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S P E C I a L R E P O S P E C I A L R E P O R T FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO ETHIOPIA 24 February 2006 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS, ROME WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME, ROME - ii - This report has been prepared by Mr. W.I. Robinson and Mr. A.T. Lieberg and Ms. L. Trebbi, under the responsibility of the FAO and WFP Secretariats with information from official and other sources. Since conditions may change rapidly, please contact the undersigned for further information if required. Henri Josserand Holdbrook Arthur Chief, GIEWS, FAO Regional Director, ODK WFP Fax: 0039-06-5705-4495 Fax: 00256-31242500 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Please note that this Special Report is also available on the Internet as part of the FAO World Wide Web (www.fao.org) at the following URL address: http://www.fao.org/giews/ The Special Alerts/Reports can also be received automatically by E-mail as soon as they are published, by subscribing to the GIEWS/Alerts report ListServ. To do so, please send an E-mail to the FAO-Mail-Server at the following address: [email protected], leaving the subject blank, with the following message: subscribe GIEWSAlertsWorld-L To be deleted from the list, send the message: unsubscribe GIEWSAlertsWorld-L Please note that it is now possible to subscribe to regional lists to only receive Special Reports/Alerts by region: Africa, Asia, Europe or Latin America (GIEWSAlertsAfrica-L, GIEWSAlertsAsia-L, GIEWSAlertsEurope-L and GIEWSAlertsLA-L). These lists can be subscribed to in the same way as the worldwide list. - iii - TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abbreviations and Acronyms....................................................................................................................... v Mission Highlights......................................................................................................................................... 1 1. OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................................... 1 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT ...................................................................................................... 2 2.1 Macro-economic situation ................................................................................................................ 2 2.2 Population and poverty .................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Food security and vulnerability......................................................................................................... 6 2.3.1 Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)...................................................................... 7 2.3.2 Voluntary resettlement programme .................................................................................. 9 2.4 Agricultural sector policies ............................................................................................................... 9 2.4.1 Agricultural credit ..............................................................................................................10 2.4.2 Fertilizer balance...............................................................................................................10 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2005 ........................................................................................................11 3.1 General ..........................................................................................................................................11 3.2 Rainfall ..........................................................................................................................................11 3.3 Area planted .....................................................................................................................................12 3.4 Factors affecting yields ....................................................................................................................16 3.5 Other crops.......................................................................................................................................18 3.6 Livestock ..........................................................................................................................................19 3.7 Cereal and pulse production forecast ..............................................................................................20 3.8 Belg harvest .....................................................................................................................................23 4. CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION......................................................................................24 4.1 Marketing system .............................................................................................................................24 4.2 Price policies ....................................................................................................................................25 4.3 Price development............................................................................................................................26 4.4 National grain supply/demand balance in 2006 ...............................................................................28 4.5 Risk factors that may affect the national grain supply/demand balance in 2006.............................30 4.6 Emergency agricultural support measures in 2006..........................................................................30 5. HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITY AND EMERGENCY FOOD SECURITY NEEDS ASSESSMENT .....................................................................................................................30 5.1 Food security and nutrition background .............................................................................................30 5.1.1 Pre-crisis household food security situation .....................................................................30 5.1.2 General nutrition status of vulnerable populations ...........................................................31 5.1.3 Links between HIV/AIDS, nutrition and food security.......................................................31 5.1.4 Background of current crisis .............................................................................................32 5.1.5 Relevant Government policies and actions on food security crisis ..................................32 5.1.6 Previous emergency assistance.......................................................................................33 5.2 Needs assessment .............................................................................................................................33 5.3 Current vulnerability and coping status ..............................................................................................34 5.3.1 Area and population groups affected or likely to be affected ...........................................34 5.3.2 Crisis impact on livelihoods ..............................................................................................35 5.3.3 Impact on nutrition and health ..........................................................................................35 5.3.4 Strategies and scope for coping .......................................................................................36 5.3.5 Food security outlook in the ensuing crop year ................................................................36 5.4 Estimation of food gaps of affected populations.................................................................................36 5.4.1 Figures of populations generally affected by food crisis...................................................36 5.4.2 Figures of affected population requiring assistance, by region ........................................36 5.4.3 Description of targeted populations ..................................................................................37 5.4.4 Quantification of the food gaps .........................................................................................37 - iv - Page 5.5 Possible strategies for assistance ......................................................................................................38 5.5.1 Food assistance: rationale, magnitude and phasing ........................................................38 5.5.2 Non-food assistance: rationale and potential interventions..............................................38 5.5.3 Linking crisis assistance with longer-term developmental solutions ................................38 5.5.4 Scope for local purchases ................................................................................................39 5.6 Risks and constraints .........................................................................................................................39 5.6.1 Capacity constraints..........................................................................................................39 5.6.2 Logistics implications ........................................................................................................39 5.7 Future and next steps.........................................................................................................................40 5.7.1 Follow-on assessments ....................................................................................................40 5.7.2 Food security monitoring on crisis-related elements ........................................................40
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