writenet is a network of researchers and writers on human rights, forced migration, ethnic and political conflict WRITENET writenet is the resource base of practical management (uk) e-mail: [email protected] independent analysis ETHIOPIA: A SITUATION ANALYSIS AND TREND ASSESSMENT A Writenet Report by Sarah Vaughan commissioned by United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Protection Information Section (DIP) January 2004 Caveat: Writenet papers are prepared mainly on the basis of publicly available information, analysis and comment. The papers are not, and do not purport to be, either exhaustive with regard to conditions in the country surveyed, or conclusive as to the merits of any particular claim to refugee status or asylum. The views expressed in the paper are those of the author and are not necessarily those of UNHCR, Writenet or Practical Management. ETHIOPIA: A SITUATION ANALYSIS AND TREND ASSESSMENT TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Acronyms ..................................................................................... iii Executive Summary ..................................................................................v 1 Introduction........................................................................................1 2 Review of the Contemporary Situation ...........................................4 2.1 State/Government ........................................................................................4 2.1.1 Ethnic Federalism: Constitutional Framework and Issues ................4 2.1.2 Organization of the Executive ..............................................................5 2.1.3 Political Representation: Parliamentary Bodies..................................7 2.1.4 Recourse to Justice: the Judiciary and Police .....................................8 2.1.5 Recourse to Force: the Military and Security Apparatus..................12 2.1.6 Conclusions and Implications ............................................................14 2.2 The Political Party System ........................................................................15 2.2.1 The Ruling Party, EPRDF..................................................................15 2.2.2 EPRDF-affiliated Organizations in So-called Emergent States.......16 2.2.3 Opposition Parties...............................................................................17 2.2.4 Multi-partyism and the Electoral Landscape.....................................18 2.2.5 Conclusions and Implications ............................................................20 2.3 Civil Society / Associational Life ..............................................................20 2.3.1 Religious Activity.................................................................................20 2.3.2 Developmental Activity: NGOs and Civic Bodies ..............................21 2.3.3 The Private Media...............................................................................23 2.3.4 Commercial Activity: the Private Sector ............................................23 2.3.5 Conclusions and Implications ............................................................24 2.4 Popular Experiences ..................................................................................24 2.4.1 Relevant Trends in Socio-political Culture........................................24 2.4.2 Local Experiences of State Authority Structures...............................26 3 Contemporary Threats to Sociopolitical and Human Rights......27 3.1 Conflict and Insecurity..............................................................................27 3.1.1 So-called Ethnic Conflict....................................................................28 3.1.2 So-called Pastoralist Conflict .............................................................28 3.1.3 Conflict for Control of the State.........................................................29 3.1.4 The Aftermath of the Ethio-Eritrean War, 1998-2000......................30 3.2 Economic Threats: Food Insecurity, Poverty, Unemployment .............31 3.2.1 Major Strands of Economic Policy ....................................................31 3.2.2 Issues of Concern in Economic Development ...................................32 3.3 The State and Political Rights...................................................................34 3.3.1 The Impact of Ethnic Federalism ......................................................34 3.3.2 The Treatment of Political Activists and Critics................................36 3.4 Social Sanctioning of Human Rights Violations .....................................37 3.4.1 Women’s Rights and Gendered Discrimination ................................37 3.4.2 Taboos and Occupational Minorities.................................................38 3.4.3 Treatment of the Landless, Destitute and Displaced .........................38 3.4.4 Homosexuality.....................................................................................39 3.5 Factors Influencing Trends and Outlook ................................................39 3.5.1 The State and Political Rights ............................................................39 3.5.2 Conflict ................................................................................................40 3.5.3 Socio-economic Threats......................................................................40 4 Refugee and IDP Movements and Status ......................................41 4.1 The Current Situation ...............................................................................41 4.1.1 Somali Refugees..................................................................................41 4.1.2 Sudanese Refugees..............................................................................42 4.1.3 Kenyan and Djiboutian Refugees.......................................................44 4.1.4 IDPs/refugees from Eritrean Border Areas.......................................44 4.1.5 Other IDPs...........................................................................................45 4.1.6 Ethiopian Refugees.............................................................................45 4.2 Factors Influencing Trends and Outlook ................................................46 4.2.1 The Domestic Context.........................................................................46 4.2.2 (In)stability in Neighbouring Countries ............................................47 4.2.3 Relations and Conflict with Neighbouring Countries.......................48 5 Conclusions: Trends and Policy Implications...............................49 5.1 The Current Situation, and Prospects .....................................................49 5.2 Policy Implications.....................................................................................51 6 Bibliography .....................................................................................54 ii List of Acronyms AAPO All-Amhara People’s Organization AAU Addis Ababa University ACC Anti-Corruption Commission ADLI Agricultural Development-Led Industrialization AEUP All-Ethiopia Unity Party (formerly AAPO) ANDM Amhara National Democratic Movement (EPRDF member) ARRA Administration for Refugee and Returnee Affairs CBE Commercial Bank of Ethiopia CSA Central Statistical Agency DMLEK Democratic Movement for the Liberation of Eritrean Kunama EDP Ethiopian Democratic Party EDU Ethiopian Democratic Union EDUP Ethiopian Democratic Unity Party (EDU and EDP merger) EEBC Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission EFFORT Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigray EHRCO Ethiopian Human Rights Council EIU Economist Intelligence Unit EPDM Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (now ANDM) EPLF Eritrean People’s Liberation Front EPRDF Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front EPRP Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party EWLA Ethiopian Women Lawyers’ Association FCO (UK) Foreign and Commonwealth Office FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia FGM Female Genital Mutilation (GO)NGO (government-oriented) non-governmental organization GPDM Gambella People’s Democratic Movement GPDUP Gambella People’s Democratic Unity Party ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross IDP Internally Displaced Person IGAD Inter-Governmental Agency on Development IMF International Monetary Fund NOVIB Netherlands Organization for International Development Co-operation OAU Organization of African Unity OLF Oromo Liberation Front ONC Oromo National Congress ONLF Ogaden National Liberation Front OPDO Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (ERPDF member) PDO People’s Democratic Organization iii PSCAP Public Service Delivery Capacity Building Programme REST Relief Society of Tigray SEPDC Southern Ethiopian Peoples’ Democratic Coalition SEPDF Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Front (EPRDF member) SIRAA Security, Immigration and Refugee Affairs Agency SNNPRS Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Regional State SPLA Sudan People’s Liberation Army SPO Special Prosecutor’s Office SSIM South Sudan Independence Movement TGE Transitional Government of Ethiopia TPLF Tigray People’s Liberation Front (EPRDF member) UEDF United Ethiopian Democratic Forces UNAIDS Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNMEE UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea USAID United States Agency for International Development USCR United States Committee for Refugees WPE Workers’ Party of Ethiopia (Dergue era) iv Executive Summary Since 1991 the Ethiopian government has been engaged in three