FEWS NET Ethiopia Trip Report Summary Activity Name: Belg 2015 Mid-term WFP and FEWS NET Joint assessment Reported by: Zerihun Mekuria (FEWS NET) and Muluye Meresa (WFP_Mekelle), Dates of travel: 20 to 22 April 2015 Area Visited: Ofla, Raya Alamata and Raya Azebo Woredas in South Tigray zones Reporting date: 05 May 2015 Highlights of the findings: Despite very few shower rains in mid-January, the onset of February to May Belg 2015 rains delayed by more than six weeks in mid-March and most Belg receiving areas received four to five days rains with amount ranging low to heavy. It has remained drier and warmer since 3rd decade of March for more than one month. Most planting has been carried out in mid-March except in few pocket areas in the highlands that has planted in January. About 54% of the normal Belg area has been covered with Belg crops. Planted crops are at very vegetative stage with significant seeds remained aborted in the highlands. While in the lowlands nearly entire field planted with crop is dried up or wilted. Dryness in the Belg season has also affected the land preparation and planting for long cycle sorghum. Although the planting window for sorghum not yet over, prolonged dryness will likely lead farmers to opt for planting low yielding sorghum variety. Average Meher 2014 production has improved livestock feed availability. The crop residue reserve from the Meher harvest is not yet exhausted. Water availability for livestock is normal except in five to seven kebeles in Raya Azebo woreda that has faced some water shortages for livestock. Livestock body conditions are normal. Market supply for both livestock and crop is stable. Market price for major staple food items (sorghum and maize) is showing a declining trend compared to last year and recent months. On the other hand, market price for other crops are increasing compared to last year, in particular prices for pulses is showing a significant increase. 2015 emergency food has never been dispatched/ distributed so far to the beneficiaries. Emergency case load for each woreda is notified and targeting is underway in the visited woredas. However, it is learnt that targeting is subject to error by addressing non identified areas during the seasonal assessment and failing to apply full family targeting guideline. 1 Weather condition: February to May Belg rainfall is normally starts during the first week of February and extends up to the first week of May with mid March to Mid-April records the peak rainfall in the season. However, the amount and temporal and spatial distribution of the current Belg rains until the 2nd dekad of April 2015 was below average compared to normal and last year. Most Belg growing woredas received light shower rains in early January 2015 for about two to three days which was erratic with uneven spatial distribution. These rains were insufficient for planting and land preparation except for few pocket areas in Ofla and Endamehoni Woredas. After unusual prolonged dry spell for more than a month, rain resumed between 20 to 25th of March which is better in amount and distribution compared to the previous month. Although the amount varies from low rains to heavy, most of the areas in Southern Tigray received three to four days of rainfall during this period. The exceptions are five Kebeles in Raya Azebo Woreda that had no rainfall and remained dry. It has remained warmer and drier since late March in most parts of Southern Tigray Belg receiving areas. Rain (dataset RFE2) for area TIGRAY ~ SOUTHERN ~ RAYA AZEBO January dekad 1, 2015 To December dekad 3, 2015 55 50 45 40 35 30 mm 25 20 15 10 5 0 J1 J2 J3 F1 F2 F3 M1 M2 M3 A1 A2 A3 M1 M2 M3 J1 J2 J3 J1 J2 J3 A1 A2 A3 S1 S2 S3 O1 O2 O3 N1 N2 N3 D1 D2 D3 Dekads in the year Rain Actual Data Rain Normal Data Seasonal agricultural performance: The total area planned for the current Belg planting season in the southern and South Eastern zones is about 20900 hectares (ha), but the actual area covered by different crops up to 23rd April 2015 is only 11291.8 ha (accounting for 54% of the planned). Most 2 of the land is planted using the rainfall received in March covering Teff in low lands (Raya Alamata and Raya Azebo) and Barley, wheat and pulses in highlands (Offla and Endamohoni). Detail area planned and planted until 23 April 2015 is shown in Table 1 below. Table 1. Belg 2015 planned and planted, as of 23 April 2015 No Woreda Plan Ach % 1 EmbaAlaje 1000 0 0 2 Raya Azebo 8000 4426 55.325 3 Raya Alamata 6600 5400 81.8182 4 Offla 2019 1334 66.0723 5 EndaMekhoni 930 131.75 14.1667 6 HintaloWajirat 2351 0 0 Total 20900 11291.8 54.0275 Source: Woreda and region EWRFS Planting of long cycle sorghum is usually takes place from 20 April to 17 May 2015. However, this year no long cycle sorghum planting undertaken so far. Farmers just completed the land preparation for sorghum planting and waiting for adequate moisture for planting. The current drier condition might force the farmers to miss the planting window for their major long cycle variety (Degalet). Farmers explained that they continue trying planting sorghum until beginning of June but with a progressively low yielding variety. Belg 2014, Ofla woreda, 16 June 2014 The same farm in Belg 2015, Ofla woreda, 21 April 2015 3 Water pasture and livestock condition: There is relatively better pasture and feed availability in all Belg growing woredas compared to last year and other years, attributed to normal Kiremt rains in 2014 that improved pasture and crop residue availability. Moreover, With the exception five PAs of Raya Azebo (Hawolti, Tsegae,Wargeba. Ebo and, no major problem regarding water availability for livestock are reported. Physical conditions and productivity of livestock as well is rated as normal. No livestock disease outbreak in all Belg producing woredas has been reported. Cattle in Raya Alamata woreda, 23 April 2015 Market condition: Due to average Meher 2015 harvest, market supply is normal for both staple crops and livestock. Market price for staple foods (sorghum and maize) has dropped significantly since September through March. For instance, in Raya Azebo woreda sorghum price in March 2015 has declined by 51% and 30 % compared to September 2014 and the same period last year respectively. Prices for maize and sorghum in Raya Azebo woreda in March 2015 has declined by 35and 18 percent respectively compared to March 2014. In addition, teff price declined by about six and 24 percent compared to September and the same period last year respectively. The reason for these price declines is attributed to higher local supply for sorghum and the observed restriction of trade only for trader unions within the woreda. 4 Figure 1: Sorghum price in Alamarta market, Alamata woreda It is also important to note that pulses (in particular lentils) prices are sharply increasing due below average harvest caused by pest and disease infestation. Livestock price shows some fluctuations between months while labour wage rate increased compared to last year. Figure 2: Market price of sheep and goat in offla and Raya Azebo woredas Health and nutrition: No major health and nutrition is reported in the area, except for few malnutrition cases in Kebeles along the border of Waghumra zone in Ofla woreda. Responses: Normally all the visited woredas should have received three months emergency relief assistance taking in to account the first month allocation as February 2015. However, all Belg Producing Woredas have neither received cash/food nor notification or transfer 5 until the end of April. All visited woredas have started targeting to identify the beneficiaries. However, except Alamata woreda, other woredas failed to apply affected area and full family targeting. On the other hand, food/cash distribution of PSNP is progressing well and all Belg woredas have distributed three to four months cash/food until the end of April as indicated in Table 2 below. Table 2. Status of PSNP and Relief resource dispatch and distribution in 2015 Programm/Wor Number of transfer received/dispatched Number of transfer distributed eda Cash food Total Cash Food total A. Relief 1. Offla 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 RayaAlamata 0 0 0 0 0 0 3. R/Azobo 0 0 0 0 0 0 B. PSNP 1. Offla 4 0 4 4 0 4 2 RayaAlamata 4 0 4 3 0 3 Fourth on progress 3. RayaAzobo 2 2 3 1 2 3 Fourth on progress Over all Food Security Situation: Despite the expected below average total Belg 2015 production, the slightly average Meher 2014 production in southern Tigray enabled food availability and access to be stable. On top of that, the decline in the market price of major staple food compared to last year has favoured households purchasing capacity and helped household’s food security to be stable. PSNP resource transfers also improved poor household’s cash access for staple food purchases. However, failure in the Belg 2015 crop production and an exhaustion of Meher 2014 stock has sparked a concern that the poor households would be in a stressed level of food insecurity in the coming May to September pick lean period. 6.