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A Rising Regional Power: Making Sense of Ethiopia's Influence in the Horn of Africa Region

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A Rising Regional Power: Making Sense of Ethiopia's Influence in the Horn of Africa Region Florida International University FIU Digital Commons FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations University Graduate School 10-16-2020 A Rising Regional Power: Making Sense of Ethiopia's Influence in the Horn of Africa Region Yonas K. Mulat [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd Part of the Comparative Politics Commons, and the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Mulat, Yonas K., "A Rising Regional Power: Making Sense of Ethiopia's Influence in the Horn of Africa Region" (2020). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 4590. https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/4590 This work is brought to you for free and open access by the University Graduate School at FIU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of FIU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY Miami, Florida A RISING REGIONAL POWER: MAKING SENSE OF ETHIOPIA’S INFLUENCE IN THE HORN OF AFRICA A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in POLITICAL SCIENCE by Yonas Ketsela Mulat 2020 To: Dean John F. Stack, Jr. Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs This dissertation, written by Yonas Ketsela Mulat and entitled A Rising Regional Power: Making Sense of Ethiopia’s Influence in the Horn of Africa, having been approved in respect to style and intellectual content, is referred to you for judgment. We have read this dissertation and recommend that it be approved. __________________________________________ Felix Martin __________________________________________ Eric Lob __________________________________________ Hilary Jones __________________________________________ John Clark, Major Professor Date of Defense: October 16, 2020 The dissertation of Yonas Ketsela Mulat is approved. __________________________________________ Dean John F. Stack, Jr. Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs ___________________________________________ Andrés G. Gil Vice President for Research and Economic Development and Dean of the University Graduate School Florida International University, 2020 ii DEDICATION I dedicate this work to my late father Ketsela Mulat who taught me the values of hard work, humility and education AND to my son Amanuel iii ACKNOWLE DGMENTS I am grateful to everyone who has helped me in my journey of becoming a Ph.D. F irst and forem ost, I wo uld li ke to express my sincere gr atitude to m y adviso r, Pro f . John Clark w h ose consta nt en couragement was v ital to fini sh my studies. H is pa tience and motivation helped me complete this d issert ation. His d eep kn owledge of an d love for Africa and its people have helped me during the r esearch an d writin g of thi s thesis. I co uld not have imagined ha ving a be tter a dvis or and m entor. Besides my ad visor, I would like to thank the rest of my thesis committee members Prof. Felix Ma rtin , Prof. Hila ry Jones, and Dr. Eric Lob, for their insightful comments and encouragement, bu t also for the hard question which m otivated m e to widen my re search from vario us perspe ctiv es. P rof. Marti n’s ca re and advice went well beyond m y diss ertation, as he always in quired about my p erson al life and shared his va luab le experience fro m his days as a P h.D. S tud ent. Many thanks go to people at FIU and the Department of P olitics and Interna tional Relations f or their assistance w ith my studies. I would like to thank Dr. Shlomi Dinar for his insi ghtfu l comments to the draft dissertation an d his kind support in extend ing my PhD. Completion da te. I also want to than k D r. Cleme nt Fatovic, Dr. Dario Mo reno, Dr. Judith Stieh m, Dr. Tatiana Kostad inova, Dr. Roland Cox, Dr. Erin Damman, Dr. Danielle Clealan d, Maria Wilkins on-Diaz, and Er ika Posada. I also want to thank Maria Melendez-Vargas and Elva Mo lina for h elping me naviga te the institutional review board process. iv I’d like to thank my fellow graduate students: Fiacre Bienvenu, Nicolas Terradas, Bryant Sculos, Marc Mayo, Anand Shastri, Ahmad Mirtaheri, Arash Reisinzhad, Bibek Chand and Craig Lang for all the stimulating discussions and for all the fun we have had during the many busy times. My long-time friends and colleagues from Addis Ababa University – Demissie Fantaye, Alexander Vadala, Deresse Getachew – and Sebawit Bishu from FIU read and commented on the dissertation proposal. I cannot begin to express my gratitude to my family for the love, support, and encouragement along this journey. Special thanks to my mother, Mulu Makonnen, for her prayers and love that sustains me throughout my life. I also want to thank my brother Samson, and sisters Frehiwot and Bethlehem, for their love and belief in my success. I am deeply indebted to Dr. Mekbib, Gera, Hirut and Teddy for being my loving family away from my home country. Last but not the least, I would like to thank my wife Kidist, for putting up with my long hours of research including weekends at the library. The completion of my education would have been unthinkable without her patience, understanding, and, most of all, love. Finally, I am grateful to have had the privilege of attending Florida International University. This experience has afforded me the opportunity to work with some of the best and brightest, and the resources to achieve great success. Thank you for this opportunity. v ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION A RISING REGIONAL POWER: MAKING SENSE OF ETHIOPIA’S INFLUENCE IN THE HORN OF AFRICA by Yonas Ketsela Mulat Florida International University, 2020 Miami, Florida Professor John Clark, Major Professor This research investigates the conditions under which a state’s regional influence increases, or a state becomes a regional power, using an in-depth analysis of the case of Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa. I make a two-fold argument (a) developments in the Horn of Africa over the last two decades show that the regional influence of Ethiopia has been growing, and (b) analysis of attributional capabilities – population, military, economy – alone do not fully explain this development. This dissertation tests a hypothesis derived from neo-classical realism recognizing that relative power (vis a vis the neighbors), although key to understanding both regional political standing and foreign policy, does not fully explain the rise of a regional power. I then use historical institutionalism to identify critical junctures in Ethiopia’s history that have contributed to state capacity. The research capitalizes on qualitative secondary sources and archival data to identify critical junctures that (a) expanded Ethiopian identity from a northern core to a larger community and (b) identified the people of Ethiopia more strongly with the central state over time. I conclude that, the theoretical shift to national level vi institutional transformation and critical junctures explain external relations in a weak-states regional system as in the Horn of Africa where national borders are contested, nation-building projects are unfinished, and cross-border intervention in support of insurgencies is prevalent. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE 1. Introducti on ............................... ................................ ................................ ........ 1 The Turn towards Regions in IR ....................................................................... 5 Regional Powers: State of the Research .......................................................... 8 The Research Parameter: Horn of Africa as a Sub-region.............................. 13 Theoretical Framework and Hypotheses ........................................................ 21 Methodology and Methods of Gathering Data ................................................ 27 Significance of the Study ................................................................................ 30 Dissertation Outline......................................................................................... 31 2. E thiopia as a Regional Po wer - Bilateral Relations with Somalia and Eritrea . 33 Ethiopia’s Role in Somalia .............................................................................. 34 Peace Initiatives in Shattered Somalia............................................................ 38 The Arta Peace Process and the TNG............................................................ 43 The Eldoret/Mbaghati Peace Conferences and the TFG ................................ 47 Ethiopian Military Interventions in Somalia ..................................................... 51 Ethiopia Relations with Eritrea: Military Defeat and Containment ................... 61 Chapter Conclusion ........................................................................................ 75 3. Ethiopia as a Regional Power - Projection of interest, Provision o f public go od s and Pe rc ep tion o f inf luence ............................................................ ......... 79 Projection of Interest ....................................................................................... 82 Projection of Ethiopia’s Values: Federalism in Somalia .................................. 88 Provision of Public Goods ............................................................................... 92 Provision of Economic Goods ......................................................................... 93 Provision of Security - Peacekeeping ............................................................
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