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“ Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia and Agriculture Food Paul Dorosh and Shahidur Rashid Editors Dorosh • PROGRESS AND Rashid Food POLICY CHALLENGES Editors and Agriculture in Ethiopia Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia This book is published by the University of Pennsylvania Press (UPP) on behalf of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as part of a joint-publication series. Books in the series pre- sent research on food security and economic development with the aim of reducing poverty and eliminating hunger and malnutrition in developing nations. They are the product of peer-reviewed IFPRI research and are selected by mutual agreement between the parties for publication under the joint IFPRI-UPP imprint. Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia Progress and Policy Challenges EDITED BY PAUL A. DOROSH AND SHAHIDUR RASHID Published for the International Food Policy Research Institute University of Pennsylvania Press Philadelphia Copyright © 2012 International Food Policy Research Institute All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations used for purposes of review or scholarly citation, none of this book may be reproduced in any form by any means without written permission from the publisher. Published by University of Pennsylvania Press Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104-4112 www.upenn.edu/pennpress Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data CIP DATA TO COME Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Contents List of Figures vii List of Tables ix List of Boxes xv Foreword xvii Acknowledgments xix Acronyms and Abbreviations xxiii Glossary xxvii 1 Introduction 1 PAUL DOROSH AND SHAHIDUR RASHID PART I Overview and Analysis of Ethiopia’s Food Economy 2 Ethiopian Agriculture: A Dynamic Geographic Perspective 21 JORDAN CHAMBERLIN AND EMILY SCHMIDT 3 Crop Production in Ethiopia: Regional Patterns and Trends 53 ALEMAYEHU SEYOUM TAFFESSE, PAUL DOROSH, AND SINAFIKEH ASRAT GEMESSA 4 Seed, Fertilizer, and Agricultural Extension in Ethiopia 84 DAVID J. SPIELMAN, DAWIT KELEMEWORK MEKONNEN, AND DAWIT ALEMU 5 Policies and Performance of Ethiopian Cereal Markets 123 SHAHIDUR RASHID AND ASFAW NEGASSA 6 Livestock Production and Marketing 159 ASFAW NEGASSA, SHAHIDUR RASHID, BERHANU GEBREMEDHIN, AND ADAM KENNEDY v vi Contents 7 Patterns in Foodgrain Consumption and Calorie Intake 190 GUUSH BERHANE, LINDEN MCBRIDE, KIBROM TAFERE HIRFRFOT, AND SENESHAW TAMIRU PART II Major Agricultural and Food Policy Interventions in Ethiopia 8 Implications of Accelerated Agricultural Growth for Household Incomes and Poverty in Ethiopia: A General Equilibrium Analysis 219 PAUL DOROSH AND JAMES THURLOW 9 Disaster Response and Emergency Risk Management in Ethiopia 256 JOHN GRAHAM, SHAHIDUR RASHID, AND MEHRAB MALEK 10 Targeting Food Security Interventions in Ethiopia: The Productive Safety Net Programme 280 SARAH COLL-BLACK, DANIEL O. GILLIGAN, JOHN HODDINOTT, NEHA KUMAR, ALEMAYEHU SEYOUM TAFFESSE, AND WILLIAM WISEMAN 11 The Evolving Role of Agriculture in Ethiopia’s Economic Development 318 PAUL DOROSH Contributors 329 Index 335 Figures 2.1 Characteristics of rainfall and altitude 23 2.2 Dominant cereals in Ethiopia 25 2.3 Map of woreda domain assignments, 1994 30 2.4 Map of woreda domain assignments, 2007 31 2.5 Travel time to a city, 1994 and 2007 35 2.6 Fixed-line and cellular telephones, 2003, 2008, 2009, and 2010 39 3.1 Shares of area cultivated, by farm size and agroecology, 2007/08 57 3.2 Per capita cereal consumption and imports, 1961/62–2008/09 64 4.1 Total and per capita grain production and grain yields, 1991/92–2007/08 89 4.2 Area under improved seed application and quantity of improved seed distributed, cereals only, 1993/94–2007/08 93 4.3 Area under improved seed application, main cereal crops, 1995/96–2007/08 95 4.4 A schematic of the Ethiopian seed system 97 4.5 Hybrid maize seed distribution, by type of supplier, 1993–2008 97 4.6 Basic seed demand and supply for maize hybrid multiplication, 2006–08 99 4.7 Raw seed production, Ethiopian Seed Enterprise, 2000–08 99 4.8 Hybrid maize seed–grain price ratios and real seed prices, 1991/92–2007/08 101 4.9 Fertilizer imports, 1996–2008 105 4.10 Fertilizer use intensity, 1996–2008 105 4.11 Fertilizer value–cost ratios, 1992, 1997, 2004, and 2008 107 4.12 Fertilizer import shares, by type of importer, 1996–2008 110 5.1 Trends in road development in Ethiopia, 1951–2007 131 5.2 Cellular phone ownership per 100 people in Ethiopia and its neighbors, 2000–08 133 5.3 Cereal value chain map involving traditional market channels in Ethiopia 135 6.1 Outflow of cattle, sheep, and goats, 2009 165 vii viii Figures 7.1 Nonparametric regression estimates of per capita food expenditure, 2004/05 193 7.2 Nonparametric Engel curve, 2004/05 193 7.3 Share of major cereals in total food expenditures in Ethiopia, by income group and rural–urban place of residence, 2004/05 199 7.4 Distribution of rural population, by region and livelihood, 2008 206 7.5 Ethiopia’s rural agropastoral population, by region, 2008 206 7.6 Ethiopia’s rural pastoral population, by region, 2008 207 7.7 Share of major cereals in total food expenditures, 1994/95, 1999/2000, and 2004/05 211 7.8 Share of major cereals in total food expenditures across income quintiles, 1994/95, 1999/2000, and 2004/05 211 7.9 Ethiopia Regional Hunger Index, 2005 214 8.1 Zones in the Dynamic Regional Economywide Model of Ethiopia (DREME), with city sizes, road types, and agroecological zones indicated, 2009 222 8.2 National poverty headcount results from the model scenarios, 2005–15 230 8.3 Current, expected, and targeted crop yields, 2005 and 2015 232 8.4 Changes in real market prices from the baseline under the “all agriculture” scenario, 2005–15 239 10.1 Incidence of PSNP, public works, and direct support transfers, by region and per capita or total consumption decile, 2007 306 Tables 1.1 Summary of major historical events in Ethiopia, 1890–2010 3 1.2 Ethiopia: Selected economic variables, 1981–2009 10 1.3 Ethiopia: Selected economic and social indicators, 1981–2009 11 1.4 East African countries: Selected indicators, 2009 13 2.1 Traditional ecological zones and altitudinal ranges of selected crops 24 2.2 Domain summary statistics: Share of national totals by domain factor, 1994 and 2007 (percent) 31 2.3 Domain summary statistics: Domain share of national totals, 1994 and 2007 (percent) 32 2.4 Percentage of regions’ populations connected to a city of at least 50,000 people, by access time, 2007 36 2.5 Percentage change in regions’ connection to a city of at least 50,000 people, by access time, 1994–2007 36 2.6 Electricity-generating capacity, 1958–2011 (annual averages) 38 2.7 Fixed-line and cellular telephones in Ethiopia compared to all of Africa, 2003, 2008, 2009, and 2010 39 2.8 Agglomeration index: Percentage of people considered urban by region, 1984, 1994, and 2007 40 2.9 Alternative urbanization estimates, 1984, 1994, and 2007 41 3.1 Crop area and production (smallholder farms, meher season), 2004/05–2007/08 55 3.2 Total area cultivated, by farm size and agroecology, 2007/08 56 3.3 Crop area, by season and size of farm, 2007/08 58 3.4 Crop production, by season and size of farm, 2007/08 59 3.5 Crop yields, by season and size of farm, 2007/08 60 3.6 Cereal area, yield, and production, decade averages and growth rates, 1961/62–2008/09 63 3.7 Average cereal production, area covered, and yield, by crop, 2004/05–2007/08 (1997–2000 E.C.) 66 3.8 Cereal area cultivated, decade averages, 1961/62–2008/09 67 ix x Tables 3.9 Median contributions to changes in quantity of cereal production, by crop and year, 1998/99–2007/08 (percent) 70 3.10 Median contributions to changes in cereal revenue, by crop and development domain, all periods, 1998/99–2007/08 (percent) 71 3.11 Median contributions to changes in cereal revenue, by crop and period, 1998/99–2007/08 (percent) 72 3.12 Median contributions to changes in cereal revenue, by development domain and period, 1998/99–2007/08 (percent) 73 3.13 Area cultivated, share of all crops, and growth rate (smallholders, meher season), 1994/95–2008/09 75 3.14 Fertilizer application, by crop, private holdings, 1997/98, 2001/02, 2007/08 78 3.15 Area under improved farm management, by practice and crop, private holdings, 1997/98, 2001/02, 2007/08 78 3.16 Cereal yield, by country and year, 2006–08 80 3.17 Yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum, by country and year, 2006–08 (kilograms per hectare) 81 4.1 Policy regimes and development programs in agricultural input systems and markets, 1957–95 86 4.2 Policy regimes and development programs in agricultural input systems and markets, 1995–present 90 4.3 Yields in on-farm field trials using improved seed and fertilizer versus farmers’ yields using traditional cultivation practices, 1993–2008 (metric tons per hectare) 91 4.4 Seed supply shortfalls in Ethiopia, 2005–08 95 4.5 Fertilizer value–cost ratios, 1992–2008 108 4.6 Major problems of the fertilizer supply system, 2004 and 2009 109 4.7 Development agents and farmer training centers, 2008 112 4.8 Agricultural Technical and Vocational Education and Training (ATVET) college graduates, 2003–04 to 2007–08 115 4.9 Frequency of visits by an extension agent during the previous main growing season, 2004 and 2009 115 5.1 Number of trucks and telephone subscriptions and kilometers of road network, by type (thousands) 130 5.2 Size and distribution of licensed commercial trucks, by operator groups, 2006 133 5.3 Broad structural changes in Ethiopian cereal markets since the 1960s 138 5.4 Processing capacity
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