justified. But they to internal peer review, fact- the social and political polarization within failed to do so. The institutions of law and checking and copy-editing. the country. Moreover, events often seem order demonstrated a considerable propen- For further information on to contradict looked through clear-cut con- sity to be swayed by the winds of politics. our quality control pro- cepts, which hampers consensual under- The politicization of the judiciary and the cedures, please visit the SWP website: https://www.swp- standing. According to a widely shared judicialization of politics create a situation berlin.org/en/about-swp/ definition, a coup d’état takes place when in which the departure from power means quality-management-for- a state actor removes a head of state or gov- loss of immunity and thus exposure to legal swp-publications/ ernment illegally. Should the suggestion persecution and prosecution. Furthermore, by the commander-in-chief of the Bolivian corruption increases the vulnerability SWP armed forces and the chief of police that of actors and institutions; it affects their Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik Morales resign be regarded as his de facto behaviour twice – when they are bought German Institute for removal? On the one hand, it is unlikely and when they are later extorted by the International and that Morales would have been able to con- threat of denunciation. Security Affairs tinue to govern without the backing and All in all, it can be considered a success loyalty of the state security forces; indeed, of Bolivian democracy that the transitional Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4 10719 Berlin the head of the military placing the sash on government made possible an electoral way Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 the interim president at her inauguration out. Thus, it was no small achievement that Fax +49 30 880 07-100 sent a strong message about the political a year-long political crisis – one character- www.swp-berlin.org stance of the armed forces. On the other ized by a high degree of polarization along [email protected] hand, the positioning of the military fol- ethnic, social and regional lines as well as

ISSN 1861-1761 lowed the massive demonstrations against by outbreaks of violence – could be insti- doi: 10.18449/2020C55 electoral fraud and the umbrella organiza- tutionally channelled through free and fair tion of the Bolivian trade unions (COB), elections amid the Covid-19 pandemic. which is close to the MAS, demanding Morales’s resignation. In this situation, the head of the military, who had been long

Dr Claudia Zilla is Senior Fellow in The Americas Division at SWP. Madeleyne Aguilar Andrade is Fellow in the CrossCulture Programme of ifa (Institut für Auslandsbeziehungen).

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