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Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net

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Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Cover Sheet November 2015 Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) Dominic Woolf1, Eleanor Milne2, Mark Easter2, Stefan Jirka1, Dawit Solomon1, Stephen DeGloria1, and Johannes Lehmann1 1 Cornell University 2 Colorado State University Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety-Net Program (PSNP) This report was prepared on behalf of The World Bank by: Dominic Woolf1, Eleanor Milne2, Mark Easter2, Stefan Jirka1, Dawit Solomon1, Stephen DeGloria1, and Johannes Lehmann1. 1 Cornell University 2 Colorado State University November 2015 Please cite this work as follows: Woolf, D., Jirka, S., Milne, E., Easter, M., DeGloria, S., Solomon, D., & Lehmann, J. 2015. “Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety-Net Program (PSNP)”. A World Bank Climate Smart Initiative (CSI) Report. Cornell University. https://ecommons.cornell.edu/handle/1813/41296 The PSNP is implemented by the Government of Ethiopia with support from the following development partners: Canadian International Development Agency, Irish Aid, European Commission, Royal Netherlands Embassy, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, UK Department for International Development, United States Agency for International Development, World Food Program and World Bank. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures .................................................................................................................................. 4 Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... 6 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 8 1.1 What types of models are available ................................................................................. 8 1.1.1 The IPCC Method ...................................................................................................... 9 1.1.2 Dynamic Approaches .............................................................................................. 10 2 Methods ................................................................................................................................ 12 2.1 Overall Approach ............................................................................................................ 12 2.2 Modeling Platform ......................................................................................................... 14 2.2.1 The Dynamic Modeling Option ............................................................................... 17 2.3 Geospatial analysis ......................................................................................................... 21 2.3.1 Site mapping ........................................................................................................... 21 2.3.2 Net primary production .......................................................................................... 34 2.3.3 Climate maps .......................................................................................................... 35 2.3.4 Land cover mapping ................................................................................................ 38 2.4 CBP Data collection ........................................................................................................ 44 2.4.1 Scenario development ............................................................................................ 44 2.4.2 Factors for Tier 2 approach in PSNP sites ............................................................... 47 2.5 Leakage ........................................................................................................................... 48 3 Results ................................................................................................................................... 50 3.1 Dynamic modeling .......................................................................................................... 61 4 Discussion.............................................................................................................................. 64 4.1 Comparison of Dynamic Modelling to IPCC Tier 1 and Tier 2 Assessment .................... 64 4.2 Potential sources of uncertainty in modeling results .................................................... 66 4.3 Methods to further reduce uncertainty ......................................................................... 68 4.3.1 Collating improved activity data ............................................................................. 68 4.3.2 Improved Tier 2 factors for PSNP regions/activities ............................................... 68 4.4 Cost-benefit analysis and Drivers-Pressures-States-Impact-Response (DPSIR) analysis 69 4.5 A 1st order estimate of Potential Carbon benefits in PSNP ............................................ 70 2 4.6 Variability in carbon benefits ......................................................................................... 72 5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................... 72 6 References ............................................................................................................................ 76 Annex 1. Simplified activity data questionnaire ........................................................................... 80 Annex 2. Detailed site-by-site carbon benefits model results ...................................................... 83 Annex 3. Site Descriptions .......................................................................................................... 112 Annex 4. Dynamic model parameter values ............................................................................... 190 3 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Screenshot of one of the spatial data entry pages of the Carbon Benefits Project ...... 15 Figure 2: Sc``reenshot of the CBP page where users describe areas in different land use categories and numbers of livestock ............................................................................................ 15 Figure 3: Screenshot of a CBP Simple Assessment page where users enter land management information for annual croplands. N.B., ‘Initial Land Use’ is highlighted showing that the user is entering management information for annual cropland which was present before the project started. Annual cropland is selected from the left hand menu showing that data is being entered for this land use category. ............................................................................................... 16 Figure 4: Management Sequence Diagram for the Asore site in Alaba Special Woreda, SNNPR. 18 Figure 5: Screenshot of the CBP Detailed Assessment page where users enter land management information for annual croplands. ................................................................................................ 19 Figure 6: Screenshot of the CBP Detailed Assessment page where users can enter Tier 2 emission factors. ........................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 7: Spatial layers used to construct the run file that drives the Dynamic Modeling Option. ....................................................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 8: CSI survey woredas and site locations. The corridor created by CSI sites extending from Oromia in the south to Tigray in the north is shaded in light blue............................................... 22 Figure 9: Satellite image of Weira Amba PSNP site in Habru woreda, Amhara, showing land use categories with woodland and grassland on upper slopes transitioning to cropland and gulley restoration works on lower slopes. The adjacent kebele used as a control site where no PSNP intervention has been implemented can be seen in the background. Yellow pins indicate location of 1m soil profiles sampled. ............................................................................................ 32 Figure 10: Location, land cover, and land management maps of the CSI survey sites. ............... 33 Figure 11: Net Primary Production (NPP) in Ethiopia. 10-year average (2004-2013) derived from MODIS satellite measurements of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation. ..................... 34 Figure 12: Example of climate interpolation using NewLocClim software, with left panel showing location of the climate stations selected for a central location in Ethiopia, and right panel showing the elevation correction regression. .............................................................................. 35 Figure 13: Mean annual temperature (MAT) in Ethiopia. ............................................................ 36 Figure 14: Annual potential evapotranspiration (PET) in Ethiopia. .............................................. 36 Figure 15: Annual precipitation in Ethiopia .................................................................................. 37 Figure 16: Aridity index (AI) in Ethiopia. AI less than 1 signifies that potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation. ................................................................................................................... 37 Figure 17: Forest land cover proportion and accuracy assessment statistics in four sites: (a) Asore,
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