Why Do Some Insurgent Groups Agree to Ceasefires While Others Do Not? A Within-Case Analysis of Burma/Myanmar, 1948-2011 Alexander Dukalskis University College Dublin
[email protected] Final version published in Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(10): 841-863. Please cite final published version of article. Abstract: This article uses Burma/Myanmar from 1948 to 2011 as a within-case analysis to explore why some armed insurgent groups agree to ceasefires while others do not. Analyzing 33 armed groups it finds that longer-lived groups were less likely to agree to ceasefires with the military government between 1989 and 2011. The article uses this within-case variation to understand what characteristics would make an insurgent group more or less likely to agree to a ceasefire. The article identifies four armed groups for more in-depth qualitative analysis to understand the roles of the administration of territory, ideology, and legacies of distrust with the state as drivers of the decision to agree to or reject a ceasefire. Running head: Ceasefires in Burma/Myanmar 1 Between independence from Britain in 1948 and a tentative transition to a less militaristic regime in 2011, the central government of Burma/Myanmar had to contend with dozens of armed insurgent groups. Over time new groups formed, old ones were defeated or gave up, and existing ones changed demands, allied with each other, splintered from parent insurgencies or changed form. During this period the central government presented itself to the armed insurgents in at least four different forms: a weak parliamentary regime (1948-1958), a military ‘caretaker’ government (1958-1960), a socialist-military regime (1962-1988) and a military junta (1988-2011).