An Inter-State War in the Post-Cold War Era: Eritrea-Ethiopia (1998-2000)
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LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE An Inter-state War in the Post-Cold War Era: Eritrea-Ethiopia (1998-2000) Alexandra Magnolia Dias A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations 2008 UMI Number: U501303 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U501303 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 v \& & > F 'SZV* AUTHOR DECLARATION I certify that all material in this thesis which is not my own work has been identified and that no material has previously been submitted and approved for the award of a degree by this or any other University. Alexandra Magnolia Dias The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without prior consent of the author. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I understand that in the event of my thesis not being approved by the examiners, this declaration will become void. 2 Abstract Inter-state wars are not one of the most salient features of current world politics. Indeed, the prevailing patterns of contemporary armed conflict show an increasing trend in intra-state wars that spill over borders. Beyond the continuities with the thirty-year civil war in Ethiopia, namely in the relations between the two former insurgent movements, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), the 1998- 2000 war was waged between the armed forces of two sovereign states: Eritrea and Ethiopia. This is one of the few cases of inter-state war in Africa. The case-study provides evidence to contradict the strand of the literature which claims that we are witnessing a decisive transformation of warfare (Van Creveld, 1991); (Kaldor, 1999). The central claim of the thesis is that neighbouring states do fight over territory. Indeed, territory is central to understanding the causes, the conduct, and the outcomes of the 1998-2000 inter-state war. The case-study provides a contribution to the development of a comparative perspective on the relationship between territory and the causation, conduct and outcomes of intra-state and inter-state wars in Africa and in other regions. My contribution is to the reflection on the challenges of globalization to the territorial state and particularly to understanding the significance of territory for the survival of the modem sovereign state in Africa. The adherence to uti possidetis and the non interference norms coupled with de facto porous borders is one of the most challenging questions facing African states. The findings of the research highlight the value-added of the case- study to the debates on the general transformation and on the more specific patterns of warfare in Africa, the dynamics of state formation in Africa and the region’s security dynamics. 3 Acknowledgements This thesis is dedicated to the memory of Dr. Dominique Jacquin-Berdal (1966-2006). The most rewarding experience of the PhD was the unique privilege to work under her supervision. My greatest debt of gratitude goes to Professor James Mayall; his patience, generosity and deep knowledge of the region prevented me from failing to complete the PhD after the tragic loss of my supervisor. I would like to thank the institutions which provided me with indispensable funding: the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) and the International Relations Cabinet for Science and High Education (GRICES) of the Portuguese Ministry for Science and High Education, the British Council for the award of a Chevening Scholarsip and the Department of International Relations at the LSE for invaluable financial support for fieldwork endeavours. I would like to thank the Centre of African Studies in Lisbon, particularly Professor Franz-Wilhelm Heimer, Professor Joao Gomes Cravinho and Professor Manuel Joao Ramos for their unfaltering support since the onset of the PhD. Due to reasons of anonymity and confidentiality I will not be able to thank those who made an invaluable contribution to the undertaking of field work in Ethiopia, Eritrea and in Britain. My heartfelt gratitude goes to them for their trust, generosity and for sharing their knowledge with me. The Portuguese Ambassador in Ethiopia, Dr. Luis Cristina de Barros, and his wife Maria do Castelo, Sr. Maria Graga de Almeida, Ge Lambiza, and, finally, Joao and Alexandra Jorge provided me with all the support that I needed while in Ethiopia. Their friendship is a cherished gift. My colleagues challenging questions in the North-South Workshop, convened by Professor James Mayall at the LSE, are at the heart of the evolution of the thesis. I would like to thank in particular my colleagues in the learning process of Amharic in the Course convened by Professor David Appleyard at SOAS. My gratitude is extended to our class teacher Mr. Yoseph Mengistu. Finally, I would like to thank the participants in the North East Africa Seminar, convened by Professor Wendy James at the ISCA, University of Oxford, for their inspiring work. A special word of gratitude goes to my students who read ‘The Structure of International Society’ in 2006. And, of course, I am particularly thankful for the support of the staff at the LSE Library. I would like to thank those at Goodenough College, in particular Fr. Casimir and the Warden of London House, Mr. Chris Wright, who provide postgraduate students with a collegial community and home in Mecklenburgh Square. I would like to thank especially my friends who helped me through the final stages and in those moments when the end of this journey seemed like a mirage: Nicola Casarini, Stacy Closson, Annika Bolten, Eva Gross, Page Wilson, Melanie Khamis, Jafri Abdul-Jalil, Conrad Heine, Sarah Sabry, Maria Folque, Fernando Florencio and Filipa Guadalupe. Finally, I am deeply indebted to my parents, Francisco Dias and Rosalia Quirino, without whose influence and support I would never have been impelled to understanding this war. The final words of acknowledgement are to my brothers: Francisco Dias, Francisco Jose, Francisco Alexandre and Francisco Pedro. For me they will always remain Xiquinho, Kiki, Kikas and Kiko, and I will say thank you. 4 Table of Contents Abstract..................................................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................. 4 Table of Contents .....................................................................................................................5 List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... 8 List of Figures ..........................................................................................................................9 List of Maps ........................................................................................................................... 10 Acronyms ................................................................................................................................11 Chapter 1: Introduction .........................................................................................................17 1.1 Boundaries, War and Nationalism ........................................................................... 19 1.2 Focus and Scope of the thesis ...................................................................................21 1.3 Literature Limitations and Theoretical Assumptions ........................................... 23 1.3.1 Contemporary armed conflicts: Civil and New W ars....................................23 1.3.2 Globalization, the Transformation of Warfare and Implications for the Territorial Sovereign State .......................................................................................... 27 1.3.3 Inter-state disputes and wars over territory in A frica ..................................34 1.3.4 War and the Process of State Formation ..........................................................36 1.4 Methodological Approach ........................................................................................39 1.5 Structure of the Thesis...............................................................................................42 Chapter 2: Causes of the 1998-2000 war between Eritrea and Ethiopia .......................45 2.1 On the Origins of the War: Looking at Causation .................................................45 2.2 Overview of the studies ............................................................................................ 47 2.3 On the crisis that triggered the conflict....................................................................50 2.4 The causes of the 1998-2000 W ar ...........................................................................53