Master’s Thesis

The Upsurge of Ethno-Nationalism and Ethiopia’s Fragile Democracy

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ACKNOWLEDGMENT

There are several individuals and institutions who supported me throughout my study period that deserves acknowledgment. Though it is difficult to mention all in this piece, I would like to reflect on some of them.

First, I would like to thank my supervisor, Jonas Ewald (Ph.D.), who carefully guided me throughout my research. His invaluable guidance and encouragement has not only helped me to successfully complete the thesis but also has impacted my scholarly faculty and immensely taught me how scientific research can be conducted

Second, this thesis has been produced during my scholarship period at Linnaeus University, which was funded by the Swedish Institute. I would like to thank the Swedish Institute for the funding and for all the support I received during my studies. Without your financial support, it would have been inconceivable for me to come here and study at Linnaeus University in Sweden.

Thirdly, I am also indebted to thank my home university (Assosa University) for giving me paid study leave throughout my study time.

Last but not least, I would like to thank all my parents and friends for your moral and material support during my study time. I would, particularly, like to single out my wife Kassanesh Asfaw, my son Shinon Tsegaye and daughter Hermon Tsegaye; your love and encouragement have always been with me in all those days.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH ALL!!

Tsegaye Birhanu

Linnaeus University, Vaxjo, Sweden

May 2021

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Table of Contents Page ACKNOWLEDGMENT ...... i ACRONYMS ...... iv ABSTRACT ...... vi CHAPTER ONE ...... 1 INTRODUCTION ...... 1 1.1. Background of the Study...... 1 1.2. Problem Statement ...... 3 1.3. Justification and Relevance of the Study ...... 4 1.4. Objective and Research questions ...... 5 1.5. Limitation of the Study ...... 5 1.6. Organization of the Study ...... 6 CHAPTER TWO ...... 7 LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ...... 7 2.1. Introduction ...... 7 2.2. The Debate on the nexus between Ethno-nationalism and Democracy ...... 7 2.3. Ethno-nationalism in other Parts of the World ...... 9 2.4. Ethno-nationalism and Democratization in Ethiopia ...... 10 CHAPTER THREE ...... 14 CONCEPTUAL AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ...... 14 3.1. Introduction ...... 14 3.2. Important Concepts ...... 14 3.3. Theories of Ethnicity ...... 16 CHAPTER FOUR ...... 18 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY ...... 18 4.1. Research Methodology ...... 18 4.1.1. Methods of Data Collection ...... 18 4.1.2. Method of Data Analysis ...... 19 4.2. Research Design and Line of Reasoning ...... 20 4.3. Ethical Considerations ...... 20 CHAPTER FIVE ...... 22 FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS...... 22 5.1. Introduction ...... 22 5.2. Competing Nationalisms in Ethiopia ...... 23 5.2.1. Pan-Ethiopianism ...... 23 5.2.2. Ethno-nationalism in context ...... 24 5.3. The Upsurge of Ethno-nationalism and its Impact on Democracy in Ethiopia...... 26 5.3.1. Democracy in Peril: Protests, Violent Conflicts and the War in Tigray ...... 27 5.3.2. Democracy in Peril: The Postponement of Election and its Repercussion ...... 29

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5.4. The Underlying Factors for the Upsurge of Ethno-nationalism and Violent Conflicts in Ethiopia ...... 30 5.4.1. Historical Narratives Inculcating Animosity, Mistrust and Ethnic Rivalry ...... 30 5.4.2. Politicization and Institutionalization of Ethnicity ...... 32 5.4.3. Economic Setbacks- Unemployment and Inflation ...... 34 5.4.4. Weak institutions...... 35 5.4.5. Regional and International Dynamics ...... 38 5.5. The way Forward ...... 39 5.5.1. Institution Building ...... 40 5.5.3. Inclusive Dialogue ...... 41 5.5.4. Security Sector Reform ...... 43 5.5.5. Inclusive Economic Development ...... 44 5.5.6. Strengthening Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) ...... 45 5.5.7. International Support...... 46 CHAPTER SIX ...... 49 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 49 REFERENCES ...... 52 Annex: List Interviews ...... 63

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ACRONYMS

AFP- Agence France Press

AU- African Union

CADRD- Center for Advancement of Rights and Democracy

CPI- Corruption Perception Index

CSO- Civil Society Organization

DW- Doche Welle

EHRC- Ethiopian Human Rights Commission

ELF-Eritrean Liberation Front

ENA- Ethiopian News Agency

ENDF- Ethiopian National Defence Force

EPRDF- Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front

EU- European Union

FDRE- Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

GDP- Gross Domestic Product

GERD- Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

GoE- Government of Ethiopia

HOA- Horn of Africa

ICG- International Crisis Group

IDEA- Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance

IOM- International Organization for Migration

IPSS-Institute of Peace and Security Studies

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KI- Key Informant

NDI- National Democracy Institute

NGO- Non-Governmental Organization

OFC- Oromo Federalist Congress

OLA- Oromo Liberation Army

OLF- Oromo Liberation Front

ONLF- Ogaden National Liberation Front

SDG- Sustainable Development Goal

TPLF- Tigrian Liberation Front

UCDP- Uppsala Conflict Data Program

UN- United Nations

USA- United States of America

VOA- Voice of America

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ABSTRACT

By exploring the upsurge of the new wave of ethno-nationalism and its effect on institutions of democracy in Ethiopia, this study attempts to contribute to the study of fragile democracy in highly divided states. Methodologically, it is qualitative research where key informant interviews and literature review were employed to collect the needed data. Nine participants including researchers, analysts, and journalists participated in the key informant interview. Ethiopia, the second-most populous African country, is a multi-national ancient country with a long history of statehood. The country’s fragile nature of democracy is suffering from shrinking political space. The national election was postponed twice, and the popular political parties withdrawn from the rescheduled election. Unfortunately, this was accompanied by the unfolding ethnic conflicts in different parts of the country and it is reported that election will not be conducted in places under conflict. These have overshadowed Ethiopia’s transition to democracy which was hailed across the country and beyond in 2018 and 19. The conventional wisdom employed often in elaborating challenges to democratization has been pointing fingers at the incumbent regime. This research, however, argues that though the incumbent government, as the dominant actor should take its share of responsibility, the problem in Ethiopia is beyond that. The deeply entrenched institutionalization of ethnicity; contradictory interpretation of historical narratives; accumulated age-old grievances, and polarized relations among the actors are the factors for the crisis that has been threatening to tear the country apart. The role of economic inequality, corruption, soaring inflation and unemployment have been significant by creating enabling environment for the mobilization of lumpen youth for violent conflict. Apart from that, due to the country’s strategic location in the volatile Horn of African region and the hydro-politics, the regional and international political dynamics have also been impacting peace and development in Ethiopia. This study argues bailing the country out of this crisis and preventing potential disintegration needs deepening democracy and a change of political culture at the national level. Strengthening the role of CSOs and enhancing support from the international community will also be decisive.

Keywords: Ethiopia, ethno-nationalism, democracy, ethnicity, democratization

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CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background of the Study

At the time of this study, Ethiopia was at a crossroads. At the national level, putting democracy in peril, the national election was postponed twice; the security and human rights situation is deteriorating, the ethnic-based conflict in the country was unfolding (Human Rights Watch, 2021); the parliament categorized the Tigrian People Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA1) as terrorist organizations; popular political parties withdrawn from the rescheduled election (The Reporter, 8 May 2021). Many lost hopes and argued the window of opportunity opened for potential dialogue and peaceful resolution of conflict is lost and gone. At the regional level, the conflict in Ethiopia was internationalized with the direct involvement of foreign powers (BBC, 27 January 2021). In addition, the tripartite negotiation among the riparian countries on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is stalled (ENA, July 15, 2021). Egypt threatening no country can use a drop of its share of Nile water (Aljazeera, 31 March 2021; France 24, 3 May 2021) citing the 1929 and 1959 colonial treaties to which Ethiopia was not a party (Yakob, 2011). The international community was in dilemma of which policy to adopt and what to do regarding Ethiopia. All these issues happening in the country are directly or indirectly related to the fragility of democracy and the upsurge of ethno-nationalism. This can best be studied in a multi-level multi-dimensional analysis which needs a thorough examination of its local, national, regional and international dimensions.

The rising nationalism is not limited to Ethiopia, rather it is a global phenomenon impacting local and global governance. According to Csergo (2018), since the 2010s nationalism is enduring an unprecedented rise at the global level. It emerges when identity questions turn into political movements (Fukayama, 2018). Evidence from literature reveals that the type and impact of nationalism differ depending upon the nature and composition of the state (see chapter 2, for more details). Multi-ethnic states are often the states most impacted by competing nationalisms. Horwitz (1998) argued that identity in general and ethnicity, in particular, is a powerful force in the politics of multi-ethnic states with its repercussions on democracy and peace and development.

1 The Oromo Liberation Army sometimes called Shane is an armed group, led by Jal Mero operating in Oromia region and fighting against the incumbent regime. 1

More than 90 % of the world states are ethnically diverse by their nature (Yonathan, 2010; Collier, 1998; Stanovcic, 1992). Of course, ethnic diversity by itself is not a problem. If properly handled, it may enrich the country, however, its tendency to find expression in open conflicts presents a challenge to many ethnically divided countries (Stanovcic, 1992). Most of the conflicts in these states are usually horizontal, between and among ethnic groups (Wig and Kromrey, 2018). That means the peace, democratization, and overall development of these countries depend on the way they can effectively manage their diversity. Ethno- nationalism is often considered as one of the barriers that directly or indirectly hinder the peace, development, and territorial integrity of many multi-national states. The proliferation of quest for autonomy, secessionist moves, and fragmentation in local and international politics shows the apparent rise of nationalism in the post-cold war global order (Annett, 2001; Stanovcic, 1992).

In many multi-ethnic countries, in different parts of the world, ethnicity was often politicized through the emergence of ethno-nationalism. Historically, ethno-nationalism created an ethnic rivalry and violent conflicts which disintegrated many countries. For instance, Monsell (2017) argued that between 1989 and 1992, Yugoslavia descended into a series of ethnic- based civil conflicts, which disintegrated the country into smaller pieces. The country had also experienced the worst ethnic cleansing in Europe since the Holocaust which could be ascribed to ethnonationalism in the country (Ibid). In a similar vein, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR), and other countries in Eastern Europe had similar experiences which ended up with disintegration (Stanovcic, 1992). In east Africa, the emergence of Eritrea and South Sudan in 1991 and 2011 respectively seceding from Ethiopia and Sudan was also ascribed to ethnonationalism and subsequent armed struggle which took decades.

Apart from the disintegration and fragmentation of states, the rise of nationalist leaders and regimes is becoming a common phenomenon in contemporary global politics. The ascendance of nationalist leaders and political parties can be considered as a manifestation of the global rise of nationalism (Csergo, 2018). The ascendance of Donald Trump to the presidency in the US, the British’s withdrawal from the European Union, the secessionist referendum in Scotland, quests for autonomy in Spain, Iraq, Nigeria, ethnic conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan, and other countries reveals the surge of nationalism at the global level. Francis Fukuyama in his thought-provoking work published in 2018, eloquently argued that the rise of identity politics threatens developed liberal democracies as well as developing

2 fragile democracies. He further noted that “the world should work to have a more universal understanding of human dignity otherwise society will doom into conflict” (Fukayama, 2018:10).

From the above discussion, it can be understood that civic-nationalism and ethno-nationalism are global phenomena impacting local and global governance. This research, however, aims to contribute to the study of fragile democracy in highly divided states by examining the recent upsurge of ethno-nationalism in Ethiopia. Ethiopia, a multi-ethnic and the second most populous African country (World Bank, 2019), is, currently, in a crisis of competing nationalism. Ethnically divided powerful regional states in the country are at loggerheads threatening to tear the country apart (ICG, 2021). The upsurge of ethno-nationalism and subsequent violent conflict, particularly, in the Tigray region (the northern part of the country) and Benishangul Gumuz region (in western Ethiopia) have been causing thousands of deaths and internal displacements. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP, 2019) report indicates that from the year 2015-2019, 1822 people died in Ethiopia due to violent conflict. This is without including figures for the deadliest year of 2020. On the other hand, the International Crisis Group (ICG, 2021) report indicates that the violent conflict that erupted on November 4, 2020, in the northern part of Ethiopia displaced more than a million internally while 50,000 fled to Sudan. Generally, ethnic identity-based politics remained the mover and shaker of local politics. As a result, I argue Ethiopia presents an important case to study where the rise of ethnonationalism has been impacting institutions of democracy and democratization.

Having this general backdrop, this research attempted to analyse how the competing nationalisms in the country are causing havoc to the very survival of the Ethiopian state. The research aims to explore the recent upsurge of ethnonationalism and its repercussion on the already fragile democracy in the country. Finally, the research attempts to pinpoint future scenarios and identify the possible ways to deepen democracy in ethnically divided societies.

1.2. Problem Statement

As a matter of historical fact, Ethiopia’s political liberalization in the last four years has coincided with the upsurge of a new wave of ethnonationalism and violent ethnic conflict in different parts of the country (Semir, 2019; IPSSS, 2020). Bado (2014) argued that in the presence of ethnonationalism, political liberalization tends to transform itself into a competition ground between indomitable ethnic identities. This is apparently happening in

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Ethiopia where the opened political space had, unfortunately, served as an enabling ground to competing ethnonationalism in the country. The nexus and compatibility between ethnonationalism, democracy, and peace and development is contested (Beissinger, 2008). Of course, ethno-nationalism is a two-sided sword which can be both a product of or contributor to fragile democracy. Csergo (2018) argued civic nationalism is more democratic than ethnonationalism which often bases on exclusive ethnic cleavages in society. On the other hand, some writers (Beissinger, 2002; Jalata, 2001) consider ethnonationalism as an important contributor to democracy and overall development. This is usually due to its capability to easily mobilize protest against dictatorship which may end up installing a democratic system.

Scholars and practitioners alike agree that democratization is a long process and a journey without an end (Burnell, 2011) and full of ups and downs. According to Huntington (1991), in some cases, it may face reversals. In the same vein, Ethiopia’s progress towards democratization is also accompanied by several challenges that can be ascribed to local, regional, and international factors. The upsurge of competing ethnonationalism accompanied by polarized mainstream and social media activism has been the dominant factor which this research wants to investigate. Until recently, Ethiopia was considered as a model for bringing peace and development in a highly divided society (Monsell, 2017). After the end of the cold war, for over a quarter of a century, the Ethiopian state managed to be politically and economically stable country (Ibid) in the conflict-prone Horn of African region. In this regard, Monsell (2017) further argued that since 1991, despite the ethnic state structure, ethnic nationalism had not galvanized credible challenges to the centripetal forces. But in the last few years, this argument manifestly failed to hold water as the country was engulfed by violent inter-ethnic violence mobilized by the upsurge of a new wave of ethnonationalism in the country.

1.3. Justification and Relevance of the Study

The researcher believes this research will be relevant for two main reasons. Firstly, it will contribute to the attempt of filling the research gap in the existing literature. Evidence from the review of the literature reveals that the upsurge of ethnonationalism and its impact on peace and development in Ethiopia presents a unique case that deserves critical study. By critically studying the case in Ethiopia, this research will contribute to the study of highly divided fragile democracies.

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Secondly, this research will also have significance for policy decision-making at different levels. Evidence shows that the recent political development occurring in Ethiopia has received the attention of the international community. Ethiopia is an aid-dependent country (Tadesse, 2021), receiving over 4 billion USD per year since 2016 (The World Bank Data, 2021). Multilateral and bilateral donor countries are in dilemma and reconsidering their approach with Ethiopia. This study attempted to pinpoint the way the international community can support the country’s development endeavor. This indicates that the significance of this research will not only be expanding the knowledge horizon on the topic but also will have significance for policy and practice.

1.4. Objective and Research questions

This research aims to explore the upsurge of ethnonationalism in Ethiopia and the repercussion it has on the country’s democratization endeavor. The study also attempts to identify future scenarios and pinpoint the way Ethiopia can deepen democracy.

The main research questions this study attempts to answer are:

• Why does ethnonationalism become prominent at the expense of pan-Ethiopianism in the country?

• How is the upsurge of ethnonationalism hampering the country’s transition towards democracy?

• How can the country transcend ethnonationalism and deepen democracy?

1.5. Limitation of the Study

This study is not without limitations. First, the project is designed to be conducted within a very limited time and resources. All the methods and strategies are designed taking into consideration these constraints. Concerning time, this research was conducted in ten weeks. Second, in the literature review section (see chapter 2), it was indicated that due to the recentness of the topic, there is scanty academic research on the recent upsurge of ethnonationalism in Ethiopia. However, the topic under study is widely discussed in different corners, media outlets, government, and international organization reports which immensely helped this research as a source of data.

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1.6. Organization of the Study

This research is organized into six chapters. The second chapter is devoted to a review of the literature and positioning the thesis within the context of prior studies. The third chapter discusses the conceptual/theoretical framework. This section helped the research to develop the theoretical and analytical foundation of the thesis. Methodological toolkits employed to collect and analyze data were enunciated in the fourth chapter. The fifth chapter presented the major findings and analysis. Finally, in the sixth chapter, the conclusion and recommendations drawn from the findings herald the culmination of the research.

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CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

2.1. Introduction

Ethno-nationalism remained one of the underlying factors for state formation. Evidence reveals that in highly divided societies, ethno-nationalism is on the rise impacting democratization and peace and development. As a result, the topic has received the attention of scholars. To position the research problem within a context of related studies and guide the study towards achieving its objective, this chapter attempts to review the available literature. For the sake of this research, of course, at risk of simplification, I have categorized the academic debate on the topic into three. The first category of literature discussed the nexus between ethno-nationalism and democracy; the second category of the literature is about ethno-nationalism in different parts of the world and finally, the third one discussed the literature on ethno-nationalism and democratization in Ethiopia.

2.2. The Debate on the nexus between Ethno-nationalism and Democracy

Writings on democratization indicate that there is a nexus between democracy and peace which are, particularly, in divided societies impacted by ethno-nationalism (Annett, 2001; Horwitz, 1998; Collier, 19998; Agbu, 2004). The controversy, however, remains on whether their relationship is compatible or contradictory (Agbu, 2004). Some scholars argued that their relationship is complicated, multifaceted, and full of tensions and paradoxes (Lecours and Moreno, 2010). Depending upon various contexts, ethno-nationalism can either contribute to or impede democratization and peace and development. This reveals the presence of two-sided debate on the issue.

The first group of scholars focused on the tension and contradiction between ethno- nationalism, democracy, and peace and development. They argued that in fragile democracies, ethnic cleavages are prone to violent conflicts which can negatively impact democratization and overall development (Annett, 2001; Horwitz, 1998; Collier, 19998). In a highly divided society, political liberalization may unleash hitherto oppressed groups to mobilize their respective ethnic groups to rebel (Agbu, 2004). Ethno-nationalists often misuse the opened political space to inculcate the sentiment of intolerance or exclusion which are in clear contradiction with democracy (Lecours and Moreno, 2010). In such circumstances, ethno-nationalism may end up spoiling peace and development in a country. Pelege (2010)

7 also argued that in highly divided societies, there is inherent tension and incompatibility between democracy and ethno-nationalism. Democracy aims to guarantee equal rights to all citizens with a mechanism for protection to minorities but ethno-nationalism struggles to exclusively enhance the position of a particular group (Ibid).

Paul Collier (2019), pointed that at the time of transition, liberalization and election exacerbate violence and increase the risks of reverting to conflict. He noted that instead of democracy, growth and economic recovery will be important for peace and development in fragile and post-conflict states (Collier, 2019). In a similar vein, Csergo (2018) has also argued that Ethno-nationalism undermines the prospect for inter-ethnic peace and democratic development in multi-ethnic countries. Ethno-nationalism “tempts politicians to play ethnic cards” (Beissinger, 2002: 90) either to win elections or consolidate their power. They use control over the economy or mass media to inculcate exclusionary nationalism in the people. (ibid).

In Political Science, democratization and the conditions that may lead to democratic consolidation or backsliding are well articulated. The most renowned author in this field is Samuel Huntington with his ground-breaking work “The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late 20th Century” which was published in 1991. According to Huntington (1991); Hagaard and Kaufman (2006), weak institutions, and social and political polarization will lead to democratic backsliding. This means ethno-nationalism which more often than not ends in the polarization of ethnic relations will be a setback for democracy and overall development. Generally speaking, authors in this group vehemently argued that politicization of ethnicity by political leaders and elites results in polarized institutions that drain trust and culture of tolerance among ethnic groups that undermine democracy and overall development (Beissinger, 2002; Lecours and Moreno, 2010).

On the other hand, there are a group of scholars who indicated the compatibility and mutually reinforcing relationship between ethno-nationalism, democratization, and peace and development. This group of scholars argued that ethno-nationalism and democracy can thrive together and contribute to peace and development. For instance, Beissinger (2002) argued that under the right conditions ethno-nationalism can work for the rise and consolidation of democracy. Politically mobilized ethnicity and democracy can go together (Ibid). Ethno- nationalism is also understood as a movement for liberation and emancipation by ousting foreign rulers or restructuring oppressive regimes (Jalata, 2001). Putting in other words,

8 ethno-nationalism is associated with emancipation and the fight against colonialism (Ibid). It challenges authoritarian rule, serves as a glue to society, and may install a democratic system. Ethno-nationalism speaks for freedom, equality and galvanizes public support which makes it compatible with democracy. Under such circumstances, it can be compatible with and contribute to democracy.

There is ample evidence where democracy blossoms in the presence of ethnic diversity. India presents a good example (Beissinger, 2002). On the other hand, there are homogenous countries where seeds of democracy struggling to germinate. For instance, Somalia a nation- state struggling towards transitioning to democracy presents a good example. There is no doubt in the assertion that democratization can be an important condition for development. It can be a solution for many potential conflicts by reducing the risk of violence through enhancing the capacity of institutions to prevent and resolve conflicts (Collier, 19989).

2.3. Ethno-nationalism in other Parts of the World

As it was indicated earlier in this research, ethno-nationalism is a global phenomenon impacting local and global governance. As a result, the topic was studied in different parts of the world. Most importantly, the studies conducted in eastern Europe and some African countries are worth mentioning for their significance to the topic under study. Assefa Jalata (2001) has indicated that the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, dismantling of apartheid in South Africa, the secessions of Eritrea from Ethiopia in 1991, and South Sudan from Sudan in 2011 are all ascribed to the role ethno-nationalism played in liberation struggles. This means, the assertion that stressed in multi-ethnic states, ethno-nationalism may endanger the right of minorities and at worst may put the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state in question (Stanovcic, 1992) holds water. Research has also indicated that, despite disintegrating bigger states, ethno-nationalism has also contributed to the consolidation of democracy. Successful democracies that emerged out of the ashes of the USSR highly depended on ethnic nationalism to install democratic regimes (Beissenger, 2002). According to Beissenger (2002), democratization in the Baltic region, for instance in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania became stable because the polish speaking and Russian- speaking minorities fairly integrated into the newly configured political system which prevented ethnic violence. Experience from these countries indicates that the stability and continued existence of the state depend on the ability of the system to integrate all sections of society.

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African countries have another experience. The incompatibility between political liberalization and ethno-nationalism during transition periods was widely used as an excuse to put in place military regimes or one-party rules in the continent mainly in the 1960s and 70s (Osaghae, 1999). This logic was used by one-party regimes of Daniel Arap Moi of Kenya and Omar Bonga of Gabon among prominent one-party rule proponents of African leaders (Ibid). Currently, most of the conflicts are between ethnic groups rather than with the government (Wig and Kromrey, 2018). For instance, the case in South Sudan shows that ethno-nationalism will not always end in installing a democratic system which they used as the justifiable cause of their struggle to mobilize the people.

After seceding from Sudan and Ethiopia, South Sudan and Eritrea, respectively, are both ended in a crisis of democracy. In Eritrea, thirty years of war which was culminated in establishing an independent state has failed to deliver neither liberty nor prosperity (Gebru, 2009). The country is under an authoritarian regime without an election and regime change since independence. On the other hand, South Sudan is in ethnic conflict since its secession from Sudan. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) Report revealed that since 2013 over 400,000 people have died with 4.1 million people displaced in search of safety in the country as well as in neighboring countries (IOM, 2019). According to the Fragile States Index Global Data (2020), South Sudan was ranked as the third most fragile state in the world. This tells its own story about the situation, where promises of ethno-nationalism as a bearer of emancipation, hope and aspirations of bringing peace, democracy and prosperity faded away immediately after secession.

2.4. Ethno-nationalism and Democratization in Ethiopia

The review of available literature indicates the presence of many scholarships produced on ethno-nationalism and democratization in Ethiopia. For the sake of this research, I categorized ethno-nationalism in Ethiopia into two. First, ethno-nationalism in Ethiopia has followed armed struggle with the establishment of centripetal and centrifugal armed groups. Before 1991, this was considered as the only available way, as there was no room for opposition parties to function under the then imperial and dictatorial regimes of Ethiopia (Asnake, 2011). The second dimension of ethno-nationalism in the country has used another track where ethnic political parties and media outlets were legally allowed to function in the country in post-1991 Ethiopia. With further polarization of ethnic relations in the country, ethno-nationalism is arguably at its peak (Semir, 2019) where civil protest and rebellion

10 organized along Ethnic lines were used as the best strategy to fight injustice in the country. This one is recent by its nature and received more attention from the media but less from academia.

The first type of ethno-nationalism is old by its nature that dates back to the mid-20th century. As a result, it has received much attention from academia. For instance, Jalata (2001) has studied Oromo nationalism and their armed struggle against the central government in Ethiopia. He argued that the Oromo nationalism is for emancipation and liberation which, according to Jalata (2001) had never contradicted with ideals of democracy. The central role of elites in articulating the agenda, mobilizing the mass was emphasized by many authors. For instance, Merrera (2004) argued that the political elite in Ethiopia has played a significant role by “synthesizing the ideology of nationalism, setting the agenda, organizing the nationalist movement” (2004:28).

In contrary to the aforementioned points, Liam Monsell in a work published in 2017 argued that ethno-nationalism in Ethiopia has not challenged national unity and sense of belongingness in the country. According to Monsell (2017), ethno-nationalism and peace development are thriving where the country remained relatively peaceful for around a quarter of a century in the conflict-prone region of the Horn of Africa. The weakness in this study and argument is its inability to examine where the country is heading, how ethnicity is being politicized and institutionalized which in long run creates more problems than it solves. Of course, the time this study was done was immediately after the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. At that time, Ethiopia was under a strong big state with a clear ideological orientation tilting towards the southeast Asian Developmental state model. At that time, the country had depoliticized society. My argument here is had Monsell wrote this research after 2018 he might not conclude that ethno-nationalism is not creating a problem in Ethiopia which it has been creating in the Balkan region.

Challenges to democratization in Ethiopia have received much attention among scholars that studied Ethiopian politics. The works of (Clapam, 2004 and Merera, 2012;) are worth mentioning in this regard. Merera (2012) has raised how non-competitive election and the emergence of electoral authoritarianism negatively impacted the country’s attempt of deepening democracy. On the other hand, Clapam (2004) has stressed that culture, structural problems, and short experience of democracy remained the dominant challenges for Ethiopia’s democratization. On the other hand, Mengisteab (2001) associated

11 democratization in Ethiopia with the federal state structure which was for the first time adopted in the country in 1991. He indicated that though in theory, ethnic-based federalism called for devolution of power, in reality, the state remained under the centralized rule where the strained ethnic relation and call for more autonomy were not answered.

Thirdly, there are very few works that paid attention to the role of non-governmental actors (Asnake, 2011; Salih et al, 2018; Semir, 2019). Asnake in his work published in 2011, approached the challenge to Ethiopia’s democracy from another point of view where he paid attention to the often-overlooked point. He has studied how the problem within the opposition political parties has been hampering Ethiopia’s move towards democracy. The most recent and comprehensive view of democratization in Ethiopia was published by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung edited by Salih et al in 2018. This report, which was a collection of conference papers, has outlined how Ethiopia is transitioning to democracy. The most important point in this report is it attempted to shed light on the role of non-state actors of democracy (Media, CSOs, political parties). As this work was produced exactly during the transition, it had more of a positive and optimistic view about developments in Ethiopia’s political trajectory. A year later, as the honeymoon for Abiy Administration fading away, Semir (2019) has discussed the drivers of the conflict in Ethiopia and how the fragility of institutions is playing a role in it.

After reviewing available literature on Ethno-nationalism and democracy in Ethiopia I argue that there is a gap in the existing literature that amplifies the significance of this research. First, the visible research gap in this category of literature is they have not taken into account the recent institutionalization of the competing ethnic-nationalism in the country accompanied by polarized mainstream media and social media activism. This will be the focus of this research.

Second, though some of the works discussed the challenges of democratic development in the country, they were mostly old which can’t explain the current political dynamics in Ethiopia. I argue that the second decade of the 21st century has offered unique opportunities and challenges for democratization in Ethiopia. In this decade, two important and peaceful transitions of power albeit within the same party occurred in the country which was not anticipated by the above writers.

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The very few recent works that explored the recent situation in Ethiopia are either very short reports or collection of conference papers which can serve as a very good steppingstone for this research project. But still, the recent upsurge of ethno-nationalism accompanied by polarized institutions and social media activism which will be the kernel of this research project was not discussed in the existing literature. These reveal the relevance of this research.

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CHAPTER THREE

CONCEPTUAL AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

3.1. Introduction

Ethno-nationalism has received the attention of several theorists and scholars at different times. Classical Marxists argued that ethno-nationalism will be inevitably replaced by class consciousness (Jalata, 2001). In contrary to this, Karl Marx’s prediction, however, most contemporary conflicts are characterized as ethno-nationalist conflicts rather than revolutionary class struggles (Wimmer, 2013). Modernization theorists have also associated ethno-nationalism with backwardness and argued that continued socio-economic development will ultimately make it obsolete (Jalata, 2001). Proving the presumptions of these old theories wrong, in reality, ethno-nationalism was neither replaced by class consciousness nor become obsolete with sustained socio-economic progress. The growing democratization and globalization have been, unfortunately, accompanied by an upsurge of ethno-nationalism in the 21st century (Balbanis et al, 2001). This chapter attempts to shed light on important concepts and theories associated with the topic under study.

3.2. Important Concepts

Instead of directly indulging in data analysis, defining important concepts and exploring theories associated with ethno-nationalism and democracy will be important. Hence, concepts like democracy, democratization, ethnicity, and ethno-nationalism are enunciated briefly as follows.

Democracy and democratization are closely related where the prior indicates the essence while the latter is about transitions and the process. Democracy is “a combination of institutions and processes which guarantee representative government and popular participation” (Osaghae, 1999:261). It is a system of government that allows people to influence decision-making through periodic elections where they can sanction political parties (Merrera, 2004). On the other hand, democratization is a process which, according to Huntington, refers to a transition from non-democratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified time. Scholars argue that democratization is a long process with ups and downs which under certain conditions can consolidate or backslide (Huntington, 1991; Diamond, 2008).

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The backsliding of democracy where democracies either turn into authoritarianism or dictatorships was called by Huntington (1991) democratic reversal while Larry Diamond called it democratic recession (2008). According to Huntington (1991) consolidation of democracy happens when a ruling political party loses election, hands over power peacefully to the winner. Huntington (1991) indicated that multiple peaceful transitions of power are a very important indicator for the consolidation of democracy. From the above definitions, it can be understood that the focus in conceptualizing democracy and democratization often focuses on the election. This takes us to the debate of minimalist and substantive democracy.

The debate between minimalist and substantive democracy remained significant in conceptualizing democracy. The minimalist point of understanding democracy, often considered as procedural democracy, takes into account elections. While from a substantive point of view democracy is beyond election. Without an election, of course, popular contestation and engagement are inconceivable, which are according to Dahl the foundations of substantive democracy (Burnell, 2011). Consolidating democracy needs broad political space that enables actors and citizens to freely participate and drive change. It is only through elections that power can be transferred from one to another. Particularly, when elections result in a peaceful transfer of power not only between individuals but also among political parties, according to Huntington (1991), it is considered as a litmus test for the progress of democratization.

However, unlike the argument of minimalist electoral democracy, in this study, it is argued that democracy is beyond election. One of the most important elements this study aspires to employ to identify whether democratization in the country is in progress or in the challenge of reversal will be examining whether political space is widening or shrinking. The state of political space in a country is often considered an important indicator to identify and assess democratization and democratic reversal. Political space refers to the avenue to express voices and influence political outcome (NDI, 2016).

Nationalism is another important concept that needs defining and operationalizing in the context of this study. The notion of nationalism is not a monolithic concept, having complex and diverse dimensions and manifestations (Pamir, 1997). According to Lecours and Moreno (2010), the distinction between civic-nationalism and ethno-nationalism is very important to understand its impact on democracy and overall development. Civic nationalism is an all- embracing, unifying force, which brings people with a diverse background within the state

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(Pamir, 1997). On the other hand, ethno-nationalism is considered parochial by its nature. Ethno-nationalism associates itself with the emergence of political movements mobilizing a particular ethnicity against other groups or the central government. “Ethnicity is a social- psychological process which gives an individual a sense of belonging and identity” (Isajiw, 1992:8). Ethno-nationalism bases on this exclusive sense of belongingness within a given ethnic group. Of course, ethno-nationalism plays not only a disruptive role but also can play a positive role in contributing to the emancipation and liberation of oppressed groups (Jalata, 2001).

3.3. Theories of Ethnicity

Regarding theories that can guide the study, this research bases on theories of ethnicity that can serve as a theoretical ground to study ethno-nationalism, its nexus, and compatibility with democracy in Ethiopia. Scholars have identified three major theories of ethnicity: namely, primordialism, constructivism and instrumentalist theories of ethnicity.

Primordialism is the oldest theoretical approach to studying ethnicity in the literature of anthropology and political science (Isajiw, 1992). According to primordialism, ethnicity is considered as an objective thing, ascribed at birth, derived from kin and clan structure, something fixed and permanent with inherent features of language, territory, common membership and even similar psychological makeup (Isajiw, 1992; Tishkov, 1997). According to primordialism, “each of us belongs to one and only one ethnic group, that group membership remains fixed over a lifetime, and it is passed down intact across generations” (Chandra, 2012:1). This understanding of ethnic identity considers ethnicity “as a product of early human evolution” (Tishkov, 1997:10). This conceptualization of ethnicity and its role in ethnic conflicts has received criticism from constructivists and instrumentalist counterparts. Weir (2012) noted that the theory of primordialism failed to give an adequate explanation to elite manipulation in ethnic conflicts.

Constructivism as a theory of ethnicity argues that ethnic identity is socially constructed through both structure and agency (Nagel, 1994). Against the assertion of primordialism, constructivists argue that ethnicity is not fixed and permanent rather it is dynamic and a result of group relations (Isajiw, 1992). Nagel (1994) further argued that ethnicity is a product of internal and external actions undertaken either by the ethnic groups themselves or external social, economic and political processes and actors that shape and reshape ethnic categories, language and culture. In simple and clear words Isajiw (1992:4) from a constructivist point of

16 view defined ethnicity as “something that is negotiated and constructed in everyday living. It is a process which continues to unfold”.

The third variant among theories of ethnicity is instrumentalism. The central idea of the theory of instrumentalism is the manipulation of ethnicity by political leaders for political gain (Weir, 2012). Instrumentalists consider ethnicity as an instrument for elite manipulation. As cited in Isajiw (1992:3) ethnicity is "a group option in which resources are mobilized to pressure the political system to allocate public goods for the benefit of the members of a self- differentiating collectivity" (Ross, 1982). In a highly divided society, elites or political leaders use ethnicity to easily mobilize support to rebel against government or inter-ethnic conflict for their political gain (Weir, 2012). Mass media, social media, and politicized and institutionalized ethnicity in the presence of lumpen youth create enabling environment to inculcate exclusionary ideas among the people and use ethnicity for the political end of elites. Ethnic conflicts occurring due to greed and grievance are often manipulated by elites (Weir, 2012).

I argue that constructivist and instrumentalist conceptualizations of ethnicity are not mutually exclusive. That means ethnicity can be socially constructed at the same time being used by elites. Among all the theories of ethnicity, the situation in Ethiopia can be best explained by the instrumentalist explanation of ethnicity. The elites in Ethiopia had played a role by articulating grievances and ethnic questions and mobilizing the mass (Merrera, 2004; Jalata, 2001). In this research project, the theory of instrumentalism is used as a theoretical framework to analyze the recent upsurge of ethno-nationalism and its impact on democracy in Ethiopia. Conflicts seemingly inspired by ethnic hatred are often driven by the aims of political leaders (Weir, 2012) where the assertions of instrumentalists hold water. I argue that the role of elites using ethnicity as an instrument for ethnic mobilization to achieve their political and socio-economic aspirations is an important feature in Ethiopia. Ethiopia is a country where powerful and divisive historical narrations regarding the role of ethnic groups, marginalization and inclusion in the long state and nation-building process in the country are causing grievances that are easily channelled by elites to violent conflict. But it should be noted that using instrumentalist theory for analysis in this study does not deny the very idea of the socially constructed nature of ethnicity.

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CHAPTER FOUR

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY

For any academic research, methodological clarity is very important. This section attempts to shed light on the strategies and the way the research was carried out. The important methodological toolkits and ethical issues employed during the data collection, analysis and reporting are briefly discussed as follows.

4.1. Research Methodology

As defined by Catherine Dawson (2002:14), research methodology is ‘a philosophy or general principle which guides the whole research’. In choosing the best methodology that guides the whole research process, the option is usually between qualitative, quantitative, and mixed approaches.

This research is a qualitative research. It studied how the upsurge of ethnonationalism has been impacting democratization in Ethiopia and pinpoints future scenarios. Evidence from different literature reveals that democracy is a global phenomenon conditioned by contexts at different levels, extending from the local to the international actors. Hence, this research attempts to conduct a multi-level analysis taking into account, the local, national, and international level factors and their repercussion on the upsurge of ethnonationalism and Ethiopia’s fragile democracy. In doing so, this research neither aims to generate a statistical report nor conduct a survey. Instead of focusing on quantifiable figures and statistical reports, this research, bases on qualitative indicators and themes during data collection as well as analysis. The researcher believes this can be best studied through a qualitative approach than quantitative or mixed approaches.

4.1.1. Methods of Data Collection

Research methods can be understood as all those techniques and tools that are used for collecting and analyzing data (Dawson, 2012). The most important research methods employed to conduct this research were literature review and interviews. The research was dominantly a desk research where data from primary and secondary sources was collected through literature review. Data from secondary sources was also used to develop the theoretical and conceptual foundation of the study. For this purpose, data was collected from available and relevant books, journal articles, legal and policy documents, governmental and international organization reports, newspapers and media reports through literature review.

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Apart from that, data was also collected from primary sources through interviews. Qualitative research often attempts to get an in-depth opinion from participants through interviews (Dawson, 2012). The concept of ‘interview’ ‘covers a lot of grounds, from totally unstructured interactions, through semi-structured situations, to highly formal interactions with respondents’ (Bernard, 2006:210). In this research, semi-structured interviews were employed where both closed and open-ended questions were forwarded to participants to collect the needed data and understand the situation. The tool this research used to get an in- depth opinion from participants was a key informant interview. “Qualitative in-depth interviews are usually conducted with key informants, that is, interview with people who know what is going on in the respective field” (David and Mumtaz, 2013: 133). Qualitative research usually involves a small number of people to get detail and in-depth information (David and Mumtaz, 2013). For this study, 12 key informants involving researchers, journalists and analysts were carefully selected using a purposive sampling technique. The participants' expertise in Ethiopian politics and history was used as important inclusion criteria. In selecting participants, the researcher also attempted to take into account participants' ethnic backgrounds so that people from different perspectives can be contacted. The research was conducted based on informed consent where participation in the research was voluntary. Out of 12 participants contacted for this research, 9 key informants participated in this research. The interviews took from 30 minutes to an hour.

This research project was carried out during the COVID-19 pandemic which impacted the research methods employed to conduct the study. The pandemic impacted our daily life where meeting people physically was difficult and unadvisable though not impossible. As a result, the researcher was not able to conduct a face-to-face interview. However, the interviews were conducted per the plan using a computer-mediated digital platform.

Generally speaking, the researcher believes that combining both desk research and key informant interviews helped to triangulate the findings increase the credibility and validity of the finding.

4.1.2. Method of Data Analysis

In a research process with academic significance, the method of data analysis is as important as methods of data collection. In qualitative research more often than not data analysis takes parallelly with data collection (Dawson, 2012). In the same vein, in this research, the analysis took place along the data collection process.

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The ethics of scientific inquiry were respected throughout the report. Due to the sensitivity of the issue under study, the interview participants were anonymized. As a method of data analysis, this research employed thematic analysis. Themes were identified, categorized, and analyzed in line with the research objectives and questions. Finally, data collected from both primary and secondary sources through desk research and key informant interviews was corroborated as a single coherently synthesized set of data.

4.2. Research Design and Line of Reasoning

According to Bryman (2012: 45), “research design represents the structure that guides the execution of a research method and the analysis of the subsequent data”. This research was explanatory research that employs a case study design. Case study design emphasizes on an intensive investigation of a particular case (Ibid). The scope of the case, in this research, was delimited in terms of time and space. The year 1991 was a turning point not only in the history of the world but also in the political trajectory of Ethiopia. The year marked the ousting of the dictatorial ‘socialist’ regime in the country. Which in turn marked the adoption of democratic institutions, in a modern sense, for the first time in the over three-thousand- year history of the country.

The focus of this research was not assessing the trends of democratization since 1991. Its scope was limited to the contemporary political transition in Ethiopia. It aims to make an in- depth study of the upsurge of ethnonationalism in post-2015-Ethiopia. The wide array of political protests and mobilizations along ethnic lines exploded in Ethiopia in 2015 (IPSS, 2020). This finally resulted in the resignation of Hailemariam Dessalegn and the ascendancy of Abiy Ahmed Ali (The Guardian, February 15, 2018) as Prime Minister of the multi- national and uncolonized African country. In other words, the case in this study focused on the contemporary political dynamics in Ethiopia. The research approached the study based on prior propositions or theories formulated by different scholars in the sub-field. This indicates that, in its inquiry, this research employed an abductive line of reasoning.

4.3. Ethical Considerations

The researcher believes that this study was conducted with due attention to ethical standards of scientific inquiry. In any research, ethical issues are very important as they directly relate to the integrity of the research and the disciplines involved (Bryman, 2012). Ethical considerations are very important, in this research, mainly due to two important reasons.

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First, due to the sensitivity of the topic under study, ethical issues received due emphasis throughout data collection, analysis, and reporting. All participants take part in this research based on informed consent. The researcher made the objective and purpose of the research clear to participants before the commencement of each interview. The right of the participants to decline and not take part in the research was respected. The 3 contacted potential key informants declined to participate in the project which was dully respected.

Secondly, as dominantly desk research, another important ethical consideration, this research takes into account is ensuring objectivity. Ethiopian politics is characterized by polarized narration which puts the credibility of many sources into question. In this regard, to ensure objectivity, the research used different sources and incorporated views from different perspectives. Triangulating findings through multiple methods of data collection was also an important technique employed in this research. In addition to this, the familiarity of the researcher with the context in Ethiopia helped to identify the sources that can be trusted and the sources that are politically loaded and biased.

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CHAPTER FIVE

FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS

5.1. Introduction

Transitioning towards democracy was often considered as a panacea for many of the problems in developing countries. However, in most countries with divided societies, deepening democracy remains a difficult task. Unlike many African countries that were created through European conquest and colonialism (Markakis, 2011, Abebaw, 2013), Ethiopia’s state formation was a result of internal processes and territorial expansion (Thomas, 2016). Ethiopia is an ancient country with a history of over three millennia (Thomas, 2016). Apart from that, it is the only African country that successfully defeated the colonial powers and maintained its sovereignty (Bahru, 2002; Abebaw, 2013). With over 112 million population (World Bank, 2019), Ethiopia is the second-most populous African state. The multiethnic nature of the country is well documented with more than 80 languages spoken across the country (Abebaw, 2013).

Evidence shows that seeds of democracy have been in the values and institutions of many cultures in the country. However, these seeds of democracy are struggling either to germinate or deepen their roots in the soils of contemporary Ethiopia. As a result, despite the long history of statehood and independence, Ethiopia remained under monarchic rule for a long time until 1974 (Bahru, 2002; Gebru, 2009; Markakis, 2011). After the 1974 Ethiopian revolution, the country’s political landscape barely shifted from monarchy to dictatorship.

Despite its three thousand years long history of statehood (Thomas, 2016), democratization, in Ethiopia, in a modern sense is a recent phenomenon that embarked only in 1991. The overthrow of the socialist Dergue regime in 1991 heralded the introduction of a multi-party system and periodic elections to Ethiopia’s politics. With the adoption of federalism in 1991, many assumed Ethiopia had found a solution for the erstwhile marginalization and exclusion (Monsell, 2017). Nonetheless, the country remained under the dominant party or de facto one-party rule (Nish, 2013), for the last three decades. However, recently, there is a new wave of ethno-nationalism which swept the country’s politics (Semir, 2019), brought a regime change. The ascendance of Abiy Ahmed Ali, world Nobel Peace prize winner for 2019, to power accompanied by his rhetoric for massive democratization has created a glimmering sense of hope among the people of the country (Salih, 2018). Still, with the unfolding conflict in different parts of the country, the new wave of ethno-nationalism is

22 challenging the territorial integrity and the very existence of the Ethiopian state. This chapter tries to shed light on how the new wave of ethno-nationalism is impacting the country’s democratization endeavors and overall development. Enunciating the underlying factors, this chapter also pinpoints the ways the country can get out of the unfolding crisis.

5.2. Competing Nationalisms in Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, there are multiple nationalisms. Their contradictions and compatibility with each other are nuanced which needs a thorough analysis (Pamir, 1997). There is nationalism associated with the state- which some call civic nationalism (Lecours and Moreno,2010). There is also nationalism associated with religion or ethnic groups (Zahorik, 2014). These nationalisms are sometimes complementing but often competing with each other. Basing on Marxist historical materialism, scholars argued that these competing nationalisms have played a remarkable role in the making and re-making of the Ethiopian state. Putting in other words, they argue Ethiopia is a synthesis of ethno-nationalist thesis and its pan-Ethiopianist anti-thesis (Merrera, 2003).

5.2.1. Pan-Ethiopianism

Pan-Ethiopianism is a civic nationalism that attempts to harness national cohesion against internal and external threats (Belachew, 2009). It is associated with the promotion of common culture and language (Semir, 2019). Pan-Ethiopianists firmly argue against the institutionalization of ethnicity which, in their view, diminishes the pre-existing shared culture and values (Girma, 2019). According to pan-Ethiopianists, Ethiopia comes first, all other issues like ethnic identity, religion and language are secondary (Teshome, 2017). They even consider the adoption of ethnic federalism in 1991 as a TPLF’s strategy of divide and rule (KI 7, 3 May 2021). On the other hand, ethno-nationalists suspect pan Ethiopianism recalling evil things like ethnic marginalization, suppression, cultural domination and assimilation which were historical done against their group rights in the name of national unity (KI 3, 27 April 2021)

Pan-Ethiopianists are also appreciative of the long history of the country and its imperial rulers. They consider Emperor Menelik II as the most important Ethiopian state builder and national hero (KI 7, 3 May 2021). In contrary to this, ethno-nationalists consider Menelike II as a brutal and genocidal ruler (Ibid). However, Pan-Ethiopianists insist Ethiopia could only prosper in the sense of civic nationalism, unity and solidarity and consider ethno-nationalism as parochial and chauvinistic which puts the prospect of the country in a jeopardy (Mistir,

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2021). They strongly argue that Ethiopia’s future should base on pan-ethiopianist ideals instead of ethno-national chauvinism (Mistir, 2021). External threats and wars at different times helped Ethiopians to further enhance their sense of belongingness (Belachew, 2009). Despite the strength of Ethipianism, the ascendance of ethno-nationalism as the dominant organizing principle has been threatening the very survival and territorial integrity of the uncolonized African state.

5.2.2. Ethno-nationalism in context

Exploring the genesis and development of ethno-nationalism in the country will be important to understand why and how ethno-nationalism emerged as an organizing political principle and came to the forefront of Ethiopian politics. Its genesis dates to the 1960s Ethiopian student movement and their struggle for the “National Question” (Darch, 2002; Thomas, 2016).

Putting the articulation of the national question by Ethiopian student movement and intelligentsia into perspective needs exploring the erstwhile nation-building strategies. To handle diversity and maintain the territorial integrity of the country, Ethiopian regimes used different approaches. The pre-1991 Ethiopian regimes considered ethnic diversity as a threat to national unity and territorial integrity (Abebaw, 2013; Asefa, 2011, Markakis, 2011). Consequently, they used centralization, assimilation and creating one national identity for a multi-national Ethiopian state (Markakis, 2011). This nation-building strategy had suppressed the languages, cultures and ways of lives of many ethnic groups. This created inequality, marginalization and exclusion proving the pursued nation-building strategy defective and unsuitable (Assefa, 2011; Markakis, 2011).

The exclusion and assimilationist nation-building strategy has led to the emergence of ethno- nationalist sentiments (Jalata, 2001; Semir, 2019), which brought national question as a politico-ideological agenda to describe deep-rooted inequality among ethnic groups in the country (Thomas, 2016). At that time, the Ethiopian students, as the only educated sector of the society, synthesized national questions and presented to the regime (Darch, 2002; Merera, 2004; Thomas, 2016). With a critique mounted by students, the regime faced fierce opposition from different groups (taxi drivers, peasants, the army) (Merera, 2004). The erstwhile marginalization, ethnic inequality and the failed nation-building strategies employed by successive regimes led to the emergence of ethno-nationalist armed political groups like Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) in 1960 and the Tigrian Liberation Front (TPLF),

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Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and other groups in the late 1970s (Gebru, 2009) who fought sometimes for secession and other times for broader political reforms and equality.

Finally, the imperial regime in Ethiopia was overthrown in 1974 through a popular revolution (Bahru, 2002; Gebru, 2009). After the revolution, the military regime, usually termed as Dergue, assumed political power in 1974 and pursued its own strategy of handling diversity (Markakis, 2011) under the framework of its ‘socialist’ ideology. The modus operandi of political mobilization at that time was a class-based struggle that kept the national question unanswered.

In 1991 communism collapsed at the world political scene leading to the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the Berlin wall. In Ethiopia, the year has also marked a new era in the trajectory of Ethiopian politics with the downfall of the leftist Dergue regime and the concomitant ascendancy of EPRDF to power. This put Ethiopia in the hands of EPRDF ethno-nationalists led by the Tigrian Liberation Front (TPLF) (Gebru, 2009; Thomas, 2016). The demise of socialist ideology as the overarching framework of Ethiopian politics diminished the role of class-based politics in Ethiopia. The juxtapose of the end of the class- based struggle, erstwhile ethnic inequality and marginalization and ascendance of ethno- nationalists to power has, subsequently, brought ethnicity to the forefront of Ethiopian politics. The architects of the transitional charter as well as the 1995 FDRE constitution, OLF and TPLF led EPRDF were all ethno-nationalists (KI 7, 3 May 2021).

As it is indicated in the 1995 FDRE constitution unlike its predecessors, the post-1991 EPRDF led regime, has expressly recognized the ethnic diversity of the country. The regime accepted the notion of ethnic diversity and aspired to build the nation by using ethnicity as a starting point (Dessalegn, 2012). This is a paradigm shift and point of departure from the previous regimes. Subsequently, the state structure was crafted based on ethnicity as an overarching state framework for representation and political mobilization (Thomsa, 2016; IPSS, 2020). This was institutionalized through the 1995 FDRE constitution which granted ethnic groups the right of self-determination that extends up to secession as solutions to the erstwhile unequal relationships among ethno-national groups in the country (Assefa, 2011).

In general, historically, the evils of marginalization, exclusion and suppression carried out during the assimilationist project in the name of pan-ethiopianism and national unity laid the ground for the emergence of ethno-nationalism as an organizing political principle in

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Ethiopia (Jalata, 2001; Markakis, 2011). In a similar vein, the continued suppression, the ever-increasing ethnic marginalization, identity-based killings and economic inequalities have caused the upsurge of a new wave of ethnic nationalism in post-2015 Ethiopia.

5.3. The Upsurge of Ethno-nationalism and its Impact on Democracy in Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s politics has taken ethnic shape since the adoption of ethnic federalism in 1991 (Vaughan, 2003; Abebaw, 2013). Since then, the country has experienced ethnic-based political mobilization as a basis for opposition to the regime (Vaughan, 2003). This has reached its climax after 2015 (Semir, 2019). Politics as who gets what, when and how is associated with resource allocation (Lasswell, 1936). In line with the assertion of theory instrumentalism, in ethnically divided societies, politicians play the ethnic card to mobilize voters: because people want resources from the state and believe that having people from their ethnic group in political power will facilitate their access to these resources (Posner, 2005). This explains how elites are manipulating politics in Ethiopia for their political gains. In post-1991 Ethiopia, replacing ideology and programmatic party policy, ethnicity has become the overarching framework for regional state formation, party formation and political mobilization where support and voting often follow ethnic lines (Abebaw, 2013; Thomas, 2016). That means, according to the theory of instrumentalism, ethnicity became an instrument in the country articulated and used by elites to gain political goals (Merera, 2004) and ultimately to distribute economic benefits in a patron-client relationship.

This has negatively impacted democratization in two ways. First, it undermines party policies and programs. In the presence of a feeling of marginalization and inequality, for political parties organized along ethnic lines, it is easy to contest elections even without a clear political program. In such contexts, loyalty to ethnically organized political parties stick to identity irrespective of policies and programs (Collier, 1998), this negatively impacts electoral sanction and democracy. Because people tend to emphasize parochially defined interests instead of the quality and merit of the policies and programs of political parties.

Second, on different occasions under certain conditions, ethnic cleavages are prone to violent ethnic conflicts (Weber, 2009; Annett, 2001). That is why the political liberalization and subsequent upsurge of ethno-nationalism were, unfortunately, accompanied by inter-ethnic violence in Ethiopia. According to Amnesty International report (2020), after 2018, Ethiopia registered ethnic-based violence in Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz, Oromia, Harar and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and people’s regions. But 2020 is the deadliest year with a

26 war in northern Ethiopia erupted between TPLF and ENDF on 4 November 2020 (Abink, 2021).

5.3.1. Democracy in Peril: Protests, Violent Conflicts and the War in Tigray

With mounting ethno-nationalism, waves of violent protests across different parts of the country against the government started in November 2015 (Amnesty international report (2016). The violent protests initially started as a reaction to the introduction of a new government plan to expand and integrate Addis Ababa city into parts of the surrounding Oromia region (IPSS, 2020). After a new wave of protest led by ethno-nationalist social media activists, the government was forced to cancel the master plan in January 2016 (Amnesty 2016). Despite the cancelling of the master plan, the protests easily expanded and engulfed other parts of the country, demanding broad socio-economic and political reforms which mobilized the youth (IPSS, 2020). This shows the violent protest is not caused only by the Addis Ababa city's new master plan. In addition to the upsurge of ethno-nationalism and subsequent power struggle, economic inequality, soaring unemployment and rampant corruption remained the underlying factors that can best explain the situation (see section 5.4.)

At the time of this study, Ethiopia is indulged in a catastrophic cycle of violence which can even get worse. Since 2017, conflicts have occurred along Somali and Oromia regions displacing over a million people (Amnesty, 2020). In the same year, there was also violent conflict in the Amhara region with the identity question of the Qimant people mounting in a quest for autonomy. The cumulative effect of all these inter-ethnic conflicts and waves of violent protests forced Hailemariam Dessalegn to resign from his power in 2018 (Addis Standard, 15 February 2018).

In 2020 and 2021 the violent inter-ethnic conflict in the country is not showing de-escalation. Evidence reveals that there were exacerbated ethnic conflicts in Benishangul Gumuz, Oromia, Amhara, Somali, Afar and Tigray regions. The Tigray conflict developed into a war between the national government forces and the Tigray regional state forces (Abink, 2021). According to Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) report (2020), the war in Tigray has resulted in atrocities that amount to war crime (EHRC, 2020). Amnesty International (2020) reported that in Wellega zone of Oromia ethnic-based killing is a common phenomenon albeit the zone is under military command post. Benishangul Gumuz region in western Ethiopia is also experiencing its worst ethnic-based massacre (Tsegaye, 2020) and

27 people are and will continue starving as the security problems stopped them from accessing their land for next year farming (KI 1, April 23, 2021). Though the ENDF controlled the Mekele City and TPLF plight back to the bush (Abink, 2021), the conflict has been continuing at the time of this research.

In response to the exacerbation of inter-ethnic violence and the deterioration of human rights and security issues (Human Rights Watch, 2021), the national government responded by establishing an emergency command post (Amnesty International, 2020). The command post was empowered with imposing curfews, banning meetings and demonstrations, blocking internets, mobile networks and even restricting movements as it deemed necessary for their operation (Ibid). Extrajudicial killings and mass arrests have become common (Amnesty International, 2020). All the ethnic-based violence occurring in different parts of the country caused the explosion of public grievance and discontent (KI 8, 8 May 2021). At the time of this study, from April 15-April 24 2021, particularly, in many towns of the Amhara region, thousands of people were on the streets protesting against the deteriorating situation and the failure of the state to protect its citizens from ethnic-based violence.

Figure 1: Demonstration in opposition of ethnic-based killings in the country, Debre Markos, Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation, 20 April 2021

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5.3.2. Democracy in Peril: The Postponement of Election and its Repercussion

Ethiopia has conducted 5 national elections since 1995. After 1991, in principle the country had adopted a multi-party system and conducted periodic elections, however, in reality, Ethiopia remained under dominant party rule for the last three decades (Lyons, 2010). Except for the 2005 election, all the previous elections were characterized by non-competitiveness impacted by either the repression of the incumbent regime or problems within the oppositions themselves (Asnake, 2011; Lyons, 2010). The ascendance of Abiy Ahmed Ali, the world Nobel Peace prize winner for 2019, to power accompanied by his rhetoric for massive democratization and liberalization has created a glimmering sense of hope among the people of the country and beyond (Salih, 2018). Of course, the Abiy administration, during the honeymoon has introduced some profound changes.

The new regime liberalized politics and to some extent the economy. To be specific, the regime released political prisoners, blacklisted media outlets and political parties previously in exile were allowed to function in the country, repealed repressive laws previously used to target dissenting opinions, (Semir, 2019; Amnesty international 2020). This had brought a sense of hope across the country helping the regime to get local and international support in 2018 and 2019. Despite these positive developments, Ethiopia experienced a surge in ethno- nationalism and a new wave of ethnic-based conflict almost throughout the country (Semir, 2019; Amnesty International, 2020). The regime once hailed for massive liberalization and democratization, reacted and swiftly tended to authoritarianism. The political space started to narrow down. The sixth national election which was initially scheduled to be conducted in August 2020 was postponed twice: first in the name of COVID-19 pandemic (Human Rights Watch, 2021) and second for ‘logistic reasons’.

Worsening the polarized discourse, the postponement of the national election received different reactions from spectators and political parties. Some opposition parties accepted the postponement and requested for the establishment of a transitional government that can run the country until the next election while others considered the postponement as an apparent move of extending tenure for the ruling party (Amnesty international, 2020). The postponement of the election was also blamed by some spectators as a strategy of buying time to further consolidate the newly re-organized ruling party (France 24, 3 May 2021). The ideological and political difference further polarized when the TPLF led regional

29 administration in Tigray rejected the decision of postponing the election and conducted its regional election in September 2020 (Human Rights Watch, 2021).

Apart from this, the government’s reaction to the oppositions and protests has put the legitimacy of the incumbent regime into question (KI 3, 27 April 2021). As ethnic-based conflicts and protests against the government mounted, the regime further narrowed down the political space by even blocking phone and internet communication and arresting opposition leaders (Human Rights Watch, 2021). The reported imprisonment of opposition political leaders, the closing of their offices and the withdrawal of dominant parties from the upcoming election (DW, 19 February 2021), overshadowed Ethiopia’s democratization which received praises all over the world in the aftermath of April 2018. The withdrawal of major political parties from the upcoming election by recalling the absence of enabling environment is an indication of the lack of trust in the credibility, freedom, and fairness of the upcoming election. Many commentators argued that conducting an election that cannot earn the trust of the Ethiopian public and political actors may result in boiling the ethnic and political tensions into greater violence (KI 3, 27 April 2021; KI 5, 30 April 2021). There is an evolving argument that the narrowing down of political space, particularly, the categorization of the TPLF and OLA as terrorist organizations by the national parliament on 6 April 2021 reveals the presence of more continuities of authoritarianism than changes (KI 7, 3 May 2021).

5.4. The Underlying Factors for the Upsurge of Ethno-nationalism and Violent Conflicts in Ethiopia

The presence of ethnic diversity is not intrinsically a problem. This assertion indicates the presence of underlying factors that are creating enabling environment for the upsurge of ethno-nationalism which has been causing dreadful consequences in a multi-national Ethiopian state. This research identified that the upsurge of ethno-nationalism and subsequent violent conflicts in the country is a microcosm of age-old historical narratives, politicization and institutionalization of ethnicity, socio-economic setbacks, the fragility of state institutions and external power involvement. By answering the first research question, these points are discussed one after the other in this section.

5.4.1. Historical Narratives Inculcating Animosity, Mistrust and Ethnic Rivalry

Evidence shows that Ethiopia has age-old historical narratives inculcating animosity and ethnic rivalry. The way historical narratives are set up is characterized by contestation. There

30 is a lack of agreement, among different actors and the elite, on the past, present and future of the Ethiopian state (KI 7, 3 May 2021). Zahorik (2014) noted that historical narratives were politicized and ethnicized in Ethiopia which has a long history of nationalism and political tension where ethnicity played a remarkable role of mobilizing factor. The contested nature of the history of the country became a subject for contradictory interpretation which some argued moving the country forward needs a new consensus.

The legacy of the power struggle among influential groups (KI 5, 30 April 2021) and the contrasting narrations of Ethiopia have filled the recent debates among academics, elites, and political activists (Zahorik, 2014). This discourse was associated with the Ethiopian state formation which was culminated at the end of the 19th century through conquest and territorial expansion (Markakis, 2011). The contradiction is on what Ethiopia historically was, what it is and what Ethiopia should be in the future (KI 7, 3 May 2021). Is Ethiopia the oldest state in Africa? Who are the three-thousand-year-old Ethiopians? Is Ethiopia a colonial empire by itself? The answers to these questions are contradictory depending upon different views.

There are three contrasting views on Ethiopian history and politics that are directly associated with the country’s competing nationalisms. These are the Pan-Ethiopianism, national oppression thesis and colonial thesis. Ethno-nationalism in Ethiopia is not a unified and coherent theme, as a result, the last two views fall under this category. Ethno-nationalism in Ethiopia extends from those who focus on the narration of the presence of national oppression among ethnic groups to the extremists who consider Ethiopia as a colonial empire (KI 7, 3 May 2021). Based on parochially defined ethnic interests, the extreme ethno- nationalists, who adhere to the colonial thesis, depict Ethiopia as a colonial power which forcefully conquered and subjugated many territories and ethnic groups during the territorial expansions of the late 19th century (Jalata, 2001; Zahorik, 2014). They portray Ethiopia as a colonial construct assimilating and subjugating several autonomous kingdoms and sultanates in the East, West and South during the race for colonizing Africa (Jalata, 2001; KI 7, 3 May 2021).

These contrasting historical narratives led to the establishment of three types of political parties. Pan-Ethiopianist political parties were organized ventilating often issue-based politics. Second, there were ethno-nationalist political parties who converge on the issue of national oppression and focused on regional autonomy, federalism and ethnic institutions as a

31 solution for erstwhile problems in ethnic relations. Thirdly, based on the assumption of colonial perspective, several political organizations were established seeking the liberation of their respective ethnic groups. In this regard, the establishment of centrifugal liberation fronts, inter alia, Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF), the OLF, ONLF and others resorted to using force as a means of achieving their political goals (Young, 2007). Among these liberation fronts, the ELF succeeded in its political aim by declaring the establishment of an independent Eritrean state in the early 1990s.

In general, as Zahorik (2014) convincingly noted, the legacy of the power struggle and the popularity of historical narratives based on each group’s collective memory, unfortunately, constructed along ethno-nationalist lines has a remarkable impact on Ethiopia’s contemporary politics.

5.4.2. Politicization and Institutionalization of Ethnicity

As indicated in earlier sections in this study, ethnic diversity by itself is not a problem. There are countries with highly divided societies living in peace and thriving democracies (Beissinger, 2002; Weber, 2009). On the other hand, there are also mono-ethnic countries dwelling in a quagmire of conflict trap and struggling to install a democratic system. This indicates multi-national nature of the state or diversity perse had never been the main factor for a political problem (Weber, 2009). Despite this fact, in the presence of polarization and a history of ethnic inequality, the politicization of ethnicity and its utilization for political mobilization will cause conflict and democratic breakdown (Huntington, 1991; Weber, 2009). Politicization and institutionalization of ethnicity have been impacting peace and development in Ethiopia. Evidence reveals that the politicization of ethnicity, in Ethiopia, dates to the 1960s, where the ‘national question’ was articulated by the intelligentsia which ultimately led to the establishment of the first armed secessionist liberation front, ELF, in 1960 (Marcus, 1994). Between 1974 and 1991 more than dozens of ethno-nationalist armed groups fought against the Dergue regime (Semir, 2019; Gebru, 2009).

However, in the aftermath of 1991, Ethiopia has been experiencing not only politicization but also institutionalization of ethnicity. In 1991, for the first time, Ethiopia was ruled by a coalition of ethnically organized political parties led by TPLF (Semir, 2019). Immediately after the overthrow of the socialist military regime in 1991, the EPDRF led transitional government restructured the country’s legal, economic, political and administrative orders based upon ethnicity (Vaughan, 2003). Subsequently, all regional states were established

32 along ethnic lines. The worrying thing is, according to the 1995 FDRE constitution article 39, the right of ‘nations, nationalities and people’ in Ethiopia extends from self-determination up to secession. The institutionalization of ethnicity was further enhanced and polarized with the establishment of paramilitaries (KI 8, 8 May 2021). From the very beginning, having in mind, the disintegration and fragmentation of Yugoslavia, Ethiopia’s experiment of institutionalization of ethnic politics was considered by many as a risky move (Vaughan, 2003).

With a new wave of ethno-nationalism sweeping the country after 2015 (Semir, 2019), the relationship between ethnic regional states has been polarized. As political tension mounted in Ethiopia, the press releases and speeches delivered by regional states and their leaders remained provocative. The amnesty international report (2020) indicated that the late Birgader General Asaminew Tsige who was the head of the Amhara regional peace and security bureau forwarded provocative speech indicating “the Amhara ethnic group in the country is facing the biggest challenge in the last 500 years” which was widely propagated by their ethnic media outlets. On the other hand, Shimelis Abdisa, the president of the Oromia regional state, in his speech on the 2019 ireecha2 celebration recalled years of oppression and injustice and declared the victory of the Oromo against what he termed the neftegna3 (Ibid). Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnon, instead of disarming the armed groups, in his speech remarked that the Amharas (to which he belongs) in Benishangul Gumuz should be armed so that they can defend themselves (Addis Standard, 14 October 2020). These controversial and provocative statements incited anger among many Ethiopians (Ezega News, October 9, 2019).

The institutionalization of ethnicity was not limited to the establishment of ethnic regional states. It was deep entrenched with the establishment of ethnic political parties and media outlets. According to the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia, there are 49 legally registered political parties running for the upcoming, June 21, 2021, national election (Ethiopian News Agency, 7 May 2021). The high number of political parties is not due to the diversity of policies and programs they have rather it is due to the diversity of ethnic groups they claim to represent. Ethnic groups have their media outlets and respective political parties which often complement each other. In Ethiopia, there is freedom of media in the constitution and other

2 Ireecha is a thanksgiving festival annually celebrated by the Oromo people in Ethiopia. 3 The word neftegna was derogatory which often used to indicate the oppressive, armed group associated with ruling class and the Amhara ethnic group that maintained the imperial state in Ethiopia (Markakis, 2011). 33 legal documents, in reality, however, state-owned media outlets are affiliated with the ruling party (Salih, 2018). The worrying thing is politically affiliated media outlets were most often than not used for ventilating polarized views with very low public trust.

In general, the politicization and institutionalization of ethnicity in Ethiopia has polarized ethnic relations. With its dreadful consequences, this has been hampering the incumbent regime’s attempt of maintaining law and order and deepening democracy in the country. There is a lack of consensus and polarization among the elites on fundamental issues like the flag, federal structure and ownership of the capital city (IPSS, 2020). In line with the assertion of the instrumentalist theory of ethnicity, elites in Ethiopia are playing a remarkable role in synthesizing, articulating and framing these agendas to easily mobilize the youth on ethnic grounds.

Social media is also polarized and at times toxic, draining trust and further fracturing ethnic relations in Ethiopia (Adamu, 2020). A participant in an interview argued that it is unfortunate that such a wonderful technology of social media that could have been used for good causes is polarized, toxic and often used, in Ethiopia, to inculcate hate and deepen animosity in the country (KI 6, 30 April 2021)). introduction of new legislation, proclamation no 1185 in 2020, on hate speech indicates the attention the issue received from the Ethiopian government. From the very preamble, the proclamation indicated that the threat hate speech poses to social harmony, political stability, national unity and human dignity is serious which needs to be prevented by law (FDRE proclamation 1185/2020).

But this has received critics as the broadly defined “hate speech and false information” may be misused by the government to suppress freedom of speech. Rights groups have shown their concern about the new proclamation. For instance, Center for Advancement of Rights and Democracy (CADRD) indicated that this new proclamation will fall in the same trap with the previous anti-terrorism law which was misused to supress opposition and dissent (VOA, 20 December 2019).

5.4.3. Economic Setbacks- Unemployment and Inflation

Regarding economic setbacks, there is an old dictum saying, “either government creates job opportunities for the youth, or the youth create a job for the government”. This assertion holds water in explaining the current situation in Ethiopia. Because the government has failed to create an adequate job for its youth population, but the lumpen youth has created sufficient

34 job for the government through engaging in violent conflicts. Evidence indicates that economic setbacks, mainly soaring unemployment, inflation and economic inequality are among the fundamental factors for the mounting ethno-nationalism and subsequent violent conflict throughout the country. Economic inequality and widespread unemployment staggering 17% in urban areas have contributed to the protests which mainly took place in urban Ethiopia (IPSS, 2020). Further strengthening this argument, a participant in an interview indicated that

socioeconomic conditions are worsening the situation. There is a significant population of unemployed or underemployed young men in Ethiopia. This creates a fertile recruiting ground for political mobilization for violence (KI 5, 30 April 2021)

Evidence indicates, 29.6 % of the Ethiopian population is living under a quagmire of poverty (IPSS, 2020). This has played a role as a source of grievance, easily facilitating ethnic mobilization (Semir, 2019). The socio-economic setbacks have widened the frustration gap which was further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The country has been in a crisis of foreign exchange reserve, the economy is sleeping, inflation is skyrocketing, many people are in trouble, confused and stressed (Interview6, 30 April 2021). In such a situation, with a soaring grievance, the occurrence of violent conflict and the youth easily mobilized to take part in it cannot be a surprise (Ibid). Apart from this, corruption and the absence of good governance have been exacerbating the problem (IPSS, 2020). The Transparency International Corruption Perception Index (CPI, 2020) ranked Ethiopia 94th out of 180 countries indicating the urgent need of promoting transparency and accountability to alleviate the problem (CPI, 2020).

5.4.4. Weak institutions

According to the global fragile states index (2020) report, Ethiopia is ranked 21st most fragile state out of 178 countries. This tells its own story as the report puts Ethiopia on red alert with a high risk of state collapse. With the increasing factionalization of the ruling elite, mounting grievance and declining legitimacy, the Ethiopian state is highly fragile and the risk of fragmentation of its state institutions along ethnic lines is high (ibid). This research identified three main reasons for the recent increasing fragility of state institutions in the country.

The first and the most important factor is the dominant role of the ruling party and its fusion with the state. Until the death of Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia was characterized by dominant

35 party rule (Kassahun, 2005). With EPRDF’s strong party discipline power was mostly exercised through party channels instead of state institutions (Kassahun, 2005). Consequently, it was difficult to distinguish the instruments of the party from the state (Veen, 2016). The strong and extended arm of the ruling party paradoxically made Ethiopia, a centralized and federated state for the last three decades (Veen, 2016; Semir, 2019). This means power remained centralized making the federal state structure futile. As a result, state institutions had never been autonomous institutions of checks and balances which could have mitigated conflicts (KI 3, 27 April 2021). Further strengthening this assertion, another respondent a senior researcher who had been studying Ethiopian politics for three decades noted that

Most of the institutions which could have served as a venue for dialogue and compromise are controlled by the ruling party. The main institution the parliament is 100% controlled by the ruling party and has never been a genuinely elected parliament. The judiciary in general is weak and vulnerable to executive interference. The election board and even new commissions established by Abiy to mitigate conflicts like the boundary and identity commission and the truth and reconciliation commission are also political vehicles used by the ruling party. (KI 7, 3 May 2021).

The weakness and inability of the state institutions to play their role and properly discharge their functions have been draining the trust and public confidence (Assefa, 2011). Recalling the failure of institutions to properly discharge their functions a respondent further argued that

…. now with the election process going on the election board and judiciary are accepting government interference, arrest of the opposition leaders and closing of opposition offices. As a result, these institutions are not trusted by anyone else (KI 7, 3 May 2021).

Let alone the parliament, judiciary, media and CSOs, even the autonomy and neutrality of the army is questioned in Ethiopia. The security and the intelligence sector, in Ethiopia, are instruments of the party (Veen, 2016). Despite the role of the army in peacekeeping in different parts of the continent, locally it is considered by many as partisan and with very low public trusted (KI 3, 27 April 2021; KI 8, 08 May 2021). Though the rank-and-file members of the army are drawn from all over Ethiopia, there had been previously Tigrian (Veen, 2016) and now Oromo disproportionate representation in the high-ranking positions of the army (KI

36

8, 08 May 2021). The political affiliation of the high-ranking officials who often belong to one ethnic group has drained the public trust. According to the fragility index report (2020), the lower public trust of the security sector in Ethiopia shows the fragility of the state which increases the vulnerability of the state collapse.

Secondly, the other important factor which weakened the state and party institutions was the power struggle between the dominant ethnic groups within the ruling circle. After the death of Meles Zenawi, the ruling party weakened, and power started to decentralize to regional states (KI 7, 3 May 2021). The regional states started to have the political agency for the first time and the race against the center started. Hailemariam was a legacy holder and mostly considered as less influential. The power struggle among the elites of the dominant ethnic groups within the EPRDF mounted with their desire to consolidate their power to assume the top leadership (KI 5, 30 April 2021). They frequently played their respective ethnic card. The competition between forces within EPRDF to consolidate their power has polarized their relationship which later on weakened the party and the state institutions (KI1, 23 April 2021). It was under this context that the regional states started to mobilize their own special forces and started to position themselves for a new conflict that was clearly imminent and looming (KI 7, 3 May 2021). The kernel of the problem is the state institutions were weak and due to the internal fragility and breakdown, the ruling party was not in a position to play its previous role. This political vacuum left the country in a disarray exposing Ethiopia to the explosion of violent conflicts in different parts of the country.

Thirdly, due to different reasons, political liberalization in Ethiopia has weakened state institutions. Answering the theoretical and empirical question of why political liberalization in Ethiopia, paradoxically, resulted in a new wave of ethno-nationalism and subsequent violence? needs further study. However, this study found that in the presence of grievances, competing nationalisms and historical narratives, transition and political liberalization allow different groups to express their views. Groups will consider the transition as the ripe moment to get their grievances recognized and their questions for an equitable share of power and resource answered (KI 3, 30 April 2021).

As Paulier (2019) argued during transitions, instead of political liberalization, the presence of a strong state and economic progress creates enabling environment for peace. This assertion holds water to explain the situation in post-2018-Ethiopia. However, there is ample evidence revealing the way liberalization was implemented has its defects. First, it was not genuine and

37 inclusive (KI 3, 27 April 2021). Second, it was not accompanied by other peacebuilding activities like investigation of gross violation of human rights and reconciliation (Ibid). The lack of autonomy of institutions has, of course, contributed to the absence of proper investigation and correction of past and present injustice (Human Rights Watch, 2021). Consequently, the opening of political space and liberalization was short-lived and weakened the state institutions which further exacerbated the already deteriorating situation in the country.

Generally speaking, in spite of the rhetoric of establishing federal and democratic state structure, in reality, state institutions remained weak and unable to regulate ethnic relations and mitigate conflicts. The fact is Ethiopia does not have autonomous institutions of checks and balances which could have helped to mitigate conflicts. On the other hand, for many reasons non-state actors mainly civil society organizations (CSOs) in Ethiopia remained weak and had never been an influential player in development (KI 7, 3 May 2021). Ethiopia does not have broad-based advocacy civil society groups which might have served as a conflict mitigating factor (Ibid).

5.4.5. Regional and International Dynamics

Regional and international actors have been impacting current Ethiopia’s local political dynamics. Ethiopia is geopolitically located in the heart of the volatile Horn of Africa (HOA) making the country to receive the attention of global superpowers. With the presence of failed states and its proximity to the Middle East, the region is feared as it may serve as an incubation center for terrorist organizations (Møller, 2009). Due to the global war on terror and the strategic location of the country in the region, Ethiopia was considered as an ally of the western countries for a long. The global war on terror was initially targeted on Afghanistan and Iraq, however, the HOA has also featured prominently (Møller, 2009). On top of that, with the country’s weak and aid-dependent economy, Ethiopia became vulnerable to foreign intervention.

The hydro-politics associated with the construction of the largest dam of the African continent over the Nile River made the country receive attention from the regional powers. The construction of the GERD on the Nile river has caused frequent diplomatic feuds between the riparian countries. Supporting internal dissidents was one of the common foreign policy instruments used in the Horn of Africa (Bayeh, 2015). Instead of engaging in direct

38 warfare, supporting Ethiopia’s internal secessionist movements was frequently used by the Egyptian government for a long time (Ibid).

Historically, different Egyptian regimes attempted to conquest Sudan and even Ethiopia with a desire to control the entire Nile basin (Daniel, 1999). Egypt had historically supported internal armed secessionist groups fighting the Addis Ababa government. For instance, the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) was established in Egypt in 1960 where the country supported the front to open its office in Cairo (Marcus, 1994; Bayeh, 2015), who later seceded Eritrea from Ethiopia in 1991. With the negotiations on the feeling and operation of the GERD stalled, the Ethiopian government has been pointing fingers at Egypt for supporting militias in the Benishangul Gumuz region of Ethiopia (The Reporter, 13 March 2021). The often-unorganized militias in this region used to fight with arrows and spears are now well organized and armed with sophisticated modern arms which is an indicator of the presence of international support (KI 1, April 23, 2021; KI 5 30 April 2021; KI 6, 30 April 2021).

Currently, the tripartite negotiation is stalled without any major agreement (ENA, July 15, 2021). There is a mounting diplomatic feud among the riparians where Ethiopia made clear that the second phase of filling the dam will take place in the coming rainy season which means in June-July. On the other hand, knowing the filling of the dam will change bargaining power in favor of Ethiopia, Egypt has been calling the construction to be paused until an agreement has been reached on the filling and operation of the dam. Apart from that, Egypt recalling the 1929 and 1959 colonial treaties to which Ethiopia was not a party (Yakob, 2011), has been threatening no drop of their water share can be reduced (Aljazeera, 31 March 2021; France 24, 3 May 2021). Eritrea’s involvement in the politics and security of Ethiopia is another foreign involvement impacting Ethiopia’s local politics. The internal war in Tigray was internationalized with the direct involvement of Eritrea. There is evolving strong argument that the government’s continued use of foreign forces (Eritrean) against its people further undermines Ethiopia’s stability and national unity (France 24, 3 May 2021).

5.5. The way Forward

The pathway to peace and deepening democracy in Ethiopia will not be an easy task. Data collected from the key informants indicate the absence of a simple and immediate solution for Ethiopia’s deeply entrenched and complicated problems. It needs a fundamental change in the political culture which is hard to come (KI 7, 3 May 2021). Introducing legal,

39 institutional, and socio-political reforms that could potentially abate the ongoing crisis in the country will be decisive. Creating institutions might be easy but bringing profound change in the political culture so that the institutions can properly function needs time, effort and concerted action among different actors extending from the local to the international level. By answering the third research question, this section pinpoints the important issues that need to be addressed at least to mitigate the conflict and prevent the country from potential disintegration.

5.5.1. Institution Building

Accommodating diversity while maintaining territorial integrity and sovereignty is one of the predominant preoccupations of states with divided societies, all over the world. This needs building genuine state and non-state institutions capable of holding diverse societies together. Beissenger (2002) argued that deepening democracy is the solution to install a system with proper horizontal and vertical checks and balances as well as to build the capacity of institutions that could solve conflicts before they turn into violence. As it was indicated under section 5.4., in Ethiopia institutions had never been autonomous institutions of check and balance. Consequently, horizontal and vertical accountability remained very low. Horizontal accountability is about the relationship between different organs of the state while vertical accountability is the relationship between the state and citizens (Ewald, 2013)

In Ethiopia, with the ‘rubber stamp’ type of parliament in the office where all seats are occupied by the ruling party, periodic elections are often conducted for the sake of formality. As a result, the government remained unresponsive to electoral sanctions. In addition to this, with the extended arm of the executive and the ruling party, the judiciary’s independence is widely questioned (Assefa, 2011). According to International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) report (2019), an independent judiciary and functioning parliament are important indicators for deepening democracy in a country. Unfortunately, all these are struggling in Ethiopia to properly discharge their function. This has made the check and balance and the horizontal as well as vertical accountability very weak, revealing the fragility of democracy in the country.

Hence, building genuine autonomous democratic institutions is a sine-qua-non condition to restore public trust and confidence (Assefa, 2011). To this end, opening political space for CSOs and the media as well as proper separation of power between the three organs of the state will be important. There should also be a clear boundary between the state and party

40 institutions. Otherwise, it will result in two undesirable consequences. Firstly, the extended arm of the ruling party in state institutions will drain the level playing field among the political parties which in turn makes elections uncompetitive and mere formalities. Second, the power struggle and failure in the ruling party structure will directly resonate to the state institutions making them vulnerable to fragmentation along ethnic lines.

5.5.3. Inclusive Dialogue

One of the underlying factors for the emergence of ethno-nationalism in Ethiopia is the real or perceived exclusion and marginalization. The solution for this is inclusive dialogue and building democratic institutions that can create enabling environment for peaceful resolution of ethnically mobilized conflicts.

Beissenger (2002) argued that the stability of democratization and sustainability of peace depends on the inclusiveness and the ability of the system to integrate all sections of society. This important ingredient was lacking in Ethiopia. With many groups feeling excluded the very inclusive nature of the reform and transition is questionable. The reform agenda in Ethiopia, which was introduced by Abiy Ahmed was not inclusive (KI 1, 23 April 2021). His administration excluded important sections like the TPLF unit which had a strong holding in the previous EPRDF leadership that ruled the country for a quarter of a century. As a result, the TPLF leadership withdrew from the ruling coalition as well as from national parliament and other state apparatus putting into question the inclusiveness and legitimacy of the national government (KI 3, 27 April 2021). A transition that could not bring all sections of society and political actors on board will struggle to bring sustainable peace (KI 1, 23 April 2021).

To move the country forward, opening political space and having inclusive dialogue presents an important and viable solution to detoxify the political environment (Semir, 2019) and calm the extreme ethno-nationalist moves which have been threatening to tear the country apart. If democracy had to deepen in this country, the delayed election should be free, participatory, and inclusive of all opposition parties which is unlikely. On the 19th of February 2021, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) announced its withdrawal from the upcoming national election, indicating the absence of enabling environment to participate in the election (DW, February 19, 2021). The Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) has also announced its withdrawal immediately. Both parties indicated that their offices are closed, their senior members are in jail revealing the absence of enabling environment to participate in the

41 upcoming election (Ibid). This puts the credibility and participatory nature of the upcoming election into question. Further strengthening this assertion, a participant in an interview indicated that

I do not think it's a good idea to have an election that doesn't involve key opposition. It makes the situation worse and if you allow or you facilitate an election where there is no really credible opposition, OLF and OFC have withdrawn in Oromia may be other parties may also withdraw then what does it mean an election? It's just rubber-stamping a government which has no mandate, and, in a sense, it would make the prospect of an inclusive negotiation even more difficult.

(KI 1, 23 April 2021).

Under such circumstances conducting an election and rubber-stamping government will neither give legitimacy to the government nor solve the multi-faceted problems Ethiopia has been facing recently. Inclusive dialogue, free, fair and participatory election needs deepening values of democracy. All political actors in the country should believe that peace should only come peacefully. Due to different reasons, in Ethiopia, there is a political culture where the political actors think about violence and conflict as adequate political tools to enforce their opinion (KI 7, 3 May 2021). The only means to assume power or extend tenure should be through inclusive, participatory elections. But with the credibility and inclusiveness of the upcoming election questioned and narrowing political space, many political actors are resorting to violence (KI 1, 23 April 2021). The interview participant further argued:

the withdrawal of political parties from the upcoming election will strengthen the hand of those who think that they can create facts on the ground by force. Still, there are too many people that in Ethiopian political life would think that they could win by force and that means the country is going to continue in a really difficult situation.

(KI 1, 23 April 2021)

Dialogue and peaceful discussions are the ways to resolve tensions and disagreements peacefully. Unfortunately, the government of Ethiopia is holding its stand on not negotiating with other actors. For instance, the former Ethiopian prime minister Hailemariam Dessalegn (2020), recalling the impunity and immoral nature of negotiating with rogue actors argued that an internationally brokered deal with TPLF would have ended with power sharing. According to Dessalegn (2020), this severely harms the cause for justice and sustainable

42 peace. The point he missed here is, will the war serve justice and sustainable peace? I would say no. Evidence also shows that after the war neither of the conflicting parties achieved their goal; instead, new problems and issues emerged further complicating the conflict dynamics (Addis Standard, 8 May 2021). But negotiation and dialogue might have at least prevented the publicly reported atrocious killings, rape and displacement.

The window of opportunity for dialogue and peaceful negotiation seems closed when the national parliament endorsed a council of misters' resolution designating the TPLF and OLA as terrorist organizations on 7 May 2021 (The Reporter, 8 May 2021). This research argues the ruling party, government and all other actors should believe in negotiation, dialogue, and peaceful resolution of conflicts. Lessons should be drawn from the recent war in Tigray, despite the war fought for over 6 months with reported atrocities, neither of the parties to the conflict has attained their aim (Addis Standard, 08 May 2021). CSOs and other actors should work on developing a culture of reasoned and civilized discussion instead of resorting to “hate speech” and violence which are deadly by their nature in the country (KI 6, 30 April 2021). Citizens should also understand that in the name of mobilizing along ethnic lines some political actors and their social media warriors are hijacking the legitimate causes of the people into violence for the sake of their ends.

5.5.4. Security Sector Reform

Max Weber identified that monopoly control of means of violence is the foundation of the state and its capacity to govern effectively (Acemoglu and Robinson, 2013). In Ethiopia, at the moment, the monopoly control of means of violence is at risk. There are different armed military units at different levels commanded by different centers in the country. At the national level, there are the national defense force and the federal police. On the other hand, all the 10 regional states have their own strong paramilitary, known as the special force (The Reporter, 2 January 2021).

Assessment of the legal grounds for the establishment of this security force reveals its unconstitutional nature. The federal constitution in its article 52 that defined the powers and functions of the regional states granted the right to the states “to establish and administer a state police force and maintain public order and peace within the state” (FDRE constitution, 1995, article 52). That means the federal constitution only allows regional states to have a police force, not a para-military force (KI 6, 30 April 2021). Hence the establishment of this

43 paramilitary (special force) is not in line with the provisions of the FDRE constitution (KI 1, 23 April 2021).

The genesis of establishing special forces dates to the early 2010s when the Somali region special force was established (The Reporter, 2 January 2021). The aim of establishing the Somali regional state paramilitary or special force was to curb the insurgent Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) (KI 1, April 23, 2021). However, establishing special force proliferated throughout all regions in the country. Even the recently established Sidama regional state inaugurated its first batch of special forces 2 months after the establishment of the region (The Reporter, 2 January 2021)

This has drained monopoly control of physical violence, impacting peace and development in Ethiopia. First, the establishment of these paramilitaries brought an arms race among the regional states with news of recruitment, training and inauguration broadcasted by the regional and national media outlets (The Reporter, 2 January 2021; KI 8, 8 May 2021). Secondly, since 2018 these forces were used by the respective regional states against either the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) or another regional force on different occasions. The reported involvement of the Tigray and Amhara special forces in the war in Tigray, the frequent clashes between the Afar and Somali special forces (Ethiopian reporter, 2 January 2021) are worth mentioning. The deadliest war has been occurring in Tigray between the Tigray special force, later become Tigrian Defence Force and ENDF since 4 of November 2021 which resulted in reported deaths of thousands and displacement of hundreds of thousands (EHRC, 2020; Human Rights Watch, 2021).

Generally, in the absence of monopoly control of physical means of violence, it will be difficult for the government of Ethiopia to effectively govern this vast country. Restoring peace and order and deepening democracy in the country needs revamping the security sector and ensuring monopoly control of means of violence in the country.

5.5.5. Inclusive Economic Development

Economy matters for peace (Callier, 2009). As it was discussed in the previous sections economic setbacks like youth unemployment, inflation and economic inequalities are at the heart of the conflict in Ethiopia. Among scholars and practitioners, there is agreement that economic revitalization should be a core component of peacebuilding (Strachan, 2013). In a similar vein, this thesis argues, the path forward in Ethiopia should make economic recovery

44 the fulcrum of its peacebuilding. Ethiopia has 112 million population (World Bank, 2019), which is projected to be 200 million by 2049 (World Population Review, 2021). The median age in the country is 17.9 where 60% of the population is under the age of 25 (Ibid). This indicates how the Ethiopian population is young. This presents both an opportunity and risk. To reap its benefits, the country should adopt youth-friendly policies that could create job opportunities and encourage entrepreneurship. Despite the presence of economic growth in Ethiopia in the last decade (Tadesse, 2011), many considered it as uneven and controlled by conglomerates associated with the ruling party and the dominant ethnic group (KI 2, 25 April 2021). This indicates the country needs to have inclusive economic growth that can control the increasing inflation.

5.5.6. Strengthening Civil Society Organizations (CSOs)

CSOs can play important role in reducing violence, building sustainable peace and serving as watchdogs which enhances accountability (Paffenholz, 2009; Ewald, 2013). In the presence of open political space, CSOs can play this role in Ethiopia. However, due to different reasons, CSOs remained weak in the country. With the liberalization during the transition period, the number of CSOs in Ethiopia increased in the 1990s (Yeshanew, 2012). Later on, restrictive legal constraints forwarded by the regime has halted the role of CSOs in Ethiopia.

The civil society proclamation introduced in 2009 has tied the hands and feet of CSOs in the country. Proclamation number 621/2009 was criticized as highly restrictive, allowing only local CSOs to engage in sectors of human rights, good governance, democracy and peacebuilding. This proclamation allows the CSOs to raise only 10% of their funding from foreign sources. Putting in other words, according to the 2009 proclamation, international CSOs cannot function in these sectors in Ethiopia. This has weakened CSOs' role in the peace and development of the country. As a result, the role of building sustainable peace was relegated to religious institutions and elders in the country (KI 7, 3 May 2021). But, historically, the religious organization, particularly the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, has been there to cement the power of the state or to give legitimacy to the power of the state, not to challenge it (Ibid). This made neither the formal CSOs nor traditional institutions can discharge the role of contributing to peace and democracy in the country.

In 2019 the country made an amendment in the Civil Society Proclamation which lifted many of the restrictions on the sector, including the arbitrary restriction on the use of foreign funds for the promotion and protection of human rights and democracy (Amnesty international,

45

2020). However, due to the narrowing political space in the last one and a half years, CSOs in the country are not in a position to play their role. A respondent to an interview further argued that

The closing down of the democratic space again over the last one and a half years indicates that and particularly today after the war in Tigray from the 4th of November everyone keeps quiet. Civil societies which are there are intimidated and timid and don't say anything against the terrible atrocities happening. To be frank, I have very little confidence in the civil society in Ethiopia, they are not to influence politics at the policy level. They are working at the lower level with development projects but they don't have the capacity, resources, qualifications maybe even interest to serve as peace stabilizing or conflict mitigating actors.

(KI 7, 3 May 2021)

This study argues CSOs should be further strengthened and supported so that they can play an advocacy role in promoting peace and democracy in Ethiopia. However, adequate care should also be given to the sector so that they should not fall into the trap of ethnicization in which other actors in the country have been dwelling.

5.5.7. International Support

Evidence shows that the recent political development occurring in Ethiopia is not welcomed by the international community. African Union (AU) appointed a special envoy to investigate the situation in Ethiopia in November 2020 (AFP, November 24, 2020). European Union (EU) has also indicated that the block is ready to use all foreign policy tools against “those responsible for human rights violations in Ethiopia” expressing the federal government’s denial of the grave humanitarian crisis in the country (Addis standard, March 23, 2021). Most recently, different news agencies also reported that the UN security council has conducted a meeting regarding the situation in Ethiopia which ended without agreement among the veto powers. Apart from that many countries including the USA cut their bilateral development aid to Ethiopia (US state department, 23 May 2021) to daunt the government from its action. The US state department (May 23, 202) announced visa restrictions on Eritrean and Ethiopian officials. This is based on the conventional wisdom of considering government as the dominant actor for the shrinking political space in the country.

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The international pressure currently exerted on Ethiopia was, of course, criticized for its failure to clearly understand the situation and context. For instance, Abbink (2021) pointed that policy narratives coming out of the long-term development partners of Ethiopia (the EU, UN and USA circles) sidelined essential details of the context, the nature of the adversaries, and the reasons of the conflict. Dessalegn (2020) has also argued the international community has ignored the complex political and moral realities and calling for dialogue between the TPLF and the government which would have ended in power-sharing and impunity might not be helpful. The fight against the national defense force is, of course, a serious issue that endangers territorial integrity and unity of the very Ethiopian state. Engaging in dialogue with such actors will cause impunity and may set a bad benchmark in a country that has multiple regional paramilitary forces negatively impacting justice and sustainable peace. Dessalegn (2020) has also indicated that the main reason behind the failure of internationally brokered peace deals in Africa is because they fail to capture the true nature of the conflict, they usually employ power-sharing agreements that immediately collapse after they are signed. This indicates a need to redefine the approaches international brokered dialogues should follow to address similar problems.

On the other hand, Ethiopia’s fragile economy dominated by the primary sector was characterized by a negative trade balance and shortage of foreign exchange reserves. This made the economy to be aid-dependent. Evidence shows that aid has been playing a significant role in the country’s economy. For instance, in the time between 1991 and 2010 foreign aid account for 13% of the total GDP of Ethiopia (Tadesse, 2021). The world bank data report (2021) shows that Ethiopia has received over 4 billion USD in the form of net official development assistance each year since 2016 (The World Bank Data, 2021).

A respondent who has worked with different development partners, in an interview, has also noted that Ethiopia receives a lot of foreign assistance and development partners should be careful about how they apply that money (KI 1, April 23, 2021). Sanctions against Ethiopia will not help as there are too many impoverished people in the country that means sanctions punish the poorest (KI 8, 8 May 2021). The international community can also resort to providing more support to the NGOs and CSOs than using the government channels albeit these entities are not immune from maladministration and corruption. The dilemma of the development cooperation community to invest in Ethiopia until there is a different settlement is understandable. A respondent in an interview, recalling governments involvement in a war

47 in the country, further argued that at this time it is very difficult to work with the Ethiopian government which doesn't seem to be committed to the wellbeing of its people (KI 1, 23 April 2021).

In this research, it is argued that the international community should continue supporting Ethiopia. With the global compact and a sense of ‘solidarity and not leaving anyone behind’ the international development cooperation community should continue supporting the country. This will have twofold benefits for the country and the international community. First, it will help the country to progress in achieving SDGs. Secondly, building democracy and strengthening peaceful development in this country will reduce the probability of refugee flows and conflict spill over to neighbouring countries which may destabilize the politics in the Horn of Africa, one of the volatile regions in the world.

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CHAPTER SIX

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Ethiopia, the uncolonized and oldest independent state of Africa, is currently engulfed with internal violent conflicts, putting the country on the verge of disintegration. This thesis argued that there are problems that need fixing to prevent the country from tearing apart. Based on the findings discussed in the previous chapters, the following conclusions are drawn, and recommendations are forwarded.

Evidence shows that most developing countries in the world are multi-ethnic by their nature. Governing highly divided societies remain a difficult task which came evident with the disintegration of several countries into smaller pieces. With more than 80 languages spoken across the country, Ethiopia is among the highly divided societies where ethno-nationalism has been challenging the territorial integrity and the very existence of the Ethiopian state. Ethiopia is the second-most populous African country with a long history of statehood. As a result, the country presents a good case to investigate how the upsurge of ethno-nationalism in highly divided societies can impact institutions of democracy and overall development. By exploring the case of Ethiopia, this qualitative study attempts to contribute to the study of highly divided fragile democracies.

This study found that the upsurge of ethno-nationalism and subsequent violent ethnic conflicts in Ethiopia is a result of a microcosm of local, national, regional and international factors. At the local level, the failed nation-building strategies that considered ethnic diversity as a threat to the national unity and territorial integrity of the Ethiopian state have laid the foundation for the politicization of ethnicity in the country. This attempt of creating a nation- state through centralization and assimilation has suppressed group rights, generating inequality and feeling of marginalization. This in turn created the ground for the proliferation of ethno-nationalist centrifugal armed groups that fought against the central government. In 1991, the juxtapose of the end of class-based politics with the overthrow of ‘socialist’ regime, the erstwhile ethnic marginalization and the ascendance of ethno-nationalists to power in Addis Ababa has installed a system that further institutionalized ethnicity.

Currently, there is a polarized relationship between political actors, ethnically delimited and militarized regional states, political parties, media outlets, and most importantly the elites. There is a contradictory interpretation of history which is manifested in the lack of consensus

49 on the history, the present, and the future of the Ethiopian state. Putting in other words, there is a lack of consensus among political actors on what Ethiopia was, what Ethiopia is, and what Ethiopia should be. Contradictory interpretation or absence of agreement among the elites and other political actors is also visible on fundamental issues like the national flag, and even on the national constitution which, strangely, gave the right to ethnic groups to secede. The worst scenario is the establishment of regional paramilitaries. This made the monopoly control of physical means of violence, the foundation for the viability of a state, at risk in Ethiopia. In general, the adoption of ethnic federalism and subsequent institutionalization of ethnicity in post-1991 Ethiopia has not solved the problem. Instead, it has further deepened the problem by decentralizing marginalization and exclusion to the regions. As a result, there has been a continued suppression, ever-increasing ethnic marginalization, identity-based killings, economic inequalities, soaring unemployment and inflation. These have created enabling environment for the upsurge of a new wave of ethnic nationalism, at the expense of pan-ethiopianism, in post-2015 Ethiopia. This has resulted in dreadful consequences.

At the regional level, the construction of Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Nile River made Ethiopia the epicenter of hydro politics of the region. Currently, with stalled negotiation on the filling and operation of the GERD diplomatic feuds among the riparian countries has been heating up with repercussion on peace and development in the region. Countries are reportedly engaged in supporting internal militias to sabotage the construction of the dam. This is among the destabilizing factors in Ethiopia.

At the international level, Ethiopia is geopolitically located in the heart of the volatile Horn of Africa. With the presence of failed states and its proximity to the Middle East, the region is considered as an incubation center for terrorist organizations. Due to the global war on terror and the strategic location of the country in the region, Ethiopia was considered as an ally of the western countries for a long. On top of that, with the country’s weak and aid-dependent economy, Ethiopia became vulnerable to foreign intervention. As a result, the interest of superpowers and their role in the peace and development of Ethiopia cannot be underestimated.

The cumulative effect of all these factors put the country’s fragile democracy and its very existence into a perilous situation. With the new wave of ethno-nationalism on the rise, the violent conflicts in the country are threatening to tear the country apart. This thesis argued

50 bailing the country out of the vicious cycle of war and poverty needs collaboration and a reconciled action among different actors extending from the local to the international level.

Based on the findings of this study the following recommendations are forwarded

• An All-inclusive National Dialogue and Re-inventing National Symbols

Contradictory interpretations and lack of agreement on the past and future of the country as well as on fundamental issues like the national flag and the constitution present a serious challenge that necessitates an all-inclusive dialogue. Dialogue is the only way out that can help the country to have a consensus and chart a better way forward. On top of that, the challenge for Ethiopia going forward is to find the all-embracing national symbols. Constructivism indicated that identity can be constructed and reconstructed. This thesis also argued that Ethiopia should recreate national symbols or invent national myths which are all- inclusive and embracing where no one can feel marginalized and excluded.

• Transcending Identity-based Politics to Issue-based Politics

Politicization and institutionalization of ethnicity accompanied by polarized relation among ethnically organized regional states, political parties, media outlets and elites has inculcated animosity and drained trust. In this research, it is argued that answering the national question, ensuring equality among ethnic groups does not necessarily need politicization and institutionalization of ethnicity. Ethiopia should slowly transcend from identity-based politics to issue-based politics. This does not mean that the country should adopt a centralized, unitary state structure. Instead, this research recommends that transcending identity-based politics to issue-based politics should be within the framework of federalism. In the presence of highly politicized and institutionalized ethnicity, changing identity-based politics to issue- based politics will be difficult though not impossible. This thesis argues, it can be successfully done step by step, not suddenly.

• Collaboration and Strengthening International Support

First, the international community should understand the complex nature of the problem in Ethiopia which cannot wholly be ascribed to the current regime. It is a result of accumulated age-old grievances where other actors should also take their share of responsibility. Sanctioning Ethiopia will not help as so many impoverished people may suffer.

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Strengthening support through CSO channels than the state might be better to daunt the government.

Second, the conventional approach of dealing with armed regional units or militias in an internationally brokered negotiation that predictably ends with power sharing may not work and needs redefining. This may end up with impunity and serving as a bad benchmark for other regional states or militias in the country. All actors should respect the rule of the game and constitutional order. But the current government’s move of designating some actors as terrorists will further narrow down the political space and shut the window of opportunity for potential all-inclusive future dialogue. Regional organizations like the AU should also exert more effort to solve the regional problems which have been resonating to local politics in Ethiopia.

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Annex: List Interviews

The anonymized list of participants in the key informant interviews (KIs) is summarized below. A total of nine participants including researchers and journalists from different backgrounds were consulted for this study.

Anonymized Sex Ethnic group/citizenship Experience participant KI 1 F Expatriate Researcher on Ethiopian politics and published author KI 2 M Amhara Researcher and Ph.D. candidate KI 3 M Oromo Researcher and Ph.D. candidate KI 4 M Gurage Assistance professor of Political Science KI 5 M Expatriate Journalist and Analyst of Ethiopian politics KI 6 M Shinasha Lecturer of Law KI 7 M Expatriate Researcher on Ethiopian politics and published author KI 8 M Amhara Assistant professor and researcher on Ethiopian politics KI 9 M Tigrian Researcher and Ph.D. candidate of Peace and Conflict Research

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