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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Monday, October 5, 2020

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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Monday, October 5, 2020 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Monday, October 5, 2020 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk Will Bolivia’s Next Covid-19 Death CEO, DevryBV Sustainable Strategies Rates Reportedly Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Election Put an End Falling in Region JPMorgan Chase & Co. Latin America, which has been hit Paula Cifuentes hard by the coronavirus pandemic, Director of Economic & Fiscal Affairs, to Political Unrest? is seeing falling rates of new Latin America & Canada, Philip Morris International reported cases and deaths from Marlene Fernández Covid-19. Corporate Vice President for Page 2 Government Relations, Arcos Dorados Peter Hakim BUSINESS President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue Guyana, Exxon Donna Hrinak Sign Deal to Senior VP, Corporate Affairs, Royal Caribbean Group Develop Payara Jon E. Huenemann Offshore Oil Field Former Corporate and Government Senior Executive Guyana’s government and MAS party candidate Luis Arce (center) campaigned in Cochabamba last week. // Photo: Arce James R. Jones U.S.-based oil major ExxonMobil campaign via Twitter. Chairman, have signed an agreement for Monarch Global Strategies the development of the offshore Craig A. Kelly Interim Bolivian President Jeanine Áñez on Sept. 17 with- Payara oil field. Senior Director, Americas Page 2 Int’l Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil drew from the country’s upcoming presidential election, John Maisto saying she wanted to unify opposition against Luis Arce, the Director, U.S. Education POLITICAL Finance Group Q candidate of former President Evo Morales’ MAS party. How Nicolás Mariscal will Áñez’s withdrawal affect the race? What issues are Bolivian voters Nicaragua Eyes Chairman, Grupo Marhnos most concerned about? Will the Oct. 18 election, a redo of the country’s Legislation to Thomas F. McLarty III flawed October 2019 presidential election, raise or lower Bolivia’s level Clamp Down Chairman, McLarty Associates of political instability? on Journalists Beatrice Rangel Nicaragua’s National Assembly, Director, which President Daniel Ortega’s AMLA Consulting LLC Iván Rebolledo, managing partner of TerraNova Strategic Sandinista Party controls, is Partners and president of the Bolivian American Chamber of Jaana Remes considering legislation that would Partner, McKinsey Global Institute Commerce: “President Áñez’s withdrawal from the race was place new restrictions on journal- Ernesto Revilla long overdue. Her popularity was severely damaged when she ists working in the country. Head of Latin American A Page 2 reneged on her early pledge to serve only as a caretaker, announcing that Economics, Citi Gustavo Roosen she would run in the presidential election, alienating centrist voters. Her Chairman of the Board, controversial policies backfired, galvanizing opposition from the country’s Envases Venezolanos Andrés Rozental Indigenous majority and hindering her ability to effectively govern. Howev- President, Rozental & er, the Covid pandemic and its ensuing economic crisis were determining Asociados factors in her decision to withdraw. With her exit, there are now just two Shelly Shetty Managing Director, Sovereigns viable conservative candidates (Mesa and Camacho), severely curtailing Fitch Ratings Luis Arce’s chance of a first-round victory. One can assume that the most pressing issues to the average Bolivian voter would include: how the gov- ernment will continue to confront the pandemic, school reopenings and economic reactivation (employment and basic services). The persistent issues of weak governance, political volatility, crippled public institutions and economic hardship will plague whoever wins the Oct. 18 election. Ortega // File Photo: Nicaraguan Government. Continued on page 3 COPYRIGHT © 2020, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Monday, October 5, 2020 POLITICAL NEWS has nearly recovered from Covid-19, Reuters NEWS BRIEFS reported. Giammattei has described himself as Covid-19 Death Rates a high-risk patient because of pre-existing med- At Least Six Killed as ical conditions and his excess body weight. Tropical Storm Gamma Reportedly Falling On Friday, Giammattei wished U.S. President Donald Trump, who tested positive for the Hits Mexico’s Yucatán in Latin America disease last week, a speedy recovery. [Editor’s At least six people were killed, and thousands note: See related Q&A in the Sept. 8 issue of had to evacuate, in southeastern Mexico as Latin America, one of the regions hit hardest the Advisor.] Tropical Storm Gamma hit the Yucatán Penin- by the coronavirus pandemic, is seeing a slow- sula with winds that nearly reached hurricane down in new cases and deaths from Covid-19, Nicaragua Eying levels in Tabasco and Chiapas states, authori- The Wall Street Journal reported Friday. Across ties said Sunday, the Associated Press report- the region, the novel coronavirus has killed Legislation to Clamp ed. Mexico’s civil defense agency said that more than 300,000 people since the pandemic four of the deaths were caused by a landslide began, with its economic effects plunging Down on Journalists in Chiapas, while the other two deaths were millions back into poverty and wiping out years registered in Tabasco, where water dragged of economic and social gains in the region. Nicaragua’s National Assembly is considering away one person, and another drowned. However, slowdowns in new cases and deaths legislation that would place new restrictions are leading to cautious hope from experts, on journalists, The Washington Post reported the newspaper reported. Brazil has among Sunday. One measure would require journal- Guatemala Halts Caravan, the highest reported daily death tolls from ists who work for foreign media companies Covid-19 in the world, at more than 700, but the to register with Nicaragua’s government as Returns Thousands of country has experienced a nearly 40 percent foreign agents and refrain from “intervening in Honduran Migrants drop in deaths from the disease since July and questions, activities or matters of internal poli- Authorities in Guatemala said Saturday that a more than 40 percent decline in new cases tics,” the newspaper reported. Another piece of they have sent more than 3,000 Honduran mi- since then, The Wall Street Journal reported. legislation would set jail sentences of as long grants back to their home country, halting most Mexico’s number of reported Covid-19 deaths as four years for people using a computer to of a caravan of migrants that had been heading peaked at more than 800 in June, but it has spread “false and/or misrepresented informa- north toward the United States, Reuters recorded fewer than 600 deaths a day for the tion which causes alarm.” Opponents of the reported. Thousands of Hondurans had entered past six weeks. Since August, Colombia’s new measures say the government of President Guatemala from Honduras last Thursday, push- cases have declined approximately 40 percent, Daniel Ortega, whose party holds a majority in ing past Guatemalan troops. As of Saturday, and its daily number of deaths has fallen the National Assembly, could use the measures more than 3,500 migrants had “opted to return,” by half during that time. “Across the region to target anyone writing anything unfavorable Guatemala’s government said. we’ve seen a high level of deaths and cases to the government. A vote could come as early since the end of May but these numbers are as this week. [Editor’s note: See related Q&A in now slowly starting to fall,” Eliseu Waldman, the Sept. 16 issue of the Advisor.] an epidemiologist at the University of São A.M. Best Removes Paulo, told The Wall Street Journal. Brazil has Barbados’ Ocean Re the world’s third-highest number of reported BUSINESS NEWS cases of Covid-19, at more than 4.9 million, From Under Review behind the United States and India, according A.M. Best on Friday affirmed its financial to Johns Hopkins University. Brazil also has Guyana, Exxon Sign strength rating of A- and its long-term issuer the second-highest reported death toll from the Deal to Develop credit rating of a- of the Barbados-based Ocean disease, at more than 146,000, after only the International Reinsurance Company, also United States. Several world leaders, including Payara Oil Field removing it from under review. The agency’s Latin American heads of state, are among outlook for the ratings is stable. A.M. Best cit- those who have contracted Covid-19. In Latin Guyana has signed a deal with U.S. oil giant ed Ocean’s Re’s “balance sheet strength, which America, the presidents of Brazil, Honduras, ExxonMobil for the development of the Payara A.M. Best categorizes as strongest, as well as Guatemala and Bolivia have tested positive for offshore field, the company announced last its adequate operating performance, neutral the disease. On Friday, Guatemala’s govern- week in a statement. Exxon said it had made business profile and appropriate enterprise ment said President Alejandro Giammattei its final investment decision to proceed with risk management” as the reasons behind the ratings. COPYRIGHT © 2020, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Monday, October 5, 2020 the development after receiving government FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 approvals. Payara, the third project in the Stabroek oil block, is expected to produce as The recent ratings downgrade, primarily due interim government. A Mesa presidency many as 220,000 barrels of crude per day after to weaker foreign exchange earnings, has could mark a return to brokered democracy starting operations in 2024, Exxon said. The Bolivia in its first formal recession since (1982-2004), when parties without clear $9 billion investment “will target an estimated the 1980s—which is another hurdle that political affinities divided up ministries and resource base of about 600 million oil-equiv- the new president will have to quickly deal government institutions, leading to gridlock. alent barrels” and is set to include 10 drill with.
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